Live Cattle futures started strong but were an average of $1.14 lower toward the close Tuesday, as traders awaited the week’s cash direction. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $223/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $222 in Kansas, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $230-$237 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365-$370 in Nebraska and $371 in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 56¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $365.44/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $356.52.
Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday with likely short covering and perhaps some weather premium.
Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 214 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 156 points.
Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 85¢ higher.
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Although cash cattle prices are historically high, driven by tightening cattle supplies relative to demand, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University suspects cyclically high prices still remain on the horizon when herd rebuilding finally takes hold. He provides perspective on snugging supplies in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.
“Typically beef production increases through the summer supported by heavier weights. This will likely be the case this year. But a detailed examination of placements across different weight groups suggests very tight supplies,” Koontz says. “These marketings-based-on-placements can be calculated using the Cattle on Feed report information from placements in the different weight groups. Assumptions are needed about average daily gain and days on feed to make grade. But once done, these prospective marketings are very tight compared to prior years’ calculations.
“Another two series of inventories calculated from the report that I watch are cattle on feed over 120 days and over 150 days. Both are large and reinforce that the inventory of cattle on feed numbers is weighted to the end of the feeding period. Supplies will be tight for much of the remainder of the year.”
With supply etched, Koontz explains cattle prices will be written by consumer beef demand and communicated through boxed beef cutout values. Although wholesale beef values are currently excellent, he points out fed cattle prices are more aggressive, further pressuring weak packer margins at a time of year when margins are typically among the strongest of the year.
“Therefore, up-moves for cattle will be reasonably limited and focus for the cattle outlook should be any beef market weakness,” Koontz says.