Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for an average of 66¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $299.80/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $268.78.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Sept. 26 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday, likely pressured by producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday as crude oil prices continued to climb on worries about disruptions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.93 to $3.57 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with expanding open interest from fund buying.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.00 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $299.81/cwt. Select was $1.37 lower at $283.93.

Grain futures closed higher Wednesday, led by wheat with weather and war premium.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 17¢ to 19¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed slightly higher Wednesday as investors digested the Middle East conflict and the U.S. port strike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.18 through the front six contracts. 

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Feed grain remains 18-24% lower than last year, allowing feedlots to continue holding cattle longer to increase fed weights, according to Hannah Baker, Extension beef cattle and forage economist at the University of Florida.

“Average steer dressed weights reached 925 pounds as of September 1, almost 3% heavier than year-ago levels and 4% higher than the historical average,” Baker explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The percentage of cattle grading Choice has also increased by 3.5% since last year and by 2% compared to the 2018-2022 average.”

Further, Baker notes that while current price trends are similar to those in 2015 during the same period, herd expansion had already begun.

“There was no incentive for prices to climb back up after the typical dip in the fall,” Baker explains. “In the current market, we have not seeing signs of stabilization, much less expansion, and have already hit record prices that we saw back in 2015. This indicates that while we are experiencing some seasonality this year, it is not expected that we are headed for a continuous low level of cattle prices.”

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $300.17/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $285.30.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher, except for unchanged in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower, except for unchanged at either end of the board, pressured by another day of higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 278 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.06 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict. 

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Declining income expectations pushed the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest readings since March 2016. Farmer sentiment fell 12 points month to month to 88. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76.

“The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “It’s notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the U.S. farm economy was in the early stages of an economic downturn. In addition to commodity prices and input costs weighing heavily on their operations, producers are also facing considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead for their farms with the possible government policy changes following the upcoming 2024 elections.”

When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with 34% of farmers citing input prices and 33% pointing to lower output prices as their primary concerns. Interest rates trailed behind as a top concern for 17% of respondents. Producers’ apprehensions about commodity prices matched up with their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports; only 26% of respondents expect exports to rise over the next five years, the most pessimistic response to this question since it was first introduced in 2019. Additionally, 78% of producers expressed concern that government policy changes following the fall 2024 elections could impact their farms.

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.14 higher week to week at $186.15/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was $3.12 higher at $293.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Monday afternoon at $298.08/cwt. Select was $2.45 higher at $284.53.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed were an average of 38¢ higher with follow-through support from last week’s higher cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower except for 17¢ higher at the back with pressure from higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher, buoyed by the neutral to friendly Grain Stocks report and likely quarter-end short covering. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ lower on an improved South American weather outlook.  

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 69 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef cow numbers when 2025 begins will likely be less year over year with limited potential to expand until the following year, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

Although year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 16.3% less so far this year, Peel explains in his weekly market comments, “The rate of beef cow slaughter in 2024, although sharply lower year over year, is not down enough to offset the small bred beef heifer inventory at the beginning of the year. The beef cow herd is likely down year over year in 2024.”

Peel adds the 12-month moving average of the heifer slaughter percentage of total cattle slaughter has yet to decrease.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the north to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $296.69/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $282.08.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 612,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week and the same as the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.3 million head was 938,000 fewer (-3.9%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 19.7 billion pounds was 163.9 million pounds less (-0.8%).

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher except for 47¢ lower at the back.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Friday, ahead of Monday’s Grain Stocks report and perhaps with some month- and quarter-end squaring.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 24¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 12¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, amid ongoing bullishness about easing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 37¢ to 51¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Retail beef prices continue at record-high levels with the August all fresh beef price at $8.155 per pound and the August Choice beef price at $8.525 per pound, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee.

Griffith explains in his weekly market comments that strong consumer demand, reduced beef production and easing inflation are helping drive prices higher.

“Similar to beef, poultry and pork prices remain elevated. The retail price of pork for August was $4.899 per pound compared to its record high of $5.047 in October 2022. The retail broiler price for August was $1.988 compared to its record high price of $2.013 in May of this year,” Griffith says.

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Cattle futures gained Thursday with higher cash fed cattle prices.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average 39¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB Live prices were $2 higher at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices in the north were $184-$185 and dressed delivered prices were $290-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 lower Thursday afternoon at $296.37/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $282.37.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely farmer selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by positive economic news including fewer initial weekly uninsurance claims than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mixed but mostly higher Tuesday, supported by recently firmer wholesale beef prices stemming from slower packer production.

