WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended the week $2-$3 lower at $119/cwt. on a live basis and $3 lower in the beef at $190.

Recent oversold conditions continued to help lift Cattle futures higher Friday as traders positioned for the three-day weekend.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.17 higher, from 77¢ higher to $1.80 higher toward the front of the board.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.36 higher. That’s an average of $3.62 higher in the last two sessions.

Wholesale beef values were higher on good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.64 higher Friday afternoon at $208.09/cwt. Select was $1.92 higher at $205.71.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday, amid mixed economic news and as investors positioned for the holiday weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 19 points.

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“The cattle herd is expected to decline cyclically in the early part of the projection as producers respond to lower returns,” say USDA analysts, in the Agricultural Projections to 2029, released Friday. “A decline in cattle numbers early in the period will likely contribute to higher cattle prices, although a modest herd expansion the rest of the period pressures cattle prices lower. Rising slaughter weights, due to efficiencies from nutrition and genetics, will further support gains in beef production. Overall, beef production levels are expected to rise to 29.5 billion lbs. by 2029.”

The five-area direct fed steer price is projected to be $116/cwt. this year, then range from $116.37 (2024) to $121.39 (2023) over the next five years. From there, through 2029, the estimated range is $110.58 (2028) to $114.70 (2026).

USDA projects this year’s feeder steer price (basis Oklahoma City) to be $141/cwt. It ranges from $138.13 (2028) to $151.27 (2023) for the remainder of the projection period.

This year’s projected farm calf price of $160/cwt. is the lowest of the projection period, which ranges from $165.17 (2028) to $180.88 (2023).

Keep in mind short-term projections in the report began with the October 2019 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Projections don’t include recent trade deals, such as the Japan-U.S. free trade agreement, phase-one China trade deal or the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

“Robust demand provides incentives for the continued growth of the U.S. livestock sector over the next 10 years,” say USDA analysts. “In the beef cattle industry, the feed price ratio (cattle price/feed price) is expected to decline over the projection period, reflecting both modestly lower cattle prices and slowly rising feed prices, suggesting lower returns to production.”

Macroeconomic assumptions to the projections (completed in August last year) include:

Global macroeconomic conditions reflect real economic growth that is lower than in the 2010-2019 period, a relatively strong but declining U.S. dollar, and rising oil prices, which are expected to reach $91 per barrel by 2029.

Global real economic growth is projected to average 2.7% annually over the next decade, 2020-29. The United States is expected to average 1.8% growth annually, while developed countries, as a group, are expected to experience an average of 1.5% percent annual growth. Meanwhile, growth in the developing countries remains faster than the global average, but declines from 4.8% annual average growth during 2010-19, to 4.3% during 2020-29.

Steady global economic growth supports longer-term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries.

Lower prices for negotiated cash fed cattle continued in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt late Wednesday and Thursday with live sales $2-$3 lower at $119/cwt. and dressed sales $3 lower at $190.

Cattle futures continued to regain some footing amid more active trade and expanding open interest for the first time in a spell.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 79¢ higher, from 40¢ higher to $1.40 higher in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher, from 60¢ higher to $1.77 higher toward the front of the board.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and lower on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $206.45/cwt. Select was $1.51 lower at $203.79.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Thursday, amid reports of a jump in Chinese coronavirus cases and questions about how China is counting diagnosed and confirmed cases.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 13 points.

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“There are a number of factors that indicate that the land market will continue to be steady in 2020,” says Randy Dickhut, senior vice president of real estate operations for Farmers National Company (FNC). “Interest rates are low and are poised to remain so during the foreseeable future and government support through MFP payments will likely continue if Chinese trade issues are not fully resolved. Overall, agriculture is in adequate financial shape, but there are individual and regional concerns.”

FNC analysts add that buyer demand, relative to the supply, needs to continue for prices to maintain the plateau trend of the past few years. In 2019, for instance, they say prices held steady with less than the average supply of agricultural land for sale. 

“Investor interest in cropland increased somewhat in 2019 with several new entities entering the market and also from an increase in purchasing activity by existing institutional investors,” Dickhut says.

With buyers generally more cautious last year, some markets saw a move to private treaty listings or bid sales instead of the traditional public land auction, according to FNC.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade developed in the Southern Plains Wednesday with live sales at $118-$119/cwt., but mostly $119, which was mostly $2 less than last week.

Southern Plains cattle selling in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction also brought $119. There were 413 head offered; 315 head sold for delivery at 1-9 days.

Even so, Cattle futures finally clawed back some losses amid oversold conditions.

Except for 12¢ and 2¢ lower on either end of the board, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 56¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and higher on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.52 lower Wednesday afternoon at $206.31/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $205.30.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’21 and then mainly unchanged.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher through Nov ’20 and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Wednesday, buoyed by more reports that the spread of coronavirus is slowing

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 275 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 87 points.

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Customer transactions at U.S. restaurant chains were up in January, a benefit of milder weather compared to a year ago when extreme weather conditions and above average precipitation hit many areas of the U.S.

For the retail weeks ending January 6 through February 2, total restaurant transactions increased by 2% over same time last year and quick service restaurant (QSR) chains were the primary contributor, according to NPD’s CREST® Performance Alerts, which provides a weekly view of chain-specific transactions and share trends for 73 quick service, fast casual, midscale, and casual dining chains.

