Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures gained Thursday, supported by steady to higher cash prices and a late-day bounce in outside markets.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, Live FOB prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $180-$181.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 18¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.18/cwt. Select was $1.26 higher at $295.64.

Corn futures faded the increased yield projections in Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 7¢ higher in expiring spot Sep Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, with more optimism later in the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 174 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.46 to $1.87 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA lowered expected five-area direct fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Based on recent price weakness, forecast prices were lowered by $3 in the third quarter to $188/cwt. and by $7 in the fourth quarter to $183 for an annual average of $185.11, which was $3 lower than the previous month’s estimate. Projected prices were lowered in the first quarter next year by $3 to $186 and by $4 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186, which was $5 lower.

Forecast 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production was raised 59 million pounds (+0.2%) to 26.8 billion pounds on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year.

For 2025, beef production was raised 180 million pounds (+0.7%) to 25.6 billion pounds on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.4%) than this year’s estimated production.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 were 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks were reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.10 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with apparent optimism about the potential for higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 87¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $307.36/cwt. Select was $2.63 lower at $294.38.

Corn and Soybean futures edged higher in nearby contracts Wednesday, as traders prepared for Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and further indication of easing inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5% before seasonal adjustment, which was less than expected. However, core inflation, excluding food and fuel, was slightly higher than expected, up 0.3% month to month and 3.2% year over year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 369 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures hovered amid two-sided trading Tuesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 34¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 28¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $180-$181/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $181 in Kansas, $180-$181 in Nebraska and $180-$183 in the western Corn Belt

Dressed delivered prices were $288 in Nebraska and $286-$288 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $308.23/cwt. Select was $1.48 lower at $297.01.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by the yield outlook and weaker crude oil prices.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 20¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 141 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.89 to $2.45 lower through the front six contracts.

More bullish outside markets helped Cattle futures bounce back Monday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.91 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.87 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, Live FOB prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $180-$181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $180-$181 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.63 lower at $181.18/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.75 lower at $287.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 89¢ lower Monday afternoon at $308.52/cwt. Select was $2.36 higher at $298.49.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday with apparent short covering providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in spot Sep. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with investors apparently more bullish about the impact of potential interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 484 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 193 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 97¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Pasture and range conditions continued to lose ground last week with 29% rated Good (23%) or Excellent (6%), according to the USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 8. That was 4% less than the same time last year. On the other side of the scale, 39% was rated in Poor (24%) or Very Poor (15%) condition, the same as a year earlier.

As for row crops, 5% of corn was in the bin, which was 1% more than the same time last year and 25% more than the five-year average. 64% was in Good (48%) or Excellent (16%), compared to 52% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 65% of soybeans were rated as Good (52%) or Excellent (13%) versus 52% a year earlier.

Negative outside markets and softer cash fed cattle prices helped pressure Cattle futures again Friday. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.09 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.30 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $4 lower in Nebraska at $180 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon, at $309.41/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $296.12.

Estimated total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 542,000 was 69,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.4 million head was 926,000 head fewer (-4.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 18 billion pounds was 216.2 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday amid pressure from lower outside markets and wonderments about next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower. However, Corn futures closed an average of 6’2¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week on Friday. That’s an average of about 15¢ higher in those contracts over the past two weeks.

On Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 19¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by bearish labor news.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 month to month in August, which was less than expected. In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by

14¢ to $35.21.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 410 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 436 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.46 to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply month to month in August, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108.

“Weakness in the barometer and related indices provide a signal that farmers are concerned about the possibility of extended weakness in farm incomes, similar to what took place from 2015 to 2019,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

August’s survey results indicate a shift among farmers’ primary concerns, with 30% of respondents identifying lower commodity prices as their primary concern, compared to 33% who cited high input costs. At the same time last year, 20% pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern.

“Farmers have also become less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years,” Mintert says. “The percentage of farmers who think farmland values could decline within the upcoming year has been rising, which is consistent with the weak outlook for financial conditions. The weak capital investment index reading suggests farmers are going to pull back on capital expenditures.”

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31, matching its all-time low.

The latest survey was conducted from Aug. 12-16, 2024.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices in the South and skittish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.64 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.23 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live FOB prices were $181/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle and $1-$2 lower in Kansas.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 9¢ lower Thursday afternoon, at $311.51/cwt. Select was $2.61 lower at $296.78.

Grain futures softened Thursday with likely farmer selling. Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 219 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed from 5¢ lower to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Exports of U.S. beef continued to build momentum in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

July beef exports totaled 110,419 metric tons (mt), up 7% from a year ago and the second largest of 2024. Export value climbed 12% to $910.9 million, also the second highest this year. July growth was fueled primarily by strengthening demand in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and the Middle East and ASEAN regions.

For January through July, beef export value increased 6% from a year ago to $6.13 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (754,152 mt).

“It is very gratifying to see demand for U.S. beef trending upward in Asian markets, with Japan and Taiwan leading the way and an outstanding showing in the ASEAN region,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “U.S. beef has weathered severe headwinds in Asia and especially in Japan, but the outlook for the remainder of the year is encouraging. July was also another impressive month for Mexico, which continues to display excellent demand for an expanding range of U.S. beef cuts and variety meats.”

Pork export volume was 10% more year over year in July. Pork export value was 13% higher at $710.5 million, fueled in part by a record $244.5 million for leading market Mexico.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower, except for an average of 24¢ higher in three contracts, with pressure from early cash weakness in the South.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 lower, pressured by lower Live Cattle and higher Corn.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Kansas to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Kansas at $180/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183 in the Texas Panhandle, $182-$183 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 93¢ higher Wednesday afternoon, at $311.60/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $299.39.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to rally Wednesday with likely short covering and thoughts forecast yield increases might be less than expected.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 16¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices wavered near steady Wednesday, following the previous session’s selloff tied to manufacturing weakness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.03 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Beef x dairy production continues to increase as dairy producers use sexed semen to produce more replacement dairy heifers and beef semen on the rest of their herds to add market value to terminal calves. However, the relative contribution of dairy to domestic beef production remains static, says Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“The dairy herd is relatively stable and has only varied by 130,000 head, or 1.4%, from maximum to minimum in the last 10 years,” Peel explains. “The dairy industry contributes an average of roughly 26% of the total U.S. calf crop each year. The contribution of the dairy industry to beef production does not change significantly year to year although the relative share of dairy in beef production increases slightly when the beef industry declines cyclically. Growth in production of beef x dairy crossbred calves does not represent any net additional production of cattle but rather a change in the genetic composition of dairy calf production.”

Peel points out beef x dairy calves are included in commonly available cattle inventory and beef production data.

“Beef x dairy calf production is not having much impact on total beef production and market prices beyond what is already considered in market analysis,” Peel says. “There are some impacts in specific meat markets because the beef cuts from beef x dairy carcasses may have access to markets previously closed to dairy beef.  Arguably, the biggest impact of beef x dairy production is the blurring of the historical demarcation between beef and dairy sectors in the U.S.”

Cattle futures gained Friday as traders closed their book for the week and month. Support included firmer wholesale beef values and positive outside markets.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 87¢ higher.

Cattle futures also gained week to week. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.96 higher (47¢ higher at the back to $3.27 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1 lower in Kansas at $182-$183, steady in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $183-$185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $288-$292. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $293-$295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 3,000 head more than the previous week but 20,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 20.9 million head was 910,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 17.6 billion pounds was 219.4 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Friday afternoon, at $309.34/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $295.82.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 8’6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘25 on Friday and then mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, with support including the monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index coming in line with expectations. The PCE rose 0.2% month to month in July and increased 2.5% year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 197 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.58 to $2.36 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Current feedlot inventories mask the continued decline in the domestic feeder cattle inventory, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

This year’s projected total calf crop of 33.12 million head would be 3.22 million head less than the cyclical peak in 2018, according to Peel. He adds this year;s total would be the least since about 1941.

Although the recent USDA Cattle on feed report pegged the August inventory slightly higher year over year, Peel says the 12-month moving average of feedlot inventories peaked in September 2022.

“Total feedlot placements have decreased by 1.3% in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12-month period,” Peel says. “However, in the last year, average feedlot inventories have increased to 11.64 million head. Feedlot inventories have risen countercyclically due to continued feeding of heifers and increased days on feed. Feedlots have slowed the feedlot turnover rate enough to keep average monthly inventories higher despite fewer cattle entering feedlots.”

Cattle futures were lower Thursday, pressured by steady to weaker cash fed cattle prices and the recent decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.45 lower, except for $1 higher in expiring spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.28 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and steady at $184 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices are $1-$3 lower at $292.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 higher Thursday afternoon, at $308.66/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $296.19.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with traders apparently adding some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mainly 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 14¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with support including fewer week-to-week initial unemployment insurance claims.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

“Increased supplies, a strong dollar and several other factors have caused prices for many agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macroeconomy or policy, projected prices generally remain near current levels over the next five years,” according to the Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets from the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

“The cattle sector is the most important exception to the pattern of declining commodity prices,” according to FAPRI. “Past years of drought and low returns have resulted in a smaller U.S. beef cow herd, reducing beef production and pushing up prices for feeder and slaughter animals.”

FAPRI projects the U.S. beef cow herd declining to 28 million to begin 2025 and then growing slowly to 29.5 million in 2029.

Prices for steers (600-650 lbs., Oklahoma City) are projected at an average of $283.70/cwt. this year, rising to $289.65 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

FAPRI forecasts the five-area direct average fed steer price at $187.95 this year, rising to $191.52 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday with pressure including the lack of weekly cash direction and a sharp decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 44¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.68 lower Wednesday afternoon, at $307.29/cwt. Select was $2.62 lower at $297.63.

Grain futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher on apparent short covering. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 198 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.21 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in August for the 12^thconsecutive month. The region’s overall reading for August sank to 40.9 from 41.3 in July. It was the lowest reading since November of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports weighed on the rural economy, according to Ernie Goss, , Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

“The sad part is that most of our farmers will lose money or just break even due to poor commodity prices,” explains Jim Eckert, CEO of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.

Bankers were asked to compare the current business environment in their area to that prior to Covid-19. Approximately 22.8% reported business conditions were worse while 18.2% indicated business conditions were improved compared to pre-Covid. The remaining 59.0% indicated conditions had barely changed.

Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August confidence index slumped to 27.3 from 28.3 in July.

Cattle futures mainly extended gains Tuesday with hopes the near bottom has been carved, supported by ongoing relative demand strength.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ higher, except for an average of 25¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 lower Tuesday afternoon, at $311.97/cwt. Select was 6¢ higher at $300.25.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday, with apparent recent producer selling and the cheaper U.S. dollar providing support.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the upside Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.20 to $1.66 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Compared to the previous quarterly report, USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service increased projected U.S. beef export value $300 million higher to $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2024 (FY24), driven by higher unit values and strong demand in Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan.

However, the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade forecast beef export value $1 billion less than this year to $8.4 billion in fiscal year 2025 (FY25), as lower U.S. production reduces exportable supplies. 

Overall FY25 livestock, poultry, and dairy exports were projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million from FY24, as the decline in beef exports is mostly offset by higher exports of pork, poultry, variety meats, and dairy products.

U.S. FY25 agricultural exports were forecast at $169.5 billion, down $4.0 billion from the revised forecast for FY24. This decline is primarily driven by lower unit values of soybeans, corn, and cotton, as well as lower volumes of beef.

For context, world per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 3.2% percent in calendar year 2024 (CY24) and continue at that pace through CY25.

“Much of the global economy sees easing inflation in goods and increasing wages supporting consumer spending,” according to the report. “However, global GDP growth is subdued by continued strong inflation for services and continuing tight monetary policy as many central banks wait on the United States before relaxing interest rates to avoid shocks to investment that could adversely affect exchange rates.”

U.S. GDP is expected to rise 2.7% in CY24 and then slow to 1.9% percent in CY25 2025.

Cattle futures moved higher Monday, although many thought traders might see bearishness in more placements than expected in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $6 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 lower in Nebraska at $293-$295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.60 lower at $185.54/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 lower at $293.93.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.44 lower Monday afternoon, at $315.90/cwt. Select was 27¢ lower at $300.19.

Grain futures were mixed Monday. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with follow-through support from expected interest rate cuts but pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 152 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.28 to $2.25 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Inventory-based fed cattle supplies appear rather bearish through the third quarter and then bullish, according to Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“The weakening feed grain market through this spring and summer incentivized feedlots to grow larger animals – costs of gain were dropping, and prices remained strong. And feedlots responded,” Koontz says. He explains the inventory of cattle on feed more than 150 days was modestly lower July but still more than the prior four years. He adds cattle on feed more than 120 days was sharply lower.

Referencing the recent Cattle on Feed report, Koontz also notes July feedlot placements of 1.70 million head — on the top side of expectations — points to market bullishness down the road.

“The number suggests early placement of animals from regions with drought-pressured forage, and perhaps tighter numbers later into the fall,” Koontz says. “Thus, the heavy placements are actually a bit bullish. The futures for feeder cattle reacted strongly with up moves on the fall run contracts.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday as traders waited the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which will likely be viewed as neutral to slightly bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 29¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 49¢ higher in the front three contracts to an average of 62¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 lower (22¢ to $2.92 lower). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 lower week to week (20¢ to $3.37 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 higher Friday afternoon, at $317.34/cwt. Select was $1.57 lower at $300.46.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 608,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week, but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 20.3 million head was 893,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (-1.3%).

Grain futures continued to leak lower Friday, while Soybean futures gained on increasing export demand.

Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher. Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then unchanged to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, pointing to interest rate cuts.

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” according to Powell, who was speaking at the closely watched economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

“Four and a half years after COVID-19’s arrival, the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading,” Powell explained. “Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 462 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 258 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.82 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Markets will likely view Friday’s Monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected. Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in July, which was 94,000 head more (+5.8%) than the previous year, about 2% more than the average of analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 38% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.9 million head were 133,000 head more (+7.7%) year over year, but 0.5% less than expectations.

Cattle on Feed Aug. 1 of 11.1 million head were 31,000 head more (+0.3%) more than the previous year, which was in line with expectations.

Short covering on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report appeared to be the main driver of firming Cattle Futures. Heading into the close Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.22 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 78¢ higher Thursday afternoon, at $315.99/cwt. Select was 95¢ higher at $302.03.

Grain and soybean futures were lower Thursday pressured by positive weather and yield estimates.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly were 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 18¢ to 22¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by tech stocks and rising treasury bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 177 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 299 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to $1.05 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the expected third-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $2 to $261/cwt. in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. That was based on recent price weakness. This year’s projected average also declined by $2 to $256.50. However, the estimated fourth-quarter average price of $268 was unchanged, as was next year’s projected average of $262.50.

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current USDA increased the projected the average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday, supported by positive outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.88/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $300.50/cwt.

Toward the close on Wednesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices maintained their strength Wednesday, supported one again by a tamer than expected inflation reading.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after declining 0.1% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were slightly higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Calf numbers will be relatively tight this fall, and likely expensive, especially if there is wheat pasture to keep stocker demand strong, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Plus, Peel explains feedlot cost of gain has declined and will likely decline further, giving feedlots wider berth to compete for stocker cattle amid limited supplies.

“Feedlots are expected to place some feeder cattle that are lighter weight than usual as they attempt to maintain feedlot inventories. In the current market environment, prices across the spectrum of feeder cattle prices by weight generally suggest that stocker producers are increasingly relegated to the small end of feeder cattle. The basic signal is for stocker producers to purchase lighter cattle and turn them over more quickly,” Peel says. “In general, the market signals are to move limited feeder cattle supplies through the system more intensively to keep beef production as high as possible with fewer cattle. This does not mean that other stocker programs, e.g. owning cattle longer and putting on more weight, will not work but will require careful planning at the outset.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, supported by positive outside markets and firmer wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.93/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $300.61/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather and the outlook for high yields, in tandem with anemic export demand.

Toward the close on Tuesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Tuesday, supported by less wholesale price inflation than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 90 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 407 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 27¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were unable to extend gains from the previous session, apparently pressured once again, in part by demand concerns.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt. and mostly $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$187, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.11 lower at $191.34. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.59 lower at $304.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 higher Monday afternoon at $315.83/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $300.17/cwt.

Turning toward the close on Monday, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher with support from lower than expected carryover in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Through Jly ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ to 16¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices were mainly narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.71 to $2.82 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area average direct fed steer prices for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Other WASDE Highlights

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a decline in harvested area of 700,000 acres was more than offset by increased yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of 183.1 bushels per acre would be a record-high and was 2.1 bushels more than the previous month’s projection.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.20 per bushel.

Cattle futures closed higher with week-end positioning and positive outside markets but were lower week to week, unable to recover from the early-week meltdown.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.92 higher (77¢ to $3.12 higher). However, they were an average of about $2.44 lower week to week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.77 higher Friday but were an average of $6.22 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices were $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $312.71/cwt. Select was 56¢ higher at $298.59/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures continued lower Friday ahead of Monday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates with many expecting increased yields.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices continued to rebound Friday from the steep early-week selloff, buoyed by a positive employment reading.

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims were less than expected at 233,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 51 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 85 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 47¢ to 65¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Beef continues to flex its muscle as consumers’ animal protein of choice, given demand at historically high retail prices.

“In June, the Choice retail price of beef was $8.12 per pound which was 2¢ lower than June 2023. The all-fresh retail price of beef was $8.00 per pound, which was 42¢ more than June 2023,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is clear consumers want and demand beef, but competing meat prices also play a role in what consumers do.”

For instance, Griffith explains the retail pork price in June was 20¢ higher year over year at $4.88 per pound and the retail broiler price was 5¢ higher at $2.01 per pound.

“Given price relativity, the all-fresh retail price of beef is up 5.6% while the pork price only increased 4.2% over the same time period,” Griffith says. “Consumers will consider this price relativity when making purchasing decisions, but it is clear beef is the preferred meat protein.”

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and softening wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited or light on moderate demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. Dressed delivered prices are $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $298.03/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were lower again Thursday with pressure from bullish production weather.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, as investors continued adjusting to the early-week selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 683 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 119 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 464 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 89¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

June exports of U.S. beef reached the highest value in nearly two years, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 110,155 metric tons (mt) in June, down 4% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024. Export value reached $938.3 million, up 3% year-over-year and the highest since August 2022. Through the first half of the year, beef export value climbed 5% from a year ago to $5.22 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (643,733 mt).

“June beef exports performed very well in Japan, which was great to see given the significant headwinds U.S. beef has faced there this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Export value also rebounded nicely in Korea and shipments to Taiwan and Canada were outstanding. This made for another strong month in terms of export value per head slaughtered, which was nearly $460 in June.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $459.21 per head of fed slaughter in June, up 13% from a year ago. The January-June average of $418.37 per head was 6% more than the first half of 2023.

June U.S. pork exports totaled 224,392 mt, down 9% from a year ago and the lowest since September, while export value fell 5% to $659.7 million. However, January-June volume was 3% more than the first half of 2023, while export value increased 5% to $4.26 billion.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193/cwt. and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. There were a few trades in Kansas at $190.50 but too few to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188 in the Texas Panhandle and $188-$195 in Kansas. Dressed delivered prices were $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.96 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.85/cwt. Select was 79¢ lower at $298.83/cwt.

Cattle futures continued to grind for support from the recent selloff Wednesday as early cash fed cattle prices eroded.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher, except for an average of 4¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 88¢ lower.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure from promising yields. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are due out Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ lower.    

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 234 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 40 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 171 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.51 to $2.27 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures tried for gains early in Tuesday’s session, in the wake of the recent selloff but ended mainly slightly lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 32¢ lower except for an average of 33¢ higher in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 36¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher at the back.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $187-$195 in Kansas, $196 in Nebraska and $194-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.81/cwt. Select was 44¢ lower at $299.62.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 17¢ lower.   

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday amid a relief rally from steep declines during the last three sessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 166 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

******************************

Agricultural producer sentiment improved in July despite financial performance concerns, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index rose 8 points to 113, the Index of Current Conditions increased by 10 points to 100, and the Index of Future Expectations rose 7 points to 119 from a month earlier.

“Declines in crop prices point to lower producer incomes this year, so the increase in optimism was somewhat puzzling,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Fewer producers citing rising interest rates as a primary concern for the upcoming year corresponds with the modest improvement in their perspectives on capital investments, but respondents continue to express hesitancy to make large investments.”

High input costs remained the primary concern for a majority of respondents, followed by the risk of lower crop and livestock prices.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from July 15-19.

Cattle futures sank lower again Monday, tracing the selloff in outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of $6.57 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 76¢ lower last week at $194.45/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.74 lower at $309.60.

Wholesale beef prices did rebound Monday, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $4.17 higher in the afternoon at $317.94/cwt. Select was 85¢ higher at $282.34.

Grain and soybean futures extended gains Monday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 11¢ to 15¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower again Monday with continued recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,033 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 160 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 576 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Despite the smallest beef cow herd at the beginning of this year since 1961 and record cattle prices the last couple of years, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says there continues to be little indication of herd expansion.

“Beef cow slaughter is sharply lower, down nearly 16% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “However, that level of beef cow slaughter, combined with the low beef replacement heifer inventory in 2024 implies that the beef cow herd continues to liquidate by another 0.5-1.0% in 2024. Beef cow slaughter would have to drop by roughly 22% year over year to avoid additional liquidation this year.”

Moreover, Peel notes beef replacement heifer inventories in recent years mean that there is no pipeline or momentum for herd expansion compared to previous expansions. He adds the threat of continuing or redeveloping drought is stalling rebuilding efforts.

“The beef cattle industry is smaller than needed and signals for rebuilding will continue and grow in coming months. However, herd rebuilding is likely to be slow to start and proceed quite slowly initially,” Peel says.

Cattle futures continued to carve a sharp path lower Friday, as equity markets unwound with growing concerns of recession.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed average of $4.15 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $297.17/cwt.

Short covering on profit taking earlier in the week helped Grain and Soybean futures close higher Friday. Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices continued sharply lower amid recession fears.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly less than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8¢ in July to $35.07. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 100 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 417 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.79 to $2.81 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Overall, domestic consumer beef demand remains strong, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his latest weekly market comments.

