WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Thursday afternoon, according to USDA reports. Although too few to trend, there were a few live trades reported at $100-$101/cwt. in Kansas, which was $1 higher than last week.

Cattle futures closed mostly narrowly higher as traders anticipated cash trade and Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Except for an average of 45¢ lower in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ higher.

Except for an average of 20¢ lower in May, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 49¢ higher, from 7¢ higher to $1.00 higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 7¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $218.17 cwt. Select was 19¢ higher at $192.16.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher through Aug ’20 and then mostly 3¢- 6¢ lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points lower. The S&P 500 closed unchanged. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

*******************************

Depending on which analysts you consult, many expect Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report to show August placements approximately 6-8% less year over year, fueled in part by available forage and the tougher prices. August marketings are expected to be about 1.5% less. Most believe cattle on feed Sept. 1 will be less year to year—up to 1% less—for the first time in several years.

In the meantime, fed cattle slaughter continues to suggest current feedlot marketing, despite the logistical challenges from the hole in capacity, due to the Tyson fire.

The average fed steer dressed weight the week ending Sept. 7 was 893 lbs. according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 9 lbs. heavier week to week but 3 lbs. less year to year. Likewise the average dressed heifer weight was 4 lbs. heavier week to week, but 4 lbs. lighter year over year at 815 lbs.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices took on a firmer feel Wednesday.

There were 1,229 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. Of those, 281 head—two lots in the Southern Plains—sold for a weighted average price of $101.13/cwt., for delivery at 1-9 days. That’s $1-$2 more than negotiated trade in the region last week.

Slaughter steers and heifers sold $3-$5 higher at Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota. Choice 2-3 steers (319 head) averaged $103.40. Country trade in the region last week was at $101-$102.

Likewise, steers and heifers sold $4-$5 higher at the fat auction in Tama, IA. Choice 2-4 steers (197 head) averaged $107.54.

That helped Cattle futures close higher, despite continued erosion in wholesale beef values.

Except for an average of 10¢ lower in the back two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 59¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on light demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.53 lower Wednesday afternoon at $218.24/cwt. Select was $1.94 lower at $191.97.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher through the front three contracts and then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Wednesday. There was pressure earlier in the session, tied to the Fed meeting. Investors got the widely anticipated rate cut (down 25 basis points) but no confirmation that the central bank plans any more cuts this year.

“In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.75- 2.00%,” according to a statement from the FOMC. “This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2% objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 8 points.

*******************************

USDA expects lingering effects from the Tyson fire to keep pressure on feeder cattle prices, at least through the first part of next year.

“The shift in demand for fed cattle has put considerable pressure on feeder steer prices. Weakness in fed cattle prices will likely affect feedlots’ pricing of feeder cattle,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released yesterday. “On Sept. 9 at the Oklahoma National Stockyards, sales of feeder steers weighing 750-800 lbs. were reported at $134.80/cwt., down about $6 from the week before the fire. Based on recent price data, the third-quarter 2019 feeder steer price was lowered by $4 to $138/cwt. Because of the expected continuation of weaker fed cattle prices and a slower pace of marketing, the 2019 fourth-quarter feeder steer price forecast was lowered $5 from the prior month to $133. The impact of lower fed cattle prices is likely to carry into 2020. The price forecasts for feeder steer prices in the first and second quarter of 2020 were reduced by $5 to $135 and $140, respectively. As a result, the 2020 annual price forecast for feeder steers was $140.50 per cwt.”

As for the weaker fed cattle prices driving the pressure, ERS analysts point out the average 5-area direct fed steer price last week of $110.07/cwt. was almost 11% less than the week of the fire. Expected fed steer price for the third quarter was reduced by $3 to $107/cwt.

“With the expected return of the Holcomb plant in first-quarter 2020, the additional capacity would suggest some price support for fed cattle in early 2020. However, to the extent feedlots may have held cattle over from fourth-quarter 2019 into early 2020, increased availability of cattle may mitigate some of the upward pressure on prices from increased packer demand,” ERS analysts explain. “Accordingly, the first and second-quarter price forecasts for 2020 were reduced by $5 to $119 and $117, respectively. As a result, the 2020 annual price forecast for fed steers was lower by $4 to $115 per cwt.”

Cattle futures rallied higher Tuesday. Some of it could be traders sensing a bottom in the cash market, as well as potential optimism about the monthly Cattle on Feed report due out Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.32 higher through the front three contracts and then an average of 48¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 higher ($1.77 to $3.10 higher).

Wholesale beef values were lower to sharply lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 85¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $219.77/cwt. Select was $2.66 lower at $193.91.

Corn futures closed mostly 6¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower through Aug ’20 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Tuesday, helped by lower oil prices, as investors await the latest interest rate decision from the Fed’s meeting, which concludes Wednesday.

Oil prices declined after the previous day’s spike, with reports that Saudi Arabian production will recover quickly from the weekend attacks on its oil fields.

Through the front six contracts, crude oil futures (WTI-CME) were down an average of 3.24.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 32 points.

*******************************

“If we want to knock down barriers we need to make all players feel valued,” says Marcelo Gonzalez, Paraguayan Vice Minister of Livestock. “Think ahead and have a plan that thinks beyond 10 or 20 years to be sustainable. Sometimes farmers are already doing what we want them to do, but consumers don’t know and government doesn’t know.”

