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Cattle Current Podcast—June 12, 2024

Cattle futures softened Tuesday as traders awaited weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 99¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $318.21/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $300.62/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday, with likely positioning ahead of Wednesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Heading toward the close, through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower. 

Cattle Current Podcast—June 12, 2024 2024-06-11T17:53:59-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—June 12, 2024

Cattle futures softened Tuesday as traders awaited weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 99¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $318.21/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $300.62/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday, with likely positioning ahead of Wednesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Heading toward the close, through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices settled mixed Tuesday, with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 120 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 151 points.

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Expectations for continued historically strong domestic consumer beef demand will pave the way to record-high retail beef prices this summer as production declines, according to Rabobank’s Global Beef Quarterly for the second quarter.

RaboResearch analysts point out the U.S. all-fresh beef retail price in April was record-high at $7.95 per pound and demand was the second highest in the past three decades.

At the same time, those analysts note prices for calves, feeder cattle and fed cattle were record-high or near record-high in March. They expect calf and fed cattle prices to trend sideways through the summer, while feeder cattle prices strengthen.

Globally, Rabobank forecasts declining beef production in the U.S. and Europe will overshadow anticipated production increases in Australia and Brazil.

“The global cattle market is currently moving at two distinct paces,” according to Angus Gidley-Baird, Rabobank Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “North American markets are hovering near record highs amid the contraction in local production, while other regions are experiencing more subdued pricing. Europe finds itself in the middle ground, despite a recent uptick in production. These regional disparities are beginning to influence international trade flows, with the U.S. ramping up its import volumes and major Asian markets maintaining steady import levels.”

Cattle Current Daily—June 12, 2024 2024-06-11T17:52:12-05:00

Cattle Current Podcast—June 11, 2024

Cattle futures extended support from the previous session, buoyed by recently stronger wholesale beef prices and prospects of higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $190 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $301 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.42/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $301.04/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Monday, perhaps with some positioning ahead of this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jly ’25 and Soybean futures fractionally higher to 8¢ higher through near Nov. However, nearby Kansas City Wheat futures were 19¢ to 24¢ lower with likely harvest pressure.

Cattle Current Podcast—June 11, 2024 2024-06-10T19:20:10-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—June 11, 2024

Cattle futures extended support from the previous session, buoyed by recently stronger wholesale beef prices and prospects of higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $190 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $301 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.42/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $301.04/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Monday, perhaps with some positioning ahead of this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jly ’25 and Soybean futures fractionally higher to 8¢ higher through near Nov. However, nearby Kansas City Wheat futures were 19¢ to 24¢ lower with likely harvest pressure.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.18 to $2.70 higher through the front six contracts on projections of summer demand exceeding supplies.

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While fed cattle beef production continues higher than anticipated due to longer feeding periods and the slower packer pace, non-fed beef production is sharply lower so far this year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Total cow slaughter is down 14.1% year over year through the first 21 weeks of the year, with dairy cow slaughter down 13.4% and beef cow slaughter down 14.8% from last year,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “Cow carcass weights are averaging 646.8 pounds, up 10 pounds over one year ago. Bull slaughter is down 7.0% year over year, with bull carcass weights up 28.7 pounds year over year and averaging 892 pounds.” 

Conversely, Peel explains fed cattle slaughter is 4.5% less year over year and fed cattle beef production is 2.0% less.

All told, Peel says total non-fed slaughter through May was down 13.6% and total non-fed beef production was down 12.0%, or 1.69 billion pounds less. He adds that non-fed beef makes up 20% of total beef production, on average. 

“Fed cattle slaughter is expected to decrease more in late 2024, though carcass weights will likely remain elevated,” Peel says. “Heifer retention may be starting, which would lead to a larger decline in heifer slaughter by the end of the year. Beef cow slaughter may also drop more sharply in the last part of the year. Herd rebuilding typically results in decreased heifer and beef cow slaughter. Moisture conditions through the summer and into the fall will be critical to determine if, and how much, herd rebuilding gets started and the impact on 2024 beef production.”

Hear more of Peel’s insights here.

Cattle Current Daily—June 11, 2024 2024-06-10T18:38:33-05:00

Cattle Current Podcast—June 10, 2024

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the North.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt. and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $190. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $190.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Friday afternoon at $316.75/cwt. Select was 31¢ higher at $301.14/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was up $3.55 but Select was 57¢ lower.

Total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 74,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 13.7 million head was 631,000 head fewer (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.6 billion pounds was 198.4 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Cattle futures found some footing Friday, helped along by firm wholesale beef prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts. They were an average of $1.33 lower week to week on Friday, except for 62¢ higher in spot June.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher. However, they were an average of $1.75 lower week to week on Friday.

Grain and Soybean futures weakened Friday on likely fund selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures 12¢ to 20¢ lower through near Sep and then 2¢ to 9¢ lower.

