WLI

Cattle futures were buoyed by Friday’s Cattle on Feed report early in Monday’s session but then faded with iffy outside markets and wonderments about this this week’s cash trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 65¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.70 lower, except for $1.32 higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mainly $248/cwt., which was mostly $2 higher in the Texas Panhandle, unevenly steady in Kansas, steady to $1 lower in Nebraska and steady in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388, which was steady in the western Corn Belt and steady to $1 lower in Nebraska.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 36¢ lower at $248.02/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 30¢ lower at $388.14.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.50 higher Monday afternoon at $383.56/cwt. Select was $7.01 at $383.61.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed to start the week.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower through near Nov. 

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Major U.S. financial indices wobbled and then closed slightly lower Monday, pressured by continued confusion about the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 64 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.31 to $3.95 higher through the front six contracts.

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Winter wheat condition continued to erode last week, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending April 19. 30% was in Good (25%) or Excellent (5%) condition, which was 4% less than the previous week and 15% less than the same week last year. On the other side of the scale, 33% was in Poor (21%) or Very Poor (12%) condition, compared to 32% the previous week and 21% the prior year.

As for row crops, 11% of corn was in the ground, which was on par with last year but 2% ahead of the five-year average. 12% of Soybean were planted, compared to 7% at the same time last year and 5% for the average.

Cattle futures closed lower for a third consecutive session on Friday, but off session lows. Part of the early pressure was likely tied to some worries about the Secretary of Agriculture announcing a timetable for the U.S. border reopening during scheduled remarks in Texas, but she made no mention. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report (see below) could add more optimism when next week begins.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.13 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.12 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.31 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mainly $248/cwt., which was mostly $2 higher in the Texas Panhandle, unevenly steady in Kansas, steady to $1 lower in Nebraska and steady in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388, which was steady in the western Corn Belt and steady to $1 lower in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 51¢ lower Friday afternoon at $381.06/cwt. Select was $1.88 lower at $376.60. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 16¢ higher and Select was $4.74 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 514,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 64,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 8.1 million head was 915,000 head fewer (-10.2%) the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 7.3 billion pounds was 601.7 million pounds less (-7.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures were pressured early Friday by sharply lower Crude Oil prices related to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. By the end of the session, though, futures were mixed.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ lower with likely profit taking. Corn futures were mostly fractionally mixed through Jly ’27. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher again Friday, supported by sharply lower Crude Oil prices and Iran declaring the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 868 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 84 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 365 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $4.29 to $10.84 lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to bullish with slightly fewer placements than expected and slightly more marketings.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in March. That was 7.3% less year over year and 0.8% less than average analyst estimates ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 34% went on feed weighing 600 pounds or less, 53% weighing 700-899 pounds, and 13% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in March of 1.6 million head were 95,000 head fewer than the same time last year, which was 5.5% less but 0.8% more than expectations. Marketings for the month were second fewest since the data series began in 1996.

Cattle on feed April 1 of 11.6 million head were 62,000 head fewer (-0.5%) than the previous year and slightly less than pre-report estimates.

Cattle futures extended losses Thursday with likely technical selling, profit taking and positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.21 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.71 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $248/cwt. Prices last week were mostly $246 in the Texas Panhandle and $246-$249 in Kansas on a light test.

Trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska with dressed delivered prices steady to $1 lower at $388. FOB live prices there last week were mostly $248-$249.

Trade in the western Corn Belt was light on moderate demand with steady FOB live prices at $248. Dressed delivered prices there last week were mostly $388.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 41¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $381.57/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $378.48.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 12¢ to 19¢ higher supported by worries about the winter wheat crop. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, buoyed by what investors deemed as progress in resolving the war with Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 86 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to $2.31 higher through the front six contracts.

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With continued underlying market fundamentals of tight cattle supplies and strong consumer beef demand, the downside risk emerges from the negative margins in the meatpacking and cattle feeding sectors, according to Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University.

