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Cattle Current Daily—Feb. 11, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through late Friday afternoon, based on USDA reports, which cited a few trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $124-$125/cwt. on a live basis. The Agricultural Marketing Service reported dressed sales $2 higher in Nebraska at $200. Chatter increased that trade was headed higher by the end of the day.

Expectations of steady to higher cash and firm fundamentals helped lift Cattle futures Friday. Those fundamentals include winter-depressed cattle weights.

Dressed steers weights for the week ending Jan. 5 were 6 lbs. lighter year over year at 896 lbs., according to the Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report from USDA. Dressed heifer weights were 8 lbs. lighter at 892 lbs. A week earlier, year over year, dressed steer weights were 9 lbs. lighter and dressed heifer weights were 13 lbs. lighter.

As well, the slug of USDA reports released Friday—offering the year’s first grain supply and usage estimates—proved to be market neutral.

Live Cattle futures closed 61¢ higher (10¢ to $1.10 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 74¢ higher (50¢ to $1.02 higher).  

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ higher. 

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.36 lower Friday afternoon at $215.35/cwt. Select was 36¢ lower at $211.17. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, recovering from strong pressure early in the session, tied to lingering worries about the lack of resolution to trade issues between the U.S. and China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 9 points.

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“Beef production (2018) is reduced on lower cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights through late December,” say ERS analysts, in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). “The 2019 beef production forecast is reduced on lower projected slaughter as smaller anticipated placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are expected to result in lower fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of the year.”

The annual average fed steer price (5-area Direct) for last year was estimated at $117.12/cwt., which was 21¢ higher than the December projection.

Fed steer prices for this year are estimated at $122-$126 in the first quarter, $119-$127 in the second, $109-$119 in the third and at $108-$118 in the fourth.

Total beef production for last year was revised down 75 million lbs. from the December estimate to 26.86 billion lbs. Likewise, estimated beef production for this year was revised down by 175 million lbs. to 27.61 billion lbs.

“Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 was lowered from December as beef and broiler production more than offsets slightly higher pork production,” say ERS analysts. “For 2019, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from December on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production.”

Cattle Current Daily—Feb. 11, 2019 2019-02-09T12:52:57+00:00

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 8, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Thursday afternoon. 

Cattle futures mostly tread water, pressured early by sharply lower Lean Hog futures, but recovering as trade picked up.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed (17¢ lower to 11¢ higher). 

Except for unchanged in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ higher. 

Corn and soybean futures came under pressure Thursday, perhaps in part to negative rhetoric regarding a trade resolution with China, as well as defensive positioning ahead of USDA reports Friday that will provide the first glimpse at grain stocks and usage estimates in more than a month.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 8¢ lower. 

Wholesale beef values were lower on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 86¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $216.71/cwt. Select was 84¢ lower at $211.53. 

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 8, 2019 2019-02-07T19:27:33+00:00

Cattle Current Daily-Feb. 8, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Thursday afternoon. 

Cattle futures mostly tread water, pressured early by sharply lower Lean Hog futures, but recovering as trade picked up.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed (17¢ lower to 11¢ higher). 

Except for unchanged in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ higher. 

Corn and soybean futures came under pressure Thursday, perhaps in part to negative rhetoric regarding a trade resolution with China, as well as defensive positioning ahead of USDA reports Friday that will provide the first glimpse at grain stocks and usage estimates in more than a month.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 8¢ lower. 

Wholesale beef values were lower on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 86¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $216.71/cwt. Select was 84¢ lower at $211.53. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured mostly by renewed concerns about global economic growth. Worries were spurred by reports that the U.S. and China are still wide apart in trade negotiations. Pressure also came from the European Commission (EU) lowering its projections for economic growth to 1.5% for this year.

“Our forecast is revised downwards, in particular for the largest euro area economies,” says Valdis Dombrovskis, in charge of Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union. “This reflects external factors, such as trade tensions and the slowdown in emerging markets, notably in China. Concerns about the sovereign-bank loop and debt sustainability are resurfacing in some euro area countries. The possibility of a disruptive Brexit creates additional uncertainty…”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 220 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 25 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 86 points.

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U.S. beef exports continued on a record pace in November according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Note that these are the latest statistics, about a month late, due to the government shutdown.

