Futures and equity markets were closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ lower on Monday afternoon at $208.03/cwt. Select was 40¢ higher at $202.04.
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“Total U.S. beef exports are projected to increase another 2.5% to 3.5% year over year in 2018 to a new record level,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He adds that growth is expected to include some export expansion to China, although he says the total contribution of beef exports to China will likely remain limited in the near term.
Through November, Peel notes that U.S. beef exports to China were 1.97 million lbs., making China the 10th largest U.S. beef export market.
“USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has projected that China will import 2.26 billion lbs. of beef in 2018. At the current level, U.S. beef exports to China would represent roughly 1% of Chinese beef imports,” Peel says. “If the U.S. were to increase beef exports to China tenfold to a 10% market share, it would make China the 5th largest beef market for beef exports and add roughly 10% to total U.S. beef exports. However, growth this rapid seems unlikely in 2018. Such a level may be more feasible in three to five years. Still, it is difficult to anticipate how markets will evolve and growth could happen more quickly than is apparent now.”