Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, with week-to-week gains supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher. Week to week, they were an average of $4.60 higher; an average of $11.51 higher over the past two weeks.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ higher (2¢ to 75¢ higher), except for 2¢ lower in spot Dec. Week to week they were an average of $1.19 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Friday afternoon at $310.52/cwt. Select was unchanged at $274.30. Week to week, Choice was $3.11 higher and Select was up $2.23.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 28.7 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production was 110.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices ended the week and month on a positive note at the end of the holiday-shortened trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 51¢ lower to 72¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 15 points month to month in November to 50.2. That was the first time the RMI was above growth neutral since July 2023.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer.”

Among other RMI highlights…

• Farmland prices sank for the sixth time in the past seven months. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.7% over the next 12 months.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below-breakeven grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” according to Goss.

• The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016.

“This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.

• Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. However, the November confidence index increased to 46.4, its highest level since March 2022.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate with good demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions, which was $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $3-$4 higher in Kansas, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices last week were at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $311.26/cwt. Select was $1.19 lower at $274.30.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 88¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks. However, inflation news provided a bright spot. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% month to month in October, which was in line with expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 115 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ lower to 1¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Heifer slaughter data continues pointing to scant retention, if any, for herd expansion.

In fact, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the percentage of heifers comprising the mix of total cattle slaughter this year will likely be the highest since 2004.

“Heifer retention usually lags changes in cow culling,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Herd expansion results in decreased heifer slaughter rates similar to the 1991-1996 and the 2014-2017 periods.  Current heifer slaughter rates suggest that the beef cow herd has continued to decrease in 2024 and that prospects for herd expansion in 2025 are very limited.”

Although less year over year, Peel says cow slaughter continues at a non-expansion pace.

“Declining cull cow rates are often the leading indicator of producer herd rebuilding intentions,” Peel explains. “Beef cow slaughter is down 17.9% year over year in the first 45 weeks of 2024. This is projected to result in an annual culling rate of about 10%, roughly equal to the long-term average and down from the recent high over 13% in 2022. During herd expansion the cow culling rate typically drops below 9% for 3-4 years.”

Feeder Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, buoyed in part by the temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.74 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186-$187/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $186-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 higher Tuesday afternoon at $311.57/cwt. Select was $1.75 higher at $275.49.

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 119 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 20¢ to 25¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico to the U.S. — due to detection on New World Screwworm in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas — comes with plenty of market questions.

“Roughly 5% of feedlot placements this year have been imported feeder cattle from Mexico,” explain Extension livestock economists in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “The fall months are a seasonally high import period. If the ban on imports of feeder cattle lasts awhile, it would mean a lower supply of feeder cattle going into feedlots. Tight feeder cattle supplies would get tighter which would mean more support for prices.”

Unknowns, according to the economists, include if and where additional cases are identified, duration of the import restriction and whether the ban will continue to affect all imported cattle from Mexico or only those from specific regions.

Economists contributing to the Cattle Market Notes Weekly article are: Josh Maples, Mississippi State University; David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension; Charley Martinez, University of Tennessee.

On Tuesday, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA) provided its members with current insights following a call with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) and others.

Among the TCFA summary points:

• “USDA-APHIS’ goal is to reopen some of the cattle crossings in the next three weeks or so … The length of time it takes to reopen the crossings is largely dependent on how quickly Mexico moves.
• “Crossings where cattle are inspected on the Mexican side of the border will reopen first. For now, that means the crossings in New Mexico and Arizona.
• “USDA-APHIS is requiring that the Mexican government establish additional pre-export pens to verify the safety of Mexican cattle …”

Feeder Cattle futures gained on Monday, due in part to USDA’s temporary suspension of imports and transit of live cattle from Mexico after the positive detection of New World screwworm in that nation (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 higher, except for 45¢ lower in the back contract. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed: unchanged to an average of 27¢ lower through the front four contracts and then an average of 23¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $186-$187, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $186-$188. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB fed steer price last week was $1.60 higher at $186.39/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 72¢ higher at $291.56.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.30 higher Monday afternoon at $309.71/cwt. Select was $1.67 higher at $273.74.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 440 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.84 to $2.16 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA announced the temporary suspension of imports and transit of live cattle from Mexico to the United States after the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection checkpoint close to the border with Guatemala. NWS are fly larvae that infest living tissue of warm-blooded animals, causing infection. NWS was eradicated from the U.S. in 1966.

“Given the northward movement of NWS, APHIS has in recent months stepped up its efforts in Central America to partner with impacted countries to push this pest out of newly affected areas,” says Dr. Rosemary Sifford, Chief Veterinary Officer of the United States. “With this latest find in Mexico, we will further intensify this work to protect American agriculture and reestablish the barrier in Central America.”

NWS maggots can infest livestock and other warm-blooded animals, including people.

“They most often enter an animal through an open wound and feed on the animal’s living flesh,” according to APHIS. “While they can fly much farther under ideal conditions, adult flies generally do not travel more than a couple of miles if there are suitable host animals in the area…

“APHIS is working with partners in Mexico and Central America to stop the spread of NWS into the United States and asking all producers along the southern border to watch their livestock and pets for signs of NWS and immediately report potential cases.”

Visit APHIS for more details.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $186-$187, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $186-$188. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $290. The previous week dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $290-$300.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 62¢ higher Friday afternoon at $307.41/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $272.07. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.07 higher, but Select was $4.07 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 631,000 head was 25,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.2 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.3%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date beef production of 23.9 billion pounds was 27.8 million pounds fewer (-0.1%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, bolstered by the week’s firmer Choice wholesale beef value and steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.08 higher on Friday and were an average of $6.91 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ higher Friday. Week to week, they were an average of $3.06 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Friday.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Nov ‘25 and then mostly 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 426 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 85¢ to $1.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.3 million head in October which was 5.3% more year over year and about 2% more than expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 47% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 40% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.8 million head were 4.7% more year over year, which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.99 million head was 0.3% more than the same time last year, also in line with expectations ahead of the report.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were some dressed delivered sales in Nebraska at $290/cwt., which was steady with last week.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $306.79/cwt. Select was $1.93 higher at $272.92.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 80¢ higher with continued support from improved winter grazing prospects. Live Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower with likely pressure from positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with pressure including the higher U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 461 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 96¢ to $1.38 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, helped along by this week’s firmer Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.43 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 higher Tuesday afternoon at $308.79/cwt. Select was $3.54 lower at $271.91.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday as traders appeared to apply more risk premium based on Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday with tech stocks leading gains once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 120 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 195 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME was marginally higher through the front six contracts.

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Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide regional price perspective for steers weighing 700-800 lbs., in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“The Billings, MT weekly auction data reported last week’s feeder steer price at $264/cwt., which is slightly better than where prices were a few months ago. Prices have been ranging from about $250 to $280 since the start of the year,” LMIC analysts say.

In South Dakota, they explain last week’s feeder steer price was $265/cwt. with prices ranging from about $250 to $280 since July.

“Feeder cattle prices in Nebraska peaked at $295 in mid-July; since then prices have been ranging from $260 to $274, and last week were $267,” according to LMIC analysts.

In the Kansas and Oklahoma, they explain feeder steer prices ranged from about $246 to $270 since March, and last week’s price was $257.

For further perspective, and for steers weighing 600-700 lbs., average prices last week were $31.52 higher year over year in the North Central Region at $290.17/cwt., $27.17 higher in the South Central region at $266.56 and $28.64 higher in the Southeast at $252.41, according to USDA’s  National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

Cattle futures extended gains Monday, led once again by Feeder Cattle and underpinned by strong cash demand for calves and feeder cattle.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.41 higher.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.94 higher Monday afternoon at $307.28/cwt. Select was 69¢ lower at $275.45.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday as traders appeared to apply more risk premium based on Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with tech stocks earning the strongest support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 55 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 111 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.16 to $2.29 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural lenders expect 58% of borrowers to be profitable this year compared to 78% last year, according to the 2024 Ag Lender Survey report produced jointly by the American Bankers Association and the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, more commonly known as Farmer Mac. The combination of lower export demand for U.S. agricultural goods and the rebound of global inventories has put significant downward pressure on global commodity prices and U.S. farm incomes, according to the report released last week at the ABA Agricultural Bankers Conference in Milwaukee. However, profitability expectations varied by region and major commodity types, with livestock producers garnering more optimism from lenders than crop growers.

Among other report highlights:

*Farmland values continued to rise in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. However, regional differences abound, and headwinds have grown in many areas. As a result, most lenders expect land values and cash rents may plateau or decline over the next year.

*Unsurprisingly, liquidity and farm income remained atop the list of lender concerns for producers. Meanwhile, lenders expressed less concern this year about inflation, weather and many other factors affecting producers.

*Concern levels spiked in 2024 for several sectors, including grains, fruits and tree nuts. On the other hand, concern levels dropped for dairy, beef and poultry. The changes largely reflect how the farm income outlook has shifted within each sector over the past year.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.16 higher on Friday, leading the complex higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $5.58 higher, buoyed by lower Corn futures and strong cash demand in the country with added support from recent rains in wheat pasture country.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Dec. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $1.39 higher, except for an average of 40¢ lower in the front two contracts.

That was despite weaker negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

For the week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Southern Plains, $1-$2 lower in Nebraska and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 46¢ lower Friday afternoon at $303.34/cwt. Select was 52¢ lower at $276.14.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 606,000 head was 13,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 27.6 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.7%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 23.4 billion pounds was 125.7 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday on likely corrective buying.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Friday as investors appeared to grow skittish about the path of interest rate cuts and potential policy shifts with the new administration.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 427 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.39 to $1.68 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) bumped this year’s forecast annual feeder steer price slightly higher, and next year’s annual average price slightly lower in the November Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

For feeder steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City, ERS projected prices $1 higher in the fourth quarter at $254/cwt. for annual average price of $250.84, which was 25¢ more than the previous month’s estimate.

“Weekly cattle prices have rebounded from September’s relative lows to establish new highs for October and November,” according to ERS analysts. “They are forecast to continue elevated through 2025, reflecting recent price data and changes to the timing of cattle placements and marketings.”

For 2025, ERS left projected feeder steer prices steady in the first quarter at $248. Forecast prices increased $3 in the second quarter to $257 but decreased $3 in the third quarter to $260 for an annual average price of $258, which was 75¢ less than the prior month’s estimate.

“Earlier this year, it was expected that the number of cattle on feed would shrink year over year in the second half of 2024, based on smaller inventory levels at the beginning of the year, and that year-over-year higher calf prices would result in retention of heifers, limiting numbers in the

Feedlot,” ERS analysts explain. “However, the USDA October Cattle on Feed report estimated the Oct. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.6 million head, nearly flat from the same month last year. Feedlot net placements in September were 2% lower year over year at 2.1 million head. Placements more than offset marketings in September, which registered 1.7 million head, up 2% year over year. As a result, the number of cattle on feed on Oct. 1 has been relatively flat since 2021 despite declining cattle inventories since 2019.”

Combined with fewer year-over-year marketings, they note the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days is higher year over year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Based on the latest established trends, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $185/cwt. and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $182-$185. Dressed delivered prices are $4 lower at $290.

Trade was limited on light demand in the Southern Plains. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $185. Prices last week were $187.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.14 lower Thursday afternoon at $303.80/cwt. Select was $2.00 lower at $276.66.

Cattle futures were mostly lower Thursday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices and sluggish wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 95¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ lower, except for $1.22 higher in spot Nov and unchanged at the back.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday, with pressure from the stronger U.S. Dollar and positive growing conditions.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were lower Thursday. Besides potential rally fatigue, the results of the latest Consumer Price Index, though expected, continue reflecting stubborn inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 207 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 36 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 123 points

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 13¢ to 23¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mainly edged higher Wednesday, awaiting established weekly cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 15¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 15¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 59¢ higher, except for 35¢ lower in spot Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered sales in Nebraska at $290/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $294 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 lower Wednesday afternoon at $306.94/cwt. Select was $1.26 lower at $278.66.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday, with continued pressure from the stronger U.S. Dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were mostly 30¢ to 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday, supported by another day of firmer Choice boxed beef cutout values and likely short covering.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.56 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $294 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 6¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $308.27/cwt. Select was $1.92 higher at $279.92.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, with likely pressure from the stronger U.S. Dollar, profit taking and producer selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Tuesday with likely profit taking and investor wariness about Tuesday’s inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 382 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 17 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 7¢ to 13¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Although bred cow prices are higher year over year, Rob Ziegler, Extension specialist at the University of Wyoming says the increase is likely due to supply and higher cattle prices rather than expansion demand.

In the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, Ziegler explains the October  Cattle on Feed report pegged heifers at 40% of total cattle on feed, whereas consensus suggests the number needs to be 36-37% to signal herd expansion.

“At this point there is little indication that beef cattle producers are retaining heifers to increase cow herd numbers,” Ziegler says.

Cattle futures found some footing Monday, helped along by the firmer boxed beef cutout values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Dec and $1.00 higher at the back of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $294 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $294.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.29 lower at $186.53. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.84 lower at $293.13.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ higher Monday afternoon at $308.21/cwt. Select was $2.65 higher at $281.84.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, presumably pressured by a higher U.S. dollar, farmer selling and sharply lower crude oil prices.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by lower cash prices, lower wholesale beef values and the Goldman role.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.38 lower. Week to week on Friday, they ranged from an average of $1.31 lower in the front four contracts to an average of 93¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.33 lower Friday. Week to week, they were an average of $1.28 lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to light on light demand in other major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$188. Although too few to trend, there were some early trades in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186, where prices the previous week were $190.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.53 lower Friday afternoon at $307.93/cwt. Select was 53¢ lower at $279.19.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.41 lower at $307.93/cwt. Select was $5.84 lower at $279.19. Over the past two weeks, Choice was down $14.31 and Select was $15.89 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 619,000 head was 4,000 head more than the previous week but 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 27 million head was 1 million head fewer (-3.7%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 117.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher through Jan ’26 and then mainly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 259 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.98 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and next, in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on recent prices and the continued strength in beef demand.

Compared to the previous month’s projections, forecast prices increased $2 in the fourth quarter of this year to $188/cwt. with this year’s annual average price up 50¢ at $186.68. The ERS projected prices in the first three quarters of 2025 $1 higher at $188, $187 and $186, respectively. The forecast 2025 average price also rose $1 to $188.

Increased prices came with expectations for increased beef production.

Compared to the previous month, projected beef production for this year rose by 25 million pounds to 27.02 billion pounds. Beef production increased with higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected steer and heifer slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 26.3 billion pounds was 355 million pounds more (+1.4%) than the previous month’s estimate. It would be 745 million pounds less (-2.8%) than this year’s projected production. Estimated beef production rose on heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher-than-previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday with follow-through support from outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.13 lower Thursday afternoon at $309.46/cwt. Select was $3.48 lower at $279.72.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 17¢ to 23¢ higher, boosted by weekly soybean oil exports. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, but mainly higher with follow-through support from the previous session and the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates a quarter-point.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 285 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 34¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.2% of their disposable personal income on food in 2023, on par with the amount spent in 2022, according to USDA’s Economics Research Service (ERS).

Consumer preferences between food-at-home and food-away-from-home spending shifted over time and have returned to trends observed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, consumers spent 5.3% of their disposable personal income on food at home, which was 5.6% less than the previous year. Conversely, expenditures on food away from home rose to 5.9%, up 0.3% year over year. ERS analysts say convenience in meal options, increased disposable personal income and lifestyle changes emerging from the pandemic may have contributed to the shift.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, buoyed by aggressively stronger equity markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 lower Wednesday afternoon at $315.59/cwt. Select was $2.04 lower at $283.20.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were mixed, from 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday with investors cheering results of the presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,508 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 146 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 544 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 11¢ to 21¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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September U.S. beef exports were higher year-over-year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Exports of U.S. beef totaled 103,980 metric tons (mt) in September, up 5% year-over-year, while export value climbed 6% to $843.8 million. January-September exports increased 5% in value to $7.82 billion, despite volume falling 2% to 960,814 mt.

With the exception of China/Hong Kong, September beef exports trended higher than a year ago in all major Asian markets, while demand remained strong in Mexico and shipments to Central America were the largest in 18 months.

“The tourism rebound in Asia has certainly provided momentum for U.S. beef, especially in Japan, Taiwan and Korea,” according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “We also saw impressive growth in the Philippines and Indonesia, which are markets where we see a lot of untapped growth potential.”

Beef export value equated to $412.52 per head of fed slaughter in September, up 3% from a year ago. The January-September average was $414.62 per head, up 5%.

For broader perspective, U.S. pork exports in September of 238,047 mt were 8% more year over year, while value increased 6% to $685.1 million. Through the first three quarters of the year, pork exports were 5% above last year’s pace at 2.23 million mt, with value up 7% to $6.36 billion.

Cattle futures eased higher Tuesday, helped along by more bullish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for 25¢ lower in spot Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in spot Nov and no trade in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill in other major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $317.21/cwt. Select was $1.92 lower at $285.24.

Grain and Soybean futures were stronger Tuesday with follow-through support from positive export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures 2¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with apparent investor optimism regarding the presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 70 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 259 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 49¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment rose significantly and unexpectedly month to month in October based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose 27 points to 115, primarily driven by producers’ increased confidence in the future, with the Future Expectations Index jumping 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also improved, reaching 95, but still reflected producers’ concerns that economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than the barometer’s base period of 2015-16 during the early days of a multiyear downturn in the U.S. farm economy.

In October, only 53% of producers anticipated challenging times for the U.S. agricultural economy in the year ahead, a decrease from 73% in September. Similarly, concerns about the next five years eased, with just 33% of producers expecting tough times ahead, down from 48% the previous month. Additionally, fewer producers expect worsening financial conditions on their farms over the next 12 months, dropping to 23% in October from 38% in September.

“While producer sentiment improved in October, many respondents indicated they are still feeling financial strain due to the deterioration of their financial situation throughout 2024,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Over half of the producers we surveyed reported that their farm’s financial condition was worse than a year ago, which underscores the ongoing challenges producers face despite their more optimistic outlook for the year ahead.”

This month’s survey was conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 18.

Cattle futures were lower Monday with likely technical pressure and uncertainty ahead of the election.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 23¢ lower at $189.82. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.93 lower at $296.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ higher Monday afternoon at $316.91/cwt. Select was $2.13 higher at $287.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were stronger Monday bolstered by positive export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices gave back a lion’s share of previous-session gains as investors pulled their horns in ahead of Tuesday’s election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 257 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.78 to $2.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Heavy rains in Oklahoma over the weekend revived hopes for late-season winter wheat grazing, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Based on the latest weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending Nov. 3, winter wheat planting was 12% less year over year in Oklahoma at 72%, which was 16% less than the five-year average. Emergence of 47% was 20% less than a year earlier and 26% less than average.

Nationwide, winter wheat planting of 87% lagged last year by 1% and the average by 2%. Emergence of 66% was 6% less than the same time last year and 5% less than the average. In terms of condition, 41% of the winter wheat crop was ranked as Good (35%) or Very Good (6%) versus 50% a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 23% was rated as Poor (15%) or Very Poor (8%), compared to 17% a year earlier.

Corn and soybean harvest remained ahead of schedule with 91% of Corn harvested and 94% of soybeans in the bin.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ higher, except for an average of 54¢ lower on either end of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 higher, supported by strong cash trade.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.11 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.77 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady in other regions at $190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 lower Friday afternoon at $316.34/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $285.03. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.90 lower and Select was $10.05 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 615,000 head was 8,000 head fewer than the previous week and 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.4 million head was 1.0 million less (-3.8%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 22.3 billion pounds was 140.2 million pounds less (-0.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday with support from recent export sales but continued harvest pressure and uncertainty surrounding the impending election.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then unchanged to fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Friday despite significantly less job growth than expected.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged month to month in October with just 12,000 more jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, strikes and hurricanes confounded the situation.

