WLI

Cattle futures closed lower Friday, with likely positioning ahead of what turned out to be a bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.63 lower (87¢ to $2.00 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.24 lower (92¢ to $4.30 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191 (a few up to $191.50). Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.01 lower Friday afternoon at $310.72/cwt. Select was $2.26 lower at $301.47/cwt. Week to week, Choice was $1.18 lower and Select was 93¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 3,000 head less than the previous week but 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.1 million head was 410,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated beef production of 6.0 billion pounds was 250.7 million pounds less (-4.0%).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 20¢ lower, with likely profit taking.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mainly lower Friday with likely profit taking from the week’s strong gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 26 points.

Week to week, the Dow gained 1,761 points. The S&P 500 was up 177 points and the tech-heavy NASDAQ was up 455 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 44¢ to 54¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bearish with more feedlot placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.9 million head in February which was 9.7% more (+160,000 head) year over year and 3.4% more than expectations ahead of the report. Placements were the highest for the month since the series began in 1996.

In terms of placement weights, 36% weighed 699 lbs. or less, 53% weighed 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighed 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in February of 1.8 million head were 3.4% more (+59,000 head), which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed March 1 of 11.8 million head were 1.3% more (+153,000 head) than a year earlier, also in line with pre-report expectations.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $313.73/cwt. Select was $1.02 higher at $303.73/cwt.

Despite the higher cash trade, Cattle futures edged lower Thursday, with some likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle closed an average of 43¢ lower., except for 57¢ higher in spot Apr.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ lower (30¢ to $1.07 lower), except for 62¢ higher in spot Mar.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher, helped along by weekly export numbers.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher, also helped by weekly exports.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, with continued investor optimism about interest rate cuts this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 269 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 32 points higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 20¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Meat remains a favored mainstay among virtually all U.S. consumers, according to the 19th annual Power of Meat report released this week by the Meat Institute and FMI—The Food Industry Association. According to the report, 80% of Americans describe themselves as meat eaters and 98% of households purchase meat. Those numbers are steady year over year.

Economic conditions continue to impact Americans’ shopping and meal choices, with 43% of Americans cutting back on restaurant meals. Of meat eaters who are buying restaurant meals less often, 75% try to recreate restaurant-type meals at home.

At the grocery store, 73% of Americans are making one or more changes to meat purchases to save money – with the most common strategy being to adjust the quantity of meat purchased. Among meat purchasers changing quantities to save money, 30% buy smaller packages to save money immediately, and 42% buy larger bulk packs to save money over time. On the other hand, more than nine in 10 shoppers say they would spend extra on occasion, with holidays, special celebrations and entertaining the top reasons.

Cattle futures closed slightly lower Wednesday, basically in a holding pattern ahead of weekly cash fed cattle trade and Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle closed an average of 37¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 36¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although, too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Kansas at $186/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $187-$189 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$300 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $313.44/cwt. Select was 47¢ lower at $302.71/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 14¢ higher, tied in part of new-crop export announcements.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, with investor optimism tied to the Fed staying on course with interest rates and planned rate cuts as the year unfolds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 401 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 46 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 202 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.02 to $1.79 lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef values remain firm with Choice at the highest price levels since last fall. Slower beef production and declining supplies are part of the equation, as is consumer beef demand.

“Choice boxed beef prices remain well over year-ago prices to the tune of $25/cwt., but remain well below the 2023 peak price of $343,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is difficult to predict how high wholesale beef prices will go, given the overall price environment consumers are attempting to wade through with the elevated interest expense and higher overall prices of goods and services.”

On a related note, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) note 90% lean beef was record high last week at $317/cwt., skyrocketing from $245 last December.

“The rally seen this winter is unparalleled by the previous cattle cycle. Fresh 90% lean beef prices have increased by a large magnitude and at a fast pace for this time of year, up 25% from the start of the year,” LMIC analysts explain in the latest Livestock Monitor. “In 2013 the same 10 week spread saw a 6% rise, in 2014 a 15% rise, and in 2015 a 2% decline. In 2014 fresh 90% lean beef prices continued to climb all year and eventually reached $278 in September, a 40% rise from the start of that year. Given that 2024 has increased so quickly, 90% lean prices may not be able to continue climbing at this pace. Put into context, a 40% increase from the start of 2024 would equal a 90% fresh lean price of just over $355 per cwt.”

Total U.S. cow slaughter is down 13% from last year through the first eight weeks of the year, according to LMIC. Beef cow slaughter is down 12%, while dairy cow slaughter is down 15%.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed as traders appeared to wait for the week’s cash direction and looking toward Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle narrowly mixed, from an average of 38¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 25¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 70¢ higher (10¢ to $1.07 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $187-$189 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$300 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 11¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $313.22/cwt. Select was 13¢ higher at $303.18/cwt.

