WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued at lower money for the week with live sales in the Texas Panhandle on Thursday down $5-$7 at $93-$97/cwt.

Cattle futures closed mainly higher, with support likely including lower corn prices and positive export news.

Weekly net U.S. beef export sales as of June 18 were 24,400 metric tons (mt), which were 21% more than the previous week and 52% more than the prior four-week average, according to the weekly U.S. Export Sales report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Hong Kong.

Other than unchanged to an average of 15¢ lower in three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 49¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.43 lower Thursday afternoon at $208.26/cwt. Select was $1.76 lower at $199.93.

The average dressed steer weight for the week ending June 13 was 896 lbs., which was 4 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 47 lbs. heavier than the same week a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight was 824 lbs., which was the same as a week earlier, but 37 lbs. heavier than the prior year.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through May ’21 and then mostly 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower through Sep ’21 and then 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday after a volatile session. Primary support seemed to be the rollback of some regulations for big banks, despite the somber outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Consumption growth, in particular, has been downgraded for most economies, reflecting the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity,” according to that organization’s most recent quarterly World Economic Outlook. “The projections of weaker private consumption reflect a combination of a large adverse aggregate demand shock from social distancing and lockdowns, as well as a rise in precautionary savings. Moreover, investment is expected to be subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid high uncertainty. Policy support partially offsets the deterioration in private domestic demand.”

The IMF projects global economic growth this year to be -4.9%, which is 1.9% more negative than its April outlook.

Outlook for economic growth in advanced economies is -8.0%, also 1.9% more negative than April projections. IMF also projects growth for the U.S. this year at -8.0%. Next year, GDP in advanced economies is projected at +4.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 107 points higher.

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“The calculated number of cattle on feed longer than 120 days is 5.1 million compared to 4.2 million a year ago,” says David Anderson, Extension Livestock Economist at Texas A&M University, referring to last week’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. “Most of that increase in over 120 days on feed are cattle that have been on feed even longer as evidenced by the number of cattle on feed over 150 days. But, cattle on feed between 90 and 120 days totaled about 1.65 million versus 1.79 million last year. So, there remains more adjustments to come to work through the impacts of corona virus in the cattle markets.”

However, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets, Anderson explains the recent report hints at more normalcy returning to the industry.

For instance, he points out marketings in May were 27.5% less than the prior year, but there were two less business days.

“As May progressed, packing constraints loosened and daily slaughter moved closer to year-ago speeds. June 2020 has 22 slaughter days compared to only 20 in June 2019, so the next report’s marketings will likely show the dual impact of improving slaughter speeds and 10% more workdays in the month,” Anderson says.

Likewise, May feedlot placements (feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity) were 1.3% less year over year, after being more than 20% less the previous two months.

“May is typically a larger month for placements due to cattle coming off wheat pasture and other small winter grains,” Anderson explains. “Feeder cattle sales did start to pick up as May went on, as cattle previously held back had to move. Some drought conditions likely moved some feeders, and some opportunities to favorably place occurred.”

Except for in the Texas Panhandle, trendable negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued on Wednesday, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live sales were mostly $5 lower in Kansas at mostly $97/cwt. They were $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $95-$98 and $1-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $98. Dressed trade for the week is $3-$6 lower at mostly $156.

Cattle feeders offered 1,221 head in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange Auction. Of those, 276 head—four lots from Kansas and Nebraska—sold for a weighted average price of $96.43/cwt. for delivery at 1-17 days.

Choice steers and heifers sold $2.75-$3.00 lower at the fat auction in Tama, IA, where 184 Choice 2-4 steers weighed an average of 1,376 lbs. and brought an average price of $100.95.

At Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota, slaughter steers and heifers sold $4-$6 lower. There were 372 Choice 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,429 lbs. and bringing an average of $95.86.

Cattle futures tottered on Wednesday as outside markets eroded, but retained the lion’s share of gains made in the previous session.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 29¢ lower through the front three contracts to an average of 33¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.12 lower Wednesday afternoon at $209.69/cwt. Select was $1.88 lower at $201.69.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices dove South on Wednesday, with investors apparently spooked by spiking coronavirus cases in some states and what that could mean to reopening the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 710 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 80 points lower. The NASDAQ closed 222 points lower.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers May 31 were down 13% from the previous month but up 2% from last year, according to the most recent USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 24% less than the previous month and down 26% from a year earlier. Stocks of pork bellies were down 27% from last month and down 8% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 18% less than the previous month and 13% less than a year earlier.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 5% from the previous month and down 4% from a year ago.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued lower Tuesday, with dressed trade in Nebraska mostly $3-$7 lower than last week at $155/cwt.

Even so, Cattle futures found some spark, helped along by outside markets.

Except for 87¢ lower in spot Jun and 17¢ lower at the back, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 90¢ higher (37¢ to $2.07 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.25 lower Tuesday afternoon at $211.81/cwt. Select was 73¢ lower at $203.57.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ’21 and then mostly fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by by tech stocks once again, and despite the growing number of COVID-19 cases.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 74 points higher.

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So far, major restaurant chain transactions continue to improve, despite the recent spikes in COVID-19 cases, according to the NPD Group (NPD).