“The late summer and early fall will give the market an idea if consumers are going to continue spending discretionary dollars on beef at the elevated retail price level,” Griffith says. “Some would argue consumers are slowing down, but where they are getting that data is lost on me. That is not to say the market will not slow down, but at this point, I cannot point to the data that says it is.”

On the other side of the gate, Griffith notes the leverage feedlots are using to keep negotiated cash fed cattle prices propped higher despite seasonal tendencies.

“There will continue to be downside price risk the next two or three months, but such risk is beginning to look less daunting as time passes,” Griffith says. “There have certainly been a few hiccups that may strike a chord of fear, but it will dissipate. Cattle feeders have leverage and will maintain leverage due to reduced cattle availability.”

Cattle futures were sharply lower Thursday, weighed down by wobbly cash trade, technical selling, bearish outside markets and lower wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.97 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190 in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.98 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.79/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $297.46/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 17,700 metric tons (2024) the week ending July 25 were 32% more than the previous week and 35% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Mexico and China.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.  

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher on likely short covering. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices fell hard Thursday, pressured by investor worries about a potential recession.

Weekly initial unemployment claims were higher than expected at 249,000. As well, the ISM manufacturing index was lower than expected in July, pointing to further economic contraction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 405 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 68¢ to $1.02 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although beef cow slaughter is 16% less year over year through the first 28 weeks of the year, the rate of slaughter is comparable to last year, relative to beef cow inventories, says James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

“One reason for the large decrease in beef cow slaughter is we started with fewer beef cows this year,” Mitchell explains. “Through 28 weeks, beef cow slaughter reflects 5.5% and 6.4% of beef cow inventories in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Beef cow slaughter is down 294,000 head, but we started the year with 716,000 fewer beef cows compared to 2023.”

Mitchell adds that lower beef cow slaughter this year also reflects improved forage conditions and higher cattle prices.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 55¢ lower to an average of 29¢ higher with the most support in nearby months.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $314.77/cwt. Select was $1.22 lower at $300.16/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday.  

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday supported by doveish Fed comments suggesting interest rate cuts could be on the table in September as inflation moderates and economic growth slows.

The latest, closely watched ADP^® National Employment Report™ pointed to slowing job and wage growth. Private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in July, less than expected, and annual pay was up 4.8% year-over-year, according to the report.

“With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve’s effort to slow inflation,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “If inflation goes back up, it won’t be because of labor.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 85 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 451 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.90 to $3.76 higher through the front six contracts, supported by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

******************************

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the 11th consecutive month, according to the July survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Specifically, the region’s overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023. The June reading was 41.7.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports drove the decline, according to Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Among survey highlights:

• The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June’s 31.8. “This is the 12th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.
• On average, bankers expect farmland prices to drop by 3.4% over the next 12 months.
• Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July confidence index slumped to 28.3, its lowest level this year, and down from June’s 29.2.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed but mainly higher Tuesday.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 41¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 39¢ higher, except for 31¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 33¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $314.48/cwt. Select was 14¢ lower at $301.38/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with continued pressure from the favorable weather outlook.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 16¢ to 30¢ lower.   

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with the main pressure from tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 203 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 222 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 69¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

National pasture and range conditions continued on par year over year for the week ending July 28, according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress report, with 39% rated as Good (32%) or Excellent (7%). Likewise, 29% were rated as Poor (17%) or Very Poor (12%), which was the same as last year.

States with 45% or more of pasture in Poor or Very Poor condition included: New Mexico (50%), Oregon (49%), Virginia (64%), Washington (59%), West Virginia (65%) and Wyoming (57%).

“Drought in certain areas and improved conditions in other areas creates uncertainty to the feeder cattle and calf price outlook for this fall,” says Will Secor, Extension livestock economist at the University of Georgia, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “If drought incentivizes producers to bring more calves to market compared to normal, calf prices may see a more pronounced seasonal dip this fall in those areas, while still remaining high compared to recent history. However, in areas with good conditions, calf supplies may remain tight this fall, pushing prices higher than expected.”

Cattle futures stepped lower Monday with apparent technical selling.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.20 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.75 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1.50-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $190, $2 higher in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $196-$198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $312/cwt.

Last week’s weighted average five area direct FOB live steer price was $1.54 higher at $195.21/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.30 higher at $311.34.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.04 higher Monday afternoon at $314.81/cwt. Select was $4.06 higher at $301.52/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 12 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 91¢ to $1.28  lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although Choice boxed beef prices have declined seasonally by 5.4% since July 4, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University notes they are 3.4% higher year over year.

“Beef tenderloin is the highest value beef cut and the price has been quite flat and lower year over year for much of 2024,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “This weakness is a bit concerning but the fall may provide an important indicator of tenderloin demand going into cooler weather and the seasonal pick up in restaurant traffic. In contrast, the other steak cuts have values that are generally at or above year-ago levels, including ribeye, strip loin, and top sirloin.”

While the majority of Chuck products are currently priced on par with last year or less, Peel says overall Chuck primal values are 6.6% higher year over year in July and Round primal values are nearly 21% higher, driven by less lean trim derived from non-fed beef production. He notes non-fed beef production is down about 13% so far this year.

“The current wholesale price of 90% lean trimmings is at a record level,” Peel says. “The market is attempting to make up for the shortage of lean beef in the non-fed market by pulling more lean beef from fed beef supplies. This mostly comes from several round cuts but also likely from the chuck mock tender (one of the few lean cuts in the Chuck). Markets always attempt to balance supply and demand and the increased arbitrage between fed and non-fed beef markets today is an indication of a very unusual market situation.”

Cattle futures closed mixed to higher Friday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices and firmer wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from 13¢ lower to 28¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.13 higher with added support from lower Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1.50-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $190 and $2 higher in the North at $198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.31 higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was $2.35 higher at $297.46/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 600,000 head was 16,000 head more than the previous week but 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 17.9 million head was 833,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.1 billion pounds was 236.9 million pounds less (-1.5%).

Grain futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking, producer selling and a more favorable weather outlook.

Soybean futures closed 22¢ to 38¢ lower. Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by a favorable inflation reading.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% month to month in June was and was 2.5% higher year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was in line with expectations.

Between cooling inflation and stronger economic growth than expected, investors are growing more confident in interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 654 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 176 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 79¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Besides their ongoing willingness to pay for beef at historically high retail prices, consumers also continue demanding higher quality.

“This point has been demonstrated and made evident the past couple of months when Prime grade beef prices have increased week over week, when other quality grades of beef declined the same week or when Prime grade beef price only experienced a small price decline when other grades of beef experienced larger price declines,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “To some degree, packers purchasing higher grading cattle tends to be a natural insulation or insurance to price changes in wholesale beef prices. Prime beef prices will still tend to move in the same direction as other beef prices, but they do not appear to have the same downside risk as other grades in the current market. As a reference point, the Prime beef cutout has averaged trading $22/cwt. higher than the Choice cutout the past three months.”

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, supported by the prospects of steady to higher cash trade, as well as more favorable domestic economic growth than expected.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher across a wide range. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to inactive on very light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were som early live FOB sales in Kansas at $190/cwt.

Last week, live FOB prices were $188-$188.50 in the Texas Panhandle, 187-188 in Kansas and $196 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $312.46/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $295.11/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts Corn futures were mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 15¢ higher as traders applied more weather premium. However, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower on bullish harvest reports and anemic export sales.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with continued pressure from tech stocks but with support from more robust economic growth than expected.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter this year, according to the “advance” estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, and business investment. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 160 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 57¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Food price inflation is easing, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). Although retail food prices rose 0.9% during the first half of this year, it was significantly less than the year-over-year increase of 4.8% at the same time last year and the 1.9% average increase from 2003 to 2022.

“Compared with recent years, price growth slowed across categories partly because of economy-wide factors, such as reductions in supply chain congestion and softening consumer demand for goods, although price trends differ by food category,” ERS analysts say. “For example, prices for cereals and bakery products showed minimal growth since mid-2023, following strong price increases throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. In contrast, the midyear inflation rate for meats in 2024 exceeded its growth in the first half of 2023.”

Cattle futures were mostly lower Wednesday, pressured by bearish outside markets and the lack of weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower, except for unchanged to an average of 45¢ higher in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $188-$188.50/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, 187-188 in Kansas and $196 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $312.68/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $293.96/cwt.

Grain futures firmed Wednesday, while Soybean futures declined after recent gains.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally high to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 11¢ lower.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday, as investors bailed out of tech holdings, and bellwethers like Tesla and Alphabet posted sub-par earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 504 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 128 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 654 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.21 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.72 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were steady to 50¢ higher in the Texas Panhandle at $188-$188.50/cwt. steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $187-$188 and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 23¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.21/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $296.66/cwt.

Traders continued adding weather premium to Soybean futures Tuesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower.     

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.08 to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Inventories of cattle on-feed longer than 90 and 120 days are above historical averages for several reasons, according to Rob Ziegler, Extension livestock economist at the University of Wyoming.

“Lower ration prices, coupled with high fed cattle prices, are incentives for producers to put weight on cattle,” Ziegler explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The increase in popularity of beef on dairy cattle, as shown by a reduction in veal, also contributes to increased days on feed.”

Although longer feeding periods and heavier carcasses have boosted beef production higher than originally anticipated, Ziegler notes third-quarter beef production is projected to be 5.6% less year over year.

Cattle futures strengthened Monday, helped along by positive outside markets and the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), which indicated fewer placements than expected last month.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.05 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 54¢ higher, well off session highs, capped by advancing Corn futures. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were steady to 50¢ higher in the Texas Panhandle at $188-$188.50/cwt. steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $187-$188 and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was 57¢ lower at $193.67. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.56 lower at $310.04.

Choice boxed beef cutout value (p.m.): 39¢ lower at $313.44/cwt. Select was 47¢ lower at $298.33/cwt.

Soybeans led the grain complex higher Monday with short covering and apparent weather premium based on the global outlook.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 21¢ to 33¢ higher. Corn futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Monday, as investors bought back tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 127 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 280 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ to 25¢ lowermthrough the front six contracts.

******************************

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides further perspective to the recent monthly Cattle on Feed report in his weekly market comments.

“Although the feedlot inventory has been slow to decrease, feedlots have been placing fewer cattle as feeder supplies have dwindled in recent years,” Peel says.  “The total U.S. calf crop peaked in 2018 in the most recent cattle cycle and has been declining each of the past five years. The 2024 calf crop is estimated to be another 1.5% smaller year over year leading to a total decline since 2018 of 8.9% or 3.2 million head.”

While marketings in June were 8.7% less year over year, Peel explains average daily marketing were slightly higher when accounting for two less business days this year than last.

Peel also points out the percentage of heifers in the on-feed mix July 1 was near the highest level in the past 20 years at 40%.

“The heifer percentage of feedlot inventories drops below the average level (36.7%) during periods of heifer retention and herd rebuilding and is above average during periods of herd liquidation,” Peel explains.

Cattle futures continued mostly lower Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), which could provide some support Monday.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 47¢ lower, except for an average of 65¢ higher in the front two contracts. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of 85¢ lower (40¢ to $1.30 lower), except for 72¢ higher in spot Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower on Friday. They were an average of $1.73 lower week to week (92¢ lower at the back to $3.05 lower at the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live FOB prices were unevenly steady in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.32 lower Friday at $313.83/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $298.80.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.23 lower week to week on Friday at $313.83/cwt. Select was $3.51 lower at $298.80.  Over the last two weeks, Choice is down $16.60 and Select is down $6.26.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 584,000 was 17,000 fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer (-6.7%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 17.3 million head was 821,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 14.6 billion pounds was 242.5 million pounds less (-1.6%).

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday in search of a bottom and also likely impacted by the widespread internet outage.

Corn futures closed fractionally mixed to unchanged. Kansas City Wheat futures 7¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Friday, as investors sold mega-tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 377 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 144 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.19 to $2.69 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Markets will likely view the monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, placements of 1.56 million head in June were 115,000 head less (-6.8%) year over year, which was about 4% less than pre-report expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 39% went on feed weighing less than 700 lbs., 44% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in June of 1.79 million head were 171,000 head fewer (-8.7%) than the previous year, which was 0.5% less than estimates ahead of the report. Marketings were the second lowest for the date since the data series began in 1996.

Cattle on feed July 1 of 11.3 million head were 61,000 head more (+0.5%) than a year earlier, but that was 0.7% less than expectations ahead of the report.

Heifers and heifer calves comprised 40% of the on-feed mix, the same as a year earlier.

Heifer slaughter is 1% less year over year, and cow slaughter is down 14%, through the first six months, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). However, the weekly-average percentage of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix during that period is the third most of the last 20 years, according to ERS analysts, in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Cattle futures sagged lower Thursday with the week’s wobbly cash fed cattle trade, sharply lower outside markets and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 lower. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the North to mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live FOB prices are unevenly steady in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and dressed delivered trades are $2 lower in Nebraska at $310/cwt.

Last week, live FOB prices were mostly $198 in the North with dressed delivered prices at $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.01 lower Thursday afternoon at $316.15/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $299.46/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales were 15,400 metric tons (mt) for the week ending July 11, according to USDA’s weekly export sales report. Volume was 85% more than the previous week and 11% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower with pressure likely including anemic export sales. Net U.S. corn exports were 19% less than the previous week and 10% less than the prior-four-week average.

Kansas City Wheat futures were narrowly mixed. 

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, with more rotation from tech stocks and apparent profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 533 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 125 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 58¢   lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) for the remainder of this year and next, in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Projected prices increased $6 in the third quarter to $269/cwt. and $5 in the fourth quarter to $268. This year’s annual average price increased $3.54 to $258.50. Forecast prices increased by $4 in the first quarter of next year to $251 and by $4 for the annual 2025 average to $262.50.

“In the first half of 2024, forage conditions have generally improved from a year ago, corn prices are relatively less expensive, and the prospect for higher fed cattle prices this year have supported strong feeder cattle prices … the expected supply for feeder cattle available in second-half 2024 will remain tight, supporting elevated feeder cattle prices,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon with early FOB live trades at $188/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312.

Live Cattle futures strengthened Wednesday as cash fed cattle traded steady in the South. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, perhaps with some positioning and wariness ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Estimates ahead of the report peg June placements at 3% less year over year, June marketings about 8% less and the July 1 on-feed inventory about 1% more.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 lower Wednesday afternoon at $318.16/cwt. Select was $3.15 lower at $298.44/cwt.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 24¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 39¢ higher.  

Grain and Soybean futures continued to firm Wednesday with more short covering and some support from the lower U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed widely mixed Wednesday, as tech stocks retreated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 512 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.08 to $2.31 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mostly strengthened Tuesday, supported by bullish outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 57¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Aug and an average of 9¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and mostly $198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312 in Nebraska and mostly $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.23 lower Tuesday afternoon at $319.26/cwt. Select was $3.23 lower at $301.59/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures firmed Tuesday with likely short covering. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S.  financial indices closed higher again Tuesday, amid multi-sector support and growing optimism about interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 742 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 35 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 36 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 95¢ to $1.09   lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Feedlot net returns through August are projected to be positive, based on the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University (K-State).

“Steers sold in June are estimated to have experienced positive net returns of $51.12/head. This reverses a six-month trend of losses for the modeled feedlot situation,” explains Glynn Tonsor, K-State agricultural economist, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Several factors underlie the improved returns in June. Steers sold in June are modeled to have $111/cwt cost of gain which is well below the $122 average for the first five months of 2024. Similarly, a June fed cattle sales price of $185/cwt being above the $182 average for the first months of 2024 further aided in turning June net returns positive.”

Tonsor notes the data series reflects a cash situation, presumes no ongoing hedging of feed or cattle price movement, and is intended to provide a barometer of profitability trends rather than precise estimates for any given feedlot situation.

Beyond August net feedlot returns are projected to be negative through March of next year.

“The projected switch to negative returns primarily reflects increased feeder cattle placement prices negating comparatively small increases in outgoing fed cattle sales prices,” Tonsor says. “While each operation certainly has unique considerations to make in using this barometer of profit trends, the broader dynamics in both feed and cattle markets will remain worth watching in coming months as discussions around relative cattle supplies and status of beef demand strength evolve.”

Feeder Cattle futures moved higher Monday, helped along by wilting Corn futures, while Live Cattle futures sought near-term direction. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 62¢ higher.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from 25¢ lower to 37¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains $198 in Nebraska and mostly $198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312 in Nebraska and mostly $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ lower Monday afternoon at $321.49/cwt. Select was $2.51 higher at $304.82/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures took a step lower Monday, pressured by the continued positive weather outlook. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 16¢ lower. Soybean futures were 26¢ to 29¢ lower. 

******************************

Major financial indices closed higher Monday with investors apparently betting the failed assassination attempt on former President, Donald Trump, will lead to another term in office, accompanied by market-friendly policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 210 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 74 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 24¢ to 34¢  lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Wholesale beef prices are etching lower as markets enter the summer doldrums.

“Beef demand usually slows between the July 4 and Labor Day holidays as both summer grilling and high-end restaurant traffic slows in the heat of the summer,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “The early-July drop in boxed beef price is the result of seasonal weakness in the main middle meats: Tenderloin, Ribeye and Strip Loin. Wholesale prices for a number of other cuts continue to move higher, including for Tri-tip and Flank steak, along with numerous chuck and round cuts. Several lean round cuts are no doubt supported by the record-high price for lean trimmings that is pushing wholesale ground beef value to ever-higher record levels.”

Peel also notes beef production in June was 3.8% more year over year, driven by slightly higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.

“Carcass weights finally showed some decrease with the latest reported steer carcass weights the last week of June at 911 pounds, down from 924 pounds five weeks earlier,” Peel says. “Summer heat is likely a factor in declining carcass weights, as well. The decrease in carcass weights has been much slower than is typical through June and it is not clear what the seasonal pattern will be for the remainder of the year. Carcass weights typically begin increasing seasonally in July, but steer carcasses are already 27 pounds higher year over year, even with the recent decrease.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to limited with very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $197-$198.50. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $312. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $312-$315.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 75¢ higher (12¢ to $1.15 higher). However, they were an average of $2.63 lower week to week on Friday. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher on Friday but were an average of $4.66 lower week to week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 41¢ higher Friday afternoon at $322.06/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $302.31/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was down $8.37 and Select was $2.75 lower.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 601,000 head was 79,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week, but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 16.7 million head was 778,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 14.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (1.6%).   

Corn futures firmed Friday, buoyed by a bullish WASDE. They closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher, but they were an average of 9’7¢ lower through the front six contracts week to week on Friday.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Dec ’25 and then unchanged to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 12¢ lower through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

******************************

Major financial indices closed higher Friday with extended investor optimism regarding the potential of interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 247 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 115 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 16¢ to 41¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.

Price expectations increased despite higher forecast beef production. Compared to the previous month, this year’s beef production was projected 65 million pounds more at 26.7 billion pounds with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter. Beef production for next year was projected 100 million pounds more at 25.5 billion pounds based on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by lower cow slaughter. Next year’s estimated beef production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.5%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures firmed Thursday.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow with light to moderate demand in the North to inactive with very light demand in the South through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $198. Dressed delivered prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $312. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn belt the previous week were $312-$315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 lower Thursday afternoon at $321.65/cwt. Select was 56¢ lower at $303.38/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday on oversold conditions. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 22¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

******************************

Major financial indices closed mixed Thursday with much of the give and take attributed to the lower inflation reading than expected, boosting hopes for an interest rate cut.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after being unchanged in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 364 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 30¢ to 83¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to unwind Thursday, pressured by declining wholesale beef value and lower cash trade in the South.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 61¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.94 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at$188/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.61 lower Wednesday afternoon at $324.05/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $303.94/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Wednesday ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 12¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 25¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and with investors apparently betting on a favorable Consumer Price Index due out Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 429 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 218 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 36¢ to $1.04 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

A recent economic analysis of the national Beef Checkoff program found that each dollar invested in its demand-driving activities for the most recent five-year period (2019–2023) positively impacted domestic beef demand and U.S. beef exports, creating a total financial benefit of $13.41 for the producers and importers who pay into the program.

The Beef Checkoff commissioned the independent economic analysis to assess the effectiveness and additional financial benefits produced by the program’s demand-driving activities. The analysis was conducted by Dr. Harry M. Kaiser of Cornell University.

Cattle futures tried to gain early again in Tuesday’s session but broke back, apparently spurred in part by a knee-jerk reaction to mid-day Choice boxed beef prices which were $4.87/lower; Select was $1.69 lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.52 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$193 in Kansas.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.81 lower Tuesday afternoon at $325.66/cwt. Select was 41¢ lower at $304.31

Front-month grain futures firmed Tuesday while Soybean futures continued to erode. Positive weather continues to apply pressure. As the week continues, traders will also be positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher to 8¢ higher in spot Jly. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed again Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 90¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Continued strong heifer slaughter suggests that little, if any, heifer retention for herd rebuilding has begun, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He notes this, along with longer feeding periods, are why average monthly feedlot inventories June 1 were the same year over year, and through the first half of this year, were only 2.2% less than peak levels in September of 2022.

“Supply fundamentals will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year and beyond,” Peel says. “Beef production will likely finish the year down 3.0-3.5% year over year, less than previously expected due to continued heavy carcass weights. Feedlot inventories and cattle slaughter will continue to decline, perhaps faster if heifer retention begins in a significant way. Barring outside shocks, cattle prices will remain at record levels and push even higher if herd rebuilding begins in the coming months.” 

Peel notes mid-year cattle prices are at record-high levels.

“Fed steers averaged $195.81/cwt. (live basis) and 850-pound, Med/Large, No. 1 steers averaged $255.41/cwt. in Oklahoma auctions prior to July 4,” Peel says.  “Likewise Boning cull cows, average dressing, averaged $143.22/cwt. with high-dressing Breaker cows averaging $154.41/cwt. Steers calves are priced slightly below the March seasonal peak but averaged $324.53/cwt. before July 4 for 475-pound Med/Large, No. 1 steers, down from the $350.85/cwt. March average.”

