Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed strongly higher Tuesday. Support included the sharp decrease in Corn futures, higher wholesale beef values and increasing optimism about higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.36 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.42 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $232-$233/cwt., mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 88¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $357.99/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $358.05.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Tuesday with follow-through pressure from the previous day’s bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 24 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.12 to $1.55 higher through the front six contracts, bolstered by increased geopolitical risk stemming from the conflict in Iran.

Cattle futures were higher Monday helped by the plunge in Corn futures, which was tied to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher (30¢ to $1.65 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $232-$233/cwt., mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 18¢ higher at $231.86. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.13 higher at $364.99.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.48 higher Monday afternoon at $357.11/cwt. Select was $5.88 higher at $358.05. The Choice-Select spread turned negative by 94¢.

As alluded to, Corn futures sank on Monday beneath the weight of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 15¢ to 24¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 62 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 31¢ to 46¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased slightly the projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price, in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, expected prices were $232/cwt. in the first quarter, $234 in the second and $237 in the third for an annual average of $236, which was $1 higher.

“Cattle prices for 2026 are raised on recent price data for the first quarter and tighter fed cattle supplies expected in the second half of the year,” say ERS analysts.

Estimated beef production for the year of 25.74 billion pounds was slightly higher than the previous month and would be 265 million pounds less (-1%) than the forecast total for 2025.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

USDA shocked plenty of folks by increasing domestic yield and production rather than decreasing it as many had expected. Instead, yield estimate increased 0.5 bushels per acre to 186.5 and projected harvested area increased by 1.3 million acres for estimated production of 17 billion bushels, which was 269 million more than the previous month’s forecast.

Projected corn stocks rose by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. However, the season-average corn price received by producers was raised by 10¢ cents to $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean production estimated at 4.3 billion bushels was  up 9 million bushels with yield unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acres and harvested area increasing by 0.1 million acres to 80.4 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 was projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30¢, reflecting reported NASS prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices. The soybean meal price was forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price was unchanged at 53¢ per pound.

WheatThe outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat was for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected ending stocks increased 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8% from the previous year. The season-average farm price declined 10¢ per bushel to $4.90.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday on likely week-end profit taking.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower (65¢ lower at the back to $1.55 lower in spot Jan). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.74 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 higher (5¢ to $1.67 higher), except for an average of $1.39 lower in the front three contracts. During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, an average of $1.50 higher in the front five contracts (12¢ higher to $4.62 higher) and then an average of 43¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices were mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

FOB live trades in Kansas the previous week were at mostly $232.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.16 lower Friday afternoon at $355.63/cwt. Select was 11¢ higher at $352.17. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.66 higher and Select was $5.25 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 553,000 head was 79,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week but 38,000 head fewer (-6.4%) than the same week last year. Estimated beef production for the week of 493.3 million pounds was 69.6 million pounds more than the previous week but 27.1 million pounds less (-5.2%) than a year earlier.

Grain and Soybean futures were mainly firm Friday, ahead of next Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were unchanged to fractionally lower through near Dec and then mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ higher through near Aug and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by signs of a firm labor market.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by only 50,000 in December but the unemployment rate inched slightly lower to 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 12¢, to $37.02. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 191 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.06 to $1.36 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continue lower year over year but showed signs of strengthening, according to the latest data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 93,448 metric tons (mt) in October, down 11% year over year but the largest since June and 16% above the low volume posted in September. Export value was also the highest since June at $759.5 million, down 12% from a year ago but 15% above September.

“The latest export data confirm what I consistently hear from customers across the world and from our international staff – that global demand for U.S. red meat remains robust, despite tight supplies and formidable market access barriers,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Obviously, regaining access for U.S. beef in China is our most urgent priority, as industry losses from this lockout are enormous. But we are also hopeful that ongoing trade negotiations will remove barriers in other destinations where consumers have a growing appetite for high-quality red meat.”

January-October beef exports totaled 949,471 mt, down 11% from the 2024 pace, while value was down 10% to $7.79 billion. When excluding China from these results, exports were down 3% in volume and just 1% in value compared to the first 10 months of 2024.

October beef export value equated to $364.78 per head of fed slaughter, down 4% from a year ago. The January-October average was $390.28 per head, down 5% from the same period in 2024.

For broader context, pork exports totaled 264,657 mt in October, up 5% from a year ago. Value was 7% more at $762.1 million. Both volume and value were the largest since March.

