WLI

Cattle futures powered ahead Wednesday with little apparent explanation other than exuberant fund-buying and perhaps bullish positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Pre-report estimates peg the Jan. 1 feedlot inventory 0.2% lower year over year, December placements 1.8% higher and December marketings 1.3% higher.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.75 higher ($3.00 to $6.40 higher). Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.23 higher ($1.87 to $3.02 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand to mostly inactive on moderate demand through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with too few transactions to trend. Some early FOB live trade was noted in the Texas Panhandle at $202.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady in Kansas at $201/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $201 in the Texas Panhandle, $203-$205 in Nebraska and $203-$206 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices $322 in Nebraska and $320-$322 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 3¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $332.02/cwt. Select was $1.56 lower at $317.99.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 10¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday, buoyed by strong corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 37 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 252 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 43¢ lower to 2¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were pressured by stronger Corn futures, worries about cold-damaged winter wheat pasture in the Southern Plains and perhaps growing hesitancy related to the ultimate opening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle. Toward the close, they were down an average of $1.63 lower, except for 85¢ higher in spot Jan.

Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash trade. They were an average of 35¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 6¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $201/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand

Last week, FOB live prices were $201 in the Texas Panhandle, $203-$205 in Nebraska and $203-$206 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices $322 in Nebraska and $320-$322 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.11 lower Tuesday afternoon at $332.05/cwt. Select was 11¢ higher at $319.55.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, helped along by the drier South American weather outlook and more optimism regarding tariffs.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher.  Soybean futures were 24¢ to 33¢ higher.

Wheat futures gained on prospects of freeze damage in the Southern Plains. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were 25¢ to 26¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with investors perceiving a softer tone on tariffs by the new administration.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 40¢ to $1.79 lower  through the front six contracts.

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Total U.S. cattle inventory at the bottom of the last cattle cycle was a little more 88 million head and beef production was just over 24 billion pounds, according to Rob Ziegler, Extension specialist the University of Wyoming. He points out the total inventory last year numbered a little more than 87 million head at the beginning of the year and beef production neared 27 billion pounds, so about 3 billion more pounds with 1 million fewer head.

Spun another way, using information compiled the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), Ziegler explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, pounds of beef produced per cow increased by about 5.8 pounds each year from 1999 through 2024.

“Cheap feed grains, favorable weather conditions and strong values helped support carcass weights and overall beef production in 2024,” Ziegler explains. “Additional pounds of beef produced per cow over time is also likely an indication of how technologies improved the efficiency of beef production.”

Bottom line, along with considering this year’s beginning cattle inventory, Ziegler reminds to also keep in mind the impact of total beef production on the market.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201, unevenly steady in Nebraska at $203-$205 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $203-$206. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $322 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $320-$322.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Monday afternoon at $333.16/cwt. Select was 39¢ lower at $319.44.

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“Cattle and beef markets rocketed out of the gate coming into 2025,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “With no post-holiday wavering, all cattle and beef markets moved higher in the first half of January – setting new record price levels to start the new year. This continues the trend of the last three years. Cattle prices began to move higher after 2021 and increased more sharply in 2023-2024.”

Peel notes the 5-area direct average live fed steer price was $203.56/cwt. for the week ending Jan. 17. That was 17.3% more year over year and 85.9% more than in January 2021.

Similarly, the weekly Choice boxed beef price for mid-January was $333.51/cwt., according to Peel. That was 17.7% mor than the prior year and up 58.2% over 2021 levels. 

