Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $7-$8 higher in the Southern Plains at $210/cwt. and $6-$9 higher in the North at $212-$215. Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher at $335.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday after early strength on likely week-end profit taking and positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 lower ($1.87 lower at the front to $5.05 lower at the back).

Cattle futures should find some early-week support tied to the friendly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.15 lower Friday afternoon at $325.91/cwt. Select was 28¢ higher at $309.64.

Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.64 higher and Select was $3.32 higher. Choice was up $11 over the past two weeks.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 560,000 head was 24,000 head less than the prior week and 33,000 head less than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 6.7 million head was 452,000 head less (-6.3%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.8 billion pounds was 143.3 million pounds less (-2.4%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed again Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, amid volatile trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 9¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, February placements of 1.6 million head were 336,000 head fewer (-17.7%) than the same month last year, which was 3.3% less than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 52% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

February marketings of 1.6 million head were 160,000 head fewer than the prior year (-8.9%), which was near pre-report estimates, but a touch less.

The March 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was 261,000 head fewer than a year earlier (-2.2%), which was also a touch softer than pre-report expectations.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday, supported by recently higher wholesale beef values and the increasing likelihood of higher cash fed cattle prices for the week. Through mid-morning Friday, Cattle futures were lower ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

On Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.36 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher.

There was no AMS report for negotiated cash fed cattle prices Thursday afternoon. Through mid-morning Friday, there were reports of significantly higher week-to-week bids.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher through old-crop contracts and then mostly fractionally mixed. Front months were supported by strong weekly export demand.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower through away May and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher through near Sep and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but lower Thursday, with continued pressure from tariff wonderment and economic recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 97¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, supported by surging wholesale beef values, firmer outside markets and possibly an eye toward Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Pre-report estimates are for February feedlot placements to be about 14% less year over year, February marketing to be down about 8% and the March 1 cattle on feed inventory to be down 2%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.84 higher.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.29 higher Wednesday afternoon at $329.61/cwt. Select was 55¢ lower at $308.68.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures 4¢ to 5¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, helped along by the Fed saying a couple more interest rate cuts are still on the table for this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 383 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 31¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite the anticipated year-over-year decline in cattle slaughter this year, heavier carcass weights will help push beef production close to last year’s level, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the March Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year,” ERS analysts say. They explain the increase is driven by heavier steer and heifer carcass weights, as well as the proportion fed steer and heifers in the slaughter mix.

Although the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days Feb. 1 was about 3% less year over year, based on the February Cattle on Feed report, ERS analysts expect market-ready fed cattle supplies will increase amid slower packer production and cattle spending more time on feed.

As for the percentage of steers and heifers in the slaughter mix, ERS analysts note an increase. The percentage has averaged about 79% over the last decade, but they say it rose to 81% through the first 10 weeks of this year; the first time the percentage has eclipsed 80% since 2007.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Tuesday with pressure from outside markets and wonderment about this week’s cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from unchanged to 12¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 20¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in the back contract.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.32/cwt. Select was $1.33 higher at $309.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally mixed. Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures  were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 60 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 304 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 57¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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La Niña is ending and drought is expanding, according to the latest data.

For the week ending March 11, 43.6% of the nation was experiencing some degree of drought, compared to 22.3% a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Painting with a finer brush, 7.5% of the nation was enduring extreme or exceptional drought, compared to 1.5% a year earlier.  38% of the nation’s cattle were in areas impacted by drought versus 18% a year earlier.

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s Seasonal Outlook through May indicated persistent drought and emerging drought across a wide swath of the country from the entire state of Texas and up through the Northern Plains, extending west to Nevada and down to Southern California.

In the meantime, odds favor La Niña ending and ENSO-neutral conditions emerging in the next month, according to the latest La Niña Advisory from NOAA’s National Weather Center.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, supported by last week’s bounce in cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.77 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5-$6 higher in the Southern Plains at $202-$203/cwt. and $4-$6 higher in the North at $206/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$10 higher in Nebraska at $325 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $325.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $5.02 higher at $205.30. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $8.54 higher at $324.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.89 higher Monday afternoon at $321.16/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $307.90.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures 18¢ to 19¢ higher with traders apparently adding premium. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to advance Monday in the wake of the recent selloff.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 353 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 54 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 35¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected feeder steer prices for this year for all quarters, compared to the previous month, in the March Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices were forecast at $273 in the first and second quarters, $274 in the third quarter and $279 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $274.75. Prices are basis Med. and Lg. #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

“The combination of tight supplies of feeder cattle, the recently constrained pace of cattle imports from Mexico due to protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm, and uncertainty surrounding the terms of trade for cattle imported from Canada and Mexico are creating some volatility, pushing prices higher for U.S. feeders and stocker operations to secure their cattle needs,” say ERS analysts.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered expectations for the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price in the first half of this year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, but left them unchanged for the second half, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Specifically, prices were projected $3 lower in the first quarter at $202/cwt. and $2 lower in the second quarter at $198, based on recent prices. Prices were forecast at $198 in the third quarter and at $200 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $200, which was $1 lower than the previous month’s outlook.

Forecast beef production increased by 120 million pounds (0.5%) to 26.7 billion pounds with heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. This year’s projected beef production would be 303 million pounds less (-1.1%) than last year.

Cash fed cattle prices helped lead Cattle futures higher Friday and for the week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher at $205/cwt. in a light test. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $8-$10 higher at $325. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $315-$320.

Trade in the Southern Plains was light to moderate on good demand. Although too few transactions for a trend, there were some FOB live trades at mostly $202. The previous week, prices in the region were $197.

Wholesale beef values softened on the day with Choice boxed beef cutout value $1.42 lower Friday afternoon at $318.27/cwt. Select was $1.15 lower at $306.32. Week to week, however, Choice was $3.37 higher and Select was 52¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 587,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 6.1 million head was 417,000 head fewer (-6.4%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.3 billion pounds was 123.1 million pounds less (-2.3%).

As alluded to, Cattle futures closed higher Friday, fueled by stronger cash fed cattle prices and continued feeder cattle bullishness in the country.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ higher (30¢ higher at the back to $1.12 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ higher (27¢ higher at the back to $1.75 at the front).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.32 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.76 higher.

Turning to the grain complex Friday, futures were mixed with likely profit taking and position squaring.

Corn futures were 1¢ to 8¢ lower through Dec ‘25 and then unchanged to fractionally lower. Kansas City Wheat futures 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Friday helped by chatter about a budget agreement in place to avoid a government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 674 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 117 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 551 points.

Indices were lower week to week, though, beneath the weights of tariff confusion, worries about domestic economic growth and sagging consumer confidence.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Domestic consumer beef demand continues at a strong pace, based on a recent reading of consumers’ willingness to pay for their protein of choice.

The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provides an overview in the latest Livestock Monitor, based on February retail meat prices reported by USDA.

“The price of all fresh retail beef rose by 6.2% to $8.32 per pound, retail pork prices increased by 1.6% to $4.84 per pound and retail broiler prices climbed 5.1% to $2.05 per pound,” according to LMIC analysts.

More specifically, those analysts explain prices for all uncooked ground beef reached $5.96 per lb., reflecting an 8.8% increase year over year. Beef roast prices also rose 8.8% nearly $8.00 per pound.

“Choice steak prices recorded a 7.6% increase from the previous year, reaching $8.49 per pound,” LMIC analysts say. “Choice sirloin steaks were priced at $11.90 per pound., marking an increase of 1.6%.”

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday with support from growing optimism about cash fed cattle prices this week but pressure from bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were mixed, from unchanged to an average of 22¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 48¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 60¢ lower, except for unchanged to an average of 20¢ higher in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.41 lower Thursday afternoon at $319.69/cwt. Select was 6¢ lower at $307.47

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday, helped along by stronger weekly exports.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures 13¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Thursday amid more tariff threats from the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 77 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 345 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 98¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained traction Wednesday with recently stronger wholesale beef values and prospects of higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $200/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 10¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $321.10/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $307.53

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 7¢ to 8¢ lower, pressured by concerns about Canada imposing tariffs on U.S. ethanol imports if the trade war escalates.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with support including a more friendly inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5% in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 82 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 212 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.34 to $1.45 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower (7¢ to $1.20 lower), except for 37¢ higher in away Jun with likely profit taking ahead of this week’s cash trade.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher, fueled by strong cash demand in the country.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.62 higher Tuesday afternoon at $321.20/cwt. Select was 9¢ lower at $306.86.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday amid continued tariff confusion and little impetus in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to plumb lower Tuesday with follow-through pressure and more on-again, off-again tariff confusion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 478 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 42 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 46¢ to 53¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered expectations for the five-area direct weighted fed steer price in the first half of this year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, but left them unchanged for the second half, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Specifically, prices were projected $3 lower in the first quarter at $202/cwt. and $2 lower in the second quarter at $198, based on recent prices. Prices were forecast at $198 in the third quarter and at $200 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $200, which was $1 lower than the previous month’s outlook.

Forecast beef production increased by 120 million pounds (0.5%) to 26.7 billion pounds with heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. This year’s projected beef production would be 303 million pounds less (-1.1%) than last year.

Cattle futures on Monday were mostly able to hold on to the previous session’s strong gains tied to higher cash fed cattle prices and recently stronger wholesale beef values, despite significantly lower outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in spot Apr.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 93¢ higher (27¢ higher in spot Mar to $1.60 higher at the back), except for 12¢ lower in Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., $2-$4 higher in the North at $200-$202. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at $315-$317 and $3-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt was $315-$320.

The five-area, weighted average direct FOB live steer price was $2.63 higher week to week at $200.28/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $3.51 higher at $316.43.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.68 higher Monday afternoon at $317.58/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $306.95.

Nearby Corn and Kansas City Wheat futures were higher Monday with likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 14¢ higher, also supported by domestic weather concerns. However, Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 11¢ lower with pressure including South American harvest pressure.

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Major U.S. financial indices plunged lower Monday amid whirling chatter about U.S. tariffs paving the path to domestic economic recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 890 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 155 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 727 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.14 to $1.24 lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle markets are expected to continue strong, barring major macroeconomic disruption, such as domestic recession, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

At the same time, Peel expects uncertainty and volatility driven by external forces to continue impacting cattle markets.

“Cattle prices continue to generally grind higher amid a whirlwind of political activities and rhetoric that have buffeted markets at all levels,” Peel says. “Markets have been whipsawed with on-again, off-again political announcements that create debilitating uncertainty in equity, futures and cash markets with negative impacts on producers, consumers and the complex supply chains of agricultural and food markets.”

Cattle futures rebounded Friday, fueled by the higher cash fed cattle prices in the North.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.76 higher ($1.55 higher at the back to $4.00 higher at the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.76 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $5.46 higher ($3.42 higher at the back to $7.70 higher toward the front). During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.85 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was active on good demand in Nebraska but light with moderate demand in the western Corn Belt.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., but $2-$4 higher in the North at $200-$202. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at $315-$317. The dressed delivered price in the western Corn Belt was $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.78 higher Friday afternoon at $314.90/cwt. Select was $2.29 higher at $305.80. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $3.07 higher and Select was $3.75 higher.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 578,000 head was 12,000 head more than the previous week but 6,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 5.5 million head was 410,000 head fewer (-6.9%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 4.8 billion pounds was 129.6 million less (-2.6%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through old-crop contracts and then mostly 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher, except for fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through the front three contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices gyrated across a broad range Friday but settled higher on the day. Initial pressure included softer than expected national employment.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate

changed little at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 10¢ to $35.93. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 222 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 68¢ to 77¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Exports of U.S. beef trended higher than a year ago to begin 2025, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

January beef exports reached 102,840 metric tons (mt), up 3% year over year, while value increased 5% to $804.6 million. Growth was driven in part by larger exports to China and Canada, while exports to South Korea were steady in volume but higher in value. Strong value increases were also achieved in other key markets, including Taiwan, the Caribbean, Central America and the ASEAN. Exports of beef variety meat were the largest in nearly two years, led by larger shipments to Mexico, Egypt, Canada and China/Hong Kong.

“Demand for U.S. beef came on strong in the Asian markets late last year, and that momentum largely continued in January,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The performance in Korea is especially encouraging, given the country’s political turmoil and slumping currency. It is also gratifying to see exports trending higher to China, though we are concerned about access to the market moving forward, as many U.S. beef and pork plants are awaiting word on their eligibility beyond mid-March.”

Although still strong, U.S. pork exports in January were 3% less year over year for volume and 2% less for value at $668 million.

“Duty-free access to Mexico, Canada and other free trade agreement partners has definitely underpinned global demand for U.S. red meat and delivered essential returns at every step of the supply chain,” Halstrom says. “The majority of U.S. red meat exports are to countries with which we have trade agreements. Maintaining trust and access to these markets is critical to the continued success of the U.S. industry.”

Cattle futures softened Thursday as outside markets turned more bearish and the week’s cash fed cattle trade remained unestablished.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 46¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in Kansas to mostly inactive on very light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197 in the Southern Plains and $198 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 42¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $313.12/cwt. Select was 98¢ higher at $303.51.

Grain and Soybean futures rose Thursday, supported by stronger demand and reports of delayed U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures unchanged to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 17¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices boomeranged lower Thursday with mounting confusion about U.S. tariffs on reports the Trump administration will delay tariffs until April 2 on all Mexican and Canadian imports that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 104 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 483 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 5¢ lower to 2¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Amid the confusion surrounding on-again, off-again, U.S. tariffs, the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) provides a unique perspective.

In 2024, U.S. beef and pork exports of $19.1 billion – an increase of $1 billion over 2023 and down just 2% from the 2022 record – had a significant impact on the corn and soybean industries, according to an independent study conducted by the Juday Group and released by the USMEF. The study quantified the returns that beef and pork exports brought to U.S. corn and soybean producers.

Nationally, U.S. beef and pork exports accounted for $2.24 billion in market value to corn, $525 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and $1.12 billion to soybeans in 2024.

“Domestic feed usage is critical to our industries and the continued growth in red meat exports is encouraging. A significant share of the corn and soybeans we grow locally is ultimately exported through pork and beef,” says Dave Bruntz, USMEF vice chair, who raises corn, soybeans and fed cattle in south-central Nebraska. “This study demonstrates how beef and pork exports drive value directly back to producers.”

Cattle futures gained Wednesday and continued to retrench, supported by higher outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.08 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.39 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197 in the Southern Plains and $198 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.54/cwt. Select was $1.49 lower at $302.53.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday, taking a breather from recent tariff pressure.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rallied Wednesday with chatter that the Trump administration will delay tariffs on automakers that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement established in 2020, raising hopes for other tariff concessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 485 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 64 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 267 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.39 to $1.83 lower through the front six contracts, pressured by concerns about tariff impacts on demand.

Cattle futures steadied Tuesday after initial pressure tied to new U.S. tariffs and worries about how trading partners will respond.

“We are reviewing the retaliatory measures announced by Canada and China and are watching for details on the response from Mexico,” says Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). “These three markets accounted for $8.4 billion in U.S. red meat exports last year, including nearly $4 billion to Mexico. While the United States is the primary supplier of pork and beef to Mexico, U.S. red meat has already been facing heightened competition in this critical market.”

Last year U.S. beef exports equated to more than $415 per fed steer or heifer slaughtered and pork exports equated to more than $66 per head slaughtered. These exports, a large share of which are underutilized cuts and variety meat, help producers maximize the value of every animal produced and allow U.S. consumers to enjoy more of the cuts they prefer.   

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.28 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 23¢ lower at either end of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades  $195/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197 in the Southern Plains and $198 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 92¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $314.85/cwt. Select was $1.61 higher at $304.02.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Tuesday, but off session lows, in defense against the U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices slid further Tuesday with the new U.S. tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 670 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 71 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 48¢ to 60¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment edged higher in February, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 11 points from the previous month to a reading of 152. Gains were driven primarily by the Current Conditions Index, which rose 28 points to 137, marking a significant rebound from its low of 76 in late summer and early fall 2024. In contrast, the Future Expectations Index increased 3 points to 159.

The recent upswing in sentiment reflects a combination of factors, including a sharp recovery in crop prices, expectations for disaster payments authorized by Congress and continued strength in the U.S. livestock sector, according to Ag Barometer analysts.

“While the current outlook for U.S. agriculture has improved, farmers are closely watching trade policy and the potential for a new farm bill, both of which are key factors shaping their long-term expectations,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “These ongoing policy concerns will likely play a critical role in shaping producer sentiment in the months ahead.”

Cattle futures extended losses from the previous session on Monday, and for the same reasons: long-position liquidation by funds tied to growing uncertainty tied to looming U.S. tariffs and concerns about domestic economic growth.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 74¢lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $198 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $313.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.99 lower at $197.65. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $2.20 lower at $312.92.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $313.93/cwt. Select was 36¢ higher at $302.41.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to unwind Monday with the looming threat of U.S. tariffs.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 13¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 15¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday with U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada slated to begin Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 649 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 104 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 497 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.11 to $1.46 lower through the front six contracts.

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Contracting cattle supplies pushing feeder cattle prices higher — with value increasing faster at lighter weights — clouds stocker and backgrounding opportunity, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The current market is characterized by tight feeder cattle supplies and relatively low feedlot cost of gain. The role of the stocker industry gets squeezed in this environment,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “On the one hand, high calf prices are encouraging herd rebuilding and increased calf production. In other words, the market is indicating that the highest and best use of forage is for calf production rather than forage-based stocker production. On the other hand, low feedlot cost of gain and tight feeder supplies are encouraging feedlots to place animals sooner and at lighter weights, effectively bidding them away from stocker production.”

Peel notes both influences are reflected by the wide price in feeder cattle prices, from light to heavy, which equate to a large price rollback and relatively low value of gain for stocker production.

“Stocker production will still occur, but the opportunities will be fewer and the margins will be trickier,” Peel says. “However, when heifer retention begins, feeder supplies will be further squeezed from a feedlot perspective, but many of those heifers will need a growing phase as part of their development for breeding and thus provide a stocker role.”

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with the week’s lower cash fed cattle trade, sluggish wholesale beef prices, position squaring and wariness over the impact of U.S. tariffs set to begin this week.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.58 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.45 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower (10¢ to $1.55 lower), except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 5.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at $197/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was light on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $198. The previous week, prices were $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199 to $201 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $313. The previous week, prices were $315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 65¢ higher Friday afternoon at $311.83/cwt. Select was 8¢ lower at $302.05.

Grain futures sank Friday with apparent risk-of fund selling tied to looming U.S. tariffs and more bearish economic growth expectations, in tandem with week-end and month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 28¢ lower in the front six contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 13¢ lower on Friday. Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on a late-session surge, likely tied to month-end position squaring. Before the reversal, indices continued lower with negative economic news including a lower projection of domestic economic growth.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 was -1.5% on Feb. 28, down from 2.3% on Feb. 19. The GDPNow is a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 601 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 92 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 302 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 59¢ to 65¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA raised expected fiscal year 2025 (FY25) exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy by $400 million to $39.7 billion in the latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. The increase was based on more beef and dairy exports.

Projected beef exports were raised $300 million to $9.1 billion on higher volumes and increased unit values.

U.S. agricultural exports in FY25 were projected at $170.5 billion, up $500 million from the November forecast, as higher grain and feed exports offset reductions to the oilseed outlook.

FY 2025 U.S. grain and feed exports were forecast at $37.7 billion, up $1.2 billion from the November forecast. Higher exports of corn and feeds and fodders more than offset modestly lower wheat, sorghum, and rice exports. Corn exports were forecast at $13.8 billion, up $1.4 billion from November on higher volumes and unit values.

For broader context, U.S. GDP was forecast to grow 2.7% in Calendar Year (CY 2025), an upward revision from the previous Outlook. Growth in CY25 is expected to be driven by less restrictive monetary policy and robust consumer spending associated with relatively low unemployment and growing business investment.

World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was projected to rise slightly to 3.3% in CY25.

Cattle futures gained Thursday with support from lower feed futures and the likelihood of fewer Mexican cattle imports when new tariffs begin.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to limited on very light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 lower Thursday afternoon at $311.18/cwt. Select was $1.11 lower at $302.13.

Grain futures were lower again Thursday with likely liquidation prior to the first notice day on Friday, looming U.S. tariffs and intitial domestic grain production estimates (see below).

