Cattle Current Daily—Nov. 27, 2023

Cattle Current Daily—Nov. 27, 2023

Keeping in mind the holiday-shortened week and the abbreviated session to end the week, Cattle futures took a steep step lower Friday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices, light trade and apparent technical selling.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.66 lower ($5.62 to $6.80 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.75 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the last established trade for the week, FOB live price were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $177/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $177-$178. Dressed delivered prices were $7 lower in Nebraska at $275.

The previous week, FOB live prices in Nebraska were $178 and dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $282.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.03 higher Friday afternoon at $298.03/cwt. Select was $1.14 higher at $268.76/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 538,000 head was 98,000 head fewer than the previous week and 51,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 29.2 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-4.7%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 24.0 billion lbs. was 1.4 billion lbs. less (-5.4%).

Net U.S. 2023 beef export sales for the week ending Nov. 16 were 10,000 metric tons, which was 12% more than the previous week but 30% less than the prior four-week average. Increases primarily were for China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan and Mexico.

Traders doused the weather premium in Soybean futures on Friday with the wetter forecast in Brazil, taking the grain complex along for the wide.

Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 25¢ lower through Jan ’25 and then 14¢ to 18¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Friday, led by retail stocks as the holiday season begins.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 117 point higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 15 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.22 to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts. 

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Choice wholesale beef prices found some seasonal footing last week with the cutout value $4.16 higher week to week on Friday at $298.03/cwt. Select was $1.94 lower at $268.76.

“The demand index for beef appears to be resetting closer to pre-pandemic levels but may lose further ground as price increases are expected to continue in the next few years,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) in the latest Livestock Monitor.

LMIC’s demand index for all fresh beef was 115 in the second quarter of 2023, slightly higher than 111 in 2019, but lower than 2020-22. LMIC analysts note a similar trend for the third quarter an index value of 110. That was in line with the same time in 2014 but has declined every year since 2020.

“Pork demand has been more inconsistent in recent years, surging to a 20-year high in 2019 and then out-pacing that high again in 2022,” LMIC analysts say. “However, the years in between have seen it drop back to levels seen over the most recent decade.”

2023-11-26T13:42:19-06:00

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