WLI

The 5-area direct average steer price last week was $118.21/cwt. on a live basis, which was $2.25 higher than the previous week. The average dressed price of $186.83 was $3.24 higher. Total volume of just 51,310 head, pressured by both the holiday and winter storms suggests packers need to be in a buying mood this week.

Cattle futures began the week narrowly mixed, amid relatively light trade, with little urgency one direction or the other.

Except for unchanged and 5¢ higher in the middle of the board, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 23¢ lower.

Except for unchanged to 12¢ lower in the front three contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and sharply higher on Select with moderate to good demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ higher Monday afternoon at $232.61/cwt. Select was $2.64 higher at $212.98.

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower through Nov ’20 and then most fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, pressured by weak manufacturing data and ongoing uncertainty surrounding a U.S.-China trade deal.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector declined in November, according to the closely watched Purchasing Managers Index® from the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM). Month to month, it declined two percentage points in November to 48.1%

“Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue. Among the six big industry sectors, Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products remains the strongest, while Fabricated Metal Products is the weakest. Overall, sentiment this month is neutral regarding near-term growth,” says Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 268 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 97 points.

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Although recent winter storms may not be widespread enough to cause noticeable fed cattle market reactions, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says they may delay cattle finishing and disrupt slaughter flows in some regions.

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains the storms may also ensure the seasonal peak is in for carcass weights.

“Steer and heifer carcass weights pushed above year-ago levels the past few weeks with the latest steer carcass weights at 912 lbs. compared to 900 lbs. last year and heifer carcasses at 841 lbs., up from 836 lbs. one year ago on the same date. However, for the year to date, steer carcass weights are down 3.3 lbs. and heifer carcasses are down 4.4 lbs. An early storm like this may set the stage for a long period of feedlot production challenges with impacts persisting and accumulating through the winter.”

Of course, widespread severe weather also can impact demand.

“Winter storms may disrupt transportation and the flow of perishable products to markets,” Peel says. “Though people continue to eat during storms, travel and business disruptions often reduce restaurant traffic and power disruptions may reduce meat demand as consumers hunker down and get through the storm with minimal cooking and more use of prepared and ready-to-eat products.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was mainly $2-$3 higher on a live basis at $118/cwt. in Kansas, $118-$120 in Nebraska and $117-$118 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $187.

Cattle futures softened Friday, amid light holiday trade and month-end positioning.

Other than unchanged to 10¢ higher in the last three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ lower (15¢ lower at the back to $1.05 lower in spot Jan).

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 12¢ lower Friday afternoon at $232.12/cwt. Select was 30¢ lower at $210.34.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Jan ’21 and then most unchanged to fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, amid holiday-shortened trade and likely month-end profit taking and book squaring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 112 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

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The European Parliament approved the previously announced plan granting the United States a country-specific share of the European Union’s (EU) duty-free high-quality beef quota, according to the US. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Specifically, the U.S. will be able to nearly triple its annual duty-free exports of beef to the EU over the next seven years, with annual duty-free exports expected to grow from $150 million to $420 million when the agreement is fully implemented.

“Approval by the European Parliament keeps this agreement on track for implementation in early 2020, which is outstanding news for the U.S. beef industry and our customers in Europe,” according to a USMEF statement. “Lack of capacity in the duty-free quota has been a source of frustration on both sides of the Atlantic, and a U.S.-specific share of the quota will help ensure that U.S. beef can enter the European market 52 weeks per year, without delay or interruption.”

The EU is one of the world’s highest value destinations for U.S. beef.

Although undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon, there was some negotiated cash fed cattle trade in Kansas, with live prices $2 higher than last week at $118/cwt.

Similarly, Choice steers and heifers sold $3.00-$3.25 higher at the fat auction in Tama, IA on Wednesday. There were 124 Ch 2-4 steers weighing an average of 1,477 lbs. that brought an average of $118.12.

Cattle futures closed higher, supported by positive fundamentals, this week’s winter storms and the presumption that Tyson’s Kansas plant will resume operation next week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 77¢ higher (47¢ higher to $1.02 higher at the front of the board.

Other than 57¢ higher in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.52 higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and lower on Select with light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $232.24/cwt. Select was $1.65 lower at $210.64.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday on strong economic data. For instance, new durable goods orders were 0.6% higher than the previous month, while economist consensus was for a decline. As well, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised estimated third-quarter GDP 0.2% higher to 2.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 42 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 57 points.

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“Lifetime animal health management is increasingly recognized as a significant challenge for the beef cattle industry with implications ranging from fetal programming that impacts lifetime health and productivity; to genetic identification of disease susceptibility; to improved economic incentives for better coordination of animal health management across multiple production sectors,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. “Improved animal health management not only increases ranch returns but increases value to the entire industry.”

In recent market comments, Peel points out Kansas feedlot survey data underscores what stocker operators and feedlots know far too well: health challenges continue to increase over time.

