WLI

Cattle futures rose Monday, helped along by last week’s slightly stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 87¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 37¢ higher., except for 7¢ lower in near Dec.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $142, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $143 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $143-$145. Dressed prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $226-$227 and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $226.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher through Monday afternoon at $252.45/cwt. Select was 76¢ lower at $225.89/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 13¢ to 19¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher at the end of a volatile session Monday. Investors are awaiting the Fed’s next interest rate decision this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 197 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 86 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed 44¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Budgets currently look favorable for winter stocker grazing if forage is available, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

For instance, Peel calculates the value of gain for adding 300 lbs. to a 475-lb. steer at $1.29/lb., using current Oklahoma feeder prices. He notes that price also reflects current feedlot cost of gain for steers in the Southern Plains of $1.25-$1.30/lb.

“Stocker budgets are driven by the overall level of cattle prices and the relationship between purchase prices for lightweight stockers and the expected price of heavy feeder cattle later,” Peel explains. “The difference in the purchase price and selling price of stocker cattle is the rollback that determines the gross value of gain for adding weight to feeder cattle. The stocker price rollback is the mirror image of the cost of gain for feedlots because feeder markets reflect whether it is cheaper to put weight on feeder cattle in forage-based stocker programs before they arrive at the feedlot or with grain-based rations after placement in the feedlot.” He adds the $7 increase between nearby and Mar Feeder Cattle contracts adds more value.

Unfortunately, at least for producers depending on wheat pasture in the Southern Plains, grazing prospects appear limited due to persistent dryness and drought.

“I traveled across much of western Oklahoma last week and did see several planted fields and even a couple with wheat emerged. In many cases the wheat is being “dusted in”, planted in dry soil, hoping that rain will be forthcoming to germinate the wheat,” Peel says. “Whether wheat is planted with enough moisture to germinate or is waiting for rain to emerge, the dry soil profile means that additional timely rains will be needed to sustain a wheat stand. The forecast for the next week or more is for unseasonably (maybe record!) warm temperatures with little chance of precipitation. Wheat grazing prospects look dim and risky this fall.”

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 667,000 head, which was 63,000 more than the previous holiday-shortened week. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 24.0 million head was 328,000 (+1.4%) more than last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.8 billion lbs. was 226.9 million lbs. more (+1.2%).

Cattle futures meandered Friday amid the heavy beef production, high Corn price outlook and recently lower wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 23¢ lower (5¢ to 35¢ lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 60¢ lower to 33¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $142/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $143 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $143-$144. Dressed prices were steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $226-$227. Dressed prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $225-$230.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 6¢ higher through Friday afternoon at $252.40/cwt. Select was $3.30 lower at $226.65/cwt.

Corn futures closed mixed from fractionally lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed an average of 2¢ lower through Sept. ‘23 and then unchanged to fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices lost more ground Friday amid growing global recession fears.

Preliminary quarterly results from FedEx late the previous day underscored the worries.

First-quarter FedEx results were adversely impacted by global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter, according to the company’s update. FedEx Express results were particularly impacted by macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe.

As a result of the preliminary first quarter financial performance and expectations for a continued volatile operating environment, FedEx withdrew its fiscal year 2023 earnings forecast issued in June.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 139 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 104 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 7¢ to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised expected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, compared to the previous month. Forecast prices were $2 higher in the third quarter at $173/cwt. and $4 higher in the fourth quarter to $177. The 2022 annual average prices increased $1.50 to $166.10. Projected prices for the first and second quarters next year increased $3 and $4, respectively to $172 and $190. The forecast 2023 average annual price increased $1.75 to $201.

“Calf prices are raised for 2022 and early 2023 as expected placements in feedlots reach deeper into tight supplies outside feedlots … Based on recent NASS Cattle on Feed reports, average placement weights are declining, suggesting fewer yearlings are available for placement. This has likely improved demand for calves weighing over 700 lbs.,” say ERS analysts. “The price for feeder steers 750-800 lbs. at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards averaged $174.18/cwt. in August, up nearly $5 from last month and $18 from last year. The most recent available price from Sept. 12 reports sales of yearling feeder steers at $180.35, a jump of more than $6 from the previously reported week.”

ERS analysts explain more feedlot placements in July than anticipated, as well as   weekly reported sticker and feeder cattle sales in August supports raising anticipated placements in the third quarter of this year.