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 14¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, driven by tech stocks and looming U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico presumably starting next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 193 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 530 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.12 to $1.50 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA projects acres planted to corn, wheat and soybeans to be 1.3 million acres more (+0.6%) year over year at 225 million acres, according to data released at the Agricultural Outlook Forum.

Corn acres were estimated at 90.4 million acres, which would be 3.4 million acres more (+3.8%) than last year.

Wheat acres were projected 900,000 acres more than last year (+1.6%) at 47.0 million acres.

Soybean acres were estimated 3.1 million acres less (-3.6%) at 84.0 million acres.

More specifically…

Corn

The 2025/26 corn crop was projected at a record 15.59 billion bushels, up about 5% from the prior year. Yield was projected at 181.0 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.

With beginning stocks down from the prior year, total corn supplies were forecast at a record 17.15 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 was forecast record high as growth in domestic use is partially offset by lower exports.

Ending stocks were projected at 1.97 billion bushels, up 425 million from a year ago, resulting in stocks relative to use at 12.9%, which if realized would be the highest since 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers was forecast 15¢ less year over year at $4.20 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supplies were forecast to rise less than 1% in 2025/26 on higher beginning stocks and a relatively small increase to production. Assuming normal weather conditions, soybean yield was forecast 1.8 bushels per acre more at 52.5 bushels per acre. However higher yield mostly would be offset by lower planted acreage.

With higher exports and crush, soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were projected 60 million bushels less year over year at 320 million bushels.

Despite lower stocks, ample global supplies will continue to pressure soybean prices. The season-average farm price was projected at $10.00 per bushel, down 10¢ from the previous marketing year.

Wheat

The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook was for higher supplies, unchanged total use, and increased ending stocks. U.S. wheat production was projected 2% less than the previous year at 1,926 million bushels on a slight reduction in harvested area and a lower yield.

Despite an expected increase in planted acres, harvested area was forecast slightly lower at 38.4 million acres, based on the 10-year average harvest-to-plant ratio. The all-wheat yield for 2025/26 was projected 2% less year over year at 50.1 bushels per acre, based on a long-term linear trend.

With supplies projected to increase more than total use, 2025/26 ending stocks were raised 4% year over year to 826 million bushels, which would be the most in five years. However, the stocks-to-use ratio of 41% is only minimally higher than 2024/25, resulting in a 2025/26 wheat season-average farm price of $5.50 per bushel, only slightly less than the previous year. Wheat prices are also expected to be supported by corn prices projected only marginally lower in 2025/26.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday with the lack of weekly cash direction in the fed cattle market.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower, except for 20¢ higher in spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in Kansas to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 lower Wednesday afternoon at $312.90/cwt. Select was 89¢ lower at $303.24.

Grain and Soybean futures were softer again Wednesday with pressure including positive crop progress and planting in South America and USDA’s first planting projections, albeit unofficial, expected during this week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures unchanged to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Wednesday. Pressure included increasing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs — from reports of another pause on those planned for Canada and Mexico and new ones aimed at the European Union.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 48 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 17¢ to 36¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Jan. 31 were 2% more than the previous month but down slightly year over year, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were up 3% from the previous month but were 11% less than a year earlier.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 3% more than the previous month but 6% less than a year earlier.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 5% from the previous month but were 6% less than a year ago.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday, helped along by stronger wholesale beef values, another day of lower Corn futures and follow-through support tied to the recent Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close on Tuesday, Live Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.98 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $314.32/cwt. Select was 16¢ higher at $304.13.

Grain and Soybean futures eased lower again Tuesday with likely month-end position squaring and wariness about any initial acreage projections USDA shares during this week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday, with pressure including another reading of gloomy consumer confidence.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” says Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 260 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.56 to $1.65 lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for February continues to paint a pessimistic picture of the rural economy, declining 4.2 points from January to a reading of 38.0 in February. It was the 17th time in the last 18 months the RMI was below growth neutral.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The economic outlook for grain farmers remained weak for 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices with only 9.3% of bankers expecting negative cash flow for ranchers in 2025.”

Farmland prices sank below growth neutral for the eighth time in the past nine months, with the region’s farmland price index falling 2 points month to month to 40.0. That was the lowest level since October 2024.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven prices for a high share of grain farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” Goss says.

Similarly, Goss notes high input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment. The farm equipment sales index in February was a weak 18.2, marking the 19th consecutive month below growth neutral.

Overall, rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by the recent Cattle on Feed report and a sharp decline in Grain futures.

Toward the close on Monday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $199/cwt., $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $199-$200 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $199-$201. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 lower at $315.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $3.27 lower at $199.64/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.40 lower at $315.12.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.96 higher Monday afternoon at $313.73/cwt. Select was $1.41 higher at $303.97.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with pressure including tariff concerns, early month-end position squaring and perhaps wariness about any initial acreage projections USDA shares during this week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial closed mixed Monday, mostly retaining and extending losses from the previous two sessions. Pressure included tech stocks and looming U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 237 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s recent Cattle on Feed report also provided an update on feedlot capacity and a summary of cattle fed and marketed by all feedlots in 2023 and 2024. Together, they paint a picture of continuing concentration.

Painting with a broad brush, 26,105 feedlots last year marketed 24.82 million head, compared to 25,103 feedlots marketing 24.84 million head the previous year. So, there were 1,002 more feedlots last year —1,000 of them representing feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, there were 10 more year over year with a capacity of 1,000 to 1,999 head, 10 fewer with a capacity of 8,000 to 15,999 head, two fewer with a capacity of 24,000 to 31,999 head and two more with a capacity of 50,000 head or more.

Feedlot capacity increased by 100,000 head year over year at the beginning of 2025 to 17.2 million head for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity.

Cattle futures firmed on Friday and closed higher week to week, despite the decline in cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ higher (7¢ to $1.57 higher), except for an average of 21¢ lower in two nearby contracts.  Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 2.20 higher week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in Kansas to light on light demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $199/cwt. and $3.00 to $3.50 lower in Nebraska at $199.50 to $200. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5-$6 lower at $315.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $203 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $320-$321.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 lower Friday afternoon at $310.77/cwt. Select was 62¢ lower at $302.56. Week to week, Choice was $3.93 lower and Select was $4.58 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 563,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 4.4 million head was 379,000 fewer (-8.0%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.8 billion pounds was 144.6 million pounds less (-3.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.  

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ’26 and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower through near Aug and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Friday, amid dimming consumer confidence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 748 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 104 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 438 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.87 to $2.08 lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral with fewer placements than expected but also fewer marketings.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.8 million head in January, which was 1.7% more year over year but 1.3% less than expected.

In terms of placement weights, 42% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 48% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 10% weighing 900 pound or more.

Marketings in January of 1.9 million head were 26,000 head more (+1.4%) year over year and 0.8% less than expected.

Cattle on feed Feb. 1 of 11.7 million head were 81,000 head fewer (-0.7%) than the same time last year. Also of note, there were 3% fewer heifers and heifer calves on feed at the beginning of the year than last year.

Cattle futures were lower Thursday with dimming cash fed cattle price  prospects, unwinding wholesale beef values, more bearish outside markets and perhaps positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report due out Friday. Ahead of the report, analysts see January placement 3% higher year over year, January marketings about 2% higher and the on-feed inventory Feb. 1 at about 99%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 65¢ lower, except for unchanged in spot Feb. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 lower, except 20¢ higher in Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to light on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few FOB live trades in Kansas at $199/cwt., and a few dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $315, but too few transactions to trend in any region.

Last week, FOB live prices were $203/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $320-$321.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.63/cwt. Select was 58¢ lower at $303.18.

Soybean futures led Corn futures higher Thursday amid chatter from the White House that a trade deal with China could get done.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ higher. Corn futures were unchanged to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by retail stocks, including Walmart.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 450 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 26 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 93 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 45¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) provide further context to the cattle inventory and beef cow herd at the beginning of this year, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“The culling rate of beef cows in 2024 was over 10% of the beef cow inventory on Jan. 1, 2024, a 2% decline from last year and the lowest since 2019,” ERS analysts explains “For additional context, the number of beef cows is down 39% from the historic peak set in 1975 of 45.712 million head and is the smallest beef cow inventory since 1961. As the number of beef heifers available for addition to the herd is correlated to the size of the beef cow herd and the previous year’s calf crop, beef heifer replacements also peaked in 1975 at 8.884 million head and have since fallen 47%.”

As for expansion potential, considering the last three cattle cycles — including the beginning of the current one — ERS analysts explain the percentage of beef heifers kept for replacements in the coming year had several years of increasing proportions year-over-year, compared to the previous year’s calf crop.

“If the same pattern holds in the future, it could be several years from now before the U.S. cattle herd expands,” ERS analysts say. “Biologically speaking, many of the offspring from heifers born in 2024 would not enter the beef cow herd until the 2027. Historically high prices for calves

likely encouraged many producers to market their heifer calves to the feeder market in 2024.”

Cattle futures basically tread in place Wednesday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were of 49¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $203/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $320-$321.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.88 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.89/cwt. Select was 5¢ higher at $303.76.

Grain and Soybean futures were softer Wednesday with likely profit taking and producer selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mixed from 4¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial edged higher again Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 22¢ to 33¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s recently released Agricultural Projections to 2034 project peak cattle prices in 2026.

The five-area direct weighted average fed steer price rises to $196.49/cwt. next year from $186.50 this year in the projections and then declines to $150.65 in 2031 before increasing again.

Similarly, projections peg the average Oklahoma City feeder steer price next year at $267.26, up from $258.75 this year and then declining to $189.80 in 2031 before rebounding.

USDA analysts expect domestic cattle supplies to respond to higher prices early in the projection period, leading to expansion. Projections see the total cattle inventory at a low this year of 86 million head and then growing to 91.8 million head in 2033. However, projections call for beef cow numbers to reach a bottom next year at 27.8 million head — slightly fewer than this year — and then expanding to 30.6 million in 2031 before receding again.

Along the way, beef production declines from 25.9 billion pounds this year to 24.8 billion pounds in 2027 and then growing to 27.9 billion pounds in 2034. Analysts note, “Projections are premised on assumptions for normal weather which support improved pasture conditions following periods of widespread drought in recent years.”

Feed costs are expected to decline or remain static during the projection period.

“Corn prices are expected to start the projection period at $3.90 per bushel, or 38.0% below the recent peak of $6.54 per bushel in 2022/23,” analysts explain. “This downward trend reverses in 2026/27 and prices climb to $4.30 per bushel during the last half of the projection period. Growth in domestic corn use of 4.9% during the projection period is driven almost entirely by the feed and residual category, spurred by expanding corn supplies and meat production growth to meet domestic and export demand for beef, pork and poultry.”

Macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the projections include U.S. real GDP growth at an annual average of 1.8%. Global GDP growth is projected to average 2.7%.

Live Cattle future firmed Tuesday while Feeder Cattle futures bounced higher.

Toward the close on Tuesday, Live Cattle futures were mixed, from unchanged to an average of 7¢ lower through the front four contracts to an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.49 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, FOB live prices were $203/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $320-$321.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 7¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $315.77/cwt. Select was $2.52 lower at $303.71.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday with likely short covering and recent demand improvement.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher with a late-session surge Tuesday, led by energy stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 81¢ to $1.11 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left the expected annual price for feeder steers unchanged at $273.75/cwt., in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. However, they raised the expected first-quarter price for Med. And Lg. #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. at Oklahoma City by $4 to $272. Expected prices were unchanged for the second quarter at $272 but declined by $2 in the third and fourth quarters to $273 and $278, respectively.

Although Oklahoma City weighted average cash prices reached a new record in January at $274.45, ERS analysts note they’ve declined about $8 since the announced resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico.

“In addition to incorporating the resumption of feeder cattle imports into the forecast, the Cattle report showed more head than previously expected outside feedlots on Jan. 1, albeit still less than a year ago,” ERS analysts say. “The increase in the cow/calf ratio was carried over into 2025 expectations, increasing prospects for a larger-than-previously-expected calf supply in 2025.”

There was no USDA report for Monday negotiated cash fed cattle trade at press time.

Last week, FOB live prices were $203/cwt., which was $3 lower in the Southern Plains, $5 lower in Nebraska and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $7-$8 lower in Nebraska at $320-$321. The previous week, dressed delivered prices were $328 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.00 higher Monday afternoon at $315.70/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $306.23.

Futures and Equity markets were closed Monday in observance of President’s Day.

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Increased beef consumption and increased beef prices underscore beef demand strength, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“The all-fresh retail beef price for January was $8.15 per pound, up 4.3% year over year. All-fresh beef retail prices have averaged 5.2% higher month over month for the last year, leading to retail all-fresh beef prices for the past 12 months at a record average level of $8.27 per pound,” Peel explains. “Per capita beef consumption in 2024 was unexpectedly higher at 59.7 pounds as a result of constant domestic beef production and larger net imports of beef.”

Similarly, Peel points out wholesale Choice beef cutout prices have averaged 11.8% more year over year for the first six weeks of 2025.

“Prices are higher for all primals with stronger prices for end meats relative to middle meats,” Peel says. “Prices for rib primals are up 9.2% year over year with loins prices up 4.6% compared to the first six weeks one year ago.  Chuck prices are 14.8% higher and round primal prices are up 22.3% year over year.”

Moreover, Peel points out all-fresh retail beef prices continue to increase relative to pork and broiler prices.

You can hear more of Peel’s market insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. In the North, trade ranged from slow on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska.

For the week, FOB live prices were $203/cwt., which was $3 lower in the Southern Plains, $5 lower in Nebraska and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $7-$8 lower in Nebraska at $320-$321. The previous week, dressed delivered prices were $328 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.70 lower Friday afternoon at $314.70/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $307.14. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.17 lower and Select was $5.76 lower.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday as wholesale beef values moved seasonally lower, cash fed cattle prices lost ground and funds likely exited more positions.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.24 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.92 lower through the front four contracts to an average of 47¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 1.72 higher.

Wheat led grain and Soybean futures higher Friday with likely short covering by funds.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 20¢ to 23¢ higher through Mar ’26 and then 13¢ to 19¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 165 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 81 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 55¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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With the die cast for tighter cattle supplies over the next couple of years, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says carcass weights represent the only supply-side risk.

“Carcass weights remain substantial, and the average steer weight was 962 pounds the peak week in January. The prior high was two weeks at 960 pounds last year. The pattern in heifer weights is the same,” Koontz explains, in a recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “It will be interesting, and important, to see the magnitude of any seasonal decline in weights through the spring … With lower corn prices and longer feeding periods then heavy weights will persist. But how heavy and what are the possible further increases? But I am doubtful there will be surprises here.”

Conversely, Koontz says the surprises will come in the margins and on the demand side.

“Packer margins have been tight for several years and there is little in the supply outlook to imply relief,” Koontz says. “The surprise will likely be reduced packing capacity sometime in the next several years. Which plants and what regions? The smallest plants in the regions with the tightest supplies. It will be interesting to see what the resiliency of the processing food system discussion transitions into. Packing capacity is overbuilt for the cattle market we will see during three to five years.”

Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday with pressure including less packer production, apparent non-commercial long liquidation and more pessimism around this week’s cash fed cattle price potential.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.29 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.68 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in the Southern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $203/cwt. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $206/cwt. in the Southern Plains $208 in Nebraska and $205-$208 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $328.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.04 lower Tuesday afternoon at $322.46/cwt. Select was $1.71 lower at $312.21.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with traders disappointed by the lack of news in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 8¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, after a back-and-forth session with traders weighing the potential domestic impact of newly announced tariffs. President Trump reinstated 25% tariffs on steel imports to the U.S. and imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. aluminum imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 93¢ to $1.03 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price for this year — especially in the first half —in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Based on recent prices and continued beef demand strength, ERS increased the forecast price by $11 in the first quarter to $205/cwt., by $6 in the second quarter to $200, by $2 in the third quarter to $198 and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $200. The projected annual average price increased by $5 to $201.

Expected beef production also increased by 775 million pounds (+3%) to 26.6 billion pounds, compared to the previous month’s estimate. This year’s projected beef production would be just 423 million pounds less (-1.6%) than last year.

In addition to the recent resumption of beef cattle imports from Mexico, ERS analysts cited the larger estimated calf crop than expected, and the smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than expected, in the recent Cattle report.

“As a result, higher placements are expected for the year and slaughteris raised, primarily in the second half of the year,” say ERS analysts.

Cattle futures rose Monday, building on the previous session’s firmer tone, following last week’s rout.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 97¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.45 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $206/cwt. in the Southern Plains $208 in Nebraska and $205-$208 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $328.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.52 lower at $207.05/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was $2.09 lower at $326.98.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 higher Monday afternoon at $323.50/cwt. Select was $1.02 higher at $313.92.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher with likely betting on bullish adjustments in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates due out Tuesday.

However, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower and Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 167 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 190 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.19 to $1.47 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Cow culling will determine herd dynamics in 2025,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “It depends both on what producers are trying to do and what Mother Nature will let them do – drought is still a large threat.”

Moreover, Peel explains heifer retention this year can set the stage for herd expansion beginning ion 2026.

“The inventory of replacement heifers suggests that there are few plans for increased heifer breeding going into 2025, but impulse heifer breeding during the year may result in additional bred heifers for 2026,” Peel says.  “As with cow culling, it will depend on what producers are trying to do and whether drought limits those plans.”

Given that the pool of bred heifers was 1.7% less year over year Jan. 1, Peel explains cow slaughter will have to decrease at least 7% year over year to hold the beef cow inventory stable.

Cattle futures stabilized Friday, following a week of losses driven by opening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle, discovery of a new bird flu train in dairy cattle, packer-announced production cuts for the coming week and lower cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ higher, except for unchanged in near Apr.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.82 lower ($3.17 lower at the back to $5.52 lower toward the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 23¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $8.04 lower ($5.87 lower toward the back to $10.82 lower in spot Mar).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.  

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $206/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $208 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $205-$208. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $328.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.11 lower Friday afternoon at $321.87/cwt. Select was $1.87 lower at $312.90.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.81 lower and Select was $4.17 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 584,000 head was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.3 million head was 304,000 head fewer (-8.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 2.8 billion pounds was 124.3 million pounds less (-4.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on likely profit taking and weekend position squaring.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. However, they closed an average of 6’4¢ higher week to week through the front six contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower on Friday.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by inflation worries tied to potential broader tariffs and stronger employment, as well as declining consumer confidence.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 17¢, to $35.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 444 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 57 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 268 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 35¢ to 39¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. beef industry is poised for another year of strong market performance, driven by tight cattle supplies and robust consumer demand, according to CattleFax analysts at the organization’s Outlook Seminar, held as part of CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas.

As the beef cowherd enters a stabilization phase following years of contraction, they say resulting supply constraints have shifted market leverage decisively in favor of cattle producers.

Kevin Good, vice president of market analysis at CattleFax, explained the U.S. beef cow herd is expected to see the cycle low to start 2025 at 28 million head, 150,000 head below last year and 3.5 million head from the 2019 cycle highs.

“We expect cow and bull slaughter to continue declining in 2025, with overall numbers down by about 300,000 head to 5.9 million head total. Feeder cattle and calf supplies outside of feedyards will also shrink by roughly 150,000 head, while cattle on feed inventories are starting the year slightly below 2024 levels at 11.9 million head,” according to Good. “With a tighter feeder cattle supply, placement pace will be more constrained, leading to a projected 700,000-head drop in commercial fed slaughter to 24.9 million. After modest growth in 2024, beef production is expected to decline by about 600 million pounds to 26.3 billion in 2025, ultimately reducing net beef supply per person by 0.8 pounds.”

Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer, forecasted the average 2025 fed steer price at $198/cwt., up $12/cwt. from 2024. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, and prices are expected to continue to trend upward. The 800-lb. steer price is expected to average $270/cwt., and the 550-lb. steer price is expected to average $340/cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $140/cwt., with bred cows at an average of $3,200/head.

“While the cyclical upswing in cattle prices is expected to persist, the industry must prepare for market volatility and potential risks,” Murphy says. “Producers are encouraged to adopt risk management strategies and closely monitor developments in trade policy, drought conditions, and consumer demand.”

