WLI

Cattle futures gained traction from the recent headlines-driven decline, supported by steady to higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.61 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.45 higher, except for $1.17 lower in away May.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in Nebraska to limited on moderate demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $260/cwt., which is steady to $2 higher in Nebraska, $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle and steady to $4 higher in Kansas. Dressed delivered prices are $6-$8 higher in Nebraska at $408-$410. In the western Corn Belt last week, FOB live prices were mostly $260 and dressed delivered prices were $400-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $388.68/cwt. Select was $2.69 lower at $388.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower on profit taking. Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged to fractionally higher through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with primary support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 67 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 314 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 99¢ to $1.97 lower through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions held steady last week, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending May 10. Nationwide, 31% was rated as Good (27%) or Excellent (4%), compared to 30% the previous week and 36% the previous year. On the other end of the scale, 41% was in Poor (22%) or Very Poor condition (19%), which was the same as the previous week but 5% more than the same time last year.

Challenging winter wheat conditions continue, as indicated by reduced estimated production in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Nationwide, 40% of the winter wheat crop was in Poor 24% or Very Poor (16%) condition, led by Very Poor in Nebraska (37%) and Texas (29%). Conversely, 28% was ranked in Good (23%) or Excellent (5%) condition, which was 26% less than the same time last year.

Corn planting progress continued to be positive with 57% in the ground, compared to 59% last year and 52% for the five-year average.

Likewise, 49% of the soybean crop was planted, which was 4% more than a year earlier and 13% more than average.

Cattle futures continued lower Tuesday on wonderment about expected reduced  tariffs on beef imports.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.45 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.94 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $255-$260 in Kansas and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $402 in Nebraska and $400-$405 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower Monday afternoon at $390.73/cwt. Select was 22¢ lower at $391.27.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, buoyed by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 45¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ higher through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday. Pressure included a higher inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8% before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.8% in April, accounting for more than 40% of the monthly all items increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 185 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.21 to $4.19 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected five-area direct FOB live fed steer prices for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), based on recent data and tighter expected supplies. Compared to the previous month, prices were forecast $10 higher in the third and fourth quarters at $252/cwt. and $255, respectively. The projected annual average price increased by $8 to $249.66.

That was with beef production this year estimated 243 million pounds less  (-0.9%) than the previous month at 25.5 billion pounds. The total would be 456 million pounds less (-1.8%) than last year.

“Beef production was forecast lower, as expected herd rebuilding and increased heifer retention will limit the availability of fed cattle for slaughter,” ERS analysts say. “Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2027 is forecast above 2026 production levels as higher pork and poultry production more than offset lower beef production.”

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook was for reduced supply, total use and ending stocks with higher expected prices. The corn crop was projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6% from a year ago on declines to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be down 3.5 million. The yield projection of 183.0 bushels per acre was based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2% percent to 18.1 billion bushels. Stocks would represent 12.1% of use, down from 13% the prior year but above the average of the last five years.

The season-average farm price for corn was projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25¢ from the previous month.

Soybeans

The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks from the prior marketing year. The soybean crop was projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million from last year’s crop, reflecting trend yield and higher harvested area. Along with higher beginning stocks, supplies were 188 million bushels more than the 2025/26 marketing year.

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 were projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million from the revised 2025/26 forecast. The 2026/27 U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $11.40 per bushel, compared with $10.40 in 2025/26. The soybean meal price was forecast at $310 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price was forecast at 70¢ per pound, up 7¢.

Wheat

The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. wheat was for reduced supplies and exports, lower domestic use and smaller stocks compared with 2025/26. Wheat supplies were forecast down from last year with reduced production more than offsetting larger beginning stocks. All wheat production was projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year on reduced harvested area and yield. The all-wheat yield, projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, was 5.8 bushels lower than last year’s record yield. The first survey-based production forecast for 2026/27 winter wheat was down 25% from last year to 1,048 million bushels, primarily on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks were 18% less than last year at 762 million bushels.

The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price of $6.50 per bushel was $1.50 more than last year, based on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and a higher projected U.S. corn price.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.43 lower, except for $1.05 higher in spot May.

Week to week on Friday, Cattle futures gave back much of the previous week’s gains with Live Cattle an average of $4.04 lower and Feeder Cattle futures down an average of $8.11. Late-week pressure included chatter and algorithm fodder about the DOJ investigation into beef packers.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $256/cwt., $1-$5 higher in Kansas at $255-$260, $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at mostly $260 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $260. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 higher in Nebraska at mainly $402 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $400-$403.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.45 higher Friday afternoon at $388.39/cwt. Select was 59¢ higher at $385.01.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 527,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 34,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 9.7 million head was 1 million head fewer (-9.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 8.7 billion pounds was 641.4 million pounds less (-6.9%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, buoyed by optimism about next week’s trade talks with China and perhaps some early positioning of next Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 17¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher. Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Week to week on Friday, Corn futures were an average of 7¢ lower through the front six contracts.       

