Cattle futures gained Monday, supported by higher cash trade in the South at the end of last week, as well as likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s Cattle inventory report (see below).
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher (80¢ to $2.52 higher).
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $156/cwt., from $2 lower to $1 higher in Nebraska at $153-$156 and $1-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $152-$157.
Dressed prices were steady in Nebraska at $248 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $248.
The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price last week was near steady with the previous week on a live basis at $155.25/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was 50¢ lower at $247.72.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ higher Monday afternoon at $268.10/cwt. Select was 98¢ higher at $251.52/cwt.
Soybean futures led grains higher Monday, supported by recently more positive U.S. exports.
Soybean futures closed 21¢ to 25¢ higher through Aug ‘23, and then 10¢ to 17¢ higher.
Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.
KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher through Mar ‘24 and then mostly 2¢ lower to 8¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, pressured by tech stocks and perhaps positioning ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 52 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 227 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.67 to $1.78 lower through the front six contracts.
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The USDA Cattle report scheduled for release Tuesday afternoon will provide some insight to the drastic level of beef cow liquidation over the last year.
Depending on the analysts you follow, and how you run your own abacus, odds suggest Jan. 1 beef cow numbers will be at least 3.5% less year over year and perhaps as high as the 4% range.
Conservatively, if cow numbers are 3% less, that would mean 2.5 million fewer cows since the most recent peak.
Bottom line is that beef cow numbers at the beginning of this year were likely among the fewest, if not the fewest, ever recorded. If the beef cow inventory is under 29 million head, it will be only the third time in 60 years, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Likewise, heifers retained for replacement are expected to be significantly fewer.