WLI

Cattle futures ran out of steam Wednesday, although the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates continue to paint a positive fundamental picture (see below).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in spot Mar.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 90¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in the back contract.

Cattle futures were helped by lower Grain and Soybean futures as traders apparently were satisfied with the level of risk premium.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live trade was steady with the previous day and $2 lower than last week at $138/cwt. Dressed trade was $4-$5 lower at $220.

Trade was limited on light demand in Kansas with live prices at $138; steady with the previous day and $2 lower than last week.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive with very light demand and too few transactions to trend. Live prices in the Texas Panhandle so far this week are $2 lower at $138. Trade was unestablished in the western Corn Belt where live prices last week were $142 and dressed prices were $224-$225.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher, buoyed by lower Crude Oil futures and cooling commodity prices, at least for the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 653 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 107 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 460 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CME) closed $12.19 to $15.00 lower in the front six contracts.

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“Fed cattle prices are raised on firm packer demand and declining inventories of fed cattle,” say analyst with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

ERS projects the annual five-area direct fed steer price the year $17.10 higher than last year at $139.50/cwt. That’s $2.00 more than the previous month’s projection.

Forecast prices are $140 in the first quarter, $139 in the second, $136 in the third and $142 in the fourth quarter.

Estimated beef production this year of 27.57 billion lbs. would be 367 million lbs. less (-1.3%) than last year. “The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month on higher fed and non-fed cattle slaughter,” according to ERS.

Estimated total red meat and poultry production this year of 106.47 billion lbs. would be 324 million lbs. less (-0.3%) than the prior year.

“Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally,” say ERS analysts. “The March WASDE represents an initial assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this action.”

Volatility continued Tuesday, but Cattle futures managed to extend gains amid two-sided trading, supported by an initial drop in Corn futures and eventually higher outside markets.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average $1.07 higher (65¢ to $1.40 higher), except for 57¢ lower in spot Mar.

Live Cattle futures closed average 79¢ higher (17¢ higher at the back to $1.57 higher toward the front), except for unchanged in away Jun.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live prices were $2 lower in a light test at $138/cwt.

Trade was limited on light demand in Nebraska. Live price so far this week are $2 lower at $138. Dressed prices last week were $224-$225.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. Live prices last week were $142 and dressed prices were $224-$225.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.27 lower Tuesday afternoon at $252.44/cwt. Select was $5.28 lower at $244.94.

Wheat futures tapped the brakes Tuesday, helping Corn to a narrowly mixed close.

Corn futures closed mixed, mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 30¢ higher through Jan ‘23 and then mostly 1¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, after trading higher earlier, in another volatile session driven by Russia’s war on Ukraine, worries about the economic impact and inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 35 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CME) were up another $1.91 to $4.30 through the front six contracts with spot Mar closing at 123.70.

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Lighter-weight feedlot placements in recent months, and the incentive to place more at light weights, will likely widen the Choice-Select spread this summer, according to Brenda Boetel, Extension livestock economist at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls.

In the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets (ICM) from the Livestock Information Center, she explains the Choice-Select spread is typically narrowest January to March as the demand for Choice middle meats is the least of the year, while Choice supply is usually most plentiful. The spread usually widens heading into summer as the Choice supply declines, due to harvesting lighter-weight cattle, while grilling demand for Choice middle meats increases.

Although the highest percentage of cattle placed on feed at weights lighter than 700 lbs. usually occurs in November, Elliott Dennis, Extension livestock economist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln pointed out in the previous ICM that feedlots want to place lighter cattle currently, amid higher feed prices, due to cattle performance and ultimately total feed consumed. He ran the numbers and concluded, “…assuming Average Daily Gain and Average Feed Conversion are constant, the only way to reduce total feed costs would be to reduce harvest weights.” And cattle placed at lighter weights tend to finish at lighter weights.

“This has two broad industry implications for the quantity and quality of beef production,” Dennis explained. “First, total quantity of beef production will likely decrease, putting upward pressure on boxed beef and thus retail beef prices in deferred months. Second, smaller carcass weights are associated with more cattle grading USDA Select. As more cattle grade USDA Select, the Choice-Select

spread will widen providing incentives to feed cattle longer to heavier harvest weights.”