As logic suggested, Cattle futures lost ground Monday, between likely technical correction, the weekend announcement from APHIS that Mexican cattle imports to the U.S. will resume this week and tariffs levied on Canada, Mexico and China, though Mexican tariffs are now postponed for a month.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.84 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $6-$7 higher in the Southern Plains at $208/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in in the North at $210. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher at $330.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 38¢ higher at $209.57/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered price was 45¢ lower at $329.07.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.31 higher Monday afternoon at $331.99/cwt. Select was $2.77 higher at $319.84.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Monday when announcement came that new Mexican tariffs were postponed for a month and perhaps some betting on a deal getting done with China.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher through Jly ‘26 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 16¢ higher through Mar ‘26 and then 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower as traders had a chance to react to the weekend’s tariff news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 122 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 235 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 7¢ to 63¢ higher through the front five contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides broader context to Friday’s Cattle inventory report, in bis weekly market comments.

For instance, the total cattle inventory of 86.7 million head Jan. 1 was down 0.6% year over year, which was 1.8% less than the recent cyclical low in 2014 and the least since 1951, according to Peel. He adds the inventory of cattle and calves has declined 8 million head (-8.5%) since the cyclical peak in 2019.

The beef cow herd Jan. 1 numbered 27.9 million head, which was 0.5% less year over year. That was 3.8% less than the previous low in 2014 and the fewest since 1961, according to Peel. He explains the beef cow herd is 3.8 million head fewer (-11.9%) since the recent peak in 2019.

Peel adds that the die is mostly cast for herd dynamics this year.

“The small inventory of beef heifers calving in 2025 (a part of the total beef replacement heifer inventory) suggests that little, if any, growth in the beef cow herd is likely. With bred heifers determined for the year, it will depend on cow culling,” Peel says. He explains, “The cow culling rate in 2024 dropped to 10.2% (from higher levels in 2021-2023), about equal to the previous twenty-year average.  Another year of sharp decrease in beef cow culling could lead to minimal herd growth but, lacking that, the cow herd could shrink a bit more this year.” 

Nationwide, calves and feeder cattle sold $3-$8/cwt. higher last week, with instances of $10-$15 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were 348,300 head reported at auction, direct and via video-internet, which was about 79,000 head more than the previous week and 3,000 head more than the same week last year.

Cattle futures bounced back Friday, buoyed by the week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and ahead of what turned out to be a generally neutral USDA Cattle report compared to expectations (see below).

Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ higher (12¢ higher at the front to $1.07 higher at the back). Week to week they were an average of 40¢ lower, except for an average of 3¢ higher in the back three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.40 higher. They were an average of 70¢ lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.  

For the week, FOB live prices were $6-$7 higher in the Southern Plains at $208/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $210, where dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher at $330.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $210-$212 in the western Corn belt, where dressed delivered prices were $330.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ higher Friday afternoon at $327.68/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $317.07. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 24¢ lower but Select was 78¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 600,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 2.7 million head was 266,000 head fewer (-9%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 2.3 billion pounds was 116.4 million pounds less (-4.7%).

Turning to the grain complex, grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday with week-end and month-end squaring and likely positioning ahead of the looming tariffs announced Saturday (see below).

Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower through May ’26 and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower.  

Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with trepidation over the U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 54 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 20¢ to 25¢ lower through the front five contracts.

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All cattle and calves in the United States Jan. 1 numbered 86.7 million head, according to USDA’s Cattle report. That was 492,200 head fewer (-0.6%) year over year.

There were 27.9 million beef cows, which were 149,500 head fewer (-0.5%). Beef replacement heifers of 4.7 million head were 45,900 head fewer (-0.1%).

Cattle grazing small grain pastures in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas number 1.6 million head, which was 35,000 fewer (-2.2%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures continued to correct lower Thursday, as wholesale beef prices continued lower and despite hefty gains in Southern Plains fed cattle prices. Keep in mind, the much-anticipated USDA Cattle inventory report will be released Friday afternoon.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.46 lower, except for $1.35 higher in expiring Jan.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on very good demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, with FOB live prices $6-$7 higher at $208/cwt., with a few up to $209 in Kansas.

Trade was slow on moderate demand in the North, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $330 and a few FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $210.

Last week, FOB live prices were $210-$212 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $328-$330 in Nebraska and $330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.06 lower Thursday afternoon at $327.48/cwt. Select was $4.77 lower at $315.90.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely profit taking ahead of President Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada this Saturday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 16¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday in a turbulent session amid mixed corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 168 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 49 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 46¢ to 56¢ higher through the front five contracts.

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking, pressure from softer Choice boxed beef cutout values and the bounce in Corn futures.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.90 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.03 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $201-$202/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $210-$212 in Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $328-$330 in Nebraska and $330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.91 lower Wednesday afternoon at $330.54/cwt. Select was $1.29 lower at $320.67.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher with South American weather premium, likely short covering, and despite looming potential Trump tariffs. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 17¢ to 18¢ higher. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 15¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday in the wake of the Fed decision to pause interest rate cuts for now.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 136 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 101 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 38¢ to 78¢ lower through the front five contracts.

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Slaughter cow prices are beginning their seasonal ascent, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

“Some of the largest price advances on this class of animal will occur the next couple of months, but the price of slaughter cows will continue to grind higher into June and July,” Griffith says. “It is difficult to determine at this point if prices can move even higher in late summer, but slaughter cow prices will certainly remain strong through the latter portion of the summer months.”

As for calf prices, Griffith notes the relationship between steers and heifers bears watching, keeping heifer quality in mind.

“The price gap between the higher-quality heifers and steers will narrow if cattle producers decide to start rebuilding the cattle herd,” Griffith says. “If one is simply observing weekly weighted average prices, then heifers may be discounted more relative to steers when heifer retention takes place. This would occur because cow-calf producers are keeping a larger percentage of their best heifers, which means the quality of heifers being sold through the auction market may decline.”

Last week’s upward momentum in cash prices and stubbornly strong Choice boxed beef prices helped support gains in Cattle futures Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.39 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.98 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $201-$202/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $210-$212 in Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $328-$330 in Nebraska and $330 in the western Corn Belt. 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.37 higher Tuesday afternoon at $332.45/cwt. Select was $1.41 higher at $321.96.

Grain and Soybean futures see-sawed back to positive Tuesday, as traders parse South American weather, the threat of Trump tariffs and all of the rest.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with a recovery bounce from the previous session’s pressure on artificial intelligence companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 136 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 391 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 6¢ to 77¢ higher through the front five contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Dec. 31 were 4% more than the previous month but 5% less than the same time last year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were up 2% month to month but down 6% year over year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 3% more than the previous month but 5% less than last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 1% month to month but down 8% year over year.

Last week’s hefty cash prices helped Live Cattle futures mostly gain Monday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 80¢ higher, except for an average of 9¢ lower in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 90¢ lower, except for 70¢ higher in waning spot Jan.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $201-$202/cwt., $7-$8 higher in Nebraska at $210-$212/cwt. and $6-$7 higher in the Western Corn Belt at $210-$212. Dressed delivered prices were $6-$8 higher in Nebraska at $328-$330 and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $330.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $5.52 higher at $209.19/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $7.74 higher at $329.72.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 higher Monday afternoon at $330.08/cwt. Select was $4.26 higher at $320.55.

Grain and Soybean futures eased lower Monday with pressure including growing concern about President Trump’s recent promise to increase tariffs Feb. 1.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with primary pressure on artificial intelligence companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 289 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 88 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 612 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.38 to $1.55 lower through the front six contracts.

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Even though total feedlot placements were about 1.6% less last year than in 2023, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out feedlots were able to hold monthly average inventories close to par by feeding cattle longer.

“With the slower turnover rate in place, feedlots will likely see inventories fall in 2025 with declining placements,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “Days on feed in feedlots will likely remain large but are unlikely to continue increasing enough to hold feedlot inventories, as tight feeder supplies become more apparent.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $7 higher in Nebraska at $210-$212/cwt. and $6-$7 higher in the Western Corn Belt at $210-$212. Dressed delivered prices were $6-$8 higher In Nebraska at $328-$330 (a few up to $339) and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $330 (a few up to $338).

Trade in the Southern Plains was mostly inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend. For the week FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $201. The previous week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $201.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.04 lower Friday afternoon at $327.92/cwt. Select was 92¢ lower at $316.29. Week to week, Choice was $5.77 lower and Select was $3.54 lower.

Sharply higher cash fed cattle prices helped Cattle futures continue their upward trend on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.12 higher ($1.15 to $3.00 higher). Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 higher (10¢ higher to $3.67 higher in spot Feb).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.02 higher across a broad range and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.29 higher across a broad range.

Corn and Soybean futures retreated Friday on likely profit taking and Argentina’s reduction in export taxes for domestic producers.

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Jly ’26 and then 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower through near Aug and then mostly 3¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢-11¢ lower through May ’26.  

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 Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with likely profit taking from the week’s strong gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 99 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ higher to 21¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected and total cattle on feed coming in on the lighter side of expectations.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.64 million head in December, which was 3.3% less year over year and 5.1% less than average pre-report expectations.

In term of placement weights, 47% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 40% weighing 700-899 pounds and 13% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in December of 1.74 million head l% more than the same time last year and 0.3% less than expectations.

Cattle on feed Jan. 1 of 11.8 million head were 107,000 head fewer year over year (-0.9%), which was 0.8% less than expectations.

Although 3% less year over year, heifers and heifer calves accounted for 39% of the on-feed inventory.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday on bullish fundamentals and stronger outside markets.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady in Kansas at $201/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $201 in the Texas Panhandle, $203-$205 in Nebraska and $203-$206 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $322 in Nebraska and $320-$322 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.06 lower Thursday afternoon at $330.96/cwt. Select was 78¢ lower at $317.21.

Traders added some South American weather premium back into Corn and Soybean futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, supported by President Trump’s call for lower interest rates and lower oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 44 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to $1.16 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures powered ahead Wednesday with little apparent explanation other than exuberant fund-buying and perhaps bullish positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Pre-report estimates peg the Jan. 1 feedlot inventory 0.2% lower year over year, December placements 1.8% higher and December marketings 1.3% higher.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.75 higher ($3.00 to $6.40 higher). Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.23 higher ($1.87 to $3.02 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand to mostly inactive on moderate demand through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with too few transactions to trend. Some early FOB live trade was noted in the Texas Panhandle at $202.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady in Kansas at $201/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $201 in the Texas Panhandle, $203-$205 in Nebraska and $203-$206 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices $322 in Nebraska and $320-$322 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 3¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $332.02/cwt. Select was $1.56 lower at $317.99.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 10¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday, buoyed by strong corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 37 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 252 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 43¢ lower to 2¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were pressured by stronger Corn futures, worries about cold-damaged winter wheat pasture in the Southern Plains and perhaps growing hesitancy related to the ultimate opening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle. Toward the close, they were down an average of $1.63 lower, except for 85¢ higher in spot Jan.

Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash trade. They were an average of 35¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 6¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $201/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand

Last week, FOB live prices were $201 in the Texas Panhandle, $203-$205 in Nebraska and $203-$206 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices $322 in Nebraska and $320-$322 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.11 lower Tuesday afternoon at $332.05/cwt. Select was 11¢ higher at $319.55.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, helped along by the drier South American weather outlook and more optimism regarding tariffs.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher.  Soybean futures were 24¢ to 33¢ higher.

Wheat futures gained on prospects of freeze damage in the Southern Plains. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were 25¢ to 26¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with investors perceiving a softer tone on tariffs by the new administration.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 40¢ to $1.79 lower  through the front six contracts.

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Total U.S. cattle inventory at the bottom of the last cattle cycle was a little more 88 million head and beef production was just over 24 billion pounds, according to Rob Ziegler, Extension specialist the University of Wyoming. He points out the total inventory last year numbered a little more than 87 million head at the beginning of the year and beef production neared 27 billion pounds, so about 3 billion more pounds with 1 million fewer head.

Spun another way, using information compiled the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), Ziegler explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, pounds of beef produced per cow increased by about 5.8 pounds each year from 1999 through 2024.

“Cheap feed grains, favorable weather conditions and strong values helped support carcass weights and overall beef production in 2024,” Ziegler explains. “Additional pounds of beef produced per cow over time is also likely an indication of how technologies improved the efficiency of beef production.”

Bottom line, along with considering this year’s beginning cattle inventory, Ziegler reminds to also keep in mind the impact of total beef production on the market.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201, unevenly steady in Nebraska at $203-$205 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $203-$206. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $322 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $320-$322.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Monday afternoon at $333.16/cwt. Select was 39¢ lower at $319.44.

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“Cattle and beef markets rocketed out of the gate coming into 2025,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “With no post-holiday wavering, all cattle and beef markets moved higher in the first half of January – setting new record price levels to start the new year. This continues the trend of the last three years. Cattle prices began to move higher after 2021 and increased more sharply in 2023-2024.”

Peel notes the 5-area direct average live fed steer price was $203.56/cwt. for the week ending Jan. 17. That was 17.3% more year over year and 85.9% more than in January 2021.

Similarly, the weekly Choice boxed beef price for mid-January was $333.51/cwt., according to Peel. That was 17.7% mor than the prior year and up 58.2% over 2021 levels. 

Closer to home, steers weighing 600-700 lbs. averaged $320.81/cwt. in the North Central region the week ending Jan. 13, according to USDA’s National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary. That was $56.58/cwt. higher year over year. Same-weight steers the same week were $54.54 higher (+22.7%) in the South Central region at $294.72 and $48.92 higher in the Southeast (+21.2%) at $279.68

“The strong cattle and beef price trend coming into 2025 is expected to continue as cattle inventories and beef supplies tighten further in the coming months,” Peel says. “However, while cattle and beef markets are very strong internally, external shocks from political uncertainty, along with U.S. and global macroeconomic jitters may cause short-term shocks and short-lived market setbacks. Volatility is likely to accompany a bullish market expectation.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to light to moderate on light to moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201, unevenly steady in Nebraska at $203-$205 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $203-$206. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $322 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $320-$322.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ higher Friday afternoon at $333.69/cwt. Select was 45¢ higher at $319.83. Week to week, Choice was 85¢ higher and Select was $5.69 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 603,000 head, which was 14,000 head more than the previous week but 2,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 1.5 million head was 219,000 head fewer (-12.9%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 1.3 billion pounds was 138.2 million pounds less (-9.7%).

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, perhaps with some positioning on the long weekend.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the front two contracts. Live Cattle futures closed from an average of 29¢ lower in six contracts to an average of 15¢ higher.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 lower, except for $1.15 higher in spot Jan. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.56 lower

Corn and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher through old-crop contracts on tighter stocks relative to demand, then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Week to week, they were an average of 12’4¢ higher through old-crop contracts; up an average of 33¢ over the past two weeks.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower on Friday. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ higher through near Aug, and then 1¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday with the week’s tamer inflation readings and positive early quarterly corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 334 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 291 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 20¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Fresh beef prices increased fractionally month to month in December but were about 2% less than the record highs in September, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“The All-Fresh average beef price for December was $8.078 per pound, according to USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS),” say LMIC analysts in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “This compares to $4.883 for average pork prices and $2.434 for chicken.”

All-Fresh beef price averaged $8.01 last year, up from $7.60 in 2023, according to LMIC. Pork prices averaged $4.87 in 2024 compared to $4.81 in 2023. Chicken prices in 2024 averaged $2.43, a slight decline from $2.46 in 2023.

“Ground beef prices were little changed during the last three months of the year, averaging $5.875 for the quarter and the December average at $5.863,” LMIC analysts explain. “Ground beef prices peaked for the year in September at $5.917. In December 2023, ground beef prices averaged $5.566.”

For perspective, steak prices averaged $10.626 per pound in December, down from $10.646 a year earlier.

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, with likely profit taking, technical resistance and perhaps reaction to chatter about when cattle imports from Mexico might resume.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with FOB live prices unevenly steady at $202-$205/cwt. and dressed delivered prices $2 higher at $322.

Trade was light to moderate on moderate to good demand in the western Corn Belt with FOB live prices steady to $3 higher at $203-$205. Dressed delivered prices last week were $320.

In the Southern Plains, trade was light on light demand with too few transactions to trend. For the week, dressed delivered prices are $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201 and steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $333.41/cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $319.38.

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, with likely profit taking, technical resistance and perhaps reaction to chatter about when cattle imports from Mexico might resume.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.36 lower.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 19¢ to 22¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 172 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 79¢ to $1.36 lower.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased forecast feeder steer prices for most of this year, in the January Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Compared to the previous month, ERS projected the average feeder steer price $3 higher in the first quarter at $268/cwt. and $2 in the second quarter at $272. The third-quarter projection was unchanged at $275. The forecast annual average price increased $1.25 to $273.25. Prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City.

As in the previous report, price projections assume the ongoing suspension of cattle imports from Mexico, since no date has been established for resumed trade.

ERS analysts explain, cattle have not been imported from Mexico since Nov. 22, which has limited feeder cattle typically available to feedlots in the Southern Plains. They say These feedlots are likely drawing down on supplies from other U.S. areas, boosting feeder calf prices.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $6 in the first quarter to $194/cwt., $5 in the second quarter to $194, $4 in the third quarter to $196, and by $5 for an annual average price of $196. Increase optimism stemmed from recent prices and continued strong beef demand.

“Wholesale beef prices finished 2024 on a strong note, carrying record beef prices into 2025,” ERS analysts say, explaining, “The strength of this wholesale beef price trend likely helped support record slaughter cattle prices through the holiday season.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon with FOB live prices $1 higher at $201/cwt. in a light test, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201 on moderate trade and demand.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $203 in Nebraska and $200-$205 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $320.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.16 higher Wednesday afternoon at $334.14/cwt. Select was 67¢ lower at $318.04.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with help from more optimistic outside markets and the prospects of at least steady cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher.

Corn and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday with another inflation reading that came in slightly less than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index increased 2.9% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.

However, the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in December, after increasing 0.3% in each of the previous four months.

A day earlier, the Producer Price Index for final demand — a measure of wholesale price inflation — was also lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 703 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 107 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 466 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.57 to $3.01 higher through the front six contracts, supported by declining week-to-week domestic supplies and increased perceived supply risk.

Cattle futures consolidated Tuesday awaiting this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher across a broad range. Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ lower across a broad range.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade mostly inactive on very light demand in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were 200/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $200-$201 in Kansas, $203 in Nebraska and $200-$203 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $320.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $332.98/cwt. Select was $1.14 higher at $318.71.

Corn and Soybean futures softened Tuesday with likely profit taking in the wake of the recent surge higher.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower, except for 3¢ higher in expiring Jan.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday. Positive economic news included a tamer inflation reading than expected for wholesale prices. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% in December, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 221 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 43 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 10¢ higher to 82¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower Monday on likely profit taking and positioning following last week’s charge higher.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.42 lower. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade mostly inactive on very light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at 200/cwt., $4 higher in Kansas at $200-$201, $3 higher in Nebraska at $203 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200-$203. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $320.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $3.65 higher at $202.58/cwt. The weighted five-area average dressed delivered steer price was $5.29 higher at $320.25.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 51¢ higher Monday afternoon at $333.35/cwt. Select was $3.43 higher at $317.57.

Corn and Soybean futures continued higher Monday with follow-through support from Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, dragging Wheat along.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 9¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 30¢ higher

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, as investors awaited inflation reading this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 358 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 75 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 30¢ lower to $2.21 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA provides some annual perspective with year-over-year five-area direct weighted average negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Compared to 2023, the five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $11.11 higher at $187.25/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $17.91 more at $295.86.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed heifer price was $11.31 higher at $186.38/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed heifer price was $18.24 more at $295.69.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the Southern Plains and Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade in the western Corn Belt was limited on light demand.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Southern Plains at 200-201/cwt., $3 higher in Nebraska at $203 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200-$203. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $320.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.06 higher Friday afternoon at $332.84/cwt. Select was $5.79 higher at $314.14.

Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.60 higher and Select was $17.42 higher.

Estimated beef production so far this year illustrates the slower year-over-year production pace, down 161.7 million pounds (-17.6%) compared to the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 870,000 head was 217,000 head fewer (-20%).

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher (75¢ higher at the back to $3.12 higher at the front). Week to week, they were an average of $6.07 higher ($5.22 to $7.52 higher). 

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ higher Friday (27¢ to $1.37 higher). Week to week, they were an average of $3.39 higher ($2.37 higher at the back to $4.27 higher in spot Feb).

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures bounced higher with help from cuts to yield and. Ending stocks in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 14¢ to 15¢ higher in old-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Week to week, they were an average of 20’6¢ higher through old-crop contracts.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 26¢ higher through Jan ’26 and then 8¢ to 13¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by bullish employment numbers, which cast a pall over potential interest rate cuts.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than expected. The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10¢ (0.3%) in December. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 696 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 91 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 317 points.

