WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $7-$8 higher in the Southern Plains at $210/cwt. and $6-$9 higher in the North at $212-$215. Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher at $335.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday after early strength on likely week-end profit taking and positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 lower ($1.87 lower at the front to $5.05 lower at the back).

Cattle futures should find some early-week support tied to the friendly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.15 lower Friday afternoon at $325.91/cwt. Select was 28¢ higher at $309.64.

Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.64 higher and Select was $3.32 higher. Choice was up $11 over the past two weeks.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 560,000 head was 24,000 head less than the prior week and 33,000 head less than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 6.7 million head was 452,000 head less (-6.3%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.8 billion pounds was 143.3 million pounds less (-2.4%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed again Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, amid volatile trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 9¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Markets will likely view USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, February placements of 1.6 million head were 336,000 head fewer (-17.7%) than the same month last year, which was 3.3% less than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 52% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

February marketings of 1.6 million head were 160,000 head fewer than the prior year (-8.9%), which was near pre-report estimates, but a touch less.

The March 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was 261,000 head fewer than a year earlier (-2.2%), which was also a touch softer than pre-report expectations.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday, supported by recently higher wholesale beef values and the increasing likelihood of higher cash fed cattle prices for the week. Through mid-morning Friday, Cattle futures were lower ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

On Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.36 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher.

There was no AMS report for negotiated cash fed cattle prices Thursday afternoon. Through mid-morning Friday, there were reports of significantly higher week-to-week bids.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher through old-crop contracts and then mostly fractionally mixed. Front months were supported by strong weekly export demand.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower through away May and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher through near Sep and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but lower Thursday, with continued pressure from tariff wonderment and economic recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 97¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, supported by surging wholesale beef values, firmer outside markets and possibly an eye toward Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Pre-report estimates are for February feedlot placements to be about 14% less year over year, February marketing to be down about 8% and the March 1 cattle on feed inventory to be down 2%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.84 higher.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.29 higher Wednesday afternoon at $329.61/cwt. Select was 55¢ lower at $308.68.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures 4¢ to 5¢ lower.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, helped along by the Fed saying a couple more interest rate cuts are still on the table for this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 383 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 31¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Despite the anticipated year-over-year decline in cattle slaughter this year, heavier carcass weights will help push beef production close to last year’s level, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the March Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year,” ERS analysts say. They explain the increase is driven by heavier steer and heifer carcass weights, as well as the proportion fed steer and heifers in the slaughter mix.

Although the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days Feb. 1 was about 3% less year over year, based on the February Cattle on Feed report, ERS analysts expect market-ready fed cattle supplies will increase amid slower packer production and cattle spending more time on feed.

As for the percentage of steers and heifers in the slaughter mix, ERS analysts note an increase. The percentage has averaged about 79% over the last decade, but they say it rose to 81% through the first 10 weeks of this year; the first time the percentage has eclipsed 80% since 2007.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Tuesday with pressure from outside markets and wonderment about this week’s cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from unchanged to 12¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 20¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in the back contract.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.32/cwt. Select was $1.33 higher at $309.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally mixed. Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures  were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 60 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 304 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 57¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

La Niña is ending and drought is expanding, according to the latest data.

For the week ending March 11, 43.6% of the nation was experiencing some degree of drought, compared to 22.3% a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Painting with a finer brush, 7.5% of the nation was enduring extreme or exceptional drought, compared to 1.5% a year earlier.  38% of the nation’s cattle were in areas impacted by drought versus 18% a year earlier.

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s Seasonal Outlook through May indicated persistent drought and emerging drought across a wide swath of the country from the entire state of Texas and up through the Northern Plains, extending west to Nevada and down to Southern California.

In the meantime, odds favor La Niña ending and ENSO-neutral conditions emerging in the next month, according to the latest La Niña Advisory from NOAA’s National Weather Center.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, supported by last week’s bounce in cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.77 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5-$6 higher in the Southern Plains at $202-$203/cwt. and $4-$6 higher in the North at $206/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$10 higher in Nebraska at $325 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $325.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $5.02 higher at $205.30. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $8.54 higher at $324.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.89 higher Monday afternoon at $321.16/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $307.90.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures 18¢ to 19¢ higher with traders apparently adding premium. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices continued to advance Monday in the wake of the recent selloff.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 353 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 54 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 35¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected feeder steer prices for this year for all quarters, compared to the previous month, in the March Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices were forecast at $273 in the first and second quarters, $274 in the third quarter and $279 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $274.75. Prices are basis Med. and Lg. #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

“The combination of tight supplies of feeder cattle, the recently constrained pace of cattle imports from Mexico due to protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm, and uncertainty surrounding the terms of trade for cattle imported from Canada and Mexico are creating some volatility, pushing prices higher for U.S. feeders and stocker operations to secure their cattle needs,” say ERS analysts.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered expectations for the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price in the first half of this year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, but left them unchanged for the second half, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Specifically, prices were projected $3 lower in the first quarter at $202/cwt. and $2 lower in the second quarter at $198, based on recent prices. Prices were forecast at $198 in the third quarter and at $200 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $200, which was $1 lower than the previous month’s outlook.

Forecast beef production increased by 120 million pounds (0.5%) to 26.7 billion pounds with heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. This year’s projected beef production would be 303 million pounds less (-1.1%) than last year.