WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far, this week, FOB live prices are $4-$6 lower in Nebraska at $236/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$238. Dressed delivered prices are $4 lower at $376.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235.00/cwt. in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.92 higher Thursday afternoon at $393.79. Select was $1.85 higher at $374.59.

Futures markets were closed Thursday.

Through midday Friday, Cattle futures were trading higher, supported by strong wholesale beef values and perhaps positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the source, estimates ahead of the report pegged May placements at about 6% less year over year, May marketings at 10% less and the June 1 feedlot inventory at about 1% less.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

In the grain complex, also through midsession Friday, Corn futures were trading mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ’26. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’26.

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Equity markets were closed Thursday. Major U.S. financial indices were mixed through midday Friday. At the time, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 14¢ to 30¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Federally inspected cattle slaughter declined month to month in May for the first time since the data series began in 1970, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the June Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Slaughter typically increases in the spring months leading up to grilling season

“Further, this was unexpected because the number of cattle on feed over 150 days was above volumes a year ago at the beginning of March, April, and May,” ERS analysts explain. “Upon reviewing slaughter data through mid-June, it appears that the pace may stay relatively flat month over month, which would also be a divergent trend.”

Although wholesale beef values have increased seasonally at a faster pace than usual, ERS analysts say fed cattle prices have risen comparatively more, keeping the pressure on packer margins.

“Specifically, from the first week of April to the second week of June, comprehensive boxed beef prices have climbed 9% compared to 13% for slaughter steer prices in the five-area marketing region over the same period,” ERS analysts say. “Weekly slaughter steer prices in the five-area marketing region have been climbing so rapidly that eight consecutive records have been established with the week ending June 15.”

Cattle futures were mainly firmer Wednesday. Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher, except for an average of 55¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 60¢ higher, except for an average of 95¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on good demand in the North to mostly inactive elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $4-$6 lower in Nebraska at $236/cwt. and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$237. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $376-$378 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $376.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235.00/cwt. in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.36 higher Wednesday afternoon at $388.87. Select was 20¢ higher at $372.74.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 22¢ to 23¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Wednesday.

Key news for the day included the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

“Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” according to the FOMC statement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 44 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 3¢ to 25¢ lower through the front six contracts after 27¢ higher in spot Jly.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the projected average feeder steer price for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month, in the June Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Forecast prices increased $4 in the third quarter to $306/cwt. and $2 in the fourth quarter to $308. However, the second-quarter estimate decreased $9 to $301. The projected annual price is $297.78 for this year and $306.25 for 2026. Prices are basis a 750-800 lbs. Medium and Large #1 steer selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts note this class and weight of steers averaged just over $272/cwt. at Oklahoma National Stockyards during the first 11 weeks of the year and almost $296 since then. However, they say lower auction volumes some weeks due to inclement weather add challenge to identifying price trends.

“After Memorial Day, early June sale prices showed resilient demand for feeder steers, which is likely on the back of plentiful rains in the Southern Plains, improving grazing conditions,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased projected fed steer prices for the remainder of this year in June’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Based on recent price strength and continued demand for cattle, ERS increased the forecast five-area direct fed steer price $9-$10 higher than the previous month. Prices were projected at $217/cwt. in the second quarter, $226 in the third quarter and $229 in the fourth quarter. The annual average price increased $7 to $221.51.

That was with this year’s beef production projected to be 65 million pounds less than the previous month’s forecast at 26.4 billion pounds, based on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Production would be 626 million pounds less (-2.3%) than the previous year.

For next year, the ERS projected the first-quarter price to be $227 and the annual average price to be $229.

Cattle futures sold sharply lower Tuesday with technical pressure and worries, more bearish outside markets and worries about the potential impact stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $3.51 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.89 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235.00/cwt. in the Southern Plains,  $240-$242 in Nebraska and $240-$241 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.40 higher Tuesday afternoon at $386.51. Select was $5.07 higher at $372.54.

Grain and Soybean futures were mainly higher Tuesday.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher through new-crop contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower in spot Jly and then 3¢ to 4¢ higher through near Mar.

Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher through near Mar.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with renewed concerns about the fighting between Israel and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 180 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.74 to $3.12 higher through the front six contracts.

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Meat is having a moment, says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, pointing to elevated consumer demand and retail prices for red meat protein.

“Per the Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) project (beef and pork checkoff-supported, based at Kansas State University), there is an upward trend in self-declared rates of being a meat consumer (versus Vegan or Vegetarian),” Tonsor explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Further, when it comes to influencing protein purchasing decisions, aspects such as Taste and Freshness have been growing for the typical U.S. resident relative to considerations such as Environmental Impact and Origin/Traceability. This is important to appreciate as stakeholders throughout the industry make production, marketing, and promotion decisions.”

