WLI

Cattle futures on Thursday continued to retrace higher from the early-week meltdown, with odds increasing for steady to higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.58 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.45 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $232-$233/cwt. Prices there last week were mostly $230 with dressed delivered trade at $365.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand. Last week FOB live prices were $230-$231 in Kansas and mostly $230 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.93 lower Thursday afternoon at $360.50/cwt. Select was $1.08 lower at $341.33.

Soybean and Corn futures continued lower Thursday, on the more favorable weather outlook, while Wheat gained as traders added more war premium for export disruptions in the Black Sea. 

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Thursday from the previous session’s selloff, even though domestic second quarter economic growth was less than expected at 1.5%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 613 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 121 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 679 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 72¢ to $1.61 lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) plunged 10.5 points month to month in July to an overall reading of 42.1. That was the fifth time in six months that the index has been below growth neutral. The index ranges between zero and 100 with 50 representing growth neutral.

“More than half, or 52.0%, of bank CEOs reported that very weak commodity prices will be the greatest challenge to the agriculture economy moving forward,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.  

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July economic confidence index slumped to 34.2 from June’s 42.1. “Weak grain prices, higher input costs and volatility stemming from the Iran war continue to weigh on banker confidence,” according to Goss.

Cattle futures gained traction on Wednesday, as traders move past recent bearish news.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.71 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230-$231/cwt. in Kansas and mostly $230 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.43 lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.43. Select was $1.11 lower at $342.41.

Soybean futures led the grain complex lower Wednesday, pressured by a wetter forecast.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 28¢ to 35¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Corn futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday. Pressure included the bounce higher in Crude Oil futures prices and a spike up in Treasury yields, related to inflation concerns. The Federal Open Market Committee’s latest decision left interest rates unchanged.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,153 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 112 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 433 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $3.44 to $5.72 higher through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures were up and Feeder Cattle futures were mixed Tuesday, following the previous session’s steep decline, tied to USDA’s plans to open the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.29 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.55 lower, except for an average of $3.51 higher in the front three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230-$231/cwt. in Kansas and mostly $230 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.97 higher Tuesday afternoon at $365.86. Select was $1.64 lower at $343.52.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, likely bolstered by the steep decline in crop conditions illustrated in the weekly report.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 2¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, supported by lower Crude Oil prices and positive corporate earnings reports, while investors continued to sell chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 55 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.42 to $3.46 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were down hard on Monday, in reaction to USDA’s plans to open the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.26 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were mostly limit-down, an average of $10.38 lower across the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $7 lower in Kansas at $230-231/cwt. FOB live prices were mostly $230 in the North, which was mainly $10 lower in Nebraska and $10-$15 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365, which was mostly $15 lower in Nebraska and $5-$20 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $7.80 lower at $230.48/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $11.68 lower at $365.33.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.65 higher Monday afternoon at $362.89. Select was $1.55 lower at $345.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were down on sharply lower Crude Oil futures and a more favorable weather outlook.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 41¢ to 42¢ lower.  Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 17¢ lower.  Corn futures were 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with support including lower Crude Oil prices as tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, for the time being.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 262 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 43 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.48 to $7.31 lower through the front six contracts.

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Nationwide, pasture and range conditions held steady last week but were in significantly poorer shape year over year. Based on USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending July 26, 29% of the nation’s pasture and range was in Good (25%) or Excellent (4%) condition, which was the same as a week earlier but 16% less year over year. On the other side of the scale, 42% was in Poor (21%) or Very Poor (21%) condition, the same as the prior week but 16% more than the prior year.

States with 50% or more pasture and ranged classified as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (74%), Colorado (77%), Nebraska (66%), New Mexico (57%), South Dakota (63%), West Virginia (52%) and Wyoming (69%).

Corn condition eroded last week with 63% in Good (50%) or Excellent (13%) condition, compared to 67% the previous week and 73% at the same time last year. Conversely, 12% was in Poor (9%) or Very Poor (3%) condition, which was 3% more than the previous week and 5% more than a year earlier.

Similarly, 63% of soybeans were in Good (52%) or Excellent (11%) condition, which was 3% less than the previous week and 7% less than the prior year. At the other end of the rankings, 9% were in Poor (7%) and Very Poor (2%) condition, compared to 8% a week earlier and 6% a year earlier.

