WLI

Negative outside markets and softer cash fed cattle prices helped pressure Cattle futures again Friday. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.09 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.30 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, Live FOB prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $181/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $181, $4 lower in Nebraska at $180 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $180-$183.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $288 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $286-$288.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon, at $309.41/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $296.12.

Estimated total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 542,000 was 69,000 head fewer than the previous week and 17,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.4 million head was 926,000 head fewer (-4.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 18 billion pounds was 216.2 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday amid pressure from lower outside markets and wonderments about next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower. However, Corn futures closed an average of 6’2¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week on Friday. That’s an average of about 15¢ higher in those contracts over the past two weeks.

On Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by bearish labor news.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 month to month in August, which was less than expected. In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by

14¢ to $35.21.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 410 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 436 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.46 to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply month to month in August, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108.

“Weakness in the barometer and related indices provide a signal that farmers are concerned about the possibility of extended weakness in farm incomes, similar to what took place from 2015 to 2019,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

August’s survey results indicate a shift among farmers’ primary concerns, with 30% of respondents identifying lower commodity prices as their primary concern, compared to 33% who cited high input costs. At the same time last year, 20% pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern.

“Farmers have also become less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years,” Mintert says. “The percentage of farmers who think farmland values could decline within the upcoming year has been rising, which is consistent with the weak outlook for financial conditions. The weak capital investment index reading suggests farmers are going to pull back on capital expenditures.”

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31, matching its all-time low.

The latest survey was conducted from Aug. 12-16, 2024.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices in the South and skittish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.64 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.23 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live FOB prices were $181/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle and $1-$2 lower in Kansas.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 9¢ lower Thursday afternoon, at $311.51/cwt. Select was $2.61 lower at $296.78.

Grain futures softened Thursday with likely farmer selling. Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 219 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed from 5¢ lower to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Exports of U.S. beef continued to build momentum in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

July beef exports totaled 110,419 metric tons (mt), up 7% from a year ago and the second largest of 2024. Export value climbed 12% to $910.9 million, also the second highest this year. July growth was fueled primarily by strengthening demand in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and the Middle East and ASEAN regions.

For January through July, beef export value increased 6% from a year ago to $6.13 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (754,152 mt).

“It is very gratifying to see demand for U.S. beef trending upward in Asian markets, with Japan and Taiwan leading the way and an outstanding showing in the ASEAN region,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “U.S. beef has weathered severe headwinds in Asia and especially in Japan, but the outlook for the remainder of the year is encouraging. July was also another impressive month for Mexico, which continues to display excellent demand for an expanding range of U.S. beef cuts and variety meats.”

Pork export volume was 10% more year over year in July. Pork export value was 13% higher at $710.5 million, fueled in part by a record $244.5 million for leading market Mexico.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower, except for an average of 24¢ higher in three contracts, with pressure from early cash weakness in the South.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 lower, pressured by lower Live Cattle and higher Corn.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Kansas to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Kansas at $180/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183 in the Texas Panhandle, $182-$183 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $183-$185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $288-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 93¢ higher Wednesday afternoon, at $311.60/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $299.39.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to rally Wednesday with likely short covering and thoughts forecast yield increases might be less than expected.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 16¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices wavered near steady Wednesday, following the previous session’s selloff tied to manufacturing weakness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.03 lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef x dairy production continues to increase as dairy producers use sexed semen to produce more replacement dairy heifers and beef semen on the rest of their herds to add market value to terminal calves. However, the relative contribution of dairy to domestic beef production remains static, says Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“The dairy herd is relatively stable and has only varied by 130,000 head, or 1.4%, from maximum to minimum in the last 10 years,” Peel explains. “The dairy industry contributes an average of roughly 26% of the total U.S. calf crop each year. The contribution of the dairy industry to beef production does not change significantly year to year although the relative share of dairy in beef production increases slightly when the beef industry declines cyclically. Growth in production of beef x dairy crossbred calves does not represent any net additional production of cattle but rather a change in the genetic composition of dairy calf production.”

Peel points out beef x dairy calves are included in commonly available cattle inventory and beef production data.

“Beef x dairy calf production is not having much impact on total beef production and market prices beyond what is already considered in market analysis,” Peel says. “There are some impacts in specific meat markets because the beef cuts from beef x dairy carcasses may have access to markets previously closed to dairy beef.  Arguably, the biggest impact of beef x dairy production is the blurring of the historical demarcation between beef and dairy sectors in the U.S.”

Cattle futures gained Friday as traders closed their book for the week and month. Support included firmer wholesale beef values and positive outside markets.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 87¢ higher.

Cattle futures also gained week to week. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.96 higher (47¢ higher at the back to $3.27 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt., $1 lower in Kansas at $182-$183, steady in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $183-$185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $288-$292. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $293-$295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 3,000 head more than the previous week but 20,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 20.9 million head was 910,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 17.6 billion pounds was 219.4 million pounds less (-1.2%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Friday afternoon, at $309.34/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $295.82.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 8’6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ‘25 on Friday and then mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, with support including the monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index coming in line with expectations. The PCE rose 0.2% month to month in July and increased 2.5% year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 197 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.58 to $2.36 lower through the front six contracts.

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Current feedlot inventories mask the continued decline in the domestic feeder cattle inventory, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

This year’s projected total calf crop of 33.12 million head would be 3.22 million head less than the cyclical peak in 2018, according to Peel. He adds this year;s total would be the least since about 1941.

Although the recent USDA Cattle on feed report pegged the August inventory slightly higher year over year, Peel says the 12-month moving average of feedlot inventories peaked in September 2022.

“Total feedlot placements have decreased by 1.3% in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12-month period,” Peel says. “However, in the last year, average feedlot inventories have increased to 11.64 million head. Feedlot inventories have risen countercyclically due to continued feeding of heifers and increased days on feed. Feedlots have slowed the feedlot turnover rate enough to keep average monthly inventories higher despite fewer cattle entering feedlots.”

Cattle futures were lower Thursday, pressured by steady to weaker cash fed cattle prices and the recent decline in wholesale beef values.  

Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.45 lower, except for $1 higher in expiring spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.28 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and steady at $184 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices are $1-$3 lower at $292.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 higher Thursday afternoon, at $308.66/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $296.19.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with traders apparently adding some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mainly 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with support including fewer week-to-week initial unemployment insurance claims.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Increased supplies, a strong dollar and several other factors have caused prices for many agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macroeconomy or policy, projected prices generally remain near current levels over the next five years,” according to the Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets from the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

“The cattle sector is the most important exception to the pattern of declining commodity prices,” according to FAPRI. “Past years of drought and low returns have resulted in a smaller U.S. beef cow herd, reducing beef production and pushing up prices for feeder and slaughter animals.”

FAPRI projects the U.S. beef cow herd declining to 28 million to begin 2025 and then growing slowly to 29.5 million in 2029.

Prices for steers (600-650 lbs., Oklahoma City) are projected at an average of $283.70/cwt. this year, rising to $289.65 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.

FAPRI forecasts the five-area direct average fed steer price at $187.95 this year, rising to $191.52 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.