WLI

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, and on the week, buoyed by steady to stronger early negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.98 higher, with gains likely capped by wonderment about when the U.S. border will re-open to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

For the week, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.99 higher, except for 37¢ lower in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.33 higher on the week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend at the time, there were some FOB live trades at $250/cwt. in the North. The previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $245 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt and dressed delivered prices were mainly $385.

Trade was inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $246, the same as in Kansas the previous week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 19¢ lower Friday afternoon at $380.90/cwt. Select was 23¢ lower at $381.34. For the week, Choice was $7.14 lower and Select was $7.03 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 512,000 head was 21,000 head fewer than the previous week and 52,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 7.6 million head was 846,000 head fewer (-10%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 6.8 billion pounds was 551.8 million pounds less (-7.5%).

Grain futures were lower Friday.  

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower, with traders likely removing weather premium on the more optimistic moisture outlook.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower, pressured by the larger global ending stocks revealed in the recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, lower crude oil prices and the improved weather outlook for planting. Corn futures closed 11’7¢ lower through the front six contracts for the week. Those contracts were an average of 25¢ lower over the past two weeks.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 10¢ higher through Aug ’27, supported by apparent growing optimism concerning U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for next month.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, amid uncertainty about the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and related opening of the Strait of Hormuz.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 269 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 80 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.30 lower to 79¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Domestic retail beef prices increased year over year in March, while retail chicken and pork prices softened, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“The all-fresh retail beef price was $9.55 per pound in March, softening from $9.64 per pound in February but an increase of $1.12 per pound (+13%) from last year,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Ground beef was reported at $6.86 per pound in March, up $0.73 per pound (+12%) from last year. Rounds increased $1.06 per pound (+12%) from last year to $9.61 per pound in March but fell slightly by $0.49 per pound from the prior month. Steaks were reported at $12.73 per pound in March and on par with the prior month but increased $1.75 per pound compared to the prior year.”

On the other side of the fence, the March retail pork price of $4.87 per pounds was 2% less year over year and the lowest level since February 2025, according to LMIC. The March retail composite broiler price was also 2% less year over year at $2.41.

Cattle futures eased higher Wednesday with stronger outside markets and growing expectations for steady to stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.68 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $245-$246/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $246 in Kansas and $245 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $385.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.43 higher Thursday afternoon at $381.09/cwt. Select was 70¢ lower at $381.57.

Grain and Soybeans futures were mixed Thursday.  

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower pressured by domestic rain chances and higher projected world ending stocks in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. However, Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Thursday, supported by the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 275 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 187 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $33¢ to $4.20 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices unchanged in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Prices were projected at $242/cwt. in the third quarter, $245 in the fourth quarter and at $242 for the annual average.

USDA projected beef production for this year at 25.8 billion pounds, which was 20 million pounds less than the previous month’s estimate. The total would be 211 million pounds less (-0.8%) than last year.

“Beef production is reduced as lower steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of the year is partially offset by higher cow slaughter in the first two quarters and heavier dressed weights throughout the year,” according to ERS analysts.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook was unchanged relative to last month. However, the season-average corn price received by producers was raised 5¢ to $4.15 per bushel based on reported prices to date.

Soybeans

The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2025/26 included higher crush, lower exports, and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean ending stocks were unchanged at 350 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 was forecast 10¢ higher at $10.30 per bushel. The soybean meal price increased $10 to $310 per short ton, and the soybean oil price rose 4¢ to 59¢ per pound.

Wheat

The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat was for slightly higher supplies, marginally lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Ending stocks were raised to 938 million bu., 10% more than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price increased 5¢ per bushel to $5.00 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

Cattle futures rose cautiously on Wednesday, helped along by falling oil prices and higher outside markets tied to the announced ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 85¢ higher, except for an average of 8¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.38 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $245-$246/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $246 in Kansas $245 in the North at $. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $385.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.08 lower Wednesday afternoon at $379.66/cwt. Select was $4.06 lower at $382.27.

