WLI

Cattle futures softened Wednesday ahead of the week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.28 lower.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $232/cwt. in Kansas and mostly $232 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $358.53/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $357.65.

Grain and Soybean futures finally found some footing following the bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released earlier in the week.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were  mostly unchanged to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech and bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 42 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 238 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 10¢ lower to 16¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed strongly higher Tuesday. Support included the sharp decrease in Corn futures, higher wholesale beef values and increasing optimism about higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.36 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.42 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $232-$233/cwt., mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 88¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $357.99/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $358.05.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Tuesday with follow-through pressure from the previous day’s bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 24 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.12 to $1.55 higher through the front six contracts, bolstered by increased geopolitical risk stemming from the conflict in Iran.

Cattle futures were higher Monday helped by the plunge in Corn futures, which was tied to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher (30¢ to $1.65 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $232-$233/cwt., mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 18¢ higher at $231.86. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.13 higher at $364.99.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.48 higher Monday afternoon at $357.11/cwt. Select was $5.88 higher at $358.05. The Choice-Select spread turned negative by 94¢.

As alluded to, Corn futures sank on Monday beneath the weight of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 15¢ to 24¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 62 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 31¢ to 46¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased slightly the projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price, in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, expected prices were $232/cwt. in the first quarter, $234 in the second and $237 in the third for an annual average of $236, which was $1 higher.

“Cattle prices for 2026 are raised on recent price data for the first quarter and tighter fed cattle supplies expected in the second half of the year,” say ERS analysts.

Estimated beef production for the year of 25.74 billion pounds was slightly higher than the previous month and would be 265 million pounds less (-1%) than the forecast total for 2025.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

USDA shocked plenty of folks by increasing domestic yield and production rather than decreasing it as many had expected. Instead, yield estimate increased 0.5 bushels per acre to 186.5 and projected harvested area increased by 1.3 million acres for estimated production of 17 billion bushels, which was 269 million more than the previous month’s forecast.

Projected corn stocks rose by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. However, the season-average corn price received by producers was raised by 10¢ cents to $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean production estimated at 4.3 billion bushels was  up 9 million bushels with yield unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acres and harvested area increasing by 0.1 million acres to 80.4 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 was projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30¢, reflecting reported NASS prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices. The soybean meal price was forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price was unchanged at 53¢ per pound.

WheatThe outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat was for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected ending stocks increased 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8% from the previous year. The season-average farm price declined 10¢ per bushel to $4.90.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday on likely week-end profit taking.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower (65¢ lower at the back to $1.55 lower in spot Jan). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.74 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 higher (5¢ to $1.67 higher), except for an average of $1.39 lower in the front three contracts. During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, an average of $1.50 higher in the front five contracts (12¢ higher to $4.62 higher) and then an average of 43¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices were mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

FOB live trades in Kansas the previous week were at mostly $232.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.16 lower Friday afternoon at $355.63/cwt. Select was 11¢ higher at $352.17. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.66 higher and Select was $5.25 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 553,000 head was 79,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week but 38,000 head fewer (-6.4%) than the same week last year. Estimated beef production for the week of 493.3 million pounds was 69.6 million pounds more than the previous week but 27.1 million pounds less (-5.2%) than a year earlier.

Grain and Soybean futures were mainly firm Friday, ahead of next Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were unchanged to fractionally lower through near Dec and then mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ higher through near Aug and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by signs of a firm labor market.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by only 50,000 in December but the unemployment rate inched slightly lower to 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 12¢, to $37.02. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 191 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.06 to $1.36 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continue lower year over year but showed signs of strengthening, according to the latest data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 93,448 metric tons (mt) in October, down 11% year over year but the largest since June and 16% above the low volume posted in September. Export value was also the highest since June at $759.5 million, down 12% from a year ago but 15% above September.

“The latest export data confirm what I consistently hear from customers across the world and from our international staff – that global demand for U.S. red meat remains robust, despite tight supplies and formidable market access barriers,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Obviously, regaining access for U.S. beef in China is our most urgent priority, as industry losses from this lockout are enormous. But we are also hopeful that ongoing trade negotiations will remove barriers in other destinations where consumers have a growing appetite for high-quality red meat.”

January-October beef exports totaled 949,471 mt, down 11% from the 2024 pace, while value was down 10% to $7.79 billion. When excluding China from these results, exports were down 3% in volume and just 1% in value compared to the first 10 months of 2024.

October beef export value equated to $364.78 per head of fed slaughter, down 4% from a year ago. The January-October average was $390.28 per head, down 5% from the same period in 2024.

For broader context, pork exports totaled 264,657 mt in October, up 5% from a year ago. Value was 7% more at $762.1 million. Both volume and value were the largest since March.

January-October pork exports were 2.43 million mt, just 2% below the record pace of 2024. Export value was also down 2% to $6.93 billion. The year-over-year difference is mostly due to a 20% decline in exports to China (which are mainly variety meats), where U.S. pork is subject to burdensome retaliatory duties.

Cattle futures eased higher Thursday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher.  

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher (67¢ higher toward the back to $2.95 higher in spot Jan).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in Kansas to light on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5 higher at $365/cwt. FOB live prices there last week were $232.

FOB live prices were mainly steady in the western Corn Belt at $232. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $365; the price last week was $360.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $232/cwt. in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.51 higher Thursday afternoon at $356.79/cwt. Select was $2.78 higher at $352.06.

Grain and Soybean futures were softer Thursday with likely positioning ahead of next Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Thursday with pressure from tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 270 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 104 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.31 to $2.70 higher through the front six contracts.