WLI

Live Cattle firmed, closing narrowly mixed, from an average of 38¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher. However, contra-seasonally lackluster wholesale beef prices and the dwindling premium in deferred contracts continued to cast a gloomy pall.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ lower (52¢ to $1.72 lower) amid extremely light trade.

Corn futures closed mixed, mostly 4¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 12¢ to 15¢ higher. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $138, $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $140-$142 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $142. Dressed prices are $4 lower in Nebraska at $226.

Last week, live prices were $140-$144 in Colorado. Dressed prices were $227-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.23 higher Thursday afternoon at $261.70/cwt. Select was 4¢ lower at $246.06.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 23,300 metric tons for the week ending May 12 were 18% less than the previous week but 35% more than the previous four-week average, according to the U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Canada.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices softened further Thursday with more news of major retailers struggling with earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 236 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 29 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.30 to $2.85 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

“Drought conditions and higher operating costs have encouraged the rapid culling of beef cows in first-quarter 2022 to levels not seen in decades,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “Also, based on USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reports for actual weekly slaughter under federal inspection, April 2022 showed the highest number of beef cows slaughtered for the month since 1996. There were over 5 million more beef cows on January 1 of 1996 than January 1 of this year. Subsequently, the outlook weakens for the potential calf crops in 2022 and 2023, further reducing potential cattle placements year over year in late 2022 and early 2023.”

According to ERS, the pastureland condition index at the beginning of this year’s grazing season was the lowest since the series began in 1995, reflecting two years of drought.

“As more calves are placed in feedlots sooner than normally expected due to drought conditions, marketings in 2022 are pulled forward into the second and third quarters, partially offsetting an expected decline in marketings in late 2022,” say ERS analysts.

However, these analysts note the expected increase in cow and bull slaughter more than offsets the net decline in fed cattle marketings this year. ERS projects beef production at 27.8 billion lbs. this year and 6.8% less next year at 26.0 billion lbs. That would be the least production since 2016.

Cattle futures trended lower pressured by bearish outside markets. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ lower. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 lower.

Grain futures were also pressured by pessimistic outside markets.  Corn futures closed mostly 10¢ to 20¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 26¢ lower. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in Nebraska at $140/cwt., which was $2 less than earlier in the week. Elsewhere, trade was limited on light demand through Wednesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend.

So far this week, live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $138, $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $140-$142 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $142. Dressed prices are $4 lower in Nebraska at $226.

Last week, live prices were $140-$144 in Colorado. Dressed prices were $227-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value (p.m.): 1¢ lower at $260.47/cwt. Select was $2.17 lower at $246.02.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices plunged Wednesday Tuesday, in the wake of mega-retailers Walmart and Target posting weaker than expected earnings as inflation weighs.

“Bottom-line results were unexpected and reflect the unusual environment. U.S. inflation levels, particularly in food and fuel, created more pressure on margin mix and operating costs than we expected,” according to Doug McMillon, Walmart president and CEO.

Likewise, Brian Cornell, Target Corp, chairman and chief executive officer explains, “Throughout the quarter, we faced unexpectedly high costs, driven by a number of factors, resulting in profitability that came in well below our expectations, and well below where we expect to operate over time.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,164 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 165 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 566 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.59 to $2.83 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projects cattle prices next year to increase for a second consecutive year and approach the record-high levels of 2014, when the U.S. cattle inventory was the least since 1952.

“With a smaller 2022 calf crop and higher anticipated beef cow slaughter in 2022, calf supplies are expected to contract in 2023,” say ERS analysts, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “The average annual feeder steer price is expected to climb to $198.00/cwt. in 2023, $35 (+22%) than the projection for 2022.”

So far this year, ERS analysts point out the faster pace of placements and slower than expected fed cattle marketing resulted in the largest on-feed numbers recorded for the month of April.

“This has likely kept feeder calf prices restrained, given late-2022 fed cattle prices implied by the futures market for late 2022,” say ERS analysts. “The third-quarter 2022 price forecast is raised $1, but the fourth-quarter 2022 price is lowered $2, for an annual forecast of $162.80/cwt., 20¢ lower than last month’s forecast.”

Specifically, ERS projects feeder steers prices (basis 750-800 lbs. in Oklahoma City) at $159 in the second quarter, $166 in the third quarter and $170 in the fourth quarter. Price for the first quarter of next year is projected at $168.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were light to moderate in the Southern Plains through Tuesday afternoon with live prices $2 lower at $138/cwt.

In Nebraska, there were a few dressed sales at $226-$227 on slow trade and light demand, but too few to trend. Last week live prices were $144 and dressed prices were $230.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live prices in the western Corn Belt Monday were $2-$3 lower at $142. Dressed prices last week were $227-$230. Live prices in Colorado last week were $140-$144.

Softer cash prices pressured Feeder Cattle an average of 75¢ lower despite the tiny respite in Corn futures.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mostly higher, though with KC Wheat up another 15¢ to 20¢. 

Corn futures closed mixed, mainly 4¢ lower to 2¢ higher, starting with new-crop contracts.

Soybean futures closed mostly 17¢ to 20¢ higher. 

Recently higher wholesale beef prices helped cap losses in Live Cattle futures, which closed an average of 44¢ lower, except for 27¢ higher in away Aug.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 17¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $260.48/cwt. Select was $2.52 higher at $248.19.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, with investors apparently supported by supposed bottom picking and emboldened by retail data. U.S. retail sales grew by 0.9% in April, according to the monthly Advance Sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 431 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 80 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 321 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.80 to $2.19 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Despite bearing the brunt of pandemic dining room lockdowns and restrictions, independent restaurants with one to two locations still represent 53% of total restaurants in the U.S., according to The NPD Group (NPD). Based on NPD’s Fall 2021 ReCount® restaurant census, independent restaurant locations declined by 8% or 28,399 units in 2020 but grew by 1% or 2,893 units by late 2021. Independent locations are growing in seven of the nine Census divisions and large urban areas like Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Seattle-Tacoma.

