WLI

Cattle futures rose Monday, building on the previous session’s firmer tone, following last week’s rout.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 97¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.45 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $206/cwt. in the Southern Plains $208 in Nebraska and $205-$208 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $328.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.52 lower at $207.05/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was $2.09 lower at $326.98.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 higher Monday afternoon at $323.50/cwt. Select was $1.02 higher at $313.92.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher with likely betting on bullish adjustments in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates due out Tuesday.

However, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower and Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 167 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 190 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.19 to $1.47 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Cow culling will determine herd dynamics in 2025,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “It depends both on what producers are trying to do and what Mother Nature will let them do – drought is still a large threat.”

Moreover, Peel explains heifer retention this year can set the stage for herd expansion beginning ion 2026.

“The inventory of replacement heifers suggests that there are few plans for increased heifer breeding going into 2025, but impulse heifer breeding during the year may result in additional bred heifers for 2026,” Peel says.  “As with cow culling, it will depend on what producers are trying to do and whether drought limits those plans.”

Given that the pool of bred heifers was 1.7% less year over year Jan. 1, Peel explains cow slaughter will have to decrease at least 7% year over year to hold the beef cow inventory stable.

Cattle futures stabilized Friday, following a week of losses driven by opening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle, discovery of a new bird flu train in dairy cattle, packer-announced production cuts for the coming week and lower cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ higher, except for unchanged in near Apr.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.82 lower ($3.17 lower at the back to $5.52 lower toward the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 23¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $8.04 lower ($5.87 lower toward the back to $10.82 lower in spot Mar).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.  

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $206/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $208 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $205-$208. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $328.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.11 lower Friday afternoon at $321.87/cwt. Select was $1.87 lower at $312.90.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.81 lower and Select was $4.17 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 584,000 head was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.3 million head was 304,000 head fewer (-8.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 2.8 billion pounds was 124.3 million pounds less (-4.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on likely profit taking and weekend position squaring.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. However, they closed an average of 6’4¢ higher week to week through the front six contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower on Friday.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by inflation worries tied to potential broader tariffs and stronger employment, as well as declining consumer confidence.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 17¢, to $35.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 444 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 57 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 268 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 35¢ to 39¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. beef industry is poised for another year of strong market performance, driven by tight cattle supplies and robust consumer demand, according to CattleFax analysts at the organization’s Outlook Seminar, held as part of CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas.

As the beef cowherd enters a stabilization phase following years of contraction, they say resulting supply constraints have shifted market leverage decisively in favor of cattle producers.

Kevin Good, vice president of market analysis at CattleFax, explained the U.S. beef cow herd is expected to see the cycle low to start 2025 at 28 million head, 150,000 head below last year and 3.5 million head from the 2019 cycle highs.

“We expect cow and bull slaughter to continue declining in 2025, with overall numbers down by about 300,000 head to 5.9 million head total. Feeder cattle and calf supplies outside of feedyards will also shrink by roughly 150,000 head, while cattle on feed inventories are starting the year slightly below 2024 levels at 11.9 million head,” according to Good. “With a tighter feeder cattle supply, placement pace will be more constrained, leading to a projected 700,000-head drop in commercial fed slaughter to 24.9 million. After modest growth in 2024, beef production is expected to decline by about 600 million pounds to 26.3 billion in 2025, ultimately reducing net beef supply per person by 0.8 pounds.”

Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer, forecasted the average 2025 fed steer price at $198/cwt., up $12/cwt. from 2024. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, and prices are expected to continue to trend upward. The 800-lb. steer price is expected to average $270/cwt., and the 550-lb. steer price is expected to average $340/cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $140/cwt., with bred cows at an average of $3,200/head.

“While the cyclical upswing in cattle prices is expected to persist, the industry must prepare for market volatility and potential risks,” Murphy says. “Producers are encouraged to adopt risk management strategies and closely monitor developments in trade policy, drought conditions, and consumer demand.”

