WLI

The weekly five-area direct fed steer price last week was $8.23 less than the prior week on a live basis at $111.08/cwt. It was $11.95 less in the beef at $176.93.

Chatter to start the week included wonderment about reduced slaughter this week, given last week’s decline in volume, scheduled maintenance at packing plants and further indications that labor issues could intensify (see below).

Perhaps that was one reason behind the limit down move in spot Live Cattle futures (closing at $83.82), while buying interest picked up across most other contracts.

After $4.50 lower and 55¢ lower in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.74 higher, (52¢ higher to $2.30 higher toward the back.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.26 higher, ($1.20 to $2.90 higher).

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 39¢ lower Monday afternoon at $230.05/cwt. Select was 81¢ lower at $215.03.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices surged sharply higher Monday, with various data suggesting stable to slower spread of COVID-19 here and abroad. The bounce came despite renewed pressure on front-month Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,627 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 175 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 540 points.

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Potential for COVID-19 disrupting packing plant production—or any other key components of the supply chain—is a growing concern with reports of confirmed cases at specific plants, reduced production schedules, slower production and labor absenteeism.

Agricultural economists, Glynn Tonsor at Kansas State University and Lee Schulz at Iowa State University offer insight to potential impact on fed cattle prices.

Relative to the supply of slaughter cattle—the same number of cattle or increasing cattle numbers—cash fed cattle prices decline as beef packing plant capacity utilization increases, according to Assessing Impact of Packing Plant Utilization on Livestock Prices.

Said another way, cash prices decline as competition for hook space increases.

“It should be noted that packer capacity is not an average annual concept, it’s how close the industry is to capacity at peak harvest times. Peak fed cattle slaughter typically occurs in the summer,” say Tonsor and Schulz.

With their specific modeling, Tonsor and Shulz found that 1% more national beef packing plant utilization corresponded to a 1.32% reduction in cash fed cattle prices. Their report details the model development they utilized to estimate capacity utilization and price impacts.

“Accordingly, for demonstration purposes, if the industry operates at 20% lower capacity rates (increased capacity utilization), then we may anticipate fed cattle prices to decline by 26.49%. The extent to which these effects are already priced into the market are beyond the scope of this report, but regardless this clearly demonstrates the economic importance of packing plant utilization on cattle prices.”

Fed cattle price declines in the wake of last summer’s Tyson packing plant fire offers a real-world example of the concept.

As logic suggests, pork packing plant utilization impacts finished hog prices similarly.

“The model indicates that a 1% increase in national pork packing plant utilization corresponds with a 1.82% reduction in hog prices. Using the hypothetical scenario of pork slaughter operating at 20% lower capacity (increased capacity utilization), based on our model, we may anticipate hog prices to decline by 36.35%,” according to Tonsor and Shulz. “Again, the degree to which this may be already priced into the market is unknown.”

Moreover, Tonsor and Shulz emphasize their approach offers a broad context, considering aggregate effects at the national level.

“Regional effects on markets more closely aligned with any specific plants altering operation would likely differ,” they explain. “The impact of a particular plant closure would likely have a lot to do with its location and its size. For example, in 2018, cattle slaughter plants under federal inspection (FI), with 1 million head or more annual capacity slaughtered over 56% of the FI cattle slaughter. FI hog slaughter plants with 3 million head or more annual capacity slaughtered over 62% of the FI hog slaughter. This reflects the leveraged, aggregate economic impact that would occur from decreases in capacity of larger plants.”

Cattle futures closed mixed amid a volatile trading session, with fairly active trade in Live Cattle and the previous session’s increased open interest.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 lower in the front three contract, (30¢ lower to $4.50 lower in spot Apr), but then an average of $1.04 higher (55¢ higher to $1.70 higher), except for unchanged in the back contract.

Except for 75¢ higher in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.07 lower, (90¢ lower to $3.55 lower).

Wholesale beef values were lower to sharply lower on light demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.20 lower Friday afternoon at $230.44/cwt. Select was $6.28 lower at $215.84.

After 1¢ to 2¢ lower in the front two contracts, Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, despite further gains in energy markets.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.62 to $3.02 higher through the front six contracts. That was $3.10 to $8.03 higher over the last two sessions.

