WLI

Cattle futures sought stability Monday after the previous session’s free fall.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 53¢ lower, except for $1.97 higher at the back of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 98¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $225/cwt. in the South Central region with no previous-week comparison. Prices were $4 to $4.50 lower in Nebraska at mostly $224 and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $224. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $352 and steady to $17 lower in the western Corn Belt at $348-$365.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $3.35 lower at $223.73/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $8.60 lower at $352.19.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 38¢ higher Monday afternoon at $365.04/cwt. Select was $2.96 higher at $354.94.

Grain futures firmed Monday, while Soybean futures slid lower with wonderment about higher yields and positive South American weather.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.  

Soybean futures were 17¢ to 18¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, boosted by a sharply decline in Crude Oil futures, tied to renewed hopes of U.S.-Iran peace talks, but weighed down by tech stocks once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 213 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 272 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were $5.38 to $7.38 lower through the front six contracts.

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The January and July 2026 Cattle reports showed a slight increase in beef replacement heifers, but not enough to suggest herd growth, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

“In fact, four years of decreased cow culling means that more old cows in the herd will have to be replaced relatively soon,” Peel says. “It appears that a minimum of 200,000 head of beef replacement heifers is likely to be needed in the next year just to maintain the current herd. The January data showed an increase of 41,700 head and the July report showed a 100,000 head increase in beef replacement heifers, neither is enough to indicate herd rebuilding.”

Peel adds that fed heifer slaughter was down 11% year over year through the first three quarters, and down sharply the last couple of months, which could be stronger indication of heifer retention.

“Both beef and dairy heifers are included in heifer slaughter data,” Peel explains. “The decrease in heifer slaughter could reflect heifer retention in either or both sectors. The July inventory data showed an increase in both beef and dairy replacement heifers.  There are indications that both sectors are trying to retain replacement heifers, and both could be contributing to decreased heifer slaughter. Additionally, heifer slaughter is down, in part, simply because there are less cattle being slaughtered and less cattle to slaughter…”

With that in mind, Peel points out beef cow culling dropped from a record high of 13.19% in 2022 to a projected record low of 7.35% this year.  

“Decreased cow culling is mostly about slowing herd liquidation and stabilizing cow inventory at the cyclical low,” Peel says. “From that point, increased heifer retention provides the means to expand beef cow inventories.  The first part of that process is in place. 

“… All in all, there are indications of a modest increase in heifer retention in 2026, perhaps accelerating late in the year.  Nevertheless, prospects for herd growth going into 2027 remain limited with growth beyond 2027 yet to be confirmed.”

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday, weighed down by a host of factors, including bearish outside market, week-end and month-end positioning, uncertainty over next week’s mid-term elections, weaker negotiated cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values, etc.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.95 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $10.01 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $8.03 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $14.32 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on light to moderate demand in the South Central region through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices for the week were $225/cwt. with no previous-week comparison.

Trade in the North ranged from light on light demand in Nebraska to limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt.

Based on the last established trade, FOB live prices were $4-$4.50 lower in Nebraska at $224 and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $222-$224.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 lower in Nebraska at mostly $348 and $5-$15 lower in the western Corn Belt at $350-$360.

Keep in mind, USDA began adding aggregated data to the 5-area direct report, beginning last Monday.

“It now includes all five regions (eight states) once again,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Some regions could not be reported due to confidentiality guidelines but that has been resolved by reporting Colorado, Kansas, and Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico together. This allows for a more robust representation of negotiated cattle trade in the major feeding regions. Thus, data from more finished cattle transactions will be recorded to improve transparency as cattle feeders and packers negotiate trade each week. This should result in a larger head count since Colorado has not been reported since the last week of 2022.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.62 lower Friday afternoon at $364.66/cwt. Select was 35¢ higher at $351.98. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.13 lower and  Select was 71¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 543,000 head was 3,000 head fewer than the previous week and 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 22.7 million head was 1.7 million head less (-7.1%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 20.3 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-4.9%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower through Sep ‘27 and then mostly 7¢ to 12¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, as investors fled tech stocks like chips and AI, and oil prices continued higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 572 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 140 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 737 points.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were $1.19 to $2.12 higher through the front six contracts.

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National hay supplies are snugger year over year, based on USDA’s October Crop Production report. Estimated alfalfa and alfalfa mix production of 50.56 million tons was 349,000 tons more (0.7%) but all other hay production of 69.96 million tons was 2.85 million tons less (-4%). Combined, projected all hay production for this year was 120.53 million tons, which was 2.5 million tons less (-2%).