Independent restaurant spending with broadline foodservice distributors also points toward recovery.

Independent operators increased cases of food and supplies ordered from leading broadline distributors by 27% in the 12 months ending March 2022 compared to the same period a year ago. That was 5% more than the pre-pandemic level in the period ending March 2019. 

“The pandemic lockdowns and restrictions were particularly tough for Independent restaurant operators since they have fewer resources and capital than chains to withstand tougher times,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor. “Some independents didn’t make it, but many did, and they are thriving and contributing to the overall vibrancy of the U.S. foodservice market.” 

Consumer online and physical visits to independent restaurants increased by 12% in the 12 months ending March compared to the same period a year ago and are now 7% below the pre-pandemic level in the 12 months ending March 2019, according to NPD.

During the same period, visits to independent full-service restaurants — representing about 63% of all independent restaurants — were up 19% compared to the year ending March 2021, resulting in a 14% decline from the year ending March 2019 before the pandemic.

Quick-service independent restaurant traffic increased by 5% in the 12 months ending March 2022 compared to a year ago and was up 1% from the pre-pandemic level in the 12 months ending March 2019.

India’s weekend announcement that it would ban wheat exports shoved nearby KC Wheat limit up 70¢ Monday, leading other grains higher.

Corn futures closed 16¢ to 28¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then mostly 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Aug ‘23 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

Surging feed costs pressured Feeder Cattle futures an average of 66¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ higher, buoyed by oversold conditions, the cash premium and recently higher wholesale beef prices.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.36 higher Monday afternoon at $260.31/cwt. Select was $1.77 higher at $245.67.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Monday afternoon with prices steady to $3 lower than last week at $142/cwt. Dressed prices there last week were $227-$230.

Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, live prices were $140 in the Southern Plains, $140-$144 in Colorado and $144 in Nebraska where dressed prices were $227-$230.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed flat to lower Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 26 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 142 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.33 to $3.71 higher.

******************************

“The bleak prospects for pasture and hay production, combined with continued diminishment of hay stocks, suggests that significant and severe impacts on cattle herds are ahead as summer approaches,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Pointing to USDA’s recent Crop production report, Peel explains hay stocks May 1 were 6.9% less year over year and 15.1% less than the average for 2012-2021. He adds hay stocks were 17.7% less than a year earlier in the 17 Plains and Western states.

“In all of these 17 western states, drought continues widespread,” Peel says. “More than 50% of the U.S. beef cow herd is directly threatened by drought. Across the country more than 50% of pastures and range are in poor to very poor condition. That majority of this pasture and range is in these western states.”

Regionally, Peel says hay stocks in the West are 36.6% less than 2020 levels, following two years of drought and are 27.1% less than the 10-year average.

In the Southern Plains region of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, he explains May 1 hay stocks were down 12.0% year over year and down 25.3% from the 2012-2021 average.

“Colorado and Nebraska are unique among the 17 western states,” Peel says. “Colorado had hay stocks up 152.2% year over year and up 30.3% over the 10-year average. Nebraska had May 1 hay stocks up 25.0% year over year and 14.1% above the 2012-2021 average. Despite the improvement in hay stocks for these two states, drought conditions persist and pasture and range conditions are diminished in 2022.”

According to the latest USDA Crop Progress report, as of May 15, 22% of the nation’s pasture and range was classified as Good (20%) or Excellent (2%) compared to 25% last year, and 49% was rated Poor (24%) or Very Poor (25%) versus 43% the same week a year earlier.

Grain futures were mixed Friday, continuing to adjust to the previous day’s bullish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 32¢ higher through Sep ‘23 and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher, except for 63¢ higher in spot May. 

Softer Corn prices helped Feeder Cattle futures regain a little lost ground Friday, closing an average of 84¢ higher (20¢ to $1.50 higher), except for 40¢ lower in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower, except for 42¢ higher in spot Jun, challenged by sluggish wholesale beef prices.

However, Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.75 higher Friday afternoon at $258.95/cwt. Select was 46¢ lower at $243.90. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.51 higher but Select was $1.16 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive with very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $140/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $144 in Nebraska and $144-$145 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $227-$230.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was the same as the prior week at 657,000 head. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 12.3 million head was 71,000 head more than the previous year. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.28 billion lbs. was 91.1 million lbs. more than the same time last year.

******************************

At least for the day, investors on Wall Street seemed to think it was time to expand ownership in stocks, pushing major U.S. financial indices sharply higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 466 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 93 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 434 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.85 to $4.36 higher through the front six contracts, apparently buoyed by snug supplies and chatter about Shanghai reopening.

******************************

Although western pasture and range conditions showed year-over-year improvement the first two week of this year’s growing season, nationwide conditions declined, say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“More than 50% of U.S. pasture and range is rated Poor to Very Poor compared to just under 50% last year. Western pastures are rated under 40% Poor and Very poor compared to more than 50% a year ago,” say LMIC analysts. “Great Plains and Southern Plains states are showing more severe conditions at this time. Great Plains pasture and range conditions are currently rated 60-55% Poor and Very Poor in the first two weeks of the (rating) year, needing additional feed to support normal stocking densities. The five-year average indicates that the start of year typically only shows about a 10% rating of Poor and Very Poor.”

LMIC analysts note the starkest deterioration is in the Southern Plains, where 57% and 50% of pasture and ranges was classified as Poor or Very Poor the first two weeks, compared to about 30% at the same time last year and about 15% for the five-year average.