Cattle futures closed lower Monday, with pressure including Friday’s bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report.
Live Cattle closed an average of $1.09 lower (67¢ to $1.52 lower).
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 lower (50¢ to $2.37 lower).
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191 (a few up to $191.50). Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.
The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.09 higher at $189.56/cwt. The dressed delivered steer price was $4.07 higher at $302.13.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 17¢ higher Monday afternoon at $310.89/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $301.96/cwt.
Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.
KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ higher through Jly ’25, and then mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher, supported by edible oils.
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Major U.S. financial indices softened Monday, with investors appearing to take a breath after last week’s strong gains, while looking toward month-end and quarter-end positioning this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.02 to $1.32 higher through the front six contracts.
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More days on feed, increased feeder cattle imports from Mexico and pulling cattle forward are among the factors underpinning persistently high feedlot inventories despite declining cattle numbers overall, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.
“One of the primary reasons that feedlot inventories have remained as high thus far is due to the continued placement and feeding of heifers,” Peel says. “At some point, increased heifer retention will lead to more pronounced decreases in feedlot inventories, perhaps to levels similar to the 2014 low. It’s not clear when that will happen as herd rebuilding appears to be progressing slowly and drought continues to be a threat to the size of the beef cow herd.”
As mentioned in yesterday’s Cattle Current, cattle on feed March 1 (feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity) was 1.3% more than a year earlier at 11.8 million head, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report. Placements in February were 9.7% more than the previous year and the most for the month since the data series began in 1996.
“Average monthly feedlot inventories continued to climb until the September 2022 peak of 11.8 million head,” Peel explains. “The 12-month moving average of monthly feedlot inventories declined from October 2022 through October 2023 before increasing to the current level of 11.6 million head in March 2024, down 1.8% from the peak.”