Crude oil futures surged on chatter about potential U.S. sanctions aimed at Russian oil carriers.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.66 to $2.65 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $6 in the first quarter to $194/cwt., $5 in the second quarter to $194, $4 in the third quarter to $196, and by $5 for an annual average price of $196. Increased optimism stemmed from recent prices and continued strong beef demand.

Projected beef production this year of 25.8 billion pounds would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.4%) than last year’s estimated production.

Cattle futures took a step higher Thursday, helped along by the prospects of higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.26 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.96 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

However, there were reports of $200 live cash prices in the Southern Plains and more up North.

Last week, FOB live prices were $196-$197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200 in Nebraska and the western Corn. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.17 higher Thursday afternoon at $330.78/cwt. Select was $1.46 higher at $308.35.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday between South American weather and positioning ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Grain Stocks report due out Friday.

Before settlement, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Stock markets were closed Thursday, in observance of the National Day of Mourning for former president, Jimmy Carter.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 97¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports made strong gains in November, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

November beef exports increased 10% year-over-year to 109,288 metric tons (mt), while value climbed 11% to $872.7 million. Export value per head of fed slaughter equated to $428.70 in November, up 13% from a year ago and the highest since June.

For January through November, beef exports increased 5% in value ($9.56 billion) from the same period in 2023, despite a 1% decline in volume (1.18 million mt).

“Despite continued economic headwinds in Asia, November demand for U.S. beef strengthened in South Korea, China and Taiwan, and exports were fairly steady to Japan,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The strong performance in Mexico and outstanding demand for variety meat in Egypt were also critical for bolstering carcass value.”

November beef exports also increased substantially year-over-year to the Caribbean, ASEAN and Central America.

Pork exports totaled 272,141 mt in November, up 5% from a year ago, while export value increased 6% to just under $783 million.

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday on likely profit taking and the absence of weekly cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.38 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 lower.

 Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $196-$197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200 in Nebraska and the western Corn. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.82 higher Wednesday afternoon at $328.61/cwt. Select was $1.46 higher at $306.89.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with pressure from the higher U.S. dollar and perhaps some positioning ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Grain Stocks report due out this Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday. Negative news included release of the FOMC minutes from their December meeting, which cast a shadow on future interest rate cuts.

“… With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2%, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated …” according to the minutes. “… In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing …”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 75¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Strong fundamentals and increasing open interest helped lift Cattle futures Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $196-$197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200 in Nebraska and the western Corn. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.31 lower Tuesday afternoon at $325.79/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $305.43.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Tuesday with traders keeping in mind the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Grain Stocks report due out this Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mainly unchanged. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by rising Treasury yields, strengthened in part by stronger than expected growth in the service sector that many viewed as a drag to potential interest rate cuts this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 178 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 66 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 375 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 49¢ to 75¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment drifted lower month to month in December, declining 9 points to an overall reading of 136, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Producers’ perception of current conditions drove the decline with the Index of Current Conditions dropping 9 points to 136, which was still 24 points above the low in September. The Index of Future Expectations fell 8 points to 153, remaining 59 points above its September low.

“While sentiment dipped this month, it’s clear that much of the postelection optimism about future conditions is still holding strong,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers’ optimism about the future seems to stem largely from their expectations for a more favorable policy environment over the next five years.”

International agricultural trade remains an ongoing concern for U.S. producers. In December, 43% of survey respondents chose trade policy as the most important policy for their operation in the upcoming five years.

Moreover, the November and December barometer surveys asked producers about the likelihood of a trade war that could negatively affect U.S. agricultural exports. In December, 48% of producers said they believe a trade war that harms agricultural exports is either likely (32%) or very likely (16%), an increase from 42% in November. Conversely, only 21% of respondents in December viewed a trade war as either unlikely (17%) or very unlikely (4%), down from 26% in November.

This month’s survey was conducted from Dec. 2-6, 2024.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday on bullish fundamentals, following the previous session’s profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.82 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $200 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200. Dressed delivered prices were $8 higher at $315.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price was $4.12 higher at $198.93. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $7.91 higher at $314.96.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 higher Monday afternoon at $327.10/cwt. Select was $6.61 higher at $303.33.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by South American weather expectations.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with tech stocks providing the most support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 243 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 20¢ to 49¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Whether or not heifer retention begins this year, Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says cattle prices should remain elevated for two to four more years.

Peel offers a couple of potential scenarios in his weekly market comments.

If heifer retention begins this year, Peel explains tighter feeder cattle supplies will push cattle prices and cow-calf returns higher. Retained heifer calves would lead to increased heifer inventories in 2026 and potential beef cow herd growth in 2027.

Conversely, if heifer retention fails to begin in 2025, Peel explains, “The cow herd will continue to dwindle, and cattle supplies will continue to slowly contract with higher cattle prices and a smaller industry until herd rebuilding begins.”

As it is, Peel notes the beef cow herd likely contracted last year, while limited supplies of replacement heifers suggest further contraction or stabilization at best in 2025.

“Historically, herd expansions require a year or two to gain momentum before herd inventories begin to increase. That process has not begun,” Peel says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active to moderate on very good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade in the Southern Plains was light on good demand.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $197/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $200 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200. Dressed delivered prices were $8 higher at $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.76 higher Friday afternoon at $325.24/cwt. Select was $2.49 higher at $296.72.

Based on the last full week of December, estimated total cattle slaughter in 2024 was about 1.2 million head less (-3.7%) year over year, while estimated beef production was 169.1 million pounds less (-0.6%).

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.32 lower.  Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 lower, except for 45¢ higher in spot Feb.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.32 higher (32¢ to $3.62 higher) except for 70¢ lower in the back contract. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.57 higher through the front three contracts and then an average of 37¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 5¢ lower with some likely producer selling.  

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 13¢ lower through Jly ’26, pressured by poor exports and positive domestic production conditions. Net U.S. weekly export sales for the week ending Dec. 26 were down 77% from the previous week — a marketing year lower — and 68% less than the prior four-week period.

Soybean futures closed mostly 16¢ to 21¢ lower, also pressured by anemic export sales — down 51% from the prior week and down 67% from the previous four-week average.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 339 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 73 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 340 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 55¢ to 83¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Hay prices near the end of 2024 were the cheapest in about four years, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.

Since the beginning of the 2023-24 crop year, LMIC analysts explain national alfalfa hay prices declined $123 per ton from $288 in April 2023 to $165 in November last year. LMIC forecasts the 2024-25 alfalfa hay price to range from $170-$180 per ton.

Similarly, other hay prices declined by $89 per ton from $248 in Oct. 2022 to $159 in November last year. LMIC forecasts the 2024-25 other hay price at around $150 per ton.

“The January Crop Production report from USDA NASS will detail the December 1 hay stocks at the state level. This will be a key piece of information providing further insights into the available hay supplies moving into 2025, which could influence hay prices,” say LMIC analysts. “Drought will be another factor influencing hay prices and production. The most recent estimate from USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) states, ‘… approximately 46% of alfalfa hay acreage is within an area experiencing drought.’”

Cattle futures rose Thursday, led by cash.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.41 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher, except for $1.22 lower in newly minted away Jun. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on good demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher at $196/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on good demand with too few transactions to trend.

FOB live prices last week were $192-$193/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $196-$197 in Nebraska and $195-$197 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $307.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 24¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $323.48/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $294.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 151 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 30 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, helped along by expectations of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.78 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ higher, except for 22¢ lower in expiring Dec. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $192-$193/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $196-$197 in Nebraska and $195-$197 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $307.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 lower Tuesday afternoon at $324.22/cwt. Select was 24¢ lower at $294.52.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Tuesday with traders apparently adding South American weather risk premium as they squared year-end positions.

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 19¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 29 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 25 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 175 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 66¢ to 73¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Although nominal feeder cattle prices reached record highs in 2024, Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, notes that producer revenues, when adjusted for inflation, remained below those of previous record high prices in 2014-15. In other words, he says prices remain below levels required to spark herd expansion.

“Year-to-date beef cow slaughter is down by 18%, but the implied cull rate — calculated as slaughter divided by inventories — remains at 10.2% for 2024, well above the level that would indicate herd expansion,” Maples explains in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “Heifer slaughter data also shows no signs of herd expansion. Year-to-date heifer slaughter is down 1.1%, with no evidence of heifer retention occurring at a rate sufficient to signal herd rebuilding … It could very well be that feeder cattle prices have not yet peaked, and the market is beginning 2025 with more optimism.”

USDA’s Cattle report Jan. 31 will offer insight on the rate of beef cow herd liquidation last year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $1-$2 higher at $192-$193/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $196-$197 in Nebraska and $195-$197 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $307.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.99 higher Monday afternoon at $325.37/cwt., supported by slower packer production. Select was $3.63 higher at $294.76.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Monday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 37¢ higher, except for an average of 28¢ lower in the back two contracts. Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ higher, except for an average of 28¢ lower in two contracts. 

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Corn futures were 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Monday, pressured in part by likely year-end profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 418 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 63 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 235 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 47¢ to 51¢ higher through the front six contracts

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Even though cattle and beef prices achieved record-high levels in 2024, cattle markets represented a similar chapter in the story that began in 2022, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

Despite a sixth consecutive year of declining U.S. calf crops, Peel points out feedlots held average monthly inventories fractionally higher compared to the year before by continued feeding of more heifers and by feeding cattle for longer.

Peel notes heifers still represented 39.7% of feedlot inventories as of Oct. 1, near the upper end of historical levels and well above levels that would indicate heifer retention.

“Although final data for the year are still coming, it appears that total beef production in 2024 was down just 0.6% year over year. This is significantly less than earlier expectations of a 4+% year-over-year decrease,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “In fact, fed beef production was up 2.2% due to larger than expected steer and heifer slaughter and a sharp increase in carcass weights in 2024.”

Average steer carcass weights increased 22 pounds year over year and average heifer carcass weights averaged 18 pounds more, according to Peel. Even so, he says Choice boxed beef prices averaged 2.8% more year over.

On the other hand, Peel explains non-fed beef production was 13.2% less year over, driven by sharp reductions in cow slaughter. 

“Beef cow slaughter was down 19.0% year over year and dairy cow slaughter was down 12.2% from the previous year,” Peel says. “Reduced supplies of processing beef led to record wholesale trimmings prices, increased demand for imported beef, strong lean demand for end meats, and record cull cow prices.”

Bottom line, Peel says USDA’s Jan. 1 Cattle report (scheduled for release Jan. 31) will likely confirm that cattle inventories continued to decline in 2024. 

“Much of 2024 was occupied with producers looking for indications of heifer retention that would lead to eventual herd rebuilding. With no indications of heifer retention at the end of 2024, the new year starts with the same question,” Peel says. 

Cattle futures extended gains Friday, supported by another day of stronger wholesale beef values and higher cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 97¢ higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 69¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.23 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.96 higher ($2.12 to $3.97 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light to moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to light on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $1-$2 higher in the Southern Plains at $192-$193/cwt.

There were some early live FOB trades in the western Corn Belt at $196 and a few dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $307, but too few to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $195-$195.50 in Nebraska and $195-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.99 higher Friday afternoon at $322.38/cwt. Select was $2.36 higher at $291.13. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $6.53 higher and Select was $5.22 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 434,000 head was 67,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 31 million head was 1.2 million head less (-3.7%) than the same time a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 26.4 billion pounds was 169.1 million pounds less (-0.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed mixed, from fractionally higher to 1¢ higher in old-crop contracts and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. They were an average of 6’3¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week, supported by demand. Net weekly U.S. export sales of corn were 46% more than the previous week and 39% more than the prior four-week average.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ higher helped along by stronger recent demand. Net weekly U.S. export sales were 34% more than the previous week and 64% more than the prior four-week average.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ lower, giving back some of the previous session’s South American weather premium and pressured by a reminder of lagging demand. Weekly net U.S. export sales were 31% less than the previous week — a marketing year low — and 47% less than the prior four-week average.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, led by tech stocks and pressured by rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 333 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 66 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 298 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 74¢ to 98¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Looking to the new year, CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange provides a comprehensive outlook describing how the high level of policy uncertainty facing rural industries adds to their already long list of headwinds and challenges.

“The environment we enter in 2025 hasn’t fully defined itself yet, but many of the policies proposed by the incoming administration would likely have a negative impact on U.S. agriculture,” says Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “Open access to export markets and labor availability are critically important for agricultural producers and processors. Depending on how policy plays out, those two areas could be big challenges in 2025 and beyond.”

Cattle futures were sharply higher Thursday, buoyed by stronger wholesale beef values and the prospects of steady to higher cash fed cattle trade again this week.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.79 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains to a standstill in North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt., in the Southern Plains on a light test, $195-$195.50 in Nebraska and $195-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.41 higher Thursday afternoon at $320.39/cwt. Select was $2.02 higher at $288.77.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday, perhaps with short covering and perceived value buying.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 16¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 37¢ to 50¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in December after advancing above growth neutral in November for the first time since July 2023. The index is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Month to month, the overall index sank 10.6 points to 39.6 in December, the 11th time this year the reading was below growth neutral. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“In retrospect, and based on bank CEO comments, there appears to have been a significant November upturn resulting from the surprising Trump election results,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “That positive bump disappeared in December as continuing weak grain prices and farm income losses weighed on a significant proportion of farmers in the region.”

Approximately one in four bankers reported that their local economy was either currently in a recession or would enter a downturn in 2025. The remaining three of four bankers expect slow growth but no recession for 2025.

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months, according to the RMI confidence index, which slumped to 37.5 from November’s weak 46.4.

Weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months drove the decline in confidence, according to Goss.

The region’s farmland index fell to 41.3 from November’s weak 44.4.

Month to month, the farm equipment sales index declined 0.3 points to 14.3, its lowest level since October 2016 and the 17^th consecutive month of settling below growth neutral.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday with traders appearing to view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 42¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt., in the Southern Plains on a light test, $195-$195.50 in Nebraska and $195-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 42¢ higher at $194.73. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $2.20 higher at 305.64.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ higher Monday afternoon at $315.98/cwt. Select was 84¢ higher at $286.75.

The grain complex was mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 192 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded from $2/cwt. lower to $2 higher across the nation last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service with prices at or near record-high levels. Trade volume at auction, video-internet and direct was 243,000 head, which was 102,300 head more than the same week last year.

“Current high prices are reminiscent of the cyclical peak prices of 2014-15 with both having been provoked by drought exaggerated herd liquidations,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, some very important differences mean that the current situation will play out in a much different fashion going forward.”

Peel explains the previous herd expansion from 2014 to 2019 was sharp and rapid with high prices lasting about two years. He adds the pipeline of replacement heifers was building ahead of the expansion, making its degree and speed possible.

“With two years of high prices already in 2023-2024, there is no indication that cyclically high prices will be as short-lived as a decade ago,” Peel says. “The pipeline of replacement heifers has continued to be depleted to this point. The cattle industry has shown no signs of attempting to rebuild the herd yet and the process will be slower when it does happen. The peak prices in 2014-15 coincided with increased heifer retention that squeezed feeder supplies to the tightest levels. Since no heifer retention has occurred yet, the highest prices are ahead, possibly in 2025 but more likely beyond.”

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by rebounding outside markets and steady to higher cash fed cattle prices.  .

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.26 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 higher (62¢ higher at the back to $1.85 higher toward the front).   

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.00 lower ($1.00 to $3.62 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.63 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light to moderate demand elsewhere, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $191/cwt., unevenly steady in Nebraska at $195-$195.50 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $195-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $305, which was steady to $5 higher in Nebraska and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt. FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $191-$192 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.84 lower Friday afternoon at $315.85/cwt. Select was $1.80 higher at $285.91.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 617,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 4,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30.6 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) year over year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 26 billion pounds was 121.3 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Soybean futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Aug ’26 and then mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher, supported by short covering. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, boosted by a tamer inflation reading.

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) was 2.4% higher year over year in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was less than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 498 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 196 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.8 million head in November, which was 69,000 head fewer (-3.7%) year over year. That was 0.4% more than expectations ahead of the report.

Marketings in November of 1.7 million head were 26,000 head fewer (1.5%) than the same timer a year earlier. That was just fractionally more than pre-report estimates.

Cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 12 million head were 34,000 head fewer year over year, which was slightly lower than the previous year and in line with projections ahead of the report.

Cattle futures moved lower Thursday with the lack of weekly cash fed cattle trade direction and perhaps wariness over Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.97 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.81 lower.       

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to light on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.85 higher Thursday afternoon at $320.69/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $284.11.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday, with a bounce in Soybeans after recent aggressive selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices firmed Thursday but appeared to remain in correction mode.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 19 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 73¢ to 89¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday as wholesale beef values weakened, outside markets turned negative, and perhaps with some early positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in Nebraska to inactive on very light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.84/cwt. Select was $2.95 lower at $285.55.

Grain and Soybean closed lower again on Wednesday, once again led by Soybeans.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 24¢ to 26¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices sank sharply lower Thursday pressured by a more hawkish outlook for interest rates.

The Fed cut interest rates by another 0.25% on Wednesday, as was widely expected. However, the latest FOMC outlook suggests the potential for more restrictive cuts in 2025 than originally expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,123 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 178 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 716 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 37¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures firmed but closed mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.80 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 21¢ lower, to an average of 19¢ higher.

Given the temporary suspension of Mexican cattle imports, and the timing late last month, it will be interesting to see how traders position ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the source, analyst estimates ahead of the report see November placements about 4% less year over year and marketings down about 2%, leaving cattle on feed Dec. 1 about even.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.74 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.63/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $288.50.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with apparent profit taking and repositioning ahead of the Fed’s next decision about interest rates on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 267 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 64 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Calf prices are ending the year on an extraordinarily strong note.

“Calf prices for 5- and 6-weight animals in the Southern Plains have advanced better than $50/cwt. in the last four weeks, and prices for 4- and 5-weight animals have moved further,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Koontz points out calf price strength belies firming grain prices and the looming seasonal decline in wholesale beef values.

Likewise, while strong, Koontz views cash fed cattle prices as rangebound while steer carcass weights are averaging about 40 pounds more year over year with fed heifers following a similar trend. He says both the heavier weights and front-loaded fed cattle inventory will likely hang over the market.

“The calculated cattle on feed over 150 days has been larger than any of the proceeding years – other than 2020 – but this inventory has been moving lower through the summer and fall with exception of November,” Koontz explains. “The pipeline is full for the near term and less so into next year. But then there are first-quarter packer margins to navigate.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $191-$192/cwt, steady in Kansas at $191, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska at $196 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $193-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at $300-$305 and $5-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302-$305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.41 higher at $194.31/cwt. The weighted averaged dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.23 higher at $297.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.37/cwt. Select was $5.71 higher at $289.57.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.37 lower. Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 75¢ lower across a broad range with most of the pressure in the front three contracts.    

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 110 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 247 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 60¢ to 71¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Currently-suspended cattle imports to the U.S. from Mexico — due to New World Screwworm — helped fuel feeder steer price expectations in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, compared to the previous month.

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast feeder steer price by $5/cwt. in the fourth quarter of this year to $259. The annual average 2024 price increased $1.25 to $252.09. Those prices are basis 750-800 lb. Medium and Large No. 1 steers selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS increased next year’s projected feeder steer price by $13-$17 in the first three quarters to $265 in the first quarter, $270 in the second and $275 in the third. The projected annual average price for 2025 increased $14.50 to $272.50.

ERS analysts emphasize the projections are based on the border closure remaining in place, as there is no current date established for trade resumption.

As reported in Cattle Current last week, ERS elevated the month-to-month forecast fed steer price for 2025 in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

ERS left the first-quarter price unchanged at $188 but increased price projections by $2 in the second quarter to $189 and by $6 in the third quarter to $192 with an annual average price $3 higher at $191.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $191-$192/cwt, steady in Kansas at $191 and $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $195-$196/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $8 higher in Nebraska at $305 on a light test and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 higher Friday afternoon at $316.39/cwt. Select was $3.38 higher at $283.86. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.35 higher and Select was $7.13 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 5,000 head fewer than the previous week and 38,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.7%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 25.5 billion pounds was 131.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Cattle futures closed mixed Friday, with Live Cattle supported by higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ lower. Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 93¢ higher in the front four contracts (22¢ to $1.52 higher) to an average of 21¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.09 higher ($1.25 higher at the back to $6.27 higher in spot Dec). During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.17 higher (from 55¢ higher at the back to $3.00 higher toward the front).    