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢ to $35.46. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 288 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 144 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 34¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Continued areas of dryness likely will delay market-relevant, nationwide beef cow herd expansion until at least the summer of 2026, says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Moreover, while market-reported dollar-per-cow returns in 2024 are slated to be attractive for many producers, when put on an inflation-adjusted basis, they have yet to exceed the memorable year of 2014,” Tonsor explains. “Likewise, when one moves beyond a dollars-per-cow approach to investment and decision-making framing around percentage returns (ROI, return-on-investment percentage), reflecting elevated capital necessary to operate, then attraction in expansion may be further tempered. While, on balance, I do envision heifer retention will occur nationally, starting in 2026 at the earliest, there indeed are multiple reasons ‘typical’ producers are being rational in not yet pulling the herd expansion trigger. Implications clearly follow for calf crop size and industry capacity utilization discussions to continue as well.”

Live Cattle futures were mixed Thursday and Feeder Cattle futures were lower with pressure from recently lower wholesale beef prices and month-end position squaring.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures ranged from an average of 12¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 50¢ higher, except for $4.60 higher in expiring Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 62¢ lower, except for 17¢ higher in new spot Nov and $1.02 higher in expiring Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Nebraska to a standstill in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady in other regions at $190. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $2 lower at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.84 lower Thursday afternoon at $317.60/cwt. Select was $3.95 lower at $285.37.

Corn and Soybean futures received support from export sales Thursday. For the week ending Oct. 24, net U.S. corn export sales were 7% higher than the previous four-week average and net U.S. soybean sales were 39% more than the prior four-week average.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower, pressured by the wetter outlook for winter wheat areas of the country.

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Major U.S. financial indices took a strong step lower Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 378 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 512 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.67-$1.92 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to move lower Wednesday with weaker wholesale beef values and likely technical correction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.14 lower, except for 82¢ higher in expiring Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate, on moderate demand in the Western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB Live prices were steady to $1 lower at $189-190/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $298 in a light test.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales at $190 in the Southern Plains.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $190 in Kansas and mostly $190 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices were $298.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.17 lower Wednesday afternoon at $319.44/cwt. Select was 64¢ lower at $289.32.

Heading toward the close Wednesday, through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher on likely short covering. Corn futures fractionally mixed to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by less economic growth than expected. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 104 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Sept. 30 were 6% more than the previous month but 2% less than a year earlier, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 1% higher month to month but slightly less year over year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 1% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 1% less than the prior month and 4% less than the same time last year.

Cattle futures ran out of steam Tuesday with technical pressure and lower wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.32 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.76 lower, except for 7¢ higher in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $190 in Kansas and mostly $190 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $298 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298-$300 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.89 lower Tuesday afternoon at $320.61/cwt. Select was $2.22 lower at $289.96.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher Tuesday with the bearish crop rating in Monday’s Weekly Crop Progress report indicating, 38% was in Good (33%) or Excellent (5%) condition versus 47% at the same time last year. 23% was rated as Poor (16%) of Very Poor (7%) compared to 18% a year earlier.

Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with support from tech stocks but pressure from the rising Treasury yield.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 154 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 145 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 10¢ to 12¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in October for the 14^th consecutive month, to the lowest level since the start of the covid pandemic in the spring of 2020.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales, elevated input costs and falling farmland prices drove the decline, according to Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. October’s overall reading declined 2.3 points from the previous month to 35.2. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Approximately, 61.5% of bankers indicated that the financial position of farmers in their service area had deteriorated over the past six months. The remaining 38.5% reported that farmers’ financial position was unchanged over the past six months.

Cattle futures were higher Monday, shrugging off Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, supported by high cash trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 24¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 86¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190-$191/cwt., mostly $2 higher in Kansas at mainly $190 and $2-$3 higher in the North at mostly $190. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $298 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298-$300 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 higher Monday afternoon at $323.50/cwt. Select was $2.90 lower at $292.18.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Monday on the decline on Crude Oil futures and the planting pace in South America.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, helped along by a sell0ff in Crude Oil futures as traders removed war risk premium.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 273 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 48 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $3.54 to $3.81 lower through the front six contracts.

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Continued large inventories of heifers on feed confirms that little or no heifer retention is starting in 2024, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

“Heifer slaughter is down 1.7% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says.  “Heifer slaughter would have to drop significantly more if heifers were being retained for breeding. In the most recent beef herd expansion, heifer slaughter decreased an average of just over 10% each year in 2014 and 2015.”

The quarterly inventory of heifers on feed was 4.6 million head, down 0.9% year over year. Heifers made up 39.7% of the total feedlot inventory on October 1, up slightly from the 39.6% in July. 

Heifers have averaged 39.5% of total feedlot inventories for the past 10 quarters, since July 2022, and have been above the 15-year average of 36.9% since October 2018, according to Peel.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday with likely trepidation ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below). On Friday, Feeder Cattle closed from an average of 12¢ higher across the front half of the board to an average of 32¢ lower across the back half. They were also narrowly mixed in early-Monday trading.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 11¢ lower, except for 40¢ higher in spot Oct and unchanged in April.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 higher (27¢ to $2.07 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 80¢ higher in the front three contracts to an average of $1.60 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the North to inactive on very light demand the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190-$191/cwt., mostly $2 higher in Kansas at mainly $190 and $2-$3 higher in the North at mostly $190. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $298 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298-$300 in a light test.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer was $2.44 higher at $190.05. The average dressed delivered steer price was $2.69 higher at $298.90.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 higher Friday afternoon at $322.24/cwt. Select was 74¢ higher at $295.08. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.59 higher and Select was 88¢ higher. 

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 623,000 head was 15,000 head more than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 25.7 million head was 1 million head less (-3.8%). Year-to-date beef production of 21.8 billion pounds was 146.5 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on profit taking, producer selling and harvest pressure.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower through Aug ’25 and then mostly 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial were mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 259 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 103 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.38 to $1.59 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets viewed the monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral despite more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.2 million head in September, which was 42,000 head less (-1.9%) year over year but 2.3% more than expectations ahead of the report.

Marketings in September of 1.7 million head were 34,000 head more (+2.0%) than the same week last year, which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on Feed Oct. 1 of 11.6 million head was slightly less year over year, which was also in line with expectations. Heifers comprised 40% of the on-feed inventory, which was 1% less than a year earlier.

Feeder Cattle futures softened Wednesday. Perhaps some of the softness had to do with the announcement yesterday that an E. coli outbreak in several states had been linked to a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder; more specifically, slivered onions (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 16¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in away-Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.55 lower Wednesday afternoon at $321.41/cwt. Select was 97¢ higher at $295.77.

Turning to the grain complex, toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were little changed. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed sharply lower Wednesday, under pressure from rising Treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 409 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 296 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 69¢ to 76¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported Tuesday that an outbreak of E. coli O157:H7 had been linked to Quarter Pounders at McDonalds.

“The specific ingredient linked to illness has not yet been identified, but investigators are focused on two ingredients in particular: fresh slivered onions, and fresh beef patties,” according to the CDC … McDonald’s reported to CDC that they proactively removed the slivered onions and beef patties used for the Quarter Pounder hamburgers from stores in the affected states while the investigation continues. Quarter Pounder hamburgers in some states may be temporarily unavailable.”

All told, 49 people from 10 states (mostly Colorado and Nebraska) have gotten sick from the same strain of E. coli.

McDonald’s North America Chief Supply Chain Officer Cesar Piña shared the following internal message…

“…The initial findings from the investigation indicate that a subset of illnesses may be linked to slivered onions used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single supplier that serves three distribution centers. As a result, and in line with our safety protocols, all local restaurants have been instructed to remove this product from their supply and we have paused the distribution of all slivered onions in the impacted area.

“Out of an abundance of caution, we are also temporarily removing the Quarter Pounder from restaurants in the impacted area, including Colorado, Kansas, Utah and Wyoming, as well as portions of Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oklahoma.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, with support from the continued increase in Choice boxed beef cutout values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.33 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.96/cwt. Select was $1.41 lower at $294.80.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher again Tuesday with follow-through support.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 33 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.26 to $1.68 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Monday, likely nudging chart resistance and perhaps with some early positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 50¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.10 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and steady in the North at $187-$188/cwt. with dressed delivered prices also steady at $296.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $187.61/cwt., which was 40¢ more than the previous week. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 29¢ higher at $296.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.21 higher Monday afternoon at $322.86/cwt. Select was $2.01 higher at $296.21.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher Monday, helped by recent export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 10¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed mixed Monday, with primary pressure from a bounce in the 10-year Treasury bond yield.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 344 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 94¢ to $1.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Choice boxed beef prices continue on a tear, hitting $322.86/cwt. Monday afternoon, which was $26.49 than the recent low Sept. 26, and the highest since July.

“The weekly Choice boxed beef price is also at the highest level since July and has averaged 2.2% higher year over year and a record high for the year-to-date,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He adds prices have moved higher for a number of cuts across the carcass.

“The increase in boxed beef prices is perhaps even more surprising in the face of increased fed beef production,” Peel says. “Higher prices and increased quantities suggest that beef demand continues to be very robust.”

For perspective, Peel explains total fed slaughter is down 0.7% percent compared to last year, while steer carcasses have averaged 25.5 lbs. heavier and heifer carcasses have averaged 22.6 pounds for the year to date.

“The result of stronger than expected fed slaughter and heavier carcass weights has been an increase in fed beef production of 1.9% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says. “In fact, for the last 16 weeks, fed beef production has been 3.7% larger year over year.” 

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by lower grain futures prices, stronger wholesale beef prices and the week’s steady-to-higher cash trade.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.98 higher. However, week to week on Friday, Live Cattle were an average of 65¢ lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 lower, unable to overcome the early-week technical correction.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and steady in the North at $187-$188/cwt. with dressed delivered prices also steady at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Friday afternoon at $320.65/cwt. Select was 68¢ higher at $294.20. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $9.48 higher and Select was $5.48 higher, with the Choice-Select spread the widest on Friday since last October.

Turning to the grain complex, Wheat and Soybean futures closed lower with improving weather in South America, harvest pressure, the stronger U.S. dollar and chatter that Russia was going to begin exporting wheat.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 18¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, with continued bullishness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 115 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.21 to $1.45  lower through the front six contracts.

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Calf prices strengthened contra-seasonally in recent weeks amid declining cattle numbers helped along by softer corn prices.

“It is rare to see calf prices escalate as the market moves into the fourth quarter of

the year, but this is no ordinary year,” Griffith says. “The market price of calves and feeder cattle attempted to encourage cattle producers to retain heifers this year to grow the cattle herd. However, most producers have been challenged with drought and marginal profits, which has resulted in little to no heifer retention … The opposite side of the coin is that calf prices may not increase in December and early January as rapidly as would normally be expected.”

Even so, based on relatively lower price levels in preceding weeks, the ERS reduced the projected fourth-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) in the October Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month, the ERS reduced the forecast fourth-quarter price by $2 to $253/cwt. and the annual average price by 41¢ to $250.59.

Projected feeder steer prices for 2025 were unchanged at $248 in the first quarter, $254 in the Second quarter and $263 in the third quarter with an annual average price of $258.75.

Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday, with likely profit taking and technical correcting. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.08 lower

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186-$187/cwt. in the Southern Plains and  $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.51 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.83/cwt. Select was $2.99 higher at $292.09.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower again, amid harvest pressure and lower outside markets, including Crude Oil.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower

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Calves and feeder cattle sold mixed at Tuesday auctions monitored by Cattle Current, in a limited test.

Feeder steers sold from $5 lower to $3 higher at Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, MO, where there were 2,219 head. Feeder heifers traded from $5 lower to $8 higher.

At Also in Missouri, at Kingsville Livestock Auction  The majority of the feeder offering sold steady to $5 higher with 2,082 head on offer. 

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Major U.S. financial closed lower Tuesday, taking a breather from the recent run.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 324 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 187 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.73 to $2.93  lower through the front six contracts.

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Nationwide last week, steers and heifers sold $1-$5/cwt.  higher on good to very good demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). There were 249,600 head reported at auction, direct and via video-internet, compared to 258,200 head the same week last year.

“Buyers continue to want good long-weaned cattle with shots. Very dry,

dirty weaning pens have not discouraged buyers from purchasing the fresh bawling calves that are appearing in the markets,” AMS analysts explain.

At the same time, AMS analysts explain dry conditions are pushing some cattle earlier than planned.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 43% of cattle are in areas affected by drought versus 46% a year earlier

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday, supported by Choice wholesale beef values and softer Corn futures.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher, except for 40¢ lower in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ higher, except for an average of 51¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were generally steady to $1 higher at $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 32¢ higher at $187.21/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 8¢ lower at $295.92.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $313.32/cwt. Select was 38¢ higher at $289.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Monday, with pressure including a positive South American weather outlook and the recently stronger U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes continued higher on bullish sentiment Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.17 to $1.57 lower through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded mixed to higher last week at the weekly auctions monitored by Cattle Current. In fact, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes calf prices are strengthening counter-seasonally.

“October tends to be the month in which calf prices reach their seasonal low, as many producers are bringing their spring born calf crop to market,” Griffith explains in his weekly market comments. “The softness in the market tends to still be evident in November before slowly firming in December. Contrary to this seasonal tendency is the fall of 2024. The price of calves may have already achieved its seasonal low as two consecutive weeks of higher prices to start October may be the price reversal. If the price lows for the fall marketing time period have already been experienced, then cattle producers have much more to look forward to as prices will be expected to increase through the spring.”

Griffith notes the declining cattle supplies coming into play.

“It is well documented that fewer cows were in the herd, which means fewer calves available for stocker, backgrounding, and feedlot operations,” Griffith says. “This known information has been masked to some degree as feeder cattle have continued making their way to the feedlot due to heifers not being retained and strong beef production from growing cattle larger in the feedlot.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended last week generally steady to $1 higher. FOB live prices were generally $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Friday but higher week to week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ lower, except for unchanged in away Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 48¢ higher (5¢ to $1.05 higher), except for an average of 34¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.03 higher (25¢ to $1.70 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.69 higher (7¢ to $4.60 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.27 higher Friday afternoon at $311.12/cwt. Select was $2.01 lower at $288.72. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $8.64 higher and Select was $1.11 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 586,000 head was 25,000 head fewer than the previous week and 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 24.5 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.8%). Year-to-date beef production of 20.7 billion pounds was 152.7 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Turning to crops, Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday, lacking support from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes closed higher Friday, boosted by bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 409 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 60 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 11¢ to 29¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected five-area average direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and the beginning of next year, in the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on prices in September and expectations of continued strong demand for fed cattle.

Compared to the previous month’s projection the ERS increased the five-area price by $1.26 in the third quarter to $189.26 and by $3 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186.18, which was $1.07 higher.

Projected prices for next year increased by $1 in the first quarter to $187. The projected annual 2025 price also increased by $1 to $187.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected beef production for this year by 205 million pounds to 27 billion pounds, which would be slightly more than last year. Next year’s projected beef production of 25.9 billion pounds would be 1.1 billion pounds less than this year’s estimated production (-4%).

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

Corn production for 2024/25was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from the previous month on an increase of 0.2 bushels in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Total use was raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks were cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

2024/25 U.S. soybean production was forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on a projected 0.1-bushel decline in yield to 53.1 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion. Ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month at 550 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 was unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices also were unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42¢ per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat was for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, which still would be 17% more than the previous year. The season average farm price was unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Thursday, with steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $186-$187/cwt. and steady in the North at $187. Dressed delivered prices are steady at $296.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 higher Thursday afternoon at $309.95/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $290.73.

Corn and soybean futures were lower Thursday with harvest pressure and more positive weather in South America. There was also likely positioning ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates due out on Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, pressured by readings of more inflation and employment weakness than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment.

On the labor front, for the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims was 33,000 more than the previous week at 258,000, the highest level since August 5.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 9 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.96 to $2.33 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports weakened toward the end of summer, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports in August totaled 102,682 metric tons (mt), down 6% from a year earlier and the lowest since January. Export value fell 4% to $845.9 million. Through the first eight months of the year, beef exports were 3% below last year at 856,834 mt but were 4% higher in value at just under $7 billion.

“Beef demand in our major Asian markets seemed to lose a bit of momentum in August, but exports held up well to Mexico, Taiwan and the Middle East,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The headwinds in Asia remain formidable, but we are encouraged by the region’s ongoing tourism rebound. The late-September removal of Colombia’s restrictions on U.S. beef is also a positive development. While this came too late to impact the August results, it will help bolster fourth-quarter demand in Latin America.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $391.19 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 1% from a year ago. The January-August average was $414.88 per head, up 5%.

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday, with overbought conditions and the lack of weekly cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few FOB live trades at $187/cwt., but too few to trend. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Southern Plains, $187 in Nebraska and $187-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.34 higher Wednesday afternoon at $308.18/cwt. Select was 2¢ higher at $288.63.

Turning to grains, toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 431 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 55¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday, supported again by recently stronger Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 54¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $187 and mostly steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $296 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $306.84/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $288.61.

Corn and soybean futures were lower Tuesday with harvest pressure and a more positive planting outlook for South America.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 15¢ to 19¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, supported by easing oil prices and stronger tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 259 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.52 to $3.54 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mostly extended gains Monday, supported by recently stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher with the strongest support at the back half of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 higher across a broad range, except for an average of 49¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $187 and mostly steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $296 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.35 higher Monday afternoon at $305.93/cwt. Select was $1.72 higher at $289.33.

Corn and wheat futures added apparent risk premium Monday. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices basically gave back the previous session’s strong gains Monday, under pressure from spiking oil prices and bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 55 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 213 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.72 to $2.91 higher through the front six contracts.

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Approximately half of the winter wheat crop was planted as of October. 6, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report with 51% in the ground, which was 1% behind last year and the five-year average.

However, planting is running well behind in key states like Oklahoma.

“Opportunities for wheat grazing are slipping aways quickly,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “At the end of September, wheat planting in Oklahoma was 22%, compared to a 32% average for the previous five years. Some wheat has been dusted into dry soil to await moisture. Some wheat is up but stands are small and not growing much due to the lack of moisture.” The latest Crop Progress reports pegs Oklahoma planting at 32% versus 43% a year earlier and 46% for average.

As for other crops, 30% of corn was harvested, which was 1% less than a year earlier but 3% more than average. Sixty-four percent was rated as Good (49%) or Excellent (15%) compared to 53% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 47% of soybeans were harvested, which was 10% more than a year earlier and 13% more than average. Sixty-three percent were rated as Good (51%) or Excellent (12%) versus 51% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by more bullish outside markets, indications of stronger cash trade and perhaps added confidence from the resolution to the dock strikes, at least for now.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher (45¢ to $2.25 higher). Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.97 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.78 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $186/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week FOB Live prices were mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.78 higher Friday afternoon at $302.58/cwt. Select was $4.32 higher at $287.61.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 1,000 head fewer than the previous week and 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.9 million head was 950,000 head fewer (-3.8%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 20.2 billion pounds was 150.1 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower again Friday with harvest pressure.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by a monthly jobs report that far exceeded expectations.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 13¢ to $35.36.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 341 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 51 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 219 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 1¢ to 67¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded mainly steady to higher at last week’s auctions monitored by Cattle Current, supported by stronger Cattle futures.

Overall, though, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes there are several factors working against calf prices currently.

“There are a few factors working against calf prices at the moment,”

“The first is clearly the seasonal trend associated with a large number of calves being weaned and marketed during the fall months,” Griffith explains, in his weekly market comments. “The second is the increased incidence of morbidity and mortality associated with the drastic temperature swings that will soon come into play. Third is the widespread drought conditions in many parts of the country.”

Approximately 70% of the continental United States is experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions, according to the current U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s 12% more than a year ago.

Conversely, Griffith notes competition for declining calf supplies will add price support.

“It will not just be stocker producers and backgrounding operations competing for these animals. There will be feedlots looking to place calves on feed at lighter weights as they look to fill pens,” Griffith explains. “With the decline in feed prices and reduced availability of yearling cattle, feedlot managers will be looking for a way to fill the pens and keep them filled for a longer period of time.”

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for an average of 66¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $299.80/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $268.78.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Sept. 26 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday, likely pressured by producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday as crude oil prices continued to climb on worries about disruptions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.93 to $3.57 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with expanding open interest from fund buying.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.00 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $299.81/cwt. Select was $1.37 lower at $283.93.

Grain futures closed higher Wednesday, led by wheat with weather and war premium.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 17¢ to 19¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed slightly higher Wednesday as investors digested the Middle East conflict and the U.S. port strike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.18 through the front six contracts. 

