WLI

Cattle futures closed lower Monday, hamstrung by more negative outside markets, this time tied to war between Israel and Hamas.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.68 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt. and $1 lower in the north at $183. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower at $288-$290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.41 higher Monday afternoon at $303.42/cwt. Select was $1.72 higher at $277.50/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures closed lower on harvest pressure.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 12¢ higher on geopolitical risk.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, thanks to a surprising reversal, following strong pressure from the unrest in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 197 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 52 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.66 to $3.59 higher through the front six contracts. 

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At best, next year looks to be a year of stabilizing cow numbers rather than expansion, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“Neither Mother Nature nor producers seem to be in much of a hurry to get started with the next herd expansion,” Peel says. “When it does start, herd rebuilding is likely to be a lengthy process with strong prices supporting the recovery of the industry.”

Need for expansion is obvious. Peel points out the nation’s beef cow herd of 28.9 million head Jan. 1 was the smallest since 1962 with liquidation forced by drought.

“Domestic and international demand for U.S. beef will support and encourage a significantly larger herd going forward,” Peel says. “This will require increased heifer retention and reduced cow culling that will further squeeze cattle slaughter and beef production for at least 2-3 years.”

However, lingering drought and economic uncertainty appear to be delaying expansion so far.

“While some producers can’t rebuild due to continued drought or drought recovery, other producers have compelling financial needs to pay down debt or restore equity drained by drought and high input costs before retaining any heifers,” Peel says. “Some older producers are looking at the current market as a means to exit cattle production, or at least, cow-calf production. Sharply higher interest rates and the cost of financing herd rebuilding is also a deterrent for some producers and lenders, especially when combined with some skepticism about how long the current market will last.”

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by lower Corn futures and the notion that boxed beef cutout values might be on the cusp of carving out a seasonal low.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 79¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light to demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt. $1 lower in Nebraska at $183 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $183-$184. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower at $288-$290 in Nebraska and steady in the western Corn belt at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.25 higher Friday afternoon at $302.01/cwt. Select was $1.01 higher at $275.78/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 628,000 head was 16,000 head more than the previous week but 41,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 24.9 million head was 1.2 million head less (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 20.4 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (5.2%).

As for row crop futures, they closed lower Friday on likely week-end profit taking.

Corn futures closed 5¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 12¢ to 16¢ lower through May ‘25 and then 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ lower through May ‘24 and then mostly 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, despite a stronger employment situation than expected. While positive, investors have recently turned bearish on such news, believing it will lead to higher interest rates.

Non-farm payroll employment increased by 336,000 in September, according to the National Employment Summary. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on non-farm payrolls increased by 7¢. Hourly earnings have increased 4.2% over the past 12 months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 288 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 50 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 211 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 34¢ to 48¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

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U.S. beef exports continue lower year over but show signs of resilience, based on data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

August beef exports totaled 109,000 metric tons (mt), down 19% from last year, when export volume was the second highest on record. However, export volume was 6% more than the previous month. Export value of $883.9 million was 15% less year over year but 9% more than July.

“Beef exports certainly face significant headwinds, especially in our large Asian markets where foodservice has been slow to recover and consumer confidence is low due to the impact of rising prices and the strong U.S. dollar,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “But exports to South Korea and Japan did bounce back to some degree after a difficult July. Mexico continues to be a major bright spot for U.S. beef, and exports to other Western Hemisphere partners in Central and South America and the Dominican Republic also gained momentum in August.”

For January through August, beef exports trailed last year’s record pace by 12% in volume (881,343 mt) and 19% in value ($6.69 billion).

August beef export value equated to $395.81 per head of fed slaughter, down 10% from the previous year. The January-August average of $395.71 was 16% less than the same period last year.

Cattle futures closed mixed to lower Thursday with follow-through pressure from declining open interest and lingering concerns about the nation’s economy.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 65¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 48¢ lower to an average of 27¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1 lower at $182/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at $183 up north. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are steady to $2 lower at $288-$290. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in the western Corn Belt last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.00 higher Thursday afternoon at $297.76/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $274.77/cwt.