Recently firm and higher wholesale beef prices, as packers slow production, helped Cattle futures mostly extend gains Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of an average of 26¢ higher, except for an average of 3¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for an average of 6¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $184-$185 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $290-$292 in Nebraska and $290 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 8¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $301.89/cwt. Select was 92¢ lower at $286.87.

Grain and soybean futures closed mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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`Major U.S. financial continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 100 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 33¢ to 63¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Lower commodity prices and higher input costs continue weighing on rural economies, according to the latest Creighton University Rural Main Street Index, which represents a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Across the region, bankers expect approximately 39.1% of farmers to experience negative 2024 farm income. 

The region’s overall reading for September sank for the 13^th consecutive month to 37.5 in September from 40.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business says weaker agricultural equipment sales also weighed on the overall index.

The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7 but remained below growth neutral for the 14^th consecutive month.

“Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss explains.

The region’s farmland price index remained below growth neutral for the fourth consecutive month. It declined to 43.8 in September from 45.5 in August. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 5.3% in the next 12 months.

“Of greater concern, approximately one-fourth of bankers anticipate a 10% to 20% downturn in farmland prices over the next year,” Goss says.

Cattle futures furthered gains Monday with follow-through support from last week, as well as the neutral Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of an average of 88¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt. and $1-$2 higher in the North at $184-$185. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $290-$292 and from $2 higher to $4 lower in the western Corn belt at $290 in a light test.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.90 higher at $184.01. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 20¢ lower at $290.41.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 higher Monday afternoon at $301.81/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $287.79.

Soybeans rallied Monday, boosted by thoughts that China’s easing monetary policy would spur demand. Corn and wheat followed with added support from South American weather worries.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 24¢ to 27¢ higher. Corn futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial edged higher Monday with follow-through support from the previous week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 19¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef production continues remarkably close to last year’s levels with significantly fewer cattle as feedlots ratchet up carcass weights with longer feeding periods.

“Current weekly steer carcass weights are 941 lbs., up 24 lbs. year over year.  Steer carcass weights have averaged 23 pounds heavier for the year to date,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Heifer carcasses are currently 846 lbs., up 21 lbs. from one year ago, with a year-to-date average 19 lbs. above last year.”

As for time on feed, referencing Kansas Focus on Feedlots data, Peel says the current 12-month moving average days on feed for steers at 204 days continues to inch higher at 194 days. 

“Increased days on feed means a slower feedlot turnover rate and helps feedlot maintain the inventory level despite a reduce throughput,” Peel explains.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, spurred along by higher cash fed cattle prices.  

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher across a wide range, from 5¢ higher at the back to $2.50 higher in spot Oct, except for 10¢ lower in away Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures were mixed Friday, closing from an average of 37¢ higher in five contracts to an average of 48¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.92 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon with FOB live prices $2 higher at $183/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade and demand were moderate in Kansas with FOB live prices $2-$3 higher at $183.

Trade and demand were moderate in the North. FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$185. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $290-$292. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $288-$294 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ higher Friday afternoon at $300.19/cwt. Select was 33¢ higher at $288.59.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 610,000 head was 10,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the previous year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 22.7 million head was 943,000 head fewer (-4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.1 billion pounds was 192.9 million pounds less (-1%).

Harvest pressure continued to weigh on grain futures Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed, retaining the week’s sharp gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 3¢ to 18¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as plumb neutral.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, August placements of 1.98 million head were 28,000 head fewer (-1.4%) year over year, which was in line with expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 35% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 47% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.82 million head were 67,000 head fewer (-3.6%) than the prior year, also in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.2 million head were 71,000 head more (+0.6%) year over year, which was also in line with estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle futures bounced higher Thursday with support from bullish outside markets and perhaps with some positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Thursday afternoon at $299.56/cwt. Select was $1.49 lower at $288.26.

Net 2024 U.S. beef export sales of 15,500 metric tons for the week ending Sept. 12 were 36% more than the previous week and 2% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Japan, Canada and Mexico.

Harvest pressure and anemic export sales weighed on grain futures Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, fueled by the previous day’s interest rate cut by the Fed and fewer weekly initial unemployment claims than expected.

For the week ending September 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 522 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 93 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 440 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

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Forecasters estimate a 71% chance of a short-lived La Niña emerging during September-November and persisting through January-March 2025, according to the latest update from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

In the meantime, dryness continues to expand across the nation, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

Abnormally dry or drought conditions encompassed 70.3% of the continental U.S. compared to 55.6% at the same time last year. However, moderate to exceptional drought existed in 35.6% of the nation versus 37.8% a year earlier. Overall, 35% of the nation’s cattle were in drought areas compared to 45% at the same time last year.