Cattle futures tried to gain early in Monday’s session but ran out of steam to close lower in what turned out to be a risk-off day in ag commodities, perhaps with some positioning at the beginning of the Goldman Roll.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.34 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady to $3 higher in Kansas at $190-$193.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 4¢ higher Monday afternoon at $330.47/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $304.72/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures lost ground Monday, with added pressure from more moisture in the forecast. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 12¢ to 17¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 15¢ to 30¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday as investors await key inflation data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 56¢ to 94¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef export value topped $900 million in May, which was 3% more year over year and the most since June 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. beef export value equated to $410.94 per head of fed slaughter in May, up 3% from a year ago.

In terms of volume, May beef exports totaled 110,133 metric tons (mt), down 5% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024.

Exports trended higher year-over-year to Japan, Mexico, the ASEAN Region, the Middle East, the Caribbean and Central America – which included a record month for Guatemala. May export value was also higher for Taiwan.

For January through May, beef exports followed a similar trend, increasing 5% year-over-year in value to $4.29 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (533,578 mt). January-May U.S. beef export value equated to $410.40 per head of fed slaughter, which was 5% more than the same period last year.

“It has been encouraging to see demand stabilize in Japan, where U.S. beef certainly faces significant headwinds,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The tourism boom has provided a much-needed lift for Japan’s foodservice sector, and it is a source of optimism for buyers and importers. Taiwan and the ASEAN region were also bright spots for U.S. beef in May, along with Western Hemisphere markets such as Mexico, Guatemala and the Caribbean.”

May pork exports totaled 251,447 mt, down 4% from a year ago, valued at $715.8 million (down 2%).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $190/cwt. in a light test.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312 but stretched as high as $317.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $330.43/cwt. Select was 68¢ higher at $305.06/cwt.

Cattle futures mainly drifted lower in light post-holiday trade on Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ lower, except for an average of 41¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.49 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures rallied on Friday, with Wheat receiving support from export sales and Corn buoyed by a spottier rain forecast.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 11¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, supported by a weaker labor report than expected, boosting hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was slightly higher at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 10¢ to $35. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 67 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 164 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 72¢ to 77¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Creighton University’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in June for the 10^th consecutive month. Specifically, the RMI declined from 44.2 in May to 41.7 in June. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business explains higher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales were key drivers of the decline.

“Farm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year,” says James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa.

Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, supported by strong wholesale beef values and prospects of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices for the holiday-shortened week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains at mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312 but stretched as high as $317.

For added perspective, last month’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $8.82 higher year over year at $193.33/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $13.04 higher at $307.26.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 55¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $329.84/cwt. Select was $2.10 lower at $304.38/cwt.

Corn and Kansas City Wheat futures softened Wednesday with pressure from favorable weather. Heading into the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

Futures and equity markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Independence Day.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed, as investors seemed to mostly ignore weaker than expected job growth, by one measure.

Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June, according to the June ADP^®National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute^® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

“Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 23 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by strong wholesale beef values, which were propped up further by lost production at Cargill’s plant in Dodge City for a few days this week, due to a partial roof collapse, owing to heavy rain last weekend. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.54 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312, but stretched as high as $317.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.21 higher Tuesday afternoon at $330.39/cwt. Select was 7¢ higher at $306.48/cwt.

Front-month Corn and Soybean futures gained Tuesday, likely with additional short covering. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 10¢ lower with likely harvest pressure. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices gained again on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 149 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

******************************

Agricultural producer sentiment drifted lower in June, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which declined 3 points month to month to 105. A 5-point decline in the Index of Future Expectations to 112 drove the weaker outlook as the Current Conditions Index increased 1 point to 90.

High input costs, the risk of lower commodity prices and rising interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment.

“The impact of rising interest rates on their farm operations has become a bigger concern for producers in recent months,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Interest rate risk and high breakeven levels combined with concerns that crop and livestock prices could weaken are holding back producer sentiment and making producers cautious about making large investments.”

More producers indicated that it is not a favorable time for large investments compared to May, while the percentage of producers who viewed it as a good time remained the same. The Farm Capital Investment Index declined 3 points to a reading of 32, just 1 point above its historical low.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from June 17-21.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., unevenly steady in Kansas at $190, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $198 (some up to $200) and mainly steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $198.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $312 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $312. Prices ran as high as $317 in both regions.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price was 97¢ higher at $195.81. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.92 higher at $313.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 higher Monday afternoon at $329.18/cwt. Select was $1.91 higher at $306.41.

Cattle futures softened again Monday with sluggish interest. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.05 lower.

As for the grain complex, short covering seemed to be the order of the day. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mainly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices gained on Monday, helped along by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 50 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 146 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.32 to $1.84 higher through the front six contracts, as traders appeared to add risk premium based on political tensions in the Middle East and concerns about hurricane season. Holiday demand added support.

******************************

Between USDA’s estimate of planted area in Friday’s Acreage report and trendline yields, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says corn production this year would be about 15 billion bushels. If usage remains steady, he explains the stocks to use ratio would increase to more than 16%.

“This level of stocks has not been seen since the 2005/06 crop year,” Koontz says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “New crop corn futures have fallen to between $4.15-$4.20 and $4.00 will be pressured if yields are better than the trend, which seems likely, given the rainfall that much of the Corn Belt has seen. The cattle – and every other protein animal – industry is looking at prospects of the lowest feed grain prices in years.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were unevenly steady at $190/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand with some early FOB live trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $198, but too few to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 11,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 15.6 million head was 729,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 13.1 billion pounds was 209.7 million pounds less (-1.6%) year over year.

Cattle futures softened Friday with likely profit taking, month-end positioning and traders apparently leery to step out ahead of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.14 higher in the front three contracts ($1.25 to $5.90 higher) as the expiring spot Jun closed some of the broad gap with cash. From there Live Cattle were an average of 75¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.72 lower on Fiday. Week to week they were an average of 60¢ lower, except for 92¢ higher in spot Aug.

Corn futures dove lower Friday with the bearish Acreage report, applying pressure to Wheat and Soybeans, along with likely month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower. Week to week they were an average of 31’0¢ lower through the front six contracts, an average of 47’3¢ lower over the past two weeks.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower through May ’25 and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through near Nov  and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices settled lower Friday, as investors squared books for the end of the month.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 126 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 19¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Thursday, with likely profit taking and no cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ lower, except for $1.47 higher and unchanged in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 lower, except for 15¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 48¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $323.33/cwt. Select was 16¢ lower at $302.70/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower again Thursday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Thursday, ahead of key inflation data Friday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 53 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 34¢ to 91¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Prices for food away from home (FAFH) — eating out — grew more quickly over the last decade than food at home (FAH), and the overall rate of inflation, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“Prices for all consumer goods and services across the economy, as measured by the all-items Consumer Price Index, rose by 34.3% between January 2014 and May 2024,” ERS analysts say. “FAFH prices climbed steadily over the past decade and were 49.5% higher in May 2024 than January 2014, while prices for FAH, or groceries, rose 29.9%.”

Cattle futures powered ahead Wednesday, helped along by record and near-record high cash fed cattle prices at a strong premium to the Board. Floundering Corn futures added support.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.24 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $322.85/cwt. Select was $2.40 lower at $302.86/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday, helped along by tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 87 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ lower to 13¢ higher, through the front six contracts.

******************************

Total pounds of beef in freezers May 31 were 3% less than the previous month and down slightly year over year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report

Frozen pork supplies were down 3% from the previous month and down 9% from a year earlier.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 3% less month to month and 5% less year over year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 3% from the previous month but down 5% from a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.39/cwt. Select was 19¢ higher at $305.26/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to lower on Tuesday, as traders bided their time for further cash direction. Before settlement, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 28¢ lower to an average of 32¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with apparent fund selling and potential positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Heading into the close, Corn futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 19¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 220 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 55¢ to 85¢ lower, through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although corn and soybeans will likely receive the lion’s share of attention in Friday’s USDA Acreage report, the number of hay acres could provide hints to herd expansion in terms of availability and cost, according to Matthew Diersen, risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University.

“Earlier this year producers expected to harvest 51.6 million acres of hay in the U.S. in 2024,” Diersen says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “While down slightly from last year, the expected level exceeds the total expected for recent years. Acres above the prospective level would be a sign of expansion plans.”

For perspective, Diersen explains the 10-year average U.S. hay yield is 2.4 tons per acre. Using the average for the expected acres, he says, would result in 124 million tons of hay, exceeding last year’s production by 5 million tons.

“Thus, any acreage figure close to last year would likely generate the tons needed to keep prices reasonable,” Diersen says.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Monday, as traders sorted through Friday’s bearish Cattle on Feed report, in tandem with the surge in negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher in the front two contracts and then narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 22¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 15¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $189-$190/cwt. and $2-$5 higher in Kansas at $188-$191 with some as high as $198. FOB live prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $197-$198 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $197-$198.

Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $310-$312 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $310, but with prices stretching as high as $314.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.29 higher at $194.84/cwt., which was $12.27 higher year over year. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.08 higher week to week at $310.55; it was $20.74 higher year over year.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 25¢ higher Monday afternoon at $322.64/cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $305.07/cwt.

Turning to row crops, grain futures edged lower Monday, while Soybean futures gained.

Heading into the close, through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ lower to fractionally higher. Soybean futures closed were 8¢ to 13¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with support from bank and energy stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 192 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 86¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Heading into July, pasture and range conditions continue positive across much of the nation, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report (week ending June 23), with 47% rated as Good (39%) or Excellent (8%), which was 3% more than a year earlier.

On the other side of the scale, 25% was rated as Poor (15%) or Very Poor (10%), compared to 24% a year earlier. Key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (37%), New Mexico (69%) and Texas (41%).

As for row crops, 97% of corn was in the ground, which was 1% less than a year earlier but 1% more than the five-year average. Sixty-nine percent was in Good (55%) or Excellent (14%) condition, compared to 50% a year earlier. Seven percent was rated as Poor (5%) or Very Poor (2%) versus 15% a year earlier.

Similarly, 97% of soybeans were in the ground, which was 2% less year over year but 2% more than the average. Sixty-seven percent were in Good (56%) or Excellent (11%) condition, compared to 51% a year earlier. Eight percent were in Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%) condition, compared to 14% the prior year.

Winter wheat harvest was running ahead, too, with 40% in the bin, which was 19% more than the same time last year and 15% more than average. Fifty-two percent was in Good (42%) or Excellent (10%) condition versus 40% a year earlier. Fifteen percent was in Poor (10%) or Very Poor (5%) condition, compared to 28% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which proved to be bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ lower, except for an average of 56¢ higher in the front two contracts. They were an average of $1.27 lower week to week on Friday, except for $1.47 higher in spot Jun.

Feeder Cattle futures an average of $1.21 lower. They were an average of $2.81 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on moderate demand in the north through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to establish a trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $310-$312/cwt. and some FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $197.

Based on final established trade the previous week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 48¢ lower Friday afternoon at $322.39/cwt. Select was $1.29 lower at $303.11/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 620,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 29,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 15 million head was 687,000 head fewer (-4.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.6 billion pounds was 197.3 million pounds less (-1.5%).

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, there were an average of 16’3¢ lower through the front six contracts. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 7¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 52¢ to 56¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.0 million head in May (+84,000 head), which was 4.3% more year over year and 6% more than expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 19% went on feed weighing less than 600 lbs., 15% weighing 600-699 lbs., 24% weighing 700-799 lbs., 26% weighing 800-899 lbs., 11% weighing 900-999 lbs. and 4% weighing 1,000 lbs. or more.

Marketings in May of 1.9 million head were slightly higher (+3,000 head), which was in line with expectations.

The June 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was slightly less than a year earlier (-7,000 head), whereas estimates ahead of the report pegged it 1% lower.

Cattle futures drifted lower Thursday, lacking the week’s cash fed cattle direction and perhaps with some wariness about Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the estimates you consider, analysts peg May placements about 2% less year over year, May marketings about even and the June 1 cattle on feed inventory about 1% less.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ lower, except for an average of 49¢ higher in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 37¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.17 higher Thursday afternoon at $322.87/cwt. Select was $1.14 higher at $304.40/cwt.

Turning to grain and Soybean futures, heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures closed were 10¢ to 18¢ lower.

******************************

Yearling steers and heifers sold steady at Tulia Livestock Auction (1,634 head) in Texas. Stocker calves sold with a higher undertone.

Feeder steers and heifers sold $5-$8 higher at Woodward Livestock Auction (1,187 head) Oklahoma. Steer and heifer calves sold with a higher undertone in a light test.

Remember, if you’re looking for a weekly market summary and highlights, check out the CalfNews Price Point podcast that comes out each Tuesday. You’ll find it at CalfNews.net

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 140 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 77¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

For the first four month of the year, cattle on feed longer than 150 days May 1 was the highest in 12 years, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“According to industry participants, some packers are foregoing typical discounts on cattle above certain weights, further incentivizing feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer, especially as they maintain feedlot capacity utilization in the face of slowing placements,” ERS analysts explain.

Year over year for the week ending May 25, 2024, steer carcass weights were 37 pounds heavier and heifer carcass weights were 29 pounds higher, according to ERS.

“This additional weight is enabling packers to partially offset the impact of having fewer cattle to process than a year ago, as carcasses are yielding about 4% more product year over year,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current recently, ERS left projected beef production for this year basically unchanged, compared to the previous month at 26.6 billion pounds, as heavier expected dressed weights mostly offset lower anticipated slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 25.4 billion pounds was 245 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate.

Next year’s total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.6%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures softened Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction and perhaps with some profit taking. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.52 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $320.52/cwt. Select was 61¢ lower at $304.21/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher with likely technical correction. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed were 10¢ to 16¢ higher in the front two contracts and then marginally higher through new-crop.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices were little changed but to the upside Tuesday with continued support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.05 to $1.06 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left projected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) unchanged, compared to the previous month, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, except for $1 lower in the second and fourth quarters. Average prices are forecast to be $254/cwt. in the second quarter, and $263 in the third and fourth quarters. The annual average price estimate was reduced 50¢ to $254.96. Next year’s annual average price was projected at $258.50 with the first-quarter price at $247.

“Demand for feeder cattle remains steady, supported in part by improved forage and pasture conditions from a year ago across most of the country,” say ERS analysts. “This has enabled cattle to go on grass rather than into

feedlots, particularly as feedlots are limiting placements in response to high feeder prices.”

As reported in Cattle Current last week, ERS raised the expected average five-area direct fed steer price for most of the remainder of the year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, prices were projected $2 higher in the second quarter at $186/cwt. and $1 higher in the third quarter at $183, but $1 lower in the fourth quarter at $186. The forecast annual price for this year increased 50¢ to $184.01. ERS also raised the expected first-quarter price and the 2025 annual average price by $1 to $186 and $189, respectively.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $5-$8 higher in Nebraska at $195-$198 and mainly $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193-$195. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.63 higher at $192.55. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.76 higher at $305.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ higher Monday afternoon at $320.47/cwt. Select was $1.01 higher at $304.82/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday with likely profit taking following the previous session’s surge.

Turning to row crops, Grain and soybean futures dropped Monday with an improved weather outlook. Heading into the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower, while Kansas City Wheat futures and Soybean futures were mostly 15¢ to 21¢ lower. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices gained Monday, bolstered by tech stocks and apparent optimism about the prospects of a rate cut this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 168 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.23 to $2.17 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Record and near-record high U.S. beef cattle prices are encouraging more live imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the relatively small numbers do not shift domestic price trends, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The U.S. cattle industry is nearly five times the size of the Mexican cattle industry and nearly eight times the size of the Canadian industry,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “Changes in trade will result in relatively minor market adjustments but will not change the level or trajectory of U.S. cattle prices.”

For perspective, Peel explains the U.S. comprises 75% of the North American herd, followed by Mexico at 15% and 10% in Canada.

Total annual Cattle imports to the U.S. have averaged 1.93 million head over the past decade: 1.16 million head from Mexico (60.5 percent) and 0.764 million head from Canada averaging 0.764 million head (39.5 percent), according to Peel. Imports from Mexico are mostly feeder cattle. Canada exports mostly fed cattle to the U.S. for slaughter, as well as packer cows and bulls.

Through the first four months of this year, Peel says U.S. cattle imports of 762,450 head were 17% more year over year.

On the other side of the ledger, Peel notes the U.S. exported 116,084 head to Canada and Mexico during the first four months — most going to Canada.

Cattle futures charged higher Friday, supported by the hefty rise in cash fed cattle prices. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.41 higher ($1.92 to $3.67 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.13 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on moderate demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $195-$196 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $193-$195. Some trades were as high at $197 in the latter two regions. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $305-$306. Dressed delivered prices were as high as $308 in Nebraska and $309 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 higher Friday afternoon at $319.89/cwt. Select was $4.56 higher at $303.81/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 615,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 14.4 million head was 654,000 head fewer (-4.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.1 billion pounds was 191 million pounds less (-1.6%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean future softened Friday on likely profit taking. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 21 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed  17¢ to 38¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Wholesale beef prices continued to gain on seasonal demand last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.14 higher week to week on Friday at $319.89/cwt. Select was $2.67 higher at $303.81. Choice is up $6.69 over the past two weeks.

“Both the Choice and Select beef cutout values have been methodically increasing the past few weeks as the grilling season is headed for the heart of summer,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University, in his weekly market comments.”

Griffith points out higher wholesale beef prices ultimately boost retail beef prices. So, upside potential will be etched by consumer willingness to pay more.

“Increasing retail beef prices lends itself to supporting direct to consumer beef sales as relative prices are expected to narrow,” Griffith says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Prices were $1 higher at $186/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on good demand. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $192-$195. Last week, prices were $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $301 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 71¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $318.31/cwt. Select was 32¢ higher at $299.25/cwt.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher with firmer wholesale beef prices and the outlook for higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 44¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 22¢ lower, except for an average of 30¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Grain and soybean futures firmed Thursday.

Heading toward the close, and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher, supported by a hot forecast and stronger weekly export sales. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 13¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices settled little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 25¢ to 57¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although Choice beef cutout values rallied above $300/cwt. several weeks ago, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University notes prices are a bit softer year over year.

“Somewhat counteracting the normal improved demand during the summer are the strong slaughter volumes – especially of fed heifers – and the very strong counter-seasonal fed steer and heifer slaughter weights,” Koontz says, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Fed weights were flat through March, April, and May, so now there are almost 30 more pounds of beef per animal – both steers and heifers – than last year … there is almost 5% more beef due to heavier slaughter weights.”

At the same time, beef exports continue to face challenges for a number of reasons.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending June 6 of 12,000 metric tons were 17% less than the previous week and 28% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Cattle futures drifted lower, pressured in part by the lack of firm cash direction for the week.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 42¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $317.60/cwt. Select was $1.69 lower at $298.93/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed again Wednesday, with little apparent direction taken from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 21¢ lower with likely harvest pressure. Soybean futures mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices settled mixed Wednesday, but were buoyed by the monthly Consumer Prices Index, which indicated slightly less inflation than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 45 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 264 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 32¢ to 42¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected average five-area direct fed steer price for most of the remainder of the year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, prices were projected $2 higher in the second quarter at $186/cwt. and $1 higher in the third quarter at $183, but $1 lower in the fourth quarter at $186. The forecast annual price for this year increased 50¢ to $184.01. ERS also raised the expected first-quarter price and the 2025 annual average price by $1 to $186 and $189, respectively.

Projected beef production for this year was basically unchanged at 26.6 billion pounds as heavier expected dressed weights mostly offset lower anticipated slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 25.4 billion pounds was 245 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate.

“The beef production forecast is raised on higher expected placements in the fourth quarter of 2024 and faster expected pace of marketings during the first half,” ERS analysts say. “In addition, dressed weights are expected to remain relatively high into 2025.”

Next year’s total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.6%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures softened Tuesday as traders awaited weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 99¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $318.21/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $300.62/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday, with likely positioning ahead of Wednesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Heading toward the close, through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices settled mixed Tuesday, with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 120 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 151 points.

******************************

Expectations for continued historically strong domestic consumer beef demand will pave the way to record-high retail beef prices this summer as production declines, according to Rabobank’s Global Beef Quarterly for the second quarter.

RaboResearch analysts point out the U.S. all-fresh beef retail price in April was record-high at $7.95 per pound and demand was the second highest in the past three decades.

At the same time, those analysts note prices for calves, feeder cattle and fed cattle were record-high or near record-high in March. They expect calf and fed cattle prices to trend sideways through the summer, while feeder cattle prices strengthen.

Globally, Rabobank forecasts declining beef production in the U.S. and Europe will overshadow anticipated production increases in Australia and Brazil.

“The global cattle market is currently moving at two distinct paces,” according to Angus Gidley-Baird, Rabobank Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “North American markets are hovering near record highs amid the contraction in local production, while other regions are experiencing more subdued pricing. Europe finds itself in the middle ground, despite a recent uptick in production. These regional disparities are beginning to influence international trade flows, with the U.S. ramping up its import volumes and major Asian markets maintaining steady import levels.”

Cattle futures extended support from the previous session, buoyed by recently stronger wholesale beef prices and prospects of higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $190 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $301 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.42/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $301.04/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Monday, perhaps with some positioning ahead of this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jly ’25 and Soybean futures fractionally higher to 8¢ higher through near Nov. However, nearby Kansas City Wheat futures were 19¢ to 24¢ lower with likely harvest pressure.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.18 to $2.70 higher through the front six contracts on projections of summer demand exceeding supplies.

******************************

While fed cattle beef production continues higher than anticipated due to longer feeding periods and the slower packer pace, non-fed beef production is sharply lower so far this year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Total cow slaughter is down 14.1% year over year through the first 21 weeks of the year, with dairy cow slaughter down 13.4% and beef cow slaughter down 14.8% from last year,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “Cow carcass weights are averaging 646.8 pounds, up 10 pounds over one year ago. Bull slaughter is down 7.0% year over year, with bull carcass weights up 28.7 pounds year over year and averaging 892 pounds.” 

Conversely, Peel explains fed cattle slaughter is 4.5% less year over year and fed cattle beef production is 2.0% less.

