WLI

About WLI

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far WLI has created 2053 blog entries.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 21, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon. Live trades were unevenly steady with last week at $110/cwt. Trade was limited on light demand in the Texas Panhandle, where there were a few live sales at $110, but too few to trend. Elsewhere, trade was inactive with very light demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 higher Wednesday afternoon at $218.91/cwt. Select was 84¢ higher at $207.28.

Live Cattle futures edged lower again Wednesday as the week’s cash outlook appears either side of steady, despite continued strength in wholesale beef prices. They closed an average of 39¢ lower, except for from 2¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, helped along by another day of retreat in grain futures. They closed an average of 79¢ higher, from 40¢ to $1.12 higher.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ‘22 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 21¢ lower.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 21, 2021 2021-01-20T19:12:25-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan, 21. 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon. Live trades were unevenly steady with last week at $110/cwt. Trade was limited on light demand in the Texas Panhandle, where there were a few live sales at $110, but too few to trend. Elsewhere, trade was inactive with very light demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 higher Wednesday afternoon at $218.91/cwt. Select was 84¢ higher at $207.28.

Live Cattle futures edged lower again Wednesday as the week’s cash outlook appears either side of steady, despite continued strength in wholesale beef prices. They closed an average of 39¢ lower, except for from 2¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, helped along by another day of retreat in grain futures. They closed an average of 79¢ higher, from 40¢ to $1.12 higher.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ‘22 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 21¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, amid stronger than expected quarterly earnings reports from the likes of Netflix and Disney. President Biden’s inauguration likely removed a layer of investor uncertainty, as well.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 257 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 260 points.

******************************

Retail beef prices for 2020 were 9.7% more than the prior year, the steepest increase since 2014, when prices climbed 13.4% year over year, according to David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University.

Anderson explains price increases in 2014 stemmed from tight supplies fostered by the drought. This year, much of it had to do with disruptions caused by the pandemic.

“Most of the increase in beef prices in 2020 occurred in the second quarter of the year, with price increasing 18% year over year. Beef prices also increased by 11% in the third quarter over the prior year,” Anderson says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “In the aftermath of the drought, beef prices registered five consecutive quarters of year over year increases as supplies continued to decline and demand grew. In case anyone wondered, 2016 and 2017 were the last years that average all fresh retail beef prices declined compared to the prior year.”

Anderson notes All Fresh retail beef prices last year were above 2019 the entire year. The pre-pandemic price in March averaged $5.96/lb. and finished the year at $6.23. It peaked in June at $7.38.

“Several factors may be contributing to higher reported retail prices when wholesale and live cattle prices have been at or below last year’s levels,” Anderson says. “The data reflects only grocery store prices. Grocery stores have sold more beef, in volume and value, compared to the year before, due to restaurant shutdowns. It’s also likely that costs have increased between wholesale and retail levels due to compliance with coronavirus restrictions and constraints in processing. It may be difficult to get average retail prices below pandemic levels in coming months as beef production is expected to decline cyclically this year and, hopefully, the economy is able to fully open expanding restaurant demand.

Cattle Current Daily—Jan, 21. 2021 2021-01-20T19:10:30-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 20, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in Kansas and the Northern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was very limited with very light demand; too few transactions to trend.

Feeder Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday, helped along by softer Corn and Soybean futures. Live Cattle mostly edged lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ lower, except for from 45¢ to $1.15 higher in the front three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.44 higher, except for 17¢ lower in spot Jan. That’s mainly an average of $3.46 higher in the last two trading sessions.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.45 higher through Tuesday afternoon at $217.49/cwt. Select was 60¢ higher at $206.44.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through the front six contracts, and then mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher toward the back.

Soybean futures closed 23¢ to 31¢ lower through the front four contracts, mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower through the next five contracts and then mostly 1¢ lower.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 20, 2021 2021-01-19T20:53:24-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 20, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in Kansas and the Northern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was very limited with very light demand; too few transactions to trend.