Gonzalez spoke at last week’s 9th annual meeting of the Global Agenda on Sustainable Livestock (GASL), at Kansas State University.

Besides being the first time the GASL meeting took place in the United States, it was also the first time trade issues were part of the formal agenda.

“Sustainability should go hand in hand with negotiation,” Gonzalez explained, adding that transparency and consumer education is also important. “Some car companies have said they won’t use leather because they don’t want to support an industry that’s not sustainable. They don’t realize they’re hurting farmers who are trying to produce in more sustainable ways.”

Trade is essential to sustainable outcomes, according to Jason Hafemeister, U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service.

“We have to produce more with less,” Hafemeister said, but warned that if productivity is driven by something other than consumer preferences, it can be captured by special interests.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week ended up steady to $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $99-$100/cwt., and steady to as much as $5 lower in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $100-$102. Dressed trade was $3-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $160. It was $7-$10 lower in Nebraska at $155-$160.

Week to week on Monday, the 5-area direct average steer price was $1.66 lower on a live basis at $100.07/cwt. It was $6.66 less in the beef at $159.17.

Light trade, last week’s lower cash prices and the stronger dollar all helped dampen interest in Cattle futures Monday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 51¢ lower.

Except for 5¢ higher in spot Sep, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 26¢ lower Monday afternoon at $220.62/cwt. Select was $2.03 lower at $196.57.

Although they closed off of session highs, Corn and Soybeans continued higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, with worries that sharply higher oil prices could slow the global economy.

Oil prices shot higher after the weekend attack on Saudi Arabian oil fields. Some estimates put the temporary lost oil production at approximately 5-6 million barrels per day.

Through the front three contracts, crude oil futures (WTI-CME) were up an average of $7.78; up and average of $7.03 through the front six contracts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 142 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 23 points.

*******************************

China has a growing appetite for beef, although they’re not getting much from the U.S.

“Projections for 2019 show China importing 18.7% of global beef imports,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Along with another 6.1% of imports into Hong Kong, the China/Hong Kong region currently accounts for a 24.8% share of world beef imports.”

For comparison, Peel says China accounted for 8.7% of world beef imports in 2015; 13.1%, including Hong Kong. For broader context, total world beef imports increased by 17.7% in the five years from 2015 to projected 2019 totals. During that period, beef imports in China increased 153.4%; a 62.2% increase for Hong Kong.

“The rapid growth in Chinese beef imports has dramatically altered global beef flows with several countries now exporting a significant share of total exports to China,” Peel explains. “China receives the majority of beef imports from Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand. 

There are a number of reasons the U.S. has yet to become a key beef provider to China, despite gaining access in 2017.

For one thing, Peel says the market for higher quality, more expensive U.S. beef needs to be developed, a lengthy and arduous process currently curtailed by the trade war between the two nations.

“Restrictions on production technology allowed in beef exported to China (implants, beta agonists, etc.) mean that the supply of U.S. beef available for the Chinese market is limited,” Peel explains. “The U.S. is currently caught in a chicken and egg situation of not having much supply for the Chinese market and not having enough market potential to warrant increased production to meet Chinese demand. Nevertheless, it is important for the U.S. to participate in the growing Chinese beef market. At current levels, if the U.S. could achieve a 10% market share of Chinese beef imports, it would add over 11% to total U.S. beef exports.”

Despite last week’s rally in Cattle futures, negotiated cash fed cattle prices continued under pressure from available supplies and the continued bottleneck in fed cattle harvest capacity left from the Tyson fire.

Through Friday afternoon, USDA reported negotiated prices in the Texas Panhandle $1 lower at $99. 

Week to week through Thursday afternoon, on lighter trade, the Five Area direct average steer price was $2.82 lower at $99.49/cwt. on a live basis.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to marginally lower Friday as traders likely took some profits from the week’s strong gains.

Except for an  average of 32¢ higher in the back two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 30¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from 35¢ lower to 32¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Select and higher on Choice, with moderate to good demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ higher Friday afternoon at $220.88/cwt. Select was unchanged at $198.60.

Corn and Soybean futures manly tread water Friday on likely week-end profit taking.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ higher across the front half of the board and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher across the front half of the board and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

*******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed and little changed Friday, with probably position squaring offsetting continued optimism over a trade resolution between the U.S. and China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 17 points.

*******************************

Sustainability may not be a deal breaker for consumers, but it can be a tie breaker, according to recent research from the NPD Group.

“Marketers need to understand that sustainability can be a deciding factor for consumers,” says Darren Seifer, food and beverage industry analyst for NPD Group (NPD). “While concerns like taste, convenience, health, and affordability are still primary factors for choosing foods and beverages, a company’s sustainability efforts can be the tie breaker if all other factors are equal.”

According to NPD, 9% of adults consider the environment as a top factor when making food and beverage purchase decisions. Young adults, ages 18-44 years old, are most likely to feel this way.

That adds some quantification to the quest in recent years by grocers, food manufacturers and restaurant operators to initiate sustainability efforts as socially responsible corporate citizens and to support consumer interests.

Among NPD’s findings:

One in ten U.S. adults, or roughly 20 million consumers, said that they have switched to a different food or beverage brand because it had earth-friendly packaging.

Over half of adults who ordered restaurant take-out or delivery in the past 30 days report that the restaurant they ordered from had earth-friendly practices, like using food containers made from recycled materials, according to NPD’s  Health Aspirations & Behavioral Tracking Service.