Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady to $1.50 higher in Nebraska at $183-$184.50 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $183-$184. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $290 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $290.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 higher Friday afternoon at $305.28/cwt., the highest level since October. Choice was $4.67 higher week to week on Friday. Select was $1.56 higher at $295.74/cwt., up $9.43 week to week.
Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 599,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 5.4 million head was 298,000 head less (-5.3%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 4.5 billion pounds was 194.2 million pounds less (-4.2%).
Cattle futures rebounded Friday, supported by higher wholesale beef prices and strong fundamentals.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.90 higher ($1.30 to $3,10 higher), except for 30¢ higher in newly minted away-Aug. They were narrowly mixed week to week.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.35 higher ($2.77 to $4.27 higher). They were an average of $1.40 lower week to week. Besides higher Corn futures and technical correction, some of the mid-week pressure may have stemmed from concerns about the massive Texas wildfires pushing more cattle to market.
Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Dec ’14 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 10’5¢ higher through the front six contracts.
KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 14¢ to 22¢ lower.
Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 14¢ higher through Aug ’24 and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 183 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.23 to $1.71 higher through the front six contracts.
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U.S. beef exports for fiscal year 2024 were projected $700 million higher than the previous quarterly forecast, in February’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The increase was based on tight domestic supplies and rising unit values.
U.S. agricultural exports were projected $1.0 billion higher at $170.5 billion. Exports of livestock and dairy, as well as grains and feeds, led the increase, offsetting reductions in oilseeds and products.
China was forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports at $28.7 billion. The figure is $800 million less than the previous forecast, largely due to strong South American competition for soybeans and corn.
“Global economic activity continues to moderate in response to ongoing tight monetary policies and weak global trade growth,” according to ERS and FAS analysts. “However, most of the global economy remains resilient due to gradual disinflation and steady growth. As a result, the global economy is expected to avoid a significant economic slowdown in calendar year (CY) 2024.”
For CY 2024, global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was forecast at 3.1%. Projected real GDP growth for the United States was forecast at 2.1% for CY 2024.