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks and positive jobs data.

Total non-farm payroll employment grew by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls in April rose by 6¢ to $37.41. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 440 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 61¢ to $1.61 higher through the front six contracts. Those contracts were an average of $3.06 lower week to week on Friday.

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Wholesale beef values have yet to jump with the seasonal spark expected this time of year.

“There tends to be a push for steak cuts as Memorial Day weekend approaches, but the rib and loin primal values are not indicating restaurants, grocers or food service chasing product to stock the meat counter,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “This may mean nothing at all since beef prices remain elevated, but it could be a cause for concern as consumers are probably spending a higher percentage of their discretionary dollar on fuel instead of food. Cattle and beef markets are not immune to outside influences, and this may be what the market is experiencing.”

With that said, domestic consumer beef demand continues historically high. For instance, the Livestock Marketing Information (LMIC) retail all fresh beef demand index for the first quarter was up 10 points year over year at 147, the highest for the series going back to 2000.

“As the beef demand index reached a high for the series, the first-quarter all fresh retail beef prices were a record at $9.55 per pound, up $1.25 per pound (+15%) from the first quarter of 2025,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

For broader perspective, the first-quarter LMIC pork demand index was 1 point lower year over year at 93, the lowest level since 2017. The average first-quarter retail pork price was reported at $4.91 per pound, fractionally less than the prior year.

“Beef demand strengthened during the first quarter of 2026 while pork demand softened, but elevated fuel prices during the second quarter could threaten beef and pork demand over the summer grilling season,” LMIC analysts say.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday but off session lows with no obvious driver.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.25 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.87 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $256/cwt., $3-$6 higher in Nebraska at mostly $258-$260 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $255-$260. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 higher in Nebraska at mainly $402 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $400-$403.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.68 lower Thursday afternoon at $386.94/cwt. Select was $5.21 lower at $384.42.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower on Thursday, led by reduced weather premium in hard red winter wheat.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 19¢ to 22¢ lower. Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices turned lower Thursday, as Crude Oil prices gained on resurgent tensions between the U.S. and Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 313 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 10¢ lower to 53¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Narrow, sometimes negative, daily Choice-Select spreads in recent weeks prompt plenty of pondering. Undoubtedly, supply is part of the story with so little Select available relative to Choice and higher grading carcasses.

On the demand side, Charley Martinez, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee says , “Given the recent rise in fuel costs, income for other items, and weekly spending at stores has likely taken a hit, which tends to push consumers toward more price-sensitive food choices and away from higher-priced beef items that rely on Choice-level marbling. As a result, downstream buyers have placed less emphasis on quality premiums, compressing the spread even when supply conditions might otherwise support it.”

At the same time, Martinez explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, “Higher fuel costs raise transportation and operating expenses throughout the beef supply chain, limiting packers’ and retailers’ willingness to pay up for higher grades. Together, possibly weaker consumer demand for premium beef and rising fuel-related costs help explain why the 2026 spread remains subdued, signaling diminished incentives for quality premiums relative to periods like 2025 when consumer demand conditions were stronger.”

Cattle futures lost early steam Wednesday but closed narrowly mixed to higher, supported by bullish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 21¢ lower to an average of 37¢ higher. 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 69¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $252-$257/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $255 elsewhere. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $400.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.72 lower Wednesday afternoon at $389.62/cwt. Select was $2.61 lower at $389.63.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower on Wednesday as Crude Oil prices pulled back.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 9¢ lower. Corn futures were 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 17¢ lower through Near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday, as Crude Oil prices retreated and chatter increased about a possible end to the U.S.-Iran war. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 612 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 105 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 512 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $4.95 to $6.77 lower through the front six contracts.

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Record-high beef variety meat values led U.S. beef exports in March, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef variety meat exports totaled 29,062 metric tons (mt) for the month, up 24% from a year earlier and the largest since 2017. Variety meat export value increased 50% to $135.6 million.

However, total March beef exports of 97,731 mt, were 11% less than a year ago, largely due to the ongoing lockout by China. Total beef export value fell 8% to $844.7 million. Export value in March equated to $456.56 per head of fed slaughter.

Through the first quarter, beef and beef variety meat exports totaled 275,355 mt, down 11% from a year ago, while value fell 7% to $2.35 million. Excluding China from these results, exports were 3% higher than a year ago in volume and increased 9% in value. The January-March average export value per head of fed slaughter was 2% more year over year at $431.66.

“While China has now been absent for more than year, the U.S. industry is making strides in other markets,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The supply situation makes it difficult to grow export volumes, but exports are commanding strong prices. Expanding beef variety meat demand is especially critical, as this makes such a key contribution to the value of every animal.”

Pork exports totaled 285,567 mt in March, up 6% from a year ago, the largest in five years and the third largest on record. Export value increased 4% to $803.2 million, the second highest on record, trailing only April 2021.