January-October pork exports were 2.43 million mt, just 2% below the record pace of 2024. Export value was also down 2% to $6.93 billion. The year-over-year difference is mostly due to a 20% decline in exports to China (which are mainly variety meats), where U.S. pork is subject to burdensome retaliatory duties.

Cattle futures eased higher Thursday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher.  

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher (67¢ higher toward the back to $2.95 higher in spot Jan).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in Kansas to light on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5 higher at $365/cwt. FOB live prices there last week were $232.

FOB live prices were mainly steady in the western Corn Belt at $232. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $365; the price last week was $360.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $232/cwt. in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.51 higher Thursday afternoon at $356.79/cwt. Select was $2.78 higher at $352.06.

Grain and Soybean futures were softer Thursday with likely positioning ahead of next Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Thursday with pressure from tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 270 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 104 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.31 to $2.70 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures eased lower Wednesday with likely profit taking and await the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.56 lower ($2.10 lower toward the front to 65¢ lower at the back.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.19 lower ($2.47 to $4.50 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $232/cwt. in Kansas, $232 in Nebraska and $230-$232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.03 higher Wednesday afternoon at $354.28/cwt. Select was $1.80 lower at $349.28.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday with likely technical buying.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mostly lower Wednesday with pressure from energy and bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 466 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 62¢ to 79¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Many in the beef industry are hailing new 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs) released on Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The updated DGAs nearly double the recommended daily amount for protein intake, increasing it to 1.2-1.6 grams per kilogram body weight, depending on age group and individual caloric needs, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). The document focuses on building a healthy diet around whole foods, limiting highly processed foods and added sugars, and prioritizing protein at every meal like nutrient-dense beef. Red meat is specifically mentioned as a healthy source of protein in a varied, balanced diet.

“As a mom, I understand the importance of eating nutritious wholesome protein and as a rancher, I see the hard work that goes into providing the best possible food for our communities. The updated and simplified Dietary Guidelines will help more families like mine learn the facts about beef’s nutritional value and make the best decisions when they’re shopping for a nutrient-rich, whole, and delicious protein,” says Kim Brackett, an Idaho rancher and NCBA vice president. “Beef provides high amounts of protein plus nine other essential nutrients like iron and B vitamins, and gold-standard clinical studies have consistently shown that it is easy to incorporate beef into a balanced, heart-healthy diet. We appreciate Secretary Rollins and Secretary Kennedy underlining the role of beef as an important part of a healthy diet.”

Julie Anna Potts, Meat Institute president and CEO echoes those sentiments: “We are pleased the Dietary Guidelines recommend Americans prioritize protein and that families can get that protein from nutrient dense meat and poultry.

“Robust scientific evidence demonstrates that meat is a rich source of high-quality protein, essential vitamins, and highly bioavailable minerals that support human health throughout the lifespan.”

Cattle futures expanded gains Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle and strong cash.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average 80¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.31 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $232/cwt. in Kansas, $232 in Nebraska and $230-$232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.45 lower Tuesday afternoon at $351.25/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $351.08. The Choice-Select spread was a paltry 17¢, the lowest since Feb. 2022.

The short-covering rally faded in the grain complex on Tuesday.

Toward the close, through near Sep, Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday with support across a wide array of markets, from tech to energy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 484 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 42 points higher, but the NASDAQ was up 151 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.28 to $1.37 lower through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment weakened slightly month to month in December, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index declined 3 points from November to 136.

Producers’ long-term outlook drove the weakness with the Future Expectations Index 4 points less at 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128.

“Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and growing concern about global competitiveness continue to influence how farmers think about the future.”

Producers’ views about exports were mixed in December. Only 5% of respondents expected overall U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years. However, 13% of corn and soybean growers said they expect soybean exports to decrease in the next five years, up from 8% in November. Similarly, 8% fewer corn and soybean producers look for soybean exports to increase over the next five years — 39% in December, compared to 47% a month earlier.

More specifically, 84% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, with 45% reporting they were very concerned.

Producers’ confidence in the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy continued to decline in December. Just 54% of respondents said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 58% in October and 59% in November. Uncertainty about the long-run impact of tariff policies also grew, with 19% of producers expressing uncertainty in December compared to 17% the month before. Since this question was first introduced in the spring, the percentage of producers uncertain about tariff effects has more than doubled.

The survey was conducted Dec. 1-5, 2025.

