WLI

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.81 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 77¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 8¢ to 12¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 16¢ lower through Aug ‘24 and then 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few dressed delivered prices in Nebraska at $290/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $178-$179 in Kansas, $182 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $290-$292 in Nebraska and $290 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.91 lower Thursday afternoon at $311.56/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $286.17/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, following the previous session’s sharp losses tied to investor concerns about the potential for rising interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 123 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 48¢ to 67¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports softened in July, posting the lowest volume since January, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). However, export value per head of fed slaughter still exceeded $400.

July beef exports totaled 103,167 mt, down 18% from a year ago and the lowest in six months. Export value was $810.4 million, down 19% and the lowest since February.

For January through July, beef exports trailed last year’s record pace by 11% in volume (772,343 mt) and 19% in value ($5.81 billion).

“It’s definitely a challenging environment on the beef side, due in part to limited supplies but also persistent headwinds in our key Asian markets,” according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Though it’s taking longer than anticipated, we still expect a broader foodservice rebound in Asia. And some bright spots for U.S. beef include sustained demand in Taiwan, especially for alternative beef cuts, and the continued momentum in Mexico. It’s also encouraging to see per-head export value maintaining a high level. This is an important metric for gauging the returns delivered by the international markets, even when our production is trending lower.”

Cattle futures basically tread water on Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 33¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 19¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ higher, except for an average of 11¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $178-$179 in Kansas, $182 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $290-$292 in Nebraska and $290 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 99¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $315.48/cwt. Select was 75¢ lower at $289.54/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher, supported by expected reduction in crop ratings.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 7¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured in part by rising oil prices fueled by Russia and Saudi Arabia extending voluntary production cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 195 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 18 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.14 to $1.31 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment dropped sharply in August, as measured by the monthly Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index declined 8 points month to month in August to 115, as the Current Conditions Index fell 13 points to 108. The Future Expectations Index was down 5 points to 119.

“Rising interest rates and concerns about high input prices continue to put downward pressure on producer sentiment,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “This month over half (60%) of the producers we surveyed said they expect interest rates to rise in the upcoming year.”

When asked about their top concerns for their farming operations in the next 12 months, producers continue to point to higher input prices (34% of respondents) and rising interest rates (24% of respondents). Even though crop prices weakened significantly this summer, only 20% of respondents chose declining commodity prices as one of their top concerns.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from August 14-18, 2023.

Cattle futures drifted lower Friday on pre-weekend positioning, sluggish trade and steady to softer cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 lower, except for $3.30 higher in newly minted away Aug.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 41¢ lower, except for $1.00 higher in new away Feb.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade for the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $179/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $178-$179, $3 lower in Nebraska at $182 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $183-$185.

The five-area direct weighted average fed steer price through Thursday of last week was $182.69/cwt. on a live basis, which was $2.64 less than the previous week. The weighted average steer price in the beef was $2.03 lower at $290.62.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 70¢ higher Friday afternoon at $314.49/cwt. Select was $1.04 higher at $290.29/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 629,000 head, which was 3,000 head more than the previous week but 13,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.8 million head was 940,000 head fewer (-4.1%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.8 billion pounds was 925.6 million pounds less (-4.9%) year over year.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures closed narrowly mixed Friday with some defensive positioning ahead of the long weekend.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mixed but mostly unchanged to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday as investors closed the books on August.

The nation’s unemployment rate increased 0.3% in August to 3.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the monthly Employment Situation Summary. That was higher than expected ahead of the report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August.

Average hourly earnings in August for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 8¢ (0.2%) to $33.82. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 4.3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 3 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.37 to $1.92 higher through the front six contracts with follow through support from tighter supply expectations.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts cash receipts for farm commodities this year to be $41.4 billion less (-7.5%) than last year at $513.6 billion. This includes forecasted declines of $13.9 billion (-23.6%) in milk receipts and $11.6 billion (-12.6%) in corn receipts.

“In addition, production expenses are expected to increase by $14.8 billion (3.3%) to $458.0 billion in 2023,” ERS analysts explain. “Finally, direct Government payments to farmers are projected to fall by $3.5 billion (-21.6%) from 2022 to $12.6 billion in 2023, because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance.

ERS forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI) — calculated as gross cash income minus cash expenses — to decrease by $60.5 billion (-28.9%) from 2022 to $148.6 billion in 2023.

More broadly, U.S. net farm income (NFI) — calculated as gross cash income minus cash expenses — is forecast to fall by $48.0 billion (-25.4%) from 2022 to $141.3 billion in 2023.

“NFI is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income,” ERS analysts explain. They note the projected decreases in 2023 come after both NCFI and NFI reached all-time highs in 2022.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ higher, except for lower in expiring Aug.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices on Thursday were mainly steady to lower than last week.

Trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle with FOB live prices steady to $1 higher at $179/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

In Kansas, trade was slow to moderate on moderate demand with FOB live prices steady to $1 lower at $178-$179.

FOB live prices in Nebraska were $2-$3 lower at $182 on moderate trade and demand. There were a few live delivered trades at $186.50. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 lower at $290-$292.

In the western Corn Belt, FOB live prices were $1 lower at $184-$185 on slow to moderate trade and moderate demand. There were a few dressed delivered trades at mostly $290 but too few to trend. Prices in the beef last week were $292 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.32 lower Thursday afternoon at $313.79/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $289.25/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales (2023) of 18,200 metric tons (MT) for the week ending Aug. 24 were 59% more than the previous week and 35% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Mexico.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday on likely continued month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 3¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 16¢ to 18¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Thursday as investors closed the books on August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 168 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 15 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.35 to $2.00 higher through the front six contracts, fueled by chatter that Russia will announce more reduction in crude oil exports.

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USDA decreased expected U.S. beef exports for this year and next in the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from the Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service.

U.S. beef exports for Fiscal year (FY) 2023 were forecast $200 million lower than the previous report at $9.1 billion as a strong U.S. dollar and high prices curb foreign demand. FY 2024 beef exports were forecast $600 million less at $8.5 billion on lower volumes driven by tighter U.S. supplies.

Total U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year FY 2024 were projected at $172.0 billion, down $5.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2023. Less exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and dairy products were the main driver of the reduction.

For economic perspective, world real GDP was projected to grow by 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024, which was 0.2% more than the previous forecast, as global economies and consumer spending have proven resilient in the face of inflationary pressures.

Similarly, projected growth for the United States’ real GDP in 2023 was raised to 1.8% from the previous estimate of 1.6%. Growth in 2024 is expected to moderate to around 1.0%

“The global economic outlook for calendar years 2023 and 2024 remains positive despite several economic challenges,” according to USDA analysts. “These include continued inflation concerns in the United States and elsewhere, uncertainty regarding monetary policies, macroeconomic issues in China, and Black Sea grain trade disruptions due to the Ukraine war.”

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with traders awaiting the week’s cash trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.25 lower

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.41 lower, from $2.20 lower in waning spot Aug to 80¢ lower at the back of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $178-$179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $179 in Kansas, $185 in Nebraska and $182-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292 in Nebraska and $292-$295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $315.11/cwt. Select was 15¢ lower at $289.53/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Wednesday with likely month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday despite a more dour employment outlook.

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August, according to the August ADP^® National Employment Report^™ produced by the ADP Research Institute^® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). Job growth was less than expected.

“After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we’re moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 75 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 26¢ to 47¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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As with any successful program, you can find detractors of the national Beef Checkoff, but it’s hard to oppose what the program accomplishes each year and over time.

Here are a few recent examples.

*With consumers making more shopping decisions online, e-commerce efforts are essential to driving beef sales. National e-commerce campaigns during the holidays and summer grilling months helped put beef front and center for consumers shopping online. These e-commerce campaigns delivered impressive results, generating more than $22 million in incremental beef sales and reaching nearly 16 million households.

*Research continues to serve as the foundation for all Beef Checkoff-funded initiatives. Nutrition research provides proof that beef has a role in a healthy, sustainable diet. Current projects focus on human clinical trials investigating healthy diets, across the lifespan, where beef is the primary source of dietary protein, and focuses on the impact of cardiometabolic health, strength, and performance, and the benefits of beef in the diets of children and adolescents.

*The National Beef Quality Audit (NBQA), conducted approximately every five years since 1991, is foundational research that provides an understanding of what quality means to the various industry sectors, and the value of those quality attributes. This research helps the industry make modifications necessary to increase the value of its products. The findings from the 2022 NBQA serve to improve quality, minimize economic loss, and aid in advancements in producer education for the U.S. beef industry.

Results from the 2022 NBQA indicate that the beef cattle industry is producing a high-quality product that consumers want more efficiently and the industry’s primary focus across the supply chain remains food safety. In addition, there was an increase in the frequency of Prime and Choice quality grades, with 7.5% of carcasses grading Prime, the highest since audits began. Market sectors also reported that their companies strive to increase their sustainability, and work with the entire beef supply chain to do so.

*Cow-calf producers, stockers and feedyards implement Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) practices on their operations to produce the highest quality cattle and provide consumers with the best possible eating experience. BQA principles don’t end at the farm gate, and cattle haulers can also become BQA Transportation (BQAT) certified through recently updated modules. Since BQAT began in 2017, more than 32,000 certifications have been completed.