WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $1.50-$2.00 higher in Nebraska at $185-$186 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$8 higher in Nebraska at $292-$300 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $292.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 583,000 head was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week and 48,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 5.9 million head was 349,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 4.9 billion pounds was 231.3 million pounds less (-4.5%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ higher Friday afternoon at $307.04/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $297.43/cwt.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday despite the week’s higher cash trade and the supportive outlook in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 83¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 lower (62¢ to $2.20 lower).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher with likely short covering despite neutral to bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 19¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, led by tech stocks and with mixed economic data.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was more than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased 5¢ to $34.57.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 188 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 61¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast weighted average five-area direct fed cattle price for the remainder of this year, in the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, ERS increased projected prices $3 in the first quarter to $179/cwt., $3 in the second quarter to $183, $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $2 in the fourth quarter to $186. ERS increased the forecast annual average price $3 to $183. Prices were forecast higher on recent prices and firm demand for fed cattle.

Beef production was projected 140 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.3 billion pounds. If so, it would be 638 million pounds less (-2.4%) than last year. Forecast production was raised with higher expected slaughter for the remainder of the year offsetting lower expected production in the first quarter.

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, buoyed by stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ higher (42¢ to $1.12 higher), except for unchanged in spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Kansas at $186/cwt. Prices in the Southern Plains last week were $183.

Trade in the North ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in Nebraska to moderate on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. FOB live prices were $1.50 to $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $185-$186 and $2 higher in the western Corn belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices in both regions were $290 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.70 higher through Thursday afternoon at $306.61/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $296.26/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday with apparent technical support and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 18¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 18¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed strongly higher Thursday, led by tech stocks and investor optimism about tamer inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 241 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 20¢ lower to 11¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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The number of farms in the United States has fallen below 2 million for the first time since before the Civil War, according to the recently released 2022 Census of Agriculture, which USDA conducts every five years.

In 2022, there were 1,900,487 farms in the country, a 7% decline from the level reported in the 2017 Census. A farm is defined as an establishment that produced and sold, or would have sold in normal conditions, at least $1,000 in agricultural production in a year.

Total U.S. land in farms declined 2.2% to 880 million acres in 2022. Declining acres, combined with the higher proportional decline in the number of farms, meant that the average farm size increased by 5% to 463 acres per farm.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

Cattle futures weakened Wednesday, as traders appeared to be waiting for cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower (22¢ to $1.07 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ lower (70¢ to $1.30 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 12¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $304.91/cwt. Select was 22¢ higher at $295.09/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday. Keep in mind the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are scheduled for release this Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ lower though Dec ’24 and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower, struggling for demand.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday, helped by inflation comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.

In his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Powell explained, “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 75 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 91 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 70¢ to $1.00 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment rose in February despite producers’ ongoing concerns about their operations’ financial performance in the year ahead, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The February barometer reading of 111 was 5 points higher month to month, buoyed by a 7-point increase 1n the Futures Expectations index. The Current Conditions Index was unchanged.

“Weak crop prices continue to weigh heavily on financial expectations, with mid-February Eastern Corn Belt cash prices for corn and soybeans declining by 7% and 8%, respectively, compared to two months earlier,” explains James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

More specifically, 34% of respondents cited higher input costs as their primary concern for their operation this year, followed by 28% who said it was lower crop and livestock prices.

Each February, the barometer survey asks producers about growth plans for their operation in the next five years. This year, 40% of respondents expressed no plans for growth, with 14% saying they plan to exit or retire. Just over 3 out of 10 respondents anticipate their farm’s annual growth rate to exceed 5%. Responses to this question, which have been consistent in recent years, point to further consolidation among farm operations.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from February 12-16.

Cattle futures moved ahead Tuesday, mostly erasing losses from the previous session.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 81¢ higher (52¢ to $1.32 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 higher (75¢ to $1.50 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 lower Tuesday afternoon at $304.79/cwt. Select was 30¢ lower at $294.87/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday with likely pressure from profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 11¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 404 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 52 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) 59¢ to 79¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Tighter supplies continue boosting cull cow and cow beef prices.

“Southern Plains auction prices for 85-90% lean cows jumped from $85/cwt. to $105 over the last two weeks. National average cutter quality cows hovered around $100,” says David Anderson Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Besides cull cow prices tending to increase until May-June, as cow slaughter declines seasonally Anderson explains beef and dairy cow slaughter remains less year over year.

“Since the first of the year, cow beef production has been about 14% lower than the same period last year. Heavier weights are boosting pounds of production, partially offsetting fewer animals slaughtered,” Anderson says. “The boxed cow beef cutout hit $240/cwt. at the end of February, up from about $205 at the beginning of the year and $32 higher than the same week in 2023.”

Moreover, Anderson says the approaching grilling season should further support prices.

Cattle futures took a breather Monday as traders appeared to await further cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower (32¢ to $1.77 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.47 lower (80¢ to $2.40 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 35¢ higher at $183.30/cwt. The average dressed delivered price was $1.25 lower at $290.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.02 higher Monday afternoon at $306.30/cwt. Select was 57¢ lower at $295.17/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 67 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 35¢ to $1.23 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although the total cattle on feed inventory has been above year-ago levels since last fall, Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky notes it has been decreasing since December is now close to the same year over year.

“The surprisingly high cattle on feed levels have largely been the result of high placement levels in September and October due to dry weather in some parts of the U.S. and high levels of live cattle imports,” Burdine explains, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “In addition to high placements levels last fall, increasing harvest weights in late 2023 also pointed to longer cattle feeding times.”

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, although more than expected feedlot placements in January were 7% less than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s most recent Cattle on Feed Report.

“Cattle on feed numbers tend to decrease seasonally through spring and summer,” Burdine says. “That decrease is likely to be ever greater in 2024 as tighter feeder cattle supplies reach feedlots.”