WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $4-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $144-$148 and $1-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $145-$148. Dressed prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $229-$230 and near the top of the previous week’s trade in the western Corn Belt at $229.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ higher Friday afternoon at $263.37/cwt. Select was $2.13 higher at $239.59/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 647,000 was 4,000 fewer than the previous week but 11,000 head more than the previous year. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 20.77 million head was 246,000 head more (+1.2%) than a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.12 billion lbs. was 171.3 million lbs. more (+1.0%).

Although supported by the week’s stronger cash prices, Live Cattle futures wobbled Friday — an average of 37¢ lower in the front five contracts and then unchanged to an average of 4¢ higher. 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 lower, pressured by Corn futures, which were 10¢ to 14¢ higher through Jly ‘23, fueled by the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 5¢ higher after 40¢ lower in spot Aug and 14¢ higher in near Sep.

Despite the latest pressure from feed prices, Feeder Cattle futures mainly maintained the previous two week’s strong gains, week to week on Friday. Week to week on Thursday, The CME Feeder Cattle Index closed $2.85 higher at $178.28/cwt. That’s almost $6 higher over the last two weeks.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday as investors speculated inflation may be at the peak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 424 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 72 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $2.25 lower through the through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected weighted average five-area direct steer price for this year 80¢ to $142.10/cwt., on current price strength. That’s from the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Next year’s projected annual price was $1 higher than the previous month’s estimate at $154. Prices were estimated at $140 in the third quarter and $147 in the fourth quarter. Prices in the first and second quarter next year were projected at $151 and $152, respectively.

Beef production for this year was projected at 27.99 billion lbs., which was 68 million lbs. more than the previous month’s estimate, based on higher expected placements in the second half of this year. Estimated beef production next year of 26.26 billion lbs. would be 1.7 billion lbs. less (-6.2%) than this year.

Total red meat and poultry production is estimated to be 106.48 billion lbs. this year, which would be 334 million lbs. less than last year (-0.3%). Projected total red meat and poultry production of 105.8 billion lbs. next year would be 673 million lbs. less (-0.6%) than this year.

Corn

Estimated 2022-23 production was reduced 146 million bu. to 14.4 billion based on yield estimates of 175.4 bu./acre, which was 1.6 bu./acre less than the previous estimate. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 82 million bu. to 1.4 billion.

The season-average farm price (SAFP) received by producers for corn was unchanged at $6.65/bu.

Soybeans

Although harvested soybean area was reduced 0.3 million acres from the previous estimate, average yield was projected 0.4 bu. higher at 51.9 bu./acre. Soybean supplies for 2022-23 were estimated to be 20 million bu. more at 2.16 billion bu. Ending stocks were projected 15 million bu. more at 245 million bu.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022-23 was forecast at $14.35/bu., down 5¢ from last month. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts were unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0¢/lb., respectively.

Wheat

Estimated U.S. wheat production for 2022-23 was raised 2 million bu. from the previous month to 1,783 million bu. with all wheat yield projected 0.2 bu. more than the previous months at is 47.5 bu./acre. Projected 2022-23 ending wheat stocks were lowered 29 million bu. to 610 million.

The projected 2022-23 season-average farm price was reduced by $1.25 to $9.25/bu., based on prices received for marketings to date, which are lower than previously expected. However, the projected SAFP would still surpass the record of $7.77/bu. in 2012-13.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live prices were $4-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $140/cwt. and $4 higher in Kansas at $140.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on light demand with too few transactions to trend. On Wednesday, live prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $144-$148 and mostly $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $145-$148. Dressed prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $229-$230 and toward the top of last week’s trading range in the western Corn Belt at $229.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $263.10/cwt. Select was 38¢ higher at $237.46/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Thursday, up for Live Cattle with stronger cash prices and lower for Feeder Cattle amid higher Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 37¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ higher (7¢ higher toward the back to $1.40 higher in spot Aug).

Corn and soybean futures rose Thursday, with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 19¢ to 20¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices wobbled after an early run and then closed narrowly mixed, on likely profit taking, but they retained a lion’s share of the previous session’s strong gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 27 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 74 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.92 to $2.41 higher through the through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by higher outside markets and the positive outlook for cash prices this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.56 higher ($1.22 to $2.50 higher). Live Cattle futures closed an average of 99¢ higher (57¢ to $1.30 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on light to moderate demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales at $146/cwt. in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt and some early dressed sales in Nebraska at $229.

