WLI

Cattle futures were mixed Wednesday. Feeder Cattle were likely supported by sliding Corn futures, while Live Cattle could have been pressured in part by squeamishness about Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Odds favor it showing increased feedlot placements year over year, given the likelihood of drought-driven early placements, as well as the fact it will be the first year-over-year comparison without Mexican feeder cattle imports both years. Cargill’s initiated lockout of union workers at its beef packing plant in Ft. Morgan, Colo., also added uncertinaty.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.84 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited on moderate demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to tend, there were some early live FOB trades at $260/cwt. in Kansas and at $265 in the western Corn Belt. There were also some early dressed delivered trades at $415 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $260-$265 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $410-$415 in Nebraska and mostly $410 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.13 lower Wednesday afternoon at $393.62/cwt. Select was $2.45 lower at $391.13.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with lower Crude Oil prices and confusion about the recently announced trade deal with China announced by the White House.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by lower Crude Oil prices and lower treasury yield rates. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 645 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 79 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 399 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $3.10 to $5.65 lower through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) provides perspective on how U.S. red meat exports also add value to domestic corn and soybean producers.

Nationally, U.S. beef and pork exports accounted for $2.18 billion in market value to corn producers in 2025, $375 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and $1 billion to soybean producers, according to an independent study conducted by the Juday Group. U.S. beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.5% per bushel to the value of corn and 10.3% per bushel to soybeans in 2025.

“Red meat exports bring significant value to corn and soybean producers by driving demand for feed,” says Dave Bruntz, USMEF Chair-Elect, who raises corn, soybeans and cattle in south-central Nebraska. “This study shows that red meat exports accounted for more than 500 million bushels of corn usage and nearly 100 million bushels of soybeans in 2025.”

Corn and soybean growers support the promotion of U.S. pork, beef and lamb by investing a portion of their checkoff dollars in market development efforts conducted by USMEF.

“We initiate this study every year because it quantifies the value that beef and pork exports bring to the red meat supply chain,” says John Hinners, USMEF Senior vice president. “This added value is why a diverse range of ag industry sectors work together through USMEF to build global demand for U.S. red meat.”

Cattle futures found some footing Tuesday, helped along by higher wholesale prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ higher (2¢ to $1.30 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $260-$265 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $410-$415 in Nebraska and mostly $410 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.61 higher Tuesday afternoon at $395.75/cwt. Select was $3.35 higher at $393.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed in the front end Tuesday as traders await more details about the announced deal for China to purchase more U.S. agricultural commodities.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were unchanged to fractionally higher. Corn futures were 1¢ lower to fractionally higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by rising treasury yield rates. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 322 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 220 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 7¢ to 55¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions eroded last week, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending May 17. Nationwide, 28% was rated as Good (25%) or Excellent (3%), compared to 31% the previous week and 40% the previous year. On the other end of the scale, 44% was in Poor (24%) or Very Poor condition (20%), which was 3% more than the previous week and 12% more than the same time last year.

States with 40% or more pasture and range ranked as Poor or Very Poor included: Arizona (63%), Colorado (66%), Florida (49%), Georgia (47%), Montana (50%), Nebraska (83%), New Mexico (60%), North Carolina (59%), South Carolina (53%), South Dakota (45%), Utah (42%), Virginia (61%), West Virginia (42%) and Wyoming (65%). Texas and Kansas were on the line at 39%.

Hay stocks on farms May 1 totaled 23.3 million tons, which was 804,000 tons less (-3.3%) year over year, according to the latest USDA Crop Production report.

Winter wheat condition continued to lose ground with 27% ranked in Good (22%) or Excellent (5%) condition, which was 25% less than the same time last year. Conversely, 43% was in Poor (25%) or Very Poor (18%) condition, compared to 40% the previous week and 18% at the same time last year.

Corn planting progress continued to be positive with 76% in the ground, which was the same as last year and 6% more than the five-year average.

Similarly, 67% of the soybean crop was planted, which was 4% more than a year earlier and 14% more than average.

Cattle futures trended lower Monday with pressure including more bearish outside markets and the strong rebound in Corn futures.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.43 lower (10¢ lower in spot May to $3.10 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt., mostly steady to $4 higher in Kansas and mainly $260, and steady to $5 higher in the North at $260-$265. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$13 higher in Nebraska at $410-$415 and mostly $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $410.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $4.33 higher at $262.85/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $8.57 higher at $411.07.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.89 higher Monday afternoon at $392.14/cwt. Select was 98¢ higher at $390.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday, boosted by details released by the White House, regarding last week’s U.S.-China trade talks. According to the White House Fact Sheet:

• China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitments that it made in October 2025.
• China restored market access for U.S. beef by renewing expired listings of more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and adding new listings. China will work with U.S. regulators to lift all suspensions of U.S. beef facilities.
• China resumed imports of poultry from U.S. states determined by the USDA to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 16¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 17¢ to 21¢ higher. Soybean futures were 29¢ to 35¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with pressure led by continued tech-stock selling. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 134 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 35¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) boosted expected feeder steer prices for the remainder of this year, in the May Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, based on recent data and tight calf supplies.

Compared to the previous month, projected prices for Medium and Large #1 steers selling at Oklahoma City, increased $13 in the third quarter to $380/cwt. and $15 in the fourth quarter to $384. The annual average price increased $10 to $377.22.