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Feed grain remains 18-24% lower than last year, allowing feedlots to continue holding cattle longer to increase fed weights, according to Hannah Baker, Extension beef cattle and forage economist at the University of Florida.

“Average steer dressed weights reached 925 pounds as of September 1, almost 3% heavier than year-ago levels and 4% higher than the historical average,” Baker explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The percentage of cattle grading Choice has also increased by 3.5% since last year and by 2% compared to the 2018-2022 average.”

Further, Baker notes that while current price trends are similar to those in 2015 during the same period, herd expansion had already begun.

“There was no incentive for prices to climb back up after the typical dip in the fall,” Baker explains. “In the current market, we have not seeing signs of stabilization, much less expansion, and have already hit record prices that we saw back in 2015. This indicates that while we are experiencing some seasonality this year, it is not expected that we are headed for a continuous low level of cattle prices.”

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $300.17/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $285.30.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher, except for unchanged in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower, except for unchanged at either end of the board, pressured by another day of higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 278 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.06 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict. 

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Declining income expectations pushed the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest readings since March 2016. Farmer sentiment fell 12 points month to month to 88. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76.

“The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “It’s notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the U.S. farm economy was in the early stages of an economic downturn. In addition to commodity prices and input costs weighing heavily on their operations, producers are also facing considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead for their farms with the possible government policy changes following the upcoming 2024 elections.”

When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with 34% of farmers citing input prices and 33% pointing to lower output prices as their primary concerns. Interest rates trailed behind as a top concern for 17% of respondents. Producers’ apprehensions about commodity prices matched up with their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports; only 26% of respondents expect exports to rise over the next five years, the most pessimistic response to this question since it was first introduced in 2019. Additionally, 78% of producers expressed concern that government policy changes following the fall 2024 elections could impact their farms.

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.14 higher week to week at $186.15/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was $3.12 higher at $293.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Monday afternoon at $298.08/cwt. Select was $2.45 higher at $284.53.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed were an average of 38¢ higher with follow-through support from last week’s higher cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower except for 17¢ higher at the back with pressure from higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher, buoyed by the neutral to friendly Grain Stocks report and likely quarter-end short covering. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ lower on an improved South American weather outlook.  

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 69 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef cow numbers when 2025 begins will likely be less year over year with limited potential to expand until the following year, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

Although year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 16.3% less so far this year, Peel explains in his weekly market comments, “The rate of beef cow slaughter in 2024, although sharply lower year over year, is not down enough to offset the small bred beef heifer inventory at the beginning of the year. The beef cow herd is likely down year over year in 2024.”

Peel adds the 12-month moving average of the heifer slaughter percentage of total cattle slaughter has yet to decrease.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the north to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $296.69/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $282.08.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 612,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week and the same as the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.3 million head was 938,000 fewer (-3.9%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 19.7 billion pounds was 163.9 million pounds less (-0.8%).

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher except for 47¢ lower at the back.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Friday, ahead of Monday’s Grain Stocks report and perhaps with some month- and quarter-end squaring.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 24¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 12¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, amid ongoing bullishness about easing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 37¢ to 51¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Retail beef prices continue at record-high levels with the August all fresh beef price at $8.155 per pound and the August Choice beef price at $8.525 per pound, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee.

Griffith explains in his weekly market comments that strong consumer demand, reduced beef production and easing inflation are helping drive prices higher.

“Similar to beef, poultry and pork prices remain elevated. The retail price of pork for August was $4.899 per pound compared to its record high of $5.047 in October 2022. The retail broiler price for August was $1.988 compared to its record high price of $2.013 in May of this year,” Griffith says.

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Cattle futures gained Thursday with higher cash fed cattle prices.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average 39¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB Live prices were $2 higher at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices in the north were $184-$185 and dressed delivered prices were $290-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 lower Thursday afternoon at $296.37/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $282.37.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely farmer selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by positive economic news including fewer initial weekly uninsurance claims than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mixed but mostly higher Tuesday, supported by recently firmer wholesale beef prices stemming from slower packer production.

Recently firm and higher wholesale beef prices, as packers slow production, helped Cattle futures mostly extend gains Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of an average of 26¢ higher, except for an average of 3¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for an average of 6¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $184-$185 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $290-$292 in Nebraska and $290 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 8¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $301.89/cwt. Select was 92¢ lower at $286.87.

Grain and soybean futures closed mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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`Major U.S. financial continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 100 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 33¢ to 63¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Lower commodity prices and higher input costs continue weighing on rural economies, according to the latest Creighton University Rural Main Street Index, which represents a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Across the region, bankers expect approximately 39.1% of farmers to experience negative 2024 farm income. 

The region’s overall reading for September sank for the 13^th consecutive month to 37.5 in September from 40.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business says weaker agricultural equipment sales also weighed on the overall index.

The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7 but remained below growth neutral for the 14^th consecutive month.

“Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss explains.

The region’s farmland price index remained below growth neutral for the fourth consecutive month. It declined to 43.8 in September from 45.5 in August. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 5.3% in the next 12 months.

“Of greater concern, approximately one-fourth of bankers anticipate a 10% to 20% downturn in farmland prices over the next year,” Goss says.

Cattle futures furthered gains Monday with follow-through support from last week, as well as the neutral Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of an average of 88¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt. and $1-$2 higher in the North at $184-$185. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $290-$292 and from $2 higher to $4 lower in the western Corn belt at $290 in a light test.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.90 higher at $184.01. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 20¢ lower at $290.41.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 higher Monday afternoon at $301.81/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $287.79.

Soybeans rallied Monday, boosted by thoughts that China’s easing monetary policy would spur demand. Corn and wheat followed with added support from South American weather worries.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 24¢ to 27¢ higher. Corn futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial edged higher Monday with follow-through support from the previous week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 19¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef production continues remarkably close to last year’s levels with significantly fewer cattle as feedlots ratchet up carcass weights with longer feeding periods.

“Current weekly steer carcass weights are 941 lbs., up 24 lbs. year over year.  Steer carcass weights have averaged 23 pounds heavier for the year to date,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Heifer carcasses are currently 846 lbs., up 21 lbs. from one year ago, with a year-to-date average 19 lbs. above last year.”

As for time on feed, referencing Kansas Focus on Feedlots data, Peel says the current 12-month moving average days on feed for steers at 204 days continues to inch higher at 194 days. 

“Increased days on feed means a slower feedlot turnover rate and helps feedlot maintain the inventory level despite a reduce throughput,” Peel explains.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, spurred along by higher cash fed cattle prices.  

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher across a wide range, from 5¢ higher at the back to $2.50 higher in spot Oct, except for 10¢ lower in away Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures were mixed Friday, closing from an average of 37¢ higher in five contracts to an average of 48¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.92 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon with FOB live prices $2 higher at $183/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade and demand were moderate in Kansas with FOB live prices $2-$3 higher at $183.

Trade and demand were moderate in the North. FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$185. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $290-$292. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $288-$294 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ higher Friday afternoon at $300.19/cwt. Select was 33¢ higher at $288.59.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 610,000 head was 10,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the previous year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 22.7 million head was 943,000 head fewer (-4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.1 billion pounds was 192.9 million pounds less (-1%).

Harvest pressure continued to weigh on grain futures Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed, retaining the week’s sharp gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 3¢ to 18¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as plumb neutral.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, August placements of 1.98 million head were 28,000 head fewer (-1.4%) year over year, which was in line with expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 35% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 47% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.82 million head were 67,000 head fewer (-3.6%) than the prior year, also in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.2 million head were 71,000 head more (+0.6%) year over year, which was also in line with estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle futures bounced higher Thursday with support from bullish outside markets and perhaps with some positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Thursday afternoon at $299.56/cwt. Select was $1.49 lower at $288.26.

Net 2024 U.S. beef export sales of 15,500 metric tons for the week ending Sept. 12 were 36% more than the previous week and 2% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Japan, Canada and Mexico.

Harvest pressure and anemic export sales weighed on grain futures Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, fueled by the previous day’s interest rate cut by the Fed and fewer weekly initial unemployment claims than expected.

For the week ending September 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 522 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 93 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 440 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

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Forecasters estimate a 71% chance of a short-lived La Niña emerging during September-November and persisting through January-March 2025, according to the latest update from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

In the meantime, dryness continues to expand across the nation, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

Abnormally dry or drought conditions encompassed 70.3% of the continental U.S. compared to 55.6% at the same time last year. However, moderate to exceptional drought existed in 35.6% of the nation versus 37.8% a year earlier. Overall, 35% of the nation’s cattle were in drought areas compared to 45% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday as traders waited for weekly cash direction.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ higher, except for unchanged and 32¢ lower on either end of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for an average of 9¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.53 lower Wednesday afternoon at $301.38/cwt. Select was $2.47 lower at $289.75.

Heading toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Grain futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts. Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher, supported by early reports of lower yields than expected.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, following a volatile trading session tied to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% rather than the widely anticipated reduction of 0.25%.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated,” according to the FOMC statement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 103 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 54 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 61¢ to 75¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Based on recent price weakness, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) slashed expected average feeder steer prices for the remainder of this year in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month’s projections, ERS reduced the forecast third-quarter price by $9 to $252/cwt. and the fourth-quarter price by $13 to $255 for an annual average price of $251, which was $5.50 lower. The prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts explain the average August price at Oklahoma National Stockyards was $15.78/cwt. less than the prior month and represented the first year-over-year decline since February 2021.

For next year, ERS reduced the forecast first-quarter price by $3 to $248 and the second-quarter price by $5 to $254 for an annual average price of $254, which was $5 less than the previous month’s projection.

As mentioned in Cattle Current recently, the ERS lowered expected five-area direct fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Forecast prices were lowered by $3 in the third quarter to $188/cwt. and by $7 in the fourth quarter to $183 for an annual average of $185.11, which was $3 lower than the previous month’s estimate. Projected prices were lowered in the first quarter next year by $3 to $186 and by $4 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186, which was $5 lower.

Cattle futures gained Tuesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.80 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 66¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $303.91/cwt. Select was 8¢ higher at $292.22.

Heading toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, grain futures were narrowly changed. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled little changed Tuesday, ahead of this week’s Fed decision regarding interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 97¢ to $1.19 higher through the front six contracts.

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Judging by history, U.S. beef cow herd contraction could continue for another year or two, according to Rob Ziegler Extension livestock production and marketing specialist at the University of Wyoming.

“Beef cow slaughter peaked in 2011 at 3.9 million head, roughly midway through the last contraction phase, which ended in 2014 when expansion began,” Ziegler explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Slaughter bottomed out in 2015 at 2.2 million head and started increasing again in 2016. Another peak in cow slaughter was observed in 2022 at nearly 4 million head. In 2023, cow slaughter declined by 12% compared to 2022. From January through August 2023, 2.2 million head of beef cows were slaughtered, compared to 1.9 million head during the same period in 2024.”

Given that 35% of annual cow slaughter occurs, historically, between September and December, Ziegler says it appears total cow slaughter in 2024 will be less year over year at around 2.9 million head. If so, it would the second consecutive year of reduced beef cow slaughter.

Even though market dynamics suggest potential herd rebuilding in the next 1-2 years, Ziegler also points to the different situation faced today than during the last expansion.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs in recent years have negatively impacted income per cow,” Ziegler says. “The question remains whether these margins will be sufficient to encourage expansion within that timeframe. While the drought in 2024 has been more regional, some heifer retention may be correlated with these areas. That said, heifers retained this year will not contribute to the feeder cattle supply for approximately two more years. These factors suggest that the expansion phase may unfold more slowly than it did in 2014.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday, with Live Cattle edging lower and Feeder Cattle mostly eking out gains.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher, except for unchanged and 32¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181, mostly steady in Nebraska at $181-$182 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $182-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $6 higher in Nebraska at $288-$294 and steady to $8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $288-$294.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 93¢ higher at $182.11/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered price was $3.07 higher at $290.61.

Grain futures were lower Monday amid the improved international weather outlook and potential profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 18¢ to 19¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Monday, ahead of this week’s Fed decision regarding interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 91 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.36 to $1.85 higher through the front six contracts.

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Resurgent drought in parts of the Southern Plains is reducing wheat pasture prospects and related calf demand.

In Oklahoma, for instance, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says very little wheat has been planted, or it has been dusted in hoping for rain.

“The start of winter grazing will be pushed back, and stocking rates will likely be reduced due to less available forage through the winter,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “The lack of wheat stocker demand and the beginning of the fall run of calves is putting pressure on cattle auction prices.” 

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday, ending a week of recovery.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 15¢ higher, except for unchanged to 37¢ lower in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.56 higher, gaining back a little more than what was lost the previous week. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.70 higher ($5.72 to $8.17 higher) during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181, mostly steady in Nebraska at $181-$182 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $182-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $6 higher in Nebraska at $288-$294 and $2-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.27 lower Friday afternoon at $304.91/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $294.17.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 620,000 head was 78,000 more than the previous holiday-shortened week, but 11,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 22.1 million head was 932,000 head fewer (-4.1%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 18.6 billion pounds was 204.1 million pounds less (-1.1%).

Corn futures faded the increased yield projections in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 297 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 114 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 32¢ to 51¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle futures rebounded last week, recovering a lion’s share of the previous week’s losses, bolstered in part by steady to higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices. However, Cattle futures have lost their previous lustre in the near term as cash prices drift below year-ago levels, albeit near historical highs.

“Feeder cattle prices have steadily declined for more than two months and now the calf market is taking both a hit from the bearish sentiment in the market and the seasonal price decline that comes in the fall months, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As the market pushes into October, the freshly weaned calf market will likely see further softening of prices as large temperature swings and dry dusty conditions tend to lead to increased weaning stress and thus a higher probability of respiratory issues.”

Cattle futures gained Thursday, supported by steady to higher cash prices and a late-day bounce in outside markets.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, Live FOB prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 18¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.18/cwt. Select was $1.26 higher at $295.64.

Corn futures faded the increased yield projections in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 7¢ higher in expiring spot Sep Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, with more optimism later in the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 174 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.46 to $1.87 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA lowered expected five-area direct fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Based on recent price weakness, forecast prices were lowered by $3 in the third quarter to $188/cwt. and by $7 in the fourth quarter to $183 for an annual average of $185.11, which was $3 lower than the previous month’s estimate. Projected prices were lowered in the first quarter next year by $3 to $186 and by $4 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186, which was $5 lower.

Forecast 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production was raised 59 million pounds (+0.2%) to 26.8 billion pounds on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year.

For 2025, beef production was raised 180 million pounds (+0.7%) to 25.6 billion pounds on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.4%) than this year’s estimated production.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 were 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks were reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.10 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with apparent optimism about the potential for higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 87¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $307.36/cwt. Select was $2.63 lower at $294.38.

Corn and Soybean futures edged higher in nearby contracts Wednesday, as traders prepared for Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and further indication of easing inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5% before seasonal adjustment, which was less than expected. However, core inflation, excluding food and fuel, was slightly higher than expected, up 0.3% month to month and 3.2% year over year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 369 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures hovered amid two-sided trading Tuesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 34¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 28¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $308.23/cwt. Select was $1.48 lower at $297.01.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by the yield outlook and weaker crude oil prices.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 20¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 141 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.89 to $2.45 lower through the front six contracts.

More bullish outside markets helped Cattle futures bounce back Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.91 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.87 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $180-$181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $180-$181 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.63 lower at $181.18/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.75 lower at $287.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 89¢ lower Monday afternoon at $308.52/cwt. Select was $2.36 higher at $298.49.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday with apparent short covering providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in spot Sep. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with investors apparently more bullish about the impact of potential interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 484 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 193 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 97¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions continued to lose ground last week with 29% rated Good (23%) or Excellent (6%), according to the USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 8. That was 4% less than the same time last year. On the other side of the scale, 39% was rated in Poor (24%) or Very Poor (15%) condition, the same as a year earlier.

As for row crops, 5% of corn was in the bin, which was 1% more than the same time last year and 25% more than the five-year average. 64% was in Good (48%) or Excellent (16%), compared to 52% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 65% of soybeans were rated as Good (52%) or Excellent (13%) versus 52% a year earlier.

Negative outside markets and softer cash fed cattle prices helped pressure Cattle futures again Friday. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.09 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.30 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $4 lower in Nebraska at $180 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon, at $309.41/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $296.12.

Estimated total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 542,000 was 69,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.4 million head was 926,000 head fewer (-4.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 18 billion pounds was 216.2 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday amid pressure from lower outside markets and wonderments about next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower. However, Corn futures closed an average of 6’2¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week on Friday. That’s an average of about 15¢ higher in those contracts over the past two weeks.

On Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by bearish labor news.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 month to month in August, which was less than expected. In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by

14¢ to $35.21.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 410 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 436 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.46 to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply month to month in August, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108.

“Weakness in the barometer and related indices provide a signal that farmers are concerned about the possibility of extended weakness in farm incomes, similar to what took place from 2015 to 2019,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

August’s survey results indicate a shift among farmers’ primary concerns, with 30% of respondents identifying lower commodity prices as their primary concern, compared to 33% who cited high input costs. At the same time last year, 20% pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern.

“Farmers have also become less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years,” Mintert says. “The percentage of farmers who think farmland values could decline within the upcoming year has been rising, which is consistent with the weak outlook for financial conditions. The weak capital investment index reading suggests farmers are going to pull back on capital expenditures.”

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31, matching its all-time low.

The latest survey was conducted from Aug. 12-16, 2024.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices in the South and skittish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.64 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.23 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live FOB prices were $181/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle and $1-$2 lower in Kansas.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 9¢ lower Thursday afternoon, at $311.51/cwt. Select was $2.61 lower at $296.78.

Grain futures softened Thursday with likely farmer selling. Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 219 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed from 5¢ lower to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Exports of U.S. beef continued to build momentum in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

July beef exports totaled 110,419 metric tons (mt), up 7% from a year ago and the second largest of 2024. Export value climbed 12% to $910.9 million, also the second highest this year. July growth was fueled primarily by strengthening demand in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and the Middle East and ASEAN regions.

For January through July, beef export value increased 6% from a year ago to $6.13 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (754,152 mt).

“It is very gratifying to see demand for U.S. beef trending upward in Asian markets, with Japan and Taiwan leading the way and an outstanding showing in the ASEAN region,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “U.S. beef has weathered severe headwinds in Asia and especially in Japan, but the outlook for the remainder of the year is encouraging. July was also another impressive month for Mexico, which continues to display excellent demand for an expanding range of U.S. beef cuts and variety meats.”

Pork export volume was 10% more year over year in July. Pork export value was 13% higher at $710.5 million, fueled in part by a record $244.5 million for leading market Mexico.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower, except for an average of 24¢ higher in three contracts, with pressure from early cash weakness in the South.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 lower, pressured by lower Live Cattle and higher Corn.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Kansas to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Kansas at $180/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183 in the Texas Panhandle, $182-$183 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 93¢ higher Wednesday afternoon, at $311.60/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $299.39.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to rally Wednesday with likely short covering and thoughts forecast yield increases might be less than expected.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 16¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices wavered near steady Wednesday, following the previous session’s selloff tied to manufacturing weakness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.03 lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef x dairy production continues to increase as dairy producers use sexed semen to produce more replacement dairy heifers and beef semen on the rest of their herds to add market value to terminal calves. However, the relative contribution of dairy to domestic beef production remains static, says Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“The dairy herd is relatively stable and has only varied by 130,000 head, or 1.4%, from maximum to minimum in the last 10 years,” Peel explains. “The dairy industry contributes an average of roughly 26% of the total U.S. calf crop each year. The contribution of the dairy industry to beef production does not change significantly year to year although the relative share of dairy in beef production increases slightly when the beef industry declines cyclically. Growth in production of beef x dairy crossbred calves does not represent any net additional production of cattle but rather a change in the genetic composition of dairy calf production.”

Peel points out beef x dairy calves are included in commonly available cattle inventory and beef production data.

“Beef x dairy calf production is not having much impact on total beef production and market prices beyond what is already considered in market analysis,” Peel says. “There are some impacts in specific meat markets because the beef cuts from beef x dairy carcasses may have access to markets previously closed to dairy beef.  Arguably, the biggest impact of beef x dairy production is the blurring of the historical demarcation between beef and dairy sectors in the U.S.”

