WLI

Cattle futures boomeranged back Wednesday, helped by oversold conditions and lower corn futures prices. 

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.31 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.02 higher, except for 87¢ lower in waning spot Sep.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $222-$223/cwt. in Nebraska and mainly $222 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 lower Wednesday afternoon at $377.31/cwt. Select was $5.51 lower at $352.34.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday, perhaps with position squaring ahead of the meeting between leaders of the U.S. and China.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday as Treasury yield rates, crude oil prices and inflation worries turned higher once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 352 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 58 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 308 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices (CME) were $1.14 to $2.40 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures pulled back Tuesday, with some likely profit taking from the previous session’s strong gains. 

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.90 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.94 lower, except unchanged in the front contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $222-$223/cwt. in Nebraska and mainly $222 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.54 higher Tuesday afternoon at $378.89/cwt. Select was $2.08 higher at $357.85.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, with likely profit taking and less war risk premium for the day.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts,

Soybean futures were 3¢ lower.

Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 15¢ lower.

Cattle futures stepped confidently higher Monday, buoyed by Friday’s Cattle on Feed report with placements 9.2% less year over year and 6.5% less than pre-report estimates with snug supplies ahead (see below). 

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $5.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.31 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $1 lower in Nebraska at mainly $222-$223/cwt. and mostly steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $222. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $350.

The weekly weighted average FOB live fed steer price was 95¢ less at $221.87. The weighted average dressed, delivered fed steer price was 56¢ lower at $350.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.41 higher Monday afternoon at $376.35/cwt. Select was $2.51 higher at $355.77.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday, with apparent optimism for this week’s scheduled trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ higher. Corn futures were 13¢ to 15¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 10¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, as crude oil prices and Treasury Yield rates declines. AI-related stocks also added support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 366 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 114 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 599 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices (CME) were $1.63 to $4.74 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although feedlot inventories Sept. 1 were higher year over year, according to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, maintaining inventories will be increasingly difficult going forward, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Feeder supplies are expected to tighten into 2027 with a smaller calf crop,” Peel explains in his weekly marketing comments. “Resumption of Mexican cattle imports may relieve some of the pressure, at least regionally. Delayed beef cow culling the past three years means that more replacement heifers will be needed just to stabilize the cow herd with additional heifers needed for any potential herd rebuilding. The feedlot marketing rate may stay low but is unlikely to keep dropping as it has in the past 18 months. In that case, lower placements will push feedlot inventories lower in the coming months.”

For perspective on the current cattle cycle, Peel explains the calf crop peaked in 2018 at 36.29 million head. It has declined for eight consecutive years since then, with this year’s calf crop estimated at 32.5 million head, down 3.79 million head from the cyclical peak. 

However, he notes cattle on feed inventories have remained relatively high, peaking in September 2022 and then declining to a recent low of 11.4 million head in April of this year, which was 480,000 head fewer or just 4% less.

“Feedlot inventories have remained elevated due to a slow marketings rate,” Peel says.  “The feedlot marketings rate – the percentage of inventory marketed each month – was at 16.0% in July 2023, having averaged 16.0% since 2018. The average marketings rate began declining and dropped below 15.0% in October 2025. The 12-month average marketing rate in August 2026 was a record-low 14.1%. The low marketing rate has even allowed on-feed totals to be higher year over year for the last five months. The sharp decrease in placements in July and August likely means that feedlot inventories will drop below year-earlier levels soon and for the foreseeable future.”

The slower marketing rate, mostly accomplished by feeding cattle longer, also has driven average carcass weights significantly higher. For instance, average year-over-year steer carcass weights were 23 pounds heavier in 20024, 24 pounds heavier in 2025 and are 32 pounds heavier so far this year, according to Peel.

“From 1960-2022 the average annual increase in steer carcass weights was 4.0 pounds per year. Though there have been individual years of significant increase in carcass weight, there have never been multiple years of much heavier carcasses,” Peel says. “The roughly 75-pound increase in steer carcass weights in the last three years is equivalent to the increase over the previous 18 years.

“The dramatic increase in carcass weights has also resulted in sharply decreased average yield grades. Recent data shows that the average Y4/5 percentage for the past 12 months is 29.2%, more than double the rate just six years ago.”