All told, Peel says total non-fed slaughter through May was down 13.6% and total non-fed beef production was down 12.0%, or 1.69 billion pounds less. He adds that non-fed beef makes up 20% of total beef production, on average. 

“Fed cattle slaughter is expected to decrease more in late 2024, though carcass weights will likely remain elevated,” Peel says. “Heifer retention may be starting, which would lead to a larger decline in heifer slaughter by the end of the year. Beef cow slaughter may also drop more sharply in the last part of the year. Herd rebuilding typically results in decreased heifer and beef cow slaughter. Moisture conditions through the summer and into the fall will be critical to determine if, and how much, herd rebuilding gets started and the impact on 2024 beef production.”

Hear more of Peel’s insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the North.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt. and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $190. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $190.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Friday afternoon at $316.75/cwt. Select was 31¢ higher at $301.14/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was up $3.55 but Select was 57¢ lower.

Total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 74,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 13.7 million head was 631,000 head fewer (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.6 billion pounds was 198.4 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Cattle futures found some footing Friday, helped along by firm wholesale beef prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts. They were an average of $1.33 lower week to week on Friday, except for 62¢ higher in spot June.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher. However, they were an average of $1.75 lower week to week on Friday.

Grain and Soybean futures weakened Friday on likely fund selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures 12¢ to 20¢ lower through near Sep and then 2¢ to 9¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices settled slightly lower Friday with pressure including a stronger than expected labor report.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little- changed at 4.0%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 14¢ to $34.91. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 87 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef exports in April were the largest in 10 months at 111,580 metric tons (mt), according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export value was 5% more year over year at $898.7 million, which was also the highest level since last June.

Through the first four months of 2024, beef export value increased 5% year-over-year to $3.38 billion, despite a 3% decline in volume (423,445 mt).

“Mexico continued to shine on the beef side, along with the Caribbean, Central America and the Middle East,” according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “These markets are benefiting from foodservice demand and currency advantages compared to the main Asian markets. The headwinds in Asia remain formidable, but the tourism boom in Japan has helped solidify demand and exports have stabilized this year, despite the continued weakness in the yen and strong competition from Australia. Robust retail and e-commerce demand has helped U.S. chilled beef continue to dominate in Korea and Taiwan.”

April beef export value equated to $416.87 per head of fed slaughter, down 6% from a year ago, but the January-April average was still up 5% to $410.25.

April exports of U.S. pork reached the highest volume and value since May 2021. Pork exports totaled 277,910 metric tons (mt) in April, up 14% from a year ago and the fifth largest on record. Export value climbed 18% to $778.8 million, the third highest on record.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 lower at $185/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 higher Thursday afternoon at $316.21/cwt. Select was 7¢ lower at $300.83/cwt.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday heading into the close, pressured by the weaker outlook for cash prices this week and surge in Corn futures. Live Cattle futures were 90¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.00 lower, except for 17¢ higher in spot Jun.

Corn and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday on likely short covering.

Heading into the close, through Jly ‘25, Corn futures were 9¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed and little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 78 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.31 to $1.47 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower heading into the close Wednesday with pressure including lower wholesale beef values and a lack of cash direction for the week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.04 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.79/cwt. Select was $3.57 lower at $300.90/cwt.

Grain futures continued to unwind Wednesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday led by tech stocks. Support also came on weaker employment data, boosting hopes for interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 62 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 330 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 59¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Next year is likely to begin with a smaller beef cow herd, whether or not producers begin retaining heifers for expansion, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The question of when heifer retention begins is important in two respects,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “First, heifer retention will further squeeze feeder supplies and push feeder cattle prices higher. That is likely to happen later this year. Secondly, the longer it takes to start heifer retention, the longer the industry will continue to see reduced cattle inventories, smaller beef production, and high average cattle and beef price levels.”

There is no clear indication of heifer retention occurring currently. Previously, initial indications could be seen in USDA’s mid-year Cattle report. However, they recently did away with the report.

Grazing conditions across much of the country support expansion, but Peel points out numerous factors contribute to producer decisions.

“Despite improved current forage conditions, the threat of rebuilding La Niña conditions later in the year is likely tempering some production plans,” Peel says. “Moreover, while higher calf prices provide incentives to increase calf production, it’s not clear that producers are yet reacting to long term profitability prospects (to retain heifers) as much as short-term revenue from selling more calves now.”

Cattle futures tried for gains early in Tuesday’s trading session but were mainly marginally lower toward the close.

Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 15¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 16¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 28¢ lower, except for 12¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $188-$192 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.88/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $304.47/cwt.

Grain futures continued lower again Tuesday on crop progress. Toward the close, Corn futures were 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices gained Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 141 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 28 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.13 to $1.32 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. agricultural producer sentiment improved in May, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose 9 points from April to 108. The Current Conditions Index rose 6 points and the Index of Future Expectations climbed 11 points to 117.

Barometer analysts say rising crop prices helped buoy sentiment, as Eastern Corn Belt cash corn prices had increased 6% to 7% by mid-May, compared to the previous Ag Economy Barometer survey. Soybean prices had risen by 2% to 3%.

“The boost in the Index of Future Expectations reflects farmers’ expectation that conditions will improve, although it’s clear 2024’s financial challenges are still a concern,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

 This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from May 13-17, 2024.

Cattle futures firmed Monday with stronger wholesale beef prices after early pressure from last week’s wobbly cash fed cattle prices.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 19¢ higher, except for 62¢ lower in away Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 13¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 39¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $190 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $188-$192. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $3 lower at $301 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $300-$301.

The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.18 lower at $188.91. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.68 lower at $300.81.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 higher Monday afternoon at $315.60/cwt. Select was $1.99 higher at $303.70/cwt.

Grain futures continued lower Monday as crop progress brightens.

Heading into the close, through Jly ‘25, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures 6¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 15¢ to 20¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday and well off of session lows with pressure from indications of weakness in the manufacturing sector causing concerns about domestic economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 93 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.44 to $2.88 lower through the front six contracts, pressured by news that OPEC+ plans to phase out voluntary production cuts.

******************************

The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.18 lower at $188.91/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.68 lower at $300.81.

“It would appear the summer lull in finished cattle prices may hit the market earlier than normal and stay with the market longer than is typical,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist with the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “If this occurs then it will pull on feeder cattle and calf prices. If the market is able to trade steady, then it would be tremendous support for the rest of the market. The one positive to support finished cattle prices is the declining number of cattle in feedlots. As this number continues tightening, competition should improve.”

As beef packers slow production in an effort to support wholesale beef values, Griffith also notes the contribution of byproducts.

“The hide and offal value has been between $11 and $12/cwt. This value essentially adds these same dollars to the live animal,” Griffith explains. “In other words, if there was no value in the hide and offal, packers would have to pay $11 to $12/cwt. less for a finished animal.”

Griffith adds weekly average hide and offal values have been $1.57/cwt. less year over year for the first five months of 2024.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand up north to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $190 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $190-$192. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $3 lower at $301. Prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $302-$304.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 84¢ lower Friday afternoon at $313.20/cwt. Select was 81¢ lower at $301.71/cwt. Choice was $2.75 higher week to week on Friday. Select was 1¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the holiday-shortened week of 540,000 head was 67,000 head fewer than the previous week and 28,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 13.1 million head was 624,000 fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.1 billion pounds was 218.4 million pounds less (-1.9%).

Cattle futures continued lower Friday with pressure including steady to lower cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 lower. They were an average of $2.70 lower week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 lower, from 87¢ lower at the back to $2.67 lower at the front. Week to week, they were an average of $2.57 lower, from $1.15 lower toward the back to $3.82 lower at the front.

Grain futures continued to erode on Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Through the front six contracts, they were an average of 20¢ lower week to week.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday. Much of the support seemed tied to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index —a closely watched inflation gauge — coming in near expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 574 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 42 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 2 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Assuming no price risk management, cattle feeding returns are projected to be negative from June to the end of this year, according to the most recent Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (KFNR) from Kansas State University.

For June through December, projected net returns for steers range from -$47.99 per head in July to -$259.78 in September with feedlot cost of gain ranging between $109.91/cwt (June) to $116.34 (Dec.).

Similarly, projected net returns for fed heifers during the same period range from -$2.74 per head in July to -$176.38 in Sept. with feedlot cost of gain ranging from $119.20/cwt. (June) to $127.79 (Dec.).

Based on the KFNR, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) say, “The number of days on feed for a steer was reported at 206 days in April, which is up 25 days from 181 days in January. A year ago in April, the number of days on feed for a steer was 190. The number of days on feed for heifers increased from 178 days in January to 191 days in May, compared to 170 to 186 days during the same period last year.”

LMIC analysts add the increased number of days on feed and a decrease in average daily gain since the start of the year have resulted in more pounds of feed per pound of gain.

“Year-to-date through April, the pounds of feed per pound of gain for steers has averaged 6.8 compared to 6.4 last year while heifers have averaged 7.2 versus 6.8 last year, LMIC analysts explain,” in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Although pounds of feed per pound of gain have increased this year, feed costs have averaged $125 and $133/cwt. respectively, for steers and heifers, a decline of 15% and 16% compared to last year.”

For ADG perspective, LMIC analysts say it is less year over year and less than the five-year average through the first four months of this year. For steers, they explain steer ADG declined to 3.14 lbs. in April from 3.41 lbs. in January. For heifers, ADG declined from 3.03 lbs. in January to 2.89 pounds in April.

Cattle futures continued lower Thursday with follow-through pressure including negative outside markets, oversold conditions and perhaps some month-end profit taking.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 78¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there some early FOB live trades in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $187 in the Southern Plains, $192 in Nebraska and $190-$192 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $304 in Nebraska and $302-$304 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 42¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $314.04/cwt. Select was 4¢ lower at $302.52/cwt.

Grain futures closed lower again Thursday as traders pondered the improved planting and weather outlook.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices continued to chop lower Thursday with continued concerns about sticky inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 330 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 31 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 183 points.

Heading toward the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.10 to $1.33 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef exports for this year were forecast at $9.1 billion in USDA’s latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. That was $200 million more than the previous quarter’s estimate. The increase was based on slightly more volume and firm demand.

Overall U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2024 were projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast with higher exports of livestock, dairy and ethanol mostly offsetting reductions in grains and feeds, oilseeds, and horticultural products.

For broader perspective, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to rise by 3.2% in calendar year (CY) 2024, which was slightly higher than the previous forecast.

“Global economic growth continues to increase but at a slow rate, in part, due to a stagnation of global trade growth in 2023 and early 2024,” say USDA analysts. “Despite the slow progress, this steady growth marks a continued sign of resilience following the economic turmoil from 2020 through 2022. Nevertheless, several potential barriers to sustained economic growth persist including the war in Ukraine, intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, China’s economic uncertainty, and shifting weather patterns.”

U.S. GDP was forecast 0.6% higher than the previous estimate at 2.7%.

“This growth is buoyed by robust consumer spending notwithstanding factors leading to more subdued growth, such as declines in business inventories, Federal Government purchases, business investment, and investment in residential property,” say USDA analysts.

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure including negative outside markets, oversold conditions and perhaps some month-end profit taking.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.65 lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $3.15 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there some early FOB live trades in Nebraska at $190/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $187 in the Southern Plains, $192 in Nebraska and $190-$192 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $304 in Nebraska and $302-$304 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.50 higher Wednesday afternoon at $313.62/cwt. Select was 95¢ lower at $302.48/cwt.

Grain futures closed lower Wednesday as it appeared traders took back some weather premium.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 18¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Pressure included concerns about a second day of increase in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 411 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 99 points.

******************************

Rural communities continue struggling for economic growth, according to Creighton University’s latest Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). It sagged below growth neutral in May for the ninth consecutive month, declining 1.6 points from April to 44.2.

Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs contributed to the decline, according Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The RMI is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Among other measures, the region’s farmland price index slumped to 47.9 from April’s 56.5.

“For the first time in more than four years, Creighton’s survey is detecting weakening farmland price growth,” Goss says. “Only 4.2% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from previous levels.”

Similarly, the farm equipment sales index for May dropped to 34.0 from 47.7 in April. 

“This is the 11th time in the past 12 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral,” Goss says. “Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment.”

The latest survey also asked about banks’ interest rates on farm operating loans and farmland loans. On average, bankers reported an average interest rate of 8.6% on farm operating loans and 7.4% on farmland loans. 

Cattle futures started and ended the session higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash prices and the neutral monthly Cattle on Feed report, Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $192 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$192.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 higher at $304 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302-$304 in a light test.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.55 higher at $190.09. The average dressed delivered steer price was $4.10 higher at $303.49.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 higher Tuesday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was $1.71 higher at $303.43/cwt.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 12¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower and Soybean futures were 2¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, led by tech stocks but pressured by the broader market as treasury yields rose. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 216 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 99 points.

******************************

Sluggish feedlot marketings continues adding to fed cattle weights.

“The latest weekly data shows steer carcass weights at 923 pounds, up 32 pounds compared to one year ago, and heifer carcass weights of 848 pounds, up 28 pounds from one year ago,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Increased carcass weights are partially offsetting reduced cattle slaughter and keeping beef production higher than otherwise. For the first 19 weeks of the year, beef production is down 2.1% year over year. Earlier forecasts called for 2024 beef production to be down nearly 5%, but those forecasts have been revised due to the heavy carcass weights.”

Although marketings for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity were 10.1% more year over year in April, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report, Peel explains daily average marketings were about the same year over year when adjusted for the two extra marketing days in 2024.

“April marketings were 15.8% of the April 1 on-feed inventory, the highest monthly rate since August 2023,” Peel says. “Nevertheless, the average marketing rate over the past 12 months remains historically low. Marketings in the first four months of this year are down 0.6% year over year.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., mainly $2 higher in Nebraska at $192 (some up to $193.50) and mostly $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $192 (some up to $193).

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 higher at mostly $304 (some up to $305). Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were mainly $300 (some up to $306).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ higher Friday afternoon at $310.45/cwt. Select was $1.64 higher at $301.72/cwt.

Estimated cattle slaughter last week of 607,000 head was 9,000 more than the previous week but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimate total cattle slaughter of 12.6 million head was 594,00 head fewer than (-4.5%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.6 billion pounds was 213.9 million pounds less (-2.0%).

Cattle futures edged mostly lower Friday ahead of the long holiday weekend and the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 13¢ lower, except for an average of 11¢ higher in the front two contracts. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $1.76 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower, except for 40¢ higher in newly minted away-May. They were an average of $1.46 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures closed higher Friday with traders maintaining a weather premium.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 184 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 52¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Depending on which estimates were consulted ahead of time, Friday’s Cattle on Feed report will likely be viewed as neutral, coming in pretty much in line with estimates.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in April, which was 102,000 head fewer (-5.8%) than the previous year.

In terms of placement weights, 33% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 50% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 17% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in April of 1.9 million head were 172,000 head more (+10.1%) year over year.

The on-feed inventory May 1 of 11.6 million head was 100,000 head fewer (-0.9%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures started stronger Thursday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices in the South, but faded to a lower close on likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and the holiday weekend.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.07 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $187/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend so far this week, there are some early FOB live sales in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $192.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.33 lower Thursday afternoon at $309.84/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $300.08/cwt.

U.S. beef export sales continue to show promise. The week ending May 16, net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 of 21,500 metric tons were 42% more than the previous week and 32% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, South Korea, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

As for row crops, grain futures added back some weather premium. Heading into the close, Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher through May ’25 and Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ‘25. However, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with pressure including inflation pessimism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 605 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 55¢ to 68¢ lower  through the front six contracts.

******************************

Emphasizing the quality and consistency of U.S. red meat is the key to expanding the international customer base, according to speakers at the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Spring Conference in Kansas City.

Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO noted that first-quarter average beef export value of $455 per head of fed slaughter was 9% higher year over year.

“This tells me that the global consumer is willing to pay because they understand the value of U.S. beef,” Halstrom said. “We’re different. We’re higher value, higher perception. U.S. beef is not a commodity product, like a lot of our competitors. This is a key takeaway.”

Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax, echoed these sentiments in explaining how U.S. beef competes for the consumer dollar, both in the U.S. and internationally.

“The biggest change in the beef industry has been quality,” Blach said. “And we can never lose sight of that – our niche is grain-fed, high-quality beef that really nobody else can produce around the globe. Those of you who are producers in the room, you have also invested in genetics and you have gotten paid dividends for those decisions.”

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday, supported by recently stronger cash fed cattle and wholesale beef prices. The next two trading sessions appear to be wild cards as traders position ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report and the three-day weekend.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.29 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in Nebraska to slow on light demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Kansas at $187/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 85¢ lower Wednesday after noon at $312.17/cwt. Select was $1.26 lower at $299.61/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures 1¢ to 5¢ lower through May ’25. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Primary pressure appeared to be minutes from the last Fed meeting reaffirming the notion that current inflation will rein back eventual rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 31 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Based on feeder and stocker sales reported to the Agricultural Marketing Service, volume is about 6% less year over year for the first 19 weeks of 2024, according to Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University.

“There have been roughly 330,000 fewer feeder and stocker cattle sold at auction so far in 2024 than in the same time period of 2023,” Maples says, in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “Compared to the 5-year average (2018-2022), receipts in 2024 were down 3% (163,000 head) year to date. This dataset includes auction, direct, and video/internet sales that are reported to USDA. It does not capture all feeder and stocker cattle transactions … Thus, it’s not perfect, but comparisons over time can be informative when considering current market dynamics to previous years.” 

Maples notes the percentage of heifer sales so far this year is 43%, mirroring the same period last year.

“Information gleaned from auction receipt totals this fall will be relatively more valuable this year to understand changes in the 2024 calf crop,” Maples says. “Traditionally, the first estimate of the 2024 calf crop would be released in the mid-year USDA Cattle Inventory report. However, USDA-NASS recently announced the mid-year report would be discontinued for budget reasons. They will not be releasing 2024 calf crop estimates until the January 2025 report is released.” 

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by steady to stronger wholesale beef values.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $192/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $313.02/cwt. Select was $1.52 higher at $300.87/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ’25 on planting pressure. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower through Jly ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday but to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Heading into the monthly Cattle on Feed report, analysts expect, on average, April feedlot placements to be about 5% less year over year, April marketings to be about 10% more and the May 1 on-feed number to be approximately 1% less.

“There is a clear understanding of the coming long-term reductions in numbers and beef supplies. This week’s Cattle on Feed report will be interesting in how placements confirm this perspective,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Has the persistent dry weather and poor pasture led to more placements and less heifer holding, thereby delaying the shortfalls but exacerbating their future magnitude?”

While many cast their gaze on placements, marketings may be more telling this time. Even though there were a couple of extra days of production in April compared to last year, packers have been dialing back production to boost wholesale beef values.

Based on federally inspected (FI) fed cattle slaughter data, Koontz does not expect to see a strong April marketing number in this week’s Cattle on Feed report.

“Last month’s Cattle on Feed revealed a large number of cattle on-feed over 150 days, and there will be some reduction but not strong,” Koontz believes. “And FI steer and heifer carcass weights continue to impress. Weights have essentially held steady the last eight to nine weeks. Steers hover above 920 pounds and heifer weights are about 850 pounds. This is another 40 pounds of beef per animal given the normal seasonal decline in weights that should be observed. This is a substantial increase in beef tonnage.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday, as traders appeared to take stock after last week’s strong gains.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 17¢ higher, from 30¢ lower in near Aug.

Feeder Cattle were an average of 57¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in the back contract. Pressure included stronger Corn futures prices.

Negotiated cash fed trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300 with some up to $306.

The weighted weekly average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.60 higher at $188.54. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 higher at $299.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Monday afternoon at $312.70/cwt. Select was $1.95 higher at $299.35/cwt.

Kansas City Wheat futures rallied Monday, up 24¢ to 34¢ through Dec ’25 heading into the close on concerns about crop damage in the Ukraine and Russia, and leading Corn. Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ‘25. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 18¢ higher through Aug ’25. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed Mixed Monday with tech stocks leading the positive side.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 18¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

“Conditions at the beginning of the 2024 forage growing season suggest that producers may be able to plan grazing and hay production with less restriction compared to recent years,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, in many cases, pastures and ranges still need time to recover from extended drought conditions.” He points out there is currently less drought in the U.S. than at any time in the past four years.

Nationally, 49% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Good (40%) or Excellent (9%) the week ending May 19, according to the latest weekly Crop Progress report. That was 12% more than a year earlier. On the other end of the scale, 20% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (7%), which was 9% less than a year earlier. The only key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor were New Mexico (59%) and Texas (38%).

“There is reason to be cautiously optimistic for better cattle production conditions in 2024,” Peel says. “However, the forecasted redevelopment of La Niña conditions this summer is worrisome. The seasonal forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the next three months in much of major beef cattle country. Proceed with caution.” 

As for row crops, corn planting made up some ground last week but continued to lag with 70% in the ground which was 6% less than the same time last year and 1% less than the five-year average. 40% was emerged versus 46% a year earlier and 39% for average.

Similarly, soybean planting was 9% less than a year earlier at 52% but was 3% ahead of the average. 26% of soybeans were emerged, compared to 31% a year earlier and 21% for average.

As for winter wheat, 69% was headed, compared to 58% a year earlier and 57% for average. 49% was rated as Good (42%) or Excellent (7%), compared to 31% a year earlier. 18% was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (5%) compared to 40% a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to active on good demand elsewhere, through Friday afternoon according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300. Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were mostly $295.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales in the Texas Panhandle at $186, where prices the previous week were $184.

Fed cattle prices were supported by slower packer production helping to boost wholesale beef prices. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Friday afternoon at $313.45/cwt., the highest level since March. Select was 89¢ higher at $297.40/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $18.88 higher and Select was $13.23 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.9 million head was 570,000 head fewer than the (-4.5%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.1 billion pounds was 220.6 million pounds less (-2.1%).

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, amid stronger boxed beef values and higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.21 higher, from 67¢ higher at the back to $2.02 higher at the front. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $3.92 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.03 higher. They were an average of $7.87 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 14’9¢ lower through the front six contracts.

