WLI

There were too few negotiated cash fed cattle transactions to trend in any major cattle feeding region through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, amid anemic trade, live prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $126/cwt. and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $125-$126. Dressed trade in Nebraska is $2-$5 lower at $200-$203.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $337.92/cwt. Select was $2.60 lower at $304.97.

Cattle futures continued to sag lower Thursday amid sluggish interest ahead of the long holiday weekend, declining wholesale beef values and the lackluster packing pace. Feeder Cattle led the charge lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.42 lower ($1.65 to $3.00).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.38 lower ($1.05 to $1.60).

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher through new-crop contracts, then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher through new-crop contracts, then mostly unchanged to fractionally higher

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Thursday with the S&P 500 hitting another record. Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims the week ending Aug. 28 were 340,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. That’s the lowest level since March 14, 2020. The number was also more positive than the trade expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 22 points.

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USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on Thursday to solicit comments and information regarding the labeling of meat and poultry products made using cultured cells derived from animals under FSIS jurisdiction. FSIS will use these comments to inform future regulatory requirements for the labeling of such food products.

In 2019, USDA and FDA announced a formal agreement to jointly oversee the production of human food products made using animal cell culture technology and derived from the cells of livestock and poultry to ensure that such products brought to market are safe, unadulterated and truthfully labeled. Under the agreement, FDA will oversee cell collection, growth, and differentiation of cells. FDA will transfer oversight at the cell harvest stage to FSIS. FSIS will then oversee the cell harvest, processing, packaging, and labeling of products. FDA and FSIS also agreed to develop joint principles for the labeling of products made using cell culture technology under their respective labeling jurisdictions. Seafood, other than Siluriformes fish, falls under FDA’s jurisdiction, whereas meat, including Siluriformes fish, and poultry are under FSIS’ jurisdiction.

Other than new labeling regulations concerning this product, FSIS does not intend to issue any other new food safety regulations for the cell-cultured food products under its jurisdiction. According to FSIS, “Current FSIS regulations requiring sanitation and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point systems are immediately applicable and sufficient to ensure the safety of products cultured from the cells of livestock and poultry.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all major regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. A few dressed sales in Nebraska traded at $203/cwt.

Last week, live prices were at $122-$123/cwt. in the Southern Plains at $123/cwt. Live and dressed sales were at $128 and $202-$208, respectively, in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

The Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Wednesday afternoon at $338.45/cwt. Select was $4.46 lower at $307.57.

Likely short covering helped Cattle futures regain some recently lost ground Wednesday. Further erosion in grain futures, tied to Hurricane Ida impacts, also helped Feeder Cattle futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 higher (30¢ to $1.53), except for 7¢ lower in spot Sep.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 43¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Grain futures continued to fall Wednesday beneath the weight of export shipping disruptions wrought by Hurricane Ida.

Corn futures closed 10¢ to 18¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 21¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly 6¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday after an ADP Research Institute report showed companies added fewer jobs than anticipated in August. However, manufacturing grew at a faster pace than forecast even as global supply chains continue to be bottlenecked.

Private sector employment increased by 374,000 jobs from July to August, according to the August ADP National Employment Report.

“Our data, which represents all workers on a company’s payroll, has highlighted a downshift in the labor market recovery. We have seen a decline in new hires, following significant job growth from the first half of the year,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Despite the slowdown, job gains are approaching 4 million this year, yet still 7 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 50 points. 

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As mentioned previously in Cattle Current, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) began publishing two new reports in August, based on Livestock Mandatory Reporting and aimed at bolstering market transparency.

The National Weekly Direct Slaughter Cattle-Formulated Base and Forward Contract Base Purchases report provides more detail about foundational prices used in cattle market formulas, grids and contracts. The base prices are published in the morning and afternoon each day, as is an overall summary. Those prices are then aggregated into a weekly report.

Matthew Diersen, a risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University weighs in with some of his initial observations, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“The weekly formulated base shows the formula base price across gender, general quality level, and delivery type. For example, there is now a head count and price range for the base price for formula priced steers, delivered dressed, grading 65-80% Choice,” Diersen explains. “The average net price is there too, thus any major skew in the data would be easier to infer than in the past. The main averages are also broken out by state or region. It is all informative and overwhelming. However, knowing the base you are dealing with as a buyer and as a seller should mean better signals about the value of quality.”

The other new report, the National Weekly Cattle Net Price Distribution report shows at what price and volume levels trade occurred across the weekly weighted average price for each purchase type.

Diersen points out average net prices were available previously and were most useful for monitoring forward net prices over time relative to the negotiated and formula prices. If many cattle were forward contracted during a period of higher expected prices, and prices subsequently fell, then the forward net would be much higher than the negotiated. The opposite could also happen.

The new report provides volumes in $2 increments from the average price levels.