As logic suggested, Cattle futures lost ground Monday, between likely technical correction, the weekend announcement from APHIS that Mexican cattle imports to the U.S. will resume this week and tariffs levied on Canada, Mexico and China, though Mexican tariffs are now postponed for a month.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.84 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $6-$7 higher in the Southern Plains at $208/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in in the North at $210. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher at $330.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 38¢ higher at $209.57/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered price was 45¢ lower at $329.07.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.31 higher Monday afternoon at $331.99/cwt. Select was $2.77 higher at $319.84.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Monday when announcement came that new Mexican tariffs were postponed for a month and perhaps some betting on a deal getting done with China.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher through Jly ‘26 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 16¢ higher through Mar ‘26 and then 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower as traders had a chance to react to the weekend’s tariff news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 122 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 235 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 7¢ to 63¢ higher through the front five contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides broader context to Friday’s Cattle inventory report, in bis weekly market comments.

For instance, the total cattle inventory of 86.7 million head Jan. 1 was down 0.6% year over year, which was 1.8% less than the recent cyclical low in 2014 and the least since 1951, according to Peel. He adds the inventory of cattle and calves has declined 8 million head (-8.5%) since the cyclical peak in 2019.

The beef cow herd Jan. 1 numbered 27.9 million head, which was 0.5% less year over year. That was 3.8% less than the previous low in 2014 and the fewest since 1961, according to Peel. He explains the beef cow herd is 3.8 million head fewer (-11.9%) since the recent peak in 2019.

Peel adds that the die is mostly cast for herd dynamics this year.

“The small inventory of beef heifers calving in 2025 (a part of the total beef replacement heifer inventory) suggests that little, if any, growth in the beef cow herd is likely. With bred heifers determined for the year, it will depend on cow culling,” Peel says. He explains, “The cow culling rate in 2024 dropped to 10.2% (from higher levels in 2021-2023), about equal to the previous twenty-year average.  Another year of sharp decrease in beef cow culling could lead to minimal herd growth but, lacking that, the cow herd could shrink a bit more this year.” 

Nationwide, calves and feeder cattle sold $3-$8/cwt. higher last week, with instances of $10-$15 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were 348,300 head reported at auction, direct and via video-internet, which was about 79,000 head more than the previous week and 3,000 head more than the same week last year.

Cattle futures bounced back Friday, buoyed by the week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and ahead of what turned out to be a generally neutral USDA Cattle report compared to expectations (see below).

Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ higher (12¢ higher at the front to $1.07 higher at the back). Week to week they were an average of 40¢ lower, except for an average of 3¢ higher in the back three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.40 higher. They were an average of 70¢ lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.  

For the week, FOB live prices were $6-$7 higher in the Southern Plains at $208/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $210, where dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher at $330.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $210-$212 in the western Corn belt, where dressed delivered prices were $330.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ higher Friday afternoon at $327.68/cwt. Select was $1.17 higher at $317.07. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 24¢ lower but Select was 78¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 600,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 2.7 million head was 266,000 head fewer (-9%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 2.3 billion pounds was 116.4 million pounds less (-4.7%).

Turning to the grain complex, grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday with week-end and month-end squaring and likely positioning ahead of the looming tariffs announced Saturday (see below).

Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower through May ’26 and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower.  

Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with trepidation over the U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 54 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 20¢ to 25¢ lower through the front five contracts.

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All cattle and calves in the United States Jan. 1 numbered 86.7 million head, according to USDA’s Cattle report. That was 492,200 head fewer (-0.6%) year over year.

There were 27.9 million beef cows, which were 149,500 head fewer (-0.5%). Beef replacement heifers of 4.7 million head were 45,900 head fewer (-0.1%).

Cattle grazing small grain pastures in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas number 1.6 million head, which was 35,000 fewer (-2.2%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures continued to correct lower Thursday, as wholesale beef prices continued lower and despite hefty gains in Southern Plains fed cattle prices. Keep in mind, the much-anticipated USDA Cattle inventory report will be released Friday afternoon.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.46 lower, except for $1.35 higher in expiring Jan.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on very good demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, with FOB live prices $6-$7 higher at $208/cwt., with a few up to $209 in Kansas.

Trade was slow on moderate demand in the North, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $330 and a few FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $210.

Last week, FOB live prices were $210-$212 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $328-$330 in Nebraska and $330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.06 lower Thursday afternoon at $327.48/cwt. Select was $4.77 lower at $315.90.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely profit taking ahead of President Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada this Saturday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 16¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday in a turbulent session amid mixed corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 168 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 49 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 46¢ to 56¢ higher through the front five contracts.