“January is historically one of the toughest months for U.S. restaurants and bad weather is usually a contributor,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America.

QSR chains, which represent the bulk of industry transactions, grew transactions by 2% in January following four consecutive weeks of gains compared to the declines experienced last January. However, the full service restaurant segment, which includes casual dining and midscale/family dining chains, experienced transaction declines throughout the month. Customer transactions at casual dining restaurants declined by 4% and midscale/family dining transactions decreased by 2%, according to NPD.

Although too few to trend, negotiated cash fed cattle trade took on a lower feel Tuesday with early live trades in Kansas and Nebraska at $119-$120/cwt., compared to $121 last week.

Cattle futures continued lower, pressured by the softer tone of the cash market.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 lower (67¢ to $1.50 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.10 lower.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and higher on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 lower Tuesday afternoon at $207.83/cwt. Select was 83¢ higher at $204.53.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed unchanged to fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices paddled in place Tuesday with various reports suggesting the spread of novel coronavirus is slowing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 10 points.

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The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) increased projected beef production for this year by 40 million lbs. compared to the January estimate at 27.48 billion lbs.

“The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month on higher cattle slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the first half of the year. However, the forecasts for second-half beef production is reduced on lower anticipated steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year,” explain USDA analysts. “This reflects a smaller number of cattle outside feedlots implied by the Jan. 1 Cattle report which results in lower placements during 2020.”

Total red meat and poultry production was projected 634 million lbs. more at 108.79 billion lbs.

The annual fed steer price (five-area direct) was projected at $117/cwt: $123 for the first quarter; $118 for the second; $112 for the third; $114 for the fourth quarter.

Among other WASDE highlights:

Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month. The season-average corn price received by producers was also unchanged at $3.85/bu. 

Soybeans

This month’s 2019-20 U.S. soybean outlook is for increased exports and lower ending stocks.

Soybean ending stocks were reduced 50 million bu. to 425 million, partly reflecting increased imports for China.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019-20 was forecast at $8.75/bu., down 25¢, reflecting reported prices to date. The soybean oil price forecast was lowered 0.5¢ to 33.5¢/lb. The soybean meal price forecast was unchanged at $305/short ton.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended last week $1 lower on a live basis at $121/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Nebraska; $121-$122 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $1-$2 lower at mostly $193.

Softer cash prices, declining wholesale beef values and queasiness over demand from a potentially slowing global economy weighed on Cattle futures to start the week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ lower.

Except for 5¢ and 2¢ higher in the front two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 97¢ lower (12¢ to $1.22 lower).

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and steady on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.21 lower Monday afternoon at $208.91/cwt. Select was 19¢ lower at $203.70.

Corn futures closed narrowly mixed but mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices on Monday regained most or all of what was lost in the previous session, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 174 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 107 points.

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Folks in the cattle and beef business have plenty of work ahead to correct the consumer misinformation surrounding fake meat.

In an online survey of more than 1,800 consumers, less than half of the respondents understood the labeling term “plant-based beef” was intended to describe an entirely vegetarian or vegan food product.

Approximately one third of surveyed consumers believed that plant-based fake meat products contained at least some real beef in them.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) commissioned the survey. Results were released last week.

When asked to evaluate specific product labels and marketing materials from some of the leading plant-based fake beef products currently on the market:

Nearly two-thirds of respondents believed the fake meat products produced by Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods and LightLife contained real beef or some form of animal byproduct.

32% of consumers who were shown a package of Beyond Meat’s “Beyond Burger” plant-based patties (which features a cow icon) told researchers that they thought the patties contained at least small amounts of real meat. It contains no beef.

37% of consumers who were shown a package of Lightlife’s “Gimme Lean”, which features the word “Beef” highlighted in a red box, said the product contained at least some real beef. It contains no beef.

“The fact that so many consumers look at these labels and think that the products include meat or other animal byproducts is a clear sign that the misleading labeling and deceptive marketing practices of plant-based fake meat companies has caused real consumer confusion,” says NCBA past president Jennifer Houston. “Many of these fake-meat products purposely use graphics and words that trade on beef’s good name, and it needs to stop immediately. Consumers rely on names and product packaging to inform their purchasing decisions, and they have a right to know that this information is accurate and not misleading.”

When asked to rank plant-based fake meat versus beef on a host of food attributes:

44% of consumers believed plant-based products were lower in sodium, when leading plant-based fake beef is anywhere between 220 to 620% higher in sodium than the same size serving of real ground beef. Just 24% of respondents correctly identified beef as being lower in sodium.

34% of respondents believed plant-based fake meat to be less processed than genuine beef and another 34% believed fake and real beef products were equivalent on the food processing scale. Scientifically speaking, beef is considered to be an unprocessed or minimally processed food, whereas plant-based fake meat products are classified as an ultra-processed food product.

On the broad category of healthfulness, more than half of consumers believed plant-based meat was better.

“This research is a wake-up call for our industry, the news media, and for federal regulators,” Houston says. “We in the beef industry need to do a better job educating consumers about the fact that beef is a nutrient-rich source of high-quality protein and essential nutrients that can play a key role in any healthy lifestyle. We also need reporters and regulators to understand how many consumers are confused and/or misinformed about exactly what’s in these new plant-based alternatives.”

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the power to prevent this sort of consumer confusion.