Cattle futures gained Friday as traders closed their book for the week and month. Support included firmer wholesale beef values and positive outside markets.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 87¢ higher.

Cattle futures also gained week to week. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.96 higher (47¢ higher at the back to $3.27 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1 lower in Kansas at $182-$183, steady in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $183-$185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $288-$292. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $293-$295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 3,000 head more than the previous week but 20,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 20.9 million head was 910,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 17.6 billion pounds was 219.4 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Friday afternoon, at $309.34/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $295.82.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 8’6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘25 on Friday and then mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, with support including the monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index coming in line with expectations. The PCE rose 0.2% month to month in July and increased 2.5% year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 197 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.58 to $2.36 lower through the front six contracts.

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Current feedlot inventories mask the continued decline in the domestic feeder cattle inventory, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

This year’s projected total calf crop of 33.12 million head would be 3.22 million head less than the cyclical peak in 2018, according to Peel. He adds this year;s total would be the least since about 1941.

Although the recent USDA Cattle on feed report pegged the August inventory slightly higher year over year, Peel says the 12-month moving average of feedlot inventories peaked in September 2022.

“Total feedlot placements have decreased by 1.3% in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12-month period,” Peel says. “However, in the last year, average feedlot inventories have increased to 11.64 million head. Feedlot inventories have risen countercyclically due to continued feeding of heifers and increased days on feed. Feedlots have slowed the feedlot turnover rate enough to keep average monthly inventories higher despite fewer cattle entering feedlots.”

Cattle futures were lower Thursday, pressured by steady to weaker cash fed cattle prices and the recent decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.45 lower, except for $1 higher in expiring spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.28 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and steady at $184 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices are $1-$3 lower at $292.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 higher Thursday afternoon, at $308.66/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $296.19.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with traders apparently adding some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mainly 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with support including fewer week-to-week initial unemployment insurance claims.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Increased supplies, a strong dollar and several other factors have caused prices for many agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macroeconomy or policy, projected prices generally remain near current levels over the next five years,” according to the Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets from the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

“The cattle sector is the most important exception to the pattern of declining commodity prices,” according to FAPRI. “Past years of drought and low returns have resulted in a smaller U.S. beef cow herd, reducing beef production and pushing up prices for feeder and slaughter animals.”

FAPRI projects the U.S. beef cow herd declining to 28 million to begin 2025 and then growing slowly to 29.5 million in 2029.

Prices for steers (600-650 lbs., Oklahoma City) are projected at an average of $283.70/cwt. this year, rising to $289.65 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

FAPRI forecasts the five-area direct average fed steer price at $187.95 this year, rising to $191.52 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday with pressure including the lack of weekly cash direction and a sharp decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 44¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.68 lower Wednesday afternoon, at $307.29/cwt. Select was $2.62 lower at $297.63.

Grain futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher on apparent short covering. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 198 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.21 lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in August for the 12^thconsecutive month. The region’s overall reading for August sank to 40.9 from 41.3 in July. It was the lowest reading since November of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports weighed on the rural economy, according to Ernie Goss, , Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

“The sad part is that most of our farmers will lose money or just break even due to poor commodity prices,” explains Jim Eckert, CEO of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.

Bankers were asked to compare the current business environment in their area to that prior to Covid-19. Approximately 22.8% reported business conditions were worse while 18.2% indicated business conditions were improved compared to pre-Covid. The remaining 59.0% indicated conditions had barely changed.

Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August confidence index slumped to 27.3 from 28.3 in July.

Cattle futures mainly extended gains Tuesday with hopes the near bottom has been carved, supported by ongoing relative demand strength.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ higher, except for an average of 25¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 lower Tuesday afternoon, at $311.97/cwt. Select was 6¢ higher at $300.25.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday, with apparent recent producer selling and the cheaper U.S. dollar providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the upside Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.20 to $1.66 lower through the front six contracts.

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Compared to the previous quarterly report, USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service increased projected U.S. beef export value $300 million higher to $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2024 (FY24), driven by higher unit values and strong demand in Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan.

However, the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade forecast beef export value $1 billion less than this year to $8.4 billion in fiscal year 2025 (FY25), as lower U.S. production reduces exportable supplies. 

Overall FY25 livestock, poultry, and dairy exports were projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million from FY24, as the decline in beef exports is mostly offset by higher exports of pork, poultry, variety meats, and dairy products.

U.S. FY25 agricultural exports were forecast at $169.5 billion, down $4.0 billion from the revised forecast for FY24. This decline is primarily driven by lower unit values of soybeans, corn, and cotton, as well as lower volumes of beef.

For context, world per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 3.2% percent in calendar year 2024 (CY24) and continue at that pace through CY25.

“Much of the global economy sees easing inflation in goods and increasing wages supporting consumer spending,” according to the report. “However, global GDP growth is subdued by continued strong inflation for services and continuing tight monetary policy as many central banks wait on the United States before relaxing interest rates to avoid shocks to investment that could adversely affect exchange rates.”

U.S. GDP is expected to rise 2.7% in CY24 and then slow to 1.9% percent in CY25 2025.

Cattle futures moved higher Monday, although many thought traders might see bearishness in more placements than expected in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $6 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 lower in Nebraska at $293-$295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.60 lower at $185.54/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 lower at $293.93.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.44 lower Monday afternoon, at $315.90/cwt. Select was 27¢ lower at $300.19.

Grain futures were mixed Monday. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with follow-through support from expected interest rate cuts but pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 152 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.28 to $2.25 higher through the front six contracts.

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Inventory-based fed cattle supplies appear rather bearish through the third quarter and then bullish, according to Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“The weakening feed grain market through this spring and summer incentivized feedlots to grow larger animals – costs of gain were dropping, and prices remained strong. And feedlots responded,” Koontz says. He explains the inventory of cattle on feed more than 150 days was modestly lower July but still more than the prior four years. He adds cattle on feed more than 120 days was sharply lower.

Referencing the recent Cattle on Feed report, Koontz also notes July feedlot placements of 1.70 million head — on the top side of expectations — points to market bullishness down the road.

“The number suggests early placement of animals from regions with drought-pressured forage, and perhaps tighter numbers later into the fall,” Koontz says. “Thus, the heavy placements are actually a bit bullish. The futures for feeder cattle reacted strongly with up moves on the fall run contracts.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday as traders waited the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which will likely be viewed as neutral to slightly bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 29¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 49¢ higher in the front three contracts to an average of 62¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 lower (22¢ to $2.92 lower). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 lower week to week (20¢ to $3.37 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 higher Friday afternoon, at $317.34/cwt. Select was $1.57 lower at $300.46.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 608,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week, but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 20.3 million head was 893,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (-1.3%).

Grain futures continued to leak lower Friday, while Soybean futures gained on increasing export demand.

Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher. Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then unchanged to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, pointing to interest rate cuts.

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” according to Powell, who was speaking at the closely watched economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

“Four and a half years after COVID-19’s arrival, the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading,” Powell explained. “Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 462 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 258 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected. Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in July, which was 94,000 head more (+5.8%) than the previous year, about 2% more than the average of analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 38% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.9 million head were 133,000 head more (+7.7%) year over year, but 0.5% less than expectations.

Cattle on Feed Aug. 1 of 11.1 million head were 31,000 head more (+0.3%) more than the previous year, which was in line with expectations.

Short covering on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report appeared to be the main driver of firming Cattle Futures. Heading into the close Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.22 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 78¢ higher Thursday afternoon, at $315.99/cwt. Select was 95¢ higher at $302.03.

Grain and soybean futures were lower Thursday pressured by positive weather and yield estimates.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly were 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 18¢ to 22¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by tech stocks and rising treasury bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 177 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 299 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to $1.05 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the expected third-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $2 to $261/cwt. in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. That was based on recent price weakness. This year’s projected average also declined by $2 to $256.50. However, the estimated fourth-quarter average price of $268 was unchanged, as was next year’s projected average of $262.50.

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current USDA increased the projected the average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday, supported by positive outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.88/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $300.50/cwt.

Toward the close on Wednesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices maintained their strength Wednesday, supported one again by a tamer than expected inflation reading.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after declining 0.1% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were slightly higher through the front six contracts.

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Calf numbers will be relatively tight this fall, and likely expensive, especially if there is wheat pasture to keep stocker demand strong, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Plus, Peel explains feedlot cost of gain has declined and will likely decline further, giving feedlots wider berth to compete for stocker cattle amid limited supplies.

“Feedlots are expected to place some feeder cattle that are lighter weight than usual as they attempt to maintain feedlot inventories. In the current market environment, prices across the spectrum of feeder cattle prices by weight generally suggest that stocker producers are increasingly relegated to the small end of feeder cattle. The basic signal is for stocker producers to purchase lighter cattle and turn them over more quickly,” Peel says. “In general, the market signals are to move limited feeder cattle supplies through the system more intensively to keep beef production as high as possible with fewer cattle. This does not mean that other stocker programs, e.g. owning cattle longer and putting on more weight, will not work but will require careful planning at the outset.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, supported by positive outside markets and firmer wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.93/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $300.61/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather and the outlook for high yields, in tandem with anemic export demand.

Toward the close on Tuesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Tuesday, supported by less wholesale price inflation than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 90 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 407 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 27¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were unable to extend gains from the previous session, apparently pressured once again, in part by demand concerns.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt. and mostly $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$187, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.11 lower at $191.34. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.59 lower at $304.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 higher Monday afternoon at $315.83/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $300.17/cwt.

Turning toward the close on Monday, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher with support from lower than expected carryover in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Through Jly ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mainly narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.71 to $2.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area average direct fed steer prices for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Other WASDE Highlights

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a decline in harvested area of 700,000 acres was more than offset by increased yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of 183.1 bushels per acre would be a record-high and was 2.1 bushels more than the previous month’s projection.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.20 per bushel.

Cattle futures closed higher with week-end positioning and positive outside markets but were lower week to week, unable to recover from the early-week meltdown.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.92 higher (77¢ to $3.12 higher). However, they were an average of about $2.44 lower week to week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.77 higher Friday but were an average of $6.22 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices were $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $312.71/cwt. Select was 56¢ higher at $298.59/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures continued lower Friday ahead of Monday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates with many expecting increased yields.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to rebound Friday from the steep early-week selloff, buoyed by a positive employment reading.

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims were less than expected at 233,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 51 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 85 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 47¢ to 65¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef continues to flex its muscle as consumers’ animal protein of choice, given demand at historically high retail prices.

“In June, the Choice retail price of beef was $8.12 per pound which was 2¢ lower than June 2023. The all-fresh retail price of beef was $8.00 per pound, which was 42¢ more than June 2023,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is clear consumers want and demand beef, but competing meat prices also play a role in what consumers do.”

For instance, Griffith explains the retail pork price in June was 20¢ higher year over year at $4.88 per pound and the retail broiler price was 5¢ higher at $2.01 per pound.

“Given price relativity, the all-fresh retail price of beef is up 5.6% while the pork price only increased 4.2% over the same time period,” Griffith says. “Consumers will consider this price relativity when making purchasing decisions, but it is clear beef is the preferred meat protein.”

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and softening wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited or light on moderate demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. Dressed delivered prices are $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $298.03/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were lower again Thursday with pressure from bullish production weather.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, as investors continued adjusting to the early-week selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 683 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 119 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 464 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 89¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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June exports of U.S. beef reached the highest value in nearly two years, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 110,155 metric tons (mt) in June, down 4% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024. Export value reached $938.3 million, up 3% year-over-year and the highest since August 2022. Through the first half of the year, beef export value climbed 5% from a year ago to $5.22 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (643,733 mt).

“June beef exports performed very well in Japan, which was great to see given the significant headwinds U.S. beef has faced there this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Export value also rebounded nicely in Korea and shipments to Taiwan and Canada were outstanding. This made for another strong month in terms of export value per head slaughtered, which was nearly $460 in June.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $459.21 per head of fed slaughter in June, up 13% from a year ago. The January-June average of $418.37 per head was 6% more than the first half of 2023.

June U.S. pork exports totaled 224,392 mt, down 9% from a year ago and the lowest since September, while export value fell 5% to $659.7 million. However, January-June volume was 3% more than the first half of 2023, while export value increased 5% to $4.26 billion.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193/cwt. and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. There were a few trades in Kansas at $190.50 but too few to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188 in the Texas Panhandle and $188-$195 in Kansas. Dressed delivered prices were $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.96 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.85/cwt. Select was 79¢ lower at $298.83/cwt.

Cattle futures continued to grind for support from the recent selloff Wednesday as early cash fed cattle prices eroded.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher, except for an average of 4¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 88¢ lower.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure from promising yields. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are due out Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ lower.    

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 234 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 40 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 171 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.51 to $2.27 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures tried for gains early in Tuesday’s session, in the wake of the recent selloff but ended mainly slightly lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 32¢ lower except for an average of 33¢ higher in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 36¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher at the back.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $187-$195 in Kansas, $196 in Nebraska and $194-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.81/cwt. Select was 44¢ lower at $299.62.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 17¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday amid a relief rally from steep declines during the last three sessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 166 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved in July despite financial performance concerns, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index rose 8 points to 113, the Index of Current Conditions increased by 10 points to 100, and the Index of Future Expectations rose 7 points to 119 from a month earlier.

“Declines in crop prices point to lower producer incomes this year, so the increase in optimism was somewhat puzzling,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Fewer producers citing rising interest rates as a primary concern for the upcoming year corresponds with the modest improvement in their perspectives on capital investments, but respondents continue to express hesitancy to make large investments.”

High input costs remained the primary concern for a majority of respondents, followed by the risk of lower crop and livestock prices.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from July 15-19.

Cattle futures sank lower again Monday, tracing the selloff in outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of $6.57 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 76¢ lower last week at $194.45/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.74 lower at $309.60.

Wholesale beef prices did rebound Monday, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $4.17 higher in the afternoon at $317.94/cwt. Select was 85¢ higher at $282.34.

Grain and soybean futures extended gains Monday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 11¢ to 15¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower again Monday with continued recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,033 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 160 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 576 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite the smallest beef cow herd at the beginning of this year since 1961 and record cattle prices the last couple of years, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says there continues to be little indication of herd expansion.

“Beef cow slaughter is sharply lower, down nearly 16% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “However, that level of beef cow slaughter, combined with the low beef replacement heifer inventory in 2024 implies that the beef cow herd continues to liquidate by another 0.5-1.0% in 2024. Beef cow slaughter would have to drop by roughly 22% year over year to avoid additional liquidation this year.”

Moreover, Peel notes beef replacement heifer inventories in recent years mean that there is no pipeline or momentum for herd expansion compared to previous expansions. He adds the threat of continuing or redeveloping drought is stalling rebuilding efforts.

“The beef cattle industry is smaller than needed and signals for rebuilding will continue and grow in coming months. However, herd rebuilding is likely to be slow to start and proceed quite slowly initially,” Peel says.

Cattle futures continued to carve a sharp path lower Friday, as equity markets unwound with growing concerns of recession.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed average of $4.15 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $297.17/cwt.

Short covering on profit taking earlier in the week helped Grain and Soybean futures close higher Friday. Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices continued sharply lower amid recession fears.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly less than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8¢ in July to $35.07. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 100 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 417 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.79 to $2.81 lower through the front six contracts.

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Overall, domestic consumer beef demand remains strong, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his latest weekly market comments.

“The late summer and early fall will give the market an idea if consumers are going to continue spending discretionary dollars on beef at the elevated retail price level,” Griffith says. “Some would argue consumers are slowing down, but where they are getting that data is lost on me. That is not to say the market will not slow down, but at this point, I cannot point to the data that says it is.”

On the other side of the gate, Griffith notes the leverage feedlots are using to keep negotiated cash fed cattle prices propped higher despite seasonal tendencies.

“There will continue to be downside price risk the next two or three months, but such risk is beginning to look less daunting as time passes,” Griffith says. “There have certainly been a few hiccups that may strike a chord of fear, but it will dissipate. Cattle feeders have leverage and will maintain leverage due to reduced cattle availability.”

Cattle futures were sharply lower Thursday, weighed down by wobbly cash trade, technical selling, bearish outside markets and lower wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.97 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190 in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.98 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.79/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $297.46/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 17,700 metric tons (2024) the week ending July 25 were 32% more than the previous week and 35% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Mexico and China.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.  

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher on likely short covering. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices fell hard Thursday, pressured by investor worries about a potential recession.

Weekly initial unemployment claims were higher than expected at 249,000. As well, the ISM manufacturing index was lower than expected in July, pointing to further economic contraction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 405 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 68¢ to $1.02 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although beef cow slaughter is 16% less year over year through the first 28 weeks of the year, the rate of slaughter is comparable to last year, relative to beef cow inventories, says James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

“One reason for the large decrease in beef cow slaughter is we started with fewer beef cows this year,” Mitchell explains. “Through 28 weeks, beef cow slaughter reflects 5.5% and 6.4% of beef cow inventories in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Beef cow slaughter is down 294,000 head, but we started the year with 716,000 fewer beef cows compared to 2023.”

Mitchell adds that lower beef cow slaughter this year also reflects improved forage conditions and higher cattle prices.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 55¢ lower to an average of 29¢ higher with the most support in nearby months.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $314.77/cwt. Select was $1.22 lower at $300.16/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday.  

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday supported by doveish Fed comments suggesting interest rate cuts could be on the table in September as inflation moderates and economic growth slows.

The latest, closely watched ADP^® National Employment Report™ pointed to slowing job and wage growth. Private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in July, less than expected, and annual pay was up 4.8% year-over-year, according to the report.

“With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve’s effort to slow inflation,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “If inflation goes back up, it won’t be because of labor.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 85 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 451 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.90 to $3.76 higher through the front six contracts, supported by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the 11th consecutive month, according to the July survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Specifically, the region’s overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023. The June reading was 41.7.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports drove the decline, according to Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Among survey highlights:

• The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June’s 31.8. “This is the 12th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.
• On average, bankers expect farmland prices to drop by 3.4% over the next 12 months.
• Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July confidence index slumped to 28.3, its lowest level this year, and down from June’s 29.2.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed but mainly higher Tuesday.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 41¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 39¢ higher, except for 31¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 33¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $314.48/cwt. Select was 14¢ lower at $301.38/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with continued pressure from the favorable weather outlook.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 16¢ to 30¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with the main pressure from tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 203 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 222 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 69¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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National pasture and range conditions continued on par year over year for the week ending July 28, according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress report, with 39% rated as Good (32%) or Excellent (7%). Likewise, 29% were rated as Poor (17%) or Very Poor (12%), which was the same as last year.

States with 45% or more of pasture in Poor or Very Poor condition included: New Mexico (50%), Oregon (49%), Virginia (64%), Washington (59%), West Virginia (65%) and Wyoming (57%).

“Drought in certain areas and improved conditions in other areas creates uncertainty to the feeder cattle and calf price outlook for this fall,” says Will Secor, Extension livestock economist at the University of Georgia, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “If drought incentivizes producers to bring more calves to market compared to normal, calf prices may see a more pronounced seasonal dip this fall in those areas, while still remaining high compared to recent history. However, in areas with good conditions, calf supplies may remain tight this fall, pushing prices higher than expected.”

Cattle futures stepped lower Monday with apparent technical selling.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.20 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.75 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1.50-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $190, $2 higher in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $196-$198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $312/cwt.

Last week’s weighted average five area direct FOB live steer price was $1.54 higher at $195.21/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.30 higher at $311.34.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.04 higher Monday afternoon at $314.81/cwt. Select was $4.06 higher at $301.52/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 12 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 91¢ to $1.28  lower through the front six contracts.

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Although Choice boxed beef prices have declined seasonally by 5.4% since July 4, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University notes they are 3.4% higher year over year.

“Beef tenderloin is the highest value beef cut and the price has been quite flat and lower year over year for much of 2024,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “This weakness is a bit concerning but the fall may provide an important indicator of tenderloin demand going into cooler weather and the seasonal pick up in restaurant traffic. In contrast, the other steak cuts have values that are generally at or above year-ago levels, including ribeye, strip loin, and top sirloin.”

While the majority of Chuck products are currently priced on par with last year or less, Peel says overall Chuck primal values are 6.6% higher year over year in July and Round primal values are nearly 21% higher, driven by less lean trim derived from non-fed beef production. He notes non-fed beef production is down about 13% so far this year.

