WLI

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, buoyed by stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ higher (42¢ to $1.12 higher), except for unchanged in spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Kansas at $186/cwt. Prices in the Southern Plains last week were $183.

Trade in the North ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in Nebraska to moderate on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. FOB live prices were $1.50 to $2.00 higher in Nebraska at $185-$186 and $2 higher in the western Corn belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices in both regions were $290 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.70 higher through Thursday afternoon at $306.61/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $296.26/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday with apparent technical support and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 18¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 18¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed strongly higher Thursday, led by tech stocks and investor optimism about tamer inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 241 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 20¢ lower to 11¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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The number of farms in the United States has fallen below 2 million for the first time since before the Civil War, according to the recently released 2022 Census of Agriculture, which USDA conducts every five years.

In 2022, there were 1,900,487 farms in the country, a 7% decline from the level reported in the 2017 Census. A farm is defined as an establishment that produced and sold, or would have sold in normal conditions, at least $1,000 in agricultural production in a year.

Total U.S. land in farms declined 2.2% to 880 million acres in 2022. Declining acres, combined with the higher proportional decline in the number of farms, meant that the average farm size increased by 5% to 463 acres per farm.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

Cattle futures weakened Wednesday, as traders appeared to be waiting for cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ lower (22¢ to $1.07 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ lower (70¢ to $1.30 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 12¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $304.91/cwt. Select was 22¢ higher at $295.09/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday. Keep in mind the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are scheduled for release this Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ lower though Dec ’24 and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower, struggling for demand.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday, helped by inflation comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.

In his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Powell explained, “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 75 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 91 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 70¢ to $1.00 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment rose in February despite producers’ ongoing concerns about their operations’ financial performance in the year ahead, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The February barometer reading of 111 was 5 points higher month to month, buoyed by a 7-point increase 1n the Futures Expectations index. The Current Conditions Index was unchanged.

“Weak crop prices continue to weigh heavily on financial expectations, with mid-February Eastern Corn Belt cash prices for corn and soybeans declining by 7% and 8%, respectively, compared to two months earlier,” explains James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

More specifically, 34% of respondents cited higher input costs as their primary concern for their operation this year, followed by 28% who said it was lower crop and livestock prices.

Each February, the barometer survey asks producers about growth plans for their operation in the next five years. This year, 40% of respondents expressed no plans for growth, with 14% saying they plan to exit or retire. Just over 3 out of 10 respondents anticipate their farm’s annual growth rate to exceed 5%. Responses to this question, which have been consistent in recent years, point to further consolidation among farm operations.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from February 12-16.

Cattle futures moved ahead Tuesday, mostly erasing losses from the previous session.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 81¢ higher (52¢ to $1.32 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 higher (75¢ to $1.50 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 lower Tuesday afternoon at $304.79/cwt. Select was 30¢ lower at $294.87/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday with likely pressure from profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 11¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 404 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 52 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) 59¢ to 79¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Tighter supplies continue boosting cull cow and cow beef prices.

“Southern Plains auction prices for 85-90% lean cows jumped from $85/cwt. to $105 over the last two weeks. National average cutter quality cows hovered around $100,” says David Anderson Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Besides cull cow prices tending to increase until May-June, as cow slaughter declines seasonally Anderson explains beef and dairy cow slaughter remains less year over year.

“Since the first of the year, cow beef production has been about 14% lower than the same period last year. Heavier weights are boosting pounds of production, partially offsetting fewer animals slaughtered,” Anderson says. “The boxed cow beef cutout hit $240/cwt. at the end of February, up from about $205 at the beginning of the year and $32 higher than the same week in 2023.”

Moreover, Anderson says the approaching grilling season should further support prices.

Cattle futures took a breather Monday as traders appeared to await further cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower (32¢ to $1.77 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.47 lower (80¢ to $2.40 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $183-$184.50 in Nebraska and $183-$184 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 35¢ higher at $183.30/cwt. The average dressed delivered price was $1.25 lower at $290.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.02 higher Monday afternoon at $306.30/cwt. Select was 57¢ lower at $295.17/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 67 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 35¢ to $1.23 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although the total cattle on feed inventory has been above year-ago levels since last fall, Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky notes it has been decreasing since December is now close to the same year over year.

“The surprisingly high cattle on feed levels have largely been the result of high placement levels in September and October due to dry weather in some parts of the U.S. and high levels of live cattle imports,” Burdine explains, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “In addition to high placements levels last fall, increasing harvest weights in late 2023 also pointed to longer cattle feeding times.”

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, although more than expected feedlot placements in January were 7% less than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s most recent Cattle on Feed Report.

“Cattle on feed numbers tend to decrease seasonally through spring and summer,” Burdine says. “That decrease is likely to be ever greater in 2024 as tighter feeder cattle supplies reach feedlots.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady to $1.50 higher in Nebraska at $183-$184.50 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $183-$184. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $290 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 higher Friday afternoon at $305.28/cwt., the highest level since October. Choice was $4.67 higher week to week on Friday. Select was $1.56 higher at $295.74/cwt., up $9.43 week to week.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 599,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 5.4 million head was 298,000 head less (-5.3%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 4.5 billion pounds was 194.2 million pounds less (-4.2%).

Cattle futures rebounded Friday, supported by higher wholesale beef prices and strong fundamentals.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.90 higher ($1.30 to $3,10 higher), except for 30¢ higher in newly minted away-Aug. They were narrowly mixed week to week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.35 higher ($2.77 to $4.27 higher). They were an average of $1.40 lower week to week. Besides higher Corn futures and technical correction, some of the mid-week pressure may have stemmed from concerns about the massive Texas wildfires pushing more cattle to market.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Dec ’14 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 10’5¢ higher through the front six contracts.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 14¢ to 22¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 14¢ higher through Aug ’24 and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 183 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.23 to $1.71 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports for fiscal year 2024 were projected $700 million higher than the previous quarterly forecast, in February’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The increase was based on tight domestic supplies and rising unit values.

U.S. agricultural exports were projected $1.0 billion higher at $170.5 billion. Exports of livestock and dairy, as well as grains and feeds, led the increase, offsetting reductions in oilseeds and products.

China was forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports at $28.7 billion. The figure is $800 million less than the previous forecast, largely due to strong South American competition for soybeans and corn.

“Global economic activity continues to moderate in response to ongoing tight monetary policies and weak global trade growth,” according to ERS and FAS analysts. “However, most of the global economy remains resilient due to gradual disinflation and steady growth. As a result, the global economy is expected to avoid a significant economic slowdown in calendar year (CY) 2024.”

For CY 2024, global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was forecast at 3.1%. Projected real GDP growth for the United States was forecast at 2.1% for CY 2024.