Beef exports totaled 112,842 metric tons (mt) in November, up 1% from a year earlier, while value climbed 6% to $709.2 million. For January through November of last year, exports reached 1.24 million mt, up 8% year-over-year and 6% above the record pace of 2011. At $7.63 billion, beef export value was up 16% and broke the full-year record set in 2017 ($7.27 billion).

Beef export value per head of fed slaughter is also on a record pace, averaging $322.97 in November, which was 5% more than a year earlier. Value per head of fed slaughter through the first 11 months of 2018 was $320.72, which was 14% more than the same period a year earlier.

Cattle Current Daily-Feb. 8, 2019 2019-02-07T19:25:49+00:00

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 7, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon, but early sings pointed to at least steady trade.

For instance, although too few to trend, there was some live trade in Nebraska at $124/cwt., steady with last week. 

Likewise, two lots of steers from Kansas brought a weighted average price of $124.11 in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. That was steady with the region’s country price a week earlier. There were only 294 head offered, but 161 head sold. Another lot was passed out at $124.

Cattle futures edged lower Wednesday with the lack of cash direction and light trade, especially light in Feeder Cattle.

Other than unchanged to an average of 3¢ higher in the back three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ lower.  

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher. 

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and weak on Select with light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 55¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $217.57/cwt. Select was 73¢ lower at $212.37. 

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 7, 2019 2019-02-06T19:24:26+00:00

Cattle Current Daily-Feb. 7, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon, but early sings pointed to at least steady trade.

For instance, although too few to trend, there was some live trade in Nebraska at $124/cwt., steady with last week. 

Likewise, two lots of steers from Kansas brought a weighted average price of $124.11 in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. That was steady with the region’s country price a week earlier. There were only 294 head offered, but 161 head sold. Another lot was passed out at $124.

Cattle futures edged lower Wednesday with the lack of cash direction and light trade, especially light in Feeder Cattle.

Other than unchanged to an average of 3¢ higher in the back three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ lower.  

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher. 

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and weak on Select with light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 55¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $217.57/cwt. Select was 73¢ lower at $212.37. 

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Major U.S. financial indices leaked lower Wednesday, pressured by mixed quarterly earnings results and little betting direction from the State of the Union address. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 21 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 26 points.

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“Plant-based proteins are no longer just a meat replacement, it’s now its own category,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America. “It’s possible that protein overall is evolving into a category, whether animal meat, beans, nuts, soy, wild game or other proteins, in forms ranging from beverage to center-of-plate.”  

Case shipments of plant-based protein from broadline foodservice distributors to foodservice operators increased 20% year to year in November, according to The NPD Group.

Burgers represent the largest plant-based foodservice category and have year-over-year double-digit growth in pounds shipped to foodservice operators, and plant-based burgers are showing up the most on many restaurant menus.  Although plant-based burgers are popular across demographics, an analysis done with NPD’s receipt mining service, Checkout, shows that smaller, more affluent ($100,000 and up) households are the top buyers of plant-based burgers.   

About a quarter of the U.S. population, many of whom aren’t vegan or vegetarian, say that they eat and drink plant-based beverages and foods as well as animal protein on a regular basis, according to NPD.

Cattle Current Daily-Feb. 7, 2019 2019-02-06T19:19:37+00:00

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 6, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon.

Live Cattle futures edged higher with the firm fundamental outlook—at least static demand levels and weather-dampened beef production—for the near term. Feeder Cattle softened, likely due most to positioning after the previous session’s strong gain.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 30¢ higher (5¢ higher to 97¢ higher in spot Feb).

Other than an average of 12¢ higher in Sep and Oct, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ lower. 

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. 

Wholesale beef values were weak on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $217.02/cwt. Select was 31¢ lower at $213.10. 

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 6, 2019 2019-02-05T19:15:51+00:00

Cattle Current Daily-Feb. 6, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon.

Live Cattle futures edged higher with the firm fundamental outlook—at least static demand levels and weather-dampened beef production—for the near term. Feeder Cattle softened, likely due most to positioning after the previous session’s strong gain.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 30¢ higher (5¢ higher to 97¢ higher in spot Feb).

Other than an average of 12¢ higher in Sep and Oct, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ lower. 

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. 