“The current wholesale price of 90% lean trimmings is at a record level,” Peel says. “The market is attempting to make up for the shortage of lean beef in the non-fed market by pulling more lean beef from fed beef supplies. This mostly comes from several round cuts but also likely from the chuck mock tender (one of the few lean cuts in the Chuck). Markets always attempt to balance supply and demand and the increased arbitrage between fed and non-fed beef markets today is an indication of a very unusual market situation.”

Cattle futures closed mixed to higher Friday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices and firmer wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from 13¢ lower to 28¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.13 higher with added support from lower Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1.50-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $190 and $2 higher in the North at $198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.31 higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was $2.35 higher at $297.46/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 600,000 head was 16,000 head more than the previous week but 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 17.9 million head was 833,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.1 billion pounds was 236.9 million pounds less (-1.5%).

Grain futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking, producer selling and a more favorable weather outlook.

Soybean futures closed 22¢ to 38¢ lower. Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by a favorable inflation reading.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% month to month in June was and was 2.5% higher year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was in line with expectations.

Between cooling inflation and stronger economic growth than expected, investors are growing more confident in interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 654 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 176 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 79¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

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Besides their ongoing willingness to pay for beef at historically high retail prices, consumers also continue demanding higher quality.

“This point has been demonstrated and made evident the past couple of months when Prime grade beef prices have increased week over week, when other quality grades of beef declined the same week or when Prime grade beef price only experienced a small price decline when other grades of beef experienced larger price declines,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “To some degree, packers purchasing higher grading cattle tends to be a natural insulation or insurance to price changes in wholesale beef prices. Prime beef prices will still tend to move in the same direction as other beef prices, but they do not appear to have the same downside risk as other grades in the current market. As a reference point, the Prime beef cutout has averaged trading $22/cwt. higher than the Choice cutout the past three months.”

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, supported by the prospects of steady to higher cash trade, as well as more favorable domestic economic growth than expected.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher across a wide range. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to inactive on very light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were som early live FOB sales in Kansas at $190/cwt.

Last week, live FOB prices were $188-$188.50 in the Texas Panhandle, 187-188 in Kansas and $196 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $312.46/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $295.11/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts Corn futures were mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 15¢ higher as traders applied more weather premium. However, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower on bullish harvest reports and anemic export sales.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with continued pressure from tech stocks but with support from more robust economic growth than expected.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter this year, according to the “advance” estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, and business investment. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 160 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 57¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Food price inflation is easing, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). Although retail food prices rose 0.9% during the first half of this year, it was significantly less than the year-over-year increase of 4.8% at the same time last year and the 1.9% average increase from 2003 to 2022.

“Compared with recent years, price growth slowed across categories partly because of economy-wide factors, such as reductions in supply chain congestion and softening consumer demand for goods, although price trends differ by food category,” ERS analysts say. “For example, prices for cereals and bakery products showed minimal growth since mid-2023, following strong price increases throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. In contrast, the midyear inflation rate for meats in 2024 exceeded its growth in the first half of 2023.”

Cattle futures were mostly lower Wednesday, pressured by bearish outside markets and the lack of weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower, except for unchanged to an average of 45¢ higher in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $188-$188.50/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, 187-188 in Kansas and $196 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $312.68/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $293.96/cwt.

Grain futures firmed Wednesday, while Soybean futures declined after recent gains.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally high to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 11¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday, as investors bailed out of tech holdings, and bellwethers like Tesla and Alphabet posted sub-par earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 504 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 128 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 654 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.21 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.72 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were steady to 50¢ higher in the Texas Panhandle at $188-$188.50/cwt. steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $187-$188 and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 23¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.21/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $296.66/cwt.

Traders continued adding weather premium to Soybean futures Tuesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower.     

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.08 to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

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Inventories of cattle on-feed longer than 90 and 120 days are above historical averages for several reasons, according to Rob Ziegler, Extension livestock economist at the University of Wyoming.

“Lower ration prices, coupled with high fed cattle prices, are incentives for producers to put weight on cattle,” Ziegler explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The increase in popularity of beef on dairy cattle, as shown by a reduction in veal, also contributes to increased days on feed.”

Although longer feeding periods and heavier carcasses have boosted beef production higher than originally anticipated, Ziegler notes third-quarter beef production is projected to be 5.6% less year over year.

Cattle futures strengthened Monday, helped along by positive outside markets and the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), which indicated fewer placements than expected last month.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.05 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 54¢ higher, well off session highs, capped by advancing Corn futures. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were steady to 50¢ higher in the Texas Panhandle at $188-$188.50/cwt. steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $187-$188 and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was 57¢ lower at $193.67. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.56 lower at $310.04.

Choice boxed beef cutout value (p.m.): 39¢ lower at $313.44/cwt. Select was 47¢ lower at $298.33/cwt.

Soybeans led the grain complex higher Monday with short covering and apparent weather premium based on the global outlook.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 21¢ to 33¢ higher. Corn futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Monday, as investors bought back tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 127 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 280 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ to 25¢ lowermthrough the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides further perspective to the recent monthly Cattle on Feed report in his weekly market comments.

“Although the feedlot inventory has been slow to decrease, feedlots have been placing fewer cattle as feeder supplies have dwindled in recent years,” Peel says.  “The total U.S. calf crop peaked in 2018 in the most recent cattle cycle and has been declining each of the past five years. The 2024 calf crop is estimated to be another 1.5% smaller year over year leading to a total decline since 2018 of 8.9% or 3.2 million head.”

While marketings in June were 8.7% less year over year, Peel explains average daily marketing were slightly higher when accounting for two less business days this year than last.

Peel also points out the percentage of heifers in the on-feed mix July 1 was near the highest level in the past 20 years at 40%.

“The heifer percentage of feedlot inventories drops below the average level (36.7%) during periods of heifer retention and herd rebuilding and is above average during periods of herd liquidation,” Peel explains.

Cattle futures continued mostly lower Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), which could provide some support Monday.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 47¢ lower, except for an average of 65¢ higher in the front two contracts. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of 85¢ lower (40¢ to $1.30 lower), except for 72¢ higher in spot Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower on Friday. They were an average of $1.73 lower week to week (92¢ lower at the back to $3.05 lower at the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live FOB prices were unevenly steady in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.32 lower Friday at $313.83/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $298.80.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.23 lower week to week on Friday at $313.83/cwt. Select was $3.51 lower at $298.80.  Over the last two weeks, Choice is down $16.60 and Select is down $6.26.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 584,000 was 17,000 fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer (-6.7%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 17.3 million head was 821,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 14.6 billion pounds was 242.5 million pounds less (-1.6%).

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday in search of a bottom and also likely impacted by the widespread internet outage.

Corn futures closed fractionally mixed to unchanged. Kansas City Wheat futures 7¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Friday, as investors sold mega-tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 377 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 144 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.19 to $2.69 lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, placements of 1.56 million head in June were 115,000 head less (-6.8%) year over year, which was about 4% less than pre-report expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 39% went on feed weighing less than 700 lbs., 44% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in June of 1.79 million head were 171,000 head fewer (-8.7%) than the previous year, which was 0.5% less than estimates ahead of the report. Marketings were the second lowest for the date since the data series began in 1996.

Cattle on feed July 1 of 11.3 million head were 61,000 head more (+0.5%) than a year earlier, but that was 0.7% less than expectations ahead of the report.

Heifers and heifer calves comprised 40% of the on-feed mix, the same as a year earlier.

Heifer slaughter is 1% less year over year, and cow slaughter is down 14%, through the first six months, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). However, the weekly-average percentage of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix during that period is the third most of the last 20 years, according to ERS analysts, in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Cattle futures sagged lower Thursday with the week’s wobbly cash fed cattle trade, sharply lower outside markets and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 lower. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the North to mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live FOB prices are unevenly steady in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and dressed delivered trades are $2 lower in Nebraska at $310/cwt.

Last week, live FOB prices were mostly $198 in the North with dressed delivered prices at $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.01 lower Thursday afternoon at $316.15/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $299.46/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales were 15,400 metric tons (mt) for the week ending July 11, according to USDA’s weekly export sales report. Volume was 85% more than the previous week and 11% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower with pressure likely including anemic export sales. Net U.S. corn exports were 19% less than the previous week and 10% less than the prior-four-week average.

Kansas City Wheat futures were narrowly mixed. 

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, with more rotation from tech stocks and apparent profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 533 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 125 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 58¢   lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) for the remainder of this year and next, in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Projected prices increased $6 in the third quarter to $269/cwt. and $5 in the fourth quarter to $268. This year’s annual average price increased $3.54 to $258.50. Forecast prices increased by $4 in the first quarter of next year to $251 and by $4 for the annual 2025 average to $262.50.

“In the first half of 2024, forage conditions have generally improved from a year ago, corn prices are relatively less expensive, and the prospect for higher fed cattle prices this year have supported strong feeder cattle prices … the expected supply for feeder cattle available in second-half 2024 will remain tight, supporting elevated feeder cattle prices,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon with early FOB live trades at $188/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312.

Live Cattle futures strengthened Wednesday as cash fed cattle traded steady in the South. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, perhaps with some positioning and wariness ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Estimates ahead of the report peg June placements at 3% less year over year, June marketings about 8% less and the July 1 on-feed inventory about 1% more.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 lower Wednesday afternoon at $318.16/cwt. Select was $3.15 lower at $298.44/cwt.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 24¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 39¢ higher.  

Grain and Soybean futures continued to firm Wednesday with more short covering and some support from the lower U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed widely mixed Wednesday, as tech stocks retreated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 512 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.08 to $2.31 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mostly strengthened Tuesday, supported by bullish outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 57¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Aug and an average of 9¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and mostly $198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312 in Nebraska and mostly $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.23 lower Tuesday afternoon at $319.26/cwt. Select was $3.23 lower at $301.59/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures firmed Tuesday with likely short covering. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S.  financial indices closed higher again Tuesday, amid multi-sector support and growing optimism about interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 742 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 35 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 36 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 95¢ to $1.09   lower through the front six contracts.

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Feedlot net returns through August are projected to be positive, based on the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University (K-State).

“Steers sold in June are estimated to have experienced positive net returns of $51.12/head. This reverses a six-month trend of losses for the modeled feedlot situation,” explains Glynn Tonsor, K-State agricultural economist, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Several factors underlie the improved returns in June. Steers sold in June are modeled to have $111/cwt cost of gain which is well below the $122 average for the first five months of 2024. Similarly, a June fed cattle sales price of $185/cwt being above the $182 average for the first months of 2024 further aided in turning June net returns positive.”

Tonsor notes the data series reflects a cash situation, presumes no ongoing hedging of feed or cattle price movement, and is intended to provide a barometer of profitability trends rather than precise estimates for any given feedlot situation.

Beyond August net feedlot returns are projected to be negative through March of next year.

“The projected switch to negative returns primarily reflects increased feeder cattle placement prices negating comparatively small increases in outgoing fed cattle sales prices,” Tonsor says. “While each operation certainly has unique considerations to make in using this barometer of profit trends, the broader dynamics in both feed and cattle markets will remain worth watching in coming months as discussions around relative cattle supplies and status of beef demand strength evolve.”

Feeder Cattle futures moved higher Monday, helped along by wilting Corn futures, while Live Cattle futures sought near-term direction. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 62¢ higher.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from 25¢ lower to 37¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains $198 in Nebraska and mostly $198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312 in Nebraska and mostly $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ lower Monday afternoon at $321.49/cwt. Select was $2.51 higher at $304.82/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures took a step lower Monday, pressured by the continued positive weather outlook. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 16¢ lower. Soybean futures were 26¢ to 29¢ lower. 

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Major financial indices closed higher Monday with investors apparently betting the failed assassination attempt on former President, Donald Trump, will lead to another term in office, accompanied by market-friendly policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 210 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 74 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 24¢ to 34¢  lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices are etching lower as markets enter the summer doldrums.

“Beef demand usually slows between the July 4 and Labor Day holidays as both summer grilling and high-end restaurant traffic slows in the heat of the summer,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “The early-July drop in boxed beef price is the result of seasonal weakness in the main middle meats: Tenderloin, Ribeye and Strip Loin. Wholesale prices for a number of other cuts continue to move higher, including for Tri-tip and Flank steak, along with numerous chuck and round cuts. Several lean round cuts are no doubt supported by the record-high price for lean trimmings that is pushing wholesale ground beef value to ever-higher record levels.”

Peel also notes beef production in June was 3.8% more year over year, driven by slightly higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.

“Carcass weights finally showed some decrease with the latest reported steer carcass weights the last week of June at 911 pounds, down from 924 pounds five weeks earlier,” Peel says. “Summer heat is likely a factor in declining carcass weights, as well. The decrease in carcass weights has been much slower than is typical through June and it is not clear what the seasonal pattern will be for the remainder of the year. Carcass weights typically begin increasing seasonally in July, but steer carcasses are already 27 pounds higher year over year, even with the recent decrease.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to limited with very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $197-$198.50. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $312. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $312-$315.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 75¢ higher (12¢ to $1.15 higher). However, they were an average of $2.63 lower week to week on Friday. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher on Friday but were an average of $4.66 lower week to week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 41¢ higher Friday afternoon at $322.06/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $302.31/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was down $8.37 and Select was $2.75 lower.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 601,000 head was 79,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week, but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 16.7 million head was 778,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 14.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (1.6%).   

Corn futures firmed Friday, buoyed by a bullish WASDE. They closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher, but they were an average of 9’7¢ lower through the front six contracts week to week on Friday.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Dec ’25 and then unchanged to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 12¢ lower through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major financial indices closed higher Friday with extended investor optimism regarding the potential of interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 247 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 115 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 16¢ to 41¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.

Price expectations increased despite higher forecast beef production. Compared to the previous month, this year’s beef production was projected 65 million pounds more at 26.7 billion pounds with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter. Beef production for next year was projected 100 million pounds more at 25.5 billion pounds based on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by lower cow slaughter. Next year’s estimated beef production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.5%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures firmed Thursday.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow with light to moderate demand in the North to inactive with very light demand in the South through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $198. Dressed delivered prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $312. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn belt the previous week were $312-$315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 lower Thursday afternoon at $321.65/cwt. Select was 56¢ lower at $303.38/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday on oversold conditions. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 22¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major financial indices closed mixed Thursday with much of the give and take attributed to the lower inflation reading than expected, boosting hopes for an interest rate cut.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after being unchanged in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 364 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 30¢ to 83¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to unwind Thursday, pressured by declining wholesale beef value and lower cash trade in the South.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 61¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.94 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at$188/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.61 lower Wednesday afternoon at $324.05/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $303.94/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Wednesday ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 12¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 25¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and with investors apparently betting on a favorable Consumer Price Index due out Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 429 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 218 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 36¢ to $1.04 higher through the front six contracts.

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A recent economic analysis of the national Beef Checkoff program found that each dollar invested in its demand-driving activities for the most recent five-year period (2019–2023) positively impacted domestic beef demand and U.S. beef exports, creating a total financial benefit of $13.41 for the producers and importers who pay into the program.

The Beef Checkoff commissioned the independent economic analysis to assess the effectiveness and additional financial benefits produced by the program’s demand-driving activities. The analysis was conducted by Dr. Harry M. Kaiser of Cornell University.

Cattle futures tried to gain early again in Tuesday’s session but broke back, apparently spurred in part by a knee-jerk reaction to mid-day Choice boxed beef prices which were $4.87/lower; Select was $1.69 lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.52 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$193 in Kansas.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.81 lower Tuesday afternoon at $325.66/cwt. Select was 41¢ lower at $304.31

Front-month grain futures firmed Tuesday while Soybean futures continued to erode. Positive weather continues to apply pressure. As the week continues, traders will also be positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher to 8¢ higher in spot Jly. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed again Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 90¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Continued strong heifer slaughter suggests that little, if any, heifer retention for herd rebuilding has begun, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He notes this, along with longer feeding periods, are why average monthly feedlot inventories June 1 were the same year over year, and through the first half of this year, were only 2.2% less than peak levels in September of 2022.

“Supply fundamentals will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year and beyond,” Peel says. “Beef production will likely finish the year down 3.0-3.5% year over year, less than previously expected due to continued heavy carcass weights. Feedlot inventories and cattle slaughter will continue to decline, perhaps faster if heifer retention begins in a significant way. Barring outside shocks, cattle prices will remain at record levels and push even higher if herd rebuilding begins in the coming months.” 

Peel notes mid-year cattle prices are at record-high levels.

“Fed steers averaged $195.81/cwt. (live basis) and 850-pound, Med/Large, No. 1 steers averaged $255.41/cwt. in Oklahoma auctions prior to July 4,” Peel says.  “Likewise Boning cull cows, average dressing, averaged $143.22/cwt. with high-dressing Breaker cows averaging $154.41/cwt. Steers calves are priced slightly below the March seasonal peak but averaged $324.53/cwt. before July 4 for 475-pound Med/Large, No. 1 steers, down from the $350.85/cwt. March average.”

Cattle futures tried to gain early in Monday’s session but ran out of steam to close lower in what turned out to be a risk-off day in ag commodities, perhaps with some positioning at the beginning of the Goldman Roll.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.34 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady to $3 higher in Kansas at $190-$193.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 4¢ higher Monday afternoon at $330.47/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $304.72/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures lost ground Monday, with added pressure from more moisture in the forecast. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 12¢ to 17¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 15¢ to 30¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday as investors await key inflation data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 56¢ to 94¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef export value topped $900 million in May, which was 3% more year over year and the most since June 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. beef export value equated to $410.94 per head of fed slaughter in May, up 3% from a year ago.

In terms of volume, May beef exports totaled 110,133 metric tons (mt), down 5% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024.

Exports trended higher year-over-year to Japan, Mexico, the ASEAN Region, the Middle East, the Caribbean and Central America – which included a record month for Guatemala. May export value was also higher for Taiwan.

For January through May, beef exports followed a similar trend, increasing 5% year-over-year in value to $4.29 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (533,578 mt). January-May U.S. beef export value equated to $410.40 per head of fed slaughter, which was 5% more than the same period last year.

“It has been encouraging to see demand stabilize in Japan, where U.S. beef certainly faces significant headwinds,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The tourism boom has provided a much-needed lift for Japan’s foodservice sector, and it is a source of optimism for buyers and importers. Taiwan and the ASEAN region were also bright spots for U.S. beef in May, along with Western Hemisphere markets such as Mexico, Guatemala and the Caribbean.”

May pork exports totaled 251,447 mt, down 4% from a year ago, valued at $715.8 million (down 2%).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $190/cwt. in a light test.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312 but stretched as high as $317.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $330.43/cwt. Select was 68¢ higher at $305.06/cwt.

Cattle futures mainly drifted lower in light post-holiday trade on Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ lower, except for an average of 41¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.49 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures rallied on Friday, with Wheat receiving support from export sales and Corn buoyed by a spottier rain forecast.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 11¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, supported by a weaker labor report than expected, boosting hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was slightly higher at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 10¢ to $35. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 67 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 164 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 72¢ to 77¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in June for the 10^th consecutive month. Specifically, the RMI declined from 44.2 in May to 41.7 in June. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business explains higher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales were key drivers of the decline.

“Farm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year,” says James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa.

Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, supported by strong wholesale beef values and prospects of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices for the holiday-shortened week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains at mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312 but stretched as high as $317.

For added perspective, last month’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $8.82 higher year over year at $193.33/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $13.04 higher at $307.26.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 55¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $329.84/cwt. Select was $2.10 lower at $304.38/cwt.

Corn and Kansas City Wheat futures softened Wednesday with pressure from favorable weather. Heading into the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

Futures and equity markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Independence Day.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed, as investors seemed to mostly ignore weaker than expected job growth, by one measure.

Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June, according to the June ADP^®National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute^® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

“Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 23 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by strong wholesale beef values, which were propped up further by lost production at Cargill’s plant in Dodge City for a few days this week, due to a partial roof collapse, owing to heavy rain last weekend. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.54 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312, but stretched as high as $317.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.21 higher Tuesday afternoon at $330.39/cwt. Select was 7¢ higher at $306.48/cwt.