“Cattle prices in 2027 are expected to be modestly higher than the records currently forecast for 2026,” ERS analysts say. “This is based on a smaller anticipated calf crop in 2026 and more heifers retained for breeding to further tighten supplies available for placement in feedlots and for slaughter in 2027. The forecast for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma National Stockyards is $382/cwt, a 1% increase from 2026.”

With potential herd expansion in mind, based on inventories at the beginning of this year, ERS analysts explain the National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated that producers retained more heifers for their breeding herds year over year.

“An overall small calf crop and increased heifer retention for breeding will further constrict calf supplies available for placement in feedlots in late 2026 and the first half of 2027. This supports fewer feedlot cattle marketed for slaughter in 2027,” ERS analysts say. “In 2027, cow slaughter is also expected to decline as producers are anticipated to favor beef cow retention over culling from historically low beef cow inventories. This situation also supports a lower beef production forecast in 2027.”

On the other hand, those analysts note current pastureland conditions are the worst and the most widespread since the last drought period in 2021–22, which may limit expansion potential.

Cattle futures retrenched and gained Friday, boosted by the week’s higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices. Heading into the new week, there could be support from Friday’s late-day news that China appears to have opened the door to renewed beef imports from the U.S. (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.64 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.69 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.00 higher (25¢ higher to $5 higher in spot June), except for an average of 21¢ lower in the back two contracts.

During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.14 lower ($2.77 lower near the front to $7 lower at the back), except for $1.30 higher in spot May.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt to inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt., $5-$9 higher in Kansas at $265 and mainly $5 higher in the North at mostly $265. Dressed delivered prices were $13 higher in Nebraska at $415 and mostly $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $410.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 higher Friday afternoon at $389.25/cwt. Select was 25¢ higher at $389.25. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 86¢ higher and Select was $4.24 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 535,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 31,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.2 million head was 1 million head fewer (-9.3%) than the same time a year ago. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.2 billion pounds was 657 million pounds less (-6.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures stepped lower Friday with follow-through selling prompted by the lack of new trade commitments from China.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 19¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ lower through May ‘27. Corn futures closed mostly 7¢ to 11¢ lower; they were an average of 13’6¢ lower through the front six contracts, week to week on Friday.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by likely week-end profit taking in tech stocks, as well as the lack of hoped-for developments from recent U.S. China trade talks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 92 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 410 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.37 to $4.25 higher through the front six contracts.

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China paved the way to potentially resuming imports of U.S.

Though more details are forthcoming, China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) granted a five-year registration extension to 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s Food Import Food Establishment (CIFER) system, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) on Friday. Additionally, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations were added to the CIFER system with an effective date of May 15, 2026, and registrations are valid for five years. There are 38 beef establishments which remain suspended. Of the suspended facilities, 25 were also expired and are now renewed, but remain ineligible for export.

“Renewal of U.S. beef establishment registrations is a critical step forward for U.S. beef exports to China,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. We await more details and a further readout from USTR’s engagements with China and note with appreciation Ambassador Greer’s optimism for U.S. agricultural trade with China.

Cattle futures lost momentum on Thursday, despite higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ lower, except for an average of $1.96 higher in the back two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.30 lower, except for an average of 35¢ higher in three contracts toward either end of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to light on moderate demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade, compared to last week, FOB live prices are $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt. Elsewhere, FOB live prices are mostly $265/cwt., which is $5-$9 higher in Kansas, $5 higher in Nebraska, and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices are $13 higher in Nebraska at $415 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $410.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.23 lower Thursday afternoon at $387.45/cwt. Select was 42¢ higher at $389.00.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday, likely tied with disappointment in the lack of commodity news from the U.S.-China trade talks.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 19¢ to 20¢ lower. Corn futures were mostly 10¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 23¢ to 35¢ lower through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by tech stocks and supported by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks.  with primary support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 370 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 232 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to 82¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Between 2000 and 2025, the number of federally inspected beef packing plants (fed cattle and cow) with an annual capacity of 1 million head or more (largest plants) declined from 16 to 11, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. During the same period, the number of plants with an annual capacity of up to 100,000 head (smallest plants) increased from 683 to 888.

Total cattle slaughter last year of 29.252 million head was 6.4% less year over year and 13.1% less the recent cyclical peak in 2022, according to Peel. The largest plants harvested 47.3% of the total cattle, compared to 7.1% for the smallest.

“The general structure of the beef packing industry has been in place for nearly 35 years,” Peel says. “Beef packing in the U.S. consolidated rapidly in the 1980s and early 1990s. By 1993, the industry achieved a high level of concentration that has remained mostly constant since.”

Even so, Peel notes the largest plants account for a declining percentage of fed cattle slaughter since 2019, with the current percentage the smallest since 1994. He explains fed cattle slaughter was a record-high in 2000 at 29.6 million head. Last year it was 19.5% less at 23.8 million head.

“On average, fed slaughter is about 80% of total cattle slaughter,” Peel says, explaining the largest plants accounted for 58.1%  of fed slaughter last year. “Fed slaughter is currently 81.4% of total cattle slaughter, the highest percentage since 2007. Low cow slaughter since 2022 has increased the fed slaughter percentage.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.