Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures melted down Friday on President Trump’s widely reported and vague comments that the White House plans to lower beef prices. Algorithmic trading likely drove the selloff deeper and faster than would have otherwise been the case. Fundamentally speaking and guided by history, government intervention in cattle and beef markets has never been favorable to producers.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.50 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.08 lower — limit down in all but the front contract.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $2.59 lower, except for $1.78 higher in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 lower, from 80¢ lower in the back contract to $4.20 lower toward the front.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions, which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska, $5 higher in the western Corn Belt, and compared to two weeks earlier, $7 higher in the Texas Panhandle.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher in Nebraska at $372 and $10-$10.50 higher in the western Corn Belt at $372-$372.50.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 66¢ higher Friday afternoon at $366.77/cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $350.27.

Technical support continued to underpin Grain and Soybean futures Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Mar ’27 and then fractionally higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, helped along by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, at least for the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 117 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 8¢ to 39¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Closure of the federal government, except for what are deemed essential services, is soon to enter the fourth week. Although USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service continues to provide many daily reports utilized by cattle producers, much other pertinent information remains unavailable. For instance, the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates have already fallen victim. The monthly Cattle on Feed report was supposed to be published next Friday.

“Market data and information are critical to modern agricultural industry functions – you can’t manage (or assess) what you don’t measure,” says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Most livestock producers are what economists would describe as price takers,” Tonsor explains. “The available set of market data and information for livestock sellers has long been justification for public investment in collection and reporting efforts by USDA (and other governmental agencies). Over the past couple decades this evolution has included implementation of LMR (livestock mandatory reporting) extending the breadth, depth, and precision of market information in meat and livestock markets.”

At the same time, Tonsor notes ongoing discussions about the value of public data, its cost and net return. He mentions one of the few efforts made to determine those answers relative to USDA data. It was a project conducted by the Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics. Jayson Lusk, agricultural economist, led the project. He is now vice president and dean of agricultural programs at Oklahoma State University. From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Productsreports the findings.

“One of the earliest and most robust findings from the field of experimental economics is that public knowledge of prices is a key factor driving whether a market attains competitive equilibrium (Davis and Holt, 1993),” according to the report. “Market participants often see public sources of data as more objective and credible than private data. Added credibility gives market participants confidence in using public data as the basis of trade (for example, as the base in a formula contract) or forecasting, without fear of that the data has been manipulated by the provider.”

Of course, that’s a mere sliver of the research analyzed in the report.

“For decades U.S. agriculture has been the envy of the world regarding available volume and quality of market information,” Tonsor says. “While I would say that broadly still applies, it is very easy to take that for granted.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the North to inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Nebraska at $240/cwt. and in the western Corn Belt at $238-$240.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235 in Kansas, $234-$235 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $362.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $233.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $366.11/cwt. Select was 23¢ lower at $348.93.

Cattle futures rose Thursday with the promise of higher cash fed cattle prices for the week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 higher, except for 5¢ lower in spot Oct.

Then came President Trump’s widely reported and nebulous comments that the White House had a plan to lower beef prices soon. Through mid-day today, Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.16 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.06 lower — limit down in all but one contract.

Grain and Soybean futures firmed Thursday with technical support and positive chatter about trade talk with China.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed fractionally mixed to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher through Mar ‘27.

Cattle futures paused from the recent surge on Wednesday.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 13¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 19¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed from an average of 34¢ lower, except for an average of 8¢ higher in three contracts.

Cattle futures were mainly higher through mid-day Thursday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in Kansas, $234-$235 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt. Delivered prices were $362.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $233.

Many anticipate sharply higher cash fed cattle prices when gets underway this week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.06 higher Wednesday afternoon at $366.48/cwt. Select was $1.39 lower at $349.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher through Mar ‘27. KC HRW Wheat closed fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Cattle futures rolled higher Tuesday, supported by cash.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.76 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.31 higher. They’re taking a breather so far on Wednesday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in Kansas, $234-$235 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $362.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $233.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 51¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $364.42/cwt. Select was 80¢ higher at $350.55.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday, especially Wheat on likely short covering and technical buying.

KC HRW Wheat closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Jly ’26 and then unchanged to fractionally mixed. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday amid volatility stemming from escalating trade tensions with China and the lingering U.S. government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 202 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 172 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 73¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to churn higher Monday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.12 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.18 higher, except for 12¢ lower in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $235/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $234-$235 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $235. Dressed. Delivered prices were $2 higher at $362.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $233.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.31 higher at $234.07/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $2.88 higher at $362.52.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.66 lower Monday afternoon at $363.91/cwt. Select was $3.36 higher at $349.75.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher on easing trade tensions with China, at least for the day.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday. Presumably it was a softer tone from the White House regarding previously threatened higher tariffs on China, which drove indices sharply lower the previous session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 587 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 102 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 490 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 69¢ to 82¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures started Friday’s session lower with traders apparently taking some profits from the week’s bullish gains. Then cash fed cattle trade erupted with significantly higher prices and futures were off to the races again.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.45 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.96 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in North to mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the last established trades reported for the week, FOB live prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $234-$235/cwt. and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $232-$235. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $362. There were also some dressed delivered trades in the Western Corn Belt at $362, but too few to trend; price the previous week was $360.