“Packer margins – the revenue from beef and byproduct sales less the cost of finished cattle – spent all but four months of 2025 below $200 per head,” Koontz says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “These gross margins were negative in February 2026 – the amounts paid for fed cattle were greater than the amount for which beef and byproducts were sold. Margins did bounce back in March 2026, but to just short of $250 per head. These margins are what packing companies need to pay for labor, facilities, supplies, equipment, and management. Reasonable estimates of packer per head slaughter and fabrication costs are between $285 and $365 per head – on every head. Packer losses through 2025 and into 2026 will result in facility closings. This has occurred but will continue. And this is not good news for the cattle industry.”

As for cattle feeding, Koontz points out estimated cash returns were strong last year and heading into this year, but are offset significantly by hedging losses, which are not publicly available. For perspective he explains, using deferred Live Cattle contract prices to estimate revenue and nearby Feeder Cattle and Corn contract prices to estimate costs, hedging opportunities for cattle feeders the remainder of this year pencil out to $100 to $300 lost per head.

“This downstream margin trouble is long-term trouble – excellent cattle prices now with much asset and investment risk and volatility in the future,” Koontz says. “Or will there be some creative business models that are constructed to create better long-term opportunities with less boom and bust in the different segments of the beef supply chain?”

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday. Part of it likely stemmed from rumors, yet again, about the reopening of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Some profit taking ahead of Friday’s Monthly Cattle on Feed report could have also added pressure. Early estimates see March placements and marketings down 6-7% with the April 1 on-feed inventory slightly less year over year.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 lower, except for 12¢ higher in spot Apr. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.76 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $248/cwt. Prices there last week were mostly $246.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $246-$249 in Kansas, $248-$249 in Nebraska and mostly $248 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388-$390 in Nebraska and mainly $388 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.22 lower Wednesday afternoon at $381.98/cwt. Select was $1.22 lower at $378.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were firm to higher Wednesday.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Corn futures were 8¢ higher, supported by short covering and potential weather premium on the planting outlook.

Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, but with growing investor optimism about an end to the war between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 72 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 376 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 8¢ lower to 47¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left projected feeder steer prices unchanged for the remainder of this year in the April Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

For Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 pounds and selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards, the average price was forecast at $367/cwt. in the third quarter, $369 in the fourth quarter and at $367.22 for the annual average.

The weighted-average price for that class and weight of steers in Oklahoma City was $366.16 in March — nearly $83 more year over year — according to ERS analysts.

“That differential adds up to over $600 per animal that feedlots paid for the same type of feeder cattle, compared with last year,” ERS analysts say. “It is worth noting that weekly prices in March had a relatively wide range, from $349.99 to $373.62/cwt., demonstrating broader market volatility.”

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS also left projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices unchanged in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Prices were projected at $242/cwt. in the third quarter, $245 in the fourth quarter and at $242 for the annual average.

USDA projected beef production for this year at 25.8 billion pounds, which was 20 million pounds less than the previous month’s estimate. The total would be 211 million pounds less (-0.8%) than last year.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday, bolstered by more bullish outside markets and last week’s stronger cash trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.47 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.65 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $246/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $246-$249 in Kansas, $248-$249 in Nebraska and mostly $248 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388-$390 in Nebraska and mainly $388 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 higher Tuesday afternoon at $383.20/cwt. Select was $3.84 lower at $379.80.

Grain futures were broadly mixed Tuesday.  

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 21¢ higher, supported by continued erosion in crop condition. According to the USDA Crop Progress for the week ending April 12, 34% of winter wheat was in Good (29%) or Excellent (5%) condition, which was 1% less than a week earlier and 13% less than a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 32% was in Poor (20%) or Very Poor (12%) condition, compared to 19% a year earlier.

Corn and Soybean futures were pressured in part by lower Crude Oil prices.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ higher through near Dec. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower through near Nov.