WLI

About WLI

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far WLI has created 1499 blog entries.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 27, 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up generally steady to firm last week, with live prices in the Southern Plains and Nebraska at $124/cwt. and at $124-$126 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $199 in Nebraska and mostly $198-$199 in the western Corn Belt.

Cattle futures continued lower, to a lesser degree than the previous session, helped along by weaker outside markets.

Other than an average of 13¢ higher in three contracts, Live Cattle futures close an average of 24¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ lower. 

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ lower Friday afternoon at $214.49/cwt. Select was 50¢ lower at $210.70.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ lower through Nov ‘21 and then mostly 1¢ higher. 

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 27, 2020 2020-01-25T14:37:22-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 27., 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up generally steady to firm last week, with live prices in the Southern Plains and Nebraska at $124/cwt. and at $124-$126 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $199 in Nebraska and mostly $198-$199 in the western Corn Belt.

Cattle futures continued lower, to a lesser degree than the previous session, helped along by weaker outside markets.

Other than an average of 13¢ higher in three contracts, Live Cattle futures close an average of 24¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ lower. 

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ lower Friday afternoon at $214.49/cwt. Select was 50¢ lower at $210.70.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ lower through Nov ‘21 and then mostly 1¢ higher. 

*******************************

Growing fears about coronavirus and its potential impact on the fragile global economy pressured equity markets Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 170 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 87 points.

*******************************

Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral, given the fact that estimates basically mirrored pre-report expectations.

December placements in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity were 1.83 million head, which was 3.45% (+61,000 head) more year over year. That was 0.15% more than average estimates ahead of the report.

Marketings in December of 1.83 million head were 5.34% (+93,000 head) more than a year earlier. In terms of placement weights, 50.32% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 38.73% weighed 700-899 lbs. and 10.94% weighed more than 900 lbs.

Cattle on feed Jan. 1 of 11.96 million head were 2.29% (+268,000 head) more than the same date a year earlier. That was 0.19% more than average estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 27., 2020 2020-01-25T14:34:59-06:00

Cattle Current Weekly Highlights—Week ending Jan. 24, 2020

Except in the Southeast, calf and feeder cattle prices faltered during the holiday-shortened week, beneath the weight of sheer volume, weather challenges and a downward trend in Cattle futures.

Steers and heifers traded steady to $2/cwt. higher in the Southeast and steady to $3 lower elsewhere, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Feedlots are filling up to the brim with the large supply of cattle going through sale barns and traded in the country,” explained the AMS reporter on hand for this week’s Superior Livestock video auction. “Demand was good for cattle that can be hedged against the August contract for a premium; moderate to good for others.”

AMS analysts also point out rugged winter weather curtailed auction receipts in some parts of the country.

“In this specific market, it is easy to identify what producers are looking for and that is lighter weight calves that are in thin flesh,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “This does not mean that producers should be selling lightweight and thin-fleshed calves. Doing this would mean that a producer is leaving easy pounds on the table and not marketing those pounds. The current price movement bodes well for the late winter and early spring markets as prices are expected to move even higher. As the market moves toward March, slightly heavier calves will be in a little stronger demand.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.18 lower week to week on Friday ($3.50 to $5.37 lower), with the steepest losses coming on Thursday.

As the week wore on, both equity and futures markets grew more rattled by the spread of novel corona virus, amid fears of how it could impact wheezy global economic growth.

Fed Cattle Prices Continue Steady

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up generally steady to firm last week, with live prices in the Southern Plains and Nebraska at $124/cwt. and at $124-$126 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $199 in Nebraska and mostly $198-$199 in the western Corn Belt.

“There is little to say concerning finished cattle this week, as prices continue to be steady compared to the past several weeks. Alternatively, there is something to say about Live Cattle futures prices,” according to Griffith. “The April Live Cattle contract had been trading above the February contract price, which is expected heading into the spring. However, trade on Thursday sent the April contract price into a nosedive and trading below the February contract. When today’s price is higher than tomorrow’s price the market is telling owners that they want the product now. Thus, feedlots may find it advantageous to pull cattle off feed slightly earlier than anticipated since prices are relatively strong compared to expectations moving forward.”