Grain futures firmed Tuesday.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ higher., except for fractionally higher to 2¢ lower in the front five contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 320 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 29 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 63 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 35¢ to 75¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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As key commodity prices tumble, farm income this year will be the lowest since 2020, following record-high levels in 2022, according to the recent annual agricultural market baseline outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI).

Even so, FAPRI director Pat Westhoff notes, “Despite a $30 billion drop in net farm income from 2022 to 2023, and another large projected decline in 2024, net farm income remains above annual levels from 2015 to 2020.”

“Our projections indicate that after near-record prices for several crops in the 2022-23 market year, we can expect a retreat,” says Bob Maltsbarger, FAPRI research economist. “In 2023, we saw crops overcome challenging growing conditions and achieve significant production levels that caused a decline in prices. Another year of trend-line yields, and shifting of planted acreage for key crops, could continue the downward trend of prices.”

The FAPRI outlook provides projections for agricultural and biofuel markets and serves as a point of reference for evaluating alternative scenarios for food and agricultural policy. It offers a summary of 10-year “baseline” projections for several economic indicators, including farm income, farm program spending and domestic commodity markets.

“FAPRI’s spring baseline, and subsequent updates, offer an understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing agricultural markets,” Westhoff says. “As producers and policymakers evaluate volatile market conditions, the analyses and projections we’ve shared can aid in risk mitigation.”

Among other FAPRI outlook findings…

• Lower prices for farm inputs, such as fertilizer, partially offset lower prices but don’t offer enough relief to avoid declines in farmers’ net returns.
• Livestock producers can expect reduced feed costs due to lower corn and soybean prices, offsetting price and demand challenges faced in this sector.

            Cattle prices have been strengthened by drought and other factors and an upward trend is projected for 2024 and 2025.

• Demand-driven price declines for hogs, poultry and milk are expected to continue in 2023 and 2024.
• For consumers, food price inflation slowed in 2023, and FAPRI’s report suggests that this trend could continue in 2024. The consumer price index for food is anticipated increase 2.1% in 2024, with the lion’s share of the increase coming from food away from home.

Strong cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values helped Cattle futures extend gains Monday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.38 higher (70¢ higher at the back to $1.80 higher toward the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 higher ($1.92 to $3.12 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.43 higher Monday afternoon at $313.33/cwt. Select was 65¢ higher at $303.05/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on light demand through Monday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $187-$189. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 higher in Nebraska at $295-$300 and $6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $298.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.35 higher at $187.47/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered price was $4.67 higher at $298.06.

Corn futures closed unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led. by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 75 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 130 points higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.16 to $1.68 higher through the front six contracts.

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Imports of Mexican cattle to the United States have averaged more than 1 million head annually for the last four decades — mostly feeder cattle — says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He explains feeder steers comprised 80.7% of imports over the last eight years; 19% spayed feeder heifers.

“In 2023, imports of cattle from Mexico increased 43% year over year,” Peel says. “However, the large percentage increase was in comparison to the very low level in 2022. Imports of Mexican cattle in 2022 were the lowest since 2008.”

Spun differently, Peel says imports of Mexican cattle have averaged 3.2% of the U.S. calf crop for the past 25 years, ranging from 1.9% to 4.3%.

“Many of the Mexican cattle imports enter stocker programs in the U.S. prior to feedlot finishing, although some are placed in feedlots directly upon arrival in the U.S.,” Peel says. “ … Flows of Mexican cattle into the U.S. market vary from year to year because of numerous factors in both countries, including relative cattle numbers and cattle prices, beef market conditions, drought and currency exchange rates.”

On the other end of the trade, Peel notes Mexico is one of the major beef export destinations for U.S. beef. He adds that the U.S. has exported an average of 43,000 head of cattle to Mexico — mainly breeding stock — over the past 25 years. The U.S. exported more than 103,000 head of cattle to Mexico last year, the most since 2002.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $187-$188 and $3 higher in the western Corn belt at $188-$189. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $6 higher at $298.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 higher Friday afternoon at $311.90/cwt. Select was 71¢ higher at $302.40/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter of 601,000 head last week was 18,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 6.5 million head was 381,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 5.5 billion pounds was 244.1 million pounds less (-4.3%).

Strong cash fed cattle prices and supportive wholesale beef values helped Cattle futures close mostly higher Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ higher (27¢ to $1.80 higher), except for an average of 46¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.