WLI

Cattle futures moved lower again on Thursday with follow-through pressure and lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices for the week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ lower, except for $1.85 higher in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.96 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices are unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $377.97/cwt. Select was 51¢ higher at $360.76.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely profit taking, farmer selling and weaker outside markets.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 16¢ to 17¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 28¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, as investors soured on artificial intelligence companies once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 445 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended losses Wednesday, trading mostly limit-down, as traders hunt for a bottom to the emotionally driven break, tied to President Trumps goal of lowering domestic retail beef prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $7.20 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.19 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to moderate on good demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Early, FOB live prices were $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices were unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $228-$229. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower at $357-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $378.26/cwt. Select was $1.00 lower at $360.25.

Grain and Soybean futures rebounded on Wednesday, helped along by China rolling back some tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Wednesday, buoyed by a turnaround in tech stocks and increased speculation the Supreme Court will deem President Trump’s tariffs illegal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 225 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 151 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 68¢ to 93¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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While cattle market psychology may have shifted in recent weeks, market fundamentals remain mostly the same, says Will Secor, Extension Livestock Economist at the University of Georgia, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“The supply side remains tight with limited opportunities to expand in the short run,” Secor explains. “Cull cows from the dairy sector may offset some of the reduction in beef cull cows on tighter dairy margins. However, this offset is partial. Additionally, dressed weight increases may be topping out. In September, year-over-year increases in cattle dressed weights ranged from 1.5-2.1%. In contrast, dressed weights in January saw year-over-year increases of around 3.2-5.3%. Lastly, changes in beef imports are limited and likely more complementary to existing beef supplies, as imports are often lean beef being blended for ground beef.”

On the other side of scale, Secor notes various data suggest domestic consumer beef demand remains strong.

Queasiness about political intent for the cattle markets and wonderments about resumption of cattle imports from Mexico pressured Cattle futures on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.25 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.09 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235-$236/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas, $228-$232 in Nebraska and mostly $230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $358-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 lower Tuesday afternoon at $377.58/cwt. Select was $1.32 higher at $361.25.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower on Tuesday with pressure likely including farmer selling and profit taking from recent gains.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 14¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Tuesday, led by tech stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 251 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 80 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 486 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 45¢ to 70¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural sentiment improved slightly in October, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB). The overall index rose 3 points from the previous month to a reading of 129. The Index of Current Conditions fueled the increase, climbing 8 points to 130. The Index of Future Expectations was virtually unchanged at 129.

AEB analysts say producers’ appraisal of current conditions depict a tale of two economies. Livestock producers remain optimistic, partly supported by record-high profitability in the beef sector. However, crop producers report a more pessimistic view of the current situation due to low profit margins across major crop enterprises.

Similarly, Crop producers expect their financial performance to fall well below that of a year ago, while livestock producers anticipate results similar to the previous year. The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped to 78 in October, 10 points lower than in September.

“U.S. farmers are adjusting to ongoing economic pressures in different ways,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Livestock producers are seeing strong returns and remain optimistic, while many crop producers are contemplating management changes for 2026 to help cope with tighter margins.”

Policy uncertainty continues to influence producer sentiment. In October, 58% of producers said they expect increased use of tariffs by the U.S. to strengthen the agricultural economy, up from September but still below the 70% reported in April and May. Meanwhile, 16% of respondents said they were uncertain about the impact of tariff policies on the agricultural economy, double that of both April and May. Despite this uncertainty, roughly 70% of producers said they believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey took place Oct. 13-17.

Fundamentals appeared to return to Cattle futures trade Monday as prices gained back some of the recent losses.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.34 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.36 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $235-$236/cwt. in a light test, $1-$3 lower in Kansas at $235-$237 in a light test, $7 lower in Nebraska at $228-$232 and $5-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $230. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $10-$12 lower at $358-$360.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $7.03 lower at $230.86. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $10.76 lower at $358.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 higher Monday afternoon at $379.25/cwt. Select was $1.28 higher at $359.93.

Soybean futures gained again Monday, riding the coattails of last week’s announced trade framework between the United States and China. Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 14¢ to 20¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 13¢ higher with chatter about potential Chinese business.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, with the most support from AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 226 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 109 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed unchanged to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Given extreme volatility in cattle markets the past couple of weeks, tied to political statement and proposals aimed at reducing domestic consumer retail beef prices, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University emphasizes the importance of remembering that underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.

“What is clear is that uncertainty and volatility from political comments and rhetoric have a very real negative impact on producers and consumers,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He notes feeder cattle value declined $200-$300 per head in Oklahoma auctions last week. 

“The federal government’s demonstrated willingness to meddle in cattle and beef markets and interfere with markets doing what they do so well likely means that the industry will continue to deal with debilitating uncertainty and volatility,” Peel says. “The most likely outcome is that it will keep cattle producers and lenders cautious and further delay the lengthy process of herd rebuilding, which already looks to extend nearly to the end of the decade.” He adds that the trajectory and price expectations for the next two to four years have not changed.

Heightened volatility and uncertainty tied to lingering wonderments about President Trump’s stated goal to reduce beef prices capped recent gains in Cattle futures on Friday. Month-end position squaring was likely also at play.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.99 lower, except for $1.32 higher in expiring spot Oct. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $5.75 lower, except for $2.85 higher in expiring spot Oct. They were an average $10.37 lower the previous week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 lower, from 2¢ lower in expiring Oct to $2.95 lower. Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $16.31 lower. They were an average of $38.40 lower over the past two weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $232.00/cwt. and some in the western Corn Belt at $230.

For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska were $355-$360.

FOB live prices in the Southern Plains the previous week were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ lower Friday afternoon at $378.13/cwt. Select was 87¢ lowerat $358.65.

Soybean futures gained further Friday on the recently announced trade framework between the United States and China, which includes minimum U.S. soybean exports to China. They closed mostly 8¢ to 10¢ higher through Mar ‘27.

Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher through Jly ’26 and then mostly fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 11¢ higher through Sep ’26 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 40 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 143 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 15¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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President Trump’s recent comments about reducing beef prices and chatter about importing more beef from Argentina continued to play havoc in cattle markets last week, sinking cattle futures for a second consecutive week and hammering cash prices for calves and feeder cattle. Nationwide, trend of $30-$40/cwt. declines were common at weekly auctions.

“These comments have quickly ambushed the American cattle producer with their unintended consequences,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As it relates to reducing beef prices domestically, the President is really only talking about ground beef. Nearly every ounce of imported beef is lean grinding beef except for some muscle cuts coming from Canada. This means that more beef imports would really only influence ground beef prices if they impact anything at all. In fact, the lean grinding beef is needed to mix with trimmings and fat from domestically produced finished cattle, because it adds value to the fat and whole carcass. One person’s opinion is that fundamentals will rule the day. It will take a little time to determine if that is the case or not.”