Closer to home, steers weighing 600-700 lbs. averaged $320.81/cwt. in the North Central region the week ending Jan. 13, according to USDA’s National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary. That was $56.58/cwt. higher year over year. Same-weight steers the same week were $54.54 higher (+22.7%) in the South Central region at $294.72 and $48.92 higher in the Southeast (+21.2%) at $279.68

“The strong cattle and beef price trend coming into 2025 is expected to continue as cattle inventories and beef supplies tighten further in the coming months,” Peel says. “However, while cattle and beef markets are very strong internally, external shocks from political uncertainty, along with U.S. and global macroeconomic jitters may cause short-term shocks and short-lived market setbacks. Volatility is likely to accompany a bullish market expectation.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to light to moderate on light to moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201, unevenly steady in Nebraska at $203-$205 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $203-$206. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $322 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $320-$322.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ higher Friday afternoon at $333.69/cwt. Select was 45¢ higher at $319.83. Week to week, Choice was 85¢ higher and Select was $5.69 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 603,000 head, which was 14,000 head more than the previous week but 2,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 1.5 million head was 219,000 head fewer (-12.9%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 1.3 billion pounds was 138.2 million pounds less (-9.7%).

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, perhaps with some positioning on the long weekend.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the front two contracts. Live Cattle futures closed from an average of 29¢ lower in six contracts to an average of 15¢ higher.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 lower, except for $1.15 higher in spot Jan. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.56 lower

Corn and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher through old-crop contracts on tighter stocks relative to demand, then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Week to week, they were an average of 12’4¢ higher through old-crop contracts; up an average of 33¢ over the past two weeks.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower on Friday. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ higher through near Aug, and then 1¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday with the week’s tamer inflation readings and positive early quarterly corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 334 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 291 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 20¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Fresh beef prices increased fractionally month to month in December but were about 2% less than the record highs in September, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“The All-Fresh average beef price for December was $8.078 per pound, according to USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS),” say LMIC analysts in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “This compares to $4.883 for average pork prices and $2.434 for chicken.”

All-Fresh beef price averaged $8.01 last year, up from $7.60 in 2023, according to LMIC. Pork prices averaged $4.87 in 2024 compared to $4.81 in 2023. Chicken prices in 2024 averaged $2.43, a slight decline from $2.46 in 2023.

“Ground beef prices were little changed during the last three months of the year, averaging $5.875 for the quarter and the December average at $5.863,” LMIC analysts explain. “Ground beef prices peaked for the year in September at $5.917. In December 2023, ground beef prices averaged $5.566.”

For perspective, steak prices averaged $10.626 per pound in December, down from $10.646 a year earlier.

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, with likely profit taking, technical resistance and perhaps reaction to chatter about when cattle imports from Mexico might resume.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with FOB live prices unevenly steady at $202-$205/cwt. and dressed delivered prices $2 higher at $322.

Trade was light to moderate on moderate to good demand in the western Corn Belt with FOB live prices steady to $3 higher at $203-$205. Dressed delivered prices last week were $320.

In the Southern Plains, trade was light on light demand with too few transactions to trend. For the week, dressed delivered prices are $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201 and steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $333.41/cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $319.38.

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, with likely profit taking, technical resistance and perhaps reaction to chatter about when cattle imports from Mexico might resume.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.36 lower.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 19¢ to 22¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 172 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 79¢ to $1.36 lower.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased forecast feeder steer prices for most of this year, in the January Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Compared to the previous month, ERS projected the average feeder steer price $3 higher in the first quarter at $268/cwt. and $2 in the second quarter at $272. The third-quarter projection was unchanged at $275. The forecast annual average price increased $1.25 to $273.25. Prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City.

As in the previous report, price projections assume the ongoing suspension of cattle imports from Mexico, since no date has been established for resumed trade.

ERS analysts explain, cattle have not been imported from Mexico since Nov. 22, which has limited feeder cattle typically available to feedlots in the Southern Plains. They say These feedlots are likely drawing down on supplies from other U.S. areas, boosting feeder calf prices.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $6 in the first quarter to $194/cwt., $5 in the second quarter to $194, $4 in the third quarter to $196, and by $5 for an annual average price of $196. Increase optimism stemmed from recent prices and continued strong beef demand.

“Wholesale beef prices finished 2024 on a strong note, carrying record beef prices into 2025,” ERS analysts say, explaining, “The strength of this wholesale beef price trend likely helped support record slaughter cattle prices through the holiday season.”