Front-month Corn and Soybean futures gained Tuesday, likely with additional short covering. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 10¢ lower with likely harvest pressure. 

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Major U.S. financial indices gained again on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 149 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment drifted lower in June, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which declined 3 points month to month to 105. A 5-point decline in the Index of Future Expectations to 112 drove the weaker outlook as the Current Conditions Index increased 1 point to 90.

High input costs, the risk of lower commodity prices and rising interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment.

“The impact of rising interest rates on their farm operations has become a bigger concern for producers in recent months,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Interest rate risk and high breakeven levels combined with concerns that crop and livestock prices could weaken are holding back producer sentiment and making producers cautious about making large investments.”

More producers indicated that it is not a favorable time for large investments compared to May, while the percentage of producers who viewed it as a good time remained the same. The Farm Capital Investment Index declined 3 points to a reading of 32, just 1 point above its historical low.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from June 17-21.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., unevenly steady in Kansas at $190, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $198 (some up to $200) and mainly steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $198.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $312 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $312. Prices ran as high as $317 in both regions.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price was 97¢ higher at $195.81. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.92 higher at $313.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 higher Monday afternoon at $329.18/cwt. Select was $1.91 higher at $306.41.

Cattle futures softened again Monday with sluggish interest. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.05 lower.

As for the grain complex, short covering seemed to be the order of the day. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mainly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices gained on Monday, helped along by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 50 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 146 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.32 to $1.84 higher through the front six contracts, as traders appeared to add risk premium based on political tensions in the Middle East and concerns about hurricane season. Holiday demand added support.

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Between USDA’s estimate of planted area in Friday’s Acreage report and trendline yields, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says corn production this year would be about 15 billion bushels. If usage remains steady, he explains the stocks to use ratio would increase to more than 16%.

“This level of stocks has not been seen since the 2005/06 crop year,” Koontz says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “New crop corn futures have fallen to between $4.15-$4.20 and $4.00 will be pressured if yields are better than the trend, which seems likely, given the rainfall that much of the Corn Belt has seen. The cattle – and every other protein animal – industry is looking at prospects of the lowest feed grain prices in years.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were unevenly steady at $190/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand with some early FOB live trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $198, but too few to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 11,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 15.6 million head was 729,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 13.1 billion pounds was 209.7 million pounds less (-1.6%) year over year.

Cattle futures softened Friday with likely profit taking, month-end positioning and traders apparently leery to step out ahead of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.14 higher in the front three contracts ($1.25 to $5.90 higher) as the expiring spot Jun closed some of the broad gap with cash. From there Live Cattle were an average of 75¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.72 lower on Fiday. Week to week they were an average of 60¢ lower, except for 92¢ higher in spot Aug.

Corn futures dove lower Friday with the bearish Acreage report, applying pressure to Wheat and Soybeans, along with likely month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower. Week to week they were an average of 31’0¢ lower through the front six contracts, an average of 47’3¢ lower over the past two weeks.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower through May ’25 and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through near Nov  and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled lower Friday, as investors squared books for the end of the month.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 126 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 19¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Thursday, with likely profit taking and no cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ lower, except for $1.47 higher and unchanged in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 lower, except for 15¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 48¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $323.33/cwt. Select was 16¢ lower at $302.70/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower again Thursday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Thursday, ahead of key inflation data Friday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 53 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 34¢ to 91¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Prices for food away from home (FAFH) — eating out — grew more quickly over the last decade than food at home (FAH), and the overall rate of inflation, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“Prices for all consumer goods and services across the economy, as measured by the all-items Consumer Price Index, rose by 34.3% between January 2014 and May 2024,” ERS analysts say. “FAFH prices climbed steadily over the past decade and were 49.5% higher in May 2024 than January 2014, while prices for FAH, or groceries, rose 29.9%.”

Cattle futures powered ahead Wednesday, helped along by record and near-record high cash fed cattle prices at a strong premium to the Board. Floundering Corn futures added support.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.24 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $322.85/cwt. Select was $2.40 lower at $302.86/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday, helped along by tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 87 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ lower to 13¢ higher, through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers May 31 were 3% less than the previous month and down slightly year over year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report

Frozen pork supplies were down 3% from the previous month and down 9% from a year earlier.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 3% less month to month and 5% less year over year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 3% from the previous month but down 5% from a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.39/cwt. Select was 19¢ higher at $305.26/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to lower on Tuesday, as traders bided their time for further cash direction. Before settlement, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 28¢ lower to an average of 32¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with apparent fund selling and potential positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Heading into the close, Corn futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 220 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 55¢ to 85¢ lower, through the front six contracts.

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Although corn and soybeans will likely receive the lion’s share of attention in Friday’s USDA Acreage report, the number of hay acres could provide hints to herd expansion in terms of availability and cost, according to Matthew Diersen, risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University.

“Earlier this year producers expected to harvest 51.6 million acres of hay in the U.S. in 2024,” Diersen says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “While down slightly from last year, the expected level exceeds the total expected for recent years. Acres above the prospective level would be a sign of expansion plans.”

For perspective, Diersen explains the 10-year average U.S. hay yield is 2.4 tons per acre. Using the average for the expected acres, he says, would result in 124 million tons of hay, exceeding last year’s production by 5 million tons.

“Thus, any acreage figure close to last year would likely generate the tons needed to keep prices reasonable,” Diersen says.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Monday, as traders sorted through Friday’s bearish Cattle on Feed report, in tandem with the surge in negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher in the front two contracts and then narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 22¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 15¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $189-$190/cwt. and $2-$5 higher in Kansas at $188-$191 with some as high as $198. FOB live prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $197-$198 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $197-$198.

Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $310-$312 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $310, but with prices stretching as high as $314.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.29 higher at $194.84/cwt., which was $12.27 higher year over year. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.08 higher week to week at $310.55; it was $20.74 higher year over year.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 25¢ higher Monday afternoon at $322.64/cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $305.07/cwt.

Turning to row crops, grain futures edged lower Monday, while Soybean futures gained.

Heading into the close, through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ lower to fractionally higher. Soybean futures closed were 8¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with support from bank and energy stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 192 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 86¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Heading into July, pasture and range conditions continue positive across much of the nation, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report (week ending June 23), with 47% rated as Good (39%) or Excellent (8%), which was 3% more than a year earlier.

On the other side of the scale, 25% was rated as Poor (15%) or Very Poor (10%), compared to 24% a year earlier. Key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (37%), New Mexico (69%) and Texas (41%).

As for row crops, 97% of corn was in the ground, which was 1% less than a year earlier but 1% more than the five-year average. Sixty-nine percent was in Good (55%) or Excellent (14%) condition, compared to 50% a year earlier. Seven percent was rated as Poor (5%) or Very Poor (2%) versus 15% a year earlier.

Similarly, 97% of soybeans were in the ground, which was 2% less year over year but 2% more than the average. Sixty-seven percent were in Good (56%) or Excellent (11%) condition, compared to 51% a year earlier. Eight percent were in Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%) condition, compared to 14% the prior year.

Winter wheat harvest was running ahead, too, with 40% in the bin, which was 19% more than the same time last year and 15% more than average. Fifty-two percent was in Good (42%) or Excellent (10%) condition versus 40% a year earlier. Fifteen percent was in Poor (10%) or Very Poor (5%) condition, compared to 28% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which proved to be bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ lower, except for an average of 56¢ higher in the front two contracts. They were an average of $1.27 lower week to week on Friday, except for $1.47 higher in spot Jun.

Feeder Cattle futures an average of $1.21 lower. They were an average of $2.81 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on moderate demand in the north through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to establish a trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $310-$312/cwt. and some FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $197.

Based on final established trade the previous week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 48¢ lower Friday afternoon at $322.39/cwt. Select was $1.29 lower at $303.11/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 620,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 29,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 15 million head was 687,000 head fewer (-4.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.6 billion pounds was 197.3 million pounds less (-1.5%).

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, there were an average of 16’3¢ lower through the front six contracts. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 7¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 52¢ to 56¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.0 million head in May (+84,000 head), which was 4.3% more year over year and 6% more than expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 19% went on feed weighing less than 600 lbs., 15% weighing 600-699 lbs., 24% weighing 700-799 lbs., 26% weighing 800-899 lbs., 11% weighing 900-999 lbs. and 4% weighing 1,000 lbs. or more.

Marketings in May of 1.9 million head were slightly higher (+3,000 head), which was in line with expectations.

The June 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was slightly less than a year earlier (-7,000 head), whereas estimates ahead of the report pegged it 1% lower.

Cattle futures drifted lower Thursday, lacking the week’s cash fed cattle direction and perhaps with some wariness about Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the estimates you consider, analysts peg May placements about 2% less year over year, May marketings about even and the June 1 cattle on feed inventory about 1% less.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ lower, except for an average of 49¢ higher in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 37¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.17 higher Thursday afternoon at $322.87/cwt. Select was $1.14 higher at $304.40/cwt.

Turning to grain and Soybean futures, heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures closed were 10¢ to 18¢ lower.

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Yearling steers and heifers sold steady at Tulia Livestock Auction (1,634 head) in Texas. Stocker calves sold with a higher undertone.

Feeder steers and heifers sold $5-$8 higher at Woodward Livestock Auction (1,187 head) Oklahoma. Steer and heifer calves sold with a higher undertone in a light test.

Remember, if you’re looking for a weekly market summary and highlights, check out the CalfNews Price Point podcast that comes out each Tuesday. You’ll find it at CalfNews.net

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 140 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 77¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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For the first four month of the year, cattle on feed longer than 150 days May 1 was the highest in 12 years, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“According to industry participants, some packers are foregoing typical discounts on cattle above certain weights, further incentivizing feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer, especially as they maintain feedlot capacity utilization in the face of slowing placements,” ERS analysts explain.

Year over year for the week ending May 25, 2024, steer carcass weights were 37 pounds heavier and heifer carcass weights were 29 pounds higher, according to ERS.

“This additional weight is enabling packers to partially offset the impact of having fewer cattle to process than a year ago, as carcasses are yielding about 4% more product year over year,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current recently, ERS left projected beef production for this year basically unchanged, compared to the previous month at 26.6 billion pounds, as heavier expected dressed weights mostly offset lower anticipated slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 25.4 billion pounds was 245 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate.

Next year’s total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.6%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures softened Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction and perhaps with some profit taking. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.52 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $320.52/cwt. Select was 61¢ lower at $304.21/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher with likely technical correction. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed were 10¢ to 16¢ higher in the front two contracts and then marginally higher through new-crop.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed but to the upside Tuesday with continued support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.05 to $1.06 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left projected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) unchanged, compared to the previous month, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, except for $1 lower in the second and fourth quarters. Average prices are forecast to be $254/cwt. in the second quarter, and $263 in the third and fourth quarters. The annual average price estimate was reduced 50¢ to $254.96. Next year’s annual average price was projected at $258.50 with the first-quarter price at $247.

“Demand for feeder cattle remains steady, supported in part by improved forage and pasture conditions from a year ago across most of the country,” say ERS analysts. “This has enabled cattle to go on grass rather than into

feedlots, particularly as feedlots are limiting placements in response to high feeder prices.”

As reported in Cattle Current last week, ERS raised the expected average five-area direct fed steer price for most of the remainder of the year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, prices were projected $2 higher in the second quarter at $186/cwt. and $1 higher in the third quarter at $183, but $1 lower in the fourth quarter at $186. The forecast annual price for this year increased 50¢ to $184.01. ERS also raised the expected first-quarter price and the 2025 annual average price by $1 to $186 and $189, respectively.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $5-$8 higher in Nebraska at $195-$198 and mainly $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193-$195. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.63 higher at $192.55. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.76 higher at $305.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ higher Monday afternoon at $320.47/cwt. Select was $1.01 higher at $304.82/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday with likely profit taking following the previous session’s surge.

Turning to row crops, Grain and soybean futures dropped Monday with an improved weather outlook. Heading into the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower, while Kansas City Wheat futures and Soybean futures were mostly 15¢ to 21¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Monday, bolstered by tech stocks and apparent optimism about the prospects of a rate cut this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 168 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.23 to $2.17 higher through the front six contracts.

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Record and near-record high U.S. beef cattle prices are encouraging more live imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the relatively small numbers do not shift domestic price trends, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The U.S. cattle industry is nearly five times the size of the Mexican cattle industry and nearly eight times the size of the Canadian industry,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “Changes in trade will result in relatively minor market adjustments but will not change the level or trajectory of U.S. cattle prices.”

For perspective, Peel explains the U.S. comprises 75% of the North American herd, followed by Mexico at 15% and 10% in Canada.

Total annual Cattle imports to the U.S. have averaged 1.93 million head over the past decade: 1.16 million head from Mexico (60.5 percent) and 0.764 million head from Canada averaging 0.764 million head (39.5 percent), according to Peel. Imports from Mexico are mostly feeder cattle. Canada exports mostly fed cattle to the U.S. for slaughter, as well as packer cows and bulls.

Through the first four months of this year, Peel says U.S. cattle imports of 762,450 head were 17% more year over year.

On the other side of the ledger, Peel notes the U.S. exported 116,084 head to Canada and Mexico during the first four months — most going to Canada.

Cattle futures charged higher Friday, supported by the hefty rise in cash fed cattle prices. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.41 higher ($1.92 to $3.67 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.13 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on moderate demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $195-$196 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $193-$195. Some trades were as high at $197 in the latter two regions. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $305-$306. Dressed delivered prices were as high as $308 in Nebraska and $309 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 higher Friday afternoon at $319.89/cwt. Select was $4.56 higher at $303.81/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 615,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 14.4 million head was 654,000 head fewer (-4.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.1 billion pounds was 191 million pounds less (-1.6%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean future softened Friday on likely profit taking. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 21 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed  17¢ to 38¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices continued to gain on seasonal demand last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.14 higher week to week on Friday at $319.89/cwt. Select was $2.67 higher at $303.81. Choice is up $6.69 over the past two weeks.

“Both the Choice and Select beef cutout values have been methodically increasing the past few weeks as the grilling season is headed for the heart of summer,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University, in his weekly market comments.”

Griffith points out higher wholesale beef prices ultimately boost retail beef prices. So, upside potential will be etched by consumer willingness to pay more.

“Increasing retail beef prices lends itself to supporting direct to consumer beef sales as relative prices are expected to narrow,” Griffith says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Prices were $1 higher at $186/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on good demand. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $192-$195. Last week, prices were $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $301 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 71¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $318.31/cwt. Select was 32¢ higher at $299.25/cwt.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher with firmer wholesale beef prices and the outlook for higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 44¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 22¢ lower, except for an average of 30¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Grain and soybean futures firmed Thursday.

Heading toward the close, and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher, supported by a hot forecast and stronger weekly export sales. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 25¢ to 57¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Although Choice beef cutout values rallied above $300/cwt. several weeks ago, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University notes prices are a bit softer year over year.

“Somewhat counteracting the normal improved demand during the summer are the strong slaughter volumes – especially of fed heifers – and the very strong counter-seasonal fed steer and heifer slaughter weights,” Koontz says, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Fed weights were flat through March, April, and May, so now there are almost 30 more pounds of beef per animal – both steers and heifers – than last year … there is almost 5% more beef due to heavier slaughter weights.”

At the same time, beef exports continue to face challenges for a number of reasons.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending June 6 of 12,000 metric tons were 17% less than the previous week and 28% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Cattle futures drifted lower, pressured in part by the lack of firm cash direction for the week.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 42¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $317.60/cwt. Select was $1.69 lower at $298.93/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed again Wednesday, with little apparent direction taken from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 21¢ lower with likely harvest pressure. Soybean futures mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled mixed Wednesday, but were buoyed by the monthly Consumer Prices Index, which indicated slightly less inflation than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 45 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 264 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 32¢ to 42¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected average five-area direct fed steer price for most of the remainder of the year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, prices were projected $2 higher in the second quarter at $186/cwt. and $1 higher in the third quarter at $183, but $1 lower in the fourth quarter at $186. The forecast annual price for this year increased 50¢ to $184.01. ERS also raised the expected first-quarter price and the 2025 annual average price by $1 to $186 and $189, respectively.

Projected beef production for this year was basically unchanged at 26.6 billion pounds as heavier expected dressed weights mostly offset lower anticipated slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 25.4 billion pounds was 245 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate.

“The beef production forecast is raised on higher expected placements in the fourth quarter of 2024 and faster expected pace of marketings during the first half,” ERS analysts say. “In addition, dressed weights are expected to remain relatively high into 2025.”

Next year’s total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.6%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures softened Tuesday as traders awaited weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 99¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $318.21/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $300.62/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday, with likely positioning ahead of Wednesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Heading toward the close, through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices settled mixed Tuesday, with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 120 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 151 points.

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Expectations for continued historically strong domestic consumer beef demand will pave the way to record-high retail beef prices this summer as production declines, according to Rabobank’s Global Beef Quarterly for the second quarter.

RaboResearch analysts point out the U.S. all-fresh beef retail price in April was record-high at $7.95 per pound and demand was the second highest in the past three decades.

At the same time, those analysts note prices for calves, feeder cattle and fed cattle were record-high or near record-high in March. They expect calf and fed cattle prices to trend sideways through the summer, while feeder cattle prices strengthen.

Globally, Rabobank forecasts declining beef production in the U.S. and Europe will overshadow anticipated production increases in Australia and Brazil.

“The global cattle market is currently moving at two distinct paces,” according to Angus Gidley-Baird, Rabobank Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “North American markets are hovering near record highs amid the contraction in local production, while other regions are experiencing more subdued pricing. Europe finds itself in the middle ground, despite a recent uptick in production. These regional disparities are beginning to influence international trade flows, with the U.S. ramping up its import volumes and major Asian markets maintaining steady import levels.”

Cattle futures extended support from the previous session, buoyed by recently stronger wholesale beef prices and prospects of higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $190 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $301 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.42/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $301.04/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Monday, perhaps with some positioning ahead of this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jly ’25 and Soybean futures fractionally higher to 8¢ higher through near Nov. However, nearby Kansas City Wheat futures were 19¢ to 24¢ lower with likely harvest pressure.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.18 to $2.70 higher through the front six contracts on projections of summer demand exceeding supplies.

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While fed cattle beef production continues higher than anticipated due to longer feeding periods and the slower packer pace, non-fed beef production is sharply lower so far this year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Total cow slaughter is down 14.1% year over year through the first 21 weeks of the year, with dairy cow slaughter down 13.4% and beef cow slaughter down 14.8% from last year,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “Cow carcass weights are averaging 646.8 pounds, up 10 pounds over one year ago. Bull slaughter is down 7.0% year over year, with bull carcass weights up 28.7 pounds year over year and averaging 892 pounds.” 

Conversely, Peel explains fed cattle slaughter is 4.5% less year over year and fed cattle beef production is 2.0% less.

All told, Peel says total non-fed slaughter through May was down 13.6% and total non-fed beef production was down 12.0%, or 1.69 billion pounds less. He adds that non-fed beef makes up 20% of total beef production, on average. 

“Fed cattle slaughter is expected to decrease more in late 2024, though carcass weights will likely remain elevated,” Peel says. “Heifer retention may be starting, which would lead to a larger decline in heifer slaughter by the end of the year. Beef cow slaughter may also drop more sharply in the last part of the year. Herd rebuilding typically results in decreased heifer and beef cow slaughter. Moisture conditions through the summer and into the fall will be critical to determine if, and how much, herd rebuilding gets started and the impact on 2024 beef production.”

Hear more of Peel’s insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the North.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt. and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $190. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $190.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Friday afternoon at $316.75/cwt. Select was 31¢ higher at $301.14/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was up $3.55 but Select was 57¢ lower.

Total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 74,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 13.7 million head was 631,000 head fewer (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.6 billion pounds was 198.4 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Cattle futures found some footing Friday, helped along by firm wholesale beef prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts. They were an average of $1.33 lower week to week on Friday, except for 62¢ higher in spot June.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher. However, they were an average of $1.75 lower week to week on Friday.

Grain and Soybean futures weakened Friday on likely fund selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures 12¢ to 20¢ lower through near Sep and then 2¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled slightly lower Friday with pressure including a stronger than expected labor report.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little- changed at 4.0%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 14¢ to $34.91. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 87 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports in April were the largest in 10 months at 111,580 metric tons (mt), according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export value was 5% more year over year at $898.7 million, which was also the highest level since last June.