In a related Farm Journal report with Tyne Morgan, Tonsor points to three drivers helping boost demand: increased consumption of red meat as a meal ingredient rather than only a center of the plate entree; physically active younger generations; the number of consumers utilizing new weight- loss drugs that promote more protein consumption.

Plus, Tonsor says consumers today appear more willing to continue paying more for the protein of their choice, rather than consuming less and substituting with cheaper alternatives.

“Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, largely tied to trade discussions and possible implications for realized inflation and/or unemployment domestically, presents itself as the largest headwind against an otherwise supportive consumer demand situation,” Tonsor says. “There continue to be MDM based signals that food service demand is softer, likely reflecting household budget-driven behavior change. As the 2025 grilling season gets in full swing, perhaps bolstering retail meat demand, both the macroeconomic situation and the inner-industry developments in response are key to watch.”

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, gaining back much of the lost gains from the previous session, as wholesale beef values increased and outside markets rebounded from skittishness tied to the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.72 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.89 higher.

There was no Monday afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time. Based on the latest report, FOB live prices last week were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $235/cwt., mostly steady in Kansas at mainly $235, steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $240-$242 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $240-$241. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $380.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $2.06 higher at $238.68. The dressed delivered steer price was 28¢ lower at 380.06.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.23 higher Monday afternoon at $382.11. Select was $3.97 higher at $367.47.

Turning to row crops, futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower with pressure from recent rains and favorable weather. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower.

However, Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ higher, extending gains from Fridays EPA announcement proposing increased Renewable Volume Obligations for biomass-based diesel in the Renewable Fuels Standard.

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Major U.S. financial indices pared losses from the previous session with lower Crude Oil futures and optimism for a resolution to the fighting between Israel and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 294 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 40¢ to $1.49 lower through the front six contracts.

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Based on various data, including forage conditions, the nation’s beef cow herd may be at the threshold of expansion, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Though there is no data confirmation yet, it seems likely that heifer retention may be underway in several areas including the Southern Plains and points east,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. ‘However, it is doubtful that much aggressive restocking or herd rebuilding is in progress in several major beef cow states from Nebraska north and west. In total it is likely to still be a slow pace of herd rebuilding.”

At the very least, Peel says it looks more likely the 27.9 million beef cows at the beginning of this year was the cyclical low.

“Although the inventory of bred heifers was record low, beef cow slaughter is down 16.2% for the first 21 weeks of the year, indicating a low level of cow culling that might allow for a fractional increase in the beef cow herd this year,” Peel says.

Further, Peel points out that Jan. 1 beef cow inventories were unchanged or slightly higher year over year in seven of the 10 largest beef cow states. He adds beef replacement heifer inventories at the beginning of the year were unchanged or higher in eight of those states.

Although forage conditions continue to be a limiting factor in some areas, Peel says, “It would appear that a number of major beef cow states are interested in herd rebuilding.”

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday, with correction, pressure from lower outside markets and week-end positioning.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $3.10 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.86 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.28 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.97 lower during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to limited on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $235/cwt., mostly steady in Kansas at mainly $235, steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $240-$242 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $240-$241. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.16 higher Friday afternoon at $377.88. Select was 43¢ higher at $363.50. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $12.80 higher and Select was $6.77 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 558,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the previous week and 57,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 13.5 million head was 893,000 head fewer (-6.2%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date beef production of 11.7 billion pounds was 354.5 million pounds less (-2.9%).

Turning to row crops, Soybean futures led the grain complex higher Friday, fueled by the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations for biomass-based diesel in the Renewable Fuels Standard.

Soybean futures closed mostly 20¢ to 28¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 15¢ to 18¢ higher. Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices sagged Friday beneath the weight of worries caused by increased fighting between Israel and Iran, as well as the related spike higher in Crude Oil futures.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 769 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 68 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 255 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $3.09 to $4.94 higher through the front six contracts.

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Reduced packer production, seasonal strength and resilient consumer beef demand continue pushing wholesale beef values to new record-high levels.

Choice boxed beef cutout is $34/cwt. higher than the beginning of May and $60 higher year over year, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

“Packers have been forced to keep pushing wholesale beef prices higher, but the consumer has not demonstrated much resistance to such price increases despite beef production remaining similar to year-ago levels,” Griffith explains. “There will come a day when beef production declines relative to the previous year, which should push beef prices higher from a theoretical standpoint. The question is if prices will actually push higher, and if so, how high will they go when beef production declines?”