Feeder Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday, helped along by softer Corn and Soybean futures. Live Cattle mostly edged lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ lower, except for from 45¢ to $1.15 higher in the front three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.44 higher, except for 17¢ lower in spot Jan. That’s mainly an average of $3.46 higher in the last two trading sessions.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.45 higher through Tuesday afternoon at $217.49/cwt. Select was 60¢ higher at $206.44.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through the front six contracts, and then mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher toward the back.

Soybean futures closed 23¢ to 31¢ lower through the front four contracts, mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower through the next five contracts and then mostly 1¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, amid chatter from the pending new Administration about another round of economic stimulus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 116 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 198 points.

******************************

Although forecasts indicate increased year-over-year domestic red meat and poultry production, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) expect per capita meat disappearance to decline about 1%, due to increased exports and reduced beef imports.

“Availability is the disappearance on the domestic market of what remains after exports and ending stocks are subtracted from the sum of production, beginning stocks, and imports. Dividing this amount by the U.S. population yields per capita disappearance,” explain ERS analysts, in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO).

Beef production for this year was projected lower than the previous month at 27.2 billion lbs. but still would be more than in 2020.

“This adjustment was based in part on fewer fed cattle to be slaughtered in second-quarter 2021 as a result of lower expected placements in fourth-quarter 2020,” say ERS analysts. “Further, higher feed costs in 2021 are expected to negatively impact cattle carcass weights.”

According to USDA, from January through November of last year, total cattle slaughter was about 3% less than the previous year. Average carcass weights were about 3% heavier, though, which mostly offset decreased slaughter, in terms of beef production.

“Live steer prices in the five-area marketing region for the first week of January were reported at $111.27/cwt., more than $13 below last year for the same week and the lowest January starting price since 2011,” say ERS analysts. “However, the annual price forecast for 2021 was raised $0.50 to $115.50/cwt. on lower expected production and expected improved packer demand in 2021.”

USDA projects the average five-area direct fed steer price at $113 in the first and second quarters, at $115 in the third quarter and at $120 in the fourth quarter.

On the other end of the trade, ERS analysts say the average feeder steer price last year was about 5% less than the previous year at $135.45/cwt. That’s basis a 750-800 lb. steer selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards.

“Prices in the first two weeks of January 2021 averaged $134.81, about 7% below the monthly average for January 2020,” ERS analysts say. “To the extent that prices at the beginning of 2021 were higher than expected, the first-quarter 2021 forecast was raised $1 to $134/cwt. However, higher expected feed costs lowered expectations for prices the rest of the year, and as a result the annual price forecast for feeder steers was lowered $1 to $137.”

Specifically, the average feeder steer price is projected at $134/cwt. in the first and second quarters, $139 in the third quarter and $140 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $136.75.

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 20, 2021 2021-01-19T20:51:22-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 19, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were generally $1-$3 lower last week at $108-$111/cwt. Dressed prices were $1-$4 lower at $172-$174.

The average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $109.52/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.75 less than the previous week and $14.51 less than the same week last year. The average dressed steer price of $173.06 was $2.73 less than the prior week and $25.98 less than the prior year.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.12 higher Monday afternoon at $215.04/cwt. Select was $2.76 higher at $205.84.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 19, 2021 2021-01-18T20:53:57-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 19, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were generally $1-$3 lower last week at $108-$111/cwt. Dressed prices were $1-$4 lower at $172-$174.

The average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $109.52/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.75 less than the previous week and $14.51 less than the same week last year. The average dressed steer price of $173.06 was $2.73 less than the prior week and $25.98 less than the prior year.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.12 higher Monday afternoon at $215.04/cwt. Select was $2.76 higher at $205.84.