For instance, based on the aforementioned data, Peel says average feedlot death loss nearly doubled from 0.82% in 1995-1996 to 1.60% in the most recent 24 months. He adds that Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD) causes 70-80% of feedlot morbidity and 40-50% of feedlot mortality.

“Preconditioning programs add value to cattle and the value is consistently reflected in premiums for certified preconditioned calves sold under programs such as the Oklahoma Quality Beef Network (OQBN). Weaning is arguably the most important component of preconditioning and preconditioning protocols routinely call for a minimum of 45 days of weaning prior to marketing calves,” Peel explains. “Anecdotal indications are that 45 days is becoming a bare minimum with 60 or more days of weaning preferred by buyers struggling with the continuing health challenges of cattle. Calves noted as un-weaned are currently discounted 4-5% in Oklahoma auctions.”

Basis the $162.36/cwt. paid for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing an average of 527 lbs. at Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday, that was a discount of $6.49 to $8.12/cwt. or roughly $30-$40 per calf.

Of course, some producers are unable to wean and precondition calves, while the added return falls short of added cost and risk for others. In those cases, Peel emphasizes other management that helps increase calf health; such things as complete vaccinations, deworming, castration and dehorning ahead of marketing.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon, based on USDA reports. Recent fundamentals and this week’s winter storms suggest prices should be no worse than steady.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher, amid light trade and waiting for cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 52¢ higher, with open interest continuing to build.

After 35¢ and 12¢ lower at the front of the board, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and firm on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.40 lower Tuesday afternoon at $231.84/cwt. Select was 38¢ higher at $212.29.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower through Aug ’21 and then mostly 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Tuesday, helped along by positive sales and earnings from major retailers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 55 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 15 points.

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U.S. consumers may appear to be creatures of habit in their eating patterns but the foods they eat today have a modern twist influenced by a host of factors such as ethnicity, age/generational group, and health/social consciousness, according to the NPD Group (NPD). That organization has tracked American eating patterns for the last 34 years.

Here are some highlights from NPD Group’s latest annual edition of Eating Patterns in America:

• There were more than 460 billion in-home and away-from-home eating and drinking occasions in the U.S. last year.
• 16% of consumers regularly use plant-based alternatives such as almond milk, tofu, and veggie burgers; 89% of these consumers do not consider themselves vegan or vegetarian.
• 14% of in-home eating occasions included at least one item that required no preparation, compared to only 11% of occasions in 2013.
• Visits to quick-service restaurants increased by 630 million visits since 2014, while total visits to restaurants declined by more than 700 million visits.
• 19% of grocery shoppers now order their edible groceries online; from 2017 to 2020 the average annual growth rate for digital restaurant orders is forecast at 22%.
• One in five adults try to manage a health condition with their food and beverage choices.

“This past year we’ve seen emerging new eating trends that will impact both the food and beverage and restaurant industries in the years to come,” says David Portalatin, NPD Food Industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Food manufacturers and restaurant operators will need to understand how these trends will impact their businesses in order to stay ahead of the curve.”

Logic suggested markets should view Friday’s Cattle on Feed as at least neutral, with placements 2% less than expected. However, the fact that placements were 10% higher year over year also suggested there might be an opportunity for bears to press their case with follow-through selling. Instead, Cattle futures climbed higher to start the week, gaining back a lion’s share of Friday’s retreat.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.27 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.72 higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $233.24/cwt. Select was 59¢ higher at $211.91.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher through Mar ’21 and then 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with growing optimism about the U.S. and China reaching agreement on the first phase of a trade deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 190 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 112 points.

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“Annual average feedlot inventories (12-month moving average) peaked in August but there is a chance that strong placements in the next few months could push to a higher average total,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “In other words, feedlot inventories are close but may not yet be quite at a cyclical peak.”

Reviewing Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, Peel points out heavy feeders dominated placements.

“Placements of feeder cattle over 800 lbs. were up 29.5% year over year, with placements 700-800 lbs. up 14.9% compared to one year ago,” Peel says.  “Meanwhile, placement of feeders under 600 lbs. were down 6.3% year over year.  In the three months from August-October, placements of feeders over 700 lbs. were up 4.6% year over year, while placements of cattle less than 700 lbs. were down 2.8%. This means that feedlots will be somewhat front-loaded for the next few months.”

As noted in Monday’s Cattle Current, 46.02% of October placements weighed 699 lbs. or less; 40.05% weighed 700-899 lbs.; 13.93% weighed more than 900 lbs.

“It would appear that anecdotal stories of cattle doing very well this summer were accurate, given placement weights,” says David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University. “It’s interesting to note that 25,000 more head were placed weighing over 1,000 pounds than a year ago. For the year, placements are about half a percent ahead of last year.”

In the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, Anderson explains most heavyweight placements in the fall usually come in September, while heavyweight placements in the spring usually come in March and May as cattle come off wheat pasture and other winter grazing programs.