Wholesale beef prices surged higher Tuesday. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 higher Tuesday afternoon at $358.75/cwt. Select was 85¢ higher at $344.96.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $220/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $229 in Nebraska and $228-$229 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $358.
Cattle futures mainly wobbled sideways Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in near Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower, to an average of 33¢ higher.
Apparent continued short covering and the softer U.S. dollar helped lift Grain and Soybean futures Tuesday.
Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 114 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 72 points.
Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts, from 7¢ lower to 26¢ higher.
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Cattle feeders’ extraordinary ability to add more pounds to declining cattle numbers and maintain relatively high beef production levels may be approaching a limit, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
“It is expected that cattle weights will plateau next year after the feedlot sector notched significant weight gains in fed steers and heifers over the last couple of years,” say ERS analysts in the May Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “As a result, this will not offset the decline in slaughter as it has in previous years when weights trended higher during periods of year-over-year lower slaughter. This is likely due to feedlots being limited in their ability to extend the time on feed beyond the advances made in recent years.”
ERS projects beef production in 2026 to be 5% less year over year at 25.1 billion pounds, the fourth consecutive year of lower production.
“A smaller expected calf crop in 2025, more heifers retained for breeding, and fewer live cattle imports, will contribute to fewer calves placed in feedlots in late 2025 and early 2026. Fewer placements during this period will limit marketings for slaughter in 2026,” ERS analysts say. “… Further tightening of cattle supplies available for placement in feedlots in 2025 and into early 2026 is anticipated to bolster prices next year.”
ERS projects the weighted average five-area direct fed steer price at $222.75/cwt. in 2026, which would be 4% more than this year’s forecast annual average price. Likewise, ERS projects next year’s average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) 3% higher year over year at $306.25.