WLI

Cattle futures weakened further Thursday sans weekly cash fed cattle direction and sluggish Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.66 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.84/cwt. Select was 60¢ lower at $277.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales that were 63% more than the previous week and 4% more than the prior-four-week average. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with apparent investor skittishness ahead of Friday’s national jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 34 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 12¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Given cow-calf profitability, hay production, hay prices and the current rates of beef cow and heifer slaughter, James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas expects to see a 1% decline in beef cow inventories this year.

In terms of profitability, Mitchell shares estimated cow-calf returns over cash costs provided by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“According to LMIC estimates, returns are projected at $622 per cow in 2024, making it the most profitable year on a nominal basis … surpassing the $534 per cow recorded in 2014,” Mitchell explains in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “However, comparisons are more meaningful when adjusted for inflation. When 2014 returns are converted to 2024 dollars, they equal $707 per cow, exceeding 2024 returns by $86 per cow.”

As for slaughter rates, beef cow slaughter — a measure of cow culling — is 18% less year over year, while heifer slaughter — a measure of heifer retention is 1.5% less, according to Mitchell.

“An important consideration is the slaughter rate relative to available supplies, rather than absolute cow and heifer slaughter numbers,” Mitchell says. “When viewed in this context, it becomes evident that the current slaughter rate has not yet reached a level signaling an increase in beef cow inventories. For example, in 2023 we slaughtered 12% of the beef cows that were available to slaughter as of January 1 (implied cull rate). In 2024, it looks like we will slaughter 10% of available beef cows. While this is an improvement, it still is not a low enough cull rate to signal an increase in beef cow numbers.”

Cattle futures tracked lower Wednesday as traders await the week’s cash fed cattle direction and Choice wholesale beef values struggle.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.46 lower.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.50 lower Wednesday afternoon at $308.33/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $277.70.

Grain and Soybean futures continued mixed again Wednesday with overall pressure including the strength of the U.S. dollar and uncertainty related to the coming shift in presidential administrations.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, fueled by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 308 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 254 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.03 to $1.19 lower through the front six contracts.

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Fewer available cattle and increased wheat pasture prospects are key drivers of recent calf price increases, according to David Anderson, Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M University,

“Lighter-weight, 400-500 pound calf prices have jumped about $30/cwt. in the Southern Plains over the last month,” Anderson explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Heavier 500-600 pound steers are up around $20 per cwt and 700-800 pound feeders are up about $80 per cwt over the same period in the Southern Plains. Seasonal lows in the calf market are in the rearview mirror for 2024. Calf prices do tend to increase, seasonally, in the late Fall.”

Anderson says, it’s too soon to say if the restriction on Mexican cattle imports is affecting cash prices on this side of the border.

“Price impacts will depend on how long import delays last,” Anderson says.

Cattle futures found some footing Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle as the CME Feeder Cattle Index continued to rise — up about $5 in the last two days.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.68 lower Tuesday afternoon at $309.33/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $275.33.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices mainly paddled water at and near record levels Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 76 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.50 to $1.88 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment increased month to month in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index climbed 30 points to a reading of 145, the highest level since May of 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index increased 18 points to 113.

Increased barometer readings reflect growing optimism about a more favorable regulatory and tax environment for agriculture following the U.S. election, according to barometer analysts.

The percentage of producers expecting their operation’s financial performance to improve over the next year climbed to 33%, up from 19% in October. Optimism about the U.S. agricultural sector also surged, with 34% of producers anticipating good times financially in the next 12 months, more than double October’s 15%.

To gain insight into how farmers’ sentiment might align with potential policy shifts following a change in presidential administrations, barometer surveys included several policy-related questions before and after the 2020 and 2024 elections.

In the wake of the 2024 election, farmers’ views on environmental regulations experienced a sharp reversal. In October, 41% of respondents anticipated a more restrictive regulatory environment over the next five years, while only 10% expected less restrictive regulations. However, the November survey saw a dramatic shift, with just 9% of surveyed farmers expecting stricter regulations and 55% predicting a more favorable, less restrictive regulatory landscape.

Similarly, 55% of respondents expected income tax rates to remain unchanged, compared to just 25% in 2020. Likewise, 57% of respondents in the November survey anticipated estate tax rates to stay the same over the next five years, a large increase from 28% in November 2020.

“While optimism is up, farmers are also expressing concerns about the potential risks to agricultural trade, with many fearing that a trade war could significantly impact U.S. exports,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Cattle futures softened Monday, led by Feeder Cattle, perhaps pressured by profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.31 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.49 higher Monday afternoon at $313.01/cwt. Select was $2.70 higher at $277.00.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the lion’s share of support centered on tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 185 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ to 18¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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With live cattle imports from Mexico to the United States expected to be suspended for at least three weeks — due to New World Screwworm — Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says more Mexican imports are unlikely this year.

“The lack of Mexican cattle imports for the remainder of the year will have some immediate impact reducing an already tight feeder supply. However, some of the feedlot impact is not immediate because a portion of the imported Mexican cattle are lightweight and typically go through stocker/backgrounding programs before feedlot placement,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “In the January – September period this year about 24% of the imported cattle were less than 200 kilograms (441 pounds). It’s important to remember that most of the cattle not imported for the remainder of the year will enter the U.S. eventually, just with a delay.”

Barring a prolonged border closure or permanent changes to import regulations, Peel says a change in timing with a short-term tightening of supply will be the primary impact on the domestic feeder cattle market.

For perspective, Peel says imports of cattle from Mexico to the U.S. were 21.3% more year over year through the first nine months of 2024, suggesting total imports for the year of about 1.5 million head. He adds that Mexican cattle imports represent 3.3% of the total U.S. calf crop on average. 

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, with week-to-week gains supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher. Week to week, they were an average of $4.60 higher; an average of $11.51 higher over the past two weeks.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ higher (2¢ to 75¢ higher), except for 2¢ lower in spot Dec. Week to week they were an average of $1.19 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Friday afternoon at $310.52/cwt. Select was unchanged at $274.30. Week to week, Choice was $3.11 higher and Select was up $2.23.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 28.7 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production was 110.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices ended the week and month on a positive note at the end of the holiday-shortened trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 51¢ lower to 72¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 15 points month to month in November to 50.2. That was the first time the RMI was above growth neutral since July 2023.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer.”

Among other RMI highlights…

• Farmland prices sank for the sixth time in the past seven months. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.7% over the next 12 months.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below-breakeven grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” according to Goss.

• The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016.

“This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.

• Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. However, the November confidence index increased to 46.4, its highest level since March 2022.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.