******************************

“As high feed prices push feedlot cost of gain up, feedlots have an incentive to buy more pounds and place heavier feeder cattle,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.  “Thus, the cattle industry responds to corn market signals to use less corn by placing cattle at heavier weights and using other (i.e. forage) feeds to add additional weight to cattle prior to feedlot placement. This is the advantage (and necessity!) of the cattle industry to use the ruminant capabilities of cattle to respond to the corn market situation. If all the cattle finished in feedlots in 2021 (that would have been fed anyway) are placed, say, an average of 100 lbs. heavier, the amount of reduction in total concentrate feed use is significant.”

Peel provides context for the extraordinary climb in feed costs—demand rationing—using cash corn prices in Dodge City, which averaged $3.41/bu. from January through September of last year. The price was more than $4 by mid-October and at $5.44 in mid-January.

“When feedlots demand heavier cattle, prices for lighter weight feeder cattle will decline relative to heavier cattle,” Peel explains. “For example, the price of 825 lb. steers in Oklahoma is currently about $131/cwt. When corn is, say, $3.65/bu., feedlots would be willing to pay roughly $155/cwt. for a 575 lb. steer, based on the cost of gain to put on the 250 lbs. from 575 to 825 lbs. When corn price increases to, say, $5.35/bu., the increased cost of gain means that the feedlot would only be willing to pay roughly $146/cwt. for a 575 lb. steer, even though the price of the 825 lb. steer has not changed.  Of course, higher feed prices likely also means that the overall feeder cattle price level will decline as well. 

“The change in feedlot demand for light versus heavy weight feeder cattle simultaneously provides incentives for stocker producers to add the needed additional weight to feeder cattle. In the example above, the value of stocker gain is roughly $0.75/lb. when corn is $3.65/bu. but increases to $0.97/lb. when corn price increases to $5.35/bu.

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 19, 2021 2021-01-18T20:51:54-06:00

Cattle Current Weekly Highlights—Week ending Jan. 15, 2021

Judging by auction reports throughout the week, calves and feeder cattle prices were pressured significantly, overall, by surging grain prices, weaker cash fed cattle prices and volatile Cattle futures. Dangerously high winds in the Dakotas also weighed on receipts and demand at some sales in that region.

The exception to weaker prices was in the Southeast, where states reporting on Friday (Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Mississippi), indicated feeder classes sold generally steady to $1-$5 higher.

The Agricultural Marketing Service will issue its summary from last week on Tuesday.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower through the front five contracts (20¢ to $1.25 lower) and then an average of $1.26 higher. That was with a bounce of an average of $2.02 higher on Friday.

“Since Christmas, January Feeder Cattle futures prices declined $8/cwt. Similarly, March Feeder Cattle futures contract prices are approximately $9 lower, while the August contract has only lost $5 over the same time period,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

Soybeans and Corn Climb Higher

Plenty of the aforementioned price pressure stems from the extraordinary and relentless increase in grain prices.

Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 30¢ higher through the front six contracts.

“Corn futures prices increased more than $1/bu. since the middle of December,” Griffith says. “If it is assumed that an animal will consume 50 bu. of corn while in the feedlot, then the $1 increase in price means it will cost $50 more in feed costs. That increase would essentially mean that a cattle feeder has to pay $6/cwt. less for an 800-pound steer, if everything else remains the same.”

That’s before considering corn basis, which appears to be strengthening, Griffith explains.

“The Corn futures rally is following soybeans higher, and cash has struggled to keep pace, widening the basis for this time of year. Although exports have been strong, the fundamentals are not currently holding ending stocks tight enough to justify $5 corn,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Still, there seems little to move the futures lower ahead of U.S. plantings and harvest in South America.”

USDA increased the forecast season-average corn price received by producers to $4.20/bu., in the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. That was 20¢more than the previous month, based on lower production and ending stocks.

Week to week on Friday, Soybean futures closed an average of 41¢ higher through the front six contracts. That’s right at an average of $1 higher for those contracts over the last two weeks.