Through the first four months of 2024, beef export value increased 5% year-over-year to $3.38 billion, despite a 3% decline in volume (423,445 mt).

“Mexico continued to shine on the beef side, along with the Caribbean, Central America and the Middle East,” according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “These markets are benefiting from foodservice demand and currency advantages compared to the main Asian markets. The headwinds in Asia remain formidable, but the tourism boom in Japan has helped solidify demand and exports have stabilized this year, despite the continued weakness in the yen and strong competition from Australia. Robust retail and e-commerce demand has helped U.S. chilled beef continue to dominate in Korea and Taiwan.”

April beef export value equated to $416.87 per head of fed slaughter, down 6% from a year ago, but the January-April average was still up 5% to $410.25.

April exports of U.S. pork reached the highest volume and value since May 2021. Pork exports totaled 277,910 metric tons (mt) in April, up 14% from a year ago and the fifth largest on record. Export value climbed 18% to $778.8 million, the third highest on record.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 lower at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 higher Thursday afternoon at $316.21/cwt. Select was 7¢ lower at $300.83/cwt.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday heading into the close, pressured by the weaker outlook for cash prices this week and surge in Corn futures. Live Cattle futures were 90¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.00 lower, except for 17¢ higher in spot Jun.

Corn and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday on likely short covering.

Heading into the close, through Jly ‘25, Corn futures were 9¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed and little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 78 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.31 to $1.47 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower heading into the close Wednesday with pressure including lower wholesale beef values and a lack of cash direction for the week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.04 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.79/cwt. Select was $3.57 lower at $300.90/cwt.

Grain futures continued to unwind Wednesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday led by tech stocks. Support also came on weaker employment data, boosting hopes for interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 330 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 59¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

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Next year is likely to begin with a smaller beef cow herd, whether or not producers begin retaining heifers for expansion, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The question of when heifer retention begins is important in two respects,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “First, heifer retention will further squeeze feeder supplies and push feeder cattle prices higher. That is likely to happen later this year. Secondly, the longer it takes to start heifer retention, the longer the industry will continue to see reduced cattle inventories, smaller beef production, and high average cattle and beef price levels.”

There is no clear indication of heifer retention occurring currently. Previously, initial indications could be seen in USDA’s mid-year Cattle report. However, they recently did away with the report.

Grazing conditions across much of the country support expansion, but Peel points out numerous factors contribute to producer decisions.

“Despite improved current forage conditions, the threat of rebuilding La Niña conditions later in the year is likely tempering some production plans,” Peel says. “Moreover, while higher calf prices provide incentives to increase calf production, it’s not clear that producers are yet reacting to long term profitability prospects (to retain heifers) as much as short-term revenue from selling more calves now.”

Cattle futures tried for gains early in Tuesday’s trading session but were mainly marginally lower toward the close.

Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 15¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 16¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 28¢ lower, except for 12¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.88/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $304.47/cwt.

Grain futures continued lower again Tuesday on crop progress. Toward the close, Corn futures were 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 141 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 28 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.13 to $1.32 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment improved in May, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose 9 points from April to 108. The Current Conditions Index rose 6 points and the Index of Future Expectations climbed 11 points to 117.

Barometer analysts say rising crop prices helped buoy sentiment, as Eastern Corn Belt cash corn prices had increased 6% to 7% by mid-May, compared to the previous Ag Economy Barometer survey. Soybean prices had risen by 2% to 3%.

“The boost in the Index of Future Expectations reflects farmers’ expectation that conditions will improve, although it’s clear 2024’s financial challenges are still a concern,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

 This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from May 13-17, 2024.

Cattle futures firmed Monday with stronger wholesale beef prices after early pressure from last week’s wobbly cash fed cattle prices.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 19¢ higher, except for 62¢ lower in away Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 13¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 39¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $190 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $188-$192. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $3 lower at $301 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.

The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.18 lower at $188.91. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.68 lower at $300.81.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 higher Monday afternoon at $315.60/cwt. Select was $1.99 higher at $303.70/cwt.

Grain futures continued lower Monday as crop progress brightens.

Heading into the close, through Jly ‘25, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures 6¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 15¢ to 20¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday and well off of session lows with pressure from indications of weakness in the manufacturing sector causing concerns about domestic economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 93 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.44 to $2.88 lower through the front six contracts, pressured by news that OPEC+ plans to phase out voluntary production cuts.

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The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.18 lower at $188.91/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.68 lower at $300.81.

“It would appear the summer lull in finished cattle prices may hit the market earlier than normal and stay with the market longer than is typical,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist with the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “If this occurs then it will pull on feeder cattle and calf prices. If the market is able to trade steady, then it would be tremendous support for the rest of the market. The one positive to support finished cattle prices is the declining number of cattle in feedlots. As this number continues tightening, competition should improve.”

As beef packers slow production in an effort to support wholesale beef values, Griffith also notes the contribution of byproducts.

“The hide and offal value has been between $11 and $12/cwt. This value essentially adds these same dollars to the live animal,” Griffith explains. “In other words, if there was no value in the hide and offal, packers would have to pay $11 to $12/cwt. less for a finished animal.”

Griffith adds weekly average hide and offal values have been $1.57/cwt. less year over year for the first five months of 2024.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand up north to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $190 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $190-$192. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $3 lower at $301. Prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $302-$304.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 84¢ lower Friday afternoon at $313.20/cwt. Select was 81¢ lower at $301.71/cwt. Choice was $2.75 higher week to week on Friday. Select was 1¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the holiday-shortened week of 540,000 head was 67,000 head fewer than the previous week and 28,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 13.1 million head was 624,000 fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.1 billion pounds was 218.4 million pounds less (-1.9%).

Cattle futures continued lower Friday with pressure including steady to lower cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 lower. They were an average of $2.70 lower week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 lower, from 87¢ lower at the back to $2.67 lower at the front. Week to week, they were an average of $2.57 lower, from $1.15 lower toward the back to $3.82 lower at the front.

Grain futures continued to erode on Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Through the front six contracts, they were an average of 20¢ lower week to week.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday. Much of the support seemed tied to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index —a closely watched inflation gauge — coming in near expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 574 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 42 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 2 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Assuming no price risk management, cattle feeding returns are projected to be negative from June to the end of this year, according to the most recent Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (KFNR) from Kansas State University.

For June through December, projected net returns for steers range from -$47.99 per head in July to -$259.78 in September with feedlot cost of gain ranging between $109.91/cwt (June) to $116.34 (Dec.).

Similarly, projected net returns for fed heifers during the same period range from -$2.74 per head in July to -$176.38 in Sept. with feedlot cost of gain ranging from $119.20/cwt. (June) to $127.79 (Dec.).

Based on the KFNR, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) say, “The number of days on feed for a steer was reported at 206 days in April, which is up 25 days from 181 days in January. A year ago in April, the number of days on feed for a steer was 190. The number of days on feed for heifers increased from 178 days in January to 191 days in May, compared to 170 to 186 days during the same period last year.”

LMIC analysts add the increased number of days on feed and a decrease in average daily gain since the start of the year have resulted in more pounds of feed per pound of gain.

“Year-to-date through April, the pounds of feed per pound of gain for steers has averaged 6.8 compared to 6.4 last year while heifers have averaged 7.2 versus 6.8 last year, LMIC analysts explain,” in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Although pounds of feed per pound of gain have increased this year, feed costs have averaged $125 and $133/cwt. respectively, for steers and heifers, a decline of 15% and 16% compared to last year.”

For ADG perspective, LMIC analysts say it is less year over year and less than the five-year average through the first four months of this year. For steers, they explain steer ADG declined to 3.14 lbs. in April from 3.41 lbs. in January. For heifers, ADG declined from 3.03 lbs. in January to 2.89 pounds in April.

Cattle futures continued lower Thursday with follow-through pressure including negative outside markets, oversold conditions and perhaps some month-end profit taking.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 78¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there some early FOB live trades in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $187 in the Southern Plains, $192 in Nebraska and $190-$192 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $304 in Nebraska and $302-$304 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 42¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $314.04/cwt. Select was 4¢ lower at $302.52/cwt.

Grain futures closed lower again Thursday as traders pondered the improved planting and weather outlook.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to chop lower Thursday with continued concerns about sticky inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 330 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 31 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 183 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.10 to $1.33 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports for this year were forecast at $9.1 billion in USDA’s latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. That was $200 million more than the previous quarter’s estimate. The increase was based on slightly more volume and firm demand.

Overall U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2024 were projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast with higher exports of livestock, dairy and ethanol mostly offsetting reductions in grains and feeds, oilseeds, and horticultural products.

For broader perspective, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to rise by 3.2% in calendar year (CY) 2024, which was slightly higher than the previous forecast.

“Global economic growth continues to increase but at a slow rate, in part, due to a stagnation of global trade growth in 2023 and early 2024,” say USDA analysts. “Despite the slow progress, this steady growth marks a continued sign of resilience following the economic turmoil from 2020 through 2022. Nevertheless, several potential barriers to sustained economic growth persist including the war in Ukraine, intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, China’s economic uncertainty, and shifting weather patterns.”

U.S. GDP was forecast 0.6% higher than the previous estimate at 2.7%.

“This growth is buoyed by robust consumer spending notwithstanding factors leading to more subdued growth, such as declines in business inventories, Federal Government purchases, business investment, and investment in residential property,” say USDA analysts.

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure including negative outside markets, oversold conditions and perhaps some month-end profit taking.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.65 lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.15 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there some early FOB live trades in Nebraska at $190/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $187 in the Southern Plains, $192 in Nebraska and $190-$192 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $304 in Nebraska and $302-$304 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.50 higher Wednesday afternoon at $313.62/cwt. Select was 95¢ lower at $302.48/cwt.

Grain futures closed lower Wednesday as it appeared traders took back some weather premium.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 18¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Pressure included concerns about a second day of increase in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 411 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 99 points.

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Rural communities continue struggling for economic growth, according to Creighton University’s latest Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). It sagged below growth neutral in May for the ninth consecutive month, declining 1.6 points from April to 44.2.

Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs contributed to the decline, according Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The RMI is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Among other measures, the region’s farmland price index slumped to 47.9 from April’s 56.5.

“For the first time in more than four years, Creighton’s survey is detecting weakening farmland price growth,” Goss says. “Only 4.2% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from previous levels.”

Similarly, the farm equipment sales index for May dropped to 34.0 from 47.7 in April. 

“This is the 11th time in the past 12 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss says. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”

The latest survey also asked about banks’ interest rates on farm operating loans and farmland loans. On average, bankers reported an average interest rate of 8.6% on farm operating loans and 7.4% on farmland loans. 

Cattle futures started and ended the session higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash prices and the neutral monthly Cattle on Feed report, Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $192 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$192.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 higher at $304 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302-$304 in a light test.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.55 higher at $190.09. The average dressed delivered steer price was $4.10 higher at $303.49.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 higher Tuesday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was $1.71 higher at $303.43/cwt.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 12¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower and Soybean futures were 2¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, led by tech stocks but pressured by the broader market as treasury yields rose. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 216 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 99 points.

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Sluggish feedlot marketings continues adding to fed cattle weights.

“The latest weekly data shows steer carcass weights at 923 pounds, up 32 pounds compared to one year ago, and heifer carcass weights of 848 pounds, up 28 pounds from one year ago,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Increased carcass weights are partially offsetting reduced cattle slaughter and keeping beef production higher than otherwise. For the first 19 weeks of the year, beef production is down 2.1% year over year. Earlier forecasts called for 2024 beef production to be down nearly 5%, but those forecasts have been revised due to the heavy carcass weights.”

Although marketings for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity were 10.1% more year over year in April, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report, Peel explains daily average marketings were about the same year over year when adjusted for the two extra marketing days in 2024.

“April marketings were 15.8% of the April 1 on-feed inventory, the highest monthly rate since August 2023,” Peel says. “Nevertheless, the average marketing rate over the past 12 months remains historically low. Marketings in the first four months of this year are down 0.6% year over year.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., mainly $2 higher in Nebraska at $192 (some up to $193.50) and mostly $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $192 (some up to $193).

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 higher at mostly $304 (some up to $305). Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were mainly $300 (some up to $306).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ higher Friday afternoon at $310.45/cwt. Select was $1.64 higher at $301.72/cwt.

Estimated cattle slaughter last week of 607,000 head was 9,000 more than the previous week but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimate total cattle slaughter of 12.6 million head was 594,00 head fewer than (-4.5%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.6 billion pounds was 213.9 million pounds less (-2.0%).

Cattle futures edged mostly lower Friday ahead of the long holiday weekend and the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 13¢ lower, except for an average of 11¢ higher in the front two contracts. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $1.76 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower, except for 40¢ higher in newly minted away-May. They were an average of $1.46 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures closed higher Friday with traders maintaining a weather premium.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 184 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 52¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Depending on which estimates were consulted ahead of time, Friday’s Cattle on Feed report will likely be viewed as neutral, coming in pretty much in line with estimates.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in April, which was 102,000 head fewer (-5.8%) than the previous year.

In terms of placement weights, 33% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 50% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 17% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in April of 1.9 million head were 172,000 head more (+10.1%) year over year.

The on-feed inventory May 1 of 11.6 million head was 100,000 head fewer (-0.9%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures started stronger Thursday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices in the South, but faded to a lower close on likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and the holiday weekend.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.07 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $187/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend so far this week, there are some early FOB live sales in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $192.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.33 lower Thursday afternoon at $309.84/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $300.08/cwt.

U.S. beef export sales continue to show promise. The week ending May 16, net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 of 21,500 metric tons were 42% more than the previous week and 32% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, South Korea, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

As for row crops, grain futures added back some weather premium. Heading into the close, Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher through May ’25 and Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ‘25. However, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ’25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with pressure including inflation pessimism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 605 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 55¢ to 68¢ lower  through the front six contracts.

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Emphasizing the quality and consistency of U.S. red meat is the key to expanding the international customer base, according to speakers at the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Spring Conference in Kansas City.

Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO noted that first-quarter average beef export value of $455 per head of fed slaughter was 9% higher year over year.

“This tells me that the global consumer is willing to pay because they understand the value of U.S. beef,” Halstrom said. “We’re different. We’re higher value, higher perception. U.S. beef is not a commodity product, like a lot of our competitors. This is a key takeaway.”

Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax, echoed these sentiments in explaining how U.S. beef competes for the consumer dollar, both in the U.S. and internationally.

“The biggest change in the beef industry has been quality,” Blach said. “And we can never lose sight of that – our niche is grain-fed, high-quality beef that really nobody else can produce around the globe. Those of you who are producers in the room, you have also invested in genetics and you have gotten paid dividends for those decisions.”

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday, supported by recently stronger cash fed cattle and wholesale beef prices. The next two trading sessions appear to be wild cards as traders position ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report and the three-day weekend.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.29 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in Nebraska to slow on light demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Kansas at $187/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 85¢ lower Wednesday after noon at $312.17/cwt. Select was $1.26 lower at $299.61/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures 1¢ to 5¢ lower through May ’25. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Primary pressure appeared to be minutes from the last Fed meeting reaffirming the notion that current inflation will rein back eventual rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 31 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

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Based on feeder and stocker sales reported to the Agricultural Marketing Service, volume is about 6% less year over year for the first 19 weeks of 2024, according to Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University.

“There have been roughly 330,000 fewer feeder and stocker cattle sold at auction so far in 2024 than in the same time period of 2023,” Maples says, in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “Compared to the 5-year average (2018-2022), receipts in 2024 were down 3% (163,000 head) year to date. This dataset includes auction, direct, and video/internet sales that are reported to USDA. It does not capture all feeder and stocker cattle transactions … Thus, it’s not perfect, but comparisons over time can be informative when considering current market dynamics to previous years.” 

Maples notes the percentage of heifer sales so far this year is 43%, mirroring the same period last year.

“Information gleaned from auction receipt totals this fall will be relatively more valuable this year to understand changes in the 2024 calf crop,” Maples says. “Traditionally, the first estimate of the 2024 calf crop would be released in the mid-year USDA Cattle Inventory report. However, USDA-NASS recently announced the mid-year report would be discontinued for budget reasons. They will not be releasing 2024 calf crop estimates until the January 2025 report is released.” 

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by steady to stronger wholesale beef values.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $192/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $313.02/cwt. Select was $1.52 higher at $300.87/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ’25 on planting pressure. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower through Jly ’25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday but to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

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Heading into the monthly Cattle on Feed report, analysts expect, on average, April feedlot placements to be about 5% less year over year, April marketings to be about 10% more and the May 1 on-feed number to be approximately 1% less.

“There is a clear understanding of the coming long-term reductions in numbers and beef supplies. This week’s Cattle on Feed report will be interesting in how placements confirm this perspective,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Has the persistent dry weather and poor pasture led to more placements and less heifer holding, thereby delaying the shortfalls but exacerbating their future magnitude?”

While many cast their gaze on placements, marketings may be more telling this time. Even though there were a couple of extra days of production in April compared to last year, packers have been dialing back production to boost wholesale beef values.

Based on federally inspected (FI) fed cattle slaughter data, Koontz does not expect to see a strong April marketing number in this week’s Cattle on Feed report.

“Last month’s Cattle on Feed revealed a large number of cattle on-feed over 150 days, and there will be some reduction but not strong,” Koontz believes. “And FI steer and heifer carcass weights continue to impress. Weights have essentially held steady the last eight to nine weeks. Steers hover above 920 pounds and heifer weights are about 850 pounds. This is another 40 pounds of beef per animal given the normal seasonal decline in weights that should be observed. This is a substantial increase in beef tonnage.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday, as traders appeared to take stock after last week’s strong gains.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 17¢ higher, from 30¢ lower in near Aug.

Feeder Cattle were an average of 57¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in the back contract. Pressure included stronger Corn futures prices.

Negotiated cash fed trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300 with some up to $306.

The weighted weekly average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.60 higher at $188.54. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 higher at $299.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Monday afternoon at $312.70/cwt. Select was $1.95 higher at $299.35/cwt.

Kansas City Wheat futures rallied Monday, up 24¢ to 34¢ through Dec ’25 heading into the close on concerns about crop damage in the Ukraine and Russia, and leading Corn. Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ‘25. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 18¢ higher through Aug ’25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed Mixed Monday with tech stocks leading the positive side.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 18¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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“Conditions at the beginning of the 2024 forage growing season suggest that producers may be able to plan grazing and hay production with less restriction compared to recent years,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, in many cases, pastures and ranges still need time to recover from extended drought conditions.” He points out there is currently less drought in the U.S. than at any time in the past four years.

Nationally, 49% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Good (40%) or Excellent (9%) the week ending May 19, according to the latest weekly Crop Progress report. That was 12% more than a year earlier. On the other end of the scale, 20% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (7%), which was 9% less than a year earlier. The only key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor were New Mexico (59%) and Texas (38%).

“There is reason to be cautiously optimistic for better cattle production conditions in 2024,” Peel says. “However, the forecasted redevelopment of La Niña conditions this summer is worrisome. The seasonal forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the next three months in much of major beef cattle country. Proceed with caution.” 

As for row crops, corn planting made up some ground last week but continued to lag with 70% in the ground which was 6% less than the same time last year and 1% less than the five-year average. 40% was emerged versus 46% a year earlier and 39% for average.

Similarly, soybean planting was 9% less than a year earlier at 52% but was 3% ahead of the average. 26% of soybeans were emerged, compared to 31% a year earlier and 21% for average.

As for winter wheat, 69% was headed, compared to 58% a year earlier and 57% for average. 49% was rated as Good (42%) or Excellent (7%), compared to 31% a year earlier. 18% was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (5%) compared to 40% a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to active on good demand elsewhere, through Friday afternoon according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300. Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were mostly $295.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales in the Texas Panhandle at $186, where prices the previous week were $184.

Fed cattle prices were supported by slower packer production helping to boost wholesale beef prices. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Friday afternoon at $313.45/cwt., the highest level since March. Select was 89¢ higher at $297.40/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $18.88 higher and Select was $13.23 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.9 million head was 570,000 head fewer than the (-4.5%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.1 billion pounds was 220.6 million pounds less (-2.1%).