“The more transparent base prices and more complete net prices seem to fill in more of the gap between the average value of average quality cattle and fair values for higher quality cattle being traded today,” Diersen says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were at $122-$123/cwt. in the Southern Plains at $123/cwt. Live and dressed sales were at $128 and $202-$208, respectively, in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Cattle futures declined Tuesday with follow-through pressure tied to concerns about recently slower packer production, post Labor Day demand and declining wholesale beef prices. Month-end position squaring was also a factor.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower (7¢ to $1.20), except for 7¢ higher in May.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ lower (10¢ to $1.43 lower). 

Through midday today, though, Cattle futures were rebounding some, helped along by further declines in Grain futures.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $342.11/cwt. Select was 52¢ lower at $312.03/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures closed lower with continued pressure from uncertainty surrounding the impact of Hurricane Ida.

Corn futures closed down mostly 5¢ to 8¢.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 10¢ lower through new-crop contracts, and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Tuesday, pressured in part by weaker consumer confidence. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined to 113.8 in August from 125.1 in July.

“Consumer confidence retreated in August to its lowest level since February 2021 (95.2),” says Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Concerns about the Delta variant—and, to a lesser degree, rising gas and food prices—resulted in a less favorable view of current economic conditions and short-term growth prospects. Spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all cooled somewhat; however, the percentage of consumers intending to take a vacation in the next six months continued to climb. While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 7 points.

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How many beef cows are going to town due to drought is a popular current wonderment, one with no easy answer, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“We do know is that beef cow slaughter is up 8.7% year over year through mid-August. If we assume the current level of year-over-year increase continues for the remainder of the year, it implies an annual beef cow slaughter of 3.55 million head. That would be a net culling rate of 11.4%, the highest beef herd culling rate since 2011,” Peel says. “The average culling rate the past two years, since the cyclical peak in 2019, has been 10.25%. Over the past 35 years, across cycles of expansion and liquidation, the average herd culling rate has been 9.65% annually.

“However, because the drought started so early in the year (carried over from last year), it is likely that beef cow slaughter was shifted earlier in the year. Producers likely have already culled cows that would have been culled later in the year anyway. I doubt that the 8.7% year-over-year beef cow slaughter rate will persist for the remainder of the year. Nevertheless, the drought continues unabated and cow slaughter rates will likely remain strong.”

Further, Peel says heifer retention levels remain unclear.

 “The January Cattle report showed that beef replacement heifers were 18.7% of the cow herd, a level that would support stable herd inventories,” Peel explains. “The total number of beef replacement heifers (which includes heifer calves and coming first calf heifers) and the subset of heifers calving in 2021 were both fractionally higher year over year in the January numbers. No doubt, producers in drought areas have had to adjust replacement heifer numbers along with cows. Some heifer calves that were indicated as replacements in January likely were shifted into feedlots. It is not clear how many.”

Heifer slaughter is 1.4% higher so far this year, but Peel points out last year’s slaughter levels were skewed by Covid disruptions.

“Finally, there is the question of how producers not in drought areas have responded in 2021,” Peel says. “Forage conditions have been good in some regions and it is not clear if producers may be holding more cows and heifers to offset some of the drought region impacts. In short, we don’t know what would have happened in the absence of the drought and we don’t know for sure how the remainder of the year will finish. After playing with lots of numbers and assumptions, my best guess at this point is that the drought has added one-half to one percent of additional beef herd liquidation this year.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were at $122-$123/cwt. in the Southern Plains at $123/cwt. Live and dressed sales were at $128 and $202-$208, respectively, in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Lower Corn futures helped boost Feeder Cattle futures Monday. They closed an average of 62¢ higher (10¢ to $1.75), except for spot Sep, down 60¢.

Recent sluggishness in the pace of packer buying continued to pressure Live Cattle futures again Monday. They closed an average of 57¢ lower (18¢ to $1.75). 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.56 lower Monday afternoon at $342.78/cwt. Select was $2.97 lower at $312.55/cwt.

Front-month Corn and Soybean futures fell hard with barge delivery uncertainty stemming from Hurricane Ida.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 17¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 54¢ lower in the front seven contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, with tech stocks pushing the S&P 500 to its 12th all-time high in August. The after-effects of Hurricane Ida pushed gasoline higher but hurt insurers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points lower. The S&P 500 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 136 points. 

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Logic and current calf prices suggest the nation’s calf crop may be less than what USDA estimated in the semiannual Cattle report released last month, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“Steer calf prices in the Southern Plains have been robust in 2021. Calves weighing 500-600 lbs. have averaged between 6% and 16% higher from June through mid-August. The calf market is incredibly hot, given the higher cost of feed,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Reports of droughts and liquidation would have implied early weaning was a given in 2021 but the data has shown little signs that is happening to a large degree.”

For instance, they point to the most recent monthly Cattle on Feed report, which pegged 15% fewer July placements weighing less than 700 lbs., compared to the previous year.