USDA forecast the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020-21 60¢ higher at $11.15/bu. The soybean meal price was projected $20 higher at $390/short ton. The soybean oil price was forecast 2.5¢ higher at 38.5¢/lb. As with corn, lower estimated production and ending stocks contributed to the increase. 

“The impetus for surging prices (soybeans) has come from adverse crop development conditions in Argentina, the third largest soybean producing country and the leading exporter of soybean meal in the world,” LMIC analysts explain. “Reduced availability of soybeans and soybean products from Argentina is forcing the world to focus on U.S. soybean supplies. Projected exports of U.S. soybeans is expected to be a record at 2.2 billion bu. and soybean meal exports should be close to the record set last year at 14 million tons. As a result, inventories of soybeans at the end of this crop year (Aug. 31, 2021) will be close to 200-220 million bu., down from 909 million bu. two years earlier. 

“Tightening supplies support a rising price trend in order to bid more plantings of the crop in the U.S. this spring versus corn and cotton. The average price for soybeans this crop year is currently expected to be $11.50 but the risks to this forecast are all to the high side, depending on weather and the global economy in coming months. The potential for record high soybean prices in the $15-$20 area exists, based on possible market conditions.”

Fed Cattle Prices Soften

Despite the nascent and slow rebound in wholesale beef values, negotiated cash fed cattle prices struggled last week: generally $1-$3 lower at $108-$111/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Dressed prices were $1-$4 lower at $172-$174.

More specifically, live prices last week were at $112/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Colorado, $110-$111 in Nebraska and $110 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was at $172 in Nebraska and at $173-$174 in the western Corn Belt.

Through Thursday, the average five-area direct fed steer price was $109.52/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.96 less than the previous week and $14.48 less than the same week a year earlier. The average steer price in the beef was $173.06, which was $2.96 less than the previous week and $26.01 less than a year earlier.

Week to week on Friday, except for an average of $1.40 lower in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.33 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.12 higher at $212.92/cwt. week to week on Friday. Select was $6.36 higher at $203.08.

Griffith notes the rib and loin primal are driving the stronger beef market with both more than $11/cwt. higher week to week.

“The chuck and short plate are also providing some support for the higher price as the chuck is nearly $7 higher than last week and short plate values have increased more than $5,” Griffith says.

Looking further ahead, USDA lowered its 2021 forecast for total red meat and poultry production, compared to the previous month’s estimate, in the latest WASDE.

Even so, total estimated red meat and poultry production for 2021 is forecast 634 million lbs. more than in 2020 (+0.60%) at 107.10 billion lbs.

Beef production for 2021 is forecast at 27.19 billion lbs., which would be 32 million lbs. more (+0.11%) than in 2020, with higher non-fed cattle slaughter more than offsetting lighter expected cattle carcass weights.

WASDE estimated the average five-area direct fed steer price for last year at $108.51/cwt. Fed steer prices for 2021 are projected to be $113 in the first and second quarters, $115 in the third quarter and $120 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $115.50, which was 50¢ more than the previous month’s forecast.

Friday to Friday Change

Weekly Auction Receipts

Most recent week available.

Jan. 9 Auction Direct

Video/net

Total
 

349,800

(+112,600)

40,300

(-1,700)

87,300

(+60,600)

477,400

(+171,500)

 

CME Feeder Index

Thursday through Thursday…

CME Feeder Index* Jan. 15 Change
  $135.45 –   0.18

*Wednesday-to Wednesday for CME Feeder Index

 

Cash Stocker and Feeder

Most recent week available.

