WLI

Cattle futures closed mostly lower Friday on caution ahead of the three-day weekend.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 99¢ lower, except for an average of 11¢ higher in the back three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ higher, except for an average of 85¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ higher, from 7¢ higher toward the back to $1.22 higher in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.84 higher week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was limited on light demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales at mostly $220/cwt.

Based on established trade last week, FOB live prices were steady to $4 lower in the North at $218/cwt. and dressed delivered prices were steady at $345. However, prices strengthened toward the end of the week, according to various reports and the Texas Cattle Feeders Association reported its members trading FOB live steers and heifers at $222.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Friday afternoon at $376.17/cwt. Select was $5.15 higher at $355.87. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 6¢ lower and Select was $5.21 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 526,000 head was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week but 32,000 head more than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 18.5 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-7.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 16.5 billion pounds was 876.3 million pounds less (-5.1%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Friday with likely profit taking and positioning ahead of the three-day weekend.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Dec ’27. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 13¢ to 15¢ lower.  Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ to 12¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday on worries about interest rate hikes tied to a stronger than expected labor report.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in August rose by 10¢ to $37.75. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 271 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 77 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 18¢ to $1.11 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports climbed signs of strengthening for the second consecutive month, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

July U.S. beef exports totaled 89,139 metric tons (mt), which was steady year over year, while value climbed 6% to $796.7 million. The value increase was driven primarily by another outstanding month for Taiwan, as well as strong results in Mexico, Japan, the Middle East, Colombia, the Caribbean and the ASEAN region. July shipments to China rebounded slightly from last year’s minimal volumes, but remained far below the levels seen in previous years.

Beef export value equated to just over $421 per head of fed slaughter in July, up 14% from a year ago. The January-July average was up 7% to $430.25 per head.

For January through July, beef exports were 8% below last year’s pace at 634,788 mt, while value was down 2% to $5.53 billion. When excluding China from these results, exports increased 6% in value and were down just 1% in volume from a year ago.

“Despite significant headwinds, global demand for U.S. beef remains impressively resilient,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Technical barriers and uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on exports to China, but we are hopeful that market access will be restored soon. In the meantime, U.S. beef is capitalizing on growth opportunities in Asian and Western Hemisphere markets, as well as in the Middle East.”

On the other side of the freezer, July pork exports totaled 224,305 mt, down 6% from a year ago, while value also fell 6% to $641.8 million.

Cattle futures finally bounced higher Thursday, supported by oversold conditions and some renewed strength in cash prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.32 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.50 higher.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle was light on light demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are $218/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are $345. There is no established trade in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.88 lower Thursday afternoon at $376.90/cwt. Select was $2.86 lower at $350.72.

Corn and Kansas City Wheat futures were lower on Thursday with likely profit taking and positioning ahead of the three-day weekend.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 22¢ lower. However, Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 5¢ higher, supported by export sales. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, as Treasury yields declined.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 624 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 81 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 366 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 52¢ lower to 66¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural economic conditions improved slightly last month, according to the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), which is based on a survey of bank CEOs in a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The overall index increased from 42.1 in July to 50.3 in August, rising above growth neutral for the second time in the last six months. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Despite higher input costs and improved, but still relatively weak grain prices, bank CEOs rated approximately 52.5% of farm borrowers in good condition with the remaining 47.5% rated in fair condition,” says Ernie Goss, the, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Increasingly dry conditions in some areas are also applying pressure on some cattle producers.

“We have a good percentage of cattle ranchers which is helping to support our ag lending operation. However, the increasing drought in Western South Dakota, Wyoming and Montana has made some or our borrowers start to liquidate their herds,” according to Todd Douglas, CEO of First National Bank in Pierre, S.D.

Approximately, 47.5% of bankers expect farm income to decline in the next 12 months. Roughly 36.8% anticipate little or no change in farm income, while the remaining 15.7% expect a slight increase in farm income over the 12-month period.

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August economic confidence index slumped to 31.6 from July’s 34.2.

“Weak grain prices, higher input costs and volatility stemming from the Iran war and tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on banker confidence,” Goss says.

