WLI

Cattle futures gained Thursday, supported by steady to higher cash prices and a late-day bounce in outside markets.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, Live FOB prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 18¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.18/cwt. Select was $1.26 higher at $295.64.

Corn futures faded the increased yield projections in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 7¢ higher in expiring spot Sep Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, with more optimism later in the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 174 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.46 to $1.87 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA lowered expected five-area direct fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Based on recent price weakness, forecast prices were lowered by $3 in the third quarter to $188/cwt. and by $7 in the fourth quarter to $183 for an annual average of $185.11, which was $3 lower than the previous month’s estimate. Projected prices were lowered in the first quarter next year by $3 to $186 and by $4 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186, which was $5 lower.

Forecast 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production was raised 59 million pounds (+0.2%) to 26.8 billion pounds on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year.

For 2025, beef production was raised 180 million pounds (+0.7%) to 25.6 billion pounds on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.4%) than this year’s estimated production.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 were 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks were reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.10 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with apparent optimism about the potential for higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 87¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $307.36/cwt. Select was $2.63 lower at $294.38.

Corn and Soybean futures edged higher in nearby contracts Wednesday, as traders prepared for Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and further indication of easing inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5% before seasonal adjustment, which was less than expected. However, core inflation, excluding food and fuel, was slightly higher than expected, up 0.3% month to month and 3.2% year over year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 369 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures hovered amid two-sided trading Tuesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 34¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 28¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $308.23/cwt. Select was $1.48 lower at $297.01.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by the yield outlook and weaker crude oil prices.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 20¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 141 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.89 to $2.45 lower through the front six contracts.

More bullish outside markets helped Cattle futures bounce back Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.91 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.87 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $180-$181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $180-$181 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.63 lower at $181.18/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.75 lower at $287.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 89¢ lower Monday afternoon at $308.52/cwt. Select was $2.36 higher at $298.49.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday with apparent short covering providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in spot Sep. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with investors apparently more bullish about the impact of potential interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 484 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 193 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 97¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions continued to lose ground last week with 29% rated Good (23%) or Excellent (6%), according to the USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 8. That was 4% less than the same time last year. On the other side of the scale, 39% was rated in Poor (24%) or Very Poor (15%) condition, the same as a year earlier.

As for row crops, 5% of corn was in the bin, which was 1% more than the same time last year and 25% more than the five-year average. 64% was in Good (48%) or Excellent (16%), compared to 52% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 65% of soybeans were rated as Good (52%) or Excellent (13%) versus 52% a year earlier.

Negative outside markets and softer cash fed cattle prices helped pressure Cattle futures again Friday. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.09 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.30 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $4 lower in Nebraska at $180 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon, at $309.41/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $296.12.

Estimated total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 542,000 was 69,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.4 million head was 926,000 head fewer (-4.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 18 billion pounds was 216.2 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday amid pressure from lower outside markets and wonderments about next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower. However, Corn futures closed an average of 6’2¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week on Friday. That’s an average of about 15¢ higher in those contracts over the past two weeks.

On Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by bearish labor news.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 month to month in August, which was less than expected. In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by

14¢ to $35.21.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 410 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 436 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.46 to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply month to month in August, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108.

“Weakness in the barometer and related indices provide a signal that farmers are concerned about the possibility of extended weakness in farm incomes, similar to what took place from 2015 to 2019,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

August’s survey results indicate a shift among farmers’ primary concerns, with 30% of respondents identifying lower commodity prices as their primary concern, compared to 33% who cited high input costs. At the same time last year, 20% pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern.

“Farmers have also become less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years,” Mintert says. “The percentage of farmers who think farmland values could decline within the upcoming year has been rising, which is consistent with the weak outlook for financial conditions. The weak capital investment index reading suggests farmers are going to pull back on capital expenditures.”

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31, matching its all-time low.

The latest survey was conducted from Aug. 12-16, 2024.