Last week, live prices were $135-$136/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $136 in Kansas, $140-$143 in Nebraska and $141-$147 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $227 in Nebraska and $225-$232 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.50 lower Wednesday afternoon at $263.23/cwt. Select was 62¢ lower at $237.08/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mixed but mostly fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday, fueled by one inflation gauge that was lower than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for all consumers was unchanged in July according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index is up 8.5% over the last 12 months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 535 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 87 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 360 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.43 to $1.63 higher through the through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef imports were 18.1% higher than last year through June but were 15.3% less year over year for the month of June at the lowest level since 2019, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He explains imports declined in the face of increased domestic cow slaughter and lean beef production.

On the other side of the scale, as mentioned in Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports through June were 6% more year over year for volume and 33% more for value, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

“Beef trade has been generally supportive thus far this year, but the future is uncertain,” Peel says. “Global and U.S. economic forecasts have been reduced as global economies continue to struggle. The U.S. dollar continues strong, which will be a headwind for future exports. U.S. beef production is expected to decline in the last part of the year and beyond reducing available beef supplies. All of these will likely impact beef trade going forward.”

Corn futures rallied Tuesday, apparently fueled by more negative crop conditions (see below). They closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘23 and then 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 22¢ to 28¢ higher through Aug ‘23, except for sharply higher in the two front contracts, and then 15¢ to 19¢ higher.

Higher grain Futures and oversold conditions pressured Feeder Cattle futures an average of $1.73 lower (90¢ lower at the back to $3.15 lower toward the front). Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ lower (25¢ to $1.05 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $135-$136/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $136 in Kansas, $140-$143 in Nebraska and $141-$147 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $227 in Nebraska and $225-$232 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 lower Tuesday afternoon at $264.73/cwt. Select was $1.16 lower at $237.70/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices faltered Tuesday, led lower by tech stocks in general and chip makers specifically.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 58 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 150 points.

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National pasture and range conditions the week ending Aug. 7 continued to deteriorate compared to the prior year, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report.

24% of pasture and range was rated as Good (21%) or Excellent (3%), which was 1% less than a week earlier and 6% less than a year earlier. Conversely, 49% was rated as Poor (23%) or Very Poor (26%), which was the same as a week earlier but 6% more than a year earlier.

90% of corn was silking, which was 4% less than last year and 3% less than the five-year average. 45% was in the dough stage, compared to 53% last year and 49% for average. 6% was dented, which was 1% less than last year and 2% less than the five-year average. 58% was rated as Good (46%) or Excellent (12%), which was 3% less than the prior week and 6% less than a year earlier. 16% was rated Poor (10%) or Very Poor (6%) versus 14% a week earlier and 11% a year earlier.

89% of soybeans were blooming, which was 1% less than last year but 1% more than the average. 61% were setting pods, compared to 70% last year and 66% for average. 59% were rated as Good (49%) or Excellent (10%) which was 1% less than the previous week and year. 11% were rated Poor (8%) or Very Poor (3%), the same as a week earlier and 2% less than the prior year.

86% of winter wheat was harvested, compared to 94% the previous year and 91% for the average.

Last week’s stronger cash prices for feeder and fed cattle, along with softer Corn futures helped Cattle futures extend gains Monday, especially Feeder Cattle, which closed an average of $1.49 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $135-$136/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $136 in Kansas, $140-$143 in Nebraska and $141-$147 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $227 in Nebraska and $225-$232 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average steer price last week was $140.84/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.01 more than the previous week. The weighted average price in the beef was $2.20 higher at $227.83.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 higher Monday afternoon at $266.24/cwt. Select was 19¢ higher at $238.86/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday as investors paddled in place awaiting further data direction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 29 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 13 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $1.75 to $2.06 higher through the through the front six contracts.

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The United States farm real estate value, a measurement of the value of all land and buildings on farms, averaged $3,800 per acre for 2022, up $420 per acre (12.4%) from 2021, according to the latest Land Values Summary from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

United States cropland value averaged $5,050 per acre, an increase of $630 per acre (14.3%) from the previous year.

United States pasture value averaged $1,650 per acre, an increase of $170/ acre (11.5%) from 2021. From a percentage standpoint, pasture value was up the most — 17.7% — in the Northern Plains, where average value per acre was $1,330: Kansas (+23.3% to $1,850/acre); South Dakota (+16.0% to $1,230/acre); Nebraska (+14.8% to $1,240/acre); and North Dakota (+10.7% to $930/acre).

Regionally, average pasture value increases were among the least — 6.3% — in the Delta states, where average pasture value was $2,870/acre: Louisiana (+5.1% to $3,100/acre); Arkansas (+5.6% to $2,850/acre); and Mississippi (+8.9% to $2.700/acre).