North Central

Steers-Cash Jan. 8 Change
600-700 lbs. $151.54 +  $4.76
700-800 lbs. $141.00 +  $4.19
800-900 lbs. $134.78 +  $2.30

South Central

Steers-Cash Jan. 8 Change
500-600 lbs. $157.32 + $0.06
600-700 lbs. $142.31 –  $2.48
700-800 lbs. $134.55 –  $3.08

Southeast

Steers-Cash Jan. 8 Change
400-500 lbs. $151.95 –  $1.38
500-600 lbs. $142.66 + $1.94
600-700 lbs. $131.91 + $2.96

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

 

Wholesale Beef Value

Boxed Beef  (p.m.) Jan. 15 ($/cwt) Change
Choice $212.92 + $6.12
Select $203.08 + $6.36
Ch-Se Spread $9.84 –  $0.27

 

Futures

Feeder Cattle  Jan. 15 Change
Jan  $134.575 –  $1.250
Mar $135.825 –  $1.000
Apr $138.300 –  $0.775
May $140.250 –  $0.375
Aug $147.500 –  $0.200
Sep $149.350 + $0.850
Oct  $150.250 + $1.225
Nov $150.475 + $1.725

 

Live Cattle   Jan. 15 Change
Feb $112.775 –  $1.700
Apr $118.200 –  $1.100
Jun $116.275 + $1.000
Aug $117.025 + $2.200
Oct $120.825 + $2.400
Dec $123.475 + $2.775
Feb ’22 $124.750 + $2.550
Apr $125.750 + $2.750
Jun $121.375 + $3.625

 

Corn  Jan. 15 Change
Mar ’21 $5.314 + $0.352
May $5.346 + $0.372
Jly $5.320 + $0.374
Sep $4.854 + $0.290
Oct $4.600 + $0.196
Mar ’22 $4.654 + $0.198

 

Oil CME-WTI Jan. 15 Change
Feb $52.36 + $0.12
Mar $52.42 + $0.16
Apr $52.36 + $0.17
May $52.23 + $0.19
Jun $52.04 + $0.22
Jly $51.82 + $0.28

 

Equities

Equity Indexes Jan. 15 Change
Dow Industrial Average  30814.26 –    283.71
NASDAQ  12998.50 –    204.37
S&P 500   3768.25 –      56.43
Dollar (DXY)       90.78 +       0.71
Cattle Current Weekly Highlights—Week ending Jan. 15, 2021 2021-01-17T12:17:51-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 18, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains and Colorado through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Live prices were generally $1-$3 lower last week at $108-$111/cwt. Dressed prices were $1-$4 lower at $172-$174.

Through Thursday, the average five-area direct fed steer price was $109.52/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.96 less than the previous week and $14.48 less than the same week a year earlier. The average steer price in the beef was $173.06, which was $2.96 less than the previous week and $26.01 less than a year earlier.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ lower Friday afternoon at $212.92/cwt. Select was $2.01 higher at $203.08. 

Total estimated cattle slaughter for the week of 651,000 head was the same as a week earlier and 18,000 head more than the same week a year earlier. Estimated beef production for the week of 544.8 million lbs. was 22.3 million lbs. more than the previous year.

The average dressed steer weight the week of Jan. 2 of 920 lbs. was 7 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 8 lbs. heavier than the same week a year earlier, according to the USDA Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight of 851 lbs. was 12 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 19 lbs. heavier than the prior year.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday. Bottom feeding might be one of the drivers, as was stronger wholesale beef values, rising open interest and a pause to increasing Corn futures.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ higher, from 45¢ to $1.32 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 higher.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower through the front three contracts, and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 13¢ lower through the front three contracts, and then mostly 1¢ to 5¢ higher.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 18, 2021 2021-01-16T20:03:48-06:00

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 18, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains and Colorado through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Live prices were generally $1-$3 lower last week at $108-$111/cwt. Dressed prices were $1-$4 lower at $172-$174.

For the week:

Texas Panhandle: $110-$111/cwt.  1-2 lower

Kansas: $109-$111  1-3 lower

Nebraska: $109-$110 on a live basis; $172 dressed. Steady to 1 lower and $4 lower

Colorado: $109 1-2 lower

Western Corn Belt: $108-$109 on a live basis; $173-$174 dressed.