On Friday, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through May ’25 and then 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Increased U.S. beef imports — mostly lean trim for grinding — continue enabling added value to decreasing domestic production.

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee provides illustration in his weekly market comments.

“The retail price of a chuck roast in April was $7.52 per pound, compared to $5.28 per pound for ground chuck. The $2.24 per pound difference in chuck roast and ground chuck demonstrates the importance of lean beef imports to support ground beef demand domestically, because a whole muscle cut clearly has a higher value as is compared to placing it in the grind mix. The same can be said for a round roast which had an average retail value of $6.86 per pound,” Griffith explains. “It is extremely important to note these price differences, because folks in the cattle industry are attempting to market cattle and beef products to their highest value and the ability to import lean grinding beef allows packers to market items such as the chuck and round as roasts instead of placing them in the grind mix.”

First-quarter U.S. beef imports of 1.2 billion pounds were 25% more year over year and 44% more than the five-year average, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. U.S. beef imports this year are forecast at 4.2 billion pounds. That would be a 12% increase year over year and the first time beef imports exceed 4 billion pounds, according to ERS.

“The U.S. beef trade balance is expected to show a widening deficit (imports higher than exports) in 2024 and 2025,” say ERS analysts. “With domestic beef production expected to fall about 6% in 2025, annual exports are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds, representing an 11% decrease year over year … The combination of fewer supplies available to export, higher beef prices in the United States, and increased competition from Oceania will continue to create challenges for the expansion of U.S. beef exports.”

Cattle futures extended further Thursday, buoyed by another day of higher wholesale beef prices, bullish outside markets and a positive reading of export demand.

Net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 the week ending May 9 of 15,100 metric tons were 23% more than the previous week, but 11% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, China, Taiwan, Mexico and South Korea.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.38 higher Thursday afternoon at $310.15/cwt. Select was $2.20 higher at $296.51/cwt.

Heading into the close and before settlement…

Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.40 higher, receiving added support from softer Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $186-$190/cwt. and a few dressed delivered sales at $298-$300.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Grain futures softened again Thursday.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 1¢ lower through Sep ’25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ‘25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to 76¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased this year’s expected annual average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $1, compared to the previous month’s forecast, to $255.46/cwt., in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices increased in the second quarter by $5 to $255 and by $2 in the third quarter to $263. The average fourth-quarter price was reduced $3 to $264. Price increases in the second and third quarters assume adequate forage supplies and declines in forecast corn season average prices. The 2025 feeder average steer price forecast is $259.00.

On the other side of the fence, as reported in Cattle Current Monday, ERS reduced the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Cattle futures extended gains, supported by recently resurgent wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 47¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.38 higher Wednesday afternoon at $306.77/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $294.31/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures were lower again on likely profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 7¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through May ‘25. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices jumped higher Wednesday on encouraging inflation news.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 349 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 231 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 48¢ to 84¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Domestic U.S. beef demand continued to be extraordinarily resilient in the face of continued high retail prices.

“The USDA all-fresh beef retail price was at $7.89 per pound in March. A new all-time high for that month,” according to Rabobank analysts, in their April North American agribusiness review.  “The stronger price trend pushed first-quarter 2024 consumer beef demand to its second-highest level in the last 30 years.”

The Choice beef retail price in March was $8.12 per pound, which was 48 cents higher (+6.3%) year over year. During the same period, the composite broiler retail price was about 2 cents higher at $2.43 (+0.1%) and retail pork value was up about 4 cents (+0.1%) at $4.79.

More specifically, ground beef prices were 6.1% higher year over year at $5.13 per pound. Choice, boneless chuck roast was 9.4% higher at $6.73 and the Choice sirloin steak price was up 12.2% at $11.54.

Conversely, boneless chicken breast was 5.1% less at about $4.11 per pound. Boneless ham (not canned) was 1.8% less at $5.57 and bacon was fractionally lower at $6.61. Pork chop prices (all) were 2.2% higher at about $4.26.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by slower packer production which is helping lift wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.29 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Turning to row crops, heading into the close, front-month Grain futures were softer on likely profit taking and producer selling.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday as investors awaited key inflation reports this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 122 points.

******************************

The percentage of heifers in the fed cattle mix must drop below the long-run average of just over 37% — likely 35-36% — in order for the next herd expansion to begin, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“There is no indication that is happening yet,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He explains heifer slaughter, as a percentage of fed cattle slaughter was 40% last year, as high as it has ever been. Although fractionally lower year over year, it was 40.5% in the first quarter this year.

“In most cases, the total increase in the cow herd from trough to peak is 2.2 to 2.9 million head, an increase of 5.8% to 9.4%,” Peel explains, reflecting on cattle cycles since 1975. “The corresponding increase in replacement heifers ranged from 1.1 to just over 1.2 million head in three of the four cycles. The most recent cycle, from 2014-2019, was different in that the increase in beef replacement heifers started prior to herd expansion and ended prior to the peak in herd inventory. This is likely an indication that there was pent up desire to expand that was delayed due to drought in 2011-2013.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday as traders appeared to wait for further cash direction.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 46¢ lower to an average of 22¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle closed were an average of 37¢ higher, except for 67¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and mainly steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $295.

The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was 20¢ higher at$185.94. The weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was 63¢ higher at $295.28.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.38 higher Monday afternoon at $298.95/cwt. Select was $3.01 higher at $287.18/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Monday, with follow-through support from Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and planting delays.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25.

Kansas City Wheat futures 16¢ to 25¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

Soybean were mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher through 2025. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 47 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Hay stocks on farms May 1 of 21 million tons were 6.7 million tons more than the previous year (+47%), according to the latest USDA Crop Production report.

“To be fair, hay stocks on May 1, 2023, were as low as they had been since 2013. But a year-over-year increase of this magnitude is noteworthy and confirms that hay supply has continued to increase after a very challenging year in 2022,” says Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

Burdine explains the widespread drought in 2022 tightened hay supplies across most of the nation.

“Producers responded by harvesting more hay acres in 2023, resulting in a 6.3% increase in all hay production,” Burdine says. He adds hay production increased as beef cow numbers decreased, which impacted total hay needs.

Regionally, Burdine notes hay stocks were significantly higher year-over-year in the Southern Plains, fairly static in the Southeast and significantly lower in the upper Midwest.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 622,000 head was the same as a week earlier but 22,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 11.4 million head was 527,000 head less (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.6 billion pounds was 208.8 million pounds less (-2.1%) less than a year earlier.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ lower Friday afternoon at $294.57/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $284.17/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 37¢ higher but Select was $3.48 lower.

Cattle futures were mixed Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 83¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower to an average of 21¢ higher with the front months pressured by Corn futures. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.19 lower week to week on Friday.Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, supported by the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below), which were less bearish than expected.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 21¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 9¢ to 13¢ higher through May ’25, and then mostly 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ higher through Sep ’24, and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 5 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.

The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25¢ from 2023/24.

SoybeansThe 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023/24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023/24.

The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42¢ per pound, down 6¢ from 2023/24.

Wheat

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6% from 2023/24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11% above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.

The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday, on weaker boxed beef cutout values and the lack of cash direction.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 lower.

Front month Cattle futures were trending mixed early in today’s session.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from at a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to mostly inactive on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 lower Thursday afternoon at $295.39/cwt. Select was $2.49 lower at $285.76/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending May 2 of 12,300 metric tons for 2024 were down 45% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, and Canada.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with likely producer selling and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean were 9¢ to 20¢ lower through Aug ‘25.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices crawled higher Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 331 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 37¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Cull cow prices continue higher year over year — helped along by the ground beef market — will increase with herd expansion, says James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

“After several years of liquidation, the available supply of beef cows becomes tight, and cull cow prices increase,” Mitchell explains. “The next few years should support cull cow prices when the expansion phase of the next cattle cycle begins and fewer cull cows find their way to sale barns.”

So far this year, Mitchell says cull cow prices are averaging $1.03 per pound more (+53%) year over year. He adds that, based on research, cull cows represent 15-30% of gross revenue for producers.

“We can use several marketing and management strategies to improve the value of cull cows further,” Mitchell says. “Improving body condition score and cow health can mean more total pounds and better cull cow quality, which both impact the total value of cull cows. Price seasonality is another important consideration, with the lowest prices occurring in the fall when most producers sell cull cows.”

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday on wobbly boxed beef values and the lack of weekly cash fed cattle direction.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.18 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Wednesday afternoon at $296.67/cwt. Select was $4.09 lower at $288.25/cwt.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with likely producer selling and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 10¢ to 15¢ lower through Jly ’25. Soybean were mostly 12¢ to 21¢ lower through Mar ‘25. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 172 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 29 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 31¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply in April, based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. If fell 15 points from March to 99, the lowest since June 2022.

Worries about current financial situation on farms and ranches, and anticipated financial challenges in the coming year, drove the decline. The Current Condition Index dropped by 18 points to 83, while the Future Expectations Index fell by 14 points to 106.

“Farmers’ sentiment took a significant hit in April, reflecting broader concerns about financial performance and farmland values,” explains James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Farm Financial Performance Index declined to 76 in April, which was 7 points less than the previous month and 21 points less than last fall’s peak of 97. The decline reflects producers’ increasing concerns about the upcoming year’s financial outlook, according to Ag Barometer analysts, with fewer respondents expecting better or equal performance than last year.

The April Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from April 8-12, 2024.

Cattle futures bounced back Tuesday, supported by resurgent wholesale beef values.

Toward the close and ahead of settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Wholesale beef prices continued to firm, offering hopes that the seasonal rally has begun.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $298.49/cwt. Select was $2.59 higher at $292.34/cwt.

Grain futures softened Tuesday amid likely producer selling. Heading into the close, Corn futures were narrowly mixed from fractionally lower to 3¢ lower in the front three contracts and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher through Dec ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 15¢ lower through May ‘25. However, Soybean were mostly 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher, but the NASDAQ was down 16 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 10¢ to 13¢ lower   through the front six contracts.

******************************

Increased slaughter levels and heavier dressed weights are boosting domestic beef production, but so is trade, says David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service.

“Beef imports in the first quarter of the year totaled 1.2 billion pounds, 25% more than last year.  Exports were 6% less, or 46 million pounds, lower than last year,” Anderson explains, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets.  “Combining the increase in imports and decrease in exports means that about an additional 285 million pounds of beef were added to total beef supplies in the first quarter. That’s about 0.86 pounds of beef, per capita.”

Increased beef production has likely contributed to wholesale beef price struggles, according to Anderson.

“Only the Choice chuck and round are above a year ago. The rib and loin are below a year ago, and their weakness might suggest other problems beyond just larger supplies, especially getting close to Memorial Day,” Anderson explains. “On the positive side, this increase in beef production will be temporary. Reduced placements will begin to move the number of cattle on feed lower. If weights continue to be larger than a year ago the total number of cattle processed will decline further.”

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 27¢ higher through the front five contracts, buoyed by last week’s stronger cash trade and then unchanged to an average of 61¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.28 lower with pressure from nearby Corn contracts.

Heading into the close Monday Grain and Soybean futures continued higher as traders appeared to bet on planting progress delays in the weekly Crop Progress report (see below).

Corn futures were mostly 7¢ to 10¢ higher through near Sep.

Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 18¢ to 20¢ higher through Jly ’25.

Soybean were 21¢ to 32¢ higher through near Sep.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $184/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $294-$295 and mostly $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $295.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $1.59 higher at $185.74. The average dressed delivered steer price was 26¢ higher at $294.65.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.56 higher Monday afternoon at $298.76/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $289.75/cwt.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday, with follow-trough support from Fridays jobs report, which was weaker than expected, elevating hopes the Fed can cut interest rates sooner than later.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 176 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 192 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to 58¢ higher  through the front six contracts.

******************************

Pasture and range is starting the season off in significantly improved condition than last year, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending May 5.

Nationwide, 46% of pasture and range was rated as Good (38%) and Excellent (8%), compared to 33% a year earlier. 25% was rated Poor (15%) and Very Poor (10%) compared to 37% the same week last year.

However, corn planting lost some ground last week with 36% in the ground compared to 42% at the same time last year and 39% for the five-year average. 12% was emerged versus 10% a year earlier and 9% for average.

As for soybeans, 25% were planted, which was 5% less than the same week last year but 4% more than average. 9% of soybeans were emerged, compared to 7% a year earlier and 4% for average.

Winter wheat condition held about steady week to week and was significantly improved year over year. 50% was rated as Good (44%) or Excellent (6%), compared to 29% a year earlier. 16% were rated as Poor (11%) or Very Poor (5%) compared to 44% a year earlier. 43% of the crop was headed, compared to 34% the previous year and 32% for average.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Friday, extending gains from the previous session and supported by higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ higher., except for 12¢ lower in the spot month. They were an average of $2.39 lower week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 32¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 13¢ higher. They were an average of $5.38 lower week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the Southern Plains ranged from slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $184/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $295 and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.30 higher Friday afternoon at $294.20/cwt. Select was 33¢ lower at $287.65/cwt. However, week to week on Friday, Choice was $2.94 lower and Select was $1.07 lower.

Total estimated cattle slaughter of 619,000 head last week was 6,000 more than the previous week but 2,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.8 million head was 509,700 head fewer (-4.5%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 9.0 billion pounds was 214.1 million pounds less (-2.3%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday as traders added weather premiums.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 13¢ higher through May ’25. and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ higher through Aug ’25 and then mostly 7¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices surged higher Friday, buoyed by a weaker jobs report than expected, which boosted hopes about reining back inflation.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.9%, according to the Employment Situation Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings in April for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 7¢ (+0.2%) to $34.75. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 450 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 315 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 35¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although 10% less year over year, March U.S. beef exports were the most of 2024, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). March exports totaled 102,218 metric tons (mt). Export value was $889.9 million, down 0.3% from a year ago but the highest in nine months.

March beef export value equated to $454.62 per head of fed slaughter, the highest since mid-2022.

Beef exports for the first quarter (Jan. through Mar.) totaled 311,865 mt, down 4% from the first quarter of last year. Export value increased 6% to $2.48 billion.

“Beef demand in the Caribbean was outstanding in March, and we continued to see a strong rebound in the Middle East as well as some positive signs in Korea and Japan, where the foodservice recovery is making progress,” says Dan Halstrom USMEF president and CEO. “It’s a challenging situation in terms of supply availability, but the value U.S. beef commands internationally is very encouraging – as evidenced by March export value climbing to more than $450 per head.”

U.S. pork exports of 260,430 mt in March were 0.1% more than a year earlier. Pork export value was 2% higher year over year at $740.8 million.

Cattle futures rallied back Thursday, fueled by confirmation that no traces of Bovine Influenza A virus (BIAV) were found in ground beef samples by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).

“Samples were collected at retail outlets in the states in which dairy cattle herds have tested positive for H5N1 influenza virus. The samples were analyzed by APHIS using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), to indicate whether any viral particles were present. No virus particles were found to be present,” according to the APHIS statement.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.37 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.26 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $187/cwt. and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $1 higher at $294-$295.

FOB live prices in the Southern Plains last week were $182.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 64¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $292.90/cwt. Select was 9¢ lower at $287.98/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Apr. 25 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were a marketing-year high — up 48% from the previous week and up 38% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China and Mexico.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures surged higher Thursday with weather premiums tied to planting delays.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 11¢ to 12¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 22¢ to 34¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 14¢ to 19¢ higher. Weekly U.S. export sales provided added support. Net sales of 414,000 metric tons for 2023-24 were up 96% from the previous week and were 45% more than the prior four-week average.

Cattle futures tried to overcome the Bovine Influenza A virus headlines but couldn’t, taking another step lower Wednesday.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 lower (67¢ to $2.30 lower). 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.55 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184-$185 in Nebraska and $184-$186 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $293.54/cwt. Select was $1.88 lower at $288.07/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ‘25. Soybean were mostly 5¢ higher through Jly ‘25.  Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ‘25.

Cattle futures softened Monday, taking a break from last week’s gains and amid likely profit taking and month-end positioning.

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ lower (32¢ to $1.35 lower), except for 77¢ higher in spot Apr. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 42¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., mostly $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $294-$295 in Nebraska and $294 in the western Corn Belt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.48 higher at $182.67. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.04 higher at $294.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 39¢ higher Monday afternoon at $297.53/cwt. Select was $1.49 higher at $290.21/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were fractionally lower through Mar ‘25. Soybean were 1¢ to 4¢ higher through Nov. ‘24. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by tech stocks and corporate earnings once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 146 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 55 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 48¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Assuming no further complications from Bovine Influenza A virus (BIAV) in dairy cattle, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock Marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says cattle markets should move forward based on fundamentals.

“Calf prices normally reach a seasonal peak at the end of the first quarter, so steer calf prices may not recover fully to the March highs,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “However, the strong general uptrend in cattle markets likely means calf prices may move more sideways for a period before moving higher in the later part of the year. Concern about summer grazing conditions could temper stocker demand in the next month or so.”

Peel notes heavyweight feeder cattle prices have bounced more than calf prices since BIAV applied pressure, buoyed by recovery in Feeder futures and seasonal tendencies for higher prices from now through the middle of the year.

“Despite the unexpected shocks that have impacted feeder markets, feeder prices are proving to be very resilient,” Peel says. “Feedlot demand is strong as feedlots chase limited feeder cattle supplies, spurred on by declining feedlot cost of gain.  For all feeder cattle, both calves and big feeders, the highest prices of the year are expected in the fourth quarter.”

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by stronger cash fed cattle prices to end the week, as well as weekly gains in Choice wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 56¢ higher. They were an average of $3.82 higher week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.07 higher. They were an average of $6.60 higher week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., mostly $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $294-$295 in Nebraska and $294 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ higher Friday afternoon at $297.14/cwt. Select was 94¢ lower at $288.72/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 613,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.2 million head was 505,000 head fewer (-4.7%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date beef production of 8.5 billion pounds was 229.6 million pounds less (-2.6%).

Turning to row crops, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ higher. Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mixed, fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Jan ’25 and then fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by tech stocks and positive corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 153 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 51 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 316 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 28¢ to 48¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued its final rule for Animal Disease Traceability (ADT) Friday. For interstate movement, the rule requires official ear tags for certain classes of cattle and bison be readable both visually and electronically. The final rule applies to all sexually intact cattle and bison 18 months of age or older, all dairy cattle, cattle and bison of any age used for rodeo or recreation events, and cattle or bison of any age used for shows or exhibitions.

“USDA’s final traceability rule updates the existing requirement for animal identification that has been in place since 2013, switching from solely visual tags to tags that are both electronically and visually readable for certain classes of cattle moving interstate,” explains Mark Eisele, a Wyoming rancher and president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). “Many producers are already familiar with using these visual tags and under the new rule, they will instead use electronic tags. NCBA has worked hard to secure $15 million in funding for producers to reduce the cost of implementing this change. We also remain committed to safeguarding producers’ private data and continuing to reduce the cost of ear tags for farmers and ranchers. Our industry faces a tremendous threat from the risk of a future foreign animal disease on American soil. To avoid devastating financial losses during a potential outbreak and to help producers quickly return to commerce, we need an efficient animal disease traceability system.”

APHIS is currently providing electronic ID tags at no cost to producers. Producers should contact their State Veterinarian to obtain the free tags. The rule will not take effect for six months to provide time for producers to prepare.

“Rapid traceability in a disease outbreak will not only limit how long farms are quarantined, keep more animals from getting sick, and help ranchers and farmers get back to selling their products more quickly – but will help keep our markets open,” says Michael Watson, APHIS Administrator. 

One of the most significant benefits of the rule for farmers and ranchers will be the enhanced ability of the United States to limit impacts of animal disease outbreaks to certain regions, which is the key to maintaining our foreign markets, according to APHIS. By being able to readily prove disease-free status in non-affected regions of the nation, the U.S. will be able to request foreign trading partners recognize disease-free regions or zones instead of cutting off trade for the entire country. Traceability of animals is necessary to establish these disease-free zones and facilitate reestablishment of foreign and domestic market access with minimum delay in the wake of an animal disease event.

The final rule affects 11% of the U.S. cattle herd, according to NCBA.

More information is available at the APHIS ADT page.

Heading into Wednesday’s close, Cattle futures were sharply lower, pressured by news that viral fragments of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) were found in pasteurized milk during the ongoing investigation into Bovine Influenza A virus found in dairy cattle. Although there is no reason to doubt the safety of pasteurized milk, the headlines made traders skittish.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.32 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $182/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $183 in Nebraska and $184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.66 lower Wednesday afternoon at $295.74/cwt. Select was $2.34 lower at $290.42/cwt.

Heading into the close, wheat was higher again based on weather concerns.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 14¢ to 17¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 5¢ lower through Mar ‘25.

Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed through Jly ‘25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices ended Wednesday little changed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 42 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 16 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 17¢ to 50¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Total pounds of beef in freezers Feb. 29 were 6% less than the previous month and 12% less than a year earlier, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were down 1% from the previous month and down 12% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 4% less month to month and 13% less year over year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 1% from the previous month and down 5% from a year ago.

Cattle futures were mixed with Live Cattle taking a breather and awaiting weekly cash direction while last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report continued helping lift Feeder Cattle.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 69¢ higher. Live Cattle futures mixed, from an average of 63¢ lower in the front five contracts to an average of an average of 84¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182/cwt., in the Southern Plains, mostly $183 in Nebraska and $184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.47 higher Tuesday afternoon at $297.40/cwt. Select was 89¢ higher at $292.76/cwt.

Heading into the close Tuesday, Wheat futures were the grain the complex higher again, based on weather concerns and apparent short covering.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

Soybean futures were 1¢ to 5¢ higher through Nov ‘24.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday, fueled by strong quarterly corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 263 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 245 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.01 to $1.44 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures surged higher Monday, supported by Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report, which indicated fewer March placements than expected.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.56 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.71 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., mostly $1 lower in Nebraska at mainly $183 and $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $292-$293 and $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $292 in a light test.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.17 lower at $182.67/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 74¢ lower at $292.35.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 26¢ higher Monday afternoon at $295.93/cwt. Select was $1.04 higher at $291.87/cwt.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by tech stocks and easing tension in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 253 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 169 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 12¢ to 32¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

The latest Cattle on Feed report might be pointing toward moderating beef heifer liquidation.

