WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle sales were mixed on a live basis Thursday, compared to last week: steady in Nebraska at $119-$120/cwt., steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $115; steady to $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $115-$120. Dressed prices were steady to $12 lower at $178-$190.

Cattle futures closed mixed but mainly higher Thursday, bouncing back from early pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher, except for 5¢ and 67¢ lower in near and away Oct, respectively.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, an average of 99¢ higher across the front half of the board (45¢ higher to $1.47 higher in spot Aug) to an average 12¢ lower across the back half.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.21 lower Thursday afternoon at $369.56/cwt. Select was $6.11 lower at $344.09.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher through May ’21 and then mostly 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, apparently mostly hamstrung by rising political tensions between the U.S. and China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 147 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ closed 43 points lower.

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Recent slaughter data suggest the worst of COVID-19 packing disruptions may be over.

“For beef and pork, the plants are mainly back online, but are running at reduced capacity due to social distancing of workers, etc. Beef and pork are currently running at about 10% to 15% below last year,” says Jayson Lusk, agricultural economist at Purdue University, in his latest comments. “The worst of the disruptions occurred in late April and early May when we were running about 40% below last year, but significant improvements have been made since then.”

For perspective, the week ending May 2 might be the ebb in packing capacity, when USDA estimated cattle slaughter at 425,000 head, which was 36.8% less (-248,000 head) year over year. Actual cattle slaughter under federal inspection that week ended up 438,614 head, which was 34.8% less (-233,836 head).

By the week ending May 23, estimated slaughter of 555,000 head was 14.2% less (-92,000 head) than a year earlier. Actual slaughter data for the week wasn’t yet available.

There’s still an immense and growing backlog of market-ready fed cattle, but gains in packing capacity suggest it may prove to be less than originally anticipated.

In the meantime, longer-fed cattle are racking up the per-head tonnage.

The average dressed steer weight for the week ending May 16 was 901 lbs., which was 5 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 52 lbs. heavier than the same week a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight of 831 lbs. was 2 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 43 lbs. heavier than last year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued steady to unevenly steady Wednesday across a broad range: $120/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $115 on a live basis in the western Corn Belt, but lower in Nebraska at $114-$115. Dressed sales so far this week are at $178-$190.

Cattle feeders consigned 1,164 head to Wednesday’s weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction–all from the Southern Plains. None sold.

Slaughter steers and heifers sold unevenly steady at Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota, where 262 head of Choice 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,411 lbs. sold for an average of $110.40/cwt.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, maintaining strong gains from the previous session.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 70¢ higher (10¢ higher to $1.47 higher toward the front of the board). Spot June closed at $100.80, the highest level since the first part of March.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 66¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $7.72 lower Wednesday afternoon at $377.77/cwt. Select was $9.82 lower at $350.20.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday. Optimism included the fact that all 50 states are now open for business, to varying degrees.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 553 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 72 points higher.

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Customer transactions at major U.S. restaurant chains continued to improve slightly for the fifth consecutive week, according to the NPD Group.

Specifically, restaurant customer transactions for the week ending May 17 were 21% less than a year earlier, compared to a decline of 23% the previous week.

Transactions at major quick service chain restaurants, which represent the majority of restaurant transactions, improved by 1% week to week, to a decline of 21%, according to NPD’s CREST^®Performance Alerts.

Restaurant transactions at major full service chains were 49% less than a year earlier, which was 9% more positive than the previous week. The NPD folks say the lifting of COVID restrictions the previous week added 93,000 restaurant units, which helped bolster transaction improvement.

Transactions at full service restaurants in states where on-premise dining was permitted to reopen as of May 10 improved 13 percentage points in the week ending May 17, down 33% year over year, compared to a decline of 46% the prior week.

“The reopening of restaurant dine-in services across the country will certainly continue to help drive improvements, but it’s important to keep in mind that restaurant on-premise dining operations are not serving to full capacity because of safety protocols,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor. “Equally important to the industry’s recovery is the consumer’s comfort level with dining in at a restaurant now.”  

As for dining at home, according to NPD’s NET^®COVID-19 Pantry & Food Strategy Tracker, consumers reported that 63% of their eating occasions during the COVID-19 outbreak have been atypical, meaning they’re eating foods and beverages that are different from their normal routines.

The weekly weighted average live steer price (five-area direct) last week was $117.06/cwt., which was $4.75 higher than the previous week. The weekly weighted steer price in the beef was $3.70 higher at $183.35.

Higher outside markets, last week’s friendly Cattle on Feed report and recent cash strength helped lift Cattle futures Tuesday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.06 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.86 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $11.25 lower Tuesday afternoon at $385.49/cwt. Select was $14.16 lower at $360.02.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Jan ’21 and then mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher. Support included announcement of new export sales to China.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, buoyed by positive economic news as the domestic economy continues to reopen.

The closely watched Consumer Confidence Index® held steady in May, following the steep decline in April.

“Following two months of rapid decline, the free-fall in Confidence stopped in May,” says Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The severe and widespread impact of COVID-19 has been mostly reflected in the Present Situation Index, which has plummeted nearly 100 points since the onset of the pandemic. Short-term expectations moderately increased as the gradual reopening of the economy helped improve consumers’ spirits. However, consumers remain concerned about their financial prospects. In addition, inflation expectations continue to climb, which could lead to a sense of diminished purchasing power and curtail spending. While the decline in confidence appears to have stopped for the moment, the uneven path to recovery and potential second wave are likely to keep a cloud of uncertainty hanging over consumers’ heads.”

