WLI

After retrenching in the previous session, Cattle futures mostly gained Wednesday with expectations of higher cash prices again this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 81¢ higher, except for 17¢ lower in waning spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 16¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $148/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-$236 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $260.86/cwt. Select was $1.25 higher at $228.60/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, weighed down by big tech stocks with lower quarterly earnings than expected from the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 228 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.71 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Economic conditions continue to deteriorate in rural areas a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, as measured by the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI).

The October RMI declined from 46.3 a month earlier to 44.2. It was the sixth decline in the past seven months, sinking below growth neutral for a fifth consecutive month. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession. Approximately, three of four bankers expect a recession to begin in 2023,” says Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The region’s farmland price index for October declined to 58.0 from September’s 61.1 but was above growth neutral for the 25th straight month.

The slowing economy, strong energy prices, higher borrowing costs and elevated agriculture input costs pushed the business confidence index down to 30.8 from 40.7 in September. “This is the lowest reading for the confidence index since May 2020,” said Goss.

Recent momentum in Cattle futures stalled Tuesday amid higher Corn futures, likely profit taking and apparently waiting to see if this week’s cash fed cattle trade supports another step higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 lower, except for 92¢ higher in waning spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ lower, except for 7¢ higher in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $148/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-$236 in the western Corn Belt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday. Support included lower bond yield rates and chatter that the Fed may see enough weakness in the economy to make future interest rate hikes less aggressive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 74¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Total pounds of beef in freezers Sept. 30 were 2% more than the previous month, 19% more than the same time last year and record large for the date, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report. 

Frozen pork supplies were slightly less than the previous month but 14% more than the previous year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 17% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up slightly from the previous month and up 10% from a year ago.

Cattle futures continued to climb Monday on higher cash fed cattle prices, stronger wholesale beef values and Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 higher (40¢ to $1.57 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $148/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-$236 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $4.21 higher Monday afternoon at $257.92/cwt. Select was $1.25 higher at $225.61/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 14¢ to 23¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices extended gain Monday. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 417 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 5¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Through the first week of October, female beef cattle slaughter was approaching 750,000 head more than last year, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). Beef cow slaughter was 336,000 head more and heifer slaughter was up 364,000 head.

“Given the pace of current slaughter, a reasonable estimate would conclude U.S. female slaughter will be over 800,000 head by the end of the year,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Using a simple regression analysis of data back to 1987, that would imply a Jan. 1 beef cow herd number down 4.8%, greater than the largest decline seen in the 2011-2015 time period. The difference has been the larger number of heifers moving through slaughter channels. It would suggest an unprecedented proportion of female slaughter in the last several decades relative to herd inventory.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $3 higher in the Southern Plains at $148/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $151-$152 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $150-$152. Dressed prices were $4 higher at $236.

Stronger cash prices and higher wholesale beef prices helped Cattle futures gain Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 79¢ higher, except for 30¢ lower in spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 54¢ higher

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 9¢ higher Friday afternoon at $253.71/cwt. Select was $2.28 higher at $224.36/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 673,000 head was 13,000 head more than the previous week. Total year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 27.37 million head was 433,000 head more (+1.6%) than the same period last year. Total year-to-date beef production of 22.56 billion lbs. was 3.2 million lbs. more (+1.4%).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through Aug ’23 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday led by bank stocks and perhaps some thoughts that peak inflation is near. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 748 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 86 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 244 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 54¢ to 66¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Markets will likely view the latest Cattle on Feed report — feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity — as at least neutral.

Placements in September of 2.08 million head were 3.8% less than the previous year. In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 44% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 19% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in September of 1.86 million head were 4.0% more year over year.

Cattle on Feed Oct. 1 of 11.45 million head were 1.0% less than the previous year.

Snug supplies and demand-based aggressive slaughter helped negotiated cash fed cattle prices pull ahead with more gusto this week.

Live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $148/cwt. on moderate trade and light to moderate demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at mostly $152 on moderate demand and trade. Dressed prices in Nebraska were $4 higher at $236.

There were some live sales in the western Corn Belt at $150 and $236 in the beef, but too few to trend. Live prices there Wednesday were $2 higher at $150. Dressed prices last week were $230-$232.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 23¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $253.62/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $222.08/cwt.

Cattle futures closed mixed, though, between resurgent Corn futures but stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 79¢ lower (52¢ to $1.02 lower), except for 35¢ higher in spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 22¢ lower in four contracts to an average 34¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 19¢ higher through Jly ‘23.and then mostly 9¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday amid mixed quarterly corporate earnings and rising bond yields. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 49¢ lower through the front six contracts, except for 43¢ higher in spot Nov.

******************************

Beef production in September was record large for the month at 2.39 billion lbs., according to the monthly Livestock Slaughter report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Year-over-year cattle slaughter was 4% more at 2.9 million head.

Commercial red meat production totaled 4.67 billion lbs. in September, up 2% from the same time last year.