Wheat futures climbed Thursday on new shipping concerns related to Russia’s war on Ukraine, dragging Corn futures higher.

Corn futures closed 11¢ higher through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 18¢ to 24¢ higher through May ‘25 and then mostly 12¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Aug ‘24 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed after early pressure, as investors await Friday’s jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 16 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.18 to $1.91 lower through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. meat sector continues making strides toward ensuring meat supply chain sustainability in all of its forms. Consider the second annual continuous improvement report from the Meat Institute, a founding member of Protein PACT, which developed a framework for continuous improvement in all areas of sustainability.

The report reflects commitments and actions covering an estimated 90% of meat sold in the United States, with 93% of the Meat Institute’s largest member companies (more than 2000 employees) submitting data.

Among the Meat Institute’s five focus areas for continuous improvement, one key target is the Meat Institute’s aim for 100% of members to have set a science-based emissions reduction target by 2030. To date, 14 Meat Institute general members representing the majority of meat sold in the United States, plus 10 supplier/allied members, have set or publicly committed to set targets verified by the Science-Based Targets Initiative.

 For reporting establishments that handle live animals, report highlights include:

86% have a comprehensive animal welfare program based on the Meat Institute’s Animal Handling Guidelines.

85% require suppliers to implement employee training and species-specific standards for animal care.

82% require animal welfare transport regulations/programs.

Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts explains, “Ninety-eight percent of American households purchase meat, putting our sector undoubtedly at the center of sustaining healthy diets, healthy communities, and a healthy planet for generations to come.”

Cattle futures stabilized following steep losses in the previous session.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 39¢ lower to an average of 33¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 13¢ higher, except for 37¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand to inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $1 lower at mainly $182/cwt.

Trade in the western Corn Belt was light on light to moderate demand with FOB live prices mainly $1 lower at mostly $183/cwt. Dressed delivered prices last week were $290.

In Nebraska, trade was slow on light demand. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered sales at $291. Last week, FOB live prices were $184 and dressed delivered prices were $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.31 lower Wednesday afternoon at $296.76/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $274.87/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 11¢ to 16¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mixed, from 3¢ lower to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, bolstered by labor data suggesting slower employment growth than portrayed by the previous day’s Job Openings and Turnover Summary.

Private employers added 89,000 jobs in September, according to the closely watched ADP National Employment Report. The number was less than expected and represented the slowest growth since January 2021.

“We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 127 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 176 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $4.38 to $5.01 lower through the front six contracts with apparent profit taking, given the gloomier economic outlook.

Cattle futures surged lower Tuesday beneath the weight of pessimistic outside markets tied to more indicators of persistent inflation.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.12 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.42 lower ($1.60 to $2.87 lower).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, pressured by more gains in already-high Treasury yields and a significantly stronger jobs market than anticipated, raising the likelihood of the Fed boosting interest rates. There were 9.6 million job openings Aug. 31, according to the Job Openings and Turnover Summary from the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 430 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 58 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 248 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in September, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index declined 9 points from the previous month to 106. Producers expressed concern about their current situation as well as future prospects for their operations. The Current Conditions and Future Expectations Indices both declined 10 points to a reading of 98 and 109, respectively. All three indices are lower year over year. This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from September 11-15, 2023.

“Weakening prices for major crops and ongoing concerns about high production costs and interest rates weighed on producers’ minds this month,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Producers continue to point to high input costs as a top concern for their farming operations in the year ahead. One-third of respondents in this month’s survey cite it as their number one concern, followed by rising interest rates, and lower crop and/or livestock prices.

Producers remain relatively optimistic about farmland values, which Mintert says is surprising given the percentage of respondents who expressed concerns about high input costs, rising interest rates, and the risk of lower crop and livestock prices. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index was unchanged at a reading of 126, while the long-term index rose 2 points to 153. Respondents who expect farmland values to rise over the next five years continue to point to non-farm investor demand for farmland along with inflation as the top two reasons for farmland values to continue rising.