WLI

So much for Friday’s reprieve in the futures market, Cattle futures sank on Monday, along with other commodities and equities as traders digested news that China was increasing tariffs on U.S. products in retaliation for the added levies imposed by the U.S. last week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.81 lower (85¢ lower at the back to $2.70 lower in spot Jun).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.11 lower.

Wholesale beef values were firm to higher on moderate to good demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 47¢ higher Monday afternoon at $221.58/cwt. Select was $1.43 higher at $208.89.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher through Jul ’20 and then mostly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday on China’s retaliation to additional tariffs levied by the U.S. late last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 617 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 69 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 269 points.

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Although U.S. pork exports continue to bear the brunt of ongoing trade issues between the U.S. and other countries, those issues are impacting U.S. beef exports, too.

Beef exports in March of 107,655 metric tons (mt) were 4% less year-over-year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Value was 2% less at $678 million.

For the first quarter, exports were down 3% at 307,306 mt valued at $1.9 billion (down 0.8%).

For perspective, U.S. pork exports of 211,688 mt were 7% less year over year in March and export value was 15% less at $520.7 million. For the first quarter, pork exports were 6% less than last year for volume and 14% less in value at $1.47 billion.

U.S. beef export value per head of fed slaughter for the first quarter was $309.32, which was 2% less than the same quarter last year.

South Korea continues to be the growth leader for U.S. beef exports, according to USMEF. First-quarter exports to South Korea were 8% more year over year at 56,173 mt. Export value of $414.2 million was 13% above last year’s record-shattering pace.

First-quarter exports to Japan were higher year over year for both tonnage and value, but were less in March.

“U.S. beef cuts are still subject to a 38.5% tariff in Japan while our competitors’ rate is nearly one-third lower at 26.6%,” explained Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “This really underscores the urgency of the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, which must progress quickly if we are going to continue to have success in the leading value market for U.S. beef and pork.”

Japan’s tariffs on beef variety meat are lower, but U.S. shipments are subject to a duty of 12.8% while competitors pay less than half that rate.

Maybe Cattle futures finally found a bottom to the recent selloff as short covering and positioning helped spur a rally late Friday.

Other than 50¢ higher in spot Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.87 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.45 higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and firm on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.36 lower Friday afternoon at $221.11/cwt. Select was 38¢ higher at $207.46.

Apparently, much of the bearish news in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below) was already priced into the market, given the muted reaction in futures markets.

Other than 1¢ to 2¢ lower in the front three contracts, Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower through May ’20 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

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So much for fundamentals; chatter about on-again, off-again trade talks with China continued to whipsaw equity markets Friday, to the upside this time. Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on reports that talks with China were constructive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 114 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.

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Although cash fed cattle prices continue to soften, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service project slightly higher prices year over year— $118.50/cwt.—compared to $117.12 last year. In the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), prices are forecast at $121 in the second quarter, $113 in the third quarter and $114 in the fourth quarter.

That’s with an estimated 27.27 billion lbs. of beef production, which would be 397 million lbs. more than last year.

Estimates for grain prices were significantly less bullish.

Corn

ERS projects the 2019-20 season-average farm price for corn 20¢ lower at $3.30/bu., the lowest since 2006-07.

Even with current planting wonderments, ERS forecasts this year’s corn crop at 15.0 billion bu. (yield of 176.0 bu./acre), which would be the second largest on record. Ending corn stocks for 2019-20 are projected to be 390 million bu. more than last year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.9%, which would be the highest since 2005-06.

Soybeans

WASDE projects the 2019-20 U.S. season-average soybean price at $8.10/bu., down 45¢ from the previous year. Soybean meal prices are projected $15 less than the previous year at $290/short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected 1.5¢ higher at 29.5¢/lb.

“With sharply higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 5,165 million bu., up 3% from 2018-19,” say ERS analysts.

Wheat

“The projected season-average farm price for wheat is $4.70/bu., down from last year’s estimated $5.20 on the expectation of greater export competition and lower U.S. corn prices.”