Cattle futures continued higher Monday, following the significant bounce higher during the previous session and supported by last week’s higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices and the recent bounce in wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average $1.14 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.82 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were mainly $3 higher in Kansas at mostly $232/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $232 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $230-$232. Dressed delivered prices were $360, which was $4 higher in Nebraska and steady to $4 higher in the western Corn Belt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $2.35 higher at $231.68/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.33 higher at $359.86.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.73 higher Monday afternoon at $353.70/cwt. Select was $4.58 higher at $351.50.

The grain complex rallied Monday on short covering.

Toward the close, through near Jly Soybean futures were 15¢ to 17¢ higher. Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday with investor optimism regarding the weekend U.S. strike on Venezuela and capture of that nation’s president, reportedly based on drug trafficking charges.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 594 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher, and the NASDAQ was up 160 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to $1.09 higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle and beef markets in 2026 are poised to continue the path of the past few years, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. 

“Tight cattle supplies, decreased beef production, and strong demand continue to support and elevate cattle and beef prices,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Multi-decade lows in cattle inventories are the driving supply force that underpins cattle markets and the market is focused on the cow-calf sector, which holds the key to cattle supplies going forward.”

With cow-calf producers in mind, Peel says price signals indicate what to produce, how much to produce and how resources should be used for that production. 

“Record-high calf prices and cow-calf returns is the market’s way of strongly encouraging increased calf production,” Peel explains. “Moreover, production resources, especially forage resources, should focus on calf production over alternatives such as backgrounding/stocker production. Cheap corn further emphasizes this, encouraging calf production in the country with feedlot placement at relatively lighter weights and finishing as quickly as possible.” 

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures broke higher Friday buoyed by stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and a boost in wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average $3.58 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.91 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.63 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $12.63 higher ($9.92 higher at the front to $13.98 higher at the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $232/cwt.; price the previous week was $229.

Trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in the North. Based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $232 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $230-$232. Dressed delivered prices were $360, which was $4 higher in Nebraska and steady to $4 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.52 higher Friday afternoon at $349.97/cwt. Select was $4.54 higher at $346.92. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.24 lower, but Select was $3.12 higher.

The grain complex continued lower on Friday, pressured by technical selling and favorable South American weather.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 2¢ lower through Aug ’27. Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed unchanged to fractionally mixed.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 319 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher, but the NASDAQ was down 6 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 10¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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As the new year gets underway, here’s some perspective on cattle prices year over year the last week of December:

• The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $30.92 more (15.6%) year over year at $229.33/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $49.48 more (16.1%) at $356.53. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $87.60 (33.6%) higher at $348.65.
• Prices for Medium and Large #1 feeder steers weighing 600-700 lbs. were significantly higher, based on USDA’s weekly stocker summary. The average price the last week of December was $108.98 higher in the North Central region at $413/cwt., $107.77 higher in the South Central region at $392.28 and $94.77 higher in the Southeast at $363.32. That represented an increase of 35-38%.
• Although wholesale beef values never found seasonal holiday spark, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $36.54 higher (11.4%) year over year at $356.12/cwt., while Select was $58.58 higher (20.3%) at $347.46. The Choice-Select spread was $8.66, which was $22.04 less (-71.8%).
• Retail beef prices continued to surge higher. Based on November data — the most recent available data from USDA — Choice retail value was $1.76 higher (21.2%) year over year at $10.08 per pound. The all fresh retail beef value was $1.34 higher (16.6%) at $9.40.
• Along with extraordinary consumer beef demand, declining cattle numbers and beef production explain the price increases. Year to date, through Dec. 26, estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-6.8%) less. Estimated total beef production of 25.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.0%).

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday amid light holiday-trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.02 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $229/cwt. in Kansas, $230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $356 in Nebraska and $356-$358 in the western Corn.  

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $347.45/cwt. Select was 78¢ lower at $342.38.

The grain complex continued mainly lower on Wednesday, led by Soybeans.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 11¢ to 15¢ lower on expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil and continued wonderment about the trade deal with China.

Corn futures were fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday on likely year-end profit taking and positioning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 303 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower, and the NASDAQ was down 177 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 48¢ to 54¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained on Tuesday, led once again by Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average $1.73 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.88 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $229/cwt. in Kansas, $230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $356 in Nebraska and $356-$358 in the western Corn. 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $348.20/cwt. Select was $2.46 lower at $343.16.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday with the positive outlook for a bumper crop in Brazil and year-end positioning.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 94 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower, and the NASDAQ was down 55 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 6¢ to 13¢ lower through the front six contracts.