WLI

Cattle futures softened further Wednesday, pressured by bearish outside markets, and likely profit taking as traders await the week’s negotiated cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.79 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.10 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $223-$224/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $222-$223 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $375.81/cwt. Select was $1.79 lower at $354.57.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday with some likely pressure from producer selling.

Through late afternoon and the front four contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Wednesday, pressured by inflation worries and the Fed raising interest rates.  

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved unanimously a 0.25% increase in the federal lending rate in the face of inflation.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” according to the FOMC statement. “While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 631 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 3 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.20 to $3.81 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower Tuesday with likely profit taking from the recent gains.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.70 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.43 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was inactive on light demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $6 higher in Nebraska at mostly $223-$224/cwt. and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $222-$223. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 higher at mainly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 77¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $376.08/cwt. Select was $1.81 higher at $356.36.

Grain and Soybean futures gained on Tuesday.

Through late afternoon and the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 14¢ to 15¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices were lower again Tuesday as oil prices and Treasury yields continued to rise. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 328 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 34 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 204 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.50 to $4.29 higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite recent pressure on calf and feeder cattle prices, the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) projects cow-calf returns at or near historical highs.

“In 2025, LMIC estimated cow-calf returns to be about $950 per cow which was a substantial increase of $467 per cow previous returns.

 “… Early in the summer, LMIC was estimating cow-calf returns to be around $1,150 per cow for 2026), but recent steer calf price pressure has limited prospective cow-calf return estimates to be just below $1,000 per cow, say LMIC analysts in the recent Livestock Monitor. They add that There is still potential for steer calf prices to rebound through the end of the year and that could bolster cow-calf returns.”

The LMIC estimates returns for the next two years at $900 to $1,000 per cow, contingent steer calf prices remaining strong, total costs remaining steady and strong consumer beef demand.

On the other side of the equation, LMIC analysts say, “Total costs have been above $1,000 per cow for the last three years and will likely remain above that level this year.”

Finally, they explain, “Efforts to rebuild the herd will be a measured approach and take time, which are likely to keep supplies tight for the next 2-3 years.”

Cattle futures ended Friday and the week higher, supported by the step higher in negotiated cash fed cattle prices and lower grain futures.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.33 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.56 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.35 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $12.13 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was moderate on good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$6 higher in Nebraska at mostly $224/cwt. and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $222-$223. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 higher at mainly $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.43 lower Friday afternoon at $375.94/cwt. Select was $1.07 higher at $353.13. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 23¢ lower and Select was $2.74 lower.

Keeping Labor Day in mind, total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 505,000 head was 21,000 head fewer than the previous week and 68,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 19 million head was 1.6 million head fewer (-7.6%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 16.9 billion pounds was 923.8 million pounds less (-5.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on likely profit taking and no major surprises in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Soybean futures closed 28¢ to 35¢ lower through Aug ’27 and then 21¢ to 29¢ lower. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 13¢ to 19¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Friday after declining at the end of every other session during the week. Lower oil prices for the day helped provide support. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 509 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 65 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 251 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.56 to $2.50 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) sliced expected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices for the second half of this year and the first half of 2027 in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Price forecasts declined on lower-than-expected packer demand.

Compared to the previous month, projected prices declined $12 in the third quarter to $230/cwt. and $10 in the fourth quarter to $225. This year’s forecast annual average price declined $8 to $237.75.

Next year’s projected annual average price was $11 lower at $238 with the first-quarter prices $10 lower at $235 and the second-quarter price $15 lower at $235.

That was with this year’s estimated beef production at 24.9 billion pounds, which would be 1.1 billion pounds less than last year (-4.3%).

“Beef production is reduced on a slower pace of fed cattle marketings in the third quarter, lighter dressed weights in the third quarter, and lower cow slaughter in the fourth quarter,” according to ERS analysts.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook was for smaller supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports and reduced ending stocks. Corn production was forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million from last month on a 2.2-bushel reduction in yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and a fractional decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million.

With declining supply only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks were lowered 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 30¢ per bushel to $4.80.

Soybeans

The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. soybeans included higher production and exports, and lower ending stocks. Soybean production was projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million with higher harvested area and yield. Harvested area increased 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. Ending stocks were projected at 310 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast 60¢ higher at $12.00 per bushel. The soybean meal price increased $30 to $340 per short ton. The soybean oil price was unchanged at 70¢ per pound.

Wheat

Aggregate supply and use categories for 2026/27 U.S. wheat were unchanged.

The season-average farm price (SAFP) increased 20¢ per bushel to $6.40 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year. Additionally, the higher price is supported by increased U.S. corn prices.

Cattle futures strengthened on Thursday, supported by stronger cash feeder cattle prices and thoughts that negotiated cash fed cattle prices could follow suit.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 84¢ higher, except for unchanged in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.74 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $218-$223/cwt. in Nebraska and $218-$220/cwt. in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $345.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 lower Thursday afternoon at $378.37/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $352.06.

Grain and Soybean futures pushed higher on Thursday, led by Soybeans and likely supported by some inflationary hedging, as traders prepared for Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Through late afternoon, Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ higher, buoyed by new Chinese purchases. Corn futures were 5¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 12¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to lose more ground Thursday, pressured by surging oil prices and inflation worries.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 316 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 171 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.35 to $6.89 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mainly held or extended gains on Wednesday, in the face of another day of bearishness in outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ lower, except for an average of 12¢ higher in two contracts. They were an average of $3.46 higher Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.15 higher, except for an average of $1.00 lower in the back contract. They were an average of $4.85 higher on Wednesday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was mostly inactive on light demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $218-$223/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $218-$220. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $345.

Last week’s five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was 9¢ lower at $219.06. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 33¢ lower at $345.42.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.20 higher Wednesday afternoon at $380.77/cwt. Select was $3.05 lower at $352.34.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Wednesday with positioning ahead of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices slid lower for another day as crude oil prices and Treasury yields rose.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 405 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 168 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.16 to $1.31 higher through the front six contracts.

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Tyson Foods announced in August the closure of its beef packing facility in Joselin, Il., its case-ready facility in Eagle Mountain, Utah and intentions to sell its beef packing facility in Pasco, Wash. You likely recall the company closed its plant at Lexington, Neb. early this year and reduced production at its plant in Amarillo, Texas.

Last week, Tyson Foods provided some perspective in its updated fiscal 2026 outlook, reflecting additional pressure in its beef segment during the fourth quarter, according to the company. The update explains the revised outlook was primarily driven by significant margin compression amid volatile cattle prices and one of the most severe cattle shortages in U.S. history, as well as the expected impact of lower cattle prices on the value of live cattle inventories.

“The Beef pressures that have intensified this quarter reflect industry-wide cattle-cycle dynamics that required decisive action,” said Donnie King, President and Chief Executive Officer of Tyson Foods. “As announced in August, we are restructuring our beef network around three strategically located facilities in the central United States to create a more efficient and competitive footprint for the long term.”