WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although established trade was undeveloped through Friday afternoon, there were private reports of FOB live bids at $258-$260 in various regions.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $255-$256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $256 in Kansas and $255-$258 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $403-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 45¢ higher Friday afternoon at $394.37/cwt. Select was $2.67 lower at $372.08. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.44 higher, while Select was 64¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 526,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 12.8 million head was 1.2 million head fewer (-8.9%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.5 billion pounds was 758.9 million pounds less (-6.2%).

Futures markets were closed Friday, in observance of Juneteenth.

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.12 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $9.97 higher. During the same period Corn futures closed an average of 4’2¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Equity markets were closed Friday, but major U.S. financial indices were up on the week, stemming from the announced peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Week to week on Thursday, Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) closed an average of $9.28 lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle markets continue to fade news of New World screwworm (NWS) arriving in the United States, helped in part by the fact so few infections have been confirmed. As of last Friday, there had been a total of 12 cases since the first confirmed detection June 3, affecting domestic cattle, goats and a single dog, most all in four Texas counties, according to USDA’s NWS Confirmed Detections dashboard.

The most profound impact on domestic cattle markets to date stems from continued closure of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. When Mexican feeder cattle are again eligible for export to the United States, they might not return to levels before the U.S. border was closed due to NWS.

For one thing, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out the Mexican cattle and beef industries evolved significantly during the past two decades.

“Beef production in Mexico has increased an average of 2% per year in the last decade. This is the result of increased cattle slaughter, about 1.6% annually, and increasing carcass weights,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Average cattle carcass weights have increased from about 600 pounds 25 years ago to roughly 710 pounds currently. The Mexican beef industry evolved from predominantly grass-fed production to current production where most cattle are fed in feedlots. This, along with improved cattle genetics and management, has led to increased carcass weights.”

Peele notes Mexican cattle exports averaged 1.2 million head over the last 25 years and typically represent 14-16% of the calf crop.   

“Cattle and beef trade between Mexico and the U.S. has evolved from a long history of cattle exports to the U.S. to include Mexico becoming a major beef export destination for the U.S., and recently with Mexico becoming a significant source of U.S. beef imports,” Peel says. “The increasingly integrated trade relationship adds value to the beef industries in both countries.

“Not exporting feeder cattle to the U.S. means that more cattle are staying in Mexico to be finished for beef production. It also likely means that fewer cattle are being imported from Central America, which has been a source of supplemental cattle supply in recent years. Mexican beef imports will likely decrease, and beef exports will increase in the absence of cattle exports.  Production systems and supply chains will continue to evolve in Mexico.”

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.

Cattle futures softened Thursday with the lack of negotiated cash fed cattle direction, positioning ahead of the three-day weekend and monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), as well as potential profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $255-$256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $256 in Kansas and $255-$258 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $403-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $393.92/cwt. Select was $2.51 lower at $374.75.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Thursday as traders positioned ahead of the Juneteenth holiday and without bullish news.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 72 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 80 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 496 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the CME were 27¢ to 63¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to friendly with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in May, which was 183,000 head fewer (-9.7%) than the same time last year and nearly 4% less than analyst estimates ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 33% went on feed weighing 600 lbs. or less, 50% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 17% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in May of 1.6 million head were 207,000 head fewer (11.8%) less, and 1% less than pre-report estimates.

Cattle on feed June 1 of 11.7 million head were 239,000 more year over year (2.1%), which was slightly less than expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle futures took a breather on Wednesday with likely profit taking and positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 41¢ lower, except for 62¢ higher in spot Jun. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 68¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $255-$256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $256 in Kansas and $255-$258 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $403-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.08 lower Wednesday afternoon at $394.50/cwt. Select was 41¢ higher at $377.26.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher on Wednesday.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 18¢ to 19¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by increased Treasury yields, in response to the Fed’s suggestion they might increase interest rates later this year to battle inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 507 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 91 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 354 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the CME were 9¢ to 45¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered expected feeder steer prices a touch for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month, in the June Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on recent price data, the ERS lowered projected prices for 750-800 lbs., basis Oklahoma City, by $2 in the third and fourth quarters to $378/cwt. and $382, respectively. The forecast annual average price also declined $2 to $375.22. The first-quarter price next year was unchanged at $378.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS left the projected five-area direct average fed steer price unchanged for the remainder of this year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Forecast prices are $252/cwt. in the third quarter and $255 in the fourth quarter with an annual average price of $250.16. The first-quarter price next year was projected to be $250.

That was with beef production this year projected to be 109 million pounds less than last month (-0.4%) at 25.4 billion pounds. The total would be 565 million pounds less (-2.2%) than last year.

Cattle futures gained more steam on Tuesday, supported by the recent bounce in wholesale beef values and thoughts cash fed cattle prices could gain this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.52 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.56 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $255-$256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $256 in Kansas and $255-$258 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $403-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.53 higher Tuesday afternoon at $399.58/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $376.85.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 11¢ higher on reports of China purchases. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Tuesday with follow-through support from the U.S.-Iran peace agreement but pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 328 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 42 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 307 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the CME were $1.91 to $4.12 lower through the front six contracts.

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Even as New World screwworm dominates headlines and impacts some producers, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University notes lower new-crop feed prices will likely have a more pronounced market-level impact.

In a recent issue of In the Cattle Markets, Koontz points to the significant decline in feed-based futures prices the last few weeks, with Corn (Dec ‘26) down 20%, Wheat (Jly’26) down about 10% and Soybean Meal (Dec ’26) down more than 7%.

“These changes have occurred well ahead of the USDA Acreage report due out at the end of this month,” Koontz says. “…The futures market is communicating that drought and other production risks are substantially mitigated. Or at least that is what the funds think.”

Currently subdued grain prices should help support calf and feeder cattle prices, according to Koontz.

“The corn price, in isolation, has the ability to reduce costs of gain by 10-15¢ per pound of gain, and with lower other feeds, then the costs of gain will remain modest compared to the past five years,” Koontz explains. “Be aware, these price changes don’t impact feed in the bunk but rather have the potential to impact costs of gain into 2027 and the value of this year’s calves.”

Cattle futures bounced higher Monday, buoyed by positive outside markets and falling Crude Oil futures, in response to the announced resolution to the U.S.-Iran war. Keep in mind that Juneteenth on Friday shortens the trading week and that the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be published Thursday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.93 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $255-$256/cwt., mainly steady to $2 lower in Kansas at $256, $1 lower to $2 higher in the North at $255-$258. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $405 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $403-$405.

The five-area direct weighted average fed steer price last week was 45¢ lower at $256.08. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 22¢ higher at $404.88.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 higher Monday afternoon at $395.05/cwt. Select was $3.69 higher at $376.41.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday, despite lower oil prices, offering hope that selling might be reaching the end for now.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday with new of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 468 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 122 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 795 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the CME were $2.19 to $3.44 lower through the front six contracts.