WLI

Cattle futures wobbled Tuesday with indecisive two-sided trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ higher, except for 53¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 45¢ lower, except for 32¢ higher in Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $225/cwt. in Kansas, $220-$225 in Nebraska and $220 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $340-$345.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $215-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $361.04/cwt. Select was 57¢ lower at $348.60.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower 4¢ higher, helped by reduced ending stocks in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

KC HRW Wheat futures were unchanged to fractionally mixed, challenged by an increase in estimated global ending stocks.

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower, with no supply or use changes in the WASDE.

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Major U.S. financial indices teetered on Tuesday as investors awaited this week’s Fed decision about interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 30 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) an average of 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered estimated five-area direct fed steer prices significantly, compared to the previous month, in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For this year, the fourth-quarter price dropped $8 to $226/cwt. and the annual average price declined $2 to $223.97. For 2026, projected prices declined $12 in the first quarter to $230, $9 in the second quarter to $234 and $12 in the third quarter to $236. The annual 2026 average price was $11 lower at $235. Price reductions were based on recent price data and the announced loss of packing capacity.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected 2025 beef production by 194 million pounds to 25.95 billion pounds, based on the faster rate of fed and non-fed slaughter in the fourth quarter, as well as heavier dressed weights. That would be 1 billion pounds less than last year (-3.8%)

Estimated 2026 production of 25.73 billion pounds would be 225 million pounds less (-0.9%) than this year’s estimated total.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook was for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports were raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, reflecting shipments to date. With no supply changes and with use rising, corn ending stocks were lowered 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.00 per bushel.

Soybeans

2025/26 U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections were unchanged. U.S. season-average prices were projected at $10.50 per bushel for soybeans, $300 per short ton for soybean meal and 53¢ per pound for soybean oil.

Wheat

All supply and use categories for 2025/26 U.S. wheat were unchanged. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price was unchanged at $5.00 per bushel.

Cattle futures stepped back from recent gains on Monday with likely profit taking and technical selling.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 81¢ lower, except for 17¢ higher in spot Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.76 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light 70 moderate demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5 higher in Kansas at $225/cwt., $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $220-$225 and $10-$12 higher in the western Corn Belt at $220. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $340-$345 and $12-$15 higher in the western Corn Belt at $340-$345.

There was no reported established weekly in the Texas Panhandle last week. FOB live prices the previous week were $215-$220.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $9.68 higher at $221.21. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer prices was $13.23 higher at $342.61.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ lower Monday afternoon at $360.90/cwt. Select was $1.21 higher at $348.60.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Monday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday with mixed inflation signals as investors awaited this week’s Fed decision about interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 215 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 1.09 to $1.22 lower through the front six contracts.

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“As 2025 wraps up there is still little indication of significant heifer retention for herd rebuilding though some retention may be beginning slowly,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

Peel notes the July Cattle report showed the smallest beef replacement heifer inventory in the history of the report, going back to 1973. He adds that, compared to July, the percentage of heifers in feedlots was unchanged in the October Cattle on Feed report and remained above average, as it has since late 2018.

“It is true that heifer slaughter is down 6.6% so far this year and is falling faster than steer slaughter, which is down 4.4% for the year to date.  Average heifer slaughter peaked most recently in January 2023 and has declined 9.0% as of October 2025, Peel says. “Heifer slaughter is quite variable and does decrease during periods of herd expansion. However, at this point the decrease in heifer slaughter is not enough to indicate significant heifer retention.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday on positive fundamentals and the week’s higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.01 higher (95¢ to $5.70 higher).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $7.80 higher ($6.50 higher to $11.57 higher in spot Dec). That’s an average of $12.02 higher in the last two weeks.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.83 higher on Friday ($1.92 to $3.62 higher). Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $15.94 higher. That’s an average of $26.86 higher over the past two weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $5 higher than earlier in the week at $225/cwt.

Trade in the western Corn Belt was limited on moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $220-$222.

For the week, FOB live prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $220-$225 and $10-$12 higher in the western Corn Belt at $220. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $340-$345 and $12-$15 higher in the western Corn Belt at $340-$345.

There was no reported established weekly trade in the Southern Plains. The previous week, FOB live prices were $215-$220 in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $220 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.56 lower Friday afternoon at $361.20/cwt. Select was $2.93 lower at $347.39.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.62 lower and Select was $3.66 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the week of 600,000 head was 102,000 head more than the prior holiday-shortened week but 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 27.3 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-7%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 23.9 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.3%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ lower on increasing confusion about the U.S. trade deal with China.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Sep ‘26, and then fractionally mixed with spillover pressure from Soybeans.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed unchanged to 2¢ lower, except for 6¢ lower in spot Dec.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased higher on Friday, supported by a tamer inflation reading than expected. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was 2.8% higher year over year in September, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. That’s the latest data available, due to the government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 104 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 72 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 41¢ to 50¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA issued the monthly livestock slaughter report for October last week, delayed due to the government shutdown. Still, it provides some insight.

For instance, through the end of October steer and heifer slaughter led the overall decline in cattle slaughter, which was 6.7% less at the time, marking the third year of declining numbers, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). Steer slaughter was 4.7% less year over year and heifer slaughter was 7%.

“Compared to prior troughs in slaughter around 2015, declines in heifer slaughter remain smaller than those observed then (2013-14: -8.6%; 2014-15: -13.2%),” LMIC analysts say in a recent Livestock Monitor. “Pullbacks in beef cow and bull slaughter have also been significant this year; beef cow slaughter is down 18.2% year over year to just below 2 million head, while bulls are down 10%.” For perspective, they explain beef cow slaughter

fell 17.9% from 2013-14 and 14.7% from 2014-15 for the January-October period.

Cattle futures were higher once again Thursday, buoyed by stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.60 higher, except for 40¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $220/cwt. and dressed delivered prices were $340. That was $10 higher in Nebraska and $10-$12 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220 in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $220 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.09 lower Thursday afternoon at $362.72/cwt. Select was $2.80 lower at $350.32.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher on Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher, helped by ethanol production.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher, as traders added more risk premium for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 49¢ to 73¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures eased higher Wednesday amid chatter that cash fed cattle prices could improve this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mainly $220 in Kansas, mostly $210 in Nebraska and mainly $208-$210 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $330 in Nebraska and $328-$330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.81/cwt. Select was $2.34 higher at $353.12.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, with continued optimism about the Fed cutting interest rates this month. Some of the optimism came from the loss of jobs indicated in the November ADP National Employment Report^®. According to the report, private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in November and pay was up 4.4% year over year.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction, according to ADP.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 40 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 47¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Taking stock of global economic health, the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook suggests the global economy remained resilient this year in the face of trade uncertainty, although underlying fragilities remain.

The Outlook projects global growth slowing from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before picking up to 3.1% in 2027.

GDP growth in the United States is projected to decline from 2.0% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. In the euro area, growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. China’s growth is projected to ease from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.

Annual headline inflation in the G20 economies is expected to moderate to 2.9% and 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, from 3.4% this year. By mid-2027, inflation is projected to be back to target in most major economies.