Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $295.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 622,000 head was the same as a week earlier but 22,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 11.4 million head was 527,000 head less (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.6 billion pounds was 208.8 million pounds less (-2.1%) less than a year earlier.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ lower Friday afternoon at $294.57/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $284.17/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 37¢ higher but Select was $3.48 lower.
Cattle futures were mixed Friday.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 83¢ lower.
Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower to an average of 21¢ higher with the front months pressured by Corn futures. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.19 lower week to week on Friday.Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, supported by the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below), which were less bearish than expected.
KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 21¢ higher.
Corn futures closed mostly 9¢ to 13¢ higher through May ’25, and then mostly 4¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ higher through Sep ’24, and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 5 points.
Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.
Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.
Other WASDE highlights…
Corn
The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.
The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25¢ from 2023/24.
SoybeansThe 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023/24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023/24.
The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42¢ per pound, down 6¢ from 2023/24.
Wheat
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6% from 2023/24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11% above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.
The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.