“This reflects sustained drought impacts on regions, especially in the west, along with other macroeconomic factors,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) in the Oct. 23 Livestock Monitor. “USDA’s Agricultural Prices report showed the national average price for all hay reached $190 per ton in August 2026, up $29 per ton (+18%) from August 2025.”

With winter feed needs in mind, LMIC analysts also note the steep slide in Corn futures prices with significant production increases projected by USDA. They point out Dec Corn futures prices peaked at $5.46 per bushel in early September. The same contract closed at $4.48, Oct. 30, down 98¢ (-17.9%).

“Harvest will continue to be a major factor to watch as analysts get a better idea of total production,” LMIC analysts say. As of the Oct. 25, 60% of corn harvest was complete, which was 6% behind the five-year average, according to USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report.

Cattle futures were mixed to lower on Thursday with profit taking, the week’s lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices, weaker wholesale beef values and likely month-end position squaring.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 50¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in away-Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 46¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 44¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on last established trade, FOB live prices are $2.50 to $5 lower than last week in Nebraska at $223-$226/cwt. and mostly $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $222-$224.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $10 lower at mostly $348 and $5-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $350-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 lower Thursday afternoon at $367.28/cwt. Select was $3.62 lower at $351.63.

Grain and Soybean futures were mostly lower on Thursday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to fractionally lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher with support from chatter about Chinese demand.

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by corporate earnings reports and sticky inflation, although quarterly domestic economic growth was stronger than expected.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.2%.

As for inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index in September was 3.6% higher year over year, which was higher than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 132 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 365 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were 58¢ to $1.10 lower through the front six contracts.

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Estimated feedlot returns, on a cash-to-cash basis, are negative through April of next year, according to the most recent Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns.

Projected net returns for steers range from -$318.90 per head this month to -$60.19 in April. Estimated feedlot cost of gain ranges from $98.24/cwt. this month to a high of $108.09 in March.

Similarly, projected net returns for heifers range from -$241.41 per head this month to as low as -$61.28 in March. Estimated feedlot cost of gain ranges from $103.49/cwt. this month to a high of $114.92 in March.

Again, these projections reflect a cash market situation without implementing price risk management strategies. Also of note, the prior-year relationship between Nebraska and Kansas was used to approximate Kansas negotiated volume, weights and prices for weeks when negotiated transactions were not reported in Kansas due to Livestock Mandatory Reporting confidentiality rules.

Cattle futures closed lower on Tuesday with profit taking and lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.38 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.52 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light to moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Early dressed sales in Nebraska were $6-$8 lower at $350-$352/cwt. FOB live sales there last week were $228-$228.50.

In the western Corn Belt, early FOB live trades were mainly $3 lower at most $224 and dressed delivered trades were mostly $5 lower at mainly $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.22 lower Wednesday afternoon at $369.00/cwt. Select was $3.60 lower at $355.25.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher with likely short covering.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower on less war premium on Black Sea exports.

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower with harvest pressure and strong yield results.

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Major U.S. financial indices were higher Wednesday with support from the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at the current level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 72 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were $2.24 to $2.91 higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months, according to the latest survey providing data for Creighton University’s Rural Main Street Index (RMI).

“Soaring diesel fuel costs, continuing supply chain disruptions, and higher fertilizer costs continued to weigh on banker economic confidence,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The overall RMI declined 2.2 points month to month in October to 42.5, the lowest reading since July of this year and below growth neutral for the fifth time in six months. Readings range between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Supply chain disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have produced record high prices for diesel fuel and fertilizer, pushing the overall index lower,” Goss says. “Almost half of bank CEOs expressed backing for federal farm support programs, such as the recent $8 billion program announced by President Trump.”

The RMI is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Tuesday with some potential profit taking and oversold conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 48¢ lower, except for 12¢ higher in spot Oct.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher (7¢ to $2.70 higher), except for an average of 74¢ lower in the back to contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were generally $1-$3 higher in Nebraska at 228-$228.50/cwt. and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $227. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at mostly $358 and mostly $15 higher the western Corn Belt at mainly $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.78 higher Tuesday afternoon at $372.22/cwt. Select was $1.29 higher at $358.85.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Tuesday, with hangover pressure from declining Brazilian currency value and domestic harvest progress.

Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were higher Tuesday, supported once again by lower oil prices and tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 45 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 308 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were 21¢ to $1.80 lower through the front six contracts.