Grain and soybean futures ricocheted sharply higher Monday, driven once again by uncertainty stemming from the military assault in Eastern Europe.
Corn futures closed 24¢ to 38¢ higher through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 16¢ to 19¢ higher.
Soybean futures 29¢ to 54¢ higher through Sep ‘22 and the mostly 19¢ to 20¢ higher.
The spike weighed on Cattle futures, especially Feeder Cattle.
Feeder Cattle futures closed average of $2.51 lower.
Live Cattle futures closed an average 32¢ lower, except for $1.22 higher in spot Feb.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on very light demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week live prices were generally steady in the Southern Plains at mostly $142/cwt., steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $142-$144, and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $144. Dressed prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $227 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $226-$227.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 76¢ lower week to week on Monday afternoon at $257.51/cwt. Select was $2.00 lower at $253.41.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday after another volatile session tied to uncertainty about the Russian attack on Ukraine and the economic sanctions taken by the U.S. and other countries against Russia.
The Down Jones Industrial Average closed 166 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 56 points.
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“Replacement prices across regions will be a key indicator this summer to help determine where carrying capacity exists and if we should start to see regions of the U.S. expanding the beef herd,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.
Albeit slowly, the folks at LMIC say their data — a range of replacement auction data covering 16 areas — indicates, where possible, producers are adding breeding stock, prompted by the level of feeder cattle prices.
For instance, Medium and Large 1 bred cows, averaged across all trimesters and all ages, are running about $100 per head higher year over year at auctions in Nebraska and Missouri. Beef cow herds (Jan. 1) declined in those states last year but are near Iowa and Minnesota where the state herds expanded.
“Medium and Large 1-2 are only about $45 per head higher. West Plains, MO bred heifers (1-9 months) Medium and Large 1-2 are up 21% and medium and large 2s are up 13% from January of last year,” say LMIC analysts. “Across most of the bred cow categories, prices are seeing double digit percentage increases, with the exception of bred cows over 8 years old. Open stock cow prices are higher as well. Under 2-years-old Medium and Large 1-2 are up 19% from last year, 2-8 year olds are up 9%. Medium and Large 2 open stock cows (2-8 years) are up 11%. In Joplin, MO bred cows Medium and Large 1-2 are up 16% across all ages and trimesters. Open stock cows are up 35% across all types.”
Similarly, the Jan. 1 Cattle report indicated pockets of beef cow herd expansion in the Pacific Northwest. Looking at some of the nearest auctions in Montana, LMIC analysts say, “…bred heifers appear to be about 15% higher, bred cows (Medium and Large 1) are mixed with later trimesters commanding only a slightly higher price than last year. Stock cows are averaging about $2/cwt. higher across all age groups.”