Cattle futures bounced back Friday after the previous session’s sharp decline and despite bearish outside markets.
Live cattle futures closed an average of 98¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.59 higher.
Cattle futures were mostly higher week to week on Friday, which says plenty when considering the sharp downward correction on Thursday. Except for $3.65 higher in spot Aug. and 30¢ lower at the back, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ higher (20¢ higher at the back to $2.80 higher at the front).
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was light on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt and moderate on moderate demand elsewhere.
For the week, FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $235/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Kansas at $235-$236, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $245-$247 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $383.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.90 higher Friday afternoon at $363.22. Select was 87¢ lower at $340.50. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.46 lower and Select was $4.37 lower.
Estimated total cattle slaughter of 535,000 head least week was 14,000 head fewer than the previous week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 17.3 million head was 1.2 million head fewer (-6.6%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15 billion pounds was 549 million pounds less (-3.5%).
Turning to the grain complex, ongoing favorable weather and growing prospects of monster crops pressured Corn futures 2¢ to 4¢ lower through new-crop contracts on Friday. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then 2¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday with pressure including a weaker employment reading than expected and more tumult from announced U.S., tariffs.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in July with an increase of just 73,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was also static at 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12¢ to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 542 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 101 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 472 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.93 to $2.04 lower through the front six contracts.
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Although definitive signs of beef cow herd expansion remain unclear, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), say the recent USDA Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports suggest the herd is near the cyclical low.
LMIC analysts point out the projected calf crop was estimated at 33.1 million head for this year, roughly -1.4% less than two years earlier when the mid-year Cattle report was last published, reflecting tighter supplies and continued contraction in the national herd.
The July beef cow inventory was estimated at 28.7 million head, which was 1.2% less than the same time in 2023. Beef replacement heifers of 3.7 million head were 2.6% less.
“Heifers on feed represented 38.1% of total feedlot inventories, corresponding to a pullback of 1.5% from the same quarter in 2024,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The last time significant retention efforts were observed was in 2015, when heifers’ contribution to the feedlot mix fell three consecutive quarters by 3.3% to 3.5%, meaning any substantial heifer retention is likely not yet underway. These compounding factors have brought the number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots to the lowest levels ever observed (2% less than in 2023 to 34 million head) since cattle on feed was added to the July Cattle report in 1994.”
With declining cattle numbers in mind, LMIC analysts note longer cattle feeding periods with 16.1% more cattle on feed for longer than 150 days in June year over year and 45.1% more on feed for longer than 180 days.
“Moving forward, 2025 is likely to be a stabilization year as the industry grapples with uncertain trade and financing environments,” LMIC analysts say. “However, modest expansion could begin in 2026, contingent on favorable pasture conditions and overall profitability. Although, any growth that occurs will likely be limited, cautious and gradual.”