“High feed costs should drive calf prices lower, reducing the incentive to place lighter weight cattle into feedlots. Drought affected areas should have started early weaning and shipped more small animals to feedlots,” say LMIC analysts. “Given the limited forage and high hay costs, it would seem likely that more calves would be moving at these prices that are substantially higher than a year ago. These incongruent signals point towards a smaller calf crop (July 1 estimate). That would explain both the higher prices and limited number of placements seen in July. August might show greater movement of smaller feeders, and the timing may be slower than initially thought.”

Despite the lack of sustained follow-through support from the most recent Cattle on Feed report, volatile outside markets and an apparent top in wholesale beef values, cash cattle and futures mainly gained last week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 higher (7¢ to $1.45 higher) week to week on Friday, except for $2.27 lower in almost-spent spot Aug.

On the cash side of the fence, negotiated fed cattle prices last week, were $1-$2 higher on a live basis in the Southern Plains at $123/cwt. However, the anemic pace of trade meant there was  no established trend in the North. Live prices the previous week were at $125-$127 in Nebraska and at $127 in the westerner Corn Belt. Dressed trade the previous week was at $200 in Nebraska and at $200-$205 in the western Corn Belt.

Sluggish trade pressured Live Cattle futures on Friday. Part of that stemmed from reports of mechanical problems at various plants last week.

Through Thursday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported 33,363 head traded direct in the five-area regions, compared to 60,342 at the same time the previous week and 65,386 head a year earlier.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 52¢ lower through the front four contracts (5¢ lower to $1.27 lower in spot Aug) and then an average of 28¢ higher.

Overall, though, recently expanding open interest provided support, as does the reality of improving supply-side fundamentals.

As Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University pointed out in his weekly market comments,

“August represents the sixth consecutive monthly decline in feedlot inventories from the February peak, a decrease of 1.032 million head or 8.5% over the six months. In the previous five years, he says the average feedlot inventory decline from the spring high to summer low has been 6.2%.” 

Moreover, Peel notes lighter year-over-year carcass weights also provide more indication that feedlots are getting more current. He adds lower carcass weights also reflect the impact and incentives stemming from sharply higher feedlot cost of gain, which should help hold carcass weights in check.

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“Auction calf and stocker prices have moved counter-seasonally higher in July-August, while feeder cattle markets, which typically increase through the summer, have shown a strong seasonal price increase,” Peel says.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ higher on Friday (15¢ higher toward the front to $2.40 higher at the back). Week to week they closed an average of 88¢ higher, except for 85¢ lower in new spot Sep. That was with Corn futures closing an average of 16.4¢ higher through the front six contracts.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $3.60 higher week to week on Thursday at $159.39.      

In his weekly market comments, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee explains stronger prices suggested by Feeder Cattle futures are helping keep cash prices higher for lighter weight calves than would be normally expected this time of year.

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Wholesale beef values appeared to top last week with Labor Day purchases mostly in the books.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ higher week to week on Friday at $345.34/cwt. Select was $3.01 lower at $315.52.

However, Griffith points out beef in cold storage at the end of July was the least since November of 2014 when slaughter was light and beef prices were elevated.

“Strong beef prices in the current market are again what is reducing the quantity of beef in cold storage,” Griffith says. “Generally, 91% or more of the beef in cold storage is boneless beef, which is primarily made up of grinding beef. As is evident in wholesale beef prices, beef demand remains strong and continues to support higher prices. This strong demand and strong prices will likely continue to result in beef in cold storage remaining below year-ago levels. However, beef in cold storage will seasonally increase throughout the remainder of the year as cattle weights increase and more animals enter the slaughter mix. The big question is how long can wholesale beef prices remain at such strong levels. The answer is not clear, but prices are not expected to collapse in the near future.”

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

“The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test,” explained Powell. “We have said that we will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level until the economy reaches conditions consistent with maximum employment, and inflation has reached 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time. We have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment, and time will tell whether we have reached 2% inflation on a sustainable basis.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 39 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 183 points.

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Consumer prices for food surged in July, compared to the previous year but overall year-to-date prices remain closer to the 20-year average.

Consumer at-home food prices were 2.6% higher year over year in July, according to the Change in Food Price Indexes from USDA’s Economic Research Service. At-home meat prices were 5.9% higher — beef and veal prices were 6.5% more, pork prices were up 7.8% and poultry prices were 5.3% higher. Prices for food away from home were up 4.6% year over year.

Year to date, at-home food prices were up 1.9% — beef and veal prices were 4.2% more, pork prices were up 4.4% and poultry prices were 2.6% higher. Prices for food away from home were up 3.1% year over year.

The forecast is for at-home prices to be up an average 2.5% to 3.5% this year — beef and veal prices are projected 4.0% to 4.5% higher, pork prices are forecast 5.0% to 6.0% higher and poultry prices are projected 3.0% to 4.0% higher. Prices for food away from home are projected to 3.5% to 4.5% higher.

For perspective, the 20-year average annual price change for at-home food prices is 2.0% — 4.4% for beef and veal prices, 2.2% for pork prices and 2.1% for poultry prices. The annual average change for food away from home is 2.8%.