Cattle Current Daily—12-16-22

Cattle Current Daily—12-16-22

Cattle feeder patience paid off Thursday as packers paid mostly steady to higher money.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon at $155/cwt. That was steady to $2 higher in the Texas Panhandle but steady to $1 lower in Kansas.

Trade was slow to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $248, which was $1 higher in Nebraska and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt, where live prices were unevenly steady at $155-$157. Live prices in Nebraska last week were $156-$158.

In Colorado, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live prices there last week were $157.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $4.23 higher Thursday afternoon at $254.30/cwt. Select was $1.82 higher at $228.51/cwt.

Bearish outside markets, firmer Corn futures and light trade helped pressure Cattle futures Thursday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ lower (7¢ to 85¢ lower).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Thursday with follow-through pressure from the previous session tied to investor fears that the Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rates will lead to a recession. Weaker monthly retails sales added pressure. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November were 0.6% less than the previous month, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 764 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 99 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 360 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.17 to $1.43 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left projected feeder steer prices for next year unchanged, in December’s monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO).

ERS projects the average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) to be $177/cwt. in the first quarter of 2023, $190 in the second quarter and $214.00 in the third quarter for an annual average price of $201.25. The annual average this year was projected to be $165.68.

“After nearly three months of feeder cattle prices averaging around $174/cwt., tighter supplies of feeder steers likely helped support higher prices in November and early December,” say ERS analysts. “For November, prices for feeder steers 750–800 lbs. at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards recorded a weighted average of $177.35/cwt.  The average price of feeder steers from the December 5 report sales was $177.18. Lower projected corn prices for the fourth quarter also likely supported firm feedlot demand.”

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, ERS projected the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price at $153.00 in the first quarter, $154 in the second and $155 in the third quarter for an annual average of $155.50. This year’s annual average price was estimated to be $144.15.

ERS analysts explain the negotiated cash fed steer price the first week of December (five-area) averaged $156.42/cwt., the highest weekly price for any December since 2014.

“Saturday slaughter volumes in early December are lighter than last year at this time and may portend a slight pullback from relatively high fed cattle prices through the end of the year,” ERS analysts say. “Estimated slaughter in early December suggests a slowing year-over-year pace of fed cattle slaughter. The slower expected pace is carried over into early 2023, as a portion of expected fed cattle marketings were shifted from the first to the second quarter. Heavier expected carcass weights in fourth-quarter 2022 are also carried over into early 2023. The temporal shift in expected marketings and heavier anticipated weights are offsetting, keeping the 2023 beef production forecast unchanged at 26.3 billion pounds.”

2022-12-15T19:29:08-06:00

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