Cattle futures bounced higher Monday, likely due in part to the U.S. standing pat on Brazilian beef import tariffs, at least for now.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.33 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.73 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $233/cwt.; $4-$5 lower in Kansas at $232-$233, $2-$5 lower in Nebraska at $230 and mainly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $230. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $360.
The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $1.89 lower at $230.76. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.33 lower at $359.64.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 higher Monday afternoon at $363.64/cwt. Select was $2.59 higher at $347.97.
Grain and Soybean futures were mixed to start the week.
Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again on Monday, amid the backdrop of the continued government shutdown.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 161 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 90¢ higher through the front six contracts.
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Beef cow slaughter is down about 40% since 2022, enough to stabilize the beef cow inventory, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.
“However, the small beef replacement heifer inventory — down about 27% from the cyclical peak in 2017 — means that prospects for herd growth in 2026 are very limited. Unless heifer retention accelerates late in 2025, herd growth in 2027 will also be limited,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments.
So far, Peel says there is no data confirming that producers, collectively, are retaining enough heifers to initiate herd rebuilding.
“Prices are expected to peak some months after heifer retention begins, and at this point, are projected to move higher into 2026, depending on the pace of heifer retention, and perhaps beyond,” Peel says. “A sharp peak followed by a pronounced drop seems unlikely at this point. Prices are likely to remain elevated for much of the remainder of the decade with a gentle peak somewhere along the way … It looks increasingly like that peak is being pushed into the last part of the decade.”