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking and farmer selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 23 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 85¢ to $1.27 higher through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices climbed higher in the North Thursday where trade was slow with moderate to good demand through the afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to last week, FOB live prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $195-$196/cwt. For the week, dressed delivered prices are $8 higher in Nebraska at $305 on a light test and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Trade in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon was mostly inactive on light demand. FOB live prices in Kansas earlier in the week were steady at $191. FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $190-$191.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.01 higher Thursday afternoon at $315.24/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $280.48.

Cattle futures softened Thursday, with some likely profit taking and despite higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 81¢ lower, except for unchanged in the spot contract.  

Grain and Soybean futures softened Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower with likely profit taking and farmer selling. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday amid strong fundamentals and prospects for higher cash fed cattle trade this week.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.63 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher.  

There were some early FOB live prices at $193/cwt. in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt but too few to trend.

Established trade so far this week is steady at $191 FOB live in Kansas.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191 in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$192 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $311.23/cwt. Select was $1.54 lower at $278.11.

Grain and Soybean futures firmed Wednesday, with follow-through support from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, offset by chart resistance in Corn.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Wednesday. Support included tech stocks and an inflation reading in line with expectations.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% month to month in November on a seasonally adjusted basis,

according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 347 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.14 to $1.75 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA recently provided early-release Baseline Projections to 2034. After declining again this year, those projections see the beef cow herd declining further to 27.8 million in 2026, then growing to 30.6 million in 2031 before declining again.

USDA projects Oklahoma City feeder steers prices (750-800 pounds) to average $258.75 per cwt. in 2025 and then peak at $267.26 in 2026 before declining to $189.80 in 2031.

USDA forecasts the weighted average five-area direct fed steer price at $186.50 per cwt. in 2025 and then peaking at $196.49 in 2026 before declining to $150.65 in 2031.

Incidentally, USDA forecasts the farm price for corn at $3.90 to $4.30 per bushel during the projection period.

Cattle futures were strongly higher Tuesday, helped along by early indications of steady to higher cash prices.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.77 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher.      

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $191/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191 in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$192 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.41 lower Tuesday afternoon at $311.73/cwt. Select was 31¢ higher at $279.65.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, benefiting from the friendly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Tuesday as investors await key inflation data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 154 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 49 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were unchanged to marginally higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left the fourth-quarter five-area direct fed steer price and the annual average 2024 price unchanged at $188/cwt. and $186.68, respectively, in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For 2025, compared to the previous month’s projections, ERS left the first-quarter price unchanged at $188 but increased price projections by $2 in the second quarter to $189 and by $6 in the third quarter to $192 with an annual average price $3 higher at $191.

Without any official timeline for resuming live cattle exports from Mexico to the United States — due to New World Screw Worm — ERS analysts emphasize the latest WASDE projections assume export restrictions will remain in place indefinitely.

With the above assumption in mind, ERS reduced projected 2025 beef production, compared to the previous month’s estimate. ERS forecasts beef production next year to be 25.7 billion pounds, which was 615.3 million pounds less than the previous projection. Next year’s total would be 1.4 billion pounds less (-5.1%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures were mostly higher Friday, supported by last week’s higher cash fed cattle trade and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 45¢ higher, except for an average of 12¢ lower at either end of the board. Live Cattle futures were an average of 44¢ higher.

There was no Monday afternoon USDA fed cattle sale summary available at press time.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $191-$192 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $297. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $295.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer prices last week was 93¢ higher at $190.90. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 57¢ higher at $297.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $314.14/cwt. Select was $2.61 higher at $279.34.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Monday led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 123 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 80¢ to 98¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, boosted by higher cash fed cattle prices and despite USDA announcing a National Milk Testing Strategy aimed at surveillance of the nation’s milk supply and dairy herds for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.04 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 lower (60¢ to $2.60 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.15 lower during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand in other regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$3 higher on a light test in the Texas Panhandle at $191/cwt., $1 higher in Kansas at $191, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $191-$192 and steady in the western Corn belt at $190.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $297, which was from $3 higher to $8 lower. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.20 higher Friday afternoon at $312.04/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $276.73.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 29.4 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.9 billion pounds was 108.3 million pounds less (-0.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales and perhaps some betting on favorable adjustments in next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 1¢ higher through Dec ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday with positive news including a positive jobs report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢, or 0.4%, to $35.61. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to $1.10 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports were higher year over year in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

October beef exports totaled 105,269 metric tons (mt) in October, up 1% from a year earlier. Value increased 3% to $860.4 million. For January through October, beef export value was 4% above last year at $8.68 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (1.066 million mt).

“It’s encouraging to see an uptick in demand for U.S. beef in China and Korea, where the economic headwinds have been formidable this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Our Western Hemisphere markets have been outstanding, and exports have also expanded to the ASEAN region. So, if U.S. beef can regain momentum in these larger Asian destinations, this bodes well for 2025.”

Beef exports to China/Hong Kong totaled 20,493 mt in October, up 16% from a year ago and the largest since June 2023. Export value climbed 17% to $190.6 million, also the highest since June 2023.

October beef exports to Korea — the leading value destination for U.S. beef — were the largest since April at 19,638 mt, up 5% from a year ago, while value climbed 10% to $191.7 million – the highest since March.

Beef export value equated to $380.98 per head of fed slaughter in October, down 2% from a year ago. The January-October average was $411.03, up 4%.

U.S. pork exports in October were 3% more year over year at 252,411 mt.  Value also increased 3% to $710.4 million.

Cattle futures weakened further Thursday sans weekly cash fed cattle direction and sluggish Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.66 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.84/cwt. Select was 60¢ lower at $277.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales that were 63% more than the previous week and 4% more than the prior-four-week average. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with apparent investor skittishness ahead of Friday’s national jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 34 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 12¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Given cow-calf profitability, hay production, hay prices and the current rates of beef cow and heifer slaughter, James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas expects to see a 1% decline in beef cow inventories this year.

In terms of profitability, Mitchell shares estimated cow-calf returns over cash costs provided by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“According to LMIC estimates, returns are projected at $622 per cow in 2024, making it the most profitable year on a nominal basis … surpassing the $534 per cow recorded in 2014,” Mitchell explains in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “However, comparisons are more meaningful when adjusted for inflation. When 2014 returns are converted to 2024 dollars, they equal $707 per cow, exceeding 2024 returns by $86 per cow.”

As for slaughter rates, beef cow slaughter — a measure of cow culling — is 18% less year over year, while heifer slaughter — a measure of heifer retention is 1.5% less, according to Mitchell.

“An important consideration is the slaughter rate relative to available supplies, rather than absolute cow and heifer slaughter numbers,” Mitchell says. “When viewed in this context, it becomes evident that the current slaughter rate has not yet reached a level signaling an increase in beef cow inventories. For example, in 2023 we slaughtered 12% of the beef cows that were available to slaughter as of January 1 (implied cull rate). In 2024, it looks like we will slaughter 10% of available beef cows. While this is an improvement, it still is not a low enough cull rate to signal an increase in beef cow numbers.”

Cattle futures tracked lower Wednesday as traders await the week’s cash fed cattle direction and Choice wholesale beef values struggle.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.46 lower.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.50 lower Wednesday afternoon at $308.33/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $277.70.

Grain and Soybean futures continued mixed again Wednesday with overall pressure including the strength of the U.S. dollar and uncertainty related to the coming shift in presidential administrations.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, fueled by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 308 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 254 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.03 to $1.19 lower through the front six contracts.

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Fewer available cattle and increased wheat pasture prospects are key drivers of recent calf price increases, according to David Anderson, Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M University,

“Lighter-weight, 400-500 pound calf prices have jumped about $30/cwt. in the Southern Plains over the last month,” Anderson explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Heavier 500-600 pound steers are up around $20 per cwt and 700-800 pound feeders are up about $80 per cwt over the same period in the Southern Plains. Seasonal lows in the calf market are in the rearview mirror for 2024. Calf prices do tend to increase, seasonally, in the late Fall.”

Anderson says, it’s too soon to say if the restriction on Mexican cattle imports is affecting cash prices on this side of the border.

“Price impacts will depend on how long import delays last,” Anderson says.

Cattle futures found some footing Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle as the CME Feeder Cattle Index continued to rise — up about $5 in the last two days.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.68 lower Tuesday afternoon at $309.33/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $275.33.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices mainly paddled water at and near record levels Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 76 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.50 to $1.88 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment increased month to month in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index climbed 30 points to a reading of 145, the highest level since May of 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index increased 18 points to 113.

Increased barometer readings reflect growing optimism about a more favorable regulatory and tax environment for agriculture following the U.S. election, according to barometer analysts.

The percentage of producers expecting their operation’s financial performance to improve over the next year climbed to 33%, up from 19% in October. Optimism about the U.S. agricultural sector also surged, with 34% of producers anticipating good times financially in the next 12 months, more than double October’s 15%.

To gain insight into how farmers’ sentiment might align with potential policy shifts following a change in presidential administrations, barometer surveys included several policy-related questions before and after the 2020 and 2024 elections.

In the wake of the 2024 election, farmers’ views on environmental regulations experienced a sharp reversal. In October, 41% of respondents anticipated a more restrictive regulatory environment over the next five years, while only 10% expected less restrictive regulations. However, the November survey saw a dramatic shift, with just 9% of surveyed farmers expecting stricter regulations and 55% predicting a more favorable, less restrictive regulatory landscape.

Similarly, 55% of respondents expected income tax rates to remain unchanged, compared to just 25% in 2020. Likewise, 57% of respondents in the November survey anticipated estate tax rates to stay the same over the next five years, a large increase from 28% in November 2020.

“While optimism is up, farmers are also expressing concerns about the potential risks to agricultural trade, with many fearing that a trade war could significantly impact U.S. exports,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Cattle futures softened Monday, led by Feeder Cattle, perhaps pressured by profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.31 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.49 higher Monday afternoon at $313.01/cwt. Select was $2.70 higher at $277.00.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the lion’s share of support centered on tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 185 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ to 18¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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With live cattle imports from Mexico to the United States expected to be suspended for at least three weeks — due to New World Screwworm — Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says more Mexican imports are unlikely this year.

“The lack of Mexican cattle imports for the remainder of the year will have some immediate impact reducing an already tight feeder supply. However, some of the feedlot impact is not immediate because a portion of the imported Mexican cattle are lightweight and typically go through stocker/backgrounding programs before feedlot placement,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “In the January – September period this year about 24% of the imported cattle were less than 200 kilograms (441 pounds). It’s important to remember that most of the cattle not imported for the remainder of the year will enter the U.S. eventually, just with a delay.”

Barring a prolonged border closure or permanent changes to import regulations, Peel says a change in timing with a short-term tightening of supply will be the primary impact on the domestic feeder cattle market.

For perspective, Peel says imports of cattle from Mexico to the U.S. were 21.3% more year over year through the first nine months of 2024, suggesting total imports for the year of about 1.5 million head. He adds that Mexican cattle imports represent 3.3% of the total U.S. calf crop on average. 

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, with week-to-week gains supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher. Week to week, they were an average of $4.60 higher; an average of $11.51 higher over the past two weeks.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ higher (2¢ to 75¢ higher), except for 2¢ lower in spot Dec. Week to week they were an average of $1.19 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Friday afternoon at $310.52/cwt. Select was unchanged at $274.30. Week to week, Choice was $3.11 higher and Select was up $2.23.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 28.7 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production was 110.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices ended the week and month on a positive note at the end of the holiday-shortened trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 51¢ lower to 72¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 15 points month to month in November to 50.2. That was the first time the RMI was above growth neutral since July 2023.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer.”

Among other RMI highlights…

• Farmland prices sank for the sixth time in the past seven months. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.7% over the next 12 months.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below-breakeven grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” according to Goss.

• The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016.

“This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.

• Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. However, the November confidence index increased to 46.4, its highest level since March 2022.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate with good demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions, which was $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $3-$4 higher in Kansas, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices last week were at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $311.26/cwt. Select was $1.19 lower at $274.30.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 88¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks. However, inflation news provided a bright spot. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% month to month in October, which was in line with expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 115 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ lower to 1¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Heifer slaughter data continues pointing to scant retention, if any, for herd expansion.

In fact, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the percentage of heifers comprising the mix of total cattle slaughter this year will likely be the highest since 2004.

“Heifer retention usually lags changes in cow culling,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Herd expansion results in decreased heifer slaughter rates similar to the 1991-1996 and the 2014-2017 periods.  Current heifer slaughter rates suggest that the beef cow herd has continued to decrease in 2024 and that prospects for herd expansion in 2025 are very limited.”

Although less year over year, Peel says cow slaughter continues at a non-expansion pace.

“Declining cull cow rates are often the leading indicator of producer herd rebuilding intentions,” Peel explains. “Beef cow slaughter is down 17.9% year over year in the first 45 weeks of 2024. This is projected to result in an annual culling rate of about 10%, roughly equal to the long-term average and down from the recent high over 13% in 2022. During herd expansion the cow culling rate typically drops below 9% for 3-4 years.”

Feeder Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, buoyed in part by the temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.74 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186-$187/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $186-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 higher Tuesday afternoon at $311.57/cwt. Select was $1.75 higher at $275.49.

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 119 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 20¢ to 25¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico to the U.S. — due to detection on New World Screwworm in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas — comes with plenty of market questions.

“Roughly 5% of feedlot placements this year have been imported feeder cattle from Mexico,” explain Extension livestock economists in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “The fall months are a seasonally high import period. If the ban on imports of feeder cattle lasts awhile, it would mean a lower supply of feeder cattle going into feedlots. Tight feeder cattle supplies would get tighter which would mean more support for prices.”

Unknowns, according to the economists, include if and where additional cases are identified, duration of the import restriction and whether the ban will continue to affect all imported cattle from Mexico or only those from specific regions.

Economists contributing to the Cattle Market Notes Weekly article are: Josh Maples, Mississippi State University; David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension; Charley Martinez, University of Tennessee.

On Tuesday, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA) provided its members with current insights following a call with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) and others.

Among the TCFA summary points:

• “USDA-APHIS’ goal is to reopen some of the cattle crossings in the next three weeks or so … The length of time it takes to reopen the crossings is largely dependent on how quickly Mexico moves.
• “Crossings where cattle are inspected on the Mexican side of the border will reopen first. For now, that means the crossings in New Mexico and Arizona.
• “USDA-APHIS is requiring that the Mexican government establish additional pre-export pens to verify the safety of Mexican cattle …”

Feeder Cattle futures gained on Monday, due in part to USDA’s temporary suspension of imports and transit of live cattle from Mexico after the positive detection of New World screwworm in that nation (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 higher, except for 45¢ lower in the back contract. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed: unchanged to an average of 27¢ lower through the front four contracts and then an average of 23¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $186-$187, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $186-$188. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB fed steer price last week was $1.60 higher at $186.39/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 72¢ higher at $291.56.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.30 higher Monday afternoon at $309.71/cwt. Select was $1.67 higher at $273.74.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 440 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.84 to $2.16 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA announced the temporary suspension of imports and transit of live cattle from Mexico to the United States after the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection checkpoint close to the border with Guatemala. NWS are fly larvae that infest living tissue of warm-blooded animals, causing infection. NWS was eradicated from the U.S. in 1966.

“Given the northward movement of NWS, APHIS has in recent months stepped up its efforts in Central America to partner with impacted countries to push this pest out of newly affected areas,” says Dr. Rosemary Sifford, Chief Veterinary Officer of the United States. “With this latest find in Mexico, we will further intensify this work to protect American agriculture and reestablish the barrier in Central America.”

NWS maggots can infest livestock and other warm-blooded animals, including people.

“They most often enter an animal through an open wound and feed on the animal’s living flesh,” according to APHIS. “While they can fly much farther under ideal conditions, adult flies generally do not travel more than a couple of miles if there are suitable host animals in the area…

“APHIS is working with partners in Mexico and Central America to stop the spread of NWS into the United States and asking all producers along the southern border to watch their livestock and pets for signs of NWS and immediately report potential cases.”

Visit APHIS for more details.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $186-$187, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $186-$188. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $290. The previous week dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $290-$300.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 62¢ higher Friday afternoon at $307.41/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $272.07. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.07 higher, but Select was $4.07 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 631,000 head was 25,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.2 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.3%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date beef production of 23.9 billion pounds was 27.8 million pounds fewer (-0.1%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, bolstered by the week’s firmer Choice wholesale beef value and steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.08 higher on Friday and were an average of $6.91 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ higher Friday. Week to week, they were an average of $3.06 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Friday.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Nov ‘25 and then mostly 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 426 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 85¢ to $1.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.3 million head in October which was 5.3% more year over year and about 2% more than expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 47% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 40% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.8 million head were 4.7% more year over year, which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.99 million head was 0.3% more than the same time last year, also in line with expectations ahead of the report.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were some dressed delivered sales in Nebraska at $290/cwt., which was steady with last week.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $306.79/cwt. Select was $1.93 higher at $272.92.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 80¢ higher with continued support from improved winter grazing prospects. Live Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower with likely pressure from positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with pressure including the higher U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 461 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 96¢ to $1.38 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, helped along by this week’s firmer Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.43 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 higher Tuesday afternoon at $308.79/cwt. Select was $3.54 lower at $271.91.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday as traders appeared to apply more risk premium based on Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday with tech stocks leading gains once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 120 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 195 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME was marginally higher through the front six contracts.

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Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide regional price perspective for steers weighing 700-800 lbs., in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“The Billings, MT weekly auction data reported last week’s feeder steer price at $264/cwt., which is slightly better than where prices were a few months ago. Prices have been ranging from about $250 to $280 since the start of the year,” LMIC analysts say.

In South Dakota, they explain last week’s feeder steer price was $265/cwt. with prices ranging from about $250 to $280 since July.

“Feeder cattle prices in Nebraska peaked at $295 in mid-July; since then prices have been ranging from $260 to $274, and last week were $267,” according to LMIC analysts.

In the Kansas and Oklahoma, they explain feeder steer prices ranged from about $246 to $270 since March, and last week’s price was $257.

For further perspective, and for steers weighing 600-700 lbs., average prices last week were $31.52 higher year over year in the North Central Region at $290.17/cwt., $27.17 higher in the South Central region at $266.56 and $28.64 higher in the Southeast at $252.41, according to USDA’s  National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

Cattle futures extended gains Monday, led once again by Feeder Cattle and underpinned by strong cash demand for calves and feeder cattle.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.41 higher.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.94 higher Monday afternoon at $307.28/cwt. Select was 69¢ lower at $275.45.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday as traders appeared to apply more risk premium based on Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with tech stocks earning the strongest support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 55 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 111 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.16 to $2.29 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural lenders expect 58% of borrowers to be profitable this year compared to 78% last year, according to the 2024 Ag Lender Survey report produced jointly by the American Bankers Association and the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, more commonly known as Farmer Mac. The combination of lower export demand for U.S. agricultural goods and the rebound of global inventories has put significant downward pressure on global commodity prices and U.S. farm incomes, according to the report released last week at the ABA Agricultural Bankers Conference in Milwaukee. However, profitability expectations varied by region and major commodity types, with livestock producers garnering more optimism from lenders than crop growers.

Among other report highlights:

*Farmland values continued to rise in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. However, regional differences abound, and headwinds have grown in many areas. As a result, most lenders expect land values and cash rents may plateau or decline over the next year.

*Unsurprisingly, liquidity and farm income remained atop the list of lender concerns for producers. Meanwhile, lenders expressed less concern this year about inflation, weather and many other factors affecting producers.

*Concern levels spiked in 2024 for several sectors, including grains, fruits and tree nuts. On the other hand, concern levels dropped for dairy, beef and poultry. The changes largely reflect how the farm income outlook has shifted within each sector over the past year.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.16 higher on Friday, leading the complex higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $5.58 higher, buoyed by lower Corn futures and strong cash demand in the country with added support from recent rains in wheat pasture country.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Dec. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $1.39 higher, except for an average of 40¢ lower in the front two contracts.

