WLI

Firmer Corn futures helped pressure Feeder Cattle futures an average of $1.10 lower Tuesday (55¢ lower at the back to $1.67 lower).

Live Cattle futures narrowly mixed, unchanged to an average of 36¢ lower in the front five contracts and then an average of 49¢ higher. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $180/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $188 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $295 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 90¢ higher at $302.39/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $276.16/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 1¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured as one agency downgraded credit in the banking sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 158 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 110 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 75¢ to 98¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Nationwide, pasture and range conditions eroded some last week, according to the Crop Progress report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

For the week ending Aug. 6, 38% of pasture and range was rated as Good (31%) or Excellent (7%), which was 1% less than the previous week but 14% more than a year earlier. 32% was rated as Poor (18%) or Very Poor (14%), which was 3% more than a week earlier but 17% less than a year earlier. States with more than 40% of pasture and range rated as Poor or Very Poor include: Arizona (47%); Minnesota (53%); Missouri (58%); Nevada (40%); New Mexico (44%); Texas (64%); and Washington (43%).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 higher in the Southern Plains at $180/cwt. Live-delivered prices in Kansas were $184.00-$185.50. Live FOB prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $188 and $1-$3 high in the western Corn Belt at $188. Dressed-delivered prices were $1-$3 higher at $295 in a light test.

The five-area direct weighted average steer price was $1.89 higher last week on a live basis at $186.70/cwt. The weighted average fed steer price in the beef was $1.51 higher at $295.14.

Even so, Cattle futures closed lower Monday on potential profit taking and retrenching.

Live Cattle futures an average of 96¢ lower (55¢ lower at the back to $1.20 lower in spot Aug). 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.27 lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ lower Monday afternoon at $301.49/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $275.01/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures closed lower Monday on positive weekend rains.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 24¢ to 38¢ lower through Aug ‘24 and then mostly 8¢ to 15¢ lower.

However, KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 10¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by positive corporate earnings reports from the likes of Berkshire Hathaway.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 407 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 85 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 57¢ to 88¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Despite price levels offering the economic incentive, national herd expansion has yet to lift off. More specifically, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University explains in his weekly market comments that rebuilding is slower than what occurred following the 2011-13 drought that shoved cattle numbers to a cyclical low in 2014.

“Continuing Drought is still an issue in significant regions of cattle country,” Peel says.  “While drought is not likely causing a great deal of additional herd liquidation from a broader market perspective, it surely is preventing herd expansion in those drought-stricken areas.”

Moreover, he explains areas already emerged from drought need two to three years to heal and also to replenish hay supplies.

Similarly, Peel says, “Many cattle operations have suffered from considerable financial stress from drought and high input costs. The short-run need to realize immediate returns from higher cattle prices may be causing continued heifer and cull cow sales for now.”

Next, Peel cites the uncertainty surrounding input costs.

“Record hay prices and elevated supplemental feed costs have had a huge impact in drought regions. Record or near-record high fertilizer, chemical and fuel costs have been a significant challenge for producers, especially in regions of introduced pastures,” Peel says. “Though some input prices have moderated in 2023, input price uncertainty has producers reacting cautiously to higher cattle prices.”

Plus, he points to significantly higher interest cost and a much slower economy than existed during the previous herd expansion.

Perhaps a less obvious reason for expansion reluctance is producer expectations.

“Until enough cow-calf producers anticipate enough returns for a long enough period of time, herd expansion will be tempered,” Peel says. “In the meantime, cattle supplies will continue to tighten. Market prices for calves and feeder cattle will continue to increase as the market provides more price incentives that will eventually strengthen producer expectations and jump-start herd expansion. That process is likely to begin in earnest in the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.”

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by the weekly decline in Corn futures and the hint of higher cash prices.

Live Cattle futures an average of $1.40 higher (92¢ higher at the back to $2.40 higher in spot Aug). 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.91 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle demand and trade were moderate in the western Corn Belt through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, live FOB prices were $2-$3 higher at $188/cwt. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $294-$295.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to limited on light demand.

Although too few to trend, there were a few live delivered sales in Kansas at $184.00-$185.50 and a few live FOB sales in Nebraska at $188.