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.39 lower week to week on Friday ($1.50 to $3.17 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher week to week on Friday at $214.49/cwt. Select was $2.05 lower at $210.70.

“Record high red meat and pork production was reported for the month of

December at 4.73 billion lbs. and 2.44 billion lbs., respectively,” say AMS analysts. “Total preliminary federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter for 2019 is being reported at a record 129.2 million, more than 4% above a year ago and 7% above the previous 3-year average…Cattle Slaughter (FI) was estimated at

647,000 head for the week, 16,000 more than the prior week and 39,000 more than a year ago.” 

According to the monthly USDA Cold Storage report, total pounds of beef in freezers as of Dec. 31 were 1% more than the previous month at 481.01 million lbs., but down 3% from the previous year. Frozen pork supplies were up 1% from the previous month at 580.1 million lbs., which was 15% more than a year earlier.

Cattle on Feed Report Matches Expectations

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report issued Friday should have little market sway, with estimates close to what analysts were expecting, on average.

December placements in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity were 1.83 million head, which was 3.45% more year over year.

Marketings in December of 1.83 million head were 5.34% more than a year earlier.

Cattle on feed Jan. 1 of 11.96 million head were 2.29% more than the same date a year earlier.

Friday to Friday Change

Weekly Auction Receipts

 

Jan. 24 Auction Direct

Video/net

Total
 

220,600

(-60,800)

39,600

(-9,700)

36,800

(-24,900)

297,000

(-95.400)

 

CME Feeder Index

CME Feeder Index* Jan. 23 Change
  $144.84 –   $0.83

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

 

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

Steers-Cash Jan. 24 Change
600-700 lbs. $160.14 –  $0.63
700-800 lbs. $149.42 –  $0.35
800-900 lbs. $143.59 –  $2.22

 

South Central

Steers-Cash Jan. 24 Change
500-600 lbs. $164.39 + $0.11
600-700 lbs. $148.61 –  $1.45
700-800 lbs. $142.59 –  $1.17

 

Southeast

Steers-Cash Jan. 24 Change
400-500 lbs. $161.49 + $2.13
500-600 lbs. $149.14 + $1.23
600-700 lbs. $137.28 + $0.22

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

 

Wholesale Beef Value

Boxed Beef  (p.m.) Jan. 24 ($/cwt) Change
Choice $214.49 + $0.32
Select $210.70 –  $2.05
Ch-Se Spread $3.79 + $2.37

 

Futures

Feeder Cattle  Jan. 24 Change
Jan ’20 $141.850 –  $3.500
Mar $139.675 –  $5.325
Apr $142.500 –  $5.375
May $144.475 –  $4.975
Aug $151.300 –  $3.575
Sep $152.375 –  $3.575
Oct $152.675 –  $3.525
Nov $152.600 –  $3.625

 

Live Cattle   Jan. 24 Change
Feb ’20 $124.850 –  $1.500
Apr $124.300 –  $2.950
Jun $116.025 –  $3.175
Aug $113.625 –  $3.150
Oct $116.150 –  $2.750
Dec $119.450 –  $2.300
Feb ’21 $121.475 –  $1.975
Apr $122.450 –  $1.550
Jun $114.950 –  $2.175

 

Corn  Jan. 24 Change
Mar ’20 $3.872 –  $0.020
May $3.926 –  $0.026
Jul $3.976 –  $0.034
Sep $3.956 –  $0.046
Dec $3.982 –  $0.044
Mar ’21 $4.076 –  $0.048

 

Oil CME-WTI Jan. 24 Change
Mar $54.19 –  $4.39
Apr $54.20 –  $4.31
May $54.12 –  $4.18
Jun $53.91 –  $4.05
Jly $53.61 –  $3.93
Aug $53.24 –  $3.82

 

Equities

Equity Indexes Jan. 24 Change
Dow Industrial Average  28989.73 –   358.37
NASDAQ   9314.91 –     74.03
S&P 500   3295.47 –     34.15
Dollar (DXY)        97.88 +      0.24
Cattle Current Weekly Highlights—Week ending Jan. 24, 2020 2020-01-25T14:32:14-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 24, 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued steady to firm Thursday with live sales at $124/cwt. in Nebraska and at $125 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed sales were at $199 in Nebraska and at $198.00-$199.50 in the western Corn Belt. For the week, live sales in the Southern Plains also were steady at $124.