Wholesale beef values were weak on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $217.02/cwt. Select was 31¢ lower at $213.10. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday, buoyed by positive quarterly earnings reports. Also, there may have been some betting on the President’s State of The Union address scheduled for Tuesday night.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 172 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 54 points.

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Agricultural producers were more optimistic about the agricultural economy in January, but they remain concerned about farmland values, according to results from the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer

The barometer rebounded 16 points from December, to 143 in January. It’s based on 400 survey responses from agricultural producers across the country.

“This survey provided us with the first opportunity to measure farmers’ sentiment following the announcement of USDA’s second round of Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments and the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “It appears that these two announcements provided a significant boost to producer sentiment regarding both current and future economic conditions.”

In January, both of the barometer’s two sub-indices increased month to month. The Index of Current Conditions rose 3 points to 132. The Index of Future Expectations increased 13 points to 148. Pessimism about farmland values increased, though. According to the January survey, the percentage expecting higher farmland values over the next 12 months declined 4 points to 13%. Those expecting higher values in the next five years declined 2 points to 48%.

Cattle Current Daily-Feb. 6, 2019 2019-02-05T19:13:11+00:00

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 5, 2019

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, led by Feeder Cattle and supported by higher cash prices and resurgent wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher ($1.12 to $1.82 higher).

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were sharply higher on Choice and firm on Select, with moderate to fairly good demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.39 higher Monday afternoon at $217.65/cwt. Select was 26¢ higher at $213.41.

Cattle Current Podcast-Feb. 5, 2019 2019-02-04T18:44:47+00:00

Cattle Current daily-Feb. 5, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended up last week at steady money to a little higher with moderate trade and demand on Friday. Live prices were $1 higher at $124/cwt., except for steady in the western Corn Belt at $123-$126. Dressed sales were steady to $3 higher at $197-$200.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, led by Feeder Cattle and supported by higher cash prices and resurgent wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher ($1.12 to $1.82 higher).

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were sharply higher on Choice and firm on Select, with moderate to fairly good demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.39 higher Monday afternoon at $217.65/cwt. Select was 26¢ higher at $213.41.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by tech stocks and positive quarterly earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 175 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 87 points.

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“Total commercial beef production for 2018 is projected at 26.9 billion lbs., up 2.6% from one year ago and just fractionally smaller than the record U.S. beef production of 27.1 billion lbs. in 2002,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Beef production in 2019 is forecast at a record 27.4 billion lbs, up 1.8% year over year. Total beef production is likely to grow through 2020 at least.”

Along the way, Peel says total cattle slaughter last year was 2.5% more, with steer slaughter 0.7% less than in 2017 and heifer slaughter 6.5% more. Total cow slaughter was 6.5% more year over year, including 8.6% more beef cows.

Cattle Current daily-Feb. 5, 2019 2019-02-04T18:43:08+00:00

Cattle Current Weekly Highlights-Week ending Feb. 1, 2019

Although winter weather continued to limit auction receipts, calf and feeder cattle prices finally bounced higher last week. Nationwide, steers and heifers sold $1-$4/cwt. higher with instances of $6 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“The big story was the Polar Vortex that encompassed 70% of the United States population with freezing and below freezing temperatures,” say AMS analysts.  “Mid-week travel was brutal on both man and beast; some auctions either rescheduled due to the cold or cancelled.”

Not counting recently minted away Jan, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ lower (22¢ to $1.10 lower in spot Mar).

“The increase in auction prices this week had little to do with stronger feeder cattle futures as futures continue to trade sideways as they have done for three months,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The most likely factor that supported prices was stocker producers attempting to get a few spring grass cattle purchased prior to the seasonal price increase.”

At their annual Outlook Seminar last week, CattleFax analysts said they expect steer calf prices (550 lbs.) to average about $164/cwt. this year, about $9 less than last year. They anticipate prices could increase to the mid $180s in the spring, and could erode to $140 in the fall.

CattleFax projects feeder steer (750 lbs.) prices this year at an average $147/cwt., down about $3 from last year. They expect a trading range of $130-$160.

Fed Cattle Prices Appeared Steady to Higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended up last week at steady money to a little higher with moderate trade and demand on Friday. Live prices were $1 higher at $124/cwt., except for steady in the western Corn Belt at $123-$126. Dressed sales were steady to $3 higher at $197-$200.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ lower.

