WLI

Feeder Cattle futures closed higher Monday in anticipation of the USDA Cattle report (see below).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.36 higher (93¢ to $2.23 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from 33¢ down to 45¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $156/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $153-$156 in Nebraska and $152-$157 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $248.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.01 lower Tuesday afternoon at $266.09/cwt. Select was $1.40 higher at $252.92/cwt.

Corn futures closed mixed,  unchanged to down 4¢ through Sept. 23, then up 1¢ to 3¢.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly down 2¢.

Soybean futures closed mixed, up fractionally to 2¢ higher in spot March and May respectively, then mostly down 1¢ to 4¢.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with signs of continuing cooling inflation. The housing market saw prices drop 2.5% from June highs and unemployment costs rose but less than expected at the end of 2022.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 369 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 191 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 97¢ to $1.07 higher through the front six contracts.

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As expected, beef cattle numbers were significantly fewer at the beginning of this year compared to a year earlier, according to USDA’s Cattle report that came out Tuesday afternoon. As of Jan. 1, year over year:

The nation’s beef cow inventory of 28.92 million head was 1.06 million fewer (-3.5%). That is among the fewest recorded in the United States.

Beef cow-calf states with 5% to 7% year-over year declines included: Kansas (-7%); Kentucky (-7%); Nebraska (-5%); North Dakota (-6%); Oklahoma (-7%).

Beef replacement heifers of 5.16 million head were 317,800 head fewer, down 5.8%.

Cattle on feed of 14.16 million head were down 537, 000 head (-3.6%).

The calculated number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots of 25.27 million head was 722,900 fewer (-2.8%).

Total cattle and calves in the U.S. of 89.27 million head were 2.80 million head fewer (-3.04%).

Cattle futures gained Monday, supported by higher cash trade in the South at the end of last week, as well as likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s Cattle inventory report (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher (80¢ to $2.52 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $156/cwt., from $2 lower to $1 higher in Nebraska at $153-$156 and $1-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $152-$157.

Dressed prices were steady in Nebraska at $248 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $248.

The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price last week was near steady with the previous week on a live basis at $155.25/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was 50¢ lower at $247.72.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ higher Monday afternoon at $268.10/cwt. Select was 98¢ higher at $251.52/cwt.

Soybean futures led grains higher Monday, supported by recently more positive U.S. exports.

Soybean futures closed 21¢ to 25¢ higher through Aug ‘23, and then 10¢ to 17¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher through Mar ‘24 and then mostly 2¢ lower to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, pressured by tech stocks and perhaps positioning ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 52 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 227 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.67 to $1.78 lower through the front six contracts.

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The USDA Cattle report scheduled for release Tuesday afternoon will provide some insight to the drastic level of beef cow liquidation over the last year.

Depending on the analysts you follow, and how you run your own abacus, odds suggest Jan. 1 beef cow numbers will be at least 3.5% less year over year and perhaps as high as the 4% range.

Conservatively, if cow numbers are 3% less, that would mean 2.5 million fewer cows since the most recent peak.

Bottom line is that beef cow numbers at the beginning of this year were likely among the fewest, if not the fewest, ever recorded. If the beef cow inventory is under 29 million head, it will be only the third time in 60 years, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Likewise, heifers retained for replacement are expected to be significantly fewer.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Friday with support from weaker Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ higher, except for an average of 15¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Feb.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher through May ‘24 and then mostly 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 14¢ lower through Sep ‘23, and then mostly 3¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week dressed prices were steady in Nebraska at $248/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $248, where live prices were $1-$4 lower at $152-$157.

The previous week, live prices were $155 in the Southern Plains and Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 99¢ lower Friday afternoon at $267.76/cwt. Select was 94¢ lower at $250.54/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday with follow-through support from the previous day’s read on domestic economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 109 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.30 to $1.33 lower through the front six contracts.

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Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, says calf prices are expected to firm through February and into March.

“The primary driver of how quickly prices increase and to what degree prices increase will be determined by how quickly certain regions experience spring green up,” Griffith explains in his weekly market comments. “Many cattle producers in Tennessee are short on hay as are many other regions of the country. The inability to feed animals will keep a lid on prices…If there are signs of an early jump in forage this spring, then prices will escalate earlier and move higher. If the opposite is true, then calf prices will still increase but not at the same speed or reach the same level.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Dressed prices were steady in Nebraska at $248/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $248.

Last week, live prices were $155/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Nebraska, and $156-$158 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 47¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $268.75/cwt. Select was 32¢ lower at $251.48/cwt.

Cattle futures faltered Thursday with weaker early cash fed cattle trade and firmer Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 lower, except for 17¢ higher in expiring Jan.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ lower.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through the front three contracts, and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 12¢ to 16¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 13¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts, and then mostly 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Thursday, supported by more domestic economic growth than expected.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, after increasing 3.2% in the third quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in inventory investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a decrease in housing investment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 205 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 199 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 64¢ to 86¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to 53.8 — above growth neutral — in January from 50.1 the previous month. The index was below growth neutral the previous six months. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. 

“The Rural Mainstreet economy continues to experience improving, but slow, economic growth,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Almost 85% of bankers ranked rising input prices as the top economic challenge or threat to farmers in their area.”

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The region’s farmland price index climbed to 66.0 in January from December’s 65.4. This was the 28th straight month that the index registered above 50.0.

“Higher input costs are the only major problem on the near time horizon,” says James Brown, CEO of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa.

Cattle futures edged higher Wednesday with fundamental support and simmering ahead of cash direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 23¢ higher, except for 25¢ lower in spot Feb.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $155/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Nebraska, and $156-$158 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $248-$250.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.36 lower Wednesday afternoon at $268.28/cwt. Select was 59¢ lower at $251.80/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts, from 10¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Dec. 31 were 4% more than the previous month and 7% more than the previous year, according to the monthly Cold Storage report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Frozen pork supplies were up 1% from the prior month and up 16% from last year.

Combined, total red meat supplies in freezers were 2% more than the previous month and 11% more than last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 7% from the prior month and up 23% from a year earlier.