Although expected, the bearish monthly employment report weighed on markets. Total non-farm payroll employment fell by 701,000 month to month in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 11¢ to $28.62. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased 3.1%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 360 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 114 points.

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Despite global challenges stemming from COVID-19, U.S. beef exports in February were 18% more year over year in volume at 112,021 metric tons (mt) and 17% more in value at $681 million, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports are on a record pace through the first two months of 2020, up 10% in volume and 11% in value at $1.35 billion.

Beef export value per head of fed slaughter was $343.03 in February, up 11% from a year earlier and the highest since December 2018. The January-February average was 7% higher at $321.86.

Export results confirmed that global demand for high-quality protein remains strong and resilient, according to Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO.

“By February, COVID-19 had emerged as a major health concern in several key Asian markets and was certainly impacting consumer and business activity, so it is great to see U.S. pork and beef exports achieve such strong growth,” Halstrom says. “Obviously these are uncertain economic times and the road ahead remains very challenging, but these results are really a great testament to our international customer base. In the face of unprecedented obstacles, importers, retailers and restaurateurs are finding creative ways to meet consumer needs, and with record production the U.S. industry is well-positioned as a supplier. While we are in an unusual business climate that requires a lot of flexibility and innovation, there are excellent opportunities for red meat exports to continue to build momentum.”

U.S. pork exports are also off to a record pace this year. They were 46% higher for volume in February at 273,056 mt, the third largest on record for the month. U.S. pork export value was 59% more than a year earlier at $726.6 million. For the first two months of the year, pork exports exceeded last year’s pace by 41% in volume and 54% in value at $1.47 billion.

February Beef Export Highlights

Mainstay Asian markets Japan, South Korea and Taiwan fueled beef export growth in February, but shipments also increased to key destinations in the Western Hemisphere, Africa and the Middle East.

February beef exports to leading market Japan increased 24% in volume from a year ago to 27,099 mt and climbed 20% in value to $171.4 million. Through February, exports exceeded last year’s pace by 10% in volume and 7% in value at $329.5 million.

Demand for U.S. beef continued to build momentum in Korea, where February exports were 33% more than last year in volume at 23,532 mt and 32% more in value at $167.7 million. Volume through the first two months of the year is 16% ahead of last year’s record; 14% higher in value at $298.4 million.

U.S. beef exports in February to Mexico were 5% more last year for volume at 41,862 mt, and 10% more in value at $217 million. Mexico is the largest volume market for U.S. beef variety meat, and January-February variety meat exports climbed 16% from a year ago in both volume (18,182 mt) and value ($49.3 million).

February U.S. beef export to China were 12% more year over year at 1,408 mt. Value was 4% more at $10.4 million. USMEF expects momentum to build for U.S. beef in the world’s largest import market, due to expanded market access.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained largely undeveloped through Thursday afternoon. However, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), there was a light test of live sales in all regions Wednesday at mostly $112/cwt. and at $175-$180 in the beef. That was $6-$8 less than last week on a live basis and $10-$15 less dressed.

Cattle future tumbled further Thursday, pressured by beef demand uncertainty, declining wholesale beef values and softer cash prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.28 lower, expanded limit-down in the front four contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.31 lower, expanded limit-down in the front five contracts.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.53 lower Thursday afternoon at $232.64/cwt. Select was $3.01 lower at $222.12.

The average dressed steer weight for the week ending Mar. 21 was 3 lbs. lighter than the previous week at 898 lbs., but 32 lbs. heavier than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight was 836 lbs., which was 1 lb. heavier than the prior week and 32 lbs. heavier than the previous year.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ‘20 and then mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday. Support included a surge in crude oil prices, tied to reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to end their price war.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.48 to $5.01 higher through the front six contracts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 469 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

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The AMS reporter on hand for this week’s sale at Green City Livestock Auction in Missouri aptly summed up the current market situation: “It’s really a different world since the last sale in early March as the economy as a whole and the beef sector in particular has absorbed hit after hit. Volatile doesn’t seem a strong enough word to describe the situation anymore, as daily limit up and down moves at the CME are almost expected; even harder to swallow is that it’s driven by funds and not fundamentals. Those big moves take all the confidence out of a cash market and make it difficult for producers to decide when to turn loose as well as for buyers to figure what one is worth. Locally, lots of cattlemen have already held their stock longer than they normally would, waiting for the market to stabilize.”

