WLI

Cattle futures broke higher Friday buoyed by stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and a boost in wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average $3.58 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.91 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.63 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $12.63 higher ($9.92 higher at the front to $13.98 higher at the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $232/cwt.; price the previous week was $229.

Trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in the North. Based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $232 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $230-$232. Dressed delivered prices were $360, which was $4 higher in Nebraska and steady to $4 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.52 higher Friday afternoon at $349.97/cwt. Select was $4.54 higher at $346.92. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.24 lower, but Select was $3.12 higher.

The grain complex continued lower on Friday, pressured by technical selling and favorable South American weather.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 2¢ lower through Aug ’27. Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed unchanged to fractionally mixed.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 319 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher, but the NASDAQ was down 6 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 10¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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As the new year gets underway, here’s some perspective on cattle prices year over year the last week of December:

• The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $30.92 more (15.6%) year over year at $229.33/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $49.48 more (16.1%) at $356.53. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $87.60 (33.6%) higher at $348.65.
• Prices for Medium and Large #1 feeder steers weighing 600-700 lbs. were significantly higher, based on USDA’s weekly stocker summary. The average price the last week of December was $108.98 higher in the North Central region at $413/cwt., $107.77 higher in the South Central region at $392.28 and $94.77 higher in the Southeast at $363.32. That represented an increase of 35-38%.
• Although wholesale beef values never found seasonal holiday spark, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $36.54 higher (11.4%) year over year at $356.12/cwt., while Select was $58.58 higher (20.3%) at $347.46. The Choice-Select spread was $8.66, which was $22.04 less (-71.8%).
• Retail beef prices continued to surge higher. Based on November data — the most recent available data from USDA — Choice retail value was $1.76 higher (21.2%) year over year at $10.08 per pound. The all fresh retail beef value was $1.34 higher (16.6%) at $9.40.
• Along with extraordinary consumer beef demand, declining cattle numbers and beef production explain the price increases. Year to date, through Dec. 26, estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-6.8%) less. Estimated total beef production of 25.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.0%).

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday amid light holiday-trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.02 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $229/cwt. in Kansas, $230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $356 in Nebraska and $356-$358 in the western Corn.  

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $347.45/cwt. Select was 78¢ lower at $342.38.

The grain complex continued mainly lower on Wednesday, led by Soybeans.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 11¢ to 15¢ lower on expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil and continued wonderment about the trade deal with China.

Corn futures were fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday on likely year-end profit taking and positioning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 303 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower, and the NASDAQ was down 177 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 48¢ to 54¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained on Tuesday, led once again by Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average $1.73 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.88 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $229/cwt. in Kansas, $230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $356 in Nebraska and $356-$358 in the western Corn. 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $348.20/cwt. Select was $2.46 lower at $343.16.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday with the positive outlook for a bumper crop in Brazil and year-end positioning.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 94 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower, and the NASDAQ was down 55 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 6¢ to 13¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mainly higher Monday, led by Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average 47¢ higher, except for an average of 43¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.07 higher (47¢ higher at the back to $1.55 higher near the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229, $2 higher in Nebraska at $230 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $228-$230.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at mainly $356 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $356-$360 on a light test.  

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $1.36 higher at $229.33/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 59¢ lower at $356.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.88 lower Monday afternoon at $349.33/cwt. Select was $1.82 higher at $345.62.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Monday with little news, other than reportedly positive progress in resolving the Ukraine-Russia fighting and South America’s looming harvest.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday on likely year-end profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 209 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points lower, and the NASDAQ was down 118 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 99¢ to $1.09 higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite extraordinary volatility in the fourth quarter, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out prices recovered from the steep sell-off and are ending  the year higher for the third consecutive time.

Peel provides some of his expectations for 2026, in his weekly market comments:

Higher feeder and fed cattle prices“Seven years of declining calf crops, culminating in the 2025 calf crop at the lowest level since 1941, and limited signs of heifer retention mean the feeder cattle supplies will be tighter going into 2026 and may tighten even more during the year if heifer retention picks up,” Peel says.

Prices advancing more slowly“Feeder and fed cattle prices, though expected to increase, are likely to increase relatively less in 2026 compared to 2025,” Peel says. “In 2025, feeder cattle prices increased roughly 25-35%, while fed cattle prices increased 15-20%. Both feeder and fed prices are likely to see prices increase in the range of 5-15% in 2026.”

Continued volatility“Unfortunately, volatility is likely to continue to be a risk for cattle producers,” Peel says. “The big fourth quarter 2025 correction should remove the tendency for a market or technical correction for quite some time, but external sources of uncertainty are likely to continue injecting volatility into cattle markets going forward. With cattle and beef markets continuing to be a focus of political scrutiny, markets are subject to additional political rhetoric and meddling.”

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, supported by firm negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures  closed an average of $1.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of $1.54 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.95 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ higher, except for an average of 67¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $230, and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $229.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $356. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.41 lower Friday afternoon at $351.21/cwt. Select was $1.95 lower at $343.80.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the holiday-shortened week of 429,000 head was 158,000 head fewer than the previous week and 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 2.1. million head fewer (-6.8%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 25.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.0%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower in the front three contracts and then mostly fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closedmostly unchanged to fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial closed little changed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 20 points. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower, and the NASDAQ closed 20 points lower.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.41 to $1.61 lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef packing capacity utilization will continue to be less than historical norms, despite Tyson closing its plant at Lexington, Neb., and halving production at its Amarillo, Texas facility, according to Terrain’s recent outlook for the first quarter of 2026.

Terrain estimates the Tyson transitions will eventually reduce U.S. slaughter capacity by about 6.6%.

“However, slaughter plant capacity utilization is still nearly 6% behind historical norms, as the number of cattle is still well short of filling available slaughter capacity,” explains Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst. “I expect utilization to decline by about 2% during 2026 when two new plants in Nebraska and Missouri complete their startups. A proposed plant in the Panhandle of Texas that would handle 6,000 head per day has the potential to lower utilization rates back to early-2025 levels if completed. Even without additional future slaughter capacity, utilization rates will remain low; fed cattle numbers are expected to decline during the next two to three years because of cow-calf producers’ beef cow herd expansion efforts.”

In the meantime, Weaber says reduced fed slaughter packing capacity will help the remaining plants run more volume, improving efficiency by spreading fixed and semi-variable costs across more head and pounds of beef. He explains increased operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and compete more for the available cattle.

“Even with a 2% shift in leverage (fed cattle price to comprehensive cutout) to the packers’ favor, I expect the choice cutout to average between $375/cwt. and $385/cwt., and fed cattle prices to average between $234/cwt. and $238/cwt. in the first quarter,” Weaber says.