WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade developed in Kansas Thursday, with live prices mostly $1 higher than last week at $119/cwt.; light to moderate trade and moderate demand.

Cattle futures closed marginally mixed.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 24¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 lower Thursday afternoon at $225.60/cwt. Select was $2.19 lower at $208.12.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed marginally higher on mixed news Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

*******************************

Although analysts with Rabo AgriFinance expect fed cattle prices next year to mirror those of the last couple of years, they say there are two possibilities that could give them a boost.

One is a resolution in U.S.-China trade talks, which they say would allow for increased pork exports to China and elevate all protein prices. The other has to do with disruption in global animal protein trade, due to African Swine Fever.

“As a larger share of beef from Australia and New Zealand go to China, it is forcing a reduction in the quantity of manufacturing beef coming to the U.S.,” explain Rabo AgriFinance analysts, in that organization’s RaboResearch Q4 Beef Quarterly. “As a result prices of Australian and New Zealand 90% lean trimmings delivered to the U.S. currently hold a $54/cwt. (USD) premium to domestic lean trimmings. This is forcing U.S. quick service burger restaurants to look for domestic alternatives for supplies, supporting U.S. cattle and beef prices. This situation is not expected to be quickly resolved and will be an interesting market development to watch during the coming year.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade perked up Wednesday, but too few transactions to trend, according to USDA reports.

There were 1,189 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction, with 860 head selling for a weighted average price of $118.36/cwt. for delivery at 1-9 days. That was three lots from Kansas and Nebraska.

Cattle futures sagged lower Wednesday, perhaps pressured by seasonally declining wholesale beef values and the lack of cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.06 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.56 lower.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.20 lower Wednesday afternoon at $226.95/cwt. Select was $2.00 lower at $210.31.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then mostly fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Sep ’21 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by a bounce in energy and positive rhetoric about the U.S.-China trade talks.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) closed $2.02-$2.33 higher through the front five contracts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 146 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 46 points.

*******************************

The Upper House of the Japanese Parliament approved the U.S.-Japan trade agreement yesterday, which will greatly improve access for U.S. red meat in Japan, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

“With the U.S.-Japan trade agreement now approved by the Japanese Parliament, the U.S. beef and pork industries look forward to expanded opportunities in Japan, which is already the largest value destination for U.S. pork and beef exports (combined export value in 2018 was $3.7 billion),” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “This agreement is one of the biggest developments in the history of red meat trade, as no international market delivers greater benefits to U.S. farmers and ranchers, and to the entire U.S. supply chain, than Japan.”

USMEF’s projected impact on U.S. beef and pork exports to Japan:

With tariff rates mirroring those imposed on major competitors, USMEF’s forecast for 2020 is for U.S. beef and pork exports to Japan to reach $2.3 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.

USMEF projects that by 2025, U.S. red meat exports to Japan will approach $5 billion—roughly $2.8 billion for U.S. beef and more than $2 billion for U.S. pork—as consumption of U.S. red meat increases due to greater access for Japanese consumers and the U.S. gaining market share.

Moreover, the agreement also opens new opportunities for value-added and processed red meat products, with tariffs on these products phasing to zero, which contributes to the overall growth in U.S. exports to the high-value Japanese market.

Cattle futures mainly hovered on Tuesday, awaiting cash direction and in the face of a plunge on Wall Street.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from 20¢ lower to 25¢ higher.

Other than 2¢ and 10¢ lower in two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.46 lower Tuesday afternoon at $230.15/cwt. Select was 67¢ lower at $212.31.

After 1¢ lower and fractionally lower in the two front contracts, Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher through Sep ’21 and then 3¢ higher.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower xTuesday, expanding recent losses. Primary angst seemed to revolve around, what else, but U.S.-China trade talks. This time it was investors interpreting comments from President Trump to mean it less likely that phase one of the deal will be concluded before new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports begin Dec. 15.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 280 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 20 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 47 points.

*******************************

“The wide spread between Choice and Select beef cutout values continues to send a signal for more Choice beef,” says Josh Maples, Extension economist at Mississippi State University. “The spread has been near or above $20/cwt. since June. The average weekly spread in October was more than double the historical seasonal average; November was seasonally large, too. For 17 of the 21 weeks from July 6th to Nov. 23, the weekly average Choice-Select spread was the largest for that week of the year over the past two decades.”