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, amid stronger boxed beef values and higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.21 higher, from 67¢ higher at the back to $2.02 higher at the front. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $3.92 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.03 higher. They were an average of $7.87 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 14’9¢ lower through the front six contracts.

On Friday, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through May ’25 and then 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Increased U.S. beef imports — mostly lean trim for grinding — continue enabling added value to decreasing domestic production.

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee provides illustration in his weekly market comments.

“The retail price of a chuck roast in April was $7.52 per pound, compared to $5.28 per pound for ground chuck. The $2.24 per pound difference in chuck roast and ground chuck demonstrates the importance of lean beef imports to support ground beef demand domestically, because a whole muscle cut clearly has a higher value as is compared to placing it in the grind mix. The same can be said for a round roast which had an average retail value of $6.86 per pound,” Griffith explains. “It is extremely important to note these price differences, because folks in the cattle industry are attempting to market cattle and beef products to their highest value and the ability to import lean grinding beef allows packers to market items such as the chuck and round as roasts instead of placing them in the grind mix.”

First-quarter U.S. beef imports of 1.2 billion pounds were 25% more year over year and 44% more than the five-year average, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. U.S. beef imports this year are forecast at 4.2 billion pounds. That would be a 12% increase year over year and the first time beef imports exceed 4 billion pounds, according to ERS.

“The U.S. beef trade balance is expected to show a widening deficit (imports higher than exports) in 2024 and 2025,” say ERS analysts. “With domestic beef production expected to fall about 6% in 2025, annual exports are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds, representing an 11% decrease year over year … The combination of fewer supplies available to export, higher beef prices in the United States, and increased competition from Oceania will continue to create challenges for the expansion of U.S. beef exports.”

Cattle futures extended further Thursday, buoyed by another day of higher wholesale beef prices, bullish outside markets and a positive reading of export demand.

Net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 the week ending May 9 of 15,100 metric tons were 23% more than the previous week, but 11% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, China, Taiwan, Mexico and South Korea.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.38 higher Thursday afternoon at $310.15/cwt. Select was $2.20 higher at $296.51/cwt.

Heading into the close and before settlement…

Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.40 higher, receiving added support from softer Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $186-$190/cwt. and a few dressed delivered sales at $298-$300.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Grain futures softened again Thursday.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 1¢ lower through Sep ’25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ‘25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to 76¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased this year’s expected annual average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $1, compared to the previous month’s forecast, to $255.46/cwt., in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices increased in the second quarter by $5 to $255 and by $2 in the third quarter to $263. The average fourth-quarter price was reduced $3 to $264. Price increases in the second and third quarters assume adequate forage supplies and declines in forecast corn season average prices. The 2025 feeder average steer price forecast is $259.00.

On the other side of the fence, as reported in Cattle Current Monday, ERS reduced the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Cattle futures extended gains, supported by recently resurgent wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 47¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.38 higher Wednesday afternoon at $306.77/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $294.31/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures were lower again on likely profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 7¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through May ‘25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices jumped higher Wednesday on encouraging inflation news.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 349 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 231 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 48¢ to 84¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Domestic U.S. beef demand continued to be extraordinarily resilient in the face of continued high retail prices.

“The USDA all-fresh beef retail price was at $7.89 per pound in March. A new all-time high for that month,” according to Rabobank analysts, in their April North American agribusiness review.  “The stronger price trend pushed first-quarter 2024 consumer beef demand to its second-highest level in the last 30 years.”

The Choice beef retail price in March was $8.12 per pound, which was 48 cents higher (+6.3%) year over year. During the same period, the composite broiler retail price was about 2 cents higher at $2.43 (+0.1%) and retail pork value was up about 4 cents (+0.1%) at $4.79.

More specifically, ground beef prices were 6.1% higher year over year at $5.13 per pound. Choice, boneless chuck roast was 9.4% higher at $6.73 and the Choice sirloin steak price was up 12.2% at $11.54.

Conversely, boneless chicken breast was 5.1% less at about $4.11 per pound. Boneless ham (not canned) was 1.8% less at $5.57 and bacon was fractionally lower at $6.61. Pork chop prices (all) were 2.2% higher at about $4.26.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by slower packer production which is helping lift wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.29 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Turning to row crops, heading into the close, front-month Grain futures were softer on likely profit taking and producer selling.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday as investors awaited key inflation reports this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 122 points.

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The percentage of heifers in the fed cattle mix must drop below the long-run average of just over 37% — likely 35-36% — in order for the next herd expansion to begin, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“There is no indication that is happening yet,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He explains heifer slaughter, as a percentage of fed cattle slaughter was 40% last year, as high as it has ever been. Although fractionally lower year over year, it was 40.5% in the first quarter this year.

“In most cases, the total increase in the cow herd from trough to peak is 2.2 to 2.9 million head, an increase of 5.8% to 9.4%,” Peel explains, reflecting on cattle cycles since 1975. “The corresponding increase in replacement heifers ranged from 1.1 to just over 1.2 million head in three of the four cycles. The most recent cycle, from 2014-2019, was different in that the increase in beef replacement heifers started prior to herd expansion and ended prior to the peak in herd inventory. This is likely an indication that there was pent up desire to expand that was delayed due to drought in 2011-2013.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday as traders appeared to wait for further cash direction.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 46¢ lower to an average of 22¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle closed were an average of 37¢ higher, except for 67¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and mainly steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $295.

The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was 20¢ higher at$185.94. The weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was 63¢ higher at $295.28.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.38 higher Monday afternoon at $298.95/cwt. Select was $3.01 higher at $287.18/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Monday, with follow-through support from Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and planting delays.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25.

Kansas City Wheat futures 16¢ to 25¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

Soybean were mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher through 2025. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 47 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.

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Hay stocks on farms May 1 of 21 million tons were 6.7 million tons more than the previous year (+47%), according to the latest USDA Crop Production report.

“To be fair, hay stocks on May 1, 2023, were as low as they had been since 2013. But a year-over-year increase of this magnitude is noteworthy and confirms that hay supply has continued to increase after a very challenging year in 2022,” says Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

Burdine explains the widespread drought in 2022 tightened hay supplies across most of the nation.

“Producers responded by harvesting more hay acres in 2023, resulting in a 6.3% increase in all hay production,” Burdine says. He adds hay production increased as beef cow numbers decreased, which impacted total hay needs.

Regionally, Burdine notes hay stocks were significantly higher year-over-year in the Southern Plains, fairly static in the Southeast and significantly lower in the upper Midwest.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 622,000 head was the same as a week earlier but 22,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 11.4 million head was 527,000 head less (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.6 billion pounds was 208.8 million pounds less (-2.1%) less than a year earlier.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ lower Friday afternoon at $294.57/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $284.17/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 37¢ higher but Select was $3.48 lower.

Cattle futures were mixed Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 83¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower to an average of 21¢ higher with the front months pressured by Corn futures. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.19 lower week to week on Friday.Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, supported by the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below), which were less bearish than expected.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 21¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 9¢ to 13¢ higher through May ’25, and then mostly 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ higher through Sep ’24, and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 5 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.

The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25¢ from 2023/24.

SoybeansThe 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023/24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023/24.

The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42¢ per pound, down 6¢ from 2023/24.

Wheat

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6% from 2023/24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11% above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.

The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday, on weaker boxed beef cutout values and the lack of cash direction.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 lower.

Front month Cattle futures were trending mixed early in today’s session.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from at a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to mostly inactive on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 lower Thursday afternoon at $295.39/cwt. Select was $2.49 lower at $285.76/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending May 2 of 12,300 metric tons for 2024 were down 45% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, and Canada.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with likely producer selling and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean were 9¢ to 20¢ lower through Aug ‘25.  

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Major U.S. financial indices crawled higher Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 331 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 37¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cull cow prices continue higher year over year — helped along by the ground beef market — will increase with herd expansion, says James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

“After several years of liquidation, the available supply of beef cows becomes tight, and cull cow prices increase,” Mitchell explains. “The next few years should support cull cow prices when the expansion phase of the next cattle cycle begins and fewer cull cows find their way to sale barns.”

So far this year, Mitchell says cull cow prices are averaging $1.03 per pound more (+53%) year over year. He adds that, based on research, cull cows represent 15-30% of gross revenue for producers.

“We can use several marketing and management strategies to improve the value of cull cows further,” Mitchell says. “Improving body condition score and cow health can mean more total pounds and better cull cow quality, which both impact the total value of cull cows. Price seasonality is another important consideration, with the lowest prices occurring in the fall when most producers sell cull cows.”

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday on wobbly boxed beef values and the lack of weekly cash fed cattle direction.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.18 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Wednesday afternoon at $296.67/cwt. Select was $4.09 lower at $288.25/cwt.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with likely producer selling and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 10¢ to 15¢ lower through Jly ’25. Soybean were mostly 12¢ to 21¢ lower through Mar ‘25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 172 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 29 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 31¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply in April, based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. If fell 15 points from March to 99, the lowest since June 2022.

Worries about current financial situation on farms and ranches, and anticipated financial challenges in the coming year, drove the decline. The Current Condition Index dropped by 18 points to 83, while the Future Expectations Index fell by 14 points to 106.

“Farmers’ sentiment took a significant hit in April, reflecting broader concerns about financial performance and farmland values,” explains James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Farm Financial Performance Index declined to 76 in April, which was 7 points less than the previous month and 21 points less than last fall’s peak of 97. The decline reflects producers’ increasing concerns about the upcoming year’s financial outlook, according to Ag Barometer analysts, with fewer respondents expecting better or equal performance than last year.

The April Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from April 8-12, 2024.

Cattle futures bounced back Tuesday, supported by resurgent wholesale beef values.

Toward the close and ahead of settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Wholesale beef prices continued to firm, offering hopes that the seasonal rally has begun.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $298.49/cwt. Select was $2.59 higher at $292.34/cwt.

Grain futures softened Tuesday amid likely producer selling. Heading into the close, Corn futures were narrowly mixed from fractionally lower to 3¢ lower in the front three contracts and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher through Dec ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 15¢ lower through May ‘25. However, Soybean were mostly 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher, but the NASDAQ was down 16 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 10¢ to 13¢ lower   through the front six contracts.

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Increased slaughter levels and heavier dressed weights are boosting domestic beef production, but so is trade, says David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service.

“Beef imports in the first quarter of the year totaled 1.2 billion pounds, 25% more than last year.  Exports were 6% less, or 46 million pounds, lower than last year,” Anderson explains, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets.  “Combining the increase in imports and decrease in exports means that about an additional 285 million pounds of beef were added to total beef supplies in the first quarter. That’s about 0.86 pounds of beef, per capita.”

Increased beef production has likely contributed to wholesale beef price struggles, according to Anderson.

“Only the Choice chuck and round are above a year ago. The rib and loin are below a year ago, and their weakness might suggest other problems beyond just larger supplies, especially getting close to Memorial Day,” Anderson explains. “On the positive side, this increase in beef production will be temporary. Reduced placements will begin to move the number of cattle on feed lower. If weights continue to be larger than a year ago the total number of cattle processed will decline further.”

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 27¢ higher through the front five contracts, buoyed by last week’s stronger cash trade and then unchanged to an average of 61¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.28 lower with pressure from nearby Corn contracts.

Heading into the close Monday Grain and Soybean futures continued higher as traders appeared to bet on planting progress delays in the weekly Crop Progress report (see below).

Corn futures were mostly 7¢ to 10¢ higher through near Sep.

Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 18¢ to 20¢ higher through Jly ’25.

Soybean were 21¢ to 32¢ higher through near Sep.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $184/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $294-$295 and mostly $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $295.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $1.59 higher at $185.74. The average dressed delivered steer price was 26¢ higher at $294.65.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.56 higher Monday afternoon at $298.76/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $289.75/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday, with follow-trough support from Fridays jobs report, which was weaker than expected, elevating hopes the Fed can cut interest rates sooner than later.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 176 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 192 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to 58¢ higher  through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range is starting the season off in significantly improved condition than last year, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending May 5.

Nationwide, 46% of pasture and range was rated as Good (38%) and Excellent (8%), compared to 33% a year earlier. 25% was rated Poor (15%) and Very Poor (10%) compared to 37% the same week last year.

However, corn planting lost some ground last week with 36% in the ground compared to 42% at the same time last year and 39% for the five-year average. 12% was emerged versus 10% a year earlier and 9% for average.

As for soybeans, 25% were planted, which was 5% less than the same week last year but 4% more than average. 9% of soybeans were emerged, compared to 7% a year earlier and 4% for average.

Winter wheat condition held about steady week to week and was significantly improved year over year. 50% was rated as Good (44%) or Excellent (6%), compared to 29% a year earlier. 16% were rated as Poor (11%) or Very Poor (5%) compared to 44% a year earlier. 43% of the crop was headed, compared to 34% the previous year and 32% for average.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Friday, extending gains from the previous session and supported by higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ higher., except for 12¢ lower in the spot month. They were an average of $2.39 lower week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 32¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 13¢ higher. They were an average of $5.38 lower week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the Southern Plains ranged from slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $184/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $295 and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.30 higher Friday afternoon at $294.20/cwt. Select was 33¢ lower at $287.65/cwt. However, week to week on Friday, Choice was $2.94 lower and Select was $1.07 lower.

Total estimated cattle slaughter of 619,000 head last week was 6,000 more than the previous week but 2,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.8 million head was 509,700 head fewer (-4.5%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 9.0 billion pounds was 214.1 million pounds less (-2.3%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday as traders added weather premiums.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 13¢ higher through May ’25. and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ higher through Aug ’25 and then mostly 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices surged higher Friday, buoyed by a weaker jobs report than expected, which boosted hopes about reining back inflation.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.9%, according to the Employment Situation Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings in April for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 7¢ (+0.2%) to $34.75. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 450 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 315 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 35¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Although 10% less year over year, March U.S. beef exports were the most of 2024, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). March exports totaled 102,218 metric tons (mt). Export value was $889.9 million, down 0.3% from a year ago but the highest in nine months.

March beef export value equated to $454.62 per head of fed slaughter, the highest since mid-2022.

Beef exports for the first quarter (Jan. through Mar.) totaled 311,865 mt, down 4% from the first quarter of last year. Export value increased 6% to $2.48 billion.

“Beef demand in the Caribbean was outstanding in March, and we continued to see a strong rebound in the Middle East as well as some positive signs in Korea and Japan, where the foodservice recovery is making progress,” says Dan Halstrom USMEF president and CEO. “It’s a challenging situation in terms of supply availability, but the value U.S. beef commands internationally is very encouraging – as evidenced by March export value climbing to more than $450 per head.”

U.S. pork exports of 260,430 mt in March were 0.1% more than a year earlier. Pork export value was 2% higher year over year at $740.8 million.

Cattle futures rallied back Thursday, fueled by confirmation that no traces of Bovine Influenza A virus (BIAV) were found in ground beef samples by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).

“Samples were collected at retail outlets in the states in which dairy cattle herds have tested positive for H5N1 influenza virus. The samples were analyzed by APHIS using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), to indicate whether any viral particles were present. No virus particles were found to be present,” according to the APHIS statement.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.37 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.26 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187/cwt. and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $1 higher at $294-$295.

FOB live prices in the Southern Plains last week were $182.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 64¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $292.90/cwt. Select was 9¢ lower at $287.98/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Apr. 25 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were a marketing-year high — up 48% from the previous week and up 38% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China and Mexico.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures surged higher Thursday with weather premiums tied to planting delays.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 11¢ to 12¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 22¢ to 34¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 14¢ to 19¢ higher. Weekly U.S. export sales provided added support. Net sales of 414,000 metric tons for 2023-24 were up 96% from the previous week and were 45% more than the prior four-week average.

Cattle futures tried to overcome the Bovine Influenza A virus headlines but couldn’t, taking another step lower Wednesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 lower (67¢ to $2.30 lower). 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.55 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184-$185 in Nebraska and $184-$186 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $293.54/cwt. Select was $1.88 lower at $288.07/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ‘25. Soybean were mostly 5¢ higher through Jly ‘25.  Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ‘25.

Cattle futures softened Monday, taking a break from last week’s gains and amid likely profit taking and month-end positioning.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ lower (32¢ to $1.35 lower), except for 77¢ higher in spot Apr. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 42¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., mostly $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $294-$295 in Nebraska and $294 in the western Corn Belt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.48 higher at $182.67. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.04 higher at $294.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 39¢ higher Monday afternoon at $297.53/cwt. Select was $1.49 higher at $290.21/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally lower through Mar ‘25. Soybean were 1¢ to 4¢ higher through Nov. ‘24. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by tech stocks and corporate earnings once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 146 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 55 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 48¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Assuming no further complications from Bovine Influenza A virus (BIAV) in dairy cattle, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock Marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says cattle markets should move forward based on fundamentals.

“Calf prices normally reach a seasonal peak at the end of the first quarter, so steer calf prices may not recover fully to the March highs,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “However, the strong general uptrend in cattle markets likely means calf prices may move more sideways for a period before moving higher in the later part of the year. Concern about summer grazing conditions could temper stocker demand in the next month or so.”

Peel notes heavyweight feeder cattle prices have bounced more than calf prices since BIAV applied pressure, buoyed by recovery in Feeder futures and seasonal tendencies for higher prices from now through the middle of the year.

“Despite the unexpected shocks that have impacted feeder markets, feeder prices are proving to be very resilient,” Peel says. “Feedlot demand is strong as feedlots chase limited feeder cattle supplies, spurred on by declining feedlot cost of gain.  For all feeder cattle, both calves and big feeders, the highest prices of the year are expected in the fourth quarter.”

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by stronger cash fed cattle prices to end the week, as well as weekly gains in Choice wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 56¢ higher. They were an average of $3.82 higher week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.07 higher. They were an average of $6.60 higher week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., mostly $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $294-$295 in Nebraska and $294 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ higher Friday afternoon at $297.14/cwt. Select was 94¢ lower at $288.72/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 613,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.2 million head was 505,000 head fewer (-4.7%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date beef production of 8.5 billion pounds was 229.6 million pounds less (-2.6%).

Turning to row crops, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ higher. Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mixed, fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Jan ’25 and then fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by tech stocks and positive corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 153 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 51 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 316 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 28¢ to 48¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued its final rule for Animal Disease Traceability (ADT) Friday. For interstate movement, the rule requires official ear tags for certain classes of cattle and bison be readable both visually and electronically. The final rule applies to all sexually intact cattle and bison 18 months of age or older, all dairy cattle, cattle and bison of any age used for rodeo or recreation events, and cattle or bison of any age used for shows or exhibitions.

“USDA’s final traceability rule updates the existing requirement for animal identification that has been in place since 2013, switching from solely visual tags to tags that are both electronically and visually readable for certain classes of cattle moving interstate,” explains Mark Eisele, a Wyoming rancher and president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). “Many producers are already familiar with using these visual tags and under the new rule, they will instead use electronic tags. NCBA has worked hard to secure $15 million in funding for producers to reduce the cost of implementing this change. We also remain committed to safeguarding producers’ private data and continuing to reduce the cost of ear tags for farmers and ranchers. Our industry faces a tremendous threat from the risk of a future foreign animal disease on American soil. To avoid devastating financial losses during a potential outbreak and to help producers quickly return to commerce, we need an efficient animal disease traceability system.”

APHIS is currently providing electronic ID tags at no cost to producers. Producers should contact their State Veterinarian to obtain the free tags. The rule will not take effect for six months to provide time for producers to prepare.

“Rapid traceability in a disease outbreak will not only limit how long farms are quarantined, keep more animals from getting sick, and help ranchers and farmers get back to selling their products more quickly – but will help keep our markets open,” says Michael Watson, APHIS Administrator. 

One of the most significant benefits of the rule for farmers and ranchers will be the enhanced ability of the United States to limit impacts of animal disease outbreaks to certain regions, which is the key to maintaining our foreign markets, according to APHIS. By being able to readily prove disease-free status in non-affected regions of the nation, the U.S. will be able to request foreign trading partners recognize disease-free regions or zones instead of cutting off trade for the entire country. Traceability of animals is necessary to establish these disease-free zones and facilitate reestablishment of foreign and domestic market access with minimum delay in the wake of an animal disease event.

The final rule affects 11% of the U.S. cattle herd, according to NCBA.

More information is available at the APHIS ADT page.