Cattle futures extended support from the previous session, buoyed by recently stronger wholesale beef prices and prospects of higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.16 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $190 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $301 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.42/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $301.04/cwt.
Grain and soybean futures were mixed Monday, perhaps with some positioning ahead of this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jly ’25 and Soybean futures fractionally higher to 8¢ higher through near Nov. However, nearby Kansas City Wheat futures were 19¢ to 24¢ lower with likely harvest pressure.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.18 to $2.70 higher through the front six contracts on projections of summer demand exceeding supplies.
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While fed cattle beef production continues higher than anticipated due to longer feeding periods and the slower packer pace, non-fed beef production is sharply lower so far this year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.
“Total cow slaughter is down 14.1% year over year through the first 21 weeks of the year, with dairy cow slaughter down 13.4% and beef cow slaughter down 14.8% from last year,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “Cow carcass weights are averaging 646.8 pounds, up 10 pounds over one year ago. Bull slaughter is down 7.0% year over year, with bull carcass weights up 28.7 pounds year over year and averaging 892 pounds.”
Conversely, Peel explains fed cattle slaughter is 4.5% less year over year and fed cattle beef production is 2.0% less.
All told, Peel says total non-fed slaughter through May was down 13.6% and total non-fed beef production was down 12.0%, or 1.69 billion pounds less. He adds that non-fed beef makes up 20% of total beef production, on average.
“Fed cattle slaughter is expected to decrease more in late 2024, though carcass weights will likely remain elevated,” Peel says. “Heifer retention may be starting, which would lead to a larger decline in heifer slaughter by the end of the year. Beef cow slaughter may also drop more sharply in the last part of the year. Herd rebuilding typically results in decreased heifer and beef cow slaughter. Moisture conditions through the summer and into the fall will be critical to determine if, and how much, herd rebuilding gets started and the impact on 2024 beef production.”
Hear more of Peel’s insights here.