WLI

Historically strong February wholesale beef values and dwindling beef production, compounded by reduced feedlot performance due to winter weather, helped Cattle futures move higher Tuesday, despite bearish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 54¢ higher (22¢ to $1.17 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 58¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.31 higher Tuesday afternoon at 287.20/cwt. Select was $2.79 higher at $270.84/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there were a few live trades in Nebraska at $161/cwt. and a few in the western Corn Belt at $164.

Last week, prices on a live basis were $162 in the Southern Plains, $159-$161 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $257.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 18¢ to 21¢ higher through Aug. ’23 and then mostly 10¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices dove lower Tuesday with investors apparently rattled by higher bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 697 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 81 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 294 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 12¢ to 19¢ lower  through the front six contracts.

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the growth neutral threshold 50.0 in February, for the third consecutive month. The index is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy continues to experience slow economic growth. Only 7.4% of bankers reported improving economic conditions for the month with 85.2% indicating no change in economic conditions from January’s slow growth,” says Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The slowing economy, higher borrowing costs and labor shortages continued to constrain the business confidence index to a weak 44.4, but up from 40.4 in January. “Over the past 11 months, the regional confidence index has fallen to levels indicating a very negative outlook,” Goss explains.

The region’s farmland price index decreased to 63.5 from January’s 66.0. This was the 29th straight month that the index has advanced above 50.0. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices on a live basis last week were $1-$2 higher in the Southern Plains at $162/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $159-$161 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $160-$162. Dressed prices were $3 higher at $257.

The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $1.55 higher on a live basis at $161.17/cwt. The weighted average steer price in the beef was $2.87 higher at $256.78.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.85 higher Monday afternoon at $282.89/cwt. Select was $2.16 higher at $268.05/cwt.

CME Agriculture futures and equity markets were closed Monday in observance of President’s Day

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Tighter cattle supplies continue to drive strong auction demand.

“…cattle buyers are in fierce competition as they pull cattle from a smaller calf crop that will be even smaller this year,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Cow-calf producers are going to have some opportunistic decisions to make the next few years as they will be inclined to retain heifers to grow the beef herd. However, those same heifers will be highly valued in the marketplace.”

Griffith notes shorter supplies continue to tilt leverage from packers to feedlots, as evidenced by the gains the past couple of weeks.

“Cattle feeders have gained significant leverage over the packer due to a reduced number of animals coming off feed and reduced weights,” Griffith explains. “This has left packers in need of inventory to meet obligations. This may seem like unfamiliar territory to cattle feeders since it has been several years since they did hold considerable leverage. However, cattle feeders will maintain this leverage for the next couple of years as the cattle industry works to rebuild beef cow inventory. The question on most people’s mind is how quickly and to what level can cattle feeders raise prices. At the rate they are going, they have and may continue to exceed industry expectations.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow to moderate on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live sales were mostly $2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $162/cwt. and $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $162.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand with too few transactions to trend.

For the week, live sales were steady to $3 higher in Nebraska at $160 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $162. Dressed prices in both regions were $3 higher at $257.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.49 higher Friday afternoon at $281.04/cwt. Select was $3.25 higher at $265.89/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 627,000 head was 3,000 head fewer than the previous week and 43,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 4.4. million head was 86,000 head less (-1.9%). Estimated year to date beef production of 3.6 billion lbs. was 141 million pounds less (-3.7%).

Stronger cash fed cattle prices helped Live Cattle futures gain Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower to an average of 15¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher through Jly ‘24 and then mainly unchanged to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices managed to close mixed Friday after a volatile session pressured by the week’s reports of still-strong inflation and high bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 129 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 68 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.05 to $2.20 lower through the front six contracts.

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Total land in farms continued to decrease last year, down 1.9 million acres from the previous year at 893.4 million acres, according to USDA’s latest Farms and Land in Farms Summary.

One way USDA looks at land in farms is relative to categories of sales class. Producers in the sales class of $100,000 to $249,000 accounted for most of the decrease in land in farms last year — 1.62 million acres.

The average farm size for 2022 was 446 acres, up from 445 acres the previous year, according to the report. Average farm size increased only for those in the $1 million or more sales class category. Average farm size was unchanged or declined for all other sales class categories.

However, the number of farms increased for all sales classes except the $1,000-$9,999 and $10,000-$99,999 sales classes. The total number of farms in the United States was estimated to be 9,350 farms year over year at 2,002,700.

“In 2022, 30.0% of all farmland was operated by farms with less than $100,000 in sales, while 41.2% of all farmland was operated by farms with sales of $500,000 or more,” according to NASS analysts.