Also, sales of new single-family houses in April 2020 beat widespread expectations at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. That was 0.6% more than the revised March rate, but 6.2% less than a year earlier. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 529 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 15 points higher.

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Feedlot placements for March and April were down a combined 867,000 head from the previous year, suggesting a significant decline in fed marketing, mostly in September and into October, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his latest market comments.

“The delayed placements from March and April will show up starting in May, and will be heavier, but the delay will help feedlots have a chance to get current,” Peel says. “The feedlot industry will spend much of the summer working through the backlog of fed cattle but the hole from March and April feedlot placements should provide a marketing window to catch up by this fall if not before.”

Although average year-over-year fed cattle marketings declined an average of 6.4% for March and April combined, Peel notes, “The slowdown in April marketings and resulting backlog of fed cattle in feedlots would have been more severe without the strong March marketings that pulled some cattle ahead.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up mainly $5-$10 higher on a live basis last week at mostly $120/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at $119-$120 in Nebraska. Dressed trade was mostly $10 higher at mainly $190.

Cattle futures hovered Friday, amid light trade.

Live Cattle futures closed mostly narrowly mixed, from an average of 54¢ lower (5¢ to $1.10 lower in spot Jun) to an average of 16¢ higher.

Except for 7¢ lower in new spot Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed unchanged to 7¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.07 lower Friday afternoon at $396.74/cwt. Select was $8.35 lower at $374.18.

USDA estimated total cattle slaughter for the week at 555,000 head, which would be 56,000 head more (+11.2%) than the previous week, but 92,000 head fewer (-14.2%) than the same week a year earlier. Year to date, cattle slaughter of 12.11 million head is 893,000 head fewer (-6.9%) than the same period least year.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ lower through Jan ’21 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices basically tread water on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 8 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 39 points higher.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral, with numbers about mirroring pre-report estimates.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, there were 1.43 million head placed in April, which was 410,000 head fewer (-22.26%) than the previous year. In terms of weights, 33.17% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 49.37% weighed 700-899 lbs. and 17.46% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

There were 1.46 million head marketed in April, which was 469,000 head fewer (-24.32%) than the previous year. That was about 1% more positive than pre-report estimates. April marketings were the least for the month since the data series began in 1996, according to AMS.

There were 11.20 million head on feed May 1, which was 607,000 head fewer (-5.14%) than the previous year.

In light trade on Thursday, negotiated cash fed cattle prices were mostly steady with the previous day’s higher prices: mainly around $120/cwt. on a live basis and at $180-$190 in the beef.

Recent strength in cash prices added firmness to Cattle futures Thursday, amid light trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ higher (7¢ to 92¢ higher).

Except for 2¢ higher in two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed unchanged to 37¢ lower.

On average, analysts surveyed by Urner Barry and reported by the Daily Livestock Report, expect April placements to be 22.9% less than a year earlier, April marketings to be 25.4% less and cattle on feed to be 5% less, for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity. The monthly Cattle on Feed report is due out Friday afternoon.

Wholesale beef values continue to decline as packing capacity continues to return (see below).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.23 lower Thursday afternoon at $401.81/cwt. Select was $8.65 lower at $382.53.

The average dressed steer weight was 896 lbs. the week ending May 9, according to USDA’s weekly Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 3 lbs. heavier than the previous week and 44 lbs. heavier than the same week last year. The average dressed heifer weight was 829 lbs., which was 3 lbs. heavier than the prior week and 35 lbs. heavier than the previous year.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ lower through Jan ’21 and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, with pressure including more political saber rattling between the U.S. and China, as well as continued massive unemployment claims.

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending May 16 was 2.44 million, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 101 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ closed 90 points lower.

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“The recent declines in the boxed beef cutout value coincide with continued improvement in processing totals,” says Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, in the May 18 issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The Estimated Daily Slaughter report showed an estimate for last week at 499,000 head. While still 25% lower than a year ago, this would be a 10% improvement over the week prior. Perhaps more importantly, it would mark the second consecutive weekly increase after five straight weeks of declines. A continuing loosening of the logjam at the processing sector is critical to the cattle and meat sector and would support increased cattle slaughter and increased beef availability.”

Total cattle slaughter under federal inspection in April was 2.19 million head, which was 599,700 head fewer (-21.50%) than the previous year, according to USDA’s monthly Livestock Slaughter report (LSR). Of those, total fed steer and heifer slaughter of 1.65 million head was 552,500 head fewer (-25.04%).

On the other end of the trade, Maples notes the significant decline in boxed beef sales for delivery beyond 22 days.

Based on the weekly USDA National Comprehensive Boxed Beef Cutout report, Maples explains the average weekly number of loads sold during the past five weeks was 4,675, which was 32% less than the same time period last year. Negotiated sales for delivery within 21 days were 18% less, while negotiated sales for delivery at 22 days or more declined 64% and forward contract sales declined 65%.

Federally inspected beef production in April was 1.78 billion lbs., which was 452 million pounds less (-20.23%) than a year earlier, according to the LSR. Total federally inspected red meat production for the month of 3.81 billion lbs. was 696 million lbs. less (-15.42% ) than last year.

“Given the uncertainty about both available supply and expected demand, it is likely not surprising that sales for delivery further into the future have shown the biggest decline,” Maples says.