“Heifers made up 38.5% of total feedlot inventories (April 1), down from 39.7% in January,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. “While the heifer percentage in feedlots remains above the average of the past 10 years, the decline from January to April is an encouraging sign that heifer feeding is perhaps slowing. During rapid herd expansion in 2015-2017, the heifer percentage of feedlot inventories dropped below 34% and averaged below 33% for 10 consecutive quarters. Heifer feeding is expected to decrease significantly more in the coming months.”

Reflecting on Friday’s report in his weekly market comments, Peel also explains stubbornly high feedlot inventories stem more from the slower pace of marketings than placements.

In fact, Peel says monthly average feedlot placements (12-month moving average) in March were the least since April 2017. Total placements during the last six months are 2.3% less than the same period last year.

At the same time, the pace of marketing has declined faster than placements as dwindling numbers of cattle are being fed for longer periods.

“Feedlots have an incentive to keep inventories as close to capacity as possible. One way is to slow down the turnover rate, effectively making fewer cattle turn into larger inventories,” Peel explains. “The result is more days on feed and heavier carcass weights. Steer carcass weights have averaged 25 pounds heavier year over year for the past four weeks, with heifer carcasses over 21 pounds heavier. There are limits to how much feedlots can slow marketings, but feedlots are expected to push carcass weights as far as possible in the coming months. Feedlot inventories are expected to decline in the next few months despite feedlot actions to delay the inevitable.” 

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday with uncertainty about the Cattle on Feed report, which ultimately proved to be likely supportive (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 12¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 5¢ lower in three contracts. They were an average of $4.20 higher week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 57¢ lower. They were an average of $6.82 higher week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains and Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade in the western Corn Belt was slow on light to moderate demand.

FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., mostly $1 lower in Nebraska at $183 and $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184. Dressed delivered prices were $1 lower at $292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ lower Friday afternoon at $295.67/cwt. Select was $1.56 higher at $290.83/cwt.

Last week, estimated total cattle slaughter of 620,000 head was 17,000 head more than the previous week but 5,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 9.5 million head was 486,000 head fewer (-4.7%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 8 billion pounds was 233.9 million pounds less (-2.8%). For broader context, estimated total year-to-date red meat production is 1.3% less.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures rallied Friday with likely short covering.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher, with added support from the Environmental Protection Agency’s emergency fuel waiver to allow E15 gasoline — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol — to be sold during the summer driving season. 

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 16¢ higher through Jan ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday with pressure from tech stocks and geo-political concerns about the Mideast conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 211 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 319 points.

******************************

Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to supportive with fewer feedlot placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, March placements of 1.7 million head were 246,000 head fewer than the same time last year, which was 12.3% less and about 4% fewer than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 34% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 53% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in March of 1.7 million head were 271,000 head fewer (-13.7%) than last year. That was about 2% less than estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle on feed April 1 of 11.8 million head were 174,000 head more (+1.5%) than a year earlier, which was in line with expectations.

Heifers on feed April 1 0f 4.6 million head were 39% of the mix and 1% more than the same time last year.

Cattle futures gained Thursday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Export sales also provided support.

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending April 11 were 17,700 metric tons for 2024, according to the weekly U.S. Export Sales report. That was 30% more than the previous week and 27% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan and Mexico.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.46 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.65 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184 in Nebraska and $185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.01 lower Thursday afternoon at $295.80/cwt. Select was $1.61 lower at $289.27/cwt.

Turning to row crops before the close, Corn futures mostly 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Jly ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices drifted to a narrowly mixed close Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 22 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 81 points.

******************************

An estimated 42% of cattle were in areas affected by abnormal dryness or drought the week ending April 16, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. That was 15% less than the same week last year. That was with 38.6% of the U.S. experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, compared to 46.5% a year earlier.

“Over the next five days (April 19-23), more heavy precipitation is expected in the Plains and Midwest,” according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Summary. “Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota could see upwards of 2.5 inches of precipitation. Northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas could see 1.5 to 2 inches of precipitation. Areas of higher elevation in the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming are also expected to see between 1-2 inches.

“The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s six to 10-day outlook (Valid April 22) favors above-normal precipitation for southern parts of the U.S., particularly along the eastern Gulf Coast from Texas and Louisiana into parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma. Florida is also favoring above-normal precipitation.”

Looking further ahead, there is an 85% chance the current El Niño transitions to neutral by April to June, according to the Climate Prediction Center. There is a 60% chance of La Niña developing by June-August and an 85% chance of La Niña conditions in the northern hemisphere by this fall and early winter.

Cattle futures drifted Wednesday as traders awaited cash direction. Likely, there was added hesitancy ahead of Friday monthly Cattle on Feed report. Estimates see placements being 8% less year over year and marketings down 12% for an April 1 inventory about 2% higher.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures mixed, from an average of 28¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 27¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 24¢ lower, except for 15¢ higher in spot Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184 in Nebraska and $185 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $293 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 lower Wednesday afternoon at $296.78/cwt. Select was $1.76 lower at $290.88/cwt.

Turning to row crops toward the close, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower through Dec ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 8¢ to 13¢ lower through Jly ’25. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher through Jan ’25. 

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 181 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) was 5¢ to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected second-quarter feeder steer price by $3 to $250/cwt. in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. The increase was based on recent price data and stronger first-quarter placements leaving fewer calves available for placement in the second quarter.

Compared to the previous month, price expectations (basis 750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) were little changed for the rest of this year: $261 in the third quarter and $267 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $254.46.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, ERS increased projected five-area direct average fed steer prices for the remainder of this year in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, based on recent data and expected strength in demand, forecast prices increased $2 in the second quarter to $185/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $184 and $4 in the fourth quarter to $190. The annual average price increased $2 to $185.

That was with beef production estimated 130 million pounds more at 26.5 billion pounds. Forecast production was raised on heavier weights and increased slaughter.

“Despite concerns in the futures market, cash prices remain strong, and prices may have peaked sooner than normal, but fundamentals remain for slaughter to increase in the second quarter,” ERS analysts say.

Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday for the second consecutive session, perhaps establishing a bottom.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.38 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184 in Nebraska and $185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 lower Tuesday afternoon at $298.02/cwt. Select was $1.30 higher at $292.64/cwt.

Turning to row crops, heading into the close, Corn and Soybean futures were lower again with likely pressure from positive weather and the early planting pace. According to USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, 6% of corn was in the ground, which was 1% more than the five-year average; and 3% of soybeans were planted, which was 2% more than average.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Dec ‘25. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 13¢ lower through Jly ’25. However, Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday as investors wrestle with sticky inflation and the prospects of a longer period before the Fed can reduce interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 19 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although Choice boxed beef cutout values are a touch higher than this time last year, David Anderson, Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service says some see weakness compared to higher year-over-year calf and fed cattle prices.

“Several factors are at work in cutout value,” Anderson says in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). “In some ways, the market is in the winter-to-spring transition period, moving from winter-time roasts and other end cuts to steaks for grilling season. Primal cut values for chucks and rounds have been declining while the primal loin has been increasing. The rib and wholesale ribeye values have not increased seasonally heading into grilling season. Lean beef for ground beef has soared in value while 50% lean has remained depressed.”

Anderson notes counter-seasonally heavier carcass weights fostered by positive weather, cheaper feed and longer feeding periods.

“Beef grading Choice has increased by more than one percentage point, to over 74%, about the same as last year, while Prime is 1.5 percentage points higher than a year ago, at 11.5%,” Anderson says. “When combined with larger beef production, the grading percentages mean that we have more Prime and Choice beef than this time last year. Increased Choice supplies and fewer Select supplies are helping to pressure the Choice-Select spread to under $5 per cwt.”

Cattle futures bounced back some Monday with likely short covering.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.86 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.51 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $182/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182, $3 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $293 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $293.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.89 lower at $183.84. The average dressed delivered steer price was $3.78 lower at $293.09.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ higher Monday afternoon at $300.88/cwt. Select was $4.20 lower at $291.34/cwt.

Turning to row crops, heading into the close, Grain and Soybean futures gave back gains from the previous session with likely producer selling.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through May ’25. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 15¢ lower through Jan ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Monday after support early in the session, as Treasury yields surged higher.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services in March were up 0.7% month to month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That was significantly more than expected, adding to inflation bearishness. Retail sales were 4.0% more than the previous year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 61 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 290 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) was little changed through the front six contracts.

******************************

Since the start of February, fed steer carcass weights increased counter-seasonally to 924 lbs., about 25 lbs. heavier year over year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He adds that fed heifer carcass weights are 19 lbs. heavier than a year ago.

“Fed carcass weights are impacted both by long-term trends and current market conditions,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Carcass weights have trended heavier for over 60 years with steer carcass weights increasing by an average of 4.0 lbs. per year, up over 240 lbs. from 660 lbs. in the 1960s to over 900 lbs. in recent years. Heifer carcass weights have increased by an average of 4.5 lbs. per year over the same period.”

Besides the trend over time, Peel says carcass weights are being boosted by moderating feed costs and the incentive to feed cattle longer as way to maintain feedlot inventories.

“Kansas feedlot data shows that steers are currently averaging 190 days on feed, up 9 days from one year ago and about 40 days longer than a decade ago,” Peel says. “Increasing carcass weights are the result of more days on feed combined with changing cattle genetics and use of feeding technology, such as implants, ionophores and beta agonists.”

On the plus side, more days on feed adds Quality Grade. However, longer feeding periods also decrease Yield Grade. Although steady the past four years, Peel points out the percentage of Prime and Choice cattle increased from about 68% in 2010 to current levels near 85%. During the same period, he says the percentage of Yield Grade 4 and 5 cattle has generally increased, from less than 9% to an average of nearly 20%.

“The average increase in Yield Grade 4 and 5 cattle has been especially pronounced in the last year,” Peel says. “Thus far in 2024, the percentage of Yield Grade 4 and 5 cattle has averaged 23.7%.”

Cattle futures sank lower Friday with pressure including the bounce higher in grain futures, more cases of Bovine Influenza A Virus in dairy cattle and struggling outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.39 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.27 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.25 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $182/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182, $3 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $293 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.20 higher Friday afternoon at $300.57/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $295.54/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 603,000 head was 10,000 head fewer than the previous week and 8,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 8.9 million head was 482,000 head fewer (-5.1%) year over year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 7.5 billion pounds was 251.6 million pounds less (-3.3%).

Grain and Soybean futures rallied Friday as funds appeared to exit positions amid risk-off sentiment in equity markets.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday with pressure from inflation concerns and wobbly corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 475 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  59¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Counter-seasonally heavier carcass weights are moderating less cattle slaughter, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

LMIC analysts note in the latest Livestock Monitor that dressed steer and heifer carcass weights have risen the past eight weeks.

“Normally fed cattle dressed weights fall, reliably, from January to June and then move up July to November. Some years the seasonal pattern is less pronounced than others, but rarely is the opposite trend seen in cattle dressed weights,” LMCI analysts explain. “At least some of the reason dressed weights are heavier is that marketings have been lower, and the number of cattle on feed over 150 days is higher. Daily marketings in March are estimated to be in the low 80,000s head per day, a small number given that cattle on feed is above a year ago. Cattle on feed more than 150 days reached 2.7 million head in February, resembling numbers seen during the pandemic and post-pandemic supply chain problems.”

Through the first quarter, LMIC analysts say cattle harvest was down an estimated 5%, but average cattle carcass weights were up 2%, meaning that beef production was down 3.5%.

Cattle futures were higher into the close and before settlement on Thursday, despite steady to lower early cash fed cattle prices and recently weaker wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 95¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185 where dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at mostly $293.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in the Texas Panhandle and $187 in Nebraska where dressed delivered prices were $296-$297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher at $298.37/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $295.15.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures were trending lower at the close Thursday with pressure from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Mar ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 11¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through next March.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday with most of the support coming from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 271 points.

Late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed but lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service increased projected five-area direct average fed steer prices for the remainder of this year in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, based on recent data and expected strength in demand, forecast prices increased $2 in the second quarter to $185/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $184 and $4 in the fourth quarter to $190. The annual average price increased $2 to $185.

That was with beef production estimated 130 million pounds more at 26.5 billion pounds. Forecast production was raised on heavier weights and increased slaughter.

Cattle futures lost more ground Wednesday with pressures including heavy carcass weights and announced import restrictions by some states on cattle from states with confirmed cases of Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.72 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas and $187 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $296-$297 in Nebraska and $297 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.86 lower at $298.23/cwt. Select was $3.88 lower at $296.02.

Turning to row crops, heading toward Wednesday’s close, Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 17¢ higher through Dec ’25 which helped drag Corn futures mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher through near Dec.

However, Soybean futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower ahead of Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by another reading of sticky inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index increased 3.5% over the last 12 months, which was more than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 422 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 136 points.

Late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed but higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained some Tuesday with a likely technical bounce.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher, while Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.94 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas and $187 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $296-$297 in Nebraska and $297 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $302.09/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $299.90.

Turning to row crops, positive weather outlooks in the U.S. and South America helped pressure grains Tuesday. Heading toward the close,

Corn futures were down 4¢ to 6¢ through Dec. ’25, Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 13¢ lower through Dec ’25 and Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ lower through the front of the Board.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 52 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 61¢ to $1.15 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Funds exiting long positions pulled the rug from under Cattle futures when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza was confirmed in dairy cattle and linked to a human case soon after. However, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says some price adjustment should already have been expected.

Incidentally, because there is a difference, the American Association of Bovine Practitioners now refers to the virus as Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).

“Beef packer margins are as poor as they have been for over a year. The first quarter typically has the poorest margins and that is where things are,” Koontz explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Pressure to lower fed cattle prices remains to be expected. Cash cattle feeding margins are also relatively even compared to the strength observed in all of 2023. Under such conditions pressure on feeder cattle prices are anticipated. Given these underlying conditions, a rapid return to observed high price levels for fed cattle and calves is unlikely.”

Further, Koontz noted the inventory of cattle on feed for more than 150 days, as calculated from USDA reports, is among the most since the pandemic.

“Therefore, packer leverage in bargaining will remain strong into the second quarter, and the impetus for other heavy placements will be mitigated,” Koontz says. “It is rather possible that the spring market rally has occurred and is over.”

Higher wholesale beef values helped Live Cattle futures firm on Monday.

Live Cattle closed an average of 67¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ lower, except for $1.45 higher in spot Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $187 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.50 lower at $185.73. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.62 lower at $296.87.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.90 higher Monday afternoon at $302.07/cwt. Select was $5.57 higher at $300.27/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 34¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

As reported in the last issue of Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports continued to firm in February, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Although volume was down, value for the month was 10% higher at 830.4 million.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University lent perspective in his weekly market comments Monday. He explained beef exports continue to face headwinds as beef production decreases and beef prices increase in the U.S. market.

“A generally strong U.S. dollar adds additional headwinds, making U.S. beef imports more expensive to international customers,” Peel says. “At the same time, decreasing domestic beef supplies in the U.S., coupled with higher prices, attracts additional beef imports, with the strong dollar adding additional incentive for beef imports.” He explains beef imported to the U.S. typically is lean processing beef to supplement decreasing supplies of non-fed beef in the U.S.

Peel notes decreasing domestic lean beef supplies and strong ground beef prices are pushing both to record price levels.

Moreover, while fed steer and heifer beef production is declining, Peel notes the current large percentage of yield grade 4 and 5 cattle in feedlots means that the supply of fatty (50% lean) trimmings is high relative to lean beef supplies.

Cattle futures plumbed lower Friday with continued concerns about Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in dairy cattle.

Live Cattle closed an average of $3.08 lower ($2.70 to $3.80 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.96 lower ($3.92 to $5.85 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $187 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ higher Friday afternoon at $297.17/cwt. Select was $1.35 lower at $294.70/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 23,000 more than the previous week and 4,000 head more than the same week a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 8.3 million head was 473,000 fewer (-5.4%) year over year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.0 billion pounds was 264.6 million pounds less (-3.7%).

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher through Nov ’24 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices gained Friday on the bullish employment situation.

Total non-farm employment grew by 303,000 in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly more than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls was 12¢ higher in March at $34.69.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 199 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  16¢ to 32¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef exports continue to gain firmer footing, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports reached 103,883 metric tons (mt) in February, down 1% from a year ago, but export value increased 10% to $830.4 million. January-February exports were down 1% to 203,647 mt, while export value increased 9% to $1.59 billion.

February beef export value equated to $412.79 per head of fed slaughter, up 5% from a year ago. The January-February average was $385.78 per head, which was 7% higher.

“Tight beef supplies are definitely a challenge for exporters, and that situation isn’t going to change anytime soon,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “But on a positive note, we are seeing more opportunities for underutilized beef cuts, including the round, shoulder clod and variety meat, in the global marketplace. Demand is strong throughout the Western Hemisphere and the foodservice and hospitality sectors are finally gaining some momentum in key Asian markets such as Korea, where the post-COVID recovery has been slower than anticipated.”

February beef exports to the Caribbean were the largest on record, while demand from Mexico and Central and South America continued to trend higher.

In the other side of the fence, February pork exports increased 14% from a year ago to 250,930 mt, while value jumped 15% to $685.1 million. Through the first two months of 2024, exports increased 10% in both volume (502,354 mt) and value ($1.37 billion).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices are $2-$3 lower at $187/cwt. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

Trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices last week were $186 in the Texas Panhandle and $185-$186 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.15 lower at $297.15/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $296.05/cwt.

Cattle futures edged higher Thursday, but were down sharply lower at mid-session on Friday as concerns about Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza continue to weigh.

Live Cattle closed an average of 89¢ higher (25¢ to $1.25 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher (75¢ to $2.02 higher).

Grain futures closed higher with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25 .and then fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher, except for 3¢ lower in spot May.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Jan ’25  and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices sank Thursday, ahead of Friday’s national employment summary, and amid surging oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 530 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 64 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 228 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.05 to $1.19 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Mar. 28 of 18,700 metric tons for 2024 were 48% more than the previous week and 53% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, Taiwan and Mexico.

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure including softer early cash fed cattle prices, weakening wholesale beef values and continued uncertainty tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans.

Live Cattle closed an average of 74¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.05.

Through Wednesday afternoon, negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

There were some early live delivered trades in Nebraska at $189/cwt. FOB live sales there last week were $189-$190). There were also some early FOB live sales the western Corn Belt at $187, which was $1-$3 lower. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 lower at $296. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $299-$300 in a very light test.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $185-$186 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 lower Wednesday afternoon at $301.30/cwt. Select was $2.07 lower at $296.92/cwt.

Grains and Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  28¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. agricultural producer sentiment increased in March, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index increased 3 points month-to-month to 114. Although the Index of Current Conditions declined 2 points to 101, the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 120.

“Producers’ expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, which could help explain why producers look for financial conditions to improve,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

This month, 48% of respondents said they expect a decline in the U.S. prime interest rate over the next year, which was 13% more than in December. High input costs continue to be producers primary concern.

The March barometer also revealed that many producers are concerned about potential government policy changes affecting their operations following this year’s elections. For instance, 43% of respondents anticipate more restrictive regulations for agriculture; 39% expect taxes impacting agriculture to rise.

The March barometer survey was conducted from March 11-15.

Cattle futures firmed and clawed back a little ground without much conviction on Tuesday after being hammered by panic selling in the previous session, tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.02 higher (50¢ to $1.70 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.43 higher ($1.35 to $3.07 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$186 in Kansas, $189-$190 in Nebraska and $188-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $299-$302 in Nebraska and $299-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 lower Tuesday afternoon at $304.16/cwt. Select was $2.80 lower at $298.99/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 13¢ lower through May ’25. and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 11¢ lower through Jan ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 396 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 156 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.03 to $1.44 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef and pork exports contribute significant value to the value of domestic corn and soybeans, according to an independent study conducted by The Juday Group and released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Nationally, U.S. pork and beef exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 14.6% per bushel to the value of corn and 13.9% per bushel to soybeans in 2023, according to the study.

More specifically, beef and pork exports contributed an estimated 87¢ of bushel value at an average price of $5.95 per bushel. They accounted for 512.7 million bushels of U.S. corn usage, which equated to a market value of $3.05 billion (at an average 2023 corn price of $5.95 per bushel).

Pork exports accounted for 96.8 million bushels of U.S. soybean usage, which equated to a market value of $1.36 billion (at an average price of $14.07 per bushel). They contributed an estimated $1.95 per bushel, at an average price of $14.07 per bushel.

The quality of U.S. corn and soybeans as feed inputs is a key differentiator for U.S. red meat in international markets, says USMEF Chair Randy Spronk, a pork and grain producer from Edgerton, Minn. “Our production practices and the quality of our feed inputs is an important part of the story that USMEF promotes to international customers. How we raise our soybeans, how we raise our corn, how we process our feed and the efficiencies we strive for ‒ those are sustainable practices that help differentiate us from other beef and pork exporters.”

Cattle futures, already weakened by last week’s lower cash fed cattle trade and Choice wholesale beef values, crumbled Monday with another round of panic selling tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans (see below).

Live Cattle closed an average of $4.91 lower (45¢ lower at the back to $6.10 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.91 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Services.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$186, steady to $1lower in Nebraska at $189-$190 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn belt at $188-190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at 299-$302 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $299-300.

The five-area weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.33 lower at $188.23/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.64 lower at $299.49.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ lower Monday afternoon at $305.74/cwt. Select was $1.64 lower at $301.79/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Monday amid rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 5 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 13¢ to 54¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

On Monday, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reported the first human case of novel avian influenza A(H5N1) in Texas.

“The patient became ill following contact with dairy cows presumed to be infected with avian influenza. The patient’s primary symptom was conjunctivitis,” according to the DSHS Health Alert. “This is the second case of avian influenza A(H5N1) identified in a person in the United States and is believed to be associated with the recent detections of avian influenza A(H5N1) in dairy cows announced by the Texas Animal Health Commission. DSHS along with local, regional, state, and federal partners, is investigating this ongoing situation. Avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have only rarely been transmitted from person to person. As such, the risk to the general public is believed to be low; however, people with close contact with affected animals suspected of having avian influenza A(H5N1) have a higher risk of infection.”

Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide some market perspective regarding last week’s confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle, before yesterday’s announced link to a human infection.

“Public perception is of primary concern at the moment,” LMIC analysts say in the latest Livestock Monitor. “So far, no trading partners have backed away from U.S. dairy products as a whole but consumers may have a different view. This story has already been picked up by major U.S. media outlets and circulated. Public perception will also hinge on how the disease spreads within dairy herds and if virus mutations reach a level of public concern. At the moment it does not appear to be transferable from cow to cow. However, it is entering migratory bird season, which increases the chances of wild birds interacting with domesticated animals. Points of transmission can be any shared spaces. Think: water tanks, feed bunks, rafters, etc.”

As for production implications, LMIC analysts explain losses are expected to be significant and short lived for infected cattle.

“There are implications for both down (public perception) and upside (lower production) price risk, but it is still early in the situation to make a definitive call,” say LMIC analysts.

Futures and equity markets were closed on Friday, in observance of Good Friday.

Although Cattle futures firmed at the end of weekly trade, they ended sharply lower week to week, due in part to the previous Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. As mentioned in Cattle Current, feedlot placements in February were 9.7% more year over year and 3.4% more than expected.

Futures also suffered from panic selling earlier in the week that stemmed from confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in dairy cows (see below).

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.22 lower ($3.37 to $5.07 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices softened, too. For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $189-$190 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $188-$190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at $299-$302. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.00 lower week to week on Friday at $306.72/cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $303.43. Friday’s Choice-Select spread of $3.29 was the lowest in about two years.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 586,000 head was 12,000 head fewer than the previous week and 59,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.7 million head was 473,000 head fewer (-5.8%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 6.5 billion pounds was 284.5 million pounds less (-4.2%).

******************************

Calves and feeder cattle sold mixed last week amid struggling futures prices and as this year’s grass cattle orders begin to end.

With that said, the only weekly Friday auction I had to report was for Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction in South Dakota where prices were strongly higher compared to two weeks earlier. Steers weighing 700-749 lbs. sold $10-$12 higher and then $3-$6 higher at 750-849 lbs. Heifers weighing 600-699 lbs. sold $8-$12 higher and then $3 higher at 700-799 lbs. There were 4,318 head on offer.

Week to week on Thursday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.70 lower ($3.12 to $9.57 lower). Added pressure came from a bounce in Corn futures tied to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report.

******************************

Animal health officials continue to investigate an illness among dairy cows that is causing decreased lactation, low appetite, and other symptoms.

Last Monday, USDA, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (FDC) confirmed cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows exhibiting these symptoms. Confirmed cases include two dairy herds in Kansas and two dairy herds in Texas. Later in the week, HPAI was also confirmed in a Michigan dairy herd that recently received cows from Texas. Presumptive positive test results have also been received for additional herds in New Mexico, Idaho, and Texas.

USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed that the strain of the virus found in Michigan is very similar to the strain confirmed in Texas and Kansas, which appears to have been introduced by wild birds. Initial testing found no changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans. While cases among humans in direct contact with infected animals are possible, this indicates that the current risk to the public remains low.

“There continues to be no concern about the safety of the commercial milk supply because products are pasteurized before entering the market, or that this circumstance poses a risk to consumer health,” according to a statement issued by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services (APHIS) on Friday. “Dairies are required to send only milk from healthy animals into processing for human consumption; milk from impacted animals is being diverted or destroyed so that it does not enter the human food supply. In addition, pasteurization has continually proven to inactivate bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk. Pasteurization is required for any milk entering interstate commerce for human consumption.”

Spread of symptoms among the Michigan herd also indicates that HPAI transmission between cattle cannot be ruled out, according to the agencies. USDA and partners have advised veterinarians and producers to practice good biosecurity, test animals before necessary movements, minimize animal movements, and isolate sick cattle from the herd. Among the dairies whose herds are exhibiting symptoms, the affected animals have recovered after isolation with little to no associated mortality reported.

“Milk loss resulting from symptomatic cattle to date is too limited to have a major impact on supply and there should be no impact on the price of milk or other dairy products,” according to the APHIS statement.

Cattle futures gained Thursday, recovering more of the early-week losses as traders positioned for the end of the week and quarter, and ahead of a long weekend.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.49 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ higher, except for 30¢ lower in expiring Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at $186/cwt.

A day earlier FOB live prices were $3 lower in Kansas at $185.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190 in Nebraska and $190-$191 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $308.36/cwt. Select was $2.74 higher at $301.17/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 12,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were 15% more than the previous week and 4% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending Mar. 21. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, China, Mexico and Taiwan.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures climbed higher, up mostly 10¢ to 15¢, fueled by USDA’s Prospective Plantings report (see below).

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mixed: 1¢ lower to 3¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then mostly 8¢ to 10¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday as investors wrapped up the trading week and quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 5 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.17 to $1.89 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Prospective Plantings report surprised some with estimated corn acres this year projected at 90 million acres, about 2 million acres less than expectations. That would be 4.6 million acres less than last year (-4.9%).

Corn stocks Mar. 1 were estimated to be 8.4 billion bu., which was 950.1 million bushels more than a year earlier (+12.9%), according to the latest Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks, 5.1 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 24% from a year earlier. Projected off-farm stocks of 3.3 billion bushels were down 1% from a year ago.

Markets likely viewed the soybean outlook as neutral.

Soybean acres were projected at 86.5 million acres, which would be 2.9 million acres more than last year (+3.5%).

Soybean stocks were estimated at 1.8 billion bushels, up 158.4 million bushels (+9.4%) from a year earlier. Soybean stocks stored on farms were estimated at 933 million bushels, up 24% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks of 912 million bushels were 3% less than last March.

All wheat acres were projected at 47.5 million acres, which was 2.1 million acres less than last year (-4.2%) for comparable states. The projected 2024 winter wheat planted area of 34.1 million acres was 7% less than last year and 1% less than the previous estimate for comparable states.

Wheat stocks were estimated at 1.1 billion bushels, which was 146.2 million bushels more than a year earlier (+15.5%). On-farm stocks were estimated at 272 million bushels, up 20% from last March. Off-farm stocks of 816 million bushels were 14% more than a year ago.

All hay acres were projected to be 1.3 million acres less (-2.4%) than last year.

Cattle futures firmed Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ higher (32¢ to $1.42 higher).

Live Cattle closed an average of 27¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade on Wednesday ranged from a standstill to slow on light demand in Kansas where FOB live prices were $3 lower at $185/cwt. in a light test, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$191 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.51 lower Wednesday afternoon at $308.58/cwt. Select was $1.83 lower at $298.43/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures mostly meandered lower as traders geared up for Thursday’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report from USDA.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday with little economic news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 377 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 83 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 16¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, cattle prices are expected to strengthen this year and next, according to the recently released annual agricultural market baseline outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI). The outlook provides projections through 2033.

More specifically, FAPRI projects the five-area direct fed steer price at $178.57/cwt. this year, $184.59 next year and peaking in 2026 at $185.38. Prices then decline to $154.76 in 2033.

As for calves, basis 600-650-pound steers selling at Oklahoma City, prices are projected at $270.70/cwt. this year, $284.74 next year and peaking in 2026 at $286.19. Prices then decline to $224.71 in 2033.

Net return per beef cows are projected to be $387.30 this year, $469.07 next year and $479.92 in 2026 and $426.31 in 2027. From there, returns decline to $218.71 in 2031 and the declining further to $182.06 in 2033.

Cattle futures sank Tuesday amid uncertainty spun by negative and potentially negative news.

Closest to home, Monday’s announced confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle from herds in Kansas and Texas likely drew the attention of funds and algorithms. The infections appear to be tied to wild birds. There is no threat to the milk or food supply, according to USDA.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) issued a statement also emphasizing HPAI has not been detected in beef cattle. However, NCBA encourages producers to implement enhanced biosecurity measures on their farms and ranches to help protect their herds.”

For broader context, according to NCBA, “Detections of avian influenza in birds are common in the United States. While it is uncommon for HPAI to affect mammals, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has been tracking some limited detections of HPAI in mammalian wildlife for many years in the United States.”

So, the fundamental consequences of the HPAI finding depend on consumers.

Live Cattle closed an average of $3.22 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.48 lower ($1.72 to $5.37 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $311.09/cwt. Select was $1.70 lower  at $300.26/cwt.

There was no AMS cash fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$191 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $302.

******************************

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Tuesday with pressure from apparent farmer selling, month-end and quarter-end positioning as well as positioning ahead of Thursday’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report from USDA.

There was also likely some knee-jerk selling related to the closure of Baltimore Harbor after a cargo ship struck and caused the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge. Maryland Governor, Wes Moore, declared a state of emergency and vessel traffic into and out of the harbor was suspended indefinitely. It’s not that Baltimore Harbor is a huge point of arrival or departure for agricultural commodities. The concern is how the closure of a busy port for other goods could impact other supply chains which could ultimately impact agricultural commodities.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 12¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 68 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 25¢ to 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday, with pressure including Friday’s bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.09 lower (67¢ to $1.52 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 lower (50¢ to $2.37 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191 (a few up to $191.50). Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.09 higher at $189.56/cwt. The dressed delivered steer price was $4.07 higher at $302.13.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 17¢ higher Monday afternoon at $310.89/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $301.96/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ higher through Jly ’25, and then mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher, supported by edible oils.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices softened Monday, with investors appearing to take a breath after last week’s strong gains, while looking toward month-end and quarter-end positioning this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.02 to $1.32 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

More days on feed, increased feeder cattle imports from Mexico and pulling cattle forward are among the factors underpinning persistently high feedlot inventories despite declining cattle numbers overall, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“One of the primary reasons that feedlot inventories have remained as high thus far is due to the continued placement and feeding of heifers,” Peel says. “At some point, increased heifer retention will lead to more pronounced decreases in feedlot inventories, perhaps to levels similar to the 2014 low. It’s not clear when that will happen as herd rebuilding appears to be progressing slowly and drought continues to be a threat to the size of the beef cow herd.”

As mentioned in yesterday’s Cattle Current, cattle on feed March 1 (feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity) was 1.3% more than a year earlier at 11.8 million head, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report. Placements in February were 9.7% more than the previous year and the most for the month since the data series began in 1996.

“Average monthly feedlot inventories continued to climb until the September 2022 peak of 11.8 million head,” Peel explains. “The 12-month moving average of monthly feedlot inventories declined from October 2022 through October 2023 before increasing to the current level of 11.6 million head in March 2024, down 1.8% from the peak.”

Cattle futures closed lower Friday, with likely positioning ahead of what turned out to be a bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.63 lower (87¢ to $2.00 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.24 lower (92¢ to $4.30 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191 (a few up to $191.50). Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.01 lower Friday afternoon at $310.72/cwt. Select was $2.26 lower at $301.47/cwt. Week to week, Choice was $1.18 lower and Select was 93¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 3,000 head less than the previous week but 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.1 million head was 410,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated beef production of 6.0 billion pounds was 250.7 million pounds less (-4.0%).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 20¢ lower, with likely profit taking.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mainly lower Friday with likely profit taking from the week’s strong gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 26 points.

Week to week, the Dow gained 1,761 points. The S&P 500 was up 177 points and the tech-heavy NASDAQ was up 455 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 44¢ to 54¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bearish with more feedlot placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.9 million head in February which was 9.7% more (+160,000 head) year over year and 3.4% more than expectations ahead of the report. Placements were the highest for the month since the series began in 1996.

In terms of placement weights, 36% weighed 699 lbs. or less, 53% weighed 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighed 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in February of 1.8 million head were 3.4% more (+59,000 head), which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed March 1 of 11.8 million head were 1.3% more (+153,000 head) than a year earlier, also in line with pre-report expectations.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $313.73/cwt. Select was $1.02 higher at $303.73/cwt.

Despite the higher cash trade, Cattle futures edged lower Thursday, with some likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle closed an average of 43¢ lower., except for 57¢ higher in spot Apr.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ lower (30¢ to $1.07 lower), except for 62¢ higher in spot Mar.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher, helped along by weekly export numbers.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher, also helped by weekly exports.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, with continued investor optimism about interest rate cuts this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 269 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 32 points higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 20¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Meat remains a favored mainstay among virtually all U.S. consumers, according to the 19th annual Power of Meat report released this week by the Meat Institute and FMI—The Food Industry Association. According to the report, 80% of Americans describe themselves as meat eaters and 98% of households purchase meat. Those numbers are steady year over year.

Economic conditions continue to impact Americans’ shopping and meal choices, with 43% of Americans cutting back on restaurant meals. Of meat eaters who are buying restaurant meals less often, 75% try to recreate restaurant-type meals at home.

At the grocery store, 73% of Americans are making one or more changes to meat purchases to save money – with the most common strategy being to adjust the quantity of meat purchased. Among meat purchasers changing quantities to save money, 30% buy smaller packages to save money immediately, and 42% buy larger bulk packs to save money over time. On the other hand, more than nine in 10 shoppers say they would spend extra on occasion, with holidays, special celebrations and entertaining the top reasons.

Cattle futures closed slightly lower Wednesday, basically in a holding pattern ahead of weekly cash fed cattle trade and Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle closed an average of 37¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 36¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although, too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Kansas at $186/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $187-$189 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$300 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $313.44/cwt. Select was 47¢ lower at $302.71/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 14¢ higher, tied in part of new-crop export announcements.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, with investor optimism tied to the Fed staying on course with interest rates and planned rate cuts as the year unfolds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 401 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 46 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 202 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.02 to $1.79 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Wholesale beef values remain firm with Choice at the highest price levels since last fall. Slower beef production and declining supplies are part of the equation, as is consumer beef demand.

“Choice boxed beef prices remain well over year-ago prices to the tune of $25/cwt., but remain well below the 2023 peak price of $343,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is difficult to predict how high wholesale beef prices will go, given the overall price environment consumers are attempting to wade through with the elevated interest expense and higher overall prices of goods and services.”

On a related note, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) note 90% lean beef was record high last week at $317/cwt., skyrocketing from $245 last December.

“The rally seen this winter is unparalleled by the previous cattle cycle. Fresh 90% lean beef prices have increased by a large magnitude and at a fast pace for this time of year, up 25% from the start of the year,” LMIC analysts explain in the latest Livestock Monitor. “In 2013 the same 10 week spread saw a 6% rise, in 2014 a 15% rise, and in 2015 a 2% decline. In 2014 fresh 90% lean beef prices continued to climb all year and eventually reached $278 in September, a 40% rise from the start of that year. Given that 2024 has increased so quickly, 90% lean prices may not be able to continue climbing at this pace. Put into context, a 40% increase from the start of 2024 would equal a 90% fresh lean price of just over $355 per cwt.”

Total U.S. cow slaughter is down 13% from last year through the first eight weeks of the year, according to LMIC. Beef cow slaughter is down 12%, while dairy cow slaughter is down 15%.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed as traders appeared to wait for the week’s cash direction and looking toward Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle narrowly mixed, from an average of 38¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 25¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 70¢ higher (10¢ to $1.07 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $187-$189 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$300 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 11¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $313.22/cwt. Select was 13¢ higher at $303.18/cwt.

Grain futures firmed Tuesday.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ higher., except for fractionally higher to 2¢ lower in the front five contracts.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 320 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 29 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 63 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 35¢ to 75¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

As key commodity prices tumble, farm income this year will be the lowest since 2020, following record-high levels in 2022, according to the recent annual agricultural market baseline outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI).

Even so, FAPRI director Pat Westhoff notes, “Despite a $30 billion drop in net farm income from 2022 to 2023, and another large projected decline in 2024, net farm income remains above annual levels from 2015 to 2020.”

“Our projections indicate that after near-record prices for several crops in the 2022-23 market year, we can expect a retreat,” says Bob Maltsbarger, FAPRI research economist. “In 2023, we saw crops overcome challenging growing conditions and achieve significant production levels that caused a decline in prices. Another year of trend-line yields, and shifting of planted acreage for key crops, could continue the downward trend of prices.”

The FAPRI outlook provides projections for agricultural and biofuel markets and serves as a point of reference for evaluating alternative scenarios for food and agricultural policy. It offers a summary of 10-year “baseline” projections for several economic indicators, including farm income, farm program spending and domestic commodity markets.

“FAPRI’s spring baseline, and subsequent updates, offer an understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing agricultural markets,” Westhoff says. “As producers and policymakers evaluate volatile market conditions, the analyses and projections we’ve shared can aid in risk mitigation.”

Among other FAPRI outlook findings…

• Lower prices for farm inputs, such as fertilizer, partially offset lower prices but don’t offer enough relief to avoid declines in farmers’ net returns.
• Livestock producers can expect reduced feed costs due to lower corn and soybean prices, offsetting price and demand challenges faced in this sector.

            Cattle prices have been strengthened by drought and other factors and an upward trend is projected for 2024 and 2025.

• Demand-driven price declines for hogs, poultry and milk are expected to continue in 2023 and 2024.
• For consumers, food price inflation slowed in 2023, and FAPRI’s report suggests that this trend could continue in 2024. The consumer price index for food is anticipated increase 2.1% in 2024, with the lion’s share of the increase coming from food away from home.

Strong cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values helped Cattle futures extend gains Monday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.38 higher (70¢ higher at the back to $1.80 higher toward the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 higher ($1.92 to $3.12 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.43 higher Monday afternoon at $313.33/cwt. Select was 65¢ higher at $303.05/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on light demand through Monday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $187-$189. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 higher in Nebraska at $295-$300 and $6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.35 higher at $187.47/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered price was $4.67 higher at $298.06.

Corn futures closed unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led. by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 75 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 130 points higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.16 to $1.68 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Imports of Mexican cattle to the United States have averaged more than 1 million head annually for the last four decades — mostly feeder cattle — says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He explains feeder steers comprised 80.7% of imports over the last eight years; 19% spayed feeder heifers.

“In 2023, imports of cattle from Mexico increased 43% year over year,” Peel says. “However, the large percentage increase was in comparison to the very low level in 2022. Imports of Mexican cattle in 2022 were the lowest since 2008.”

Spun differently, Peel says imports of Mexican cattle have averaged 3.2% of the U.S. calf crop for the past 25 years, ranging from 1.9% to 4.3%.

“Many of the Mexican cattle imports enter stocker programs in the U.S. prior to feedlot finishing, although some are placed in feedlots directly upon arrival in the U.S.,” Peel says. “ … Flows of Mexican cattle into the U.S. market vary from year to year because of numerous factors in both countries, including relative cattle numbers and cattle prices, beef market conditions, drought and currency exchange rates.”

On the other end of the trade, Peel notes Mexico is one of the major beef export destinations for U.S. beef. He adds that the U.S. has exported an average of 43,000 head of cattle to Mexico — mainly breeding stock — over the past 25 years. The U.S. exported more than 103,000 head of cattle to Mexico last year, the most since 2002.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $3 higher in the western Corn belt at $188-$189. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $6 higher at $298.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 higher Friday afternoon at $311.90/cwt. Select was 71¢ higher at $302.40/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter of 601,000 head last week was 18,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 6.5 million head was 381,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 5.5 billion pounds was 244.1 million pounds less (-4.3%).

Strong cash fed cattle prices and supportive wholesale beef values helped Cattle futures close mostly higher Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ higher (27¢ to $1.80 higher), except for an average of 46¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with the week’s bearishness surrounding sticky inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 190 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 155 points lower.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed mixed, from 22¢ lower to 14¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Current retail beef prices and their premium to competing proteins underscore beef demand strength.

The Choice beef retail price was $8.08 per pounds in February, about the same as the previous month but 49¢ per pounds more (6.5%) year over year, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“The all-fresh retail beef price was $7.83 per pound, a marginal increase from last month and an 8.3% increase ($0.60 per pound) increase over last year,” say LMIC analysts. “Ground beef was $5.13 per pound, up 7.4% from last year. Chucks and rounds posted increases of 10.2% and 7.6%, respectively, over last year to $7.51 and $6.71 per pound. Steaks posted a record high of $11.72 per pound, up 13.9% ($1.43 per pound) from last year.”

On the other side of the fence, retail pork prices were down slightly.

“The February retail pork price was $4.76 per pound, down less than 1% from the previous month and the previous year,” according to LMIC analysts. “Over the last 12 months, the retail pork price has ranged from $4.68 to $5.04 per pound with an average of about $4.80 per pound.”

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Thursday in an outside day with apparent technical pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.18 lower ($1.85 to $2.97 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.89 lower ($2.80 to $4.67 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher at $188.00. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $292.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill with too few transactions to trend. Last week, FOB live prices were $185 in the Southern Plains and $185-$186 in Nebraska where dressed delivered prices were $292-$300.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 96¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $310.78/cwt. Select was 65¢ higher at $301.69/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 2¢ lower, with pressure from wheat.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 12¢ lower, pressured by more bullish domestic weather, poor exports and China’s recent cancellation of purchases from the U.S. and other countries.

Soybean futures closed mixed, from 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with a hotter inflation reading than expected. The Producers Price Index for final demand rose 0.6% in February, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 49 points lower.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.14 to $1.54 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Compared to the previous month, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $5 for the remainder of year in the March Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on lower projected corn prices and higher expected fed cattle prices, ERS increased the feeder steer price to $239/cwt. in the first quarter, $247 in the second quarter, $261 in the third quarter and $267 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $253.50.

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, compared to the previous month, ERS increased the forecast weighted average five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year, in the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, ERS increased projected prices $3 in the first quarter to $179/cwt., $3 in the second quarter to $183, $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $2 in the fourth quarter to $186. ERS increased the forecast annual average price $3 to $183. Prices were forecast higher on recent prices and firm demand for fed cattle.

“Packers are anticipated to pay more for fed cattle as the year progresses, when market-ready supplies tighten further,” ERS analysts say.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday with prospects of higher cash trade again this week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.42 higher ($1.17 to $2.10 higher) amid heavy volume.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 higher ($1.30 higher at the front to $2.17 higher at the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185-$186/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$300 in Nebraska and $292 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 77¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $309.82/cwt. Select was $1.44 higher at $301.04/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was 87 points lower.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.69 to $2.16 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Concentration in the cattle feeding sector continues to increase with fewer feedlots overall while the largest feedlots account for more annual sales, according to the recently published 2022 Census of Agriculture.