Cattle futures weakened, though, closing down triple digits, amid active trade. Pressure could have included the bounce higher in nearby Corn futures, demand wonderments related to the global spread of the coronavirus, as well as positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below) that will be released Friday afternoon. Definitive explanations were elusive, though.

Live Cattle futures close an average of $1.88 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 lower for an average of $3.47 lower in the last two sessions.

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and lower on Select, with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $215.32/cwt. Select was 82¢ lower at $211.20.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through the front three contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower in the front six contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 24, 2020 2020-01-23T20:01:02-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan.24, 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued steady to firm Thursday with live sales at $124/cwt. in Nebraska and at $125 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed sales were at $199 in Nebraska and at $198.00-$199.50 in the western Corn Belt. For the week, live sales in the Southern Plains also were steady at $124.

Cattle futures weakened, though, closing down triple digits, amid active trade. Pressure could have included the bounce higher in nearby Corn futures, demand wonderments related to the global spread of the coronavirus, as well as positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below) that will be released Friday afternoon. Definitive explanations were elusive, though.

Live Cattle futures close an average of $1.88 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 lower for an average of $3.47 lower in the last two sessions.

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and lower on Select, with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $215.32/cwt. Select was 82¢ lower at $211.20.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through the front three contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower in the front six contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher. 

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday. Most of the unease seemed to continue to stem from the spread of novel coronavirus. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) offered some optimism in a statement.

“On 22 January, the members of the Emergency Committee expressed divergent views on whether this event constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) or not,” according to the statement. “At that time, the advice was that the event did not constitute a PHEIC, but the Committee members agreed on the urgency of the situation and suggested that the Committee should be reconvened in a matter of days to examine the situation further.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 26 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 18 points.

*******************************

Heading into Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, analysts surveyed by Urner Barry expected, on average, December feedlot placements to be 3.3% higher year over year, according to the Daily Livestock Report.

Those analysts expect to see December marketings up 5.3% and total cattle on feed Jan. 1—in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity—to be up 2.1%.

In the meantime, cattle feeding economics grow more positive, according to the most recent Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns, from Kansas State University.

Net returns projected for closeouts in December are +$51.13 per head for steers and +$40.44 per head for heifers, according to the report. That’s with estimated feedlot cost of gain (FCOG) of $89.49/cwt. for steers and $95.78 for heifers.

Moreover, the report projects positive net returns for steers in six of the next eight months, counting January with a range of -$12.44 (June) to +$122.26 (January) with FCOG of $85.75 (July) to $94.77 (February).

KSU projects positive net returns for heifers in the next eight months, ranging from +$3.60 (August) to +$146.75 (January) with FCOG of $93.01 (August) to $99.88 (February).

Keep in mind that these estimates are cash to cash and do not account for price risk management.

Cattle Current Daily—Jan.24, 2020 2020-01-23T19:58:36-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 23, 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand was moderate in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, with live prices steady with the prior week at $124/cwt.

That matched the weighted average price of $124 for the single lot (112 head) of Kansas heifers that sold in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. The total offering was 561 head (four lots).

Likewise, Choice steers and heifers sold steady at the fat auction in Tama, IA with 123 head of Ch 2-3 steers bringing an average price of $125.84 at an average weight of 1,472 lbs.

At Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota, though, slaughter steers sold steady to $1 lower: 223 head of Ch 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,569 lbs. and bringing an average price of $120.06.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday, led by Feeder Cattle, as the lack of detail and purchases associated with the phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China continues to create unease in commodity markets.

Other than 2¢ higher in away Apr, Live Cattle futures close an average of 36¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower (45¢ to $1.62 lower).

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and lower on Select, with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $214.96/cwt. Select was $1.45 lower at $212.02.

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 23, 2020 2020-01-22T21:07:55-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 23, 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand was moderate in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, with live prices steady with the prior week at $124/cwt.