The growing likelihood that the U.S. would impose increased and expanded tariffs on Chinese imports Friday morning cast a pall over equity and futures markets Thursday. However, late session buying capped losses in Cattle futures.

Other than 87¢ and 20¢ higher in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 37¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were weak on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $222.47/cwt. Select was 41¢ lower at $207.08.

Grain futures fell hard, presumably pressured by the aforementioned trade news, as well as defensiveness ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 8¢ to 11¢ lower through the front five contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ lower through Aug ’20 and then mostly 6¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, with the White House apparently ready to increase tariffs on Chinese imports Friday morning. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

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It’s no secret that the average age of agricultural producers continues to increase.

For instance, the average age of all U.S. farm producers in 2017 was 57.5 years, according to the 2017 Census of Agriculture. That was up 1.2 years from 2012. Only 8% of producers were younger than 35 years old; 34% were more than 65 years old.

Often missed in the conversation, though, is the fact that the average age of farm laborers is increasing, too, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“Over the past decade, the average age of hired farm laborers (excluding managers, supervisors, and other supporting occupations) has risen steadily, from age 35.8 years in 2006 to 38.8 years in 2017, an increase of 8%,” according to a recent Amber Waves article by ERS economist, Thomas Hertz. “This increase has been entirely driven by the aging of foreign-born farm laborers, who comprised between 54% and 58% of the workforce over this period. Their average age rose from 35.7 in 2006 to 41.6 in 2017, an increase of 16%. In contrast, the average age of farm laborers born in the United States (including Puerto Rico) has remained roughly constant.”

Hertz explains the reduced flow of new immigrants since 2008 is the main reason age is increasing for the foreign-born farm laborer population.

“This diminishing flow is reflected in an increase in the average number of years since these workers’ original immigration, from 12.4 years in 2007 to 18.6 years in 2017,” Hertz says. “It is also reflected in a decline in the estimated numbers of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico who are in the country (counting all such people, not just farmworkers), which fell by about 22% between 2007 and 2016, according to the latest estimates from the Pew Research Center.

Incidentally, between 2006 and 2017, the share of female farm laborers increased  from 19.5% to 25.0%, according to Hertz.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $2-$3 lower in the Southern Plains Tuesday at $120/cwt., with slow trade and light to moderate demand.

Apparently, prices finally fell enough and conditions were oversold enough for buyers to get back on the long side of Cattle futures. That was despite sharply negative outside markets, tied to the lack of a trade resolution with China.

Except for unchanged in spot Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $223.87/cwt. Select was $2.15 lower at $211.83.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Except for a few cents higher in the back contracts, Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally mixed to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices plunged on Tuesday, with reports attributed to the U.S. Trade Representative that the U.S. will increase tariffs on Chinese imports this Friday, as suggested by President Trump over the weekend. Whether gamesmanship or reality, traders ran for cover. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 473 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 48 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 159 points.

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Producer sentiment plunged last month, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer diving 18 points to 115 points, month to month in April. That’s the fourth largest one-month drop since data collection began in October 2015.

Worsening perceptions of both current economic conditions and weaker expectations for the future drove the decline. The Index of Current Conditions fell 21 points to a reading of 99, and the Index of Future Expectations declined 16 points to a reading of 123.

“Farmers are becoming increasingly anxious over their future financial performance,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers have taken stock of their financial position and prospects for 2019 as they head into planting season and are concerned about the uncertainty arising from the ongoing trade disputes with key ag trading partners. Right now it seems that producers are being cautious.”

For instance, only 22% of respondents to the April survey believed now was a good time to make large farm investments.

Producers also expressed less optimism for resolution to the ongoing soybean trade dispute with China: only 28% of respondents felt that the dispute would be resolved before July 1, down from 45% in March. However, 71% still feel the dispute will ultimately be resolved in a way that benefits U.S. agriculture.

The Ag Economy Barometer is a sentiment index based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S.