Cattle Current Podcast—June 10, 2024 2024-06-09T16:31:24-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—June 10, 2024

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the North.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt. and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $190. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $190.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Friday afternoon at $316.75/cwt. Select was 31¢ higher at $301.14/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was up $3.55 but Select was 57¢ lower.

Total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 74,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 13.7 million head was 631,000 head fewer (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.6 billion pounds was 198.4 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Cattle futures found some footing Friday, helped along by firm wholesale beef prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts. They were an average of $1.33 lower week to week on Friday, except for 62¢ higher in spot June.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher. However, they were an average of $1.75 lower week to week on Friday.

Grain and Soybean futures weakened Friday on likely fund selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures 12¢ to 20¢ lower through near Sep and then 2¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled slightly lower Friday with pressure including a stronger than expected labor report.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little- changed at 4.0%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 14¢ to $34.91. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 87 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports in April were the largest in 10 months at 111,580 metric tons (mt), according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export value was 5% more year over year at $898.7 million, which was also the highest level since last June.

Through the first four months of 2024, beef export value increased 5% year-over-year to $3.38 billion, despite a 3% decline in volume (423,445 mt).

“Mexico continued to shine on the beef side, along with the Caribbean, Central America and the Middle East,” according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “These markets are benefiting from foodservice demand and currency advantages compared to the main Asian markets. The headwinds in Asia remain formidable, but the tourism boom in Japan has helped solidify demand and exports have stabilized this year, despite the continued weakness in the yen and strong competition from Australia. Robust retail and e-commerce demand has helped U.S. chilled beef continue to dominate in Korea and Taiwan.”

April beef export value equated to $416.87 per head of fed slaughter, down 6% from a year ago, but the January-April average was still up 5% to $410.25.

April exports of U.S. pork reached the highest volume and value since May 2021. Pork exports totaled 277,910 metric tons (mt) in April, up 14% from a year ago and the fifth largest on record. Export value climbed 18% to $778.8 million, the third highest on record.

Cattle Current Daily—June 10, 2024 2024-06-09T16:29:17-05:00

Cattle Current Podcast—June 7, 2024

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 lower at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 higher Thursday afternoon at $316.21/cwt. Select was 7¢ lower at $300.83/cwt.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday heading into the close, pressured by the weaker outlook for cash prices this week and surge in Corn futures. Live Cattle futures were 90¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.00 lower, except for 17¢ higher in spot Jun.

Corn and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday on likely short covering.

Heading into the close, through Jly ‘25, Corn futures were 9¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher.

Cattle Current Podcast—June 7, 2024 2024-06-06T19:14:28-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—June 7, 2024

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 lower at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 higher Thursday afternoon at $316.21/cwt. Select was 7¢ lower at $300.83/cwt.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday heading into the close, pressured by the weaker outlook for cash prices this week and surge in Corn futures. Live Cattle futures were 90¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.00 lower, except for 17¢ higher in spot Jun.

Corn and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday on likely short covering.

Heading into the close, through Jly ‘25, Corn futures were 9¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed and little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 78 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.31 to $1.47 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle Current Daily—June 7, 2024 2024-06-06T19:12:36-05:00

Cattle Current Podcast—June 6, 2024

Cattle futures were lower heading into the close Wednesday with pressure including lower wholesale beef values and a lack of cash direction for the week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.04 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.79/cwt. Select was $3.57 lower at $300.90/cwt.

Grain futures continued to unwind Wednesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

Cattle Current Podcast—June 6, 2024 2024-06-05T19:34:26-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—June 6, 2024

Cattle futures were lower heading into the close Wednesday with pressure including lower wholesale beef values and a lack of cash direction for the week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.04 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.79/cwt. Select was $3.57 lower at $300.90/cwt.

Grain futures continued to unwind Wednesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday led by tech stocks. Support also came on weaker employment data, boosting hopes for interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 330 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 59¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

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Next year is likely to begin with a smaller beef cow herd, whether or not producers begin retaining heifers for expansion, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The question of when heifer retention begins is important in two respects,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “First, heifer retention will further squeeze feeder supplies and push feeder cattle prices higher. That is likely to happen later this year. Secondly, the longer it takes to start heifer retention, the longer the industry will continue to see reduced cattle inventories, smaller beef production, and high average cattle and beef price levels.”

There is no clear indication of heifer retention occurring currently. Previously, initial indications could be seen in USDA’s mid-year Cattle report. However, they recently did away with the report.

Grazing conditions across much of the country support expansion, but Peel points out numerous factors contribute to producer decisions.

“Despite improved current forage conditions, the threat of rebuilding La Niña conditions later in the year is likely tempering some production plans,” Peel says. “Moreover, while higher calf prices provide incentives to increase calf production, it’s not clear that producers are yet reacting to long term profitability prospects (to retain heifers) as much as short-term revenue from selling more calves now.”

Cattle Current Daily—June 6, 2024 2024-06-05T19:32:54-05:00

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This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.