In the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, Maples explains supply is the most visible driver, with Choice-grade supplies 1-2% below year-ago levels since June. For the same months, he adds that Choice supplies were also at or below the five-year average.

“Demand for particular beef cuts also plays an important role,” Maples explains. “A wider Choice-Select spread is typically expected in October and November, largely due to seasonal demand for Choice ribs and loins (i.e. the middle meats) during the holidays. For example, Choice ribeye prices usually increase due to seasonal demand. Wholesale Choice ribeye prices hit just over $10.00/lb. a few weeks ago and continue to hover around $9.60. This is compared to a 2018 high of $9.15/lb. Choice rib and loin primal values are 4% and 7% above a year ago, respectively, while the Select rib primal value is only up 1% and the loin primal value is the same as a year ago.”

The 5-area direct average steer price last week was $118.21/cwt. on a live basis, which was $2.25 higher than the previous week. The average dressed price of $186.83 was $3.24 higher. Total volume of just 51,310 head, pressured by both the holiday and winter storms suggests packers need to be in a buying mood this week.

Cattle futures began the week narrowly mixed, amid relatively light trade, with little urgency one direction or the other.

Except for unchanged and 5¢ higher in the middle of the board, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 23¢ lower.

Except for unchanged to 12¢ lower in the front three contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and sharply higher on Select with moderate to good demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ higher Monday afternoon at $232.61/cwt. Select was $2.64 higher at $212.98.

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower through Nov ’20 and then most fractionally lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, pressured by weak manufacturing data and ongoing uncertainty surrounding a U.S.-China trade deal.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector declined in November, according to the closely watched Purchasing Managers Index® from the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM). Month to month, it declined two percentage points in November to 48.1%

“Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue. Among the six big industry sectors, Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products remains the strongest, while Fabricated Metal Products is the weakest. Overall, sentiment this month is neutral regarding near-term growth,” says Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 268 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 97 points.

*******************************

Although recent winter storms may not be widespread enough to cause noticeable fed cattle market reactions, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says they may delay cattle finishing and disrupt slaughter flows in some regions.

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains the storms may also ensure the seasonal peak is in for carcass weights.

“Steer and heifer carcass weights pushed above year-ago levels the past few weeks with the latest steer carcass weights at 912 lbs. compared to 900 lbs. last year and heifer carcasses at 841 lbs., up from 836 lbs. one year ago on the same date. However, for the year to date, steer carcass weights are down 3.3 lbs. and heifer carcasses are down 4.4 lbs. An early storm like this may set the stage for a long period of feedlot production challenges with impacts persisting and accumulating through the winter.”

Of course, widespread severe weather also can impact demand.

“Winter storms may disrupt transportation and the flow of perishable products to markets,” Peel says. “Though people continue to eat during storms, travel and business disruptions often reduce restaurant traffic and power disruptions may reduce meat demand as consumers hunker down and get through the storm with minimal cooking and more use of prepared and ready-to-eat products.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was mainly $2-$3 higher on a live basis at $118/cwt. in Kansas, $118-$120 in Nebraska and $117-$118 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $187.

Cattle futures softened Friday, amid light holiday trade and month-end positioning.

Other than unchanged to 10¢ higher in the last three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ lower (15¢ lower at the back to $1.05 lower in spot Jan).

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 12¢ lower Friday afternoon at $232.12/cwt. Select was 30¢ lower at $210.34.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Jan ’21 and then most unchanged to fractionally lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, amid holiday-shortened trade and likely month-end profit taking and book squaring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 112 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

*******************************

The European Parliament approved the previously announced plan granting the United States a country-specific share of the European Union’s (EU) duty-free high-quality beef quota, according to the US. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Specifically, the U.S. will be able to nearly triple its annual duty-free exports of beef to the EU over the next seven years, with annual duty-free exports expected to grow from $150 million to $420 million when the agreement is fully implemented.

“Approval by the European Parliament keeps this agreement on track for implementation in early 2020, which is outstanding news for the U.S. beef industry and our customers in Europe,” according to a USMEF statement. “Lack of capacity in the duty-free quota has been a source of frustration on both sides of the Atlantic, and a U.S.-specific share of the quota will help ensure that U.S. beef can enter the European market 52 weeks per year, without delay or interruption.”

The EU is one of the world’s highest value destinations for U.S. beef.