For the week ending June 14, total major restaurant chain transactions were 12% less than the same week a year earlier, which represented a 1% improvement compared to the previous week.

More specifically, quick service chain transactions were 11% less year over year and 2% more positive than the previous week. Full service chain transactions were 26% less than a year earlier but improved 12% week to week.

“The only major variable in play with a case surge at the moment would be erosion in consumer willingness to dine out,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor. “There are three main variables that will influence continued restaurant recovery: reopening of on-premise dining and expanding allowed capacity; the willingness of consumers to dine out and feel safe and confident in doing so; and the economic wellbeing of the consumer. Thus far, the evidence in restaurant transactional improvement confirms that dining rooms are opening, and there is consumer demand to fill opened restaurants.”

Although too few to trend, there were a few early live sales in the Texas Panhandle on Monday at $95/cwt. There were a few dressed trades in Nebraska at $152-$155.

Cattle futures closed narrowly lower Monday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 22¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 55¢ lower, (7¢ lower at the back to 80¢ lower at the front).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ higher Monday afternoon at $214.06/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $204.30.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower in the front four contracts and then mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Monday, buoyed by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 153 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 110 points higher.

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“Wholesale boxed beef prices have dropped nearly back to pre-COVID-19 levels and may go lower into mid-summer as abundant third-quarter beef production could highlight potential recessionary demand weakness,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains cattle slaughter continues to recover from disruptions wrought by the pandemic, with estimated slaughter the week ending June 20 being 98.2% of year-earlier levels.

At the same time, the backlog of fed cattle continues to add days on feed and pounds per carcass.

Year to date, Peel notes steer and heifer carcass weights averaged 27.4 lbs. heavier year over year. Carcasses were an average of 20.4 lbs. heavier in the first quarter; 36.7 lbs. heavier for April 1 to June 6.

Beef production was 8.0% more year over year in the first quarter, while second-quarter production is estimated to be 14.0% less year over year, according to Peel. That makes for 3.8% less beef production for the year through June 19.

“The combination of recovered slaughter and higher carcass weights resulted in weekly beef production in mid-June estimated to be above year-earlier levels for the first time in 10 weeks,” Peel says. “Weekly beef production is likely to exceed year-earlier levels for the third quarter and perhaps for the balance of the year.”

More specifically, he explains third-quarter beef production is forecast to be nearly 6% higher than the same time last year. Annual beef production this year is forecast to be slightly more than last year at a record 27.3 billion lbs.

“With beef supplies increasing in the second half of the year, beef demand will be critical,” Peel says. “Retail grocery will transition from limited beef supplies in recent weeks to ample supplies at the same time that food service demand is slowly building.” 

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were lower to sharply lower last week, with significantly heavier carcasses than a year ago and the continued backlog of market-ready cattle.

Based on reports from the Agricultural Marketing Service, the last established market in the Texas Panhandle was at $98/cwt., which was $6-$10 less than the previous week. Until then, prices were about $5 less at around $100, according to the Texas Cattle Feeders Association. Live prices were $4-$6 lower in Kansas at mostly $100-$102, steady to $10 lower in Nebraska at $98-$102 and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $99-$102. Dressed trade was steady to $12 lower at $158-$160.

Through Thursday, the five-area direct weighted average price for steers on a live basis was $100.82/cwt., which was  $4.02 less than the previous week. The average dressed steer price was $160.74, which was $5.91 less. Prices at the same time last year were at $110.43 and $180.56, respectively. Keep in mind that carcass weights are contra-seasonal and significantly heavier than last year.

Cattle futures closed mostly narrowly mixed Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 63¢ lower through the front five contracts (10¢ lower to $1.37 lower in spot Jun) and then an average of 16¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 24¢ lower to an average of 24¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 16¢ higher Friday afternoon at $213.72/cwt. Select was 17¢ lower at $203.91.

The average dressed steer weight for the week ending June 6 was 892 lbs., which was 1 lb. heavier than the prior week and 46 lbs. heavier than the same week a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight of 824 lbs. was 2 lbs. lighter than the previous week, but 42 lbs. heavier than the prior year.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. 

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mainly lower on Friday, following a volatile session. Key pressure appeared to stem from the spike in COVID cases in some states, leading to worries about the path of economic reopening.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 208 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ closed 3 points higher.

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If anything, Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report from USDA will likely be viewed as at least a touch bearish, with more cattle placed, fewer cattle marketed and slightly more cattle on feed June 1 than the trade expected. That’s for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity.

Placements in May of 2.04 million head were 26,000 head fewer (-1.26%) than the previous year. Average analyst estimates ahead of the report expected placements to be 2.3% less.

In terms of placement weights: 33.38% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less; 49.93% weighed 700-899 lbs.; 16.69% weighed 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in May of 1.5 million head were 570,000 head fewer (-27.54%) than a year earlier. That’s the least marketings for the month since the data series began in 1996. Ahead of the report, on average, analysts expected marketings to be down 26.4%.

There were 11.67 million head on feed June 1, which was 57,000 head fewer (-0.49%) than a year earlier. That’s the second highest June inventory since the data series began in 1996. Average analyst expectations were for a decline of 1%.