That was despite weaker negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

For the week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Southern Plains, $1-$2 lower in Nebraska and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 46¢ lower Friday afternoon at $303.34/cwt. Select was 52¢ lower at $276.14.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 606,000 head was 13,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 27.6 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.7%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 23.4 billion pounds was 125.7 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday on likely corrective buying.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Friday as investors appeared to grow skittish about the path of interest rate cuts and potential policy shifts with the new administration.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 427 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.39 to $1.68 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) bumped this year’s forecast annual feeder steer price slightly higher, and next year’s annual average price slightly lower in the November Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

For feeder steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City, ERS projected prices $1 higher in the fourth quarter at $254/cwt. for annual average price of $250.84, which was 25¢ more than the previous month’s estimate.

“Weekly cattle prices have rebounded from September’s relative lows to establish new highs for October and November,” according to ERS analysts. “They are forecast to continue elevated through 2025, reflecting recent price data and changes to the timing of cattle placements and marketings.”

For 2025, ERS left projected feeder steer prices steady in the first quarter at $248. Forecast prices increased $3 in the second quarter to $257 but decreased $3 in the third quarter to $260 for an annual average price of $258, which was 75¢ less than the prior month’s estimate.

“Earlier this year, it was expected that the number of cattle on feed would shrink year over year in the second half of 2024, based on smaller inventory levels at the beginning of the year, and that year-over-year higher calf prices would result in retention of heifers, limiting numbers in the

Feedlot,” ERS analysts explain. “However, the USDA October Cattle on Feed report estimated the Oct. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.6 million head, nearly flat from the same month last year. Feedlot net placements in September were 2% lower year over year at 2.1 million head. Placements more than offset marketings in September, which registered 1.7 million head, up 2% year over year. As a result, the number of cattle on feed on Oct. 1 has been relatively flat since 2021 despite declining cattle inventories since 2019.”

Combined with fewer year-over-year marketings, they note the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days is higher year over year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Based on the latest established trends, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $185/cwt. and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $182-$185. Dressed delivered prices are $4 lower at $290.

Trade was limited on light demand in the Southern Plains. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $185. Prices last week were $187.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.14 lower Thursday afternoon at $303.80/cwt. Select was $2.00 lower at $276.66.

Cattle futures were mostly lower Thursday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices and sluggish wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 95¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ lower, except for $1.22 higher in spot Nov and unchanged at the back.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday, with pressure from the stronger U.S. Dollar and positive growing conditions.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were lower Thursday. Besides potential rally fatigue, the results of the latest Consumer Price Index, though expected, continue reflecting stubborn inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 207 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 36 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 123 points

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 13¢ to 23¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mainly edged higher Wednesday, awaiting established weekly cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 15¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 15¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 59¢ higher, except for 35¢ lower in spot Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered sales in Nebraska at $290/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $294 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 lower Wednesday afternoon at $306.94/cwt. Select was $1.26 lower at $278.66.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday, with continued pressure from the stronger U.S. Dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were mostly 30¢ to 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday, supported by another day of firmer Choice boxed beef cutout values and likely short covering.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.56 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $294 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 6¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $308.27/cwt. Select was $1.92 higher at $279.92.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, with likely pressure from the stronger U.S. Dollar, profit taking and producer selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Tuesday with likely profit taking and investor wariness about Tuesday’s inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 382 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 17 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 7¢ to 13¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Although bred cow prices are higher year over year, Rob Ziegler, Extension specialist at the University of Wyoming says the increase is likely due to supply and higher cattle prices rather than expansion demand.

In the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, Ziegler explains the October  Cattle on Feed report pegged heifers at 40% of total cattle on feed, whereas consensus suggests the number needs to be 36-37% to signal herd expansion.

“At this point there is little indication that beef cattle producers are retaining heifers to increase cow herd numbers,” Ziegler says.

Cattle futures found some footing Monday, helped along by the firmer boxed beef cutout values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Dec and $1.00 higher at the back of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $294 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $294.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.29 lower at $186.53. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.84 lower at $293.13.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ higher Monday afternoon at $308.21/cwt. Select was $2.65 higher at $281.84.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, presumably pressured by a higher U.S. dollar, farmer selling and sharply lower crude oil prices.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by lower cash prices, lower wholesale beef values and the Goldman role.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.38 lower. Week to week on Friday, they ranged from an average of $1.31 lower in the front four contracts to an average of 93¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.33 lower Friday. Week to week, they were an average of $1.28 lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to light on light demand in other major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$188. Although too few to trend, there were some early trades in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186, where prices the previous week were $190.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.53 lower Friday afternoon at $307.93/cwt. Select was 53¢ lower at $279.19.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.41 lower at $307.93/cwt. Select was $5.84 lower at $279.19. Over the past two weeks, Choice was down $14.31 and Select was $15.89 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 619,000 head was 4,000 head more than the previous week but 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 27 million head was 1 million head fewer (-3.7%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 117.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher through Jan ’26 and then mainly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 259 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.98 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and next, in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on recent prices and the continued strength in beef demand.

Compared to the previous month’s projections, forecast prices increased $2 in the fourth quarter of this year to $188/cwt. with this year’s annual average price up 50¢ at $186.68. The ERS projected prices in the first three quarters of 2025 $1 higher at $188, $187 and $186, respectively. The forecast 2025 average price also rose $1 to $188.

Increased prices came with expectations for increased beef production.

Compared to the previous month, projected beef production for this year rose by 25 million pounds to 27.02 billion pounds. Beef production increased with higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected steer and heifer slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 26.3 billion pounds was 355 million pounds more (+1.4%) than the previous month’s estimate. It would be 745 million pounds less (-2.8%) than this year’s projected production. Estimated beef production rose on heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher-than-previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday with follow-through support from outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.13 lower Thursday afternoon at $309.46/cwt. Select was $3.48 lower at $279.72.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 17¢ to 23¢ higher, boosted by weekly soybean oil exports. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, but mainly higher with follow-through support from the previous session and the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates a quarter-point.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 285 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 34¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.2% of their disposable personal income on food in 2023, on par with the amount spent in 2022, according to USDA’s Economics Research Service (ERS).

Consumer preferences between food-at-home and food-away-from-home spending shifted over time and have returned to trends observed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, consumers spent 5.3% of their disposable personal income on food at home, which was 5.6% less than the previous year. Conversely, expenditures on food away from home rose to 5.9%, up 0.3% year over year. ERS analysts say convenience in meal options, increased disposable personal income and lifestyle changes emerging from the pandemic may have contributed to the shift.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, buoyed by aggressively stronger equity markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 lower Wednesday afternoon at $315.59/cwt. Select was $2.04 lower at $283.20.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were mixed, from 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday with investors cheering results of the presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,508 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 146 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 544 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 11¢ to 21¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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September U.S. beef exports were higher year-over-year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Exports of U.S. beef totaled 103,980 metric tons (mt) in September, up 5% year-over-year, while export value climbed 6% to $843.8 million. January-September exports increased 5% in value to $7.82 billion, despite volume falling 2% to 960,814 mt.

With the exception of China/Hong Kong, September beef exports trended higher than a year ago in all major Asian markets, while demand remained strong in Mexico and shipments to Central America were the largest in 18 months.

“The tourism rebound in Asia has certainly provided momentum for U.S. beef, especially in Japan, Taiwan and Korea,” according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “We also saw impressive growth in the Philippines and Indonesia, which are markets where we see a lot of untapped growth potential.”

Beef export value equated to $412.52 per head of fed slaughter in September, up 3% from a year ago. The January-September average was $414.62 per head, up 5%.

For broader perspective, U.S. pork exports in September of 238,047 mt were 8% more year over year, while value increased 6% to $685.1 million. Through the first three quarters of the year, pork exports were 5% above last year’s pace at 2.23 million mt, with value up 7% to $6.36 billion.

Cattle futures eased higher Tuesday, helped along by more bullish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for 25¢ lower in spot Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in spot Nov and no trade in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill in other major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $317.21/cwt. Select was $1.92 lower at $285.24.

Grain and Soybean futures were stronger Tuesday with follow-through support from positive export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures 2¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with apparent investor optimism regarding the presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 70 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 259 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 49¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment rose significantly and unexpectedly month to month in October based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose 27 points to 115, primarily driven by producers’ increased confidence in the future, with the Future Expectations Index jumping 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also improved, reaching 95, but still reflected producers’ concerns that economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than the barometer’s base period of 2015-16 during the early days of a multiyear downturn in the U.S. farm economy.

In October, only 53% of producers anticipated challenging times for the U.S. agricultural economy in the year ahead, a decrease from 73% in September. Similarly, concerns about the next five years eased, with just 33% of producers expecting tough times ahead, down from 48% the previous month. Additionally, fewer producers expect worsening financial conditions on their farms over the next 12 months, dropping to 23% in October from 38% in September.

“While producer sentiment improved in October, many respondents indicated they are still feeling financial strain due to the deterioration of their financial situation throughout 2024,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Over half of the producers we surveyed reported that their farm’s financial condition was worse than a year ago, which underscores the ongoing challenges producers face despite their more optimistic outlook for the year ahead.”

This month’s survey was conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 18.

Cattle futures were lower Monday with likely technical pressure and uncertainty ahead of the election.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 23¢ lower at $189.82. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.93 lower at $296.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ higher Monday afternoon at $316.91/cwt. Select was $2.13 higher at $287.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were stronger Monday bolstered by positive export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices gave back a lion’s share of previous-session gains as investors pulled their horns in ahead of Tuesday’s election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 257 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.78 to $2.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Heavy rains in Oklahoma over the weekend revived hopes for late-season winter wheat grazing, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Based on the latest weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending Nov. 3, winter wheat planting was 12% less year over year in Oklahoma at 72%, which was 16% less than the five-year average. Emergence of 47% was 20% less than a year earlier and 26% less than average.

Nationwide, winter wheat planting of 87% lagged last year by 1% and the average by 2%. Emergence of 66% was 6% less than the same time last year and 5% less than the average. In terms of condition, 41% of the winter wheat crop was ranked as Good (35%) or Very Good (6%) versus 50% a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 23% was rated as Poor (15%) or Very Poor (8%), compared to 17% a year earlier.

Corn and soybean harvest remained ahead of schedule with 91% of Corn harvested and 94% of soybeans in the bin.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ higher, except for an average of 54¢ lower on either end of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 higher, supported by strong cash trade.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.11 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.77 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady in other regions at $190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 lower Friday afternoon at $316.34/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $285.03. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.90 lower and Select was $10.05 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 615,000 head was 8,000 head fewer than the previous week and 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.4 million head was 1.0 million less (-3.8%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 22.3 billion pounds was 140.2 million pounds less (-0.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday with support from recent export sales but continued harvest pressure and uncertainty surrounding the impending election.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then unchanged to fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Friday despite significantly less job growth than expected.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged month to month in October with just 12,000 more jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, strikes and hurricanes confounded the situation.

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢ to $35.46. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 288 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 144 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 34¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Continued areas of dryness likely will delay market-relevant, nationwide beef cow herd expansion until at least the summer of 2026, says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Moreover, while market-reported dollar-per-cow returns in 2024 are slated to be attractive for many producers, when put on an inflation-adjusted basis, they have yet to exceed the memorable year of 2014,” Tonsor explains. “Likewise, when one moves beyond a dollars-per-cow approach to investment and decision-making framing around percentage returns (ROI, return-on-investment percentage), reflecting elevated capital necessary to operate, then attraction in expansion may be further tempered. While, on balance, I do envision heifer retention will occur nationally, starting in 2026 at the earliest, there indeed are multiple reasons ‘typical’ producers are being rational in not yet pulling the herd expansion trigger. Implications clearly follow for calf crop size and industry capacity utilization discussions to continue as well.”

Live Cattle futures were mixed Thursday and Feeder Cattle futures were lower with pressure from recently lower wholesale beef prices and month-end position squaring.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures ranged from an average of 12¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 50¢ higher, except for $4.60 higher in expiring Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 62¢ lower, except for 17¢ higher in new spot Nov and $1.02 higher in expiring Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Nebraska to a standstill in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady in other regions at $190. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $2 lower at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.84 lower Thursday afternoon at $317.60/cwt. Select was $3.95 lower at $285.37.

Corn and Soybean futures received support from export sales Thursday. For the week ending Oct. 24, net U.S. corn export sales were 7% higher than the previous four-week average and net U.S. soybean sales were 39% more than the prior four-week average.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower, pressured by the wetter outlook for winter wheat areas of the country.

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Major U.S. financial indices took a strong step lower Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 378 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 512 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.67-$1.92 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to move lower Wednesday with weaker wholesale beef values and likely technical correction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.14 lower, except for 82¢ higher in expiring Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate, on moderate demand in the Western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB Live prices were steady to $1 lower at $189-190/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $298 in a light test.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales at $190 in the Southern Plains.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $190 in Kansas and mostly $190 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices were $298.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.17 lower Wednesday afternoon at $319.44/cwt. Select was 64¢ lower at $289.32.

Heading toward the close Wednesday, through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher on likely short covering. Corn futures fractionally mixed to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by less economic growth than expected. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 104 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Sept. 30 were 6% more than the previous month but 2% less than a year earlier, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 1% higher month to month but slightly less year over year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 1% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 1% less than the prior month and 4% less than the same time last year.

Cattle futures ran out of steam Tuesday with technical pressure and lower wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.32 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.76 lower, except for 7¢ higher in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $190 in Kansas and mostly $190 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $298 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298-$300 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.89 lower Tuesday afternoon at $320.61/cwt. Select was $2.22 lower at $289.96.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher Tuesday with the bearish crop rating in Monday’s Weekly Crop Progress report indicating, 38% was in Good (33%) or Excellent (5%) condition versus 47% at the same time last year. 23% was rated as Poor (16%) of Very Poor (7%) compared to 18% a year earlier.

Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with support from tech stocks but pressure from the rising Treasury yield.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 154 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 145 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 10¢ to 12¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in October for the 14^th consecutive month, to the lowest level since the start of the covid pandemic in the spring of 2020.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales, elevated input costs and falling farmland prices drove the decline, according to Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. October’s overall reading declined 2.3 points from the previous month to 35.2. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Approximately, 61.5% of bankers indicated that the financial position of farmers in their service area had deteriorated over the past six months. The remaining 38.5% reported that farmers’ financial position was unchanged over the past six months.

Cattle futures were higher Monday, shrugging off Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, supported by high cash trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 24¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 86¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190-$191/cwt., mostly $2 higher in Kansas at mainly $190 and $2-$3 higher in the North at mostly $190. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $298 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298-$300 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 higher Monday afternoon at $323.50/cwt. Select was $2.90 lower at $292.18.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Monday on the decline on Crude Oil futures and the planting pace in South America.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, helped along by a sell0ff in Crude Oil futures as traders removed war risk premium.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 273 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 48 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $3.54 to $3.81 lower through the front six contracts.

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Continued large inventories of heifers on feed confirms that little or no heifer retention is starting in 2024, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

“Heifer slaughter is down 1.7% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says.  “Heifer slaughter would have to drop significantly more if heifers were being retained for breeding. In the most recent beef herd expansion, heifer slaughter decreased an average of just over 10% each year in 2014 and 2015.”

The quarterly inventory of heifers on feed was 4.6 million head, down 0.9% year over year. Heifers made up 39.7% of the total feedlot inventory on October 1, up slightly from the 39.6% in July. 

Heifers have averaged 39.5% of total feedlot inventories for the past 10 quarters, since July 2022, and have been above the 15-year average of 36.9% since October 2018, according to Peel.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday with likely trepidation ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below). On Friday, Feeder Cattle closed from an average of 12¢ higher across the front half of the board to an average of 32¢ lower across the back half. They were also narrowly mixed in early-Monday trading.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 11¢ lower, except for 40¢ higher in spot Oct and unchanged in April.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 higher (27¢ to $2.07 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 80¢ higher in the front three contracts to an average of $1.60 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the North to inactive on very light demand the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190-$191/cwt., mostly $2 higher in Kansas at mainly $190 and $2-$3 higher in the North at mostly $190. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $298 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298-$300 in a light test.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer was $2.44 higher at $190.05. The average dressed delivered steer price was $2.69 higher at $298.90.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 higher Friday afternoon at $322.24/cwt. Select was 74¢ higher at $295.08. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.59 higher and Select was 88¢ higher. 

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 623,000 head was 15,000 head more than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 25.7 million head was 1 million head less (-3.8%). Year-to-date beef production of 21.8 billion pounds was 146.5 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on profit taking, producer selling and harvest pressure.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower through Aug ’25 and then mostly 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial were mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 259 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 103 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.38 to $1.59 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets viewed the monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral despite more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.2 million head in September, which was 42,000 head less (-1.9%) year over year but 2.3% more than expectations ahead of the report.

Marketings in September of 1.7 million head were 34,000 head more (+2.0%) than the same week last year, which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on Feed Oct. 1 of 11.6 million head was slightly less year over year, which was also in line with expectations. Heifers comprised 40% of the on-feed inventory, which was 1% less than a year earlier.

Feeder Cattle futures softened Wednesday. Perhaps some of the softness had to do with the announcement yesterday that an E. coli outbreak in several states had been linked to a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder; more specifically, slivered onions (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 16¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in away-Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.55 lower Wednesday afternoon at $321.41/cwt. Select was 97¢ higher at $295.77.

Turning to the grain complex, toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were little changed. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed sharply lower Wednesday, under pressure from rising Treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 409 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 296 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 69¢ to 76¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported Tuesday that an outbreak of E. coli O157:H7 had been linked to Quarter Pounders at McDonalds.

“The specific ingredient linked to illness has not yet been identified, but investigators are focused on two ingredients in particular: fresh slivered onions, and fresh beef patties,” according to the CDC … McDonald’s reported to CDC that they proactively removed the slivered onions and beef patties used for the Quarter Pounder hamburgers from stores in the affected states while the investigation continues. Quarter Pounder hamburgers in some states may be temporarily unavailable.”

All told, 49 people from 10 states (mostly Colorado and Nebraska) have gotten sick from the same strain of E. coli.

McDonald’s North America Chief Supply Chain Officer Cesar Piña shared the following internal message…

“…The initial findings from the investigation indicate that a subset of illnesses may be linked to slivered onions used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single supplier that serves three distribution centers. As a result, and in line with our safety protocols, all local restaurants have been instructed to remove this product from their supply and we have paused the distribution of all slivered onions in the impacted area.

“Out of an abundance of caution, we are also temporarily removing the Quarter Pounder from restaurants in the impacted area, including Colorado, Kansas, Utah and Wyoming, as well as portions of Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oklahoma.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, with support from the continued increase in Choice boxed beef cutout values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.33 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.96/cwt. Select was $1.41 lower at $294.80.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher again Tuesday with follow-through support.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 33 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.26 to $1.68 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Monday, likely nudging chart resistance and perhaps with some early positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 50¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.10 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and steady in the North at $187-$188/cwt. with dressed delivered prices also steady at $296.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $187.61/cwt., which was 40¢ more than the previous week. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 29¢ higher at $296.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.21 higher Monday afternoon at $322.86/cwt. Select was $2.01 higher at $296.21.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher Monday, helped by recent export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 10¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed mixed Monday, with primary pressure from a bounce in the 10-year Treasury bond yield.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 344 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 94¢ to $1.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Choice boxed beef prices continue on a tear, hitting $322.86/cwt. Monday afternoon, which was $26.49 than the recent low Sept. 26, and the highest since July.

“The weekly Choice boxed beef price is also at the highest level since July and has averaged 2.2% higher year over year and a record high for the year-to-date,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He adds prices have moved higher for a number of cuts across the carcass.

“The increase in boxed beef prices is perhaps even more surprising in the face of increased fed beef production,” Peel says. “Higher prices and increased quantities suggest that beef demand continues to be very robust.”

For perspective, Peel explains total fed slaughter is down 0.7% percent compared to last year, while steer carcasses have averaged 25.5 lbs. heavier and heifer carcasses have averaged 22.6 pounds for the year to date.

“The result of stronger than expected fed slaughter and heavier carcass weights has been an increase in fed beef production of 1.9% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says. “In fact, for the last 16 weeks, fed beef production has been 3.7% larger year over year.” 

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by lower grain futures prices, stronger wholesale beef prices and the week’s steady-to-higher cash trade.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.98 higher. However, week to week on Friday, Live Cattle were an average of 65¢ lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 lower, unable to overcome the early-week technical correction.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and steady in the North at $187-$188/cwt. with dressed delivered prices also steady at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Friday afternoon at $320.65/cwt. Select was 68¢ higher at $294.20. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $9.48 higher and Select was $5.48 higher, with the Choice-Select spread the widest on Friday since last October.

