Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
For the week, live prices were $4-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $144-$148 and $1-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $145-$148. Dressed prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $229-$230 and near the top of the previous week’s trade in the western Corn Belt at $229.
Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ higher Friday afternoon at $263.37/cwt. Select was $2.13 higher at $239.59/cwt.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 647,000 was 4,000 fewer than the previous week but 11,000 head more than the previous year. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 20.77 million head was 246,000 head more (+1.2%) than a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.12 billion lbs. was 171.3 million lbs. more (+1.0%).
Although supported by the week’s stronger cash prices, Live Cattle futures wobbled Friday — an average of 37¢ lower in the front five contracts and then unchanged to an average of 4¢ higher.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 lower, pressured by Corn futures, which were 10¢ to 14¢ higher through Jly ‘23, fueled by the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).
Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 5¢ higher after 40¢ lower in spot Aug and 14¢ higher in near Sep.
Despite the latest pressure from feed prices, Feeder Cattle futures mainly maintained the previous two week’s strong gains, week to week on Friday. Week to week on Thursday, The CME Feeder Cattle Index closed $2.85 higher at $178.28/cwt. That’s almost $6 higher over the last two weeks.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday as investors speculated inflation may be at the peak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 424 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 72 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 267 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $2.25 lower through the through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected weighted average five-area direct steer price for this year 80¢ to $142.10/cwt., on current price strength. That’s from the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Next year’s projected annual price was $1 higher than the previous month’s estimate at $154. Prices were estimated at $140 in the third quarter and $147 in the fourth quarter. Prices in the first and second quarter next year were projected at $151 and $152, respectively.
Beef production for this year was projected at 27.99 billion lbs., which was 68 million lbs. more than the previous month’s estimate, based on higher expected placements in the second half of this year. Estimated beef production next year of 26.26 billion lbs. would be 1.7 billion lbs. less (-6.2%) than this year.
Total red meat and poultry production is estimated to be 106.48 billion lbs. this year, which would be 334 million lbs. less than last year (-0.3%). Projected total red meat and poultry production of 105.8 billion lbs. next year would be 673 million lbs. less (-0.6%) than this year.
Corn
Estimated 2022-23 production was reduced 146 million bu. to 14.4 billion based on yield estimates of 175.4 bu./acre, which was 1.6 bu./acre less than the previous estimate. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 82 million bu. to 1.4 billion.
The season-average farm price (SAFP) received by producers for corn was unchanged at $6.65/bu.
Soybeans
Although harvested soybean area was reduced 0.3 million acres from the previous estimate, average yield was projected 0.4 bu. higher at 51.9 bu./acre. Soybean supplies for 2022-23 were estimated to be 20 million bu. more at 2.16 billion bu. Ending stocks were projected 15 million bu. more at 245 million bu.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022-23 was forecast at $14.35/bu., down 5¢ from last month. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts were unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0¢/lb., respectively.
Wheat
Estimated U.S. wheat production for 2022-23 was raised 2 million bu. from the previous month to 1,783 million bu. with all wheat yield projected 0.2 bu. more than the previous months at is 47.5 bu./acre. Projected 2022-23 ending wheat stocks were lowered 29 million bu. to 610 million.
The projected 2022-23 season-average farm price was reduced by $1.25 to $9.25/bu., based on prices received for marketings to date, which are lower than previously expected. However, the projected SAFP would still surpass the record of $7.77/bu. in 2012-13.