FOB live prices in the Southern Plains the previous week were $232-$233.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 35¢ higher Friday afternoon at $365.57/cwt. Select was $2.06 higher at $346.39.

Soybean futures sank Friday in response to heightened trade tensions between China and the U.S. cast further doubt about a resolution between the two countries, which might lead to increased pressure on U.S. agricultural commodity exports.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 15¢ lower.  Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ’26 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday after U.S. President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on China in retaliation for that nation’s increased restrictions on its rare earth mineral exports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 878 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 182 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 820 points.

Oil futures also sank in response to the U.S.-China standoff. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.27 to $2.61 lower through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions across wide swaths of cattle country continue to provide one of the necessary ingredients for beef cow herd expansion.

Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) point to the latest available USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 28, which rated 32% of the nation’s pasture and range in Good or Excellent condition, which was 6% more than a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 35% was rated as Poor or Very Poor which was 8% less than a year earlier.

“In the Southern Plains, current conditions are among the best observed in the past decade, with the share of Poor and Very Poor acres down 19.5% from the same week last year,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The Great Plains have not fared quite as well, though major improvements since early summer have brought conditions back close to the 10-year average, with poor and very poor ratings down 11.4% year over year.”

Feed costs are also lower. Hay prices in August averaged $158 per ton, down 4.8% year over year and 36% less than the peak in August 2022, according to LMIC.

Moreover, LMIC analysts say Grass-Cast forecasts indicate aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of grasslands through 2025 should remain positive relative to the 36-year average.

“The Southern Plains, along with parts of northwest South Dakota, southwest North Dakota and southeast Montana are expected to see growth exceeding 15%,” LMIC analysts say. “Most other areas of the Great Plains are forecast to remain near the long-term average, though some northern regions could experience declines of 5% to 15%.”

Cattle futures continued to climb Thursday supported by fundamental strength and increasing odds of steady to higher cash fed cattle trade this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.75 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.19 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $233/cwt. in the Southern Plains, and $230 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 94¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $365.22/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $344.33.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday, continuing the sideways back and forth with no USDA data — due to the government shutdown — such as the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, to offer direction.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 18 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 18 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 85¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

Traders pushed Cattle futures higher Wednesday, supported by increasing odds that wholesale beef values are near their seasonal bottom and eyes apparently fixed on tightening supplies.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.82 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.40 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $233/cwt. in the Southern Plains, and $230 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 19¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $366.16/cwt. Select was $3.64 lower at $345.24.

Grain futures were higher Wednesday bolstered by hopes of a government aid package and lower reported yields.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mainly higher Wednesday as tech stocks rebounded from the previous session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1 point lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 255 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 35¢ to 57¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher again Tuesday, helped along by the previous day’s announcement of another New World screwworm detection in northern Mexico and a day of higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.71 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $233/cwt. in the Southern Plains, and $230 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.63 higher Tuesday afternoon at $365.97/cwt. Select was 91¢ higher at $348.88.

Grain futures were lower Tuesday, while Soybean futures gained.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by tech stocks and the lingering U.S. government shutdown.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 25 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 153 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 10¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures bounced higher Monday, likely due in part to the U.S. standing pat on Brazilian beef import tariffs, at least for now.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.33 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.73 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $233/cwt.; $4-$5 lower in Kansas at $232-$233, $2-$5 lower in Nebraska at $230 and mainly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $230. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $360.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $1.89 lower at $230.76. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.33 lower at $359.64.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 higher Monday afternoon at $363.64/cwt. Select was $2.59 higher at $347.97.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed to start the week.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again on Monday, amid the backdrop of the continued government shutdown.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 161 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 90¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef cow slaughter is down about 40% since 2022, enough to stabilize the beef cow inventory, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“However, the small beef replacement heifer inventory — down about 27% from the cyclical peak in 2017 — means that prospects for herd growth in 2026 are very limited. Unless heifer retention accelerates late in 2025, herd growth in 2027 will also be limited,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments.

So far, Peel says there is no data confirming that producers, collectively, are retaining enough heifers to initiate herd rebuilding. 

“Prices are expected to peak some months after heifer retention begins, and at this point, are projected to move higher into 2026, depending on the pace of heifer retention, and perhaps beyond,” Peel says. “A sharp peak followed by a pronounced drop seems unlikely at this point. Prices are likely to remain elevated for much of the remainder of the decade with a gentle peak somewhere along the way … It looks increasingly like that peak is being pushed into the last part of the decade.”