“This has further resulted in raising expected fed cattle marketings in early 2023 and subsequently raising projected first-quarter 2023 beef production,” ERS analysts say. “As the drought pushes more calves into feedlots at a quicker pace than normal, this will likely pull feeder cattle forward next year, decreasing expected marketings in late 2023.”

Steady to higher cash prices helped lift Live Cattle futures an average of 64¢ higher (22¢ to $1.27 higher) on Thursday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, live prices are $1 higher at $142/cwt.

Trade was slow on moderate demand in Nebraska with live prices steady to $1 higher at $143. Dressed prices are steady to $1 higher at $226-$227.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was limited on light demand. So far this week, live prices are steady to $2 lower at $143-$144. Dressed prices last week were $225-$230.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.13 lower Thursday afternoon at $252.34/cwt. Select was 16¢ lower at $229.95/cwt.

Feeder Cattle futures wobbled Thursday with more strength through the back half of the board. They closed mixed, from an average of 34¢ lower to an average of 41¢ higher.

That was despite softer grain futures with Corn following wheat and closing 4¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ lower through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday amid mixed economic news and lingering worries about slowing economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 167 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $3.38 to $3.60 lower through the front six contracts, pressured by demand concerns.

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Freight railroads and unions reached a tentative agreement late to avert a worker strike.

According to a statement from the Association of American Railroads, the new contracts would provide rail employees a 24% wage increase during the five-year period from 2020 through 2024, including an immediate payout on average of $11,000 upon ratification by the unions.

“This tentative agreement provides for the highest general wage increases over the life of the agreement in over 45 years,” according to a joint statement by the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET), a Division of the Rail Conference of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, and the Transportation Division of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers (SMART-TD).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 52¢ higher Wednesday as Corn Futures retreated 8¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ’23 and then mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 18¢ to 23¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ lower except for unchanged to an average of 12¢ higher in three contracts.

The looming railroad strike continues to add uncertainty to the mix.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to limited on light demand through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few dressed trades in Nebraska at $226-$227/cwt. and a few live trades in the western Corn Belt at $143, but too few to trend.

Last week, live prices were $141/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $142-$143 in Nebraska and $143-$146 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $226 in Nebraska and $225-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $3.19 lower through Wednesday afternoon at $253.47/cwt. Select was $3.47 lower at $230.11/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices firmed Wednesday following the previous session’s steep selloff

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 86 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 70¢ to $1.17 higher through the front six contracts.

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American Foods Group (AFG), LLC broke ground this week on the a beef processing facility in Warren County, Missouri.

The family-owned company plans to process 2,400 cattle per day and intends to be fully operational by the end of 2024.

AFG is investing $800 million in the new 775,000 sq. ft. facility. The company plans to create more than 1,300 new jobs in the region with an annual payroll of approximately $80 million. Currently, AFG employs more than 4,500 across the U.S.

Sharply lower outside markets pressured by higher inflation than expected compounded the previous day’s lower corn yield estimates, weighing on Cattle futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.88 lower ($1.10 to $2.60 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 77¢ lower.

That was with Corn futures retreating on the same macroeconomic news.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower through Sep ‘23, then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 9¢ lower through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $141/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $142-$143 in Nebraska and $143-$146 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $226 in Nebraska and $225-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.28 lower through Tuesday afternoon at $256.66/cwt. Select was $2.18 lower at $233.58/cwt.

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As alluded to, Major U.S. financial indices plunged Tuesday on a steamier inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 8.3% before seasonal adjustment. The all-items less food and energy index rose 6.3% over the last 12 months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,276 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 177 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 632 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 47¢ to 78¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) underscored elevated heifer and cow slaughter by increasing expected beef production this year to 26.33 billion lbs. That’s 70 million lbs. more than the previous month’s projection, with higher anticipated slaughter in the second half of the year offset slightly by lower expected third-quarter carcass weights.

“While increased cow and heifer slaughter totals are contributing to higher beef production this year, the longer-run implications are tighter supplies,” explains Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, in a recent issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “The higher slaughter totals imply fewer cows and fewer replacement heifers to produce calves. The current WASDE projection for 2023 beef production would be about 6% below the current 2022 projection. Price expectations are reflecting these tighter supplies.”

WASDE analysts estimated this year’s annual weighted average five-area direct fed steer price 70¢ higher at $142.80/cwt. Prices are forecast to be $143 in the third quarter and $147 in the fourth quarter. Next year’s projected average price was unchanged at $154.