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.

Cattle futures sputtered Friday and ended the week lower with apparent squeamishness about the Cattle on Feed report that was published after the session and wonderment about the impact of next week’s resumption of Mexican feeder cattle imports through the port of entry at Santa Teresa, New Mexico Sept. 24. Turned out that the Cattle on Feed report was friendly (see below) and could support a bounce higher when the new week begins.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 42¢ lower, except for an average of 24¢ higher in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.31 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $5.90 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $10.57 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light to moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $222.50/cwt.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in Nebraska at $222-$223/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $222. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 21¢ lower Friday afternoon at $371.94/cwt. Select was $1.38 higher at $353.26. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.00 lower and Select was 13¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 529,000 head was 24,000 more than the previous week but 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 19.5 million head was 1.6 million head fewer (-7.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.4 billion pounds was 938.6 million pounds less (-5.1%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Friday with likely positioning ahead of the weekend and trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Soybean futures closed 13¢ to 17¢ lower through Sep ’27 and then 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 10¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday, with pressure including Treasury Yield rates rising again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 95 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 104 points.

WTI were mixed through the front six contracts, from $1.61 lower to 63¢ higher.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as friendly, with fewer placements and a smaller inventory than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.6 million head in August, which was 163,000 head fewer (-9.2%) year over year and the fewest for the month since the data series began in 1996. Placements were 6.5% less than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 35% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 19% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.5 million head were 52,000 head fewer (-3.3%). That was also the fewest for the month since the data series began in 1996 and slightly more than pre-report expectations.

Feedlot inventory Sept. 1 of 11.2 million head was 83,000 head more than the previous year (0.7%) but about 1% less than expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday, with steady to lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the estimates considered, analysts expect August placements to be down about 3%, August marketing to be about 4% less and the Sept. 1 cattle on feed inventory to be about 2% higher year over year.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.52 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.25 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light-to-moderate on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were steady to $1 lower at mostly $223/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $222 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Thursday afternoon at $372.15/cwt. Select was $2.69 lower at $351.88.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Thursday, perhaps with the lack of news direction and positioning ahead of the weekend.

Through late afternoon and the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to fractionally higher. Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced back Thursday, supported by tech stocks and declining oil prices and Treasury Yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 316 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 85 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 439 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) slashed projected feeder steer prices for the remainder of this year and next in the September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO).

Compared to the previous month, prices were forecast $13 lower in the third quarter to $250/cwt. and $30 in the fourth quarter to $335 for an annual average price of $357.01, which was $10.75 lower. Prices are basis a Medium and Large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards.

“External forces are putting pressure on cattle markets, contributing to weaker prices,” ERS analysts say. “While the recent expansion of quotas allowing for reduced tariffs on imported lean beef trimmings adds to the mix, its direct impact on cattle prices is expected to be limited. That is because other major forces—like tight cattle supplies and less packing capacity—are still the main drivers of the market. Even so, supply fundamentals are expected to support cattle prices and limit declines in the coming year.”

For next year, compared to the previous month, feeder steer prices were forecast $30 lower in the first quarter to $340 and $35 in the second quarter to $340 for an annual average price of $342.50, which was $31.25 lower.

As noted in Cattle Current last week, the ERS sliced expected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices for the second half of this year and the first half of 2027 in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Price forecasts declined on lower-than-expected packer demand.

“Monthly cattle slaughter has been running at historically low levels, ERS analysts explain in the latest LDPO. “Through August, U.S. slaughter per weekday has been running on average 8,000 head fewer per weekday than last year. This aligns with today’s smaller cattle herd and reduced feeder cattle imports from Mexico.”

Compared to the previous month, projected fed steer prices declined $12 in the third quarter to $230/cwt. and $10 in the fourth quarter to $225. This year’s forecast annual average price declined $8 to $237.75.

Next year’s projected annual average price was $11 lower at $238 with the first-quarter prices $10 lower at $235 and the second-quarter price $15 lower at $235.

That was with this year’s estimated beef production at 24.9 billion pounds, which would be 1.1 billion pounds less than last year (-4.3%).