WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to moderate on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early sales in Nebraska at $175-$176/cwt. on a live basis and $280 in the beef, and at $176-$177 and $280 in the western Corn Belt.

On Wednesday, live trade in the Southern Plains was $2 lower at $170.

Last week, live prices were $176-$178 in Nebraska and $172-$178 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $281 in Nebraska and $280-$285 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct monthly weighted average price for fed steers in April was $177.09/cwt., on a live basis, which was $35.43 (+25.0%) than a year earlier. The weighted average fed steer price in the beef was $285.28, which was $56.42 more (+24.6%) year over year.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 lower Thursday afternoon at $305.72/cwt. Select was 4¢ higher at $284.58/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales (2023) for the week ending May 4 were 16,600 metric tons. That was 18% less than the previous week, but 16% more than the prior four-week average, according to the weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico and Taiwan.

Cattle futures were Mixed Thursday with Feeder Cattle benefitting from lower Corn futures and Live Cattle stalling with the weaker cash outlook for the week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ higher except for $1.25 lower in spot May.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ lower (5¢ to 82¢ lower) except for 12¢ higher in Away Aug.

Grain and soybean futures continued under pressure Thursday from the fast pace of domestic planting to positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 12¢ to 13¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mixed, mostly fractionally higher to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday with pressure from regional bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 221 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 22 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.61 to $1.69 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gave back some of the previous sessions gains on Wednesday amid likely profit taking and uncertainty about this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ lower except for 25¢ higher in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 42¢ lower except for 27¢ higher in the back contract.

Corn futures firmed Wednesday with likely short covering, while Wheat and Soybean futures eroded as traders position ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 1¢ to 10¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 15¢ lower through Sep ‘23 and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt.

Last week, live prices were $172/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $176-$178 in Nebraska and $172-$178 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $281 in Nebraska and $280-$285 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 51¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $306.87/cwt. Select was 35¢ lower at $284.54/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday as investors considered lower than expected inflation, but still high inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4% in April on a seasonally adjusted

basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.9% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 95¢ to $1.15 lower through the front six contracts.

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Record high fed cattle prices and moderating input costs fueled gains in cattle feeding returns last month, according to the Livestock Information Center (LMIC).

“April cattle feeding returns calculated by LMIC soared over $300 per head in April as live steers in the five-area recorded record-breaking highs at mid-month. Live steer prices hit a new daily high of $182.86/cwt., more than $10 higher than the previous daily high of $172.08 recorded in late November 2014,” LMIC analysts say, in the most recent Livestock Monitor. “Nearly all of April recorded prices above that previous record. The monthly simple average calculated in Dodge City (price used in the LMIC calculation) for Choice fed steers was $173.43, equivalent to what feedlots were paying for 700-800-pound steers seven months prior. LMIC calculates a breakeven price at time of placement, which was estimated at $149.96/cwt.”

LMIC analysts note, April’s calculation is based off a feeder steer price that dipped $6 from the month before.

“Seasonally, fed cattle prices should be hitting a bottom, and with higher placements than the industry expected, this fall live cattle market may not be as tight as originally expected,” say LMIC analysts. “Still, cattle feeders are expected to have an excellent year, with no month currently projected to be negative in 2023. LMIC estimates the average returns for cattle feeders will be over $200 per head in 2023. Through April, cattle feeding returns have averaged $175 per head monthly.”

Sharply lower Corn futures helped Cattle futures regain more lost ground on Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.94 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.20 higher.

Corn and Soybean futures weakened Tuesday, with pressure from the fast domestic planting pace and renewed hopes for renewal of the Black Sea Initiative. Corn received added pressure from China’s cancellation of sales of 272,000 metric tons.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ lower through Jly ‘24, and then mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 13¢ to 18¢ lower through May ‘24 and then 9¢ to 11¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 15¢ higher through May ‘24 and then 1¢ to 5¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $172/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $176-$178 in Nebraska and $172-$178 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $281 in Nebraska and $280-$285 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.18 lower Tuesday afternoon at $307.38/cwt. Select was 23¢ lower at $284.89/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Tuesday as investors await key inflation data later this week and ponder the outcome of debt ceiling talks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 18 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 77 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 55¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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“Tightening beef supplies, underlying general strength in beef demand and seasonal grilling demand are all pushing wholesale beef prices higher,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Consumer beef demand has continued to be remarkably resilient and wholesale beef prices are likely to go higher yet as beef production continues to decrease going forward.”

For perspective, Peel notes Choice boxed beef prices the first week of May averaged 309.41/cwt., which was 9% higher than the beginning of this year and 20% higher year over year. He explains prices so far this year are following a seasonal pattern — typically a peak in May ahead of grilling season before declining in the second half of the year.