“Cattle feeders have their eyes set on year-ago prices, which nearly reached $130, based on the 5-area weighted average price during the third week of February and stayed near $126 or higher through the end of March,” Griffith says. “The key this year will be for cattle feeders to maintain prices in the mid $120 area or higher for April and into May. The little bit of leverage they have now will help.”

CattleFax projects the average fed steer price this year at $117/cwt., with downside risk to $100 and upside resistance at around $130.

Incidentally, CattleFax analysts say feed and grain prices are expected to remain stable this year, with corn acreage increasing an expected 2 million acres to total 91 million acres and soybeans declining 2.2 million acres to 87 million acres.

“Corn is expected to trade in a range of $3.60 to $4.10/bu. during the first half of the year,” according to CattleFax analyst Mike Murphy. He added that hay acreage isn’t expected to change significantly from last year, but increased winter precipitation across much of the United States should help provide a strong start to the 2019 hay crop.

Wholesale beef prices were mixed. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.75 lower at $214.26/cwt. Select was $1.12 higher at $213.15.

“The comprehensive cutout is 3% ahead of a year ago in the month of January, averaging $213.21/cwt.,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The end of the holiday season should have brought about seasonally higher chuck and round primal values, but in the first four weeks of the year, chuck, round, and flank primal values have been the only cuts lagging.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

Receipts*

Feb. 1

Auction (head)

(Change)

Direct (head)

(Change)

Video/net (head)

(Change)

Total (head)

(Change)

 

210,700

(+23,900)

53,900

(+18,400)

3,500

(-28,600)

268,100

(+13,700)

 

CME Feeder Index

CME Feeder Index* Jan. 31 Change
  $141.86  –  $1.35

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

 

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

Steers-Cash Feb. 1  Change 
600-700 lbs. $161.28 +   3.58
700-800 lbs. $149.28 +   2.31
800-900 lbs. $142.30 +   0.88

 

South Central

Steers-Cash Feb. 1 Change
500-600 lbs. $163.73 +   1.94
600-700 lbs. $148.51 +   1.93
700-800 lbs. $141.18 +   0.36

 

Southeast

Steers-Cash Feb. 1 Change 
400-500 lbs. $159.54 +   6.66
500-600 lbs. $149.52 +   4.18
600-700 lbs. $138.41 +   2.81

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

 

Wholesale Beef Value

Boxed Beef  (p.m.) Feb. 1 ($/cwt) Change
Choice $214.26 –   $2.75
Select $213.25 +  $1.12  
Ch-Se Spread $1.11 –   $3.87

 

Futures

Feeder Cattle  Feb. 1 Change
Mar $142.525 –    $1.100
Apr $144.000 –    $0.725
May $144.600 –    $0.475
Aug $148.700 –    $0.675
Sep $149.100 –    $0.725
Oct $149.175 –    $0.425
Nov $149.000 –    $0.225
Mar $146.975       n/a

 

Live Cattle   Feb. 1 Change
Feb ’19 $125.450 –   $0.600
Apr $126.275 –   $0.575
Jun $116.150 –   $0.550
Aug $113.000 –   $0.500
Oct $114.675 –   $0.400
Dec $116.875 –   $0.400
Feb ’20 $118.275 –   $0.375
Apr $118.250 –   $0.450
Jun $111.400 –   $0.400

 

Corn futures Feb. 1 Change
Mar ’19 $3.782 –  $0.020
May $3.870 –  $0.016
Jul $3.946 –  $0.018
Sep $3.974 –  $0.016
Dec $4.022 –  $0.010
Mar ’20 $4.112 –  $0.008

 

Oil CME-WTI Feb. 1 Change
Mar $55.26 +  $1.57
Apr $55.55 +  $1.57
May $55.88 +  $1.57
Jun $56.21 +  $1.55
Jul $56.50 +  $1.54
Aug $56.71 +  $1.55

 

Equities

Equity Indexes Feb. 1 Change
Dow Industrial Average  25063.89 +  326.69
NASDAQ     7263.87 +    99.01
S&P 500     2706.53 +    41.77
Dollar (DXY)          95.57 –       1.01

Cattle Current Weekly Highlights-Week ending Feb. 1, 2019 2019-02-04T18:46:19+00:00

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This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

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This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.