WLI

Cattle futures closed lower Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.43 lower, except for $1.05 higher in spot May.

Week to week on Friday, Cattle futures gave back much of the previous week’s gains with Live Cattle an average of $4.04 lower and Feeder Cattle futures down an average of $8.11. Late-week pressure included chatter and algorithm fodder about the DOJ investigation into beef packers.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $256/cwt., $1-$5 higher in Kansas at $255-$260, $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at mostly $260 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $260. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 higher in Nebraska at mainly $402 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $400-$403.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.45 higher Friday afternoon at $388.39/cwt. Select was 59¢ higher at $385.01.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 527,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 34,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 9.7 million head was 1 million head fewer (-9.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 8.7 billion pounds was 641.4 million pounds less (-6.9%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, buoyed by optimism about next week’s trade talks with China and perhaps some early positioning of next Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 17¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher. Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Week to week on Friday, Corn futures were an average of 7¢ lower through the front six contracts.       

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks and positive jobs data.

Total non-farm payroll employment grew by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls in April rose by 6¢ to $37.41. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 440 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 61¢ to $1.61 higher through the front six contracts. Those contracts were an average of $3.06 lower week to week on Friday.

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Wholesale beef values have yet to jump with the seasonal spark expected this time of year.

“There tends to be a push for steak cuts as Memorial Day weekend approaches, but the rib and loin primal values are not indicating restaurants, grocers or food service chasing product to stock the meat counter,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “This may mean nothing at all since beef prices remain elevated, but it could be a cause for concern as consumers are probably spending a higher percentage of their discretionary dollar on fuel instead of food. Cattle and beef markets are not immune to outside influences, and this may be what the market is experiencing.”

With that said, domestic consumer beef demand continues historically high. For instance, the Livestock Marketing Information (LMIC) retail all fresh beef demand index for the first quarter was up 10 points year over year at 147, the highest for the series going back to 2000.

“As the beef demand index reached a high for the series, the first-quarter all fresh retail beef prices were a record at $9.55 per pound, up $1.25 per pound (+15%) from the first quarter of 2025,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

For broader perspective, the first-quarter LMIC pork demand index was 1 point lower year over year at 93, the lowest level since 2017. The average first-quarter retail pork price was reported at $4.91 per pound, fractionally less than the prior year.

“Beef demand strengthened during the first quarter of 2026 while pork demand softened, but elevated fuel prices during the second quarter could threaten beef and pork demand over the summer grilling season,” LMIC analysts say.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday but off session lows with no obvious driver.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.25 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.87 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $256/cwt., $3-$6 higher in Nebraska at mostly $258-$260 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $255-$260. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 higher in Nebraska at mainly $402 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $400-$403.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.68 lower Thursday afternoon at $386.94/cwt. Select was $5.21 lower at $384.42.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower on Thursday, led by reduced weather premium in hard red winter wheat.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 19¢ to 22¢ lower. Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices turned lower Thursday, as Crude Oil prices gained on resurgent tensions between the U.S. and Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 313 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 10¢ lower to 53¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Narrow, sometimes negative, daily Choice-Select spreads in recent weeks prompt plenty of pondering. Undoubtedly, supply is part of the story with so little Select available relative to Choice and higher grading carcasses.

On the demand side, Charley Martinez, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee says , “Given the recent rise in fuel costs, income for other items, and weekly spending at stores has likely taken a hit, which tends to push consumers toward more price-sensitive food choices and away from higher-priced beef items that rely on Choice-level marbling. As a result, downstream buyers have placed less emphasis on quality premiums, compressing the spread even when supply conditions might otherwise support it.”

At the same time, Martinez explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, “Higher fuel costs raise transportation and operating expenses throughout the beef supply chain, limiting packers’ and retailers’ willingness to pay up for higher grades. Together, possibly weaker consumer demand for premium beef and rising fuel-related costs help explain why the 2026 spread remains subdued, signaling diminished incentives for quality premiums relative to periods like 2025 when consumer demand conditions were stronger.”

Cattle futures lost early steam Wednesday but closed narrowly mixed to higher, supported by bullish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 21¢ lower to an average of 37¢ higher. 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 69¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $252-$257/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $255 elsewhere. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $400.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.72 lower Wednesday afternoon at $389.62/cwt. Select was $2.61 lower at $389.63.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower on Wednesday as Crude Oil prices pulled back.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 9¢ lower. Corn futures were 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 17¢ lower through Near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday, as Crude Oil prices retreated and chatter increased about a possible end to the U.S.-Iran war. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 612 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 105 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 512 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $4.95 to $6.77 lower through the front six contracts.

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Record-high beef variety meat values led U.S. beef exports in March, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef variety meat exports totaled 29,062 metric tons (mt) for the month, up 24% from a year earlier and the largest since 2017. Variety meat export value increased 50% to $135.6 million.