That matched the weighted average price of $124 for the single lot (112 head) of Kansas heifers that sold in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. The total offering was 561 head (four lots).

Likewise, Choice steers and heifers sold steady at the fat auction in Tama, IA with 123 head of Ch 2-3 steers bringing an average price of $125.84 at an average weight of 1,472 lbs.

At Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota, though, slaughter steers sold steady to $1 lower: 223 head of Ch 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,569 lbs. and bringing an average price of $120.06.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday, led by Feeder Cattle, as the lack of detail and purchases associated with the phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China continues to create unease in commodity markets.

Other than 2¢ higher in away Apr, Live Cattle futures close an average of 36¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower (45¢ to $1.62 lower).

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and lower on Select, with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $214.96/cwt. Select was $1.45 lower at $212.02.

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed and little changed Wednesday. Competing news included more positive quarterly earnings than expected from IBM and the previous day’s confirmation of coronavirus in a Chinese traveler in Seattle.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 12 points.

*******************************

Total pounds of beef in freezers as of Dec. 31 were 1% more than the previous month at 481.01 million lbs., but down 3% from the previous year, according to USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report released Wednesday.

Frozen pork supplies were up 1% from the previous month at 580.1 million lbs., which was 15% more than a year earlier.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 1.01 billion lbs., up 1% from the previous month and up 5% from the prior year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 1% from the previous month but up 1% from a year earlier at 1.20 billion lbs.

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 23, 2020 2020-01-22T21:05:28-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 22, 2020

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Tuesday, amid lackluster trade and little direction.

Other than 2¢ higher in spot Feb, Live Cattle futures close an average of 9¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower across the front half of the board to an average of 20¢ higher across the back half.  

Wholesale beef values were steady on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $214.51/cwt. Select was 1¢ lower at $213.47. Other than a single day last February, the Choice-Select spread the past four days ($1.04 to $1.43) is the narrowest since September of 2017.

Corn futures closed 1¢ lower across the front half of the board and then fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 22, 2020 2020-01-21T19:55:30-06:00

Cattle Current—Jan. 22, 2020

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Tuesday, amid lackluster trade and little direction.

Other than 2¢ higher in spot Feb, Live Cattle futures close an average of 9¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower across the front half of the board to an average of 20¢ higher across the back half.  

Wholesale beef values were steady on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $214.51/cwt. Select was 1¢ lower at $213.47. Other than a single day last February, the Choice-Select spread the past four days ($1.04 to $1.43) is the narrowest since September of 2017.

Corn futures closed 1¢ lower across the front half of the board and then fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, with some of the pressure reportedly stemming from confirmation of coronavirus in a Chinese traveler in Seattle and the potential impact on international travel and tourism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 152 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 18 points.

*******************************

USDA adjusted forecast fourth-quarter 2019 beef production 15 million lbs. higher than the previous month to 7.0 billion lbs., based on the increased pace of non-fed cattle slaughter in December, especially beef cow slaughter.

In the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) say beef cow slaughter is significantly higher since the third quarter last year—13% to 25% more than the same period a year earlier, for the first four weeks of December. That’s based on weekly Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection reports.

“Since the week ending Nov. 15, prices for live cutter cows have remained more than 10% above prices for the same period a year ago. This, coupled with tight forage supplies for some producers, has likely encouraged higher culling rates” ERS analysts explain.

As for fed cattle, more feedlot placements than expected last month point toward increased fed cattle marketing and beef production in the second quarter this year than originally anticipated, according to ERS.

“However, because those calves were likely placed in feedlots rather than remaining on winter wheat pastures as expected, the placement forecast for first-half 2020 was reduced,” say ERS analysts. “As a result, fewer fed cattle marketings are anticipated in second-half 2020, contributing to less expected beef production during that time.”

Cattle Current—Jan. 22, 2020 2020-01-21T19:52:55-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 21, 2020

Cattle futures and equity markets were closed Monday, in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

Wholesale beef values were firm on moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 47¢ higher Monday afternoon at $214.64/cwt. Select was 73¢ higher at $213.48.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 21, 2020 2020-01-20T19:47:47-06:00

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.