WLI

Cattle futures crawled higher Thursday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in near Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258-$260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $408 in Nebraska and $405 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.62 lower Thursday afternoon at $396.32/cwt. Select was $3.40 lower at $374.74.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with likely technical buying and added weather premium.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 19¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday. Pressure included tech stocks and inflation.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for May increased 0.4% and was 4.1% higher year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Excluding food and energy, the PCE increased 0.3% in May and was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 118 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.06 to $1.18 higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural economic prospects improved in June, according to the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), which climbed 6.9 points month to month to 52.6, the highest level since July 2023. The RMI is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. It ranges between 0 and 100 with 50 representing growth neutral.

“More than half, or 52.6%, of bankers reported that small business growth in their service area was stable, while 42.1% indicated modest declines. The remaining 5.3% reported modest growth for small business in their area,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The farm and ranchland index increased for the second consecutive month, rising to 55.3 in June from 50.1 in May.

“Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have restrained farmland values,” according to Goss.

Although still weak, the June farm equipment sales index also increased, rising to 28.9 in June from 18.2 in May. However, the index was below growth neutral for the 34th consecutive month.

“The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs,” Goss explains.

Overall, rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June economic confidence index moved to 42.1 from 34.8 in May.

When asked to name the top federal action needed to drive farm and ranch income higher, 41.9% named lowering global tariffs; approximately 26.3% said passage of a 5-year farm bill.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.09 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258-$260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $408 in Nebraska and $405 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 lower Wednesday afternoon at $398.94/cwt. Select was $2.92 lower at $378.14.

Grain and Soybean futures were mostly lower on Wednesday. Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with continued pressure from the selloff in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 182 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 110 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.38 to $3.39 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures trended lower Tuesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 97¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258-$260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $408 in Nebraska at $405 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.25 higher Tuesday afternoon at $400.31/cwt., the highest level since March. Select was $5.47 higher at $381.06.

Positive growing conditions and crop progress continued to challenge grain and Soybean futures Tuesday.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 12¢ to 14¢ lower with likely added harvest pressure.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by tech stocks, specifically shares related to memory chips.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 107 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 579 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 12¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Stalwart domestic consumer beef demand may be showing signs of wear, based on the latest Meat Demand Monitor (MDM).

“Consumer frustrations with their finances continue to grow by a larger subset of the U.S. population,” according to Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University. “Specifically, the latest Meat Demand Monitor base report notes 39% of U.S. residents indicate their household finances are worse than in May of 2025 – the highest on record for May since the MDM series launched in 2020. This corresponds with weaker beef demand per the MDM for the month of May and is a cautionary point regarding the broader risk at hand to beef demand’s historically strong run that truly has been the largest economic force underpinning cattle and beef prices.”

At the same time, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center, Tonsor points out consumers have, thankfully, taken news of New World screwworm in stride this far.

Cattle futures were higher Monday, responding to last week’s higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices, supportive outside markets and the friendly placement number in Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.14 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $258-$260/cwt., $2-$4 higher in Kansas at $258-$260, mainly $2-$5 higher in Nebraska at mostly $260 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $257-$260. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $3 higher in Nebraska at $408 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $405 in a light test.

The weighted averaged five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.55 higher at $259.63. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $2.12 higher at $407.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.69 higher Monday afternoon at $396.06/cwt. Select was $3.51 higher at $375.79.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to wilt Monday beneath the heat of positive growing conditions and crop progress (see below).

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 7¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, pressured by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 148 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 351 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.33 to $1.82 lower through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions improved slightly last week, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending June 21. Nationwide, 33% was rated as Good (26%) or Excellent (7%), compared to 37% the previous year. On the other end of the scale, 37% was in Poor (20%) or Very Poor condition (17%), which was 8% more than the same time last year.

States with 40% or more pasture and range ranked as Poor or Very Poor included: Arizona (75%), Colorado (63%), Montana (46%), Nebraska (73%), New Mexico (43%), North Carolina (53%), Utah (54%), Virginia (53%), West Virginia (63%) and Wyoming (60%).

Winter wheat harvest continues to progress more rapidly than usual with 40% completed, which was 22% more than the same time last year and 16% more than the five-year average.

Corn condition held steady with the previous week with 68% was in Good (56%) or Excellent (12%) condition, compared to 70% a year earlier; 6% was rated as Poor (5%) or Very Poor (1%), the same as a year earlier.

Similarly, 66% of soybeans were rated in Good (56%) or Excellent (10%) condition, the same as the previous week and year; 6% was rated as Poor (5%) or Very Poor (1%), compared to 7% a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although established trade was undeveloped through Friday afternoon, there were private reports of FOB live bids at $258-$260 in various regions.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $255-$256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $256 in Kansas and $255-$258 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $403-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ higher Friday afternoon at $394.37/cwt. Select was $2.67 lower at $372.08. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.44 higher, while Select was 64¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 526,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 12.8 million head was 1.2 million head fewer (-8.9%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.5 billion pounds was 758.9 million pounds less (-6.2%).

Futures markets were closed Friday, in observance of Juneteenth.

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.12 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $9.97 higher. During the same period Corn futures closed an average of 4’2¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Equity markets were closed Friday, but major U.S. financial indices were up on the week, stemming from the announced peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Week to week on Thursday, Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) closed an average of $9.28 lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle markets continue to fade news of New World screwworm (NWS) arriving in the United States, helped in part by the fact so few infections have been confirmed. As of last Friday, there had been a total of 12 cases since the first confirmed detection June 3, affecting domestic cattle, goats and a single dog, most all in four Texas counties, according to USDA’s NWS Confirmed Detections dashboard.

The most profound impact on domestic cattle markets to date stems from continued closure of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. When Mexican feeder cattle are again eligible for export to the United States, they might not return to levels before the U.S. border was closed due to NWS.

For one thing, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out the Mexican cattle and beef industries evolved significantly during the past two decades.

“Beef production in Mexico has increased an average of 2% per year in the last decade. This is the result of increased cattle slaughter, about 1.6% annually, and increasing carcass weights,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Average cattle carcass weights have increased from about 600 pounds 25 years ago to roughly 710 pounds currently. The Mexican beef industry evolved from predominantly grass-fed production to current production where most cattle are fed in feedlots. This, along with improved cattle genetics and management, has led to increased carcass weights.”

Peele notes Mexican cattle exports averaged 1.2 million head over the last 25 years and typically represent 14-16% of the calf crop.   

“Cattle and beef trade between Mexico and the U.S. has evolved from a long history of cattle exports to the U.S. to include Mexico becoming a major beef export destination for the U.S., and recently with Mexico becoming a significant source of U.S. beef imports,” Peel says. “The increasingly integrated trade relationship adds value to the beef industries in both countries.

“Not exporting feeder cattle to the U.S. means that more cattle are staying in Mexico to be finished for beef production. It also likely means that fewer cattle are being imported from Central America, which has been a source of supplemental cattle supply in recent years. Mexican beef imports will likely decrease, and beef exports will increase in the absence of cattle exports.  Production systems and supply chains will continue to evolve in Mexico.”

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.