Cattle futures continued trying to carve a bottom Wednesday, with pressure including steady to lower cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.38 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 38¢ lower to an average of 67¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to light on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $4 lower at $218/cwt. Dressed delivered prices are mostly steady at mainly $345. There was no established trade in the Southern Plains last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 97¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $378.78/cwt. Select was $6.87 lower at $353.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Wednesday on likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were  2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower, except for 6¢ higher in spot Sep. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, helped by easing oil prices and Treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 295 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 35 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 118 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 40¢ lower to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower Tuesday amid struggling cash fed cattle prices and higher feed costs.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.42 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, FOB live prices were $218-$222/cwt. and dressed delivered prices were mostly $345. There was no established trade in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 higher Tuesday afternoon at $379.75/cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $360.45.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher on Tuesday, supported by yield concerns, buyer demand and likely inflation hedging.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 28¢ to 30¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 16¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, as oil prices continued to rise due to the U.S.-Iran war and bond yields moved higher on inflation worries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 419 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 54 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 271 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.46 to $4.89 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment increased in August for the second consecutive month, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 9 points from 126 in July to 135, driven by optimism about the future.

The Index of Future Expectations increased 11 points month to month, while the Index of Current Conditions rose 1 point. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose from 90 at the beginning of the year to 103 in August, indicating increased optimism among respondents about their financial outlook for the next 12 months.

This month’s survey featured three questions regarding operator skills. The first asked respondents to identify the skill with the most return on investment for their farm, with production skills the most valued at 29%, followed by financial management and analysis at 23%, and strategic planning at 22%. The second question asked which skill their farm most needed to improve, with strategic planning at 28%, selling products at 20% and buying inputs at 19%. The third question asked which skills could be improved most through artificial intelligence, with strategic planning at 32%, financial management and analysis at 28%, and production at 18%.

“Producers are looking beyond the day-to-day management of their operations and thinking more strategically about the skills they need to succeed,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “The emphasis on strategic planning, both as an area for improvement and as a potential application for artificial intelligence, suggests producers see opportunities to use new tools to strengthen decision-making.”

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they believe the U.S. is moving in the ‘right direction’ or on the ‘wrong track.’ The average ‘right direction’ response was 71% in the final six months of 2025 and 62% in the first quarter of 2026. Since April, the percentage of producers who feel the U.S. is heading in the right direction has fluctuated between 51% and 57%. In August, 51% of respondents said the U.S. was moving in the right direction.

The Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from Aug. 10-14.

Cattle futures overcame more government intervention in the cattle business (see below) on Monday to eke out gains with oversold conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ higher except for an average of $1.07 lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, FOB live prices were $218-$222/cwt., which was $4-$7 lower in Nebraska and $3-$7 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $345, which was $10-$11 lower.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $5.76 lower at $219.25. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $10.12 lower at $345.42.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 41¢ lower Monday afternoon at $375.82/cwt. Select was $2.59 lower at $358.49.

Grain and Soybean closed futures were mixed on Monday.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were narrowly mixed, from fractionally lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 8¢ lower with likely profit taking.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, as oil prices increased on renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 374 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 25 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 31 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.41 to $2.77 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, announced the Ranchers First Initiative on Monday. Best as I can tell, among fictional statements and political hyperbole, it includes an initiative to provide price protection of breeding heifers through the Livestock Risk Protection program, allows producers to use the Emergency Conservation Program (ECP) on Grassland Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres and promotes programs aimed at supporting local and regional meat processing facilities.

There could be some positives in the array, but likely none as helpful as the government simply allowing the market to work … unimpeded.

“Adverse weather conditions combined with a barrage of news and uncertainty are keeping cattle markets down for the time being,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing Specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.  “Fed and feeder cattle prices will likely recover significantly if politicians will shut up and stop proposing actions that will not help cattle producers or beef consumers, in either the short run or the long run. Ever tighter cattle supplies and continued strong beef demand will reassert market fundamentals at some point.”

Peel notes the historically low feedlot placements and marketings in the last Cattle on Feed report will continue to decrease further going forward. 

“Despite limited signs of heifer retention, poor production conditions and tremendous uncertainty due to a whirlwind of political rhetoric and industry dynamics suggest that no herd rebuilding is likely for the foreseeable future,” Peel says. “Probably the best we can hope for is data that confirms that the liquidation has stopped.”