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U.S. beef exports are projected to be $100 million less than last year at $7.5 billion, according to the latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. At the same time, analysts with those agencies project total livestock, poultry and dairy exports to be $500 million more at $32.4 billion, led by gains in poultry. Expectations for pork exports remained unchanged.

Global GDP) for this year remained unchanged from the November forecast at 1.5%. Expected U.S. GDP was reduced 0.2% to 1.1% on diminished business prospects.

“A slowdown across the Eurozone, declining growth rates in China and the recent damaging global impact of the Covid-19 outbreak is expected to dampen growth prospects worldwide,” say USDA and FAS analysts.

Cash fed cattle trade took on a decidedly bearish tone Wednesday.

Slaughter steers and heifers sold $17-$20 lower at Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota. Choice 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,411 lbs. brought an average price of $100.45/cwt. Country trade in the western Corn Belt last week was at mostly $120.

Cattle feeders offered 4,696 head in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction Wednesday. Just 832 head sold: 662 head at a weighted average price of $113/cwt. for delivery at 1-9 days; 170 head at a weighted average of $112.06 for delivery at 1-17 days. Most of the sales were from the Sothern Plains where last week’s negotiated cash price was $118-$120.

Cattle future fell hard Wednesday, limit down across the board, except one Live Cattle contract. Pressure included the softer cash outlook and diving wholesale beef values, as well as lower outside markets. News that a significant number of workers at JBS facilities in Greeley, CO stayed home Tuesday, due to confirmed cases of COVID-19, also weighed.

Except for 85¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.50 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed limit-down $4.50.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $7.98 lower Wednesday afternoon at $235.17/cwt. Select was $3.83 lower at $225.13. Over the last two days, Choice was down $15.80 and Select was $13.01 lower. Also, drop value sank to a new multi-year low of $7.92/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 23¢ lower through Mar ’21 and then mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended losses Wednesday, as investors grew more pessimistic about how quickly the U.S. can get back to business. Specific negative news included quantification of decreased U.S. manufacturing last month.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector was 1% less in March than the previous month, with the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index® (PMI) at 49.1.

“The coronavirus pandemic and shocks in global energy markets have impacted all manufacturing sectors,” says Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Comments from the panel were negative regarding the near-term outlook, with sentiment clearly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and energy market volatility. The PMI returned to contraction territory, and with a negative trajectory.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 973 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 114 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 339 points.

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Tough markets for the leather industry will likely continue this year, according to the Leather and Hide Council of America (LHCA).

Part of the challenge has to do with plentiful supply, on the heels of U.S. cowherd expansion. Part has to do with trade issues before COVID-19. More important in the eyes of many U.S. hides and skins suppliers, though, is the global leather demand situation, and the rise of synthetic products as alternatives to leather.

Plastic synthetic alternatives that look like leather have taken significant market share away from leather in consumer product areas such as footwear and automobile upholstery, according to the LHCA. In fact, organization representatives say the situation is so dire that some lower-quality hides and skins are being composted and destroyed rather than processed into leather, a trend that will continue this year.

Based on USDA data, the United States exported more than $1.17 billion worth of cattle hides, pig skins and semi-processed leather products last year. That was $450 million less than the previous year.      

China was the largest buyer of salted cattle hides, with imports valued at more than $400 million last year, according to the LHCA. Italy was the single largest destination for wet blue cattle hides, with imports valued at more than $122 million. Other large export markets included South Korea, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam.

On a positive note, U.S. hide exports continue to move overseas, despite COVID-19, although that could change if ports are forced to shut down, or if container availability challenges and congestion issues accelerate.

“It is difficult to predict the exact economic impact of the virus, but it is likely to be significant, considering labor shortages recorded at ports and in manufacturing facilities abroad, compounded by an observed decline in retail traffic both globally and in the U.S.,” according to the LCHA.