WLI

News that Canada will join the U.S. and Mexico and a new North American trade agreement—the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)— fueled optimism in commodity and equity markets to start the week.

Between the news, firmer wholesale beef values and last week’s steady negotiated cash fed cattle trade, Cattle futures moved higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 34¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.24 higher (47¢ to $1.52 higher).

Wholesale beef values were higher on fairly good demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.20 higher Monday afternoon at $205.08/cwt. Select was $1.19 higher at $194.63.

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Major U.S. financial indices mostly surged higher Monday with the late weekend news about the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (see below). CME Crude Oil futures (WTI) closed $2.05 to $2.19/bbl. higher through the next 12 months. Spot Nov closed $6.62 higher than two weeks ago at $75.30.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 192 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 9 points.

Regarding announcement of a United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue issued the following statement:

“The new USMCA deal is important for our economy as a whole, including the agricultural sector, which counts Canada and Mexico in our top three trading partners. I have long said that I believe our country is located in the best neighborhood on Earth – North America – with valuable allies to our north and south. We have secured greater access to these vital markets and will maintain and improve the highly productive integrated agricultural relationship we have as nations. Notably, as one of the President’s top goals, this deal eliminates Canada’s unfair ‘Class 7’ milk pricing scheme, cracks open additional access to U.S. dairy into Canada, and imposes new disciplines on Canada’s supply management system. The agreement also preserves and expands critical access for U.S. poultry and egg producers and addresses Canada’s discriminatory wheat grading process to help U.S. wheat growers along the border become more competitive.”

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“Numerous factors will affect the likelihood of a seasonal stocker calf price low in the next month,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Supplies will grow as feeder volumes increase to a seasonal peak by early to mid-November. With the larger 2018 calf crop, the fall run of calves is expected to exceed last year. However, demand for wheat pasture stockers may partially or totally offset increased stocker calf supplies. 

“I really don’t expect much more increase in stocker prices, but additional increases are possible in the next couple of weeks. As we move through October into November, feeder prices are likely to stabilize or perhaps move lower, but the seasonal low may be quite muted.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mainly steady with the previous week at $110-$111/cwt. on a live basis and mostly $174 in the beef.

Cattle futures closed little changed Friday but mostly to the upside.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ higher.

Except for 95¢ lower in newly minted away Sep, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 59¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and higher on Select, with light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ lower Friday afternoon at $203.88/cwt. Select was 88¢ higher at $193.44.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday as investors squared the books for the week, month and quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 18 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

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Heading into fall, availability of winter wheat pasture looks to be well above normal, say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), noting the planting pace is ahead of last year and the 5-year average.

“Early planting and quick germination will grant cattle earlier access to those fields and allow for longer grazing without sacrificing harvesting wheat for grain,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

In fact, there likely will be the most cattle grazing wheat pasture since 2007 in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, according to LMIC. Analysts there say the number of winter-grazing cattle in those three states averaged about 2.1 million head over the last 18 years (based on Jan. 1 numbers). There were 1.50 million head last year, the least since 2013.

“As of Jan. 1, 2019, the 3-state total could be 1.8 to 2.0 million head,” AMS analysts say. “At that midpoint (1.9 million head), it would indicate the number of head winter grazing has increased from the prior year by 400,000 head (up 27%). That number would go a long way in absorbing the growth in this year’s national calf crop, but it may also bunch-up sales of short yearling animals coming off those pastures as early as mid-February.”

Dressed beef sales trended $1 lower in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon at $174/cwt. Live sales in those regions thus far are near steady to steady at $110.00-$110.50.

Cattle futures recovered from the worst of the early pressure Thursday, closing lower but still within the recently established higher, narrow channel.

Other than 12¢ higher at the back of the board, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ lower.

Other than 25¢ higher in expiring Sep, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ lower, amid extremely light trade.

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $204.71/cwt. Select was 39¢ lower at $192.56.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday. Support included tech stocks like Apple and Amazon, as well as Crude Oil futures continuing to edge higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

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“Despite more cattle on feed, the market price of finished cattle remains strong and continues to outperform year-ago prices,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his most recent market comments. “Cattle feeders continue to fill pens and the strong feeder cattle prices demonstrate how much cattle feeders want to purchase cattle. It would appear cattle feeders are expecting finished cattle prices to remain strong in the near term and escalate moving into 2019. This thought process may not be as wild as many think it is as beef demand remains strong, which supports prices. Does this mean finished cattle prices will only escalate through the end of the year? One should probably not be so bold at this juncture, but the market does appear to be holding its own plus some at this time.”

For demand perspective, Griffith notes the retail value for Choice beef in August was the highest since July of last year at 608.2¢/lb.

There were only 242 head offered and no takers in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction.

Cattle futures continued to firm Wednesday, closing higher on reportedly increased commercial interest.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 higher through the front four contracts and then an average of 74¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.28 higher (42¢ to $1.82 higher).

Wholesale beef values were lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 88¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $204.85/cwt. Select was $1.92 lower at $192.95.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Many attributed the lion’s share of pressure to remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating the Fed didn’t foresee inflation surprising to the upside, i.e. less growth in interest rates over the long haul. That dampened bank stocks. Powell’s remarks came following the Fed’s decision to raise the federal funds rate for the third time this year to 2.00 to 2.25%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 17 points.

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A day following completion of the revised Korea-U.S. Trade agreement, the United State and Japan announced they would begin negotiating a trade pact.

“This is welcome news, since we know that export income is critical to the financial health of agriculture and is a key contributor to rural prosperity,” said Agriculture Secretary, Sonny Perdue. “Japan is an important customer for our agricultural products and we look forward to the great potential this breakthrough represents.”

Earlier this year, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Tran Pacific Partnership (TPP), which includes Japan.

According to a joint statement made by the two nations, President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, affirmed the importance of a strong, stable, and mutually beneficial trade and economic relationship, recognizing that together, the two economies represent approximately 30% of global Gross Domestic Product.