WLI

Cattle futures finally found some traction on Monday, boosted technical buying, more bullish outside markets and a couple of announcements.

First, union workers at the major West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, voted to extend contract negotiations through Nov. 20, averting, at least for now, a strike that would have slowed U.S. meat exports.

Next, Tyson Foods announced its intent to establish a new long-term partnership with Allied Beef Company, a consortium of American ranchers. In anticipation of the partnership, Tyson Foods is moving forward with plans to fully reopen the second production shift at its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility. The company has already begun restoring select second-shift operations and expects the shift to be fully operational by summer 2027.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.01 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.30 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the bulk of regional trade last week, FOB live prices were $7 lower in the South Central region at $218/cwt., $6-$8 lower in Nebraska at mostly $216-$218 and $6-$14 lower in the western Corn Belt at $210-$218. Dressed delivered prices were $12-$22 lower in Nebraska at $330-$340 and $8-$25 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $340.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $8.30 lower at $215.43. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $13.80 lower at $338.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.95 higher Monday afternoon at $352.74/cwt. Select was 17¢ higher at $353.73.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with likely skittishness ahead of Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher on Monday, helped by sliding oil prices and a bounce-back in tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,104 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 173 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 673 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were $2.93 to $4.08 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures eroded further Friday, as cash prices continued to decline.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ lower and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.05 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $8.35 lower. They were an average of $16.38 lower over the last two weeks. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $11.65 lower week to week on Friday and an average of $25.97 lower over the last two weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in the South Central region to light on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Prices eroded as the week progressed.

Across the week, FOB live prices were $7 lower in the South Central region at $218/cwt., $7-$10 lower in Nebraska at mainly $214-$217 and $6-$14 lower in the western Corn Belt at $210-$218. Dressed delivered prices were $12-$22 lower in Nebraska at $330-$340 and $8-$25 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $340.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 77¢ lower Friday afternoon at $360.79/cwt. Select was $1.24 higher at $353.56. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.87 lower but Select was $1.58 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 534,000 head was 9,000 head fewer than the previous week and 35,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 23.3 million head was 1.8 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 20.8 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.9%).

Short covering and position squaring ahead of next week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates helped Corn and Soybeans futures firm and gain on Friday.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ’27 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Mar ’28 due in part to declining in war premium. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, helped along by a more positive employment outlook than expected.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 14¢ to $38.00. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 264 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were 31¢ to $1.24 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although short cattle numbers support higher prices, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University emphasizes consumer beef demand is at the core of producer viability and the ultimate size of the U.S. beef cattle industry.

Tonsor points out the retail All-Fresh beef demand Index set a record in 2025. Based on analysis by colleague Brian Coffey, and others, for each 1% increase in retail beef demand, fed cattle prices increase by 1.5% and feeder cattle prices by 2.5%.

“This improvement in consumer demand did not happen by accident, freely or easily,” Tonsor explains in the Nov. 2 issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Over recent decades, the industry moved away from pricing cattle on the average and toward grid and other value-based marketing that differentially pays premiums for carcasses based on what consumers value. Allowing prices to serve as signals rewarded genetics, management and feeding decisions that improved the product many enjoy today.”

Tonsor notes the share of fed cattle grading Choice or Prime increased from 65% to 84% between 2010 and 2025 with the share of Prime tripling to 12%.

“Better and more consistent eating experiences encourage repeat consumer purchases and support higher willingness-to-pay. Market signals led to industry change, a better product, stronger demand and better prices,” Tonsor says. He adds that market-signal adjustments continue and are further refined and motivated by today’s elevated prices.

In other words, none of this evolution or that to come occurs in a vacuum.

“The key point here is that nothing happens in isolation, as inner-industry workings are

both complex and reflect price-signaled adjustments, when allowed,” Tonsor explains. “The historical improvement in consumer beef demand, value-based price signals from seedstock to plate and fed cattle marketings are clearly linked.”

Cattle futures continued lower Thursday, pressured by lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and the sharp Wall Street selloff.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.84 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.36 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the South Central region through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade in the north ranged from light on light demand in Nebraska to light to moderate on moderate to good demand in the Western Corn Belt.

Based on the last established trade, relative to last week, FOB live prices are $7 lower in the South Central region at $218/cwt., mostly $10 lower in Nebraska at mainly $214 and $9.50-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $210-$214.50. Dressed delivered prices are $14-$17 lower in Nebraska at $335-$338 and $8-$25 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $340.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 94¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $361.56/cwt. Select was $4.33 lower at $352.32.

Grain futures were lower Thursday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.  Soybean futures were 12¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices slid sharply lower Thursday, led by tech stocks, especially those related to AI, as investors feared a slowdown in data center construction, based on results of the mid-term election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,833 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 334 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 1,421 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were 41¢ to $2.63 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continue to gain more traction year over year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). September volume was 1% higher at 81,310 metric tons (mt) and value increased 8% to $712.4 million.

Robust performance in Taiwan and year-over-year increases in South Korea led the stronger performance. September export value also increased to Japan, the Middle East and South America despite lower volumes. However, shipments were below last year in volume and value to Mexico, Canada and Central America. Exports to China were above the minimal volume shipped a year ago but remained far below the levels seen in previous years when U.S. beef had relatively strong access to the market.

Through the first three quarters of 2026, beef exports were steady with last year’s value at just over $7 billion, while volume fell 6% to 802,460 mt.

Beef export value equated to $391.43 per head of fed slaughter in September, up 16% from a year ago. The January-September average was $426.60 per head, up 8%.

“Beef exports were once again encouraging in September, as global customers continue to show a powerful and loyal appetite for U.S. beef,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “While consumers everywhere are feeling the pinch of higher household expenses, they still prioritize high-quality protein in their daily diet. The U.S. beef industry is well-positioned to meet this need, providing the consistent value that consumers expect, in a wide range of markets. Economic situations in those markets also vary widely. For example, U.S. beef is certainly benefiting from Taiwan’s strong economic performance.”

For broader perspective, U.S. pork exports were below year-ago levels for the fifth consecutive month, due in part to a sharp decline in variety meat shipments. September pork exports totaled 216,353 mt, down 7.5% from a year ago, while value fell 13.5% to $591.3 million.

Cattle futures weakened further Wednesday with technical pressure and the week’s sharply lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.77 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were a few dressed delivered trades at $335-$338/cwt. Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were a few FOB live trades in at $215-$218.

Based on the last established trend, FOB live prices are mostly $7 lower in Nebraska at mainly $217 and $6-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at $216-$218. Dressed delivered prices are $12 lower in Nebraska at mostly $340 and $8-$25 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $340.

Trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the South Central region where FOB live prices last week were $225.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.73 lower Wednesday afternoon at $362.50/cwt. Select was $1.72 lower at $356.65.

Grain futures were mixed Wednesday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday boosted by less political uncertainty and sliding oil prices, both related to results of the mid-term elections.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,569 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 119 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 364 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were $5.95 to $7.61 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures weakened Tuesday with technical pressure, lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and political uncertainty related to the mid-term elections.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.64 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light demand in Nebraska through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Early dressed delivered sales were $12 lower at $340/cwt. FOB live prices there last week were mostly $224.

Trade was limited on light demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early live trades at $215. Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $224 and dressed delivered prices were $348-$365.

Trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the South Central region where last week’s FOB live price was mostly $225.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 19¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $365.23/cwt. Select was $3.43 higher at $358.37.

Grain futures were lower Tuesday with no reasons for a bounce and wait-and-see approach to the elections.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday, with support from a reversal higher in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 197 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 207 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were 21¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.