WLI

“Lower cash sales of fed cattle combined with the downward trending futures is causing much uncertainty among cattle feeders,” noted the AMS reporter on hand for Thursday’s sale at Mitchell Livestock Auction in South Dakota.

Apparently, technical pressure, borne by recent bearishness was behind the hard drop in Feeder Cattle futures, which pressured Live Cattle in turn. It didn’t help that early support in Lean Hog futures faded through the session.

Net U.S. pork sales for Apr. 19-25 of 16,100 metric tons (mt) were 4% less than the previous week and 59% less than the prior four-week average, according to the Weekly Export Sales report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Beef exports continued softer, as well. Net export sales of U.S. beef (10,600 mt) were down 54% from the previous week and 50% lower than the prior four-week average.

Except for 20¢ lower in spot Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.99 lower.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and sharply lower on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 lower Thursday afternoon at $228.80/cwt. Select was $2.42 lower at $215.08.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through near Dec and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢-8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again on Thursday, with follow-through pressure from the Fed’s decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 122 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Incidentally, Beyond Meat, Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND)—a plant-based fake meat company—went public, launching its IPO Thursday at $25 per share. The price soared to $65.75 by the close of the day.

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Demand for speed and convenience continue to shift consumer eating patterns, according to two recent reports from the NPD Group (NPD).

For instance, consumers are including frozen foods in 2% more at-home meals than a decade ago—9.8 billion at-home eating occasions last year.

“Demographic shifts, like Millennials moving into the busiest times of their lives juggling spouses, kids, and a career, are fueling a greater need for the convenience that frozen foods offer,” says David Portalatin, NPD Food Industry Advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Manufacturers are also doing their part in increasing interest in frozen foods by innovating around contemporary food values and emerging flavor trends to provide convenience.”

Likewise, the fast casual restaurant category continues to grow. The definition of fast casual varies, but tends to include restaurants such as Five Guys, Shake Shack and even Starbucks.

Specifically, the number of fast casual chain restaurants rose by 1% to 25,312 total units, based on NPD’s Fall 2018 ReCount® restaurant census, which includes restaurants open as of September 30, 2018. In the year ending February 2019, compared to a year earlier, fast casual customers increased their visits by 3%, while the total quick service restaurant category, under which the fast casual category falls, were up 1%; total U.S.  foodservice traffic remained flat.

The fast casual category is still a relatively small part of the total foodservice industry, according to NPD. Fast casual restaurants represent 8% of total quick service visits, whereas traditional quick service restaurants, represent 75% of traffic.

Through Wednesday afternoon, negotiated cash fed cattle prices were mostly $1-$4 lower than last week on a live basis at: $124/cwt. in Nebraska; $122 in Kansas; $125-$126 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $4-$6 lower at mostly $200.

There were 837 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction; 479 head (four lots) sold for a weighted average price of $122.15/cwt., for delivery at 1-9 days.

A rally in Lean Hog futures helped stem the degree of bleeding in Cattle futures Wednesday.

Except for $1.82 higher in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 42¢ lower.

Except for 7¢ higher in Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 37¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 lower Wednesday afternoon at $230.22/cwt. Select was 71¢ lower at $217.50.

Corn futures closed 3¢-6¢ higher through May ’20 and then mostly 2¢ higher. Presumably, some of the bounce came from weather-delayed planting.

Soybean futures closed 1¢-3¢ lower, extending losses as traders look for wet conditions to ultimately bring in more corn acres.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Wednesday. Much of the pressure was attributed to the Fed standing pat on interest rates. Apparently, traders were looking for a rate cut, given ongoing sub-2% inflation.

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low,” according to an FOMC statement. “Growth of household spending and business fixed investment slowed in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined and are running below 2%. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.”

Pressure came despite the closely watched ADP Employment Report shattering expectations to the upside. That report indicates non-farm, private sector employment increased by 275,000 in April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 45 points.

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Dairy cattle continue to be a significant contributor to the commercial U.S. beef supply, say Brenda Boetel, Extension economist and Jared Geiser, research assistant from the University of Wisconsin-River Falls.

“Despite growing beef cattle inventories since 2014, dairy animals have been a stable source of beef and continue to play a key role in filling U.S. beef demand,” explain Boetel and Geiser, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “In 2018 the dairy sector contributed 5.6 billion lbs. (21.0 %) of beef to the U.S.”