The Choice-Select spread was almost $4.50/cwt. wider than the 2019-2021 average when the year began, according to Boetel.

“Seasonally, the Choice-Select spread will widen until late June/early July due to the supply/demand considerations for Choice and for Select beef,” Boetel explains. “However, given the higher percentage of lightweight cattle placed on feed since November, as compared to the 2019-2021 average lightweight percentage placed on feed, the Choice-Select spread will likely widen more than average. How wide the spread becomes is dependent on corn prices when cattle are placed, the percentage of cattle grading Choice, total amount of beef production, as well as beef demand.

“If we hold all those factors affecting Choice-Select spread at a constant level and allow only the percentage of beef grading Choice to change, the impact of a 1% change in cattle grading Choice, can have almost a 9% change in the spread. This means that since the average 2016-2020 spread was as wide as $22.45 in June, a decrease of 1% in Choice graded beef could widen that spread by another $2, providing some incentives to feed cattle longer and to heavier weights.”

Cattle futures reversed direction to the upside Monday, despite sharply lower outside markets and grain market strength tied to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Positioning and bottom-picking likely explain much of the move, while underscoring the unaltered, positive supply fundamentals.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average $1.86 higher ($1.12 to $2.55 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed average $1.44 higher (50¢ to $2.15 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were at $140/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Nebraska; $142 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $224-$225.

Wholesale beef prices added support with Choice Boxed beef cutout value 38¢ higher Monday afternoon at $254.71/cwt. and  Select $1.81 higher at $250.22.

Wheat futures continued to lead Corn futures mostly higher Monday. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 39¢ to 85¢ higher Monday, as rationing continues due to the war in Eastern Europe

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 18¢ higher, except for 3¢ and 7¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday, pressured by Russia’s war on Ukraine and worries about the impact on domestic and global economic growth.

The Down Jones Industrial Average closed 797 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 127 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 482 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CME) were up another $2.96 to $3.72 through the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides perspective about the market impacts stemming from Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in his weekly market comments.

“Both Ukraine and Russia are major grain producing and exporting countries. With the reality of current disruptions of grain movement from the Black Sea region and the uncertainty of what could happen, crop prices have soared, pushing high feed prices much higher,” Peel explains. “Just a few more weeks will determine whether crop planting in the Ukraine will be possible. All crop markets are higher, but the uncertainty is focused on the near term, pushing old crop futures higher relative to new crop contracts in the fall.”

Peel also points out Russia is a major oil producing and oil exporting country. Potential disruptions to global energy markets are contributing to sharply higher energy prices.

“Russia is also a major producer and exporter of fertilizer. These will add to inflationary pressures for production costs and are a threat to beef demand as higher gas prices directly impact consumers,” he says.

Then, there’s the domestic drought.

“In just a few weeks, the drought will begin to impact forage production and producers will face rapidly worsening production conditions and additional management and marketing challenges,” Peel says. “The supply fundamentals of the industry will continue to be supportive with cattle numbers decreasing and beef production declining this year. Beef demand has been strong up to this point, but clearly, there are more concerns about demand and input prices going forward. A war situation like this has no analog in recent history and there is no way to anticipate when or even if the situation will stabilize in the foreseeable future.”

Concerns about less corn and wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia, due to the war, continued to underpin futures prices Friday. As time wears on, there is also concern about fertilizer exports from the region.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ higher, except for 10¢ to 29¢ higher from near Jly to next Mar.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

Cattle futures sagged beneath the weight of escalating feed prices Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.47 lower (90¢ at the back to $3.27 lower toward the front).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.53 lower (80¢ to $2.62 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $140 and $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $143. Dressed prices were $2-$3 lower at $224-$225.

