Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although established trade was undeveloped through Friday afternoon, there were private reports of FOB live bids at $258-$260 in various regions.
The previous week, FOB live prices were $255-$256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $256 in Kansas and $255-$258 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $403-$405.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ higher Friday afternoon at $394.37/cwt. Select was $2.67 lower at $372.08. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.44 higher, while Select was 64¢ lower.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 526,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 12.8 million head was 1.2 million head fewer (-8.9%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.5 billion pounds was 758.9 million pounds less (-6.2%).
Futures markets were closed Friday, in observance of Juneteenth.
Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.12 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $9.97 higher. During the same period Corn futures closed an average of 4’2¢ higher through the front six contracts.
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Equity markets were closed Friday, but major U.S. financial indices were up on the week, stemming from the announced peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Week to week on Thursday, Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) closed an average of $9.28 lower through the front six contracts.
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Cattle markets continue to fade news of New World screwworm (NWS) arriving in the United States, helped in part by the fact so few infections have been confirmed. As of last Friday, there had been a total of 12 cases since the first confirmed detection June 3, affecting domestic cattle, goats and a single dog, most all in four Texas counties, according to USDA’s NWS Confirmed Detections dashboard.
The most profound impact on domestic cattle markets to date stems from continued closure of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. When Mexican feeder cattle are again eligible for export to the United States, they might not return to levels before the U.S. border was closed due to NWS.
For one thing, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out the Mexican cattle and beef industries evolved significantly during the past two decades.
“Beef production in Mexico has increased an average of 2% per year in the last decade. This is the result of increased cattle slaughter, about 1.6% annually, and increasing carcass weights,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Average cattle carcass weights have increased from about 600 pounds 25 years ago to roughly 710 pounds currently. The Mexican beef industry evolved from predominantly grass-fed production to current production where most cattle are fed in feedlots. This, along with improved cattle genetics and management, has led to increased carcass weights.”
Peele notes Mexican cattle exports averaged 1.2 million head over the last 25 years and typically represent 14-16% of the calf crop.
“Cattle and beef trade between Mexico and the U.S. has evolved from a long history of cattle exports to the U.S. to include Mexico becoming a major beef export destination for the U.S., and recently with Mexico becoming a significant source of U.S. beef imports,” Peel says. “The increasingly integrated trade relationship adds value to the beef industries in both countries.
“Not exporting feeder cattle to the U.S. means that more cattle are staying in Mexico to be finished for beef production. It also likely means that fewer cattle are being imported from Central America, which has been a source of supplemental cattle supply in recent years. Mexican beef imports will likely decrease, and beef exports will increase in the absence of cattle exports. Production systems and supply chains will continue to evolve in Mexico.”
Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.