WLI

Cattle futures eased mostly lower Friday, awaiting full development of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower, except for 57¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were mostly $5 higher at mainly $245/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher at $380-$382.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $244 and a few dressed trades at $380. Prices there the previous week were $240-$242 and $378, respectively.

Trade was inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices the previous week were mostly $245.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Friday afternoon at $364.47/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $363.42. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef was $4.86 lower and Select was $1.11 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 541,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.4 million head was 404,000 head fewer (-10.6%) than the same time last year. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.1 billion pounds was 285.1 million pounds less (-8.6%).

Book squaring and profit taking ahead of the market’s three-day weekend appeared to be the order of business for Grain and Soybean futures on Friday.  

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday, retaining most of the previous session’s losses but helped by a softer inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in January, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index increased 2.4% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 2¢ to 3¢  through the front six contracts.

******************************

The United States signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan last week, which removes non-tariff trade barriers to U.S. red meat exported to Taiwan. U.S. beef gains duty-free access, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

“Strong, science-based trade agreements are essential to adding value for U.S. cattle producers, and Taiwan has emerged as one of the strongest international markets for U.S. beef,” says NCBA President Gene Copenhaver. “Duty-free access improves competitiveness and provides long-term certainty for producers who depend on export markets to maximize the value of every animal. Foreign markets play a critical role in producer profitability with beef exports accounting for more than $415 per fed cattle processed in 2024.”

More specifically, Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation explains, “Taiwan is the fifth largest market for U.S. beef, with exports valued at about $650 million, and the U.S. is the largest supplier of beef to Taiwan. But there is still potential for further growth with the increased access for all U.S. beef products … The elimination of tariffs on U.S. beef will definitely improve our competitiveness.”

Cattle futures eased lower Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction and more bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 13¢ lower to an average of 23¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in one contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 lower Thursday afternoon at $364.84/cwt. Select was 45¢ higher at $363.03.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 15¢ higher with likely technical buying. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 12¢ higher, buoyed by positive trade talks with China.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with more investors reportedly concerned about how AI may take away from business rather than add.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 669 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 469 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.67 to $1.79 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

La Niña continues to weaken and is expected to dissipate by March, with a transitional phase most likely through spring and early summer, according to Matt Makens atmospheric scientist, who provided the weather outlook during the recent CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Nashville. “We’re watching a classic transition year unfold,” said. “Even as the ocean changes, the atmosphere typically takes four to eight weeks to respond, so weather impacts will lag.”

In the near term, drought risks remain elevated across the Southern U.S. and Central Plains, with a 70% chance of intensification, especially south of I-70 and west of I-35. Spring’s neutral setup may help moisture distribute more evenly, though lingering La Niña effects could still limit precipitation west of I-35.

Summer outcomes hinge on how quickly a potential El Niño develops, Makens explains. A fast forming El Niño could deepen drought in corn growing regions while increasing precipitation in the West, whereas slower development may support more balanced moisture. By fall, El Niño becomes increasingly likely, though global climate factors could still alter its typical impacts.

“El Niño isn’t a guarantee of rain for everyone,” Makens says. “Other global patterns can amplify or mute its influence, so close monitoring remains essential.”

Cattle futures rose Wednesday with expectations of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices again this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.08 higher ($3.45 higher near the front to $1.17 higher at the back). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.11 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 lower Wednesday afternoon at $365.92/cwt. Select was 32¢ lower at $362.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were firmer Wednesday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Wednesday despite a more bullish labor outlook than anticipated.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was a touch lower at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 15¢ in January to $37.17. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 36 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 88¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply last month, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index dropped 23 points month-to-month to a reading of 113. Increased short-term and long-term pessimism drove the decline. The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points to 109, while the Future Expectations Index fell 25 points to 115, the lowest level since September 2024.

The survey was conducted Jan. 12-16, coinciding with USDA’s release of the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“What stands out this month is the growing number of producers who report that higher operating-loan needs stem from carrying over unpaid debt from the previous year,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “That points to increasing financial pressure heading into the year ahead.”

Half of the farmers surveyed indicated that their operations were worse off than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, more producers expect conditions to worsen.

Producers’ broader outlook for the U.S. economy also softened.

When asked whether the U.S. is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 62% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the right direction, down from 75% month earlier.

Cattle futures eased lower Tuesday amid two-sided trade and waiting this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 21¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $367.55/cwt. Select was $2.45 lower at $362.90.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday in the wake of the latest WASDE report (see below).  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices wobbled on Tuesday, led by tech stocks and pressured by retail stocks with the latest data indicating flat consumer spending. Retail and food service sales in December were virtually unchanged month to month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The 2.4% increase year over year lags inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 136 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 14¢ to 22¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices for this year, in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to forecasts the previous month, and based on continued demand strength, the ERS increased prices $6 in the first quarter to $238/cwt., $4 in the second quarter to $238, $3 in the third quarter to $240 and $5 in the fourth quarter to $245. The projected annual average price increased $4 to $240.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS also increased projected beef production for the year by 185 million pounds (0.7%) to 25.7 billion pounds.

“Beef production is raised on higher slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights,” say ERS analysts. “The USDA’s January Cattle report estimated that the 2025 calf crop was lower than the previous year, but as of January 1, more cattle held outside feedlots were available to be placed during the first half of 2026.”

This year’s estimated beef production would be just 81 million pounds less (-0.3%) than last year.

Among other WASDE highlights …

Corn

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook was for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting sales and shipments to date. With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks were down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections were unchanged. The season-average soybean price was projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices were unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53¢ per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat was for unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports and slightly higher ending stocks. Domestic use was lowered on reduced food use as indicated by the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on Feb. 2. Ending stocks increased to 931 million bushels, 9% more than last year and the most since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remained at $4.90 per bushel.

Cattle futures mostly extended gains Monday, buoyed by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 68¢ higher, except for 47¢ lower and unchanged in the back two contracts.  

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 92¢ higher, except for $1.02 lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $5 higher in the Southern Plains at mostly $245/cwt., mainly steady in the Nebraska at $240 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $240-$242. Dressed delivered prices were steady with the top end of the previous week’s range at $378.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $1.87 higher at $241.31. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $1.84 higher at $378.00.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.57 lower Monday afternoon at $367.76/cwt. Select was 82¢ higher at $364.53.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher on Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 20 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 207 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 82¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

President Trump signed an executive order late last week to temporarily increase the tariff-rate quota for beef imported to the United States from Argentina (from 20,000 to 100,000 metric tons), in a stated effort to make domestic ground beef more affordable. However, it is unlikely to have much impact, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“Imports from Argentina were already exceeding the 20,000-ton limit. It’s not clear how much additional Argentine beef might actually be imported this year,” Peel says.  “Argentina consumes nearly three-quarters of beef production domestically. Of the roughly 24% of beef exported, exports to the U.S. are only about 7% of Argentine beef exports. Increased exports of beef to the U.S. will compete with domestic demand in Argentina, as well as exports to other markets. The impact in the U.S. is likely to be minimal. Beef imports from Argentina would only be about 4% of U.S. imports if the new quota is filled and mostly likely an increase in imports from Argentina will simply displace imports from another country, not changing the total much, if any.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.