The previous week, live FOB prices were $178-$179/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $186 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices were $292-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Friday afternoon at $301.79/cwt. Select was $1.83 lower at $276.48/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures firmed on Friday but continued to be capped by the favorable weather outlook.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 10¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday. Pressure included a less robust jobs report than expected.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5%.

Average hourly earnings in July for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 14¢ (0.4%) to $33.74. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 150 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.00 to $1.27 higher through the front six contracts.

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United States farm real estate value — a measurement of the value of all land and buildings on farms, averaged $4,080 per acre for 2023, up $280 per acre (+7.4%) from 2022, according to Land Values-2023 Summary from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

United States cropland value averaged $5,460 per acre in 2023, which was $410 more per acre (+8.1%) than the previous year. Regionally, value increased from a low of 2.2% in the Delta states (AR, LA and MS) with an average value of $3,260/acre, to a high of 14.1% in the Northern Plains (KS, NE, ND and SD) with an average value of $4,200 per acre.

United States pasture value averaged $1,760 per acre in 2023, which was $110 more per acre (+6.7%) than the previous year. Regionally, value increased from a low of 2.4% in the Delta states (AR, LA and MS) with an average value of $2,940/acre, to a high of 13.5% in the Northern Plains (KS, NE, ND and SD) with an average value of $1,510 per acre.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few live FOB sales in the western Corn Belt at $188/cwt., but too few to trend.

Last week, live FOB prices were $178-$179/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $186 in Nebraska, and $185-$186 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.17 lower Thursday afternoon at $302.01/cwt. Select was 84¢ higher at $278.31/cwt.

Cattle futures on Thursday mainly regained what was lost in the previous session as traders returned the focus to fundamentals rather than the selloff triggered by the downgrading of U.S. credit.

Live Cattle futures an average of 76¢ higher (12¢ to $1.17 higher). 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.35 higher.

Corn futures continued lower Thursday with the more favorable production outlook coupled with continued anemic international demand.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 7¢ lower through May ‘24 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 9¢ to 19¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed but softer again Thursday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 13 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.69 to $2.06 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Most of the decline in beef production compared to a year ago stems from reduced beef cow slaughter, steer slaughter, and lighter slaughter weights,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Beef cow slaughter is down more than 12% while steer slaughter has declined close to 5%. Alternatively, dairy cow slaughter has increased nearly 6% compared to a year ago due to declining milk prices.”

Griffith points out heifer slaughter is less 1% lower year over year, further affirming that fact that heifer retention has yet to begin.

“All of these points should support beef prices remaining elevated in the near term and in the longer term,” Griffith explains. He adds that “It will be interesting to see how imports are adjusting to meet the demand for lean grinding beef, given the production decline domestically.

Commodity and equity markets saw widespread selling Wednesday on the news that Fitch Ratings downgraded the long-term credit rating for United States.

The lack of weekly cash fed cattle price direction and profit taking may also have pressured Cattle futures.

Live Cattle futures an average of 86¢ lower (50¢ lower at the back to $1.47 lower in spot Aug). 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.15 lower (57¢ lower toward the back to $1.80 lower toward the front).

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 8¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 10¢ to 17¢ lower through Dec ‘24 and then 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 14¢ to 20¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $178-$179/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $186 in Nebraska, and $185-$186 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.92 lower Wednesday afternoon at $303.18/cwt. Select was $2.13 lower at $277.47/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by the aforementioned lowering of the U.S. credit rating. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 348 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 63 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 310 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.53 to $1.88 lower  through the front six contracts.

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Strong demand and underlying U.S. economic strength are fueling cattle prices even more than snugger cattle supplies and beef production, says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“Within the important underlying fundamentals, slaughter weights are seasonally tight, cattle on feed over 120 days are very tight compared to prior years, packer margins and feedlot margins are very strong. These are all bullish signals,” Koontz says. “At some point in the future, we will need to be concerned about competing meat supplies, trade volumes, the strength of the dollar, and interest rates versus inflation. But this summer the cattle and beef market just continue to show dramatic strength. And this is largely due to the underlying strength in the domestic economy.”

Koontz notes cattle markets have the strength to move higher but there are signs of slowing momentum.