Turning to the grain complex, Wheat and Soybean futures closed lower with improving weather in South America, harvest pressure, the stronger U.S. dollar and chatter that Russia was going to begin exporting wheat.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 18¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, with continued bullishness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 115 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.21 to $1.45  lower through the front six contracts.

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Calf prices strengthened contra-seasonally in recent weeks amid declining cattle numbers helped along by softer corn prices.

“It is rare to see calf prices escalate as the market moves into the fourth quarter of

the year, but this is no ordinary year,” Griffith says. “The market price of calves and feeder cattle attempted to encourage cattle producers to retain heifers this year to grow the cattle herd. However, most producers have been challenged with drought and marginal profits, which has resulted in little to no heifer retention … The opposite side of the coin is that calf prices may not increase in December and early January as rapidly as would normally be expected.”

Even so, based on relatively lower price levels in preceding weeks, the ERS reduced the projected fourth-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) in the October Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month, the ERS reduced the forecast fourth-quarter price by $2 to $253/cwt. and the annual average price by 41¢ to $250.59.

Projected feeder steer prices for 2025 were unchanged at $248 in the first quarter, $254 in the Second quarter and $263 in the third quarter with an annual average price of $258.75.

Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday, with likely profit taking and technical correcting. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.08 lower

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186-$187/cwt. in the Southern Plains and  $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.51 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.83/cwt. Select was $2.99 higher at $292.09.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower again, amid harvest pressure and lower outside markets, including Crude Oil.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower

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Calves and feeder cattle sold mixed at Tuesday auctions monitored by Cattle Current, in a limited test.

Feeder steers sold from $5 lower to $3 higher at Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, MO, where there were 2,219 head. Feeder heifers traded from $5 lower to $8 higher.

At Also in Missouri, at Kingsville Livestock Auction  The majority of the feeder offering sold steady to $5 higher with 2,082 head on offer. 

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Major U.S. financial closed lower Tuesday, taking a breather from the recent run.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 324 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 187 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.73 to $2.93  lower through the front six contracts.

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Nationwide last week, steers and heifers sold $1-$5/cwt.  higher on good to very good demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). There were 249,600 head reported at auction, direct and via video-internet, compared to 258,200 head the same week last year.

“Buyers continue to want good long-weaned cattle with shots. Very dry,

dirty weaning pens have not discouraged buyers from purchasing the fresh bawling calves that are appearing in the markets,” AMS analysts explain.

At the same time, AMS analysts explain dry conditions are pushing some cattle earlier than planned.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 43% of cattle are in areas affected by drought versus 46% a year earlier

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday, supported by Choice wholesale beef values and softer Corn futures.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher, except for 40¢ lower in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ higher, except for an average of 51¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were generally steady to $1 higher at $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 32¢ higher at $187.21/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 8¢ lower at $295.92.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $313.32/cwt. Select was 38¢ higher at $289.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Monday, with pressure including a positive South American weather outlook and the recently stronger U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes continued higher on bullish sentiment Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.17 to $1.57 lower through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded mixed to higher last week at the weekly auctions monitored by Cattle Current. In fact, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes calf prices are strengthening counter-seasonally.

“October tends to be the month in which calf prices reach their seasonal low, as many producers are bringing their spring born calf crop to market,” Griffith explains in his weekly market comments. “The softness in the market tends to still be evident in November before slowly firming in December. Contrary to this seasonal tendency is the fall of 2024. The price of calves may have already achieved its seasonal low as two consecutive weeks of higher prices to start October may be the price reversal. If the price lows for the fall marketing time period have already been experienced, then cattle producers have much more to look forward to as prices will be expected to increase through the spring.”

Griffith notes the declining cattle supplies coming into play.

“It is well documented that fewer cows were in the herd, which means fewer calves available for stocker, backgrounding, and feedlot operations,” Griffith says. “This known information has been masked to some degree as feeder cattle have continued making their way to the feedlot due to heifers not being retained and strong beef production from growing cattle larger in the feedlot.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended last week generally steady to $1 higher. FOB live prices were generally $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Friday but higher week to week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ lower, except for unchanged in away Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 48¢ higher (5¢ to $1.05 higher), except for an average of 34¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.03 higher (25¢ to $1.70 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.69 higher (7¢ to $4.60 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.27 higher Friday afternoon at $311.12/cwt. Select was $2.01 lower at $288.72. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $8.64 higher and Select was $1.11 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 586,000 head was 25,000 head fewer than the previous week and 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 24.5 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.8%). Year-to-date beef production of 20.7 billion pounds was 152.7 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Turning to crops, Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday, lacking support from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes closed higher Friday, boosted by bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 409 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 60 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 11¢ to 29¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected five-area average direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and the beginning of next year, in the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on prices in September and expectations of continued strong demand for fed cattle.

Compared to the previous month’s projection the ERS increased the five-area price by $1.26 in the third quarter to $189.26 and by $3 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186.18, which was $1.07 higher.

Projected prices for next year increased by $1 in the first quarter to $187. The projected annual 2025 price also increased by $1 to $187.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected beef production for this year by 205 million pounds to 27 billion pounds, which would be slightly more than last year. Next year’s projected beef production of 25.9 billion pounds would be 1.1 billion pounds less than this year’s estimated production (-4%).

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

Corn production for 2024/25was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from the previous month on an increase of 0.2 bushels in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Total use was raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks were cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

2024/25 U.S. soybean production was forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on a projected 0.1-bushel decline in yield to 53.1 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion. Ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month at 550 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 was unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices also were unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42¢ per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat was for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, which still would be 17% more than the previous year. The season average farm price was unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Thursday, with steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $186-$187/cwt. and steady in the North at $187. Dressed delivered prices are steady at $296.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 higher Thursday afternoon at $309.95/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $290.73.

Corn and soybean futures were lower Thursday with harvest pressure and more positive weather in South America. There was also likely positioning ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates due out on Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, pressured by readings of more inflation and employment weakness than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment.

On the labor front, for the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims was 33,000 more than the previous week at 258,000, the highest level since August 5.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 9 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.96 to $2.33 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports weakened toward the end of summer, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports in August totaled 102,682 metric tons (mt), down 6% from a year earlier and the lowest since January. Export value fell 4% to $845.9 million. Through the first eight months of the year, beef exports were 3% below last year at 856,834 mt but were 4% higher in value at just under $7 billion.

“Beef demand in our major Asian markets seemed to lose a bit of momentum in August, but exports held up well to Mexico, Taiwan and the Middle East,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The headwinds in Asia remain formidable, but we are encouraged by the region’s ongoing tourism rebound. The late-September removal of Colombia’s restrictions on U.S. beef is also a positive development. While this came too late to impact the August results, it will help bolster fourth-quarter demand in Latin America.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $391.19 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 1% from a year ago. The January-August average was $414.88 per head, up 5%.

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday, with overbought conditions and the lack of weekly cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few FOB live trades at $187/cwt., but too few to trend. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Southern Plains, $187 in Nebraska and $187-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.34 higher Wednesday afternoon at $308.18/cwt. Select was 2¢ higher at $288.63.

Turning to grains, toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 431 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 55¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday, supported again by recently stronger Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 54¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $187 and mostly steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $296 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $306.84/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $288.61.

Corn and soybean futures were lower Tuesday with harvest pressure and a more positive planting outlook for South America.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 15¢ to 19¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, supported by easing oil prices and stronger tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 259 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.52 to $3.54 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mostly extended gains Monday, supported by recently stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher with the strongest support at the back half of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 higher across a broad range, except for an average of 49¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $187 and mostly steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $296 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.35 higher Monday afternoon at $305.93/cwt. Select was $1.72 higher at $289.33.

Corn and wheat futures added apparent risk premium Monday. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices basically gave back the previous session’s strong gains Monday, under pressure from spiking oil prices and bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 55 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 213 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.72 to $2.91 higher through the front six contracts.

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Approximately half of the winter wheat crop was planted as of October. 6, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report with 51% in the ground, which was 1% behind last year and the five-year average.

However, planting is running well behind in key states like Oklahoma.

“Opportunities for wheat grazing are slipping aways quickly,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “At the end of September, wheat planting in Oklahoma was 22%, compared to a 32% average for the previous five years. Some wheat has been dusted into dry soil to await moisture. Some wheat is up but stands are small and not growing much due to the lack of moisture.” The latest Crop Progress reports pegs Oklahoma planting at 32% versus 43% a year earlier and 46% for average.

As for other crops, 30% of corn was harvested, which was 1% less than a year earlier but 3% more than average. Sixty-four percent was rated as Good (49%) or Excellent (15%) compared to 53% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 47% of soybeans were harvested, which was 10% more than a year earlier and 13% more than average. Sixty-three percent were rated as Good (51%) or Excellent (12%) versus 51% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by more bullish outside markets, indications of stronger cash trade and perhaps added confidence from the resolution to the dock strikes, at least for now.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher (45¢ to $2.25 higher). Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.97 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.78 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $186/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week FOB Live prices were mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.78 higher Friday afternoon at $302.58/cwt. Select was $4.32 higher at $287.61.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 1,000 head fewer than the previous week and 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.9 million head was 950,000 head fewer (-3.8%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 20.2 billion pounds was 150.1 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower again Friday with harvest pressure.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by a monthly jobs report that far exceeded expectations.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 13¢ to $35.36.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 341 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 51 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 219 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 1¢ to 67¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded mainly steady to higher at last week’s auctions monitored by Cattle Current, supported by stronger Cattle futures.

Overall, though, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes there are several factors working against calf prices currently.

“There are a few factors working against calf prices at the moment,”

“The first is clearly the seasonal trend associated with a large number of calves being weaned and marketed during the fall months,” Griffith explains, in his weekly market comments. “The second is the increased incidence of morbidity and mortality associated with the drastic temperature swings that will soon come into play. Third is the widespread drought conditions in many parts of the country.”

Approximately 70% of the continental United States is experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions, according to the current U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s 12% more than a year ago.

Conversely, Griffith notes competition for declining calf supplies will add price support.

“It will not just be stocker producers and backgrounding operations competing for these animals. There will be feedlots looking to place calves on feed at lighter weights as they look to fill pens,” Griffith explains. “With the decline in feed prices and reduced availability of yearling cattle, feedlot managers will be looking for a way to fill the pens and keep them filled for a longer period of time.”

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for an average of 66¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $299.80/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $268.78.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Sept. 26 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday, likely pressured by producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday as crude oil prices continued to climb on worries about disruptions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.93 to $3.57 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with expanding open interest from fund buying.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.00 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $299.81/cwt. Select was $1.37 lower at $283.93.

Grain futures closed higher Wednesday, led by wheat with weather and war premium.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 17¢ to 19¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed slightly higher Wednesday as investors digested the Middle East conflict and the U.S. port strike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.18 through the front six contracts. 

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Feed grain remains 18-24% lower than last year, allowing feedlots to continue holding cattle longer to increase fed weights, according to Hannah Baker, Extension beef cattle and forage economist at the University of Florida.

“Average steer dressed weights reached 925 pounds as of September 1, almost 3% heavier than year-ago levels and 4% higher than the historical average,” Baker explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The percentage of cattle grading Choice has also increased by 3.5% since last year and by 2% compared to the 2018-2022 average.”

Further, Baker notes that while current price trends are similar to those in 2015 during the same period, herd expansion had already begun.

“There was no incentive for prices to climb back up after the typical dip in the fall,” Baker explains. “In the current market, we have not seeing signs of stabilization, much less expansion, and have already hit record prices that we saw back in 2015. This indicates that while we are experiencing some seasonality this year, it is not expected that we are headed for a continuous low level of cattle prices.”

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $300.17/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $285.30.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher, except for unchanged in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower, except for unchanged at either end of the board, pressured by another day of higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 278 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.06 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict. 

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Declining income expectations pushed the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest readings since March 2016. Farmer sentiment fell 12 points month to month to 88. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76.

“The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “It’s notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the U.S. farm economy was in the early stages of an economic downturn. In addition to commodity prices and input costs weighing heavily on their operations, producers are also facing considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead for their farms with the possible government policy changes following the upcoming 2024 elections.”

When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with 34% of farmers citing input prices and 33% pointing to lower output prices as their primary concerns. Interest rates trailed behind as a top concern for 17% of respondents. Producers’ apprehensions about commodity prices matched up with their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports; only 26% of respondents expect exports to rise over the next five years, the most pessimistic response to this question since it was first introduced in 2019. Additionally, 78% of producers expressed concern that government policy changes following the fall 2024 elections could impact their farms.

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.14 higher week to week at $186.15/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was $3.12 higher at $293.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Monday afternoon at $298.08/cwt. Select was $2.45 higher at $284.53.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed were an average of 38¢ higher with follow-through support from last week’s higher cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower except for 17¢ higher at the back with pressure from higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher, buoyed by the neutral to friendly Grain Stocks report and likely quarter-end short covering. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ lower on an improved South American weather outlook.  

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 69 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef cow numbers when 2025 begins will likely be less year over year with limited potential to expand until the following year, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

Although year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 16.3% less so far this year, Peel explains in his weekly market comments, “The rate of beef cow slaughter in 2024, although sharply lower year over year, is not down enough to offset the small bred beef heifer inventory at the beginning of the year. The beef cow herd is likely down year over year in 2024.”

Peel adds the 12-month moving average of the heifer slaughter percentage of total cattle slaughter has yet to decrease.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the north to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $296.69/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $282.08.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 612,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week and the same as the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.3 million head was 938,000 fewer (-3.9%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 19.7 billion pounds was 163.9 million pounds less (-0.8%).

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher except for 47¢ lower at the back.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Friday, ahead of Monday’s Grain Stocks report and perhaps with some month- and quarter-end squaring.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 24¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 12¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, amid ongoing bullishness about easing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 37¢ to 51¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Retail beef prices continue at record-high levels with the August all fresh beef price at $8.155 per pound and the August Choice beef price at $8.525 per pound, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee.

Griffith explains in his weekly market comments that strong consumer demand, reduced beef production and easing inflation are helping drive prices higher.

“Similar to beef, poultry and pork prices remain elevated. The retail price of pork for August was $4.899 per pound compared to its record high of $5.047 in October 2022. The retail broiler price for August was $1.988 compared to its record high price of $2.013 in May of this year,” Griffith says.

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Cattle futures gained Thursday with higher cash fed cattle prices.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average 39¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB Live prices were $2 higher at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices in the north were $184-$185 and dressed delivered prices were $290-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 lower Thursday afternoon at $296.37/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $282.37.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely farmer selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by positive economic news including fewer initial weekly uninsurance claims than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mixed but mostly higher Tuesday, supported by recently firmer wholesale beef prices stemming from slower packer production.

Recently firm and higher wholesale beef prices, as packers slow production, helped Cattle futures mostly extend gains Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of an average of 26¢ higher, except for an average of 3¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for an average of 6¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $184-$185 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $290-$292 in Nebraska and $290 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 8¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $301.89/cwt. Select was 92¢ lower at $286.87.

Grain and soybean futures closed mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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`Major U.S. financial continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 100 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 33¢ to 63¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Lower commodity prices and higher input costs continue weighing on rural economies, according to the latest Creighton University Rural Main Street Index, which represents a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Across the region, bankers expect approximately 39.1% of farmers to experience negative 2024 farm income. 

The region’s overall reading for September sank for the 13^th consecutive month to 37.5 in September from 40.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business says weaker agricultural equipment sales also weighed on the overall index.

The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7 but remained below growth neutral for the 14^th consecutive month.

“Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss explains.

The region’s farmland price index remained below growth neutral for the fourth consecutive month. It declined to 43.8 in September from 45.5 in August. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 5.3% in the next 12 months.

“Of greater concern, approximately one-fourth of bankers anticipate a 10% to 20% downturn in farmland prices over the next year,” Goss says.

Cattle futures furthered gains Monday with follow-through support from last week, as well as the neutral Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of an average of 88¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt. and $1-$2 higher in the North at $184-$185. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $290-$292 and from $2 higher to $4 lower in the western Corn belt at $290 in a light test.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.90 higher at $184.01. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 20¢ lower at $290.41.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 higher Monday afternoon at $301.81/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $287.79.

Soybeans rallied Monday, boosted by thoughts that China’s easing monetary policy would spur demand. Corn and wheat followed with added support from South American weather worries.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 24¢ to 27¢ higher. Corn futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial edged higher Monday with follow-through support from the previous week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 19¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef production continues remarkably close to last year’s levels with significantly fewer cattle as feedlots ratchet up carcass weights with longer feeding periods.

“Current weekly steer carcass weights are 941 lbs., up 24 lbs. year over year.  Steer carcass weights have averaged 23 pounds heavier for the year to date,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Heifer carcasses are currently 846 lbs., up 21 lbs. from one year ago, with a year-to-date average 19 lbs. above last year.”

As for time on feed, referencing Kansas Focus on Feedlots data, Peel says the current 12-month moving average days on feed for steers at 204 days continues to inch higher at 194 days. 

“Increased days on feed means a slower feedlot turnover rate and helps feedlot maintain the inventory level despite a reduce throughput,” Peel explains.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, spurred along by higher cash fed cattle prices.  

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher across a wide range, from 5¢ higher at the back to $2.50 higher in spot Oct, except for 10¢ lower in away Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures were mixed Friday, closing from an average of 37¢ higher in five contracts to an average of 48¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.92 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon with FOB live prices $2 higher at $183/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade and demand were moderate in Kansas with FOB live prices $2-$3 higher at $183.

Trade and demand were moderate in the North. FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$185. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $290-$292. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $288-$294 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ higher Friday afternoon at $300.19/cwt. Select was 33¢ higher at $288.59.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 610,000 head was 10,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the previous year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 22.7 million head was 943,000 head fewer (-4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.1 billion pounds was 192.9 million pounds less (-1%).

Harvest pressure continued to weigh on grain futures Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed, retaining the week’s sharp gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 3¢ to 18¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as plumb neutral.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, August placements of 1.98 million head were 28,000 head fewer (-1.4%) year over year, which was in line with expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 35% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 47% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.82 million head were 67,000 head fewer (-3.6%) than the prior year, also in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.2 million head were 71,000 head more (+0.6%) year over year, which was also in line with estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle futures bounced higher Thursday with support from bullish outside markets and perhaps with some positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Thursday afternoon at $299.56/cwt. Select was $1.49 lower at $288.26.

Net 2024 U.S. beef export sales of 15,500 metric tons for the week ending Sept. 12 were 36% more than the previous week and 2% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Japan, Canada and Mexico.

Harvest pressure and anemic export sales weighed on grain futures Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, fueled by the previous day’s interest rate cut by the Fed and fewer weekly initial unemployment claims than expected.

For the week ending September 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 522 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 93 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 440 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

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Forecasters estimate a 71% chance of a short-lived La Niña emerging during September-November and persisting through January-March 2025, according to the latest update from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

In the meantime, dryness continues to expand across the nation, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

Abnormally dry or drought conditions encompassed 70.3% of the continental U.S. compared to 55.6% at the same time last year. However, moderate to exceptional drought existed in 35.6% of the nation versus 37.8% a year earlier. Overall, 35% of the nation’s cattle were in drought areas compared to 45% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday as traders waited for weekly cash direction.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ higher, except for unchanged and 32¢ lower on either end of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for an average of 9¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.53 lower Wednesday afternoon at $301.38/cwt. Select was $2.47 lower at $289.75.

Heading toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Grain futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts. Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher, supported by early reports of lower yields than expected.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, following a volatile trading session tied to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% rather than the widely anticipated reduction of 0.25%.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated,” according to the FOMC statement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 103 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 54 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 61¢ to 75¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Based on recent price weakness, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) slashed expected average feeder steer prices for the remainder of this year in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month’s projections, ERS reduced the forecast third-quarter price by $9 to $252/cwt. and the fourth-quarter price by $13 to $255 for an annual average price of $251, which was $5.50 lower. The prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts explain the average August price at Oklahoma National Stockyards was $15.78/cwt. less than the prior month and represented the first year-over-year decline since February 2021.

For next year, ERS reduced the forecast first-quarter price by $3 to $248 and the second-quarter price by $5 to $254 for an annual average price of $254, which was $5 less than the previous month’s projection.