Last year, 50.8% of all farms had less than $10,000 in sales and 81.4% of all farms had less than $100,000 in sales. In 2022, 7.5% of all farms had sales of $500,000 or more.

Profit taking appeared to the order of the day in Cattle futures on Thursday, despite positive weekly beef exports.

Net 2023 U.S. beef export sales of 28,100 metric tons (MT) the week ending Feb. 9 were 72% more than the previous week and 34% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico, and Hong Kong.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ lower, except for 22¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ lower (40¢ to $1.10 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on very light demand through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few live trades reported in Nebraska at $160/cwt.

So far this week, live prices are steady to $2 higher at $159-$160 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices in both regions last week were $254.

In the Southern Plains last week, live prices were $160 in the Texas Panhandle and $160-$161 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.88 higher Thursday afternoon at $279.55/cwt. Select was $1.45 higher at $262.64/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with another gauge of higher inflation than expected.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7% in January, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0% for the 12 months ended January 2023. That was more than expected.

As well, initial weekly unemployment insurance claims came in less than expected at 194,000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 431 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 57 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 214 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 9¢ to 17¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA Agricultural Projections to 2032, released Wednesday, suggest some relief in feed costs.

“Corn prices are expected to fall steadily from a near-record peak of $6.80 per bushel in 2022/23 to $5.70 per bushel in the first year of the projection period,” according to USDA analysts. “Corn continues a downward trend through 2026/27 before leveling off at $4.30 per bushel through the remainder of the projection period.”

Similarly, USDA forecasts soybean prices to fall to $13.00 per bushel in the first year of the projection period, which would be $1 less than the 2022-2023 peak. Soybean prices continue to decline through the first half of the projection period and level at $10.30 per bushel during the second half.

“Wheat prices are expected to drop from a record $9.20 per bushel in 2022/23 to $8.00 in the first year of the projection period, still the second highest price on record,” USDA analysts say. “Prices continue to fall through 2026/27 before settling at $5.70 per bushel through 2032/33.”

In terms of global economic growth, USDA projects global real GDP growth to decrease in the short term due to higher price inflation and resulting tighter monetary policy. Global real GDP growth is projected to average 2.8% annually during the projection period.

“During the projection period, U.S. real GDP growth is projected at an annual average of 1.8%,” say USDA analysts. “The positive average projected for 2023–2032 continues beyond the initial recovery from COVID-19 but is lower due to the uncertainties ahead. The expected trend is for there to be lower long-term growth rates in the United States compared to previous decades.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales in Nebraska at $159/cwt. and a few in the western Corn Belt at $162. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Live prices last week were $160/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $160-$161 in Kansas, $157-$160 in Nebraska and $160 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $254.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.61 higher Wednesday afternoon at $275.67/cwt. Select was $2.41 higher at $261.19/cwt.

Weaker Corn futures helped Feeder Cattle futures gain marginally, closing an average of 36¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures continued sideways, closing narrowly mixed, from an average of 6¢ lower to an average of 7¢ higher,

Grain and Soybean futures weakened Wednesday with pressure including positive harvest weather in South America.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by strong retail sales.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were up 3.0% from the previous month, and up 6.4% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 110 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 33¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA Agricultural Projections to 2032, released Wednesday, suggest cattle prices will peak this year in the near term.

USDA projects Feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) to peak this year at $200.75/cwt., then decline to $174.53 in 2026. Forecast prices increase for the remainder of the projection period to $191.32 in 2032.

Projected fed steer prices (five-area direct weighted average) follow a similar pattern with a peak this year at $153.50, declining to $137.82 in 2026 and then increasing gradually to $148.73 in 2032.

“As producers respond to higher cattle prices, U.S. cattle inventories are expected to expand in 2025, and cattle prices are projected to decline through 2026,” USDA analysts explain. “For the remainder of the period, steer prices are expected to gradually rise reflecting strong global demand for U.S. beef and relatively tight supplies for the domestic market.”

That’s with the estimated beef cow inventory reaching the low point in 2024 at 28.7 million head and then growing gradually to 31.3 million head in 2032. The total cow inventory is forecast to ebb at 38.1 million head in 2023 and then grow gradually to 40.8 million head in 2032.

Beef production is expected to decline this year and next, reflecting tighter cattle supplies.

“Higher cattle prices in 2023 will likely incentivize heifer retention, after which modest herd growth is expected through the end of the projection period,” USDA analysts say. “Increasing slaughter weights will further support production gains as the herd expands. Beef production is expected to increase during the projection period, starting in 2025 at year-over-year rates that average almost 1.0%.”