Cattle futures extended gains Friday, clawing back some of the previous weeks’ steep losses with hopes the near bottom has been established. As this week begins, traders will be considering the monthly Cattle on Feed and semi-annul Cattle inventory reports published after markets closed on Friday, as well as the announced phased reopening of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.97 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.12 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.70 higher, except for 62¢ lower in spot Aug.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was very limited on light to moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the North, which was $10 lower in Nebraska and $10-$15 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365, which was mostly $15 lower in Nebraska and $5-$20 lower in the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Kansas at $230-$231; prices there the previous week were mostly $237-$238.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 lower Friday afternoon at $361.24. Select was $2.04 lower at $346.71. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.57 lower and Select was $8.58 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 528,000 head, which was 3,000 more than the previous week but 26,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 15.4 million head was 1.4 million head fewer (-8.3%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 13.7 billion pounds was 837.1 million pounds less (-5.8%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed on Friday.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 10¢ higher through Jly ’27 and then mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed, supported by China purchases.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower through Dec ’27 and then mostly 7¢ lower on rumors about a deal to open export shipments through the Black Sea.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower, pressured by Wheat. However, they were an average of 17’5¢ higher through the front six contracts, week to week on Friday.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, pressured in part by chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 161 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 28¢ to $2.88 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA announced on Friday a coordinated, phased reopening of southern cattle ports to importation of Mexican feeder cattle. The ports have been closed because of New World screwworm (NWS). The reopening is contingent on Mexico’s adherence to the Joint Action Plan, according to USDA.

Beginning August 24, 2026, USDA will open the Douglas, Ariz. port of entry to cattle trade. The closest active NWS case to the port is approximately 325 miles away, detected on July 22, 2026. After evaluating the success of the initial reopening and potential impacts or risk assessment changes, APHIS will then consider reopening the Santa Teresa, N.M., and Columbus, N.M., ports to live cattle, bison, and horses.

“The closure of the Southern ports of entry for the last year has been a tough but necessary action to control the spread of NWS in Mexico and protect the American livestock industry,” says U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. “Thanks to the work across the federal government, as well as state, local, and industry partners, it is now safe to reopen the Douglas, Ariz., port in 30 days to resume the hundreds year old movement of cattle.”

For domestic NWS perspective, USDA reported the first confirmed case June 3. As of Friday, 42 cases had been reported in Texas and New Mexico, according to USDA’s NWS Confirmed Detections Dashboard.

“Secretary Rollins and her team at USDA have been fighting the spread of New World screwworm with an aggressive five-point plan and comprehensive response playbook. Their work – along with the diligence of cattle producers in border states – bought the United States valuable time to improve our domestic readiness. The whole-of-government response has put us in a strong position to begin safely and gradually reopening our southern border to cattle shipments,” says Colin Woodall, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO. “This decision will help normalize business for cattle operations throughout the border states and Southern Plains. We appreciate the continued work of USDA to support American producers and the U.S. cattle industry.”

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Cyclical cattle liquidation may be at or near the end, based on USDA’s semi-annual Cattle report published Friday, though some will likely question the numbers. Bottom- line analysis suggests herd stabilization with potential expansion in the distance. The numbers also reinforce the notion that expansion will be a long, slow process when it does begin.

All cattle and calves in the United States of 94.2 million head was 200,000 head more (0.2%) year over year.

Beef cows of 28.5 million head were 200,000 head fewer (-0.7%).

Milk cows numbered 9.7 million head, which was 200,000 head more (2.1%) year over year.

Beef replacement heifers of 3.8 million head were 100,000 head more (2.7%). At the same time, the percentage of heifers on feed July 1 (see below) continues to suggest herd expansion has yet to begin.

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Cattle markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to supportive with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.4 million head in June, which was 42,000 head fewer (-2.9%) year over year. That was about 1% less than pre-report estimates.

In terms of placement weights, 39% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 43% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in June of 1.7 million head were 46,000 head fewer (-2.7%) than a year earlier, which was in line with expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle on feed July 1 of 11.4. million head were 246,000 head more (2.2%) year over year. That was about dead on with pre-report estimates.

Heifers and heifer calves represented 37% of the cattle on feed.