As mentioned in Cattle Current recently, the ERS lowered expected five-area direct fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Forecast prices were lowered by $3 in the third quarter to $188/cwt. and by $7 in the fourth quarter to $183 for an annual average of $185.11, which was $3 lower than the previous month’s estimate. Projected prices were lowered in the first quarter next year by $3 to $186 and by $4 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186, which was $5 lower.

Cattle futures gained Tuesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.80 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $180-$181 in Kansas, $181-$182 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 66¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $303.91/cwt. Select was 8¢ higher at $292.22.

Heading toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, grain futures were narrowly changed. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled little changed Tuesday, ahead of this week’s Fed decision regarding interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 97¢ to $1.19 higher through the front six contracts.

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Judging by history, U.S. beef cow herd contraction could continue for another year or two, according to Rob Ziegler Extension livestock production and marketing specialist at the University of Wyoming.

“Beef cow slaughter peaked in 2011 at 3.9 million head, roughly midway through the last contraction phase, which ended in 2014 when expansion began,” Ziegler explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Slaughter bottomed out in 2015 at 2.2 million head and started increasing again in 2016. Another peak in cow slaughter was observed in 2022 at nearly 4 million head. In 2023, cow slaughter declined by 12% compared to 2022. From January through August 2023, 2.2 million head of beef cows were slaughtered, compared to 1.9 million head during the same period in 2024.”

Given that 35% of annual cow slaughter occurs, historically, between September and December, Ziegler says it appears total cow slaughter in 2024 will be less year over year at around 2.9 million head. If so, it would the second consecutive year of reduced beef cow slaughter.

Even though market dynamics suggest potential herd rebuilding in the next 1-2 years, Ziegler also points to the different situation faced today than during the last expansion.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs in recent years have negatively impacted income per cow,” Ziegler says. “The question remains whether these margins will be sufficient to encourage expansion within that timeframe. While the drought in 2024 has been more regional, some heifer retention may be correlated with these areas. That said, heifers retained this year will not contribute to the feeder cattle supply for approximately two more years. These factors suggest that the expansion phase may unfold more slowly than it did in 2014.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday, with Live Cattle edging lower and Feeder Cattle mostly eking out gains.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher, except for unchanged and 32¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181, mostly steady in Nebraska at $181-$182 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $182-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $6 higher in Nebraska at $288-$294 and steady to $8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $288-$294.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 93¢ higher at $182.11/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered price was $3.07 higher at $290.61.

Grain futures were lower Monday amid the improved international weather outlook and potential profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 18¢ to 19¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Monday, ahead of this week’s Fed decision regarding interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 91 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.36 to $1.85 higher through the front six contracts.

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Resurgent drought in parts of the Southern Plains is reducing wheat pasture prospects and related calf demand.

In Oklahoma, for instance, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says very little wheat has been planted, or it has been dusted in hoping for rain.

“The start of winter grazing will be pushed back, and stocking rates will likely be reduced due to less available forage through the winter,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “The lack of wheat stocker demand and the beginning of the fall run of calves is putting pressure on cattle auction prices.” 

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday, ending a week of recovery.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 15¢ higher, except for unchanged to 37¢ lower in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.56 higher, gaining back a little more than what was lost the previous week. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.70 higher ($5.72 to $8.17 higher) during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181, mostly steady in Nebraska at $181-$182 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $182-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $6 higher in Nebraska at $288-$294 and $2-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $288-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.27 lower Friday afternoon at $304.91/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $294.17.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 620,000 head was 78,000 more than the previous holiday-shortened week, but 11,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 22.1 million head was 932,000 head fewer (-4.1%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 18.6 billion pounds was 204.1 million pounds less (-1.1%).

Corn futures faded the increased yield projections in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 297 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 114 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 32¢ to 51¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle futures rebounded last week, recovering a lion’s share of the previous week’s losses, bolstered in part by steady to higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices. However, Cattle futures have lost their previous lustre in the near term as cash prices drift below year-ago levels, albeit near historical highs.

“Feeder cattle prices have steadily declined for more than two months and now the calf market is taking both a hit from the bearish sentiment in the market and the seasonal price decline that comes in the fall months, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As the market pushes into October, the freshly weaned calf market will likely see further softening of prices as large temperature swings and dry dusty conditions tend to lead to increased weaning stress and thus a higher probability of respiratory issues.”

Cattle futures gained Thursday, supported by steady to higher cash prices and a late-day bounce in outside markets.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, Live FOB prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 18¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.18/cwt. Select was $1.26 higher at $295.64.

Corn futures faded the increased yield projections in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 7¢ higher in expiring spot Sep Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, with more optimism later in the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 174 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.46 to $1.87 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA lowered expected five-area direct fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Based on recent price weakness, forecast prices were lowered by $3 in the third quarter to $188/cwt. and by $7 in the fourth quarter to $183 for an annual average of $185.11, which was $3 lower than the previous month’s estimate. Projected prices were lowered in the first quarter next year by $3 to $186 and by $4 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186, which was $5 lower.

Forecast 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production was raised 59 million pounds (+0.2%) to 26.8 billion pounds on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year.

For 2025, beef production was raised 180 million pounds (+0.7%) to 25.6 billion pounds on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.4%) than this year’s estimated production.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 were 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks were reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.10 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with apparent optimism about the potential for higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 87¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $307.36/cwt. Select was $2.63 lower at $294.38.

Corn and Soybean futures edged higher in nearby contracts Wednesday, as traders prepared for Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and further indication of easing inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5% before seasonal adjustment, which was less than expected. However, core inflation, excluding food and fuel, was slightly higher than expected, up 0.3% month to month and 3.2% year over year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 369 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures hovered amid two-sided trading Tuesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 34¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 28¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $308.23/cwt. Select was $1.48 lower at $297.01.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by the yield outlook and weaker crude oil prices.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 20¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 141 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.89 to $2.45 lower through the front six contracts.

More bullish outside markets helped Cattle futures bounce back Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.91 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.87 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $180-$181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $180-$181 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.63 lower at $181.18/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.75 lower at $287.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 89¢ lower Monday afternoon at $308.52/cwt. Select was $2.36 higher at $298.49.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday with apparent short covering providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in spot Sep. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with investors apparently more bullish about the impact of potential interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 484 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 193 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 97¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions continued to lose ground last week with 29% rated Good (23%) or Excellent (6%), according to the USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 8. That was 4% less than the same time last year. On the other side of the scale, 39% was rated in Poor (24%) or Very Poor (15%) condition, the same as a year earlier.

As for row crops, 5% of corn was in the bin, which was 1% more than the same time last year and 25% more than the five-year average. 64% was in Good (48%) or Excellent (16%), compared to 52% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 65% of soybeans were rated as Good (52%) or Excellent (13%) versus 52% a year earlier.

Negative outside markets and softer cash fed cattle prices helped pressure Cattle futures again Friday. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.09 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.30 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $4 lower in Nebraska at $180 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon, at $309.41/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $296.12.

Estimated total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 542,000 was 69,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.4 million head was 926,000 head fewer (-4.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 18 billion pounds was 216.2 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday amid pressure from lower outside markets and wonderments about next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower. However, Corn futures closed an average of 6’2¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week on Friday. That’s an average of about 15¢ higher in those contracts over the past two weeks.

On Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by bearish labor news.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 month to month in August, which was less than expected. In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by

14¢ to $35.21.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 410 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 436 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.46 to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply month to month in August, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108.

“Weakness in the barometer and related indices provide a signal that farmers are concerned about the possibility of extended weakness in farm incomes, similar to what took place from 2015 to 2019,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

August’s survey results indicate a shift among farmers’ primary concerns, with 30% of respondents identifying lower commodity prices as their primary concern, compared to 33% who cited high input costs. At the same time last year, 20% pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern.

“Farmers have also become less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years,” Mintert says. “The percentage of farmers who think farmland values could decline within the upcoming year has been rising, which is consistent with the weak outlook for financial conditions. The weak capital investment index reading suggests farmers are going to pull back on capital expenditures.”

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31, matching its all-time low.

The latest survey was conducted from Aug. 12-16, 2024.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices in the South and skittish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.64 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.23 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live FOB prices were $181/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle and $1-$2 lower in Kansas.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 9¢ lower Thursday afternoon, at $311.51/cwt. Select was $2.61 lower at $296.78.

Grain futures softened Thursday with likely farmer selling. Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 219 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed from 5¢ lower to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Exports of U.S. beef continued to build momentum in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

July beef exports totaled 110,419 metric tons (mt), up 7% from a year ago and the second largest of 2024. Export value climbed 12% to $910.9 million, also the second highest this year. July growth was fueled primarily by strengthening demand in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and the Middle East and ASEAN regions.

For January through July, beef export value increased 6% from a year ago to $6.13 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (754,152 mt).

“It is very gratifying to see demand for U.S. beef trending upward in Asian markets, with Japan and Taiwan leading the way and an outstanding showing in the ASEAN region,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “U.S. beef has weathered severe headwinds in Asia and especially in Japan, but the outlook for the remainder of the year is encouraging. July was also another impressive month for Mexico, which continues to display excellent demand for an expanding range of U.S. beef cuts and variety meats.”

Pork export volume was 10% more year over year in July. Pork export value was 13% higher at $710.5 million, fueled in part by a record $244.5 million for leading market Mexico.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower, except for an average of 24¢ higher in three contracts, with pressure from early cash weakness in the South.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 lower, pressured by lower Live Cattle and higher Corn.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Kansas to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Kansas at $180/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183 in the Texas Panhandle, $182-$183 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 93¢ higher Wednesday afternoon, at $311.60/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $299.39.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to rally Wednesday with likely short covering and thoughts forecast yield increases might be less than expected.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 16¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices wavered near steady Wednesday, following the previous session’s selloff tied to manufacturing weakness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.03 lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef x dairy production continues to increase as dairy producers use sexed semen to produce more replacement dairy heifers and beef semen on the rest of their herds to add market value to terminal calves. However, the relative contribution of dairy to domestic beef production remains static, says Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“The dairy herd is relatively stable and has only varied by 130,000 head, or 1.4%, from maximum to minimum in the last 10 years,” Peel explains. “The dairy industry contributes an average of roughly 26% of the total U.S. calf crop each year. The contribution of the dairy industry to beef production does not change significantly year to year although the relative share of dairy in beef production increases slightly when the beef industry declines cyclically. Growth in production of beef x dairy crossbred calves does not represent any net additional production of cattle but rather a change in the genetic composition of dairy calf production.”

Peel points out beef x dairy calves are included in commonly available cattle inventory and beef production data.

“Beef x dairy calf production is not having much impact on total beef production and market prices beyond what is already considered in market analysis,” Peel says. “There are some impacts in specific meat markets because the beef cuts from beef x dairy carcasses may have access to markets previously closed to dairy beef.  Arguably, the biggest impact of beef x dairy production is the blurring of the historical demarcation between beef and dairy sectors in the U.S.”

Cattle futures gained Friday as traders closed their book for the week and month. Support included firmer wholesale beef values and positive outside markets.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 87¢ higher.

Cattle futures also gained week to week. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.96 higher (47¢ higher at the back to $3.27 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1 lower in Kansas at $182-$183, steady in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $183-$185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $288-$292. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $293-$295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 3,000 head more than the previous week but 20,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 20.9 million head was 910,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 17.6 billion pounds was 219.4 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Friday afternoon, at $309.34/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $295.82.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 8’6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘25 on Friday and then mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, with support including the monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index coming in line with expectations. The PCE rose 0.2% month to month in July and increased 2.5% year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 197 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.58 to $2.36 lower through the front six contracts.

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Current feedlot inventories mask the continued decline in the domestic feeder cattle inventory, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

This year’s projected total calf crop of 33.12 million head would be 3.22 million head less than the cyclical peak in 2018, according to Peel. He adds this year;s total would be the least since about 1941.

Although the recent USDA Cattle on feed report pegged the August inventory slightly higher year over year, Peel says the 12-month moving average of feedlot inventories peaked in September 2022.

“Total feedlot placements have decreased by 1.3% in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12-month period,” Peel says. “However, in the last year, average feedlot inventories have increased to 11.64 million head. Feedlot inventories have risen countercyclically due to continued feeding of heifers and increased days on feed. Feedlots have slowed the feedlot turnover rate enough to keep average monthly inventories higher despite fewer cattle entering feedlots.”

Cattle futures were lower Thursday, pressured by steady to weaker cash fed cattle prices and the recent decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.45 lower, except for $1 higher in expiring spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.28 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and steady at $184 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices are $1-$3 lower at $292.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 higher Thursday afternoon, at $308.66/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $296.19.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with traders apparently adding some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mainly 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with support including fewer week-to-week initial unemployment insurance claims.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Increased supplies, a strong dollar and several other factors have caused prices for many agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macroeconomy or policy, projected prices generally remain near current levels over the next five years,” according to the Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets from the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

“The cattle sector is the most important exception to the pattern of declining commodity prices,” according to FAPRI. “Past years of drought and low returns have resulted in a smaller U.S. beef cow herd, reducing beef production and pushing up prices for feeder and slaughter animals.”

FAPRI projects the U.S. beef cow herd declining to 28 million to begin 2025 and then growing slowly to 29.5 million in 2029.

Prices for steers (600-650 lbs., Oklahoma City) are projected at an average of $283.70/cwt. this year, rising to $289.65 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

FAPRI forecasts the five-area direct average fed steer price at $187.95 this year, rising to $191.52 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday with pressure including the lack of weekly cash direction and a sharp decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 44¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.68 lower Wednesday afternoon, at $307.29/cwt. Select was $2.62 lower at $297.63.

Grain futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher on apparent short covering. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 198 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.21 lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in August for the 12^thconsecutive month. The region’s overall reading for August sank to 40.9 from 41.3 in July. It was the lowest reading since November of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports weighed on the rural economy, according to Ernie Goss, , Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

“The sad part is that most of our farmers will lose money or just break even due to poor commodity prices,” explains Jim Eckert, CEO of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.

Bankers were asked to compare the current business environment in their area to that prior to Covid-19. Approximately 22.8% reported business conditions were worse while 18.2% indicated business conditions were improved compared to pre-Covid. The remaining 59.0% indicated conditions had barely changed.

Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August confidence index slumped to 27.3 from 28.3 in July.

Cattle futures mainly extended gains Tuesday with hopes the near bottom has been carved, supported by ongoing relative demand strength.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ higher, except for an average of 25¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 lower Tuesday afternoon, at $311.97/cwt. Select was 6¢ higher at $300.25.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday, with apparent recent producer selling and the cheaper U.S. dollar providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the upside Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.20 to $1.66 lower through the front six contracts.

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Compared to the previous quarterly report, USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service increased projected U.S. beef export value $300 million higher to $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2024 (FY24), driven by higher unit values and strong demand in Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan.

However, the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade forecast beef export value $1 billion less than this year to $8.4 billion in fiscal year 2025 (FY25), as lower U.S. production reduces exportable supplies. 

Overall FY25 livestock, poultry, and dairy exports were projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million from FY24, as the decline in beef exports is mostly offset by higher exports of pork, poultry, variety meats, and dairy products.

U.S. FY25 agricultural exports were forecast at $169.5 billion, down $4.0 billion from the revised forecast for FY24. This decline is primarily driven by lower unit values of soybeans, corn, and cotton, as well as lower volumes of beef.

For context, world per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 3.2% percent in calendar year 2024 (CY24) and continue at that pace through CY25.

“Much of the global economy sees easing inflation in goods and increasing wages supporting consumer spending,” according to the report. “However, global GDP growth is subdued by continued strong inflation for services and continuing tight monetary policy as many central banks wait on the United States before relaxing interest rates to avoid shocks to investment that could adversely affect exchange rates.”

U.S. GDP is expected to rise 2.7% in CY24 and then slow to 1.9% percent in CY25 2025.

Cattle futures moved higher Monday, although many thought traders might see bearishness in more placements than expected in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $6 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 lower in Nebraska at $293-$295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.60 lower at $185.54/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 lower at $293.93.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.44 lower Monday afternoon, at $315.90/cwt. Select was 27¢ lower at $300.19.

Grain futures were mixed Monday. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with follow-through support from expected interest rate cuts but pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 152 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.28 to $2.25 higher through the front six contracts.

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Inventory-based fed cattle supplies appear rather bearish through the third quarter and then bullish, according to Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“The weakening feed grain market through this spring and summer incentivized feedlots to grow larger animals – costs of gain were dropping, and prices remained strong. And feedlots responded,” Koontz says. He explains the inventory of cattle on feed more than 150 days was modestly lower July but still more than the prior four years. He adds cattle on feed more than 120 days was sharply lower.

Referencing the recent Cattle on Feed report, Koontz also notes July feedlot placements of 1.70 million head — on the top side of expectations — points to market bullishness down the road.

“The number suggests early placement of animals from regions with drought-pressured forage, and perhaps tighter numbers later into the fall,” Koontz says. “Thus, the heavy placements are actually a bit bullish. The futures for feeder cattle reacted strongly with up moves on the fall run contracts.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday as traders waited the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which will likely be viewed as neutral to slightly bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 29¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 49¢ higher in the front three contracts to an average of 62¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 lower (22¢ to $2.92 lower). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 lower week to week (20¢ to $3.37 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 higher Friday afternoon, at $317.34/cwt. Select was $1.57 lower at $300.46.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 608,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week, but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 20.3 million head was 893,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (-1.3%).

Grain futures continued to leak lower Friday, while Soybean futures gained on increasing export demand.

Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher. Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then unchanged to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, pointing to interest rate cuts.

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” according to Powell, who was speaking at the closely watched economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

“Four and a half years after COVID-19’s arrival, the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading,” Powell explained. “Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 462 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 258 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected. Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in July, which was 94,000 head more (+5.8%) than the previous year, about 2% more than the average of analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 38% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.9 million head were 133,000 head more (+7.7%) year over year, but 0.5% less than expectations.

Cattle on Feed Aug. 1 of 11.1 million head were 31,000 head more (+0.3%) more than the previous year, which was in line with expectations.

Short covering on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report appeared to be the main driver of firming Cattle Futures. Heading into the close Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.22 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 78¢ higher Thursday afternoon, at $315.99/cwt. Select was 95¢ higher at $302.03.

Grain and soybean futures were lower Thursday pressured by positive weather and yield estimates.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly were 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 18¢ to 22¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by tech stocks and rising treasury bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 177 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 299 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to $1.05 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the expected third-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $2 to $261/cwt. in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. That was based on recent price weakness. This year’s projected average also declined by $2 to $256.50. However, the estimated fourth-quarter average price of $268 was unchanged, as was next year’s projected average of $262.50.

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current USDA increased the projected the average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday, supported by positive outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.88/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $300.50/cwt.

Toward the close on Wednesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices maintained their strength Wednesday, supported one again by a tamer than expected inflation reading.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after declining 0.1% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were slightly higher through the front six contracts.

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Calf numbers will be relatively tight this fall, and likely expensive, especially if there is wheat pasture to keep stocker demand strong, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Plus, Peel explains feedlot cost of gain has declined and will likely decline further, giving feedlots wider berth to compete for stocker cattle amid limited supplies.

“Feedlots are expected to place some feeder cattle that are lighter weight than usual as they attempt to maintain feedlot inventories. In the current market environment, prices across the spectrum of feeder cattle prices by weight generally suggest that stocker producers are increasingly relegated to the small end of feeder cattle. The basic signal is for stocker producers to purchase lighter cattle and turn them over more quickly,” Peel says. “In general, the market signals are to move limited feeder cattle supplies through the system more intensively to keep beef production as high as possible with fewer cattle. This does not mean that other stocker programs, e.g. owning cattle longer and putting on more weight, will not work but will require careful planning at the outset.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, supported by positive outside markets and firmer wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.93/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $300.61/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather and the outlook for high yields, in tandem with anemic export demand.

Toward the close on Tuesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Tuesday, supported by less wholesale price inflation than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 90 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 407 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 27¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were unable to extend gains from the previous session, apparently pressured once again, in part by demand concerns.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt. and mostly $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$187, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.11 lower at $191.34. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.59 lower at $304.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 higher Monday afternoon at $315.83/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $300.17/cwt.

Turning toward the close on Monday, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher with support from lower than expected carryover in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Through Jly ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mainly narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.71 to $2.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area average direct fed steer prices for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Other WASDE Highlights

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a decline in harvested area of 700,000 acres was more than offset by increased yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of 183.1 bushels per acre would be a record-high and was 2.1 bushels more than the previous month’s projection.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.20 per bushel.