Through Thursday, the average five-area direct fed steer price was $109.52/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.96 less than the previous week and $14.48 less than the same week a year earlier. The average steer price in the beef was $173.06, which was $2.96 less than the previous week and $26.01 less than a year earlier.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ lower Friday afternoon at $212.92/cwt. Select was $2.01 higher at $203.08. 

Total estimated cattle slaughter for the week of 651,000 head was the same as a week earlier and 18,000 head more than the same week a year earlier. Estimated beef production for the week of 544.8 million lbs. was 22.3 million lbs. more than the previous year.

The average dressed steer weight the week of Jan. 2 of 920 lbs. was 7 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 8 lbs. heavier than the same week a year earlier, according to the USDA Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight of 851 lbs. was 12 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 19 lbs. heavier than the prior year.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday. Bottom feeding might be one of the drivers, as was stronger wholesale beef values, rising open interest and a pause to increasing Corn futures.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ higher, from 45¢ to $1.32 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 higher.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower through the front three contracts, and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 13¢ lower through the front three contracts, and then mostly 1¢ to 5¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday. Pressure included a more negative outlook of consumer retail sales than the trade expected. Also, increasing global movement restrictions, due to escalating COVID-19 cases, weighed on the energy sector.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December were 0.7% less than the previous month, but 2.9% more than the previous year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 177 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 114 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $1.05 to $1.21 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

“Much uncertainty continues but assuming no major new global health or economic disruptions, U.S. beef trade is expected to be supportive in 2021,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments (Jan. 11).

As reported in Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports stormed back in November, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

November beef exports totaled 115,337 metric tons (mt), up 6% from a year earlier and the most since July 2019. Export value climbed 8% year-over-year to $707.5 million.

“Demand for U.S. beef in the global retail sector has been outstanding and we expect this to continue in 2021,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Unfortunately, foodservice continues to face COVID-related challenges. We expect a broader foodservice recovery this year, especially from mid-2021, but will likely still see interruptions in some markets.”

Through November, beef exports were 6% lower year-over-year in volume (1.13 million mt) and down 7% in value ($6.9 billion). January-November muscle cut exports were 3% below 2019 in volume (883,012 mt) and 6% lower in value ($6.11 billion).

“Beef exports are forecast to be modestly higher year over year, returning roughly to 2019 levels. Beef imports are currently forecast to decrease from the 2020 spike to pre-COVID levels or perhaps a bit lower,” Peel says. “Numerous factors will affect U.S. and global beef trade in 2021 including exchange rates, continuing demand for beef in China, the rebuilding of the Australian beef industry, continuing trade tensions between China and Australia/New Zealand and Mexico’s economic situation.”

Cattle Current Daily—Jan. 18, 2021 2021-01-16T20:01:11-06:00

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 15, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in Colorado through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was limited on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

For the week so far:

Texas Panhandle: $110-$111/cwt.

Kansas: $109-$110

Nebraska: $109-$110 on a live basis; $172 dressed.

Colorado: $109

Western Corn Belt: $108-$109 on a live basis; $173-$174 dressed.

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday, with Feeder Cattle losing ground beneath the weight of another surge higher in grain prices, while more positive supply fundamentals in the second quarter helped bolster deferred Live Cattle.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher, except for an average of 19¢ lower in the front three.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ lower except for 15¢ higher in the back contract.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.37 higher Thursday afternoon at $213.37/cwt. Select was $2.01 higher at $201.07.

Strong exports continue to support corn and soybean prices, according to the latest USDA U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending Jan. 7.

Net U.S. corn export sales of 1.44 million metric tons (mt) for 2020-21 were 92% more than the previous week and 34% more than the prior four-week average.

Net U.S. soybean export sales of 908,000 mt for 2020-21 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 93% from the prior four-week average.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ higher through the front three contracts, and then 1¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 25¢ higher through Jan ‘22, and then mostly 10¢ to 16¢ higher.

Cattle Current Podcast—Jan. 15, 2021 2021-01-14T19:24:47-06:00

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.