WLI

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, with week-to-week gains supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher. Week to week, they were an average of $4.60 higher; an average of $11.51 higher over the past two weeks.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ higher (2¢ to 75¢ higher), except for 2¢ lower in spot Dec. Week to week they were an average of $1.19 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Friday afternoon at $310.52/cwt. Select was unchanged at $274.30. Week to week, Choice was $3.11 higher and Select was up $2.23.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 28.7 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production was 110.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices ended the week and month on a positive note at the end of the holiday-shortened trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 51¢ lower to 72¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 15 points month to month in November to 50.2. That was the first time the RMI was above growth neutral since July 2023.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer.”

Among other RMI highlights…

• Farmland prices sank for the sixth time in the past seven months. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.7% over the next 12 months.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below-breakeven grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” according to Goss.

• The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016.

“This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.

• Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. However, the November confidence index increased to 46.4, its highest level since March 2022.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate with good demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions, which was $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $3-$4 higher in Kansas, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices last week were at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $311.26/cwt. Select was $1.19 lower at $274.30.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 88¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks. However, inflation news provided a bright spot. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% month to month in October, which was in line with expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 115 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ lower to 1¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Heifer slaughter data continues pointing to scant retention, if any, for herd expansion.

In fact, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the percentage of heifers comprising the mix of total cattle slaughter this year will likely be the highest since 2004.

“Heifer retention usually lags changes in cow culling,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Herd expansion results in decreased heifer slaughter rates similar to the 1991-1996 and the 2014-2017 periods.  Current heifer slaughter rates suggest that the beef cow herd has continued to decrease in 2024 and that prospects for herd expansion in 2025 are very limited.”

Although less year over year, Peel says cow slaughter continues at a non-expansion pace.

“Declining cull cow rates are often the leading indicator of producer herd rebuilding intentions,” Peel explains. “Beef cow slaughter is down 17.9% year over year in the first 45 weeks of 2024. This is projected to result in an annual culling rate of about 10%, roughly equal to the long-term average and down from the recent high over 13% in 2022. During herd expansion the cow culling rate typically drops below 9% for 3-4 years.”

Feeder Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, buoyed in part by the temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.74 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186-$187/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $186-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 higher Tuesday afternoon at $311.57/cwt. Select was $1.75 higher at $275.49.

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 119 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 20¢ to 25¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico to the U.S. — due to detection on New World Screwworm in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas — comes with plenty of market questions.

“Roughly 5% of feedlot placements this year have been imported feeder cattle from Mexico,” explain Extension livestock economists in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “The fall months are a seasonally high import period. If the ban on imports of feeder cattle lasts awhile, it would mean a lower supply of feeder cattle going into feedlots. Tight feeder cattle supplies would get tighter which would mean more support for prices.”

Unknowns, according to the economists, include if and where additional cases are identified, duration of the import restriction and whether the ban will continue to affect all imported cattle from Mexico or only those from specific regions.

Economists contributing to the Cattle Market Notes Weekly article are: Josh Maples, Mississippi State University; David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension; Charley Martinez, University of Tennessee.

On Tuesday, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA) provided its members with current insights following a call with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) and others.

Among the TCFA summary points:

• “USDA-APHIS’ goal is to reopen some of the cattle crossings in the next three weeks or so … The length of time it takes to reopen the crossings is largely dependent on how quickly Mexico moves.
• “Crossings where cattle are inspected on the Mexican side of the border will reopen first. For now, that means the crossings in New Mexico and Arizona.
• “USDA-APHIS is requiring that the Mexican government establish additional pre-export pens to verify the safety of Mexican cattle …”

Feeder Cattle futures gained on Monday, due in part to USDA’s temporary suspension of imports and transit of live cattle from Mexico after the positive detection of New World screwworm in that nation (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 higher, except for 45¢ lower in the back contract. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed: unchanged to an average of 27¢ lower through the front four contracts and then an average of 23¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $186-$187, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $186-$188. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB fed steer price last week was $1.60 higher at $186.39/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 72¢ higher at $291.56.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.30 higher Monday afternoon at $309.71/cwt. Select was $1.67 higher at $273.74.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 440 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.84 to $2.16 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA announced the temporary suspension of imports and transit of live cattle from Mexico to the United States after the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection checkpoint close to the border with Guatemala. NWS are fly larvae that infest living tissue of warm-blooded animals, causing infection. NWS was eradicated from the U.S. in 1966.

“Given the northward movement of NWS, APHIS has in recent months stepped up its efforts in Central America to partner with impacted countries to push this pest out of newly affected areas,” says Dr. Rosemary Sifford, Chief Veterinary Officer of the United States. “With this latest find in Mexico, we will further intensify this work to protect American agriculture and reestablish the barrier in Central America.”

NWS maggots can infest livestock and other warm-blooded animals, including people.

“They most often enter an animal through an open wound and feed on the animal’s living flesh,” according to APHIS. “While they can fly much farther under ideal conditions, adult flies generally do not travel more than a couple of miles if there are suitable host animals in the area…

“APHIS is working with partners in Mexico and Central America to stop the spread of NWS into the United States and asking all producers along the southern border to watch their livestock and pets for signs of NWS and immediately report potential cases.”

Visit APHIS for more details.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $186-$187, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $186-$188. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $290. The previous week dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $290-$300.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 62¢ higher Friday afternoon at $307.41/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $272.07. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.07 higher, but Select was $4.07 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 631,000 head was 25,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.2 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.3%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date beef production of 23.9 billion pounds was 27.8 million pounds fewer (-0.1%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, bolstered by the week’s firmer Choice wholesale beef value and steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.08 higher on Friday and were an average of $6.91 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ higher Friday. Week to week, they were an average of $3.06 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Friday.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Nov ‘25 and then mostly 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 426 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 85¢ to $1.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.3 million head in October which was 5.3% more year over year and about 2% more than expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 47% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 40% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.8 million head were 4.7% more year over year, which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.99 million head was 0.3% more than the same time last year, also in line with expectations ahead of the report.