Grain futures were lower on the cease-fire news and less weather premium for wheat.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 12¢ to 14¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday on news of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,325 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 165 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 617 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.22 to $16.51 lower through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $7-$8 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $245-$246/cwt., mostly $8 higher in Kansas at mainly $246 and $10 higher in the North at $245. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $13 higher at mainly $385.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.30 lower Tuesday afternoon at $382.74/cwt. Select was $2.04 lower at $386.33.

Cattle futures pulled back Tuesday with pressure from iffy outside markets, declining wholesale beef values and likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.88 lower.

Corn and Soybeans trended lower Tuesday on increased risk aversion based on President Trump’s escalating threats against Iran.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Corn futures were 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday after pressure during most of the session tied to wonderment about a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 85 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 21 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ higher to $1.15 lower through the front six contracts.

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Longer-term optimism helped boost agricultural producer sentiment in March, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 11 points from the previous month to 127. The Futures Expectations Index rose 14 points but remains lower year over year. The Current Conditions Index increased 6 points. The survey was conducted March 16-20.

“While producers are feeling more optimistic about the future, there’s still a noticeable gap between short-term challenges and long-term confidence,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Longer-term optimism is supported by stronger expectations for farmland values and the broader economy, though livestock producers remain notably more optimistic than crop producers.”

Producers reported mixed financial conditions in March, with 18% indicating their operations were better off than a year ago. Expectations for the year ahead continue to be cautiously optimistic, with 20% of respondents anticipating improved financial performance, compared with 18% expecting worse financial performance over the next 12 months. The Farm Capital Investment Index edged up 3 points to 53, but plans to expand machinery purchases remain limited, with only 4% of producers planning increases.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, however, FOB live prices were mostly $245/cwt., which was $7 higher in the Southern Plains and $10 higher in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $13 higher at mainly $385.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 533,000 head was 10,000 head more than the previous week but 53,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.1 million head was 796,000 head fewer (-10.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date production of 6.3 billion pounds was 521.4 million pounds less (-7.6%).

Higher cash fed cattle prices came in the face of sluggish wholesale beef values. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 lower Friday afternoon at $387.78/cwt. Select was $1.51 lower at $386.19. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.19 lower and Select was $3.68 lower.

Futures markets were closed Friday, in observance of Good Friday. For the week, though, Cattle futures were sharply higher.

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $7.92 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $17.30 higher. During the same period, Corn futures closed 13’3¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Equity markets were also closed Friday.

Although major U.S. financial indices gained on the week, uncertainty related to the U.S. war with Iran and sharply higher nearby crude oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) closed an average of $8.45 higher in the front three contracts week to week on Thursday and then an average of $4.41 lower in the next three contracts.

An economic bright spot heading into this week was a more positive labor outlook than expected. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 9¢ to $37.38. Average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5% over the last 12 months.

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U.S. beef exports totaled 85,066 metric tons (mt) in February, which was 13% less year over year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Value fell 10% to $722.7 million. Much of the shortfall stemmed from China’s lockout of U.S. beef. Exports were also below last year to Korea, Japan and Canada. However, exports increased year-over-year to Mexico, Taiwan, the Caribbean and South America, while demand was steady in the Middle East and Central America. Excluding China, February exports were 4% higher in value and just 1% below last year’s volume.

Exports of beef variety meats were a bright spot. The 24,081 mt of beef variety meat in February were 12% more than a year earlier, while the value of these shipments soared 40% to $106 million.

“Beef variety meat exports continue to trend higher, especially on the value side, and that makes such an important contribution to the value of every animal,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Where U.S. beef has access, muscle cut demand has held up well and provides a great complement to our robust domestic market. But for beef variety meats, export markets are really the whole ball game, so it’s great to see these products achieve broad-based growth.”

Beef export value equated to $422.87 per head of fed slaughter in February, down 2% from a year ago but the highest in 11 months. The January-February per-head average was $418.83, up 5% from a year earlier.

February U.S. pork exports totaled 242,511 mt, up 1% from a year ago, with export value edging 1% higher to $678.8 million.