For perspective, they point out total U.S. commercial beef production last year was 26.9 billion lbs., the most since 2002. Beef production between 2002 and 2018 ranged from 23.7 billion lbs. in 2014 to 27.0 billion lbs. in 2002, with dairy animals contributing 22% in 2014 and 18% in 2002.

“The contribution from dairy cattle varies based on the size of the native cattle herd and its contribution to the beef supply, as well as the number of cull dairy cows,” Geiser and Boetel explain. “Finished dairy steers are the largest beef contributor from the dairy industry followed by cull cows and finished heifers.”

There were too few transactions to trend, but early negotiated cash fed cattle prices were sharply lower at $123/cwt. in Kansas on a live basis at $200 dressed in Nebraska.

Cattle futures continued to slide as traders closed out the books for the month and open interest continued to erode.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 82¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.77 lower.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and firm on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.30 lower Tuesday afternoon at $231.84/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $218.21.

Corn futures closed mainly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures continued to slide, closing 4¢-6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Pressure included less earnings than expected from Google’s owner, Alphabet. Support included chatter about headway in trade talks with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 54 points.

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Stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels pushed the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) 0.9% higher in March, compared to the previous month. The monthly composite index was 101.9 in March. It tracks the health and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry. 

Sub-indices of the RPI were higher, as well. The Current Situation Index increased 1.5% to 101.8. It declined the previous three months.

The Expectations Index increased 0.3% to 102.1. “March represented the fourth consecutive increase in the Expectations Index, which propelled the forward-looking component to its highest level in 11 months,” according to the RPI report.

Index values above 100 signal a period of expansion. Values below 100 signal a period of contraction.

Early two-sided trading in Cattle futures gave way to continued pressure from last week, tied to volatility in Lean Hog futures, technicals and growing pessimism about increasing fed cattle supplies during a time that domestic demand appears static, while international demand is a bit softer year over year.

Except for 22¢ higher in spot Apr, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower.

Except for 55¢ higher in spot May, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and lower on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 15¢ higher Monday afternoon at $233.14/cwt. Select was $1.69 lower at $217.72.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 15 points.

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“With the exception of the cull cow market, cattle and beef markets are behaving seasonally with little underlying trend in most markets,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “All and all, we are seeing the most stable cattle and beef markets in many years. Until or unless outside shocks rise up to impact supply or demand conditions, expect cattle and beef markets to remain pretty calm in the coming months.”

Peel points out strong demand for grazing cattle kept calf and stocker prices near a seasonal peak through April. He believes prices are currently at or just past the seasonal peak.

“From a forage perspective, excellent moisture conditions suggest tremendous pasture and hay potential,” Peel says. “The latest Drought Monitor shows the least amount of dry conditions across the country since the Drought Monitor began in 2000. The upcoming May Crop Production report from USDA-NASS will likely show that May 1 hay stocks are low following reduced December 1 hay stocks and cold, wet conditions affecting cattle production this past winter. However, good hay production prospects for 2019 alleviate much of the concern about end of crop year stock levels as the 2019 hay crop year begins.”

When all was said done last week, negotiated cash fed cattle prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $126/cwt., but $2-$3 less in the north at $125-$127 in Nebraska and $128 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $2-$3 lower at mostly $205 in Nebraska and mostly $205-$206 in the western Corn Belt.

Cattle futures edged mostly lower Friday, but apparent short covering and positioning helped staunch the downward momentum of the previous two sessions.

Except for 50¢ higher in spot Apr, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ lower.

Except for 40¢ higher in spot May and an average of 7¢ higher in the back two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 41¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 6¢ higher Friday afternoon at $232.99/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $219.41.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Friday, buoyed by estimated GDP growth in the first quarter, which was more than expected.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 3.2% in the first quarter of this year, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 27 points.

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“I am optimistic that live and feeder markets will offer some correction to the sharp moves down, possibly if we see strong seasonal cattle and beef movements. But, the stronger than expected cattle market story might be over,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

Although carcass weights continue lower than last year, at least for a while yet, and wholesale beef values appear ready for a seasonal surge, increasing cattle supplies will continue to weigh on prices through the summer.

“The inventory of market-ready cattle, as proxied by the calculated cattle on feed over 120 days, are nothing short of enormous,” Koontz says. “Orderly and aggressive marketings through the remainder of April, May, and June are essential.”