WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices lost ground. Live sales were mainly $1-$2 lower at mostly $114-$115/cwt. ($111-$113 in the western Corn Belt). Dressed trade was steady to $3 lower at $177-$180.

Those lower prices were made possible, in part by the sharp erosion in Cattle futures on Friday. Pressure for the board included faltering wholesale beef values, declining open interest and growing chatter that the top may already be in for beef prices this season.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.21 lower (35¢ to $2.07 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 lower ($1.17 to $2.47 lower).

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 87¢ lower Friday afternoon at $215.20/cwt. Select was 39¢ lower at $198.72.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, with weakness widely attributed to concerns about slowing global economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 25 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 123 points.

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“When factoring in slaughter and weights, the grading data continues to indicate larger supplies of Prime and Select beef and a little less Choice than a year ago,” says David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “It looks like steer slaughter is starting to pick up a little, so we might expect growing beef supplies in the coming months, especially when considering more cattle on feed than a year ago.”

For perspective, Anderson explains that for the week ending Oct. 20, 70.8% of cattle (presented for grading) graded Choice, compared to 71.6% for the same week a year earlier. There were 8.9% Prime-grading carcasses, which was 7.1% more than a year earlier. Likewise, 17.4% of carcasses graded Select, compared to 15.3% last year.

Although cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Thursday afternoon, and wholesale beef values were sharply lower, Cattle futures eked out slight gains. Some credited part of the support to the lack of bounce in grain prices, following the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Except for 2¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher.

Except for unchanged in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 22¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.15 lower Thursday afternoon at $216.07/cwt. Select was $2.66 lower at $199.11.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday. Election-based optimism the previous day was tempered by indications the Federal Reserve will continue to increase interest rates, albeit gradually. They left the rate unchanged for the time being.

According to a statement from the FOMC. “The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2% objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

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Estimated beef production for this year was lowered by 30 million lbs. to 26.91 billion lbs., according to the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). For next year, beef production was reduced by 100 million lbs. to 27.81 billion lbs.

The estimated fed steer price for the fourth quarter is projected to be $112-$116/cwt., with an annual average for this year of $116.79, 50¢ more than the previous month’s projection. Fed steer prices for next year are estimated at $118-$126 in the first quarter; $118-$128 in the second quarter; $109-$119 in the third.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon. There were just 310 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction, and no takers.

Despite sharply higher outside markets, Cattle futures continued to erode on Wednesday, led by Feeder Cattle, as traders seem to be concentrating on increased beef supplies down the road, rather than relative snugness through the end of the year.

Other than 67¢ higher in spot Nov, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ lower.

Other than 5¢ lower in spot Nov, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 98¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $218.22/cwt. Select was $2.89 lower at $201.77.

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Major U.S. financial indices bolted ahead Wednesday, with investors apparently cheering the outcome of the mid-term elections.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 545 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 194 points.

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Increasing producer optimism about current and future conditions drove the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sharply higher last month.

Specifically, the October barometer reading of 136 was 22 points higher than September, which was the lowest reading for the survey since 2016.

“We continue to see large month-to-month variations in the barometer readings as a result of swings in major commodity prices and emerging news about trade negotiations with key ag trade partners,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The barometer is based on a survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the country. It’s comprised of two sub-indices: the Index of Current Conditions rose 19 points in October to 115; the Index of Expectations rose 24 points to a reading of 146.

Cattle futures stabilized Tuesday, retaining the previous session’s steep losses, but holding ground. Trade was light with many apparently remaining on the sidelines to see the election results.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed (37¢ lower to 20¢ higher).

Other than 47¢ and 17¢ higher in the front two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and sharply higher on Select, with moderate to good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 17¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $218.76/cwt. Select was $2.31 higher at $204.66.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with investors awaiting the outcome of mid-term elections.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 47 points.

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“Yearling cattle ready for the feedlot remain in strong demand and will likely do so through the end of the year and into 2019,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

As for calves, Griffith says it’s reasonable to assume that prices will decline another 2-3% in November.

“The slaughter cow market further exacerbates the situation,” Griffith explains. “Good-conditioned slaughter cows weighing 1,300 lbs. would have resulted in about $560 per head this week based on weekly auction averages (TN), which is about $120 per head lower than what the same cows averaged in September. These value losses are sometimes phantom losses because many producers do not consider what could have been attained during a different marketing period.”

On the other end of the scale, Griffith points to seasonally higher wholesale beef values, which should provide support to fed cattle.

“Stronger beef prices generally result in packers being willing to pay higher money for finished cattle but they continue to fight with cattle feeders to maintain those strong margins,” Griffith says. “The price increase in wholesale beef was to be expected as holiday buying is underway, but beef demand continues to impress and further support prices.”