“The May peak in boxed beef price is largely driven by retail grocery demand for Strip Loins and Sirloin cuts that move primarily through retail grocery channels. Chuck Roll prices are also very strong currently, which may be driven by export demand and retail grocery demand, including ground beef,” Peel says. “The most valuable cuts of Tenderloin and Ribeye are not typically seasonally strong this time of year, but both have been higher all year so far in 2023, reflecting continued strong restaurant demand.”

Peel adds ground beef demand typically increases during the summer due to grilling demand as well as increased consumer use of quick-service restaurants.

“The price of 90-percent lean trimmings (mostly cow beef) have been rising all year and are currently moving higher than year-ago levels,” Peel says. “More dramatically, the price of 50-percent lean trimmings has moved sharply higher to a current level that is unprecedented except for a brief spike during the pandemic in 2020.”

Cattle futures rebounded some Monday, especially Feeder Cattle, supported by lower new-crop Corn futures and overall positive fundamentals.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.55 higher (90¢ higher in spot May to $2.02 higher at the back).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ higher.

There was no Monday negotiated cash fed trade summary from USDA available at press time.

The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $3.22 lower on a live basis at $173.93/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was $3.11 lower at $280.94.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Monday afternoon at $308.56/cwt. Select was $3.04 lower at $285.12/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower after old-crop contracts, perhaps pressured in part by rapid planting progress.

KC HRW Wheat closed 9¢ to 11¢ higher through Dec ‘23 and then 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ lower through Mar ‘25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday as investors await key inflation data later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 55 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.72 to $1.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle sold from $3/cwt. lower to $3 higher in the North Central and South Central regions last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. They sold $1-$4 higher in the Southeast. Auction volume continued stronger year over year.

Through the first four months of this year, the number of stocker and feeder cattle sold was 4% higher year over year, according to Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. That is based on the weekly AMS National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

“On the surface, the stronger receipts totals are at odds with the 2% smaller calf crop in 2022 than in 2021. However, the data are most likely indicating market timing differences instead of changes in total cattle inventory,” Maples explains. “Cattle prices have been significantly stronger this year as compared to a year ago and drought continues to be a key issue in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and other areas which is limiting grazing opportunities. These factors have likely led to more cattle moving into feedlots or grow yards earlier than normal. Compared to the 5-year average from 2017-2021, receipts are 1% lower so far in 2023.”

Cattle futures mostly softened Friday, unable to shake off the week’s lower cash fed cattle prices and growing concerns about domestic and global economic growth.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ lower (15¢ to $1.72 lower). They were an average of $7.34 lower week to week on Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $3.74 lower week to week on Thursday at $199.46.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 17¢ lower, except for an average of 21¢ higher in the front two contracts. They were an average of $3.38 lower week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $172/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $176 and $2-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at $172-$178. Dressed prices were $2-$5 lower in Nebraska at $281. The previous week, dressed prices were $285 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 33¢ lower Friday afternoon at $309.19/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $288.16/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the week was 623,000 head, which was 1,000 head less than the previous week and 38,000 head less than a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.3 million head was 384,000 head fewer (-3.3%). Year-to-date estimate beef production of 9.3 billion pounds was 477.6 million pounds less (-4.9%) than the same time last year.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday, led by wheat, with more support from worries about renewal of the Black Sea Initiative.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 26¢ to 34¢ higher through May ‘24 and then 16¢ to 21¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 7¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 18¢ higher through Jan ‘24 and then 5¢ to 8¢ higher through Mar ’25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday with support from a rebound in regional banks and Apple beating quarterly earnings estimates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 546 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 249 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.56 to $2.78 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports in March showed signs of recovery from weakness during the last several months, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). However, volume and value remained less than last year’s record pace.

Beef exports volume was 120,495 metric tons in March, down 5% from a year ago. Export value fell 17% to $892.6 million, but both volume and value were the highest in five months. Through the first quarter, beef exports were down 8% year-over-year to 326,494 mt, valued at $2.35 billion (down 22%).

March beef export value per head of fed slaughter was 16% less than last year at $397.22. Value per head of fed slaughter through the first quarter was $373.42, which was 21% less year over year.

“U.S. beef exports faced considerable headwinds late last year and at the beginning of 2023, but the March results show some encouraging trends,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “Most Asian markets showed renewed momentum in March, while exports continued to trend higher to Mexico, the Caribbean and South Africa.”

March beef exports to Mexico were well above last year, while export growth to the Caribbean was highlighted by a record month for the Dominican Republic. Exports also increased year-over-year to the Philippines, while beef variety meat demand strengthened in South Africa and Peru. March exports to South Korea were below last year but were the largest in 10 months, while exports to China/Hong Kong were the largest since October.

U.S. pork exports also were encouraging; the most since May 2021. Export volume for the months was 17% higher year over year and value was up 18%. Through the first quarter, export volume is 14% more than the same time last year and value is 15% higher at $1.96 billion.