“Only 22,613 farms had cattle on feed in inventory at the start of 2022, down from 25,776 farms in 2017,” says Matthew Diersen, risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Farms with 1 to 19 head on feed stayed constant in number, likely retained ownership for local consumption instead of a budding enterprise. The number of farms in the other small inventory levels, 20 to 999 head, all had significant declines, similar to or driving the overall decline in farms with cattle on feed.

On the other end of the spectrum, Diersen says feedlots with the largest inventory levels (1,000-2,499 head and 2,500 head or more) were relatively constant with more cattle on feed than in 2017.

Diersen points out the Census also provides a breakdown of custom fed cattle by state.

“While the U.S. saw fewer feedlots with custom feeding — 853 in 2022 versus 1,070 in 2017 — the aggregate number sold was higher at 10.1 million head in 2022,” Diersen says. “Kansas feedlots had the most head custom fed, followed by Nebraska, then Texas. Iowa led states with 155 farms with custom feeding.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday with support from higher-trending wholesale beef prices and last week’s stronger cash trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ higher (57¢ to $1.32 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185-$186/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$300 in Nebraska and $292 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.71 higher Tuesday afternoon at $310.79/cwt. Select was 72¢ higher at $299.60/cwt.

Corn futures closed unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 13¢ to 17¢ higher, supported by lower estimated production in Brazil and a hotter forecast in South America.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and despite a slightly hotter inflation reading than traders expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3% in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 22¢ to 37¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Lean beef trimming prices are on a tear, driving cull cow prices higher.

In this weekly market comments, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says 90% lean beef trimmings (90s) were $317.36/cwt. the first week of March, which was record high for data since 1978.

“The supply of non-fed beef (cow + bull) is down 12.7% year over year thus far in 2024, the result of a 13.1% year-to-date decrease in cow slaughter,” Peel says. “Dairy cow slaughter is down 15.0% and beef cow slaughter is down 11.4% year over year, while bull slaughter so far in 2024 is down 9.4% from one year ago.” 

As domestic lean beef supplies decrease, and prices increase, Peel explains the market responds with increased U.S. beef imports — primarily lean beef trimmings — to moderate domestic prices.

“Accordingly, beef imports in 2023 increased 9.9% year over year. In the latest data for January, beef imports were up 38.1% year over year,” Peel says. “Beef imports are typically front-loaded in the new year as countries, especially Brazil, scramble to fill the unassigned ‘Other Country’ import quota. Monthly imports will moderate later in the year and total imports for 2024 are projected to increase 12-13% year over year.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $1.50-$2.00 higher in Nebraska at $185-$186 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$8 higher in Nebraska at $292-$300 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.84 higher Monday afternoon at $308.88/cwt. Select was $1.45 higher at $298.88/cwt.

Cattle futures drifted mainly lower Monday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 27¢ lower, except for an average of 16¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 85¢ lower (12¢ to $1.37 lower), except for an average of 36¢ higher in the last two contracts.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 13¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices settled narrowly mixed Monday as investors apparently waited for direction from Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 8¢ lower to 26¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Nationwide last week, feeder steers and heifers sold $2-$4 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Compared to a year earlier, the regional weighted average feeder steer price (600-700 lbs.) was 65.67/cwt. higher in the Southeast to $79.09 higher in the North Central region, according to USDA’s National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

Total trade at auction, video-internet and via direct trade last week was 306,200 head compared to about 280,000 head the previous week and about 260,000 the same week last year. Year-to-date auction receipts are higher year over year.

“Feeder cattle supplies are the tightest they have been in a decade and are expected to tighten further this year,” says Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “Higher levels of cow-culling and lower retention of heifers as beef cow replacements in recent years have likely set the stage for a smaller calf crop in 2024.” He explains the estimated number of calves produced in 2023 was 33.6 million head, which was similar to the 2014 level and down more than 3 million head since 2018.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $1.50-$2.00 higher in Nebraska at $185-$186 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$8 higher in Nebraska at $292-$300 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $292.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 583,000 head was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week and 48,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 5.9 million head was 349,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 4.9 billion pounds was 231.3 million pounds less (-4.5%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ higher Friday afternoon at $307.04/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $297.43/cwt.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday despite the week’s higher cash trade and the supportive outlook in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 83¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 lower (62¢ to $2.20 lower).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher with likely short covering despite neutral to bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 19¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, led by tech stocks and with mixed economic data.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was more than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased 5¢ to $34.57.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 188 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 61¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast weighted average five-area direct fed cattle price for the remainder of this year, in the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, ERS increased projected prices $3 in the first quarter to $179/cwt., $3 in the second quarter to $183, $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $2 in the fourth quarter to $186. ERS increased the forecast annual average price $3 to $183. Prices were forecast higher on recent prices and firm demand for fed cattle.

Beef production was projected 140 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.3 billion pounds. If so, it would be 638 million pounds less (-2.4%) than last year. Forecast production was raised with higher expected slaughter for the remainder of the year offsetting lower expected production in the first quarter.

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, buoyed by stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ higher (42¢ to $1.12 higher), except for unchanged in spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Kansas at $186/cwt. Prices in the Southern Plains last week were $183.

Trade in the North ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in Nebraska to moderate on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. FOB live prices were $1.50 to $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $185-$186 and $2 higher in the western Corn belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices in both regions were $290 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.70 higher through Thursday afternoon at $306.61/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $296.26/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday with apparent technical support and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 18¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 18¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed strongly higher Thursday, led by tech stocks and investor optimism about tamer inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 241 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 20¢ lower to 11¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

The number of farms in the United States has fallen below 2 million for the first time since before the Civil War, according to the recently released 2022 Census of Agriculture, which USDA conducts every five years.

In 2022, there were 1,900,487 farms in the country, a 7% decline from the level reported in the 2017 Census. A farm is defined as an establishment that produced and sold, or would have sold in normal conditions, at least $1,000 in agricultural production in a year.

Total U.S. land in farms declined 2.2% to 880 million acres in 2022. Declining acres, combined with the higher proportional decline in the number of farms, meant that the average farm size increased by 5% to 463 acres per farm.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

Cattle futures weakened Wednesday, as traders appeared to be waiting for cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower (22¢ to $1.07 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ lower (70¢ to $1.30 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 12¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $304.91/cwt. Select was 22¢ higher at $295.09/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday. Keep in mind the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are scheduled for release this Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ lower though Dec ’24 and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower, struggling for demand.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday, helped by inflation comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.

In his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Powell explained, “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 75 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 91 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 70¢ to $1.00 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. agricultural producer sentiment rose in February despite producers’ ongoing concerns about their operations’ financial performance in the year ahead, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The February barometer reading of 111 was 5 points higher month to month, buoyed by a 7-point increase 1n the Futures Expectations index. The Current Conditions Index was unchanged.

“Weak crop prices continue to weigh heavily on financial expectations, with mid-February Eastern Corn Belt cash prices for corn and soybeans declining by 7% and 8%, respectively, compared to two months earlier,” explains James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

More specifically, 34% of respondents cited higher input costs as their primary concern for their operation this year, followed by 28% who said it was lower crop and livestock prices.

Each February, the barometer survey asks producers about growth plans for their operation in the next five years. This year, 40% of respondents expressed no plans for growth, with 14% saying they plan to exit or retire. Just over 3 out of 10 respondents anticipate their farm’s annual growth rate to exceed 5%. Responses to this question, which have been consistent in recent years, point to further consolidation among farm operations.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from February 12-16.

Cattle futures moved ahead Tuesday, mostly erasing losses from the previous session.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 81¢ higher (52¢ to $1.32 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 higher (75¢ to $1.50 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 lower Tuesday afternoon at $304.79/cwt. Select was 30¢ lower at $294.87/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday with likely pressure from profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 11¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 404 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 52 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) 59¢ to 79¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Tighter supplies continue boosting cull cow and cow beef prices.

“Southern Plains auction prices for 85-90% lean cows jumped from $85/cwt. to $105 over the last two weeks. National average cutter quality cows hovered around $100,” says David Anderson Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Besides cull cow prices tending to increase until May-June, as cow slaughter declines seasonally Anderson explains beef and dairy cow slaughter remains less year over year.

“Since the first of the year, cow beef production has been about 14% lower than the same period last year. Heavier weights are boosting pounds of production, partially offsetting fewer animals slaughtered,” Anderson says. “The boxed cow beef cutout hit $240/cwt. at the end of February, up from about $205 at the beginning of the year and $32 higher than the same week in 2023.”

Moreover, Anderson says the approaching grilling season should further support prices.

Cattle futures took a breather Monday as traders appeared to await further cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower (32¢ to $1.77 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.47 lower (80¢ to $2.40 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 35¢ higher at $183.30/cwt. The average dressed delivered price was $1.25 lower at $290.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.02 higher Monday afternoon at $306.30/cwt. Select was 57¢ lower at $295.17/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 67 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 35¢ to $1.23 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although the total cattle on feed inventory has been above year-ago levels since last fall, Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky notes it has been decreasing since December is now close to the same year over year.

“The surprisingly high cattle on feed levels have largely been the result of high placement levels in September and October due to dry weather in some parts of the U.S. and high levels of live cattle imports,” Burdine explains, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “In addition to high placements levels last fall, increasing harvest weights in late 2023 also pointed to longer cattle feeding times.”

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, although more than expected feedlot placements in January were 7% less than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s most recent Cattle on Feed Report.

“Cattle on feed numbers tend to decrease seasonally through spring and summer,” Burdine says. “That decrease is likely to be ever greater in 2024 as tighter feeder cattle supplies reach feedlots.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady to $1.50 higher in Nebraska at $183-$184.50 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $183-$184. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $290 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 higher Friday afternoon at $305.28/cwt., the highest level since October. Choice was $4.67 higher week to week on Friday. Select was $1.56 higher at $295.74/cwt., up $9.43 week to week.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 599,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 5.4 million head was 298,000 head less (-5.3%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 4.5 billion pounds was 194.2 million pounds less (-4.2%).

Cattle futures rebounded Friday, supported by higher wholesale beef prices and strong fundamentals.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.90 higher ($1.30 to $3,10 higher), except for 30¢ higher in newly minted away-Aug. They were narrowly mixed week to week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.35 higher ($2.77 to $4.27 higher). They were an average of $1.40 lower week to week. Besides higher Corn futures and technical correction, some of the mid-week pressure may have stemmed from concerns about the massive Texas wildfires pushing more cattle to market.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Dec ’14 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 10’5¢ higher through the front six contracts.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 14¢ to 22¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 14¢ higher through Aug ’24 and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 183 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.23 to $1.71 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef exports for fiscal year 2024 were projected $700 million higher than the previous quarterly forecast, in February’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The increase was based on tight domestic supplies and rising unit values.

U.S. agricultural exports were projected $1.0 billion higher at $170.5 billion. Exports of livestock and dairy, as well as grains and feeds, led the increase, offsetting reductions in oilseeds and products.

China was forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports at $28.7 billion. The figure is $800 million less than the previous forecast, largely due to strong South American competition for soybeans and corn.

“Global economic activity continues to moderate in response to ongoing tight monetary policies and weak global trade growth,” according to ERS and FAS analysts. “However, most of the global economy remains resilient due to gradual disinflation and steady growth. As a result, the global economy is expected to avoid a significant economic slowdown in calendar year (CY) 2024.”

For CY 2024, global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was forecast at 3.1%. Projected real GDP growth for the United States was forecast at 2.1% for CY 2024.

Cattle futures continued a downward correction Thursday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower (37¢ to $1.85 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $183 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $183-$184. Dressed delivered prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $290 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.17 higher Thursday afternoon at $304.20/cwt. Select was $1.24 higher at $294.18/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, buoyed by tech stocks and a friendly inflation reading. The Consumer Price Expenditures Index was in line with expectations, increasing 0.4% month to month, excluding food and energy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 144 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 28¢ to 40¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Creighton University’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the sixth consecutive month in February. The index is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Specifically, the February index declined month to month from 48.1 to 46.2. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and a credit squeeze are having a significant and negative impact on Rural Mainstreet businesses and on Rural Mainstreet farmers,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Almost three-fourths of bank CEOs named low farm commodity prices as the biggest risk for farms in 2024.

“Commodity prices that are $1.50 to $2.00 per bushel (corn) less than break-even are obviously not sustainable,” says Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Havana, Ill.

First today, a special prayer for all of those being affected by wildfires in the Texas Panhandle and in Oklahoma. So far, one of five active fires has burned more than 850,000 acres, according to the Texas Department of Agriculture. On Tuesday, the Texas governor issued a disaster declaration in 60 counties. If you’re wondering how to help, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association always does an amazing job tracking needs and opportunities.

Now, for your market update…

Cattle futures softened Wednesday with pressure including likely profit taking and month-end positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.13 lower (80¢ to $1.60 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.80 lower ($2.12 to $3.85 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains, through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183 in Nebraska and $182-$183 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292 in Nebraska and $290-$292 in the western Corn Belt.

Slower beef packer production continued to support wholesale beef values. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.29 higher Wednesday afternoon at $303.03/cwt. Select was $2.54 higher at $292.94/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn and Soybean futures received some support from chatter about bearish weather in South America.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher, with most of the support in the front contracts.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in spot Mar.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 23 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 87 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 33¢ to 43¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Global beef demand is likely to remain steady this year despite economic challenges and consumer shifts toward lower-priced proteins, according to the recent Rabobank Global Beef Quarterly.

“While there was some channel shifting and movement to lower-priced options for beef, overall demand held up relatively well in 2023, supporting consumption levels,” says Angus Gidley-Baird, Rabobank senior analyst, animal protein.

Across most markets, beef retail prices have risen since 2019, and the impact of inflation in 2022 and 2023 added to the cost of living, pressuring consumers’ budgets and changing spending patterns, according to the report. With consumers trending toward cheaper options in 2023, foodservice and retail companies began promoting value-based propositions more frequently, some of which outperformed.

Still, Rabobank expects GDP growth rates to slow and unemployment rates to rise in many countries this year. Rising unemployment suggests that upward pressure on wages should ease, and if inflation remains high, real wages should decline, putting more pressure on household income. Rabobank forecasts 2024 GDP growth in the U.S. at less than 1%.

“With limited or negative real wage growth expected in 2024, coupled with the higher cost environment, we believe global beef consumption will at best remain steady and possibly decline through 2024, with some notable regional variations,” according to Gidley-Baird.

On the other side of the scale, Rabobank maintains a neutral outlook for global beef production, with increases in Australia and Brazil offsetting declines in Europe and the US.

Trade flows are also shifting. For instance, according to the report,

due to its reasonable economic outlook and lower domestic supplies, the U.S. is likely to lead the beef price-setting market and to draw increased volumes from Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, according to the report.

“Value will become the predominant theme across most markets in order to retain consumers faced with balancing the tighter economic conditions,” Gidley-Baird says.

Cattle futures basically paddled in place Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 14¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 16¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, with too few transactions to trend, through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183 in the Texas Panhandle, $182-$183 in Kansas, $183 in Nebraska and $182-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292 in Nebraska and $290-$292  in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $301.74/cwt. Select was $2.41 higher at $290.40/cwt.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher through near Aug and then mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 81¢ to $1.29 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Beef in cold storage continues to decline, according to USDA’s most recent Cold Storage report.

Total pounds of beef in freezers Jan. 31 were 1% less than the previous month and 11% less than the same time a year earlier.

Frozen pork supplies were up 10% from the prior month but down 10% from the previous year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 4% more than the previous month but 11% less than last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were 1% more than the previous month but 4% less than a year earlier. Chicken supplies were down and turkey supplies were up.

Overall, futures traders seemed to look past the bearish placement number in Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, seeming instead to focus on strong fundamentals, including last week’s higher cash fed cattle trade. However, the bounce higher in Corn futures helped dampen Feeder Cattle futures.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower, (50¢ to $1.52 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $182-$183, $2 higher in Nebraska at $183 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $182-$184. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5 higher at $292 and $5-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $290-$292.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $2.60 higher at $182.95/cwt. The average dressed delivered steer price was $5 higher at $291.61.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.18 higher Monday afternoon at $301.79/cwt. Select was $1.68 higher at $287.99/cwt.

Grain futures bounced back Monday, still trying to carve a bottom.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 15¢ higher through Mar ’25 and then mostly 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through near Aug and then mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices ended little changed but to the downside on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 80¢ to $1.09 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Beef demand was down slightly year over year in 2023, according to the demand index calculated by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). Even so, in the latest Livestock Monitor, analysts say retail beef demand the last four years was the highest since 2000. Demand last year was still above index levels for 2000-19.

LMIC’s meat demand index is based on the Consumer Price Index level of 2000.

On the other side of the fence, LMIC analysts say retail pork demand had been gaining ground for several years after seeing a low point around 2012. However, it also faltered a touch last year.

Cattle futures renewed gains Friday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices and perhaps positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.31 higher ($1.00 higher at the back to $2.10 higher in spot Feb). They were an average of $1.19 higher week to week on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.16 higher, ($1.07 higher at the back to $3.07 higher toward the front. They were an average of $3.74 higher week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light to moderate on light to moderate demand to moderate on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $182-$183, $2 higher in Nebraska at $183 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $184. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5 higher at $292. Dressed prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $285.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ higher Friday afternoon at $300.61/cwt. Select was 50¢ higher at $286.31/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.41 higher, while Select was 35¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 593,000 head was 15,000 head fewer than the previous week and 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 4.8 million head was 272,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same week the previous year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 4 billion pounds was 177.4 million pounds less (-4.3%).

Grain and Soybean futures eroded further Friday with pressure including producer selling and anemic international demand.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. They were an average of 12’4¢ lower through the front six contracts week to week.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ lower in the front three contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices ended little changed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 62 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $1.45 to $2.12 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Traders may view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as slightly bearish.

Although, 7.4% less than the previous year (-144,000 head), January feedlot placements (capacity of 1,000 head or more) were 4.4% more than the average of analyst estimates.

In terms of placement weights, 43% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 47% weighing 700-899 pounds and 10% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in January of 1.8 million head were just 2,000 head fewer than the previous year and in line with estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle on feed Feb. 1 of 11.8 million head were 43,000 head more than the previous year, also in line with expectations.

Cattle futures softened Thursday with likely positioning ahead of Fridays monthly Cattle on Feed report. Many expect the report to indicate a sharp decline in feedlot placement, about 12% less year over year in January, based on average analyst estimates. January marketing are estimated to be about even, while the Feb. 1 on-feed inventory is projected to be up slightly.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an  average of $1.44 lower, except for an average of 56¢ higher in the front three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the South to mostly inactive on light demand in the North, with too few transactions to trend, through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $181 in Nebraska and $180 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $287 in Nebraska and $285 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.99 higher Thursday afternoon at $299.79/cwt. Select was $1.35 higher at $285.81/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures continued searching for a bottom Thursday with apparent added pressure from recent producer selling.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Dec. ’24 and then mostly 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ lower through Jly ’25. and then mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices roared higher, fueled by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 456 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 105 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 466 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed 47¢ to 70¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Aggregating everything from cow-calf operations through feedlots, cattle sector returns are expected to be less this year as lower traded volume offsets higher prices, according to Matthew Diersen, Extension risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University. His statement refers to the latest Agricultural Prices from USDA’s Economic Research Service, published earlier this month.

“At the same time, higher feeder animal expenditures are expected to continue,” Diersen says, in a recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Another major cost item, interest expense, is expected to remain high, as steady to potentially lower interest rates are offset by higher loan volumes. At the local level, higher rates have been discussed as they have influenced returns to storage on crops, resulted in higher operating expenses overall, and factored into the value of replacement heifers.”

Diersen points out multi-state grazing fee rates in the same report were higher last year for animal units and cow-calf pairs. “High prices for substitute feedstuffs (corn and hay) for much of 2023 likely placed upward pressure on grazing fees,” he says.

On the other hand, corn and hay prices are projected to be lower year over year in 2024 due to larger expected ending stocks.

A final cost pressure depends on individual perspective, according to Diersen.

“Feeder cattle continue to trade at high levels,” Diersen says. “The CME Feeder Cattle Index is a weighted average price of 700–899-pound steers traded at AMS-reported sales across 12 states. The index is a common benchmark that reached an all-time high of $254.10 on Sept. 20, 2023. The recent index values have been around $243.00, or record level for this time of year.”

Cattle futures continued to crawl mostly higher Wednesday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher, except for 42¢ lower in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an  average of 45¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the South to mostly inactive on light demand in the North, with too few transactions to trend, through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $181 in Nebraska and $180 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $287 in Nebraska and $285 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $297.80/cwt. Select was $3.36 lower at $284.46/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 7¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 18¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 49 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 38¢ to 87¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although he says forage supplies, calf prices and production costs are the primary determinants of herd expansion, Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist the University of Kentucky also notes interest rates also play a role.

“The expansion decision is really a tradeoff,” Burdine says, in the recent issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “A cow-calf producer choosing to expand makes a short-term investment (heifer retention or breeding stock purchase) in hopes of seeing higher profit levels in the future. Any time a short-term / long-term discussion is had, interest rates and inflation are likely to enter the conversation.”

When it comes to interest rates, Burdine explains the obvious impact is the interest cost or opportunity cost associated with buying or retaining more females. Less obvious, he says, is the time value of money.

“Money in the present is always preferred over money in the future and interest rates largely determine how significant that preference is,” Burdine says. “When a producer retains a heifer for replacement purposes, he/she forgoes her value as a calf (present) in order to see increased revenues from the sale of her calves after she enters the herd (future). The preference for money now, from the sale of the weaned heifer, is greater when interest rates are higher. At the same time, the real value of those future calves is lower due to higher interest rates. An economist might say those future returns are ‘more heavily discounted’ in a higher interest rate environment. This combination results in less desire to hold heifers for development purposes, and I think we are seeing some impact from this today.”