The average five-area direct fed steer price was $2.64 lower week to week on Thursday at $140.76/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was $2.40 lower at $224.62.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ lower Friday afternoon at $254.33/cwt. Select was 62¢ higher at $248.41.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 658,000 was 11,000 head more than the previous week but 8,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 5.83 million head is just 17,000 head fewer than the same time last year.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, amid continued pressure from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and despite a more positive jobs report than expected.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings for private non-farm employees was static at $31.58.

The Down Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 34 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 224 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CMW) were up a staggering $7.31 to $8.01 through the front six contracts.

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Fundamental changes are transforming the beef supply chain from a just-in-time delivery model toward a just-in-case approach. Managing the costs associated with these changes may result in a shift of the historical live cattle and retail beef price ratio, according to a recent RaboResearch report.

“While a cattle producer has little or no control over what happens in the beef supply chain post-harvest, it will be important for livestock producers to be aware of changes occurring throughout the supply chain,” says report author, Don Close, senior animal protein analyst with Rabo AgriFinance. “Any changes, any inventory building, any additional controls and inspections could have a direct impact on the total cost of beef to the end user, which could change historical norms for live-to-wholesale and live-to-retail price spreads.”

Meat processors, distributors and retailers are striving to build supply resiliency into the beef supply chain and reduce the risk of another round of empty grocery store shelves in the future, according the report, which explores these major drivers:

1. Automation in packing plants to increase the efficiency of their labor force
2. Packaging that extends shelf life, is more durable for grocery delivery and meets sustainability expectations
3. Government and investor-led sustainability demands, which may require more documentation and verification methods throughout the supply chain
4. The transportation system’s technology and infrastructure overhaul that reduces carbon emissions and the risk for backlogs

The area of change with the greatest potential direct impact on cattle producers is meatpacking plants’ embedding more automation into their facilities, according to Rabo AgriFinance analysts. The report notes that the initial introduction of advanced technology will not serve as a replacement for labor, but will serve to make labor more efficient. However, the transformation toward greater automation will require a workforce with different skill sets or extensive retraining.

“The challenge of finding and retaining a ready workforce has increased labor costs to the tipping point where investments into technology, robotics and software advancements become economical,” Close explains. “Anything that de-risks packers from becoming a dam that slows the flow of market-ready cattle is a win for cattle producers.”

After a day’s reprieve, wheat soared higher, boosting front-month Corn and Soybean futures. K.C. Wheat was 75¢ higher in the front four contracts.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 22¢ higher in the front three contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 11¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher in the front two contracts and then mostly 8¢ to 11¢ lower.

Stouter feed prices took Cattle futures down another peg.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.68 lower, erasing much of the headway made in the previous session.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower (12¢ to $1.75 lower), except for 15¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend in any region, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $140 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $142. Dressed prices are $2-$3 lower at $224-$225.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 lower Thursday afternoon at $254.35/cwt. Select was $3.55 lower at $247.79.

U.S. beef export sales continue strong, according to USDA’s U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending Feb. 24. Net sales of 23,800 metric tons for 2022 were 64% more than the previous week and 23% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan and Canada.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, as investors appeared skittish about Friday’s monthly employment report, as well as Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The Down Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 214 points.

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“With both revenues and costs rising, cattle producers must adjust cattle production and marketing to maximize profits,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Economists model this decision mathematically resulting in the rule that profit maximization is the point at which marginal revenues equal marginal costs. This balance occurs when the value of the last unit produced equals the additional cost of producing that last unit. Of course, cattle producers don’t use mathematical models to maximize profits but should use marginal thinking to adjust to changing market conditions. Marginal decision-making means that production is adjusted at the margin, i.e. with minor modifications and tweaks to production systems rather than major changes.”

Peel explains the unique circumstances of each individual operation will determine whether the net impact of higher revenues and higher costs poses the need to cut back slightly on production, hold steady, or increase production. 

“There are short and long-run considerations and risks to be considered as well,” Peel says. “Care should be taken that short term efforts to manage higher costs should not, for example, jeopardize herd health by cutting vaccination programs or skimping on nutrition and risking decreased future herd productivity. “Markets are extremely volatile now and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Producers should consider the use of risk management to protect revenues and potentially use forward pricing or other means to manage input costs.”