However, total March beef exports of 97,731 mt, were 11% less than a year ago, largely due to the ongoing lockout by China. Total beef export value fell 8% to $844.7 million. Export value in March equated to $456.56 per head of fed slaughter.

Through the first quarter, beef and beef variety meat exports totaled 275,355 mt, down 11% from a year ago, while value fell 7% to $2.35 million. Excluding China from these results, exports were 3% higher than a year ago in volume and increased 9% in value. The January-March average export value per head of fed slaughter was 2% more year over year at $431.66.

“While China has now been absent for more than year, the U.S. industry is making strides in other markets,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The supply situation makes it difficult to grow export volumes, but exports are commanding strong prices. Expanding beef variety meat demand is especially critical, as this makes such a key contribution to the value of every animal.”

Pork exports totaled 285,567 mt in March, up 6% from a year ago, the largest in five years and the third largest on record. Export value increased 4% to $803.2 million, the second highest on record, trailing only April 2021.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday on fundamental strength and more bullish outside markets. Reports of early steady to higher cash fed cattle prices were also supportive.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.42 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.88 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $252-$257/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $255 elsewhere. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $400.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 78¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $392.34/cwt. Select was $1.64 higher at $392.24.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower on Tuesday with likely profit taking, producer selling and lower Crude Oil prices.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 9¢ lower. Corn futures were 4¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 13¢ lower through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, as Crude Oil prices cooled and quarterly corporate earnings reports continued to be mostly positive. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 365 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 258 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.79 to $3.84 lower through the front six contracts.

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Producer sentiment declined in April as concerns about rising input costs, tighter availability and global instability continued to weigh on the agricultural outlook, according to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index was 6 points lower month to month at 121, while the Current Conditions Index declined 11 points and the Future Expectations Index dropped 4 points. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from April 13-17.

“Producers are still under pressure from high input costs, and this month we observed a slight rise in concerns about fertilizer availability,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Simultaneously, the impact of current events on fertilizer and energy markets increases global uncertainty, adding to the existing difficulties farmers face as they plan for the future.”

Only 15% of producers indicated that financial conditions improved in April compared to the same period last year. When looking at the year ahead, 28% of respondents cited expectations of worse financial performance, compared with 25% expecting better financial performance.

April’s survey also examined the impact of current events on farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect less net farm income this year. Among producers who planted corn in 2025, about half expect corn breakeven prices to increase by up to 6% in 2026, 14% expect increases of 6% to 9%, and 37% anticipate increases of 10% or more.

Optimism about the direction of the U.S. economy also declined, with 57% of producers indicating the country is headed in the ‘right direction,’ down from 65% in March.

Cattle futures closed lower again Monday with follow-through selling supported by more bearish outside markets.  

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.84 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.60 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $9 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $255/cwt., $6-$9 higher in Nebraska at $252-$257 and $9 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $255. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $14 higher at mainly $400.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $8.84 higher at $255.02. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $13.08 higher at $399.08.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.45 higher Monday afternoon at $391.56/cwt. Select was $3.55 higher at $380.60.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher on Monday.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 20¢ higher through near Nov, boosted by Soybean oil prices and hopes on upcoming trade talks with China.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, as Crude Oil prices gained along with U.S.-Iran tension. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 557 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 46 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.96 to $3.97 higher through the front six contracts.

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Drought continues across the majority of United States and are more widespread year over year, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

For the week of April 28, 61.7% of the continental U.S. was experiencing moderate to exceptional drought, which was 16.9% more than the first week of this year and 24.7% more than the same time last year. Another 13.7% was abnormally dry.

Moreover, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the Drought Severity Coverage Index (DSCI) — calculated from the Drought Monitor categories — is 202, the largest value for the month since 2000.

“Not only has the DSCI never reached a value of 200 at this time of year, the DSCI for the U.S. has only exceeded a level of 200 a total of 26 times in 1,374 weeks since the Drought Monitor began,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “The DSCI has averaged 108, ranging from 11 to 215 over the last 26+ years. The current values over 200 are more than two standard deviations above average and have occurred less than 2% of the time in the history of the Drought Monitor.” 

More specific to beef cattle producers, Peel says more than 79% of the beef cow herd in the 26 states accounting for 88% of the beef cow inventory at the beginning of the year, are currently impacted by drought.

Moving into May, Peel adds that drought conditions take on a new urgency with pasture and hay production in the next few weeks determining cattle production potential for much of the year. “It is clear that drought is a significant threat to beef cattle production and potential herd rebuilding in 2026,” he says.

As it is, beef cow herd culling — a key part to halting herd liquidation — dropped sharply starting in 2023 and reached a cyclically low level of 8.4% last year, according to Peel.

“Thus far in 2026, beef cow slaughter is down over 17% year over year, a level that would lead to an annual herd culling rate of roughly 7.0 if it persists for the balance of the year,” Peel says. “This would be a record-low culling rate and would certainly help stabilize the beef cow herd